Am I the only one not overly worried about Covid19?

[Pen]

When I read here statements like, I am not worried about the virus, but I am worried about _____ violence, hoarding etc reactions, I don’t think I am “overly” concerned, however my concerns are about the whole situation, not merely the virus itself.  And the whole situation that concerns me includes how many people seem blasé about the whole thing, maybe even devil may care extra risk taking at this time, violating such quarantines as there are, etc. 

 

Edited March 8, 2020 by Pen

[Pen]

 

Today’s Dr John video - possibly of interest to you @Murphy101

[Murphy101]

32 minutes ago, Pen said:

 

Today’s Dr John video - possibly of interest to you @Murphy101

okay I watched the 20 minutes of him saying we need to be proactive. As we should be for flu anyways, but especially as this is worse than flu for over whelming medical facilities and infrastructure.

Okay. I never said we should pretend flu/sick season doesn’t exist.  But being proactive basicly means:

following excellent hygiene - check

staying home to avoid exposure/spread - Check

Take VitD. Check. (We also take multi vit + high dose vitC)

Be stocked up (but NOT hoarded!) to avoid social interaction/spread - check

Avoid medical facilities if possible - check

But know what signs mean it is critical to go in - check

There is literally nothing else we can do. And even if our country does what Italy is doing to their northern region, there’s still nothing more than the above that we can do. 

So knowing all that, I’m not going to worry over covid since there’s nothing I can do about it.  Being scared won’t keep my family healthier.

[Pen]

25 minutes ago, Murphy101 said:

okay I watched the 20 minutes of him saying we need to be proactive. As we should be for flu anyways, but especially as this is worse than flu for over whelming medical facilities and infrastructure.

Okay. I never said we should pretend flu/sick season doesn’t exist.  But being proactive basicly means:

following excellent hygiene - check

staying home to avoid exposure/spread - Check

Take VitD. Check. (We also take multi vit + high dose vitC)

Be stocked up (but NOT hoarded!) to avoid social interaction/spread - check

Avoid medical facilities if possible - check

But know what signs mean it is critical to go in - check

There is literally nothing else we can do. And even if our country does what Italy is doing to their northern region, there’s still nothing more than the above that we can do. 

So knowing all that, I’m not going to worry over covid since there’s nothing I can do about it.  Being scared won’t keep my family healthier.

 

Elective International travel?

[Murphy101]

46 minutes ago, Pen said:

 

Elective International travel?

I booked a trip for a week in May for dh and myself to Curacao.  I’m not going to cancel it yet because there’s no reason to. I’ll reevaluate that after Easter.  Regardless of flu/covid, if we are sick we will stay home and not fly to Curacao.

ETA: For clarity, this is not a cruise ship trip. I’ve always thought those were plague ships, and couldn’t understand the point of any ship that doesn’t get me in the ocean, so I’ve never felt inclined to go on a cruise trip.

Edited March 8, 2020 by Murphy101

[ktgrok]

28 minutes ago, Fifiruth said:

No, I think that the writer of your referenced article has it wrong. I’m getting my info from a virologist at the Mayo Clinic, Dr. Binnicker.

https://www.foxnews.com/health/coronavirus-compared-mayo-clinic-doctor-explains

 

 

No, the article I linked and the one you link both put H1N1 as way way less lethal than COVID 19.

Your link doesn't say that H1N1 had a 10% death rate, it says SARS had a 10% death rate. SARS is definitely something with a higher mortality rate than COVID 19, but COVID 19 is more contagious, which is why it has already outpaced SARS deaths. 

Regarding H1N1 the virologist gives stats that work out to a 0.075% fatality rate, which yes is higher than what I quoted as 0.02%, but still significantly less than COVID 19. (differences are due to how rates are calculated). He quotes stats for COVID 19, in comparison, which work out to a 3% death rate. :

So in 2009, the H1N1 influenza virus infected about 16 million people in the United States. And the CDC estimates that it contributed to the deaths of about 12,000 people in the US,” the virologist said. “And today, kind of in contrast, COVID-19 has infected about 100,000 thousand people worldwide and killed about 3,000 people worldwide.

 

Edited March 8, 2020 by Ktgrok

[Corraleno]

17 hours ago, Fifiruth said:

lI’m pleased to see that people have taken stock of their pantries, freezers, and supplies. Realizing that they don’t have enough to last 2-3 weeks, and buying what they need in order to fill in the gaps is necessary and expected. It helps to have more people self-reliant and prepared.

Government agencies are working hard, businesses and schools are doing what they need to do to keep people away from each other in order to slow or stop the spread of the virus. The good news this week is that the Ebola virus (50% death rate) outbreak is over after a lot of hard work. The Middle Eastern Respiratory Coronavirus (MER-CoV) with a 37% death rate, SARS with a 20% rate, and H1N1 Flu back in 2009 with a 10% death rate were all overcome with a lot of effort and global coordination and medical dedication. Thankfully, this virus is staying down in the 3-3.4% death-rate range. 

I’m pleased that the vast majority of Americans have pushed back against the media and politicians who have tried to sow panic and doom.   This is not the Spanish Flu nor the Black Death. It’s not like the economic crisis of 2008-2009. It’s not another Katrina, nor is it The Planet deciding to kill off people. I try to only listen to medical professionals who are level-headed and scientific in their approach to this. 

We can’t stay away from each other forever, so good sickness hygiene and disinfecting of spaces is going to continue and need to get better.

All of the 8 cases in my state resulted from contact with cruise ships or travelers to Italy.  The cruise ships are a huge source of infections. Assisted living homes are vulnerable. 

With each viral outbreak, we learn more about what to do. We will get through this.

ETA Some other posters have suggested that the 10% figure of the SARS outbreak is actually .01%. I got my (correct) info from an interview with a virologist, Dr. Binnicker, from the Mayo Clinic. Here is the link:  https://www.foxnews.com/health/coronavirus-compared-mayo-clinic-doctor-explains

 

 

You have contradicted yourself in this post — you originally claimed that the SARS death rate was 20% and H1N1 was 10%. When people pointed out that the death rate for H1N1 was nowhere near 10%, you disagreed and posted the following:

 

33 minutes ago, Fifiruth said:

No, I think that the writer of your referenced article has it wrong. I’m getting my info from a virologist at the Mayo Clinic, Dr. Binnicker.

https://www.foxnews.com/health/coronavirus-compared-mayo-clinic-doctor-explains

That article confirms that the figures in your original post for both SARS and H1N1 were wrong: SARS was 10%, not 20%, and H1N1  in the US was 0.075%. So, even taking the most conservative estimates for the death rate of Covid-19, it is vastly higher than that of H1N1.

Edited March 8, 2020 by Corraleno

[mlktwins]

27 minutes ago, Murphy101 said:

I booked a trip for a week in May for dh and myself to Curacao.  I’m not going to cancel it yet because there’s no reason to. I’ll reevaluate that after Easter.  Regardless of flu/covid, if we are sick we will stay home and not fly to Curacao.

I think it is great that you are planning a nice trip for you and your DH.  But...many people are getting infected on their trips and bringing it home.  All the people on the ships that now want to get home are going to be spreading it even more than it already is.  In Northern VA, we have 2 confirmed cases.  The Marine got it from being overseas on a business trip.  The other (an 80 year old) got it from a Nile River cruise where there are other known people that have tested positive.  I don't get why anyone thinks it is ok to travel anytime soon.  Yes, I know life goes on and I am still getting my kids to their high school classes, etc. but I think it is prudent for everyone to lie low as much as possible until we see where this thing goes in the next few weeks.  

[Murphy101]

13 minutes ago, mlktwins said:

I think it is great that you are planning a nice trip for you and your DH.  But...many people are getting infected on their trips and bringing it home.  All the people on the ships that now want to get home are going to be spreading it even more than it already is.  In Northern VA, we have 2 confirmed cases.  The Marine got it from being overseas on a business trip.  The other (an 80 year old) got it from a Nile River cruise where there are other known people that have tested positive.  I don't get why anyone thinks it is ok to travel anytime soon.  Yes, I know life goes on and I am still getting my kids to their high school classes, etc. but I think it is prudent for everyone to lie low as much as possible until we see where this thing goes in the next few weeks.  

It is more than 2 months from now. It’s not like I want to get sick or make my family sick or be gone while any of them are suffering serious illness or ruin a lovely vacation by going on it while sick. If I think any of those things are very likely closer to my vacation dates - then I will cancel or ask to reschedule it for later in the year.  4-6 weeks from now the entire covid situation could be completely different.

I’m also still hoping to take a trip with dh and one of my grown kids for 10-12 days to Italy in May of 2021.  Life may change that wishlist item over the next year but for now I’m still hoping to be able to go.

Edited March 8, 2020 by Murphy101

[Corraleno]

15 minutes ago, mlktwins said:

I think it is great that you are planning a nice trip for you and your DH.  But...many people are getting infected on their trips and bringing it home.  All the people on the ships that now want to get home are going to be spreading it even more than it already is.  In Northern VA, we have 2 confirmed cases.  The Marine got it from being overseas on a business trip.  The other (an 80 year old) got it from a Nile River cruise where there are other known people that have tested positive.  I don't get why anyone thinks it is ok to travel anytime soon.  Yes, I know life goes on and I am still getting my kids to their high school classes, etc. but I think it is prudent for everyone to lie low as much as possible until we see where this thing goes in the next few weeks.  

Unless someone is traveling to China or northern Italy or somewhere with a major cluster that CDC has a travel warning for, there's no real reason not to travel. We already have outbreaks all over the US; traveling to somewhere that has no cases, or fewer cases, is not much of a risk. I have multiple domestic flights booked in the next two weeks, 4 more booked in April, and an international trip planned for May. I will take reasonable precautions in airports and on airplanes, but I'm not going to become a hermit for the next year. I'm just as likely to catch something at Costco as I am on an airplane.

Edited March 8, 2020 by Corraleno

[BarbecueMom]

Well, criminals are getting concerned and taking extra precautions. The top headline on a local news station website was: “First Positive COVID-19 Case in Area”.

Right under that: “KFC Robbed at Gunpoint by Two Men in Surgical Masks and Latex Gloves”.  🙄

[Murphy101]

7 minutes ago, Dotwithaperiod said:

Our’s won’t refill cholesterol or blood pressure until 3 days before. I’d never use mail order because the snow plows run over my mailbox no matter that it’s in the place we were told to put it, and the mailman can’t get down our driveway much if the winter.

That makes me so mad. It can’t be all that uncommon for someone to need to travel or they get sick and can’t get to the pharmacy. So if only the week you can get it refilled before you will run is also the week you are required to be on an out of town business trip? Or you get the flu? 

The Canadian pharmacy we use sends out a weather notice that they will allow early orders to avoid snow or ice preventing people getting their meds in a timely manner. They do the same during The worst of summer too so that meds doing go bad in the heat despite being packed with ice.  Seriously. I happily sing the Canadian anthem.  My husband would be screwed without them for insulin. 

Edited March 8, 2020 by Murphy101

[Pen]

 

28 minutes ago, Corraleno said:

I'm just as likely to catch something at Costco as I am on an airplane.

 

Statistics to back that up? 

[Murphy101]

8 minutes ago, Pen said:

 

 

Statistics to back that up? 

Common sense backs it up. 

If viruses and bacteria don’t respect airport security, they sure don’t respect grocery stores more than airports.

But grocery stores are open air vs tightly confined sardine cans for humans with the same air mixing and being pumped back through the cabin.

There’s no way to maintain social distance in airports or on planes BUT there are a LOT more people at the grocery store and the chances that someone will go to them while sick or for sick people they have contact with us a lot higher. You are more or equally likely at the store than the airport because of the quantity of who is there and why. 

Edited March 8, 2020 by Murphy101

[Murphy101]

4 minutes ago, Æthelthryth the Texan said:

And just in case it needs to be stated- I am not overly concerned here now, or any time when it comes to generally going to places like Costco. I was just making a point on the Costco thing.  Once you have been paid to see these paths  and risks as your profession for  years, it just becomes second nature, which is why my husband makes fun of me. He sees cruise ships. I see norovirus. 😁And on it goes. I still shop at Costco though!  Just not right now because I don't need anything enough to deal with those crowds. I'll just wait. I'll pay overinflated prices if I need a roll of paper towels at HEB until sanity returns to Sam's and Costco. I figure people can't possibly afford to keep doing this in perpetuity and hopefully I can return and buy my preferred Sam's brand paper towels. 

I was at Costco yesterday and was bummed they were sold out of ltoilet paper.  I’ve got a weeks worth in stock but this is the payday where I’d already schedule buying 3 months of non-grocery items like tp, trash bags... They didn’t have any samples being given out. 

[mlktwins]

1 hour ago, Corraleno said:

Unless someone is traveling to China or northern Italy or somewhere with a major cluster that CDC has a travel warning for, there's no real reason not to travel. We already have outbreaks all over the US; traveling to somewhere that has no cases, or fewer cases, is not much of a risk. I have multiple domestic flights booked in the next two weeks, 4 more booked in April, and an international trip planned for May. I will take reasonable precautions in airports and on airplanes, but I'm not going to become a hermit for the next year. I'm just as likely to catch something at Costco as I am on an airplane.

I really do hope all your trips go off without a hitch!  I really do.  I also respectfully disagree that this is just a major issue in a few select countries.  I don't really care what anyone thinks of me, and I hope I'm wrong, but I think we are likely not far from being where Italy is today.  I'll be more than happy for people to say I told you so (you stupid idiot) if it doesn't happen.  And, at some point, I know my compassion for people that are now choosing to willingly travel (not just cruise ships, but that is a biggy right now) and get stuck somewhere in quarantine, is quickly going to dwindle.  I don't wish ANYONE to get sick or die from this.  But...knowing what is already happening out there and people willingly putting themselves in that situation, I will have a hard time hearing people $!%&@ and moan about it and their situation.  

I just found out my BIL is flying today to FL to go to some baseball spring training thing.  We will be keeping him away from his 93 year old parents for awhile when he returns.  Oh well!  My priority right now is mostly keeping my elderly father and my in-laws safe and alive through this.

And...I'm one of the weird ones that has stocked (not hoarded my pantry) and made sure my dad has food and supplies if I can't get to him.  I will also be lying low for a little bit to see how this all plays out.  To each their own.

I will bow out of this thread now as I belong more in the other thread anyway :-).

   

[Murphy101]

I don’t think you are stupid idiot for not wanting to plan on a trip 2 months from now. You don’t wanna, you shouldn’t do it.

🤷‍♀️

[mlktwins]

27 minutes ago, Murphy101 said:

I don’t think you are stupid idiot for not wanting to plan on a trip 2 months from now. You don’t wanna, you shouldn’t do it.

🤷‍♀️

Not stupid for not planning a trip -- LOL.  Stupid because I think we will be where Italy is before too long and it is going to get really bad here.  It's all good!  I'm glad I didn't plan the cruise I wanted to take during spring break because I would be cancelling that.  And I prepped.  It's all good :-).  Hope you get to take your trip and all is well by May!  

[Murphy101]

17 minutes ago, happysmileylady said:

News articles I saw said Costco decided on their own to not do the samples.  

I do agree that the local news (here too at least) is doing their best to bring on THE PANIC lol.  As far as I know, no one in my state has tested positive. 

 

Costco is completely sold out. I can’t even get it delivered. Amazon was out of some staple stuff too. Oh well. 

[Corraleno]

13 minutes ago, mlktwins said:

Not stupid for not planning a trip -- LOL.  Stupid because I think we will be where Italy is before too long and it is going to get really bad here.  It's all good!  I'm glad I didn't plan the cruise I wanted to take during spring break because I would be cancelling that.  And I prepped.  It's all good :-).  Hope you get to take your trip and all is well by May!  

If it gets as bad in the US as it is in northern Italy, then there will presumably be lock-downs and travel restrictions and I wouldn't be able to travel anyway. And of course if I were ill, or was in contact with someone who tested positive, I would self-quarantine, but unless the airlines impose travel restrictions or my trip in May is cancelled by the organizer, I'm going to continue to live my life as normal, with extra hand-washing and other reasonable precautions. 

[Terabith]

5 minutes ago, Æthelthryth the Texan said:

I'm going to go on record so anyone that wants can tell me I'm wrong later- but I think this Italy lock down is going to be a total cluster-f that's going to have people in Public Health Policy circles around the world studying it for years. It's going to be a "Case Study in How Not to Conduct a Quarantine."  There will be dissertations from Schools of Public Health written in bulk over this in the next five years, if not longer. Talk about inept. 

Can you say more about why?  Because they announced it in advance, allowing folks to get on trains out of the region?

[Ausmumof3]

2 hours ago, Corraleno said:

Unless someone is traveling to China or northern Italy or somewhere with a major cluster that CDC has a travel warning for, there's no real reason not to travel. We already have outbreaks all over the US; traveling to somewhere that has no cases, or fewer cases, is not much of a risk. I have multiple domestic flights booked in the next two weeks, 4 more booked in April, and an international trip planned for May. I will take reasonable precautions in airports and on airplanes, but I'm not going to become a hermit for the next year. I'm just as likely to catch something at Costco as I am on an airplane.

I tend to think that there are a handful of other countries of concern.  They have supposedly low cases but keep exporting them.  Egypt for example.  They actually just had a German tourist die of it.

[Ausmumof3]

4 hours ago, Murphy101 said:

okay I watched the 20 minutes of him saying we need to be proactive. As we should be for flu anyways, but especially as this is worse than flu for over whelming medical facilities and infrastructure.

Okay. I never said we should pretend flu/sick season doesn’t exist.  But being proactive basicly means:

following excellent hygiene - check

staying home to avoid exposure/spread - Check

Take VitD. Check. (We also take multi vit + high dose vitC)

Be stocked up (but NOT hoarded!) to avoid social interaction/spread - check

Avoid medical facilities if possible - check

But know what signs mean it is critical to go in - check

There is literally nothing else we can do. And even if our country does what Italy is doing to their northern region, there’s still nothing more than the above that we can do. 

So knowing all that, I’m not going to worry over covid since there’s nothing I can do about it.  Being scared won’t keep my family healthier.

I reckon what personally concerns me when people say no big deal is that people who definitely don’t have all the boxes checked like you do will hear that message and be blasé when they really need to hear the message that now is the time to start washing your hands and being prepared.  It’s good to be calm because you are already prepared.  Listening to the public health messaging here I get the feeling that they are now caught by their previous no big deal messaging and struggling to get people to treat it seriously.  Lol... and the toilet paper.  They keep having to remind people that stockpiling toilet paper is not the solution.

[Pen]

1 hour ago, mlktwins said:

I really do hope all your trips go off without a hitch!  I really do.  I also respectfully disagree that this is just a major issue in a few select countries.  I don't really care what anyone thinks of me, and I hope I'm wrong, but I think we are likely not far from being where Italy is today.  I'll be more than happy for people to say I told you so (you stupid idiot) if it doesn't happen.  And, at some point, I know my compassion for people that are now choosing to willingly travel (not just cruise ships, but that is a biggy right now) and get stuck somewhere in quarantine, is quickly going to dwindle. 

 

My compassion for people who may get into difficulties related to elective international travel arranged after January is all gone already.  

My compassion is especially gone for anyone who expects government (tax $$$) to bail them out of difficulties from such travel.  Which I hear a lot do expect that. 

I would far rather see tax $$$ going to sick workers (like in Hobart example) to help them be able to quarantine at home instead of going on with their jobs — and no more special funds to bailing out people, airlifting, quarantining at military bases etc people who are now choosing to travel for fun knowing there’s an increased risk at this time.  

I would rather see the $$$ go to supporting the medical system infrastructures.  

Helping with food, shelter etc for those who need that. 

Maybe helping Costco etc with sanitation if it (such places) is such a cesspool of contamination. 

 

But hey, “it’s a fee country”!   So people will do as they will do.  

 

Edited March 8, 2020 by Pen

[Pen]

At whoever said  ”it’s just common sense”  guess my “common sense” is not the same as yours .  Mine says it’s common sense that International travel increases disease spread more than shopping at a local Costco . 

 

And there may not be a ton of research. But there is some to support the idea that rapid international travel increases spread of infectious illnesses. 

Here is one I found. 

Article citations:

EID	Wilson ME. Travel and the Emergence of Infectious Diseases. Emerg Infect Dis. 1995;1(2):39-46. https://dx.doi.org/10.3201/eid0102.950201
AMA	Wilson ME. Travel and the Emergence of Infectious Diseases. Emerging Infectious Diseases. 1995;1(2):39-46. doi:10.3201/eid0102.950201.
APA	Wilson, M. E. (1995). Travel and the Emergence of Infectious Diseases. Emerging Infectious Diseases, 1(2), 39-46. https://dx.doi.org/10.3201/eid0102.950201.

 

Exerpt: 

 

“Mary E. Wilson 

Author affiliation: Harvard School of Public Health and Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts, USA

Member: Harvard Working Group on New and Resurgent Infectious Diseases.

 

Abstract

Travel is a potent force in the emergence of disease. Migration of humans has been the pathway for disseminating infectious diseases throughout recorded history and will continue to shape the emergence, frequency, and spread of infections in geographic areas and populations. The current volume, speed, and reach of travel are unprecedented. The consequences of travel extend beyond the traveler to the population visited and the ecosystem. When they travel, humans carry their genetic makeup, immunologic sequelae of past infections, cultural preferences, customs, and behavioral patterns. Microbes, animals, and other biologic life also accompany them. Today's massive movement of humans and materials sets the stage for mixing diverse genetic pools at rates and in combinations previously unknown. Concomitant changes in the environment, climate, technology, land use, human behavior, and demographics converge to favor the emergence of infectious diseases caused by a broad range of organisms in humans, as well as in plants and animals.

Many factors contribute to the emergence of infectious diseases. Those frequently identified include microbial adaptation and change, human demographics and behavior, environmental changes, technology and economic development, breakdown in public health measures and surveillance, and international travel and commerce (1-4). This paper will examine the pivotal role of global travel and movement of biologic life in the emergence of infectious diseases. It will also examine the ways in which travel and movement are inextricably tied at multiple levels to other processes that influence the emergence of disease.

Travel is a potent force in disease emergence and spread (5). The current volume, speed, and reach of travel are unprecedented. The consequences of migration extend beyond the traveler to the population visited and the ecosystem (6)

...”

 

[Murphy101]

7 minutes ago, Pen said:

 

My compassion for people who may get into difficulties related to elective international travel arranged after January is all gone already.  

My compassion is especially gone for anyone who expects government (tax $$$) to bail them out of difficulties from such travel.  Which I hear a lot do expect that. 

I would far rather see tax $$$ going to sick workers (like in Hobart example) to help them be able to quarantine at home instead of going on with their jobs — and no more special funds to bailing out people, airlifting, quarantining at military bases etc people who are now choosing to travel for fun knowing there’s an increased risk at this time.  

I would rather see the $$$ go to supporting the medical system infrastructures.  

Helping with food, shelter etc for those who need that. 

Maybe helping Costco etc with sanitation if it (such places) is such a cesspool of contamination. 

 

But hey, “it’s a fee country”!   So people will do as they will do.  

 

That’s .... something.   I hope you feel better for your lack of compassion for everyone who hasn’t decided to give up all hope for a humanity post Covid19.

As for me, I don’t have to dig very deep for a bit more compassion and hope.  I think I’m going to die a happier person for it, whenever that might be, and I know I’m going to live a happier person for it.

But if you think your stance somehow makes a difference in health or community than mine - then I sincerely hope you find comfort in it. 

[Paige]

It is not true that the only thing we can do is stock up and wash our hands. As individuals we can begin practicing social distancing before being ordered to do so. This may be the key difference between cities that are hit hard and ones that aren't.

I saw this article last night about the Spanish Flu, and it said cities who were proactive rather than reactive had lower mortality rates. Of course there were outliers, but the correlation was strong. Also, cities who backed off of their isolationist policies early tended to experience 2 peaks vs those who did not. We don't want to wait until it is obviously a problem, we want to see the potential risk and head it off before people start becoming sick. We don't want to be the people saying- Why close schools when we only have 2 cases, and then ending up closing them when there's 100 known cases. We want to be citizens who support elected officials to make the proactive, hard choices that save lives. 

Right now, the flu does cause more deaths but we want to keep it that way! We'd also lower this year's flu risk with the same policies. 

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/208354

[ScoutTN]

Concerned, yes, of course. Crazy tp-hoarding etc., no. Not going to tie myself up in knots about something I cannot control, nor spend lots of time trying to sift solid facts from hype. Just doing the next thing.

We are living in a hotel right now and have limited ability to prep. We do follow good hygiene practices and would stay home if we were sick.

When we are back in our home (soon!), I will double check my cold medicines, basic household supplies and staple food items. We live in a very small house with zero extended storage, so no Costco stockpiling for us. No extra fridge or freezer, teeny pantry. 

My mom is 84 and lives in an assisted living residence. They have a communicable disease outbreak plan and have reviewed it with the residents.

My kids' school and tutorial are small and would simply go to live online classes, hw turned in digitally etc. 

None of my family has any way to get ahead on prescription medications. 

We are doing what we can and living our lives normally at this point. There is one confirmed case in our area. We'll make trajectory adjustments as necessary. 

We don't have any spring travel plans beyond an AHG camping trip in late April and monthly Scout camping for ds, all in our local area. We do have some events that I would be be terribly sad to see cancelled, but they are still months away and again, I am not going to worry about things I can't control. Take sensible precautions, yes. Pray, yes. Stress out, no. 

 

Edited March 8, 2020 by ScoutTN

[SKL]

I'm wondering at what point we switch from "hope we don't get exposed/catch it" to "people living normal lives can't avoid exposure, so let's focus on protecting those who are most at risk given exposure."

I'm not trying to catch it, but honestly, my bigger concern is everyone being quarantined for weeks.  At some point that is just not feasible.  At some point maybe it makes more sense for the people at highest risk (elderly, those with health problems) to isolate themselves until the majority of the risk passes.  Sounds to me like most of them are doing this anyway.

[Pen]

29 minutes ago, Æthelthryth the Texan said:

Well, I can point out the following so far (assuming the media coverage is correct- I'm reading WSJ fwiw). I'm was never a public policy wonk, but some of this is pretty rudimentary public health. 

1.  Judging by the reactions of local governance, they didn't inform local governance before announcing it. This is spectacularly stupid. Everything else is going to be downhill, and much harder to rein in from there. 

2. Without point 1, you have no collaborative effort, no synched messaging which is a pretty essential and needed Public Health 101 sort of thing, no coordination of resources. And worse yet, utter confusion between local areas which only compounds things. Confusion among the officials is very, very bad. Even if they are pretending to have it all together, that is a lot better than just everyone pointing fingers and yelling about how no one told them and on and on and on. You're supposed to inspire confidence. (Even if it's false tbh.) You are supposed to have a common message. Confusion looks like incompetency which leads to: 

3. 1+2= Mass Panic. Since they didn't do 1&2 you can't contain anything, which is pretty much the point of the quarantine. This begs the question: what was the point without adequate planning? And if they couldn't even plan messaging, how on earth have they planned logistics?  So then everyone panics (perhaps rightfully with the glorious level of ineptitude on display there right now), because no one wants to be trapped- let's be honest about that.

And then you have people do what you mentioned- everyone jumped on planes and trains and in all likelihood traveled out of areas they normally would not have- at least in the immediate future- which even more so defeats the purpose. They basically inspired people to expand outward from the affected areas into previously un-affected areas (to their knowledge). Had everyone just calmed the heck down and gotten on the same page, this could have gone a lot differently. Voluntary restrictions are typically going to trump involuntary ones. And if you are going to do involuntary restricting, you damn skippy better have the elements in place to do so. Which leads to: 

4. I'll be frank on this one- unless you are ready to enforce quarantine boundaries at gunpoint (and have the enforcement personages to do so) when you say things like "You cannot leave this area," it's really hard to enforce quarantines at this level of coverage. Although to be frank- I'm not exactly sure what their intended level of quarantine is, and. don't think they do either, which goes back to point 1. 

Generally,  it is easier to quarantine ill people and/or at risk people somewhere than the great big whole population of a large amount of square kilometers at once. Let the regular non-high risk pop do their thing and start with the highest risk populations. I don't know Italian law, or politics or anything else, so I don't know how far they will go to enforce it- physical threat? Jail time? (Then talk about more issues- diseases in jails) or if they'll go all China on their population because China absolutely WILL, have in the past, and did again this time hold people at gunpoint if not worse. I do not think people in the US at least who are all "Yay-China did so great, we should be doing that!" have any clue whatsoever about the totalitarian methods you have to pull out to get a zillion people into quarantine and keep them there. And once that totalitarian power is in place......good luck with that. My heart goes out to the people in China. 

As a side note, I am perplexed by people in our country who are very distrustful of certain members of the Federal Government, yet are right now screaming that the Federal Government should be doing these types of Quarantines. That makes no logical sense to entrust someone/pwers you don't trust with a super-abundanant, constitutionally violating level of control and power. But that's probably a different topic......noteworthy though back in the Ebola situation, there was a nurse who violated the quarantine and was applauded by the press for standing up for her liberties. It's interesting the song they are singing now. 

Anyway, for those reasons just to start, I think widespread, extreme quarantines of "no one can travel, you must stay in your house, XYZ" with viruses like this one don't typically work in mass population groups  because you can't really enforce them unless you are Russia or China (and probably not even totally then.) I just don't see Italy having the infrastructure to carry this out- and maybe their intent was different than what got filtered out in the media? I don't know. They work much better in small, targeting clusters. 

But you definitely need precision, a common message, coordination between governances and things like that to even try and limit gatherings etc. Limiting public gatherings and spaces is a bit different than trying to lock down entire sections of a populous if that makes sense. Once is a lot more doable than another. They went big and I think they messed up. Maybe they will surprise us and pull it off, but from the looks of it, I'm doubting it. 

On a side note, my biggest mystery in all of this so far is why the hell doesn't India have sky high case numbers over anywhere else? (and if Iran can test, don't tell me India can't). I'd like to know more to that story. 

 

 

 

In re India question: There may be much more  we don’t know about.  

OTOH,

There were some posts on Internet (can’t recall where) that Indians think they may be less susceptible due to different preponderant ACE2 systems in Indian populations.   Idk. I hope they don’t rely on some feeling of invulnerability, because I’m sure they aren’t invulnerable. 

 

Edited March 8, 2020 by Pen

[alewife]

2 hours ago, mlktwins said:

I am also in the camp of going about our daily life while being prepared in case we need to stay in for a few weeks.

My husband and I flew to Florida and are now at Club Med   I don’t think my odds of being infected here are any greater than they would be had we stayed home and went about our daily life

  I tutor kids every day. Since December, some of my students have travelled to China for the Chinese New Year , others have gone skiing in Italy, and others have just arrived back from France.    

I don’t think any place in the country is safe...it’s just that we haven’t been able to test enough to expose the real numbers  anywhere  

(I am on my phone and don’t know how mlktwins box appeared Or how to delete it  )

[Corraleno]

2 minutes ago, Pen said:

At whoever said  ”it’s just common sense”  guess my “common sense” is not the same as yours .  Mine says it’s common sense that International travel increases disease spread more than shopping at a local Costco . 

And there may not be a ton of research. But there is some to support the idea that rapid international travel increases spread of infectious illnesses. 

Of course travel is one factor in the spread of disease, especially if traveling from a country with an active outbreak to a country with no known cases. That is how it got into the US to begin with. However, once it becomes widespread within a country, why would traveling from one endemic area to another endemic area carry vastly higher risk of contracting the disease than intracommunity transmission? People still travel during cold and flu season, because those viruses are everywhere so there's no point in refusing to travel unless you also refuse to grocery shop, attend church, go to school, etc. 

I happen to live in an area with multiple confirmed cases, some of which are in the exact community where my nearest Costco is located. Tomorrow I am flying to state with no confirmed cases, so in my particular case I am statistically at least as likely, if not more, to catch Covid-19 from my local Costco, where thousands of people touch, sneeze, and cough on things every day, and where I have to touch and handle multiple products, as I am sitting on a plane for a few hours where I can wipe down the few things I actually have to touch (and I don't bring my tray table or seat belt home with me, unlike Costco products).

Unless I am ill, or have contact with someone who is, I am not going to live like a hermit for the next year or more. Do people think this is going to just blow over in a couple of months, and if they barely leave the house for 8 weeks, then life will return to normal? The window of opportunity for containment is long past, and from what I've read, Covid-19 is expected to become an established, endemic virus just like influenza, norovirus, etc. Once people get past this initial totally over-the-top, toilet-paper-hoarding panic, life will presumably get back to normal and people will go back to flying, shopping, going to sports events, etc. — hopefully with more attention to hand washing and other precautions they should have been following all along anyway.

[importswim]

I'm not worried about the virus. I AM worried about DH's job: He's an airline pilot. If people aren't traveling that's not good for his job security.

I'm already assuming that we'll get Covid19. I have a hurricane supply kit (we live in FL) so already have food/water/everything we'll need for a small amount of time. If I didn't I'd probably pick up some things in my regular shop. 

[Ausmumof3]

7 hours ago, Æthelthryth the Texan said:

I've missed most of this, so I apologize if this is redundant- but I will say one of the only things I am doing differently is switching all hand towels to paper towels in the house (this is normal flu season precaution anyway) and while I normally avoided them anyway, now I am extra avoidant of hand dryers in public restrooms. They are bad on a good day, so no thanks- I'll air dry my hands or wipe them on my pants over using a hand dryer. I really wish most places would ban them. They are such germ factories on the best of circumstances. 

I also will not be re-using towels in hotel rooms on travel trips. They can do some extra laundry- not a time to try and be eco-conscious. Get clean towels, especially hand towels every day while traveling (or buy some paper towels for your room) . At least my .02. And nope on reusable grocery bags too at the grocer- stores need to ban them being brought in during this time. They didn't think that one through all the way from the get go......imo. #LovingSingleUseProducts right now. 

For a different perspective on bags a post from some science guy (can’t remember what his qualifications were) mentioned that natural surfaces like fabric and wood tend to break up and kill the virus quite quickly whereas it can live happily in plastic.  So cloth bags may actually be safer than the disposable bags that are sitting in the store and being touched repeatedly by a cashier who is interacting with heaps of people.  

[Pawz4me]

16 minutes ago, kand said:

I don't know if people can't picture what it would mean for our system to be overwhelmed, or that they don't think it will happen, or what, but that is the part of this that I am most worried about. Not the virus itself, but the breakdown in our system and society if this is allowed to grow without trying to slow it down. That's the part that is scary to me.

 

I don't know either, but I totally agree.

[prairiewindmomma]

I'm resigned to the fact that we are all going to get this.  Probably sooner rather than later since my dh and sons go out the door into a community with the virus every dang day.  And I'm fairly resigned at this point to the reality that when I get this my kids will probably be mildly ill and I will probably not be mildly ill.  And, looking at the statistics, if I'm in that 15% of people who need hospitalization (likely, given past history), I'm also likely not going to have a hospital bed available to me unless they triage care by age range when I do the breakdown of math. There just aren't that many beds available. So, life marches on.  I've put my affairs in order. I'm taking my vitamins and medications, and I've made sure my nebulizer is in good working order. I'm self-isolating to reduce my exposure.

I'm not panicking. Life is marching on. I'm in that worried but not overly worried camp? 

[ktgrok]

2 hours ago, Æthelthryth the Texan said:

What gets me on the social distancing (dear Lord, what a sanitized term) is generally in severe times of stress, people need each other more than ever. They need their support system. Now, I can understand not shaking hands at a business dinner or something right now if one is so compelled etc., but it has it's limits. One person elevator rides in high rises? No buses. No subways? 

Is this going to turn into people saying "oh we should stay X many meters from friends and family, sorry Mom but I can't hug you right now"?

 

My DH didn't hug my mom yesterday when we visited, just because he'd been in a hotel the few days before and although there are no known cases in the city he was in, he still felt that was wise given she is at higher risk. he kept his distance, we all washed hands, etc. She was very appreciative of that. 

1 hour ago, StellaM said:

 

 

(I wish they'd cancel the buses here. Germ traps. I have to ride them every day. If they were cancelled, I'd have to stay home from work, and work would have to pay me. Win for my health!)

 

But a lot of people can't work from home - food servers, janitors, whatever. They can't afford to just not work if the bus gets cancelled, but what else can they do? Not pay the rent?

Those of us who can avoid the bus though, should. That would help. 

Edited March 9, 2020 by Ktgrok

[mlktwins]

2 hours ago, alewife said:

(I am on my phone and don’t know how mlktwins box appeared Or how to delete it  )

No worries 😊!

[EmseB]

For a lot of reasons I don't think what happened in Wuhan or what's happening in Italy will happen here. Will local healthcare systems be stressed? Yes. But there are so many factors and differences in our health care systems, demographics, etc. I don't think people grasp how awful Chinese medical systems are, or that Italy's isn't that great either and their population is older than ours for the most part.

When the H1N1 pandemic occurred in 2009 no one declared an emergency until 1,000 people already died from it here in the US. Something like 60,000,000 people got it. Yes, covid is a different animal, my point is that there is a certain element to this that is induced by a complete firehose of highly complex medical data and information being consumed by the general public that can't digest it properly. I know I can't!! I think that involves people who don't know health systems, infectious disease, epidemiology, etc., gathering info from everywhere on the net and trying to extrapolate to some sort of educated conclusion. I saw a viral thread on Twitter with a food science engineer talking about "back of the napkin" calculations of what would happen based on cases doubling every six days and people taking it as gospel. People reading headlines about hospital beds and not understanding how a hospital system can flex for something like a really bad season of illness. That sort of thing is scary to me because it induces panic.

That said, now it's my turn, lol. My personal theory is that a lot of people have gotten covid and it has been circulating in the US for awhile and stressing some community health systems already. At least since December. A lot of people have gotten it and recovered. Some have gotten it and docs couldn't diagnose when they ran respiratory panels. There are a lot of influenza like illnesses floating around and some people get pneumonia and can't recover. It is not nothing but I think it's been happening and mass testing is likely to induce more panic because of a rapid rise in confirmed cases. I think it's worth it to tell people this is serious, if you have trouble breathing get seen. Wash your hands. Get your flu shot to reduce the overall burden on the system. But threatening with Wuhan like conditions and people dying in the streets isn't helpful or super realistic, IMO.

I am worried about catching this. I'm worried about elderly relatives catching it especially.  I'm not not caring. But I am also worried about inducing panic and anxiety that results in people being isolated, abandoned, and without resources unnecessarily.

[Corraleno]

55 minutes ago, kand said:

Again, taking more serious measures now--mostly with avoiding groups and cancelling large events, etc, can absolutely make the difference in where we are with this in a couple months. We can't contain, but we can slow it down so our system is not overwhelmed. I don't know if people can't picture what it would mean for our system to be overwhelmed, or that they don't think it will happen, or what, but that is the part of this that I am most worried about. Not the virus itself, but the breakdown in our system and society if this is allowed to grow without trying to slow it down. That's the part that is scary to me.

In what way does this contradict anything I said? If the government decides that shutting down all commercial air traffic is necessary for controlling the virus, then obviously I won't fly. If I'm notified that I'm in a contact chain with someone who tested positive, I will cancel my plans and self-quarantine. If all grocery stores in my area are shut down and we are put on delivery-only service, like they did in Wuhan, then I will stop going to grocery stores. But at this point in time there is absolutely no reason to think that having 1 less person on a Southwest flight tomorrow would in any way serve to slow transmission of this virus, so I am not going to cancel my plans and hide out at home while everyone around me continues to rub shoulders in Costco while buying a years worth of TP, all schools and colleges continue to operate as normal, all events are going ahead as planned, etc. If it makes some people feel safer and less anxious to hunker down in their homes and rarely leave, then they should do what they need to do to alleviate their own anxiety. But shutting down the entire economy to prevent the spread of a disease that will almost certainly become endemic anyway is going to cause more harm than good. I agree with SKL that those who are at high risk should avoid situations that increase their risk, but there's just no way that 330 million people are going to all stay home to prevent the spread. 

[lynn]

I am not worried for us but my Navy kid, yeah.  He and his girlfriend spent a few days in Seattle a few weeks ago.  He's stationed West of Seattle and as far as we know he will be deployed very soon to Japan with a few weeks stop over in the Philippines staying in a Marriott not on base.  So the does have me worried for him.

[Ausmumof3]

49 minutes ago, StellaM said:

I agree with those who are talking about measures to slow down the spread, that reducing the speed of spread is as - if not more! - important than reducing the spread itself.

Having spent a summer visiting ICU in our major teaching hospital (so well equipped by comparison with smaller or more rural hospitals), I feel a distinct lack of confidence about how the system will cope with a rapid spread. Nothing to do with the staff, who are generally amazing, but just the sense that even in normal times, hospitals only just about manage.

But if social distancing doesn't slow spread? what does?

Will appreciate any answers. Just trying to keep well, and keep dd and her dad well.

China is showing definite slow down and South Korea may be as well.  Singapore’s careful contact tracing seems to be working.  I don’t get why we are throwing our hands up.  We’re not going to do China but we can’t afford to do nothing 

[ktgrok]

15 minutes ago, happysmileylady said:

have a question about "high risk populations."  

Given the symptoms of this (cough, fever, shortness of breath) aren't those populations *already at high risk* this time of year?  I mean these high risk populations are more likely to die of CV19 than I or my kids are.  BUT....is this more likely to be deadly to those high risk populations than the flu or other diseases that immunosuppressed populations are at risk of?   If an 80 yr old catches this, is it more likely to be deadly than if she catches influenza?  Other than the fact that it's currently a new virus that no one in the high risk population has any sort of immunity to, is it way more dangerous to these people than any of the other diseases that could kill them?

Well, we know that it is significantly more deadly based on the stats we have so far. I think people have quoted the stats numerous times now but basically, flu has a fatality rate of about 0.1 percent, this is at least 10 times that,  possibly 20 or 30 times that. And of course, there is no vaccine for it like there is for the flu. 

Edited March 9, 2020 by Ktgrok

[EmseB]

7 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

China is showing definite slow down and South Korea may be as well.  Singapore’s careful contact tracing seems to be working.  I don’t get why we are throwing our hands up.  We’re not going to do China but we can’t afford to do nothing 

I don't honestly understand how this would work here in the US. Contract tracing is fine for a small number of cases, but if you have unknown community spread? Mass testing is only valuable as a glimpse, IMO, because I could be tested negative today and catch it 3 days from now in another state if I travel or if someone travels to me.

[Pen]

2 hours ago, kand said:

I don't think anyone is suggesting everyone be quarantined (other than those who are known to have it or to have had exposure to someone diagnosed). I feel like a lot of people are ignoring or not understanding the message being that other measures--particularly the social distancing measures are things that can have a HUGE impact on how this all plays out. It may mean the difference between this taking off at such a rate that our hospitals are completely overwhelmed and people are dying on the sidewalks waiting to get into a hospital and flattening the curve of the epidemic such that it takes much longer to reach the peak, but that peak is much lower, so that our healthcare system is able to keep up (and to have time to ramp up and build even more capacity, and maybe even to learn some things that will help outcomes improve as this progresses). So many seem to just want to throw up their hands and say, "Oh, well. We're all going to get it anyway, so what's the point in doing anything beyond washing our hands?" I don't get that. Do people think we're so special here that what happened in Wuhan couldn't happen here? That what's currently happening in Italy won't happen here? Or that it isn't worth taking measures to make it not so bad? I'd much rather us be a Japan or Singapore right now than a China or Italy.

I'm sorry too, but I'm a bit blown away that someone with Public Health knowledge would have this attitude. I think it's far more compassionate to the homeless and others at risk for those of us who can to do the things we can to prevent this from becoming out of control. They will suffer even more than most of us will if it comes to that. A few weeks or months of limiting some of the things we like to do in the interest of the greater public health, and especially the health of the older or more compromised among us seems the opposite of self-absorbed to me. It seems self-absorbed for people to refuse to alter their lives and routines even though it would likely prevent thousands of deaths at a minimum. It doesn't mean that no one can never touch another person. I don't think people are in bubble suits in their homes, reading bedtime stories to their kids through a pane of glass. People should still do all the usual things with their families they usually would--unless someone starts showing symptoms of illness. But the data is pretty clear that reducing or eliminating large gatherings, including closing schools, can play a huge part in whether we are able to handle this or not. We need to come up with some quick solutions to how to help out those who can not afford to not go to work.

I thought this was a great article from the WHO about some of the things China did right in fighting this. I hope we can take from the things they did right, and discard the things they didn't (like the extreme lockdown stuff): https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/03/08/813401722/who-official-says-coronavirus-containment-remains-possible

I read another good one a couple days ago as well, but can't find it right now.

Again, taking more serious measures now--mostly with avoiding groups and cancelling large events, etc, can absolutely make the difference in where we are with this in a couple months. We can't contain, but we can slow it down so our system is not overwhelmed. I don't know if people can't picture what it would mean for our system to be overwhelmed, or that they don't think it will happen, or what, but that is the part of this that I am most worried about. Not the virus itself, but the breakdown in our system and society if this is allowed to grow without trying to slow it down. That's the part that is scary to me.

Here's the goal:

 

I think people don’t understand the math, don’t understand the concept of why slowing down rate of spread is so important, and/or don’t understand that social distancing doesn’t mean one’s children can’t get a hug, or don’t understand that the more social distancing is done early, the less severe the epidemic is likely to be—and thus the sooner the return to relative normalcy is likely.    That’s my best and kindest explanation to myself.

 

[Pen]

13 minutes ago, EmseB said:

I don't honestly understand how this would work here in the US. Contract tracing is fine for a small number of cases, but if you have unknown community spread? Mass testing is only valuable as a glimpse, IMO, because I could be tested negative today and catch it 3 days from now in another state if I travel or if someone travels to me.

 

 

Which is why there should be less elective non necessary travel 😉

[Terabith]

Just now, happysmileylady said:

Right now, as I understand it, we know that the overall fatality rate is like 2 or 3 times that of the flu.  BUT, as I understand it.....that includes ALL populations....high risk or not, correct?  What I am asking is if the danger to the populations that are at high risk is greater for this than for other diseases.  Like, for example, is an 85 yr old as likely to die from the flu....*IF* they catch the flu....as they are do die from this....*IF* they catch this.  

 

I don't know if stats go that deep on this right now or not.

Yes.  The danger to high risk populations is about 10-20 times more than the danger of seasonal influenza.  No, they aren't as likely to die from the flu (if they catch it) than they are to die from this (if they catch it).  

The fatality rate is not 2 or 3 times that of flu.  It's 10-30 times greater.  

[Pen]

9 minutes ago, happysmileylady said:

Right now, as I understand it, we know that the overall fatality rate is like 2 or 3 times that of the flu.  BUT, as I understand it.....that includes ALL populations....high risk or not, correct?  What I am asking is if the danger to the populations that are at high risk is greater for this than for other diseases.  Like, for example, is an 85 yr old as likely to die from the flu....*IF* they catch the flu....as they are do die from this....*IF* they catch this.  

 

I don't know if stats go that deep on this right now or not.

 

Check your Math. Or the math of whomever you are relying on

 

~ .1  %  Cfr for flu

1 to 3.5 % cfr for CV19

.1 X 10 = 1

.1 x 35 = 3.5

 

or for a more middle of road cfr for CV19 of 2.3,  lower than WHO  mortality rate estimate, see screen shot below. 

that’s 23 times the cFr as for most influenzas! 

Or 34 times the mortality rate using the March 3 WHO figure.

(and what is even worse is the overwhelming 10-20% of cases needing hospital support, and ~ 5% needing ICU support.  )

 

 

Edited March 9, 2020 by Pen

[Jean in Newcastle]

I am self isolating right now. I am on the start of week three of a respiratory thing that is not going away. No fever. No cough. But so tired and out of breath and feel like crap. I won’t be tested with those symptoms so I am going to look out for myself because no one else will.

The advice here from the government is to look out for ourselves and I think that ultimately that is the best advice. If I couldn’t hunker down I would be masked (I have them from previous years) and would be washing hands after touching surfaces and not touching my face until I could do so. 
 

My reasoning behind my self quarantine is that even if I have some other kind of virus, I am most certainly not in a position to add anything else for my body to deal with. And I want to avoid hospitals at all costs. 

[Paige]

33 minutes ago, happysmileylady said:

have a question about "high risk populations."  

Given the symptoms of this (cough, fever, shortness of breath) aren't those populations *already at high risk* this time of year?  I mean these high risk populations are more likely to die of CV19 than I or my kids are.  BUT....is this more likely to be deadly to those high risk populations than the flu or other diseases that immunosuppressed populations are at risk of?   If an 80 yr old catches this, is it more likely to be deadly than if she catches influenza?  Other than the fact that it's currently a new virus that no one in the high risk population has any sort of immunity to, is it way more dangerous to these people than any of the other diseases that could kill them?

Short answer, yes. Flu mortality rate for over 65 is about .83%, covid is 14.8. That’s without even parsing it out by preexisting condition. https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-compared-to-flu-mortality-rates-2020-3%3Famp

My dad is extremely high risk for covid but is otherwise very healthy. He’s had the flu and other respiratory viruses and they don’t make him unusually ill. He’s normally better than me with my “mild” asthma if we share a virus. He runs 5 miles a day, isn’t overweight, has low blood pressure, normal cholesterol, and is very active socially. 
 

I expect covid would at the least put him on a ventilator because of his specific preexisting condition. I’m surprised but relieved that he agreed to skip church today. 
 

I don’t want him in an indoor crowd if he can avoid it, but his daily walks in parks should be fine. If he wanted to have friends over, that wouldn’t worry me, but I’d be concerned if they had a party inside with 15-20 people.