wuhan - coronavirus

[SKL]

23 minutes ago, Jaybee said:

They have been exposed and there is an outbreak.

Were they tested for Covid?

[SKL]

Just wondering if anyone is seeing a marked improvement that appears to be due to statewide mask mandates?

[Pen]

1 hour ago, Jaybee said:

Okay, I'm having a bit of a mental disconnect going on. Bronchitis and viral pneumonia are both symptoms of covid19, right? I mean those are part of it's MO? Because around here, it seems like people are seeing them as separate issues from covid. Maybe it is even partly because of the way a doctor might present the diagnosis to the patient. "He has viral pneumonia, but he's going to be okay," about an 80+ man who tested positive over a week ago (when he went in to the first appointment because he thought he had bronchitis). I've heard of a couple who have been exposed, at least, attribute symptoms to "just the (seasonal allergies/bronchitis) I get every year." I'm concerned because I think they are spreading the virus and because they brush off the possible seriousness of the situation. 😞 Some of them are trusting a doctor who is elderly and who hasn't kept up with recent information on this virus. Shouldn't they be treated in a different way than the typical bronchitis/pneumonia? People seem to have dug in their heels and are determined not to give the virus any credence, though. Seems to have become a pride thing. It seems to be so entrenched, that even if someone dies of covid-related pneumonia, I doubt seriously if they will ever say it is due to covid. It's weird and sad and discouraging to me. Part of what is sad and discouraging is that there is no reasoning with the mindset. I guess that relieves me of feeling responsibility, but it still really makes me sad. 

 

Do I understand this correctly?

A man who tested positive for CV19 now has pneumonia — but isn’t being treated for CV19 pneumonia?

I hope “he is going to be okay” is true, but if he has untreated CV19 pneumonia maybe this is eldercide? 

[RootAnn]

11 minutes ago, SKL said:

Just wondering if anyone is seeing a marked improvement that appears to be due to statewide mask mandates?

My dd#1 is in a county that implemented mask mandates before the state (1-2 weeks earlier). While there are still issues with some people not taking them sseriously, their numbers stopped exponentially increasing after two weeks and started dropping significantly by a month later. The state has followed at a lag but is now seeing 5-9% positive rates instead of 20+% positive rates. With college starting back up, there is increased testing but I don't know what the college kids are going to do to those numbers.

[Pen]

19 minutes ago, SKL said:

Just wondering if anyone is seeing a marked improvement that appears to be due to statewide mask mandates?

 

Yes. Even with significant increase in social and “opening up”  since statewide mask mandate, with a lag, we are having improvements in various parameters needed for in person school !!!

 

[Terabith]

25 minutes ago, SKL said:

Just wondering if anyone is seeing a marked improvement that appears to be due to statewide mask mandates?

https://www.forbes.com/sites/nicholasreimann/2020/08/12/coronavirus-cases-drop-46-in-parts-of-s-carolina-with-mask-mandates-compared-to-areas-without/#38b3dbca7123

[SKL]

34 minutes ago, Pen said:

 

Yes. Even with significant increase in social and “opening up”  since statewide mask mandate, with a lag, we are having improvements in various parameters needed for in person school !!!

 

Are you in NY?  I noticed the deaths going way down there, but I wondered if that was more because the virus has already pretty much made the rounds.

In my state, I am really not seeing an appreciable difference, though it is hard to separate the effects of different changes happening at once.

[Pen]

13 minutes ago, SKL said:

Are you in NY?  I noticed the deaths going way down there, but I wondered if that was more because the virus has already pretty much made the rounds.

In my state, I am really not seeing an appreciable difference, though it is hard to separate the effects of different changes happening at once.

No -  I lived in NY for many years and speak of it sometimes, but I am currently in Oregon. 

ETA: Our changes have not been as huge as NY.  We started going into exponential growth before an in time stay home stay safe (never complete lock down here).  Then started into at least geometric if not exponential growth after the “stay home” ended, and are now getting more flat again on a lot of important metrics (hospitalization and death particularly) since masks were mandated above age 5yo statewide. 

 

Edited August 19, 2020 by Pen

[Jaybee]

1 hour ago, SKL said:

Were they tested for Covid?

One tested positive, two brush it off and refuse so far to be tested (even though they are around others), one is pretty sick and will probably be tested today (?). 

1 hour ago, Acadie said:

I think every patient with shortness of breath, bronchitis or pneumonia should be tested for Covid now, and it boggles my mind that clinicians would not want to rule it out for their own safety and public health, even if they suspect another cause. 

My thoughts precisely.

[Jaybee]

4 hours ago, Pen said:

 

Do I understand this correctly?

A man who tested positive for CV19 now has pneumonia — but isn’t being treated for CV19 pneumonia?

I hope “he is going to be okay” is true, but if he has untreated CV19 pneumonia maybe this is eldercide? 

He tested positive 10 days ago. Yesterday, he was diagnosed with viral pneumonia and given fluids for dehydration, and the doctor told his family member the quoted. I did not speak directly with the family member, only was told the diagnosis as if it were completely separate from CV19, so in all honesty, I do not know for sure. But I'm not sure many of the doctors around here are up on the latest details of CV19 treatment. So I was just wondering about this disconnect between what I understand about the virus, and what seems to be the thoughts on it around me. His family loves and cares for him deeply, but will believe what the doctor tells them. He may actually be getting the care he needs.

ETA: Glad to find out he is being treated for CV19 pneumonia. He is not doing well, however. Sweet man. 😞

 

Edited August 19, 2020 by Jaybee

[Pen]

38 minutes ago, square_25 said:

What is geometric growth? 

 

 

Ha.  Trying to pull that out of old memory.  Maybe it is not considered a thing anymore? 

 What immediately comes to mind would be a Fibonacci sequence. 

Essentially “geometric” could be same as exponential actually, but with less fast acceleration in rate of change.   ? 

whereas Arithmetic would be a straight line on a graph with an additive constant 2 4 6 8 10 etc,  and exponential would probably be a steep hockey stick handle-like upwards curve and exponential change like l 2 4 16 32 64  128 etc., 

“geometric” would be typically an upwards curve often quite curve looking more like a recurve bow  than a hockey stick and a multiplier changing the extra cases rather than as with arithmetic growth where there is constant addition of a constant  -

like  2 4 10 18 28 40  

or perhaps 

2 4 6 10 16 26 42 or some such 

[Pen]

 

Quote

Essentially “geometric” could be same as exponential actually, but with less fast acceleration in rate of change.   ? 

 

 

10 minutes ago, square_25 said:

That's still exponential, just with a lower base. The Fibonacci sequence is extremely close to exponential. 

 

Agreed. 

 

If whatever one is graphing, hospitalization or deaths or whatever starts to show either graph shape it is good to pay attention 

One may have a few more days before the “lily pads fill the pond” or irl with CV19 before patients fill the ICU with “geometric” — still, if it proceeds without interruption, it will fill. 

 

Edited August 19, 2020 by Pen

[Matryoshka]

4 minutes ago, Pen said:

  15 minutes ago, Pen said:

Essentially “geometric” could be same as exponential actually, but with less fast acceleration in rate of change.   ? 

 

  13 minutes ago, square_25 said:

That's still exponential, just with a lower base. The Fibonacci sequence is extremely close to exponential.

 

Agreed. 

Now that you have had a mature and rational discussion of the math, I'm going to put on my silly hat and say that obvs, geometric growth is the same as exponential, but with more pentagons... or dodecahedrons... 🤡

[Guest]

4 hours ago, Pen said:

 

Yes. Even with significant increase in social and “opening up”  since statewide mask mandate, with a lag, we are having improvements in various parameters needed for in person school !!!

 

We're seeing Improvements even with a County-wide mandate. 

[ktgrok]

The mask mandate here helped, but very very slowly. So we spiked WAY up, then gradually every so slowly have dropped the positivity from about 15% to about 8% (keeping in mind that during that time we also added in hundreds of NBA and MLS tests each day, and they are living in a bubble with no community exposure so are driving down our positivity rate significantly). But that took I think nearly two months? We seem to be holding at about 8% now. (and that's using our weird data and math that doesn't seem to match other places. Because Florida)

[Pen]

5 minutes ago, square_25 said:

I think you're saying that geometric is exponential with the base under 2? But either way, exponential growth isn't great. 

 

To extent they are not just synonyms?

Hmmm.  I am not sure. 

 

“Geometric growth is similar to exponential growth because increases in the size of the population depend on the population size (more individuals having more offspring means faster growth!), but under geometric growth timing is important: geometric growth depends on the number of individuals in the population at the beginning of each breeding season. Exponential growth and geometric growth are similar enough that over longer periods of time, exponential growth can accurately describe changes in populations t”

 

 

[Pen]

Vaccine question:

if several vaccines of different types and companies make it through phase 3 will we have any choice in type / company we want to get? 

[Pen]

4 minutes ago, square_25 said:

So I think the only difference is we aren't measuring continuously. 

 

Or maybe the perfection of math versus the fluctuations of biology? 

[Ausmumof3]

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.08.13.20173161v1
 

study on a fishing boat leaving Seattle showed 85pc of people were infected.  Prior to the departure only 6 had tested positive to antibodies.  three didn’t become ill meaning the antibodies seem to be protective three however did test positive to infection again however it may be that they were in a stage of active infection when they left?.  The fact that 85pc tested positive seems to indicate the vague hope that 50pc of the population have some kind of cross reactive T cell immunity that prevents infection might be false?  
 

[ElizabethB]

15 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.08.13.20173161v1
 

study on a fishing boat leaving Seattle showed 85pc of people were infected.  Prior to the departure only 6 had tested positive to antibodies.  three didn’t become ill meaning the antibodies seem to be protective three however did test positive to infection again however it may be that they were in a stage of active infection when they left?.  The fact that 85pc tested positive seems to indicate the vague hope that 50pc of the population have some kind of cross reactive T cell immunity that prevents infection might be false?  
 

It is that high in very crowded situations. Cruise ships are actually more spread out. High in prisons, meatpacking plants, etc. In normal conditions, the number is looking smaller.

They're actually also not sure if T cell immunity means very mild case or asymptomatic case or not infected, from what I can tell.

Edited August 19, 2020 by ElizabethB

[Pen]

37 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.08.13.20173161v1
 

study on a fishing boat leaving Seattle showed 85pc of people were infected.  Prior to the departure only 6 had tested positive to antibodies.  three didn’t become ill meaning the antibodies seem to be protective three however did test positive to infection again however it may be that they were in a stage of active infection when they left?.  The fact that 85pc tested positive seems to indicate the vague hope that 50pc of the population have some kind of cross reactive T cell immunity that prevents infection might be false?  
 

 

I agree that it does not seem to fit with a hope of 50pc of population having cross reactive immunity.  However, children tend to have more cross reactive immunity (in general not specific to CV19), and presumably children represent 0pc of the crew, so possibly general population would do slightly better.  But slightly is not 50pc. 

 

 

It’s going to take me more than one reading to absorb that whole PDF. It is extremely interesting in what it possibly suggests about different tests.

obviously the predeparture R-PCR was insufficient to prevent outbreak is one interesting point though not the one they are trying to make.    I presume virus was caught from people on board spreading it despite test prior to departure, not from surfaces etc, but at least as far as I got that’s not clear to me. 

Exactly which serology tests for which part of the SARS2 virus, S or N, and how that seems possibly to relate to immunity also is extremely interesting.  

 

[Ausmumof3]

41 minutes ago, ElizabethB said:

It is that high in very crowded situations. Cruise ships are actually more spread out. High in prisons, meatpacking plants, etc. In normal conditions, the number is looking smaller.

They're actually also not sure if T cell immunity means very mild case or asymptomatic case or not infected, from what I can tell.

Yes or worst case scenario antibody enhanced disease or whatever it is.  We really don’t know yet.  

[Ausmumof3]

7 minutes ago, Pen said:

 

I agree that it does not seem to fit with a hope of 50pc of population having cross reactive immunity.  However, children tend to have more cross reactive immunity (in general not specific to CV19), and presumably children represent 0pc of the crew, so possibly general population would do slightly better.  But slightly is not 50pc. 

 

 

It’s going to take me more than one reading to absorb that whole PDF. It is extremely interesting in what it possibly suggests about different tests.

obviously the predeparture R-PCR was insufficient to prevent outbreak is one interesting point though not the one they are trying to make.    I presume virus was caught from people on board spreading it despite test prior to departure, not from surfaces etc, but at least as far as I got that’s not clear to me. 

Exactly which serology tests for which part of the SARS2 virus, S or N, and how that seems possibly to relate to immunity also is extremely interesting.  

 

Yes there’s a lot in it and interesting and a little hard to follow.  Like why they decided to assume the antibody positive people that didn’t get protected had a false positive to antibodies rather than questioning whether the antibodies were protective enough.  I think it was something to do with type of antibody test but I kind of wonder why they were so sure. It’s just such a small sample (6 people with antibodies) to draw big conclusions from.

[Pen]

5 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Yes there’s a lot in it and interesting and a little hard to follow.  Like why they decided to assume the antibody positive people that didn’t get protected had a false positive to antibodies rather than questioning whether the antibodies were protective enough.  I think it was something to do with type of antibody test but I kind of wonder why they were so sure. It’s just such a small sample (6 people with antibodies) to draw big conclusions from.

 

Also I may have read this backwards but I think thevpeople who didn’t get sick or only mildly with antibodies had N nucleus antibodies, while I think most vaccines are going after antibodies to S spike. 

[Ausmumof3]

1 hour ago, Pen said:

 

Also I may have read this backwards but I think thevpeople who didn’t get sick or only mildly with antibodies had N nucleus antibodies, while I think most vaccines are going after antibodies to S spike. 

Hmm interesting.

[Ausmumof3]

We’ve had a case of unknown source in QLD In a youth detention worker which is a bit of a worry.

[Ausmumof3]

240 cases for vic today.  Rolling average is still heading down though.  There was also a lady who had been in hotel quarantine in Sydney (tested negative twice) Flew to Brisbane and visited a cafe then returned to Tokyo and tested positive in Tokyo so there’s a fair bit of concern over where she’s picked it up (most likely hotel quarantine?) and tracing contacts etc.  

tasmania have closed their borders till at least 1st of December now.

[RootAnn]

@SKL Attaching the positive case graph from my DD's county in re: mask mandate. If there is an uptick at the very latest, that is the college kids arriving (though their cases are supposed to get counted in their home area if that is where they came from).

Second graph is a county that didn't do so well after the mask mandate but also eventually saw less cases. I don't know why there is such a difference.

[Ausmumof3]

Mask requirements in Melbourne have coincided with drop on cases but of course they also went into hard lockdown at the same time so it would be pretty hard to tease out what did what.  

[Ausmumof3]

Schools in Wuhan are prepping to open again from the beginning of September.  It’s been a seriously long road for them.

[Ausmumof3]

https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKCN25F1YL?__twitter_impression=true
 

the death toll in Sweden in the first six months of 2020 is the highest they have experienced in 150 years.

[Ausmumof3]

https://www.wired.com/story/a-new-study-suggests-a-possible-disease-vector-germy-dust/?mbid=social_tw_sci&utm_brand=wired-science&utm_medium=social&utm_social-type=owned&utm_source=twitter
 

dust as a potential virus spreader?

Our experiments very clearly show that when guinea pigs move around they stir up dust. And if that dust is contaminated with virus, then it can transmit that virus through the air to another animal in a separate cage,” says Ristenpart. Their work also raises the possibility that this fourth route of transmission—aerosolized fomites—could potentially matter for human health as well, he says. Especially during a global outbreak of a new respiratory virus. “When you rub your face or brush your shirt or crumple a piece of tissue paper, you’re aerosolizing micron-scale particulates,” says Ristenpart. “And if that surface had been previously contacted by virus-containing mucus, then you’re also aerosolizing virus that other people can inhale.”

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-17888-w

(the study on influenza a and guinea pigs)

 

[Wheres Toto]

20 hours ago, SKL said:

Just wondering if anyone is seeing a marked improvement that appears to be due to statewide mask mandates?

Mask mandates seem to have made a clear difference in NJ.    Both the original mask mandate and then adding outdoor when we had a few spikes over the summer.   Compliance is pretty high in public places.  

[SKL]

3 minutes ago, Where's Toto? said:

Mask mandates seem to have made a clear difference in NJ.    Both the original mask mandate and then adding outdoor when we had a few spikes over the summer.   Compliance is pretty high in public places.  

But isn't NJ also closer to herd immunity due to being the worst hit state so far in terms of death rate?  I would think cases couldn't possibly do anything but decrease at this point.

[Wheres Toto]

29 minutes ago, SKL said:

But isn't NJ also closer to herd immunity due to being the worst hit state so far in terms of death rate?  I would think cases couldn't possibly do anything but decrease at this point.

Nope, we aren't anywhere close to herd immunity based on testing, and we've had really good testing for a while.    We may be small but we're very populated.  We've had around 188,000 cases out of a population of 8.8 million.  My county alone has 500,000 people and "only" around 7,000 confirmed cases and around 700 deaths.   

[Pen]

4 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

https://www.wired.com/story/a-new-study-suggests-a-possible-disease-vector-germy-dust/?mbid=social_tw_sci&utm_brand=wired-science&utm_medium=social&utm_social-type=owned&utm_source=twitter
 

dust as a potential virus spreader?

Our experiments very clearly show that when guinea pigs move around they stir up dust. And if that dust is contaminated with virus, then it can transmit that virus through the air to another animal in a separate cage,” says Ristenpart. Their work also raises the possibility that this fourth route of transmission—aerosolized fomites—could potentially matter for human health as well, he says. Especially during a global outbreak of a new respiratory virus. “When you rub your face or brush your shirt or crumple a piece of tissue paper, you’re aerosolizing micron-scale particulates,” says Ristenpart. “And if that surface had been previously contacted by virus-containing mucus, then you’re also aerosolizing virus that other people can inhale.”

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-17888-w

(the study on influenza a and guinea pigs)

 

 

Quoting partly just to bring attention.

I saw something specific to CV19 about dust as a spreader. Yes. Is the answer. 

Both aerosolized fomites and virus riding on larger floating particles (like ash from fires even I wonder? I think the thing I saw found it catching rides on vehicle exhaust.)  

 

I also keep wondering about instructions to say not to touch masks but don’t caution about clothes. There’s likely to be virus getting on clothes as well as masks and hands. We wash our hands more often than clothes. 

 

It may matter increasingly as cases in an area rise, so that surface cleaning of groceries etc may be right to do, just not so much needed when there were not yet many cases in community. 

[EmseB]

Looks like European countries have had bars and nightclubs open for some time and are having to shut them down again.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-19-appeared-to-be-under-control-in-europe-now-its-surging-again-11597848444?redirect=amp#click=https://t.co/CrAHMScMpx

[Pen]

2 minutes ago, EmseB said:

Looks like European countries have had bars and nightclubs open for some time and are having to shut them down again.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-19-appeared-to-be-under-control-in-europe-now-its-surging-again-11597848444?redirect=amp#click=https://t.co/CrAHMScMpx

 

Yes. I can’t read WSJ, but have seen indications of a sustained rise in parts of Europe elsewhere also. As well as having seen that by following the day trends on “our world in data” - Which was disputed by Matryoshka on another thread as not counting.  

 

[ktgrok]

The reason I think mask mandates didn't work quickly here is that they only apply to say, stores, businesses, etc. But the people that were already infected continued to spread the disease to friends, extended family, etc. 

People are still getting together, unmasked, to hang out, have lunch, birthday parties, etc. So the spread slowed, but when you already had that many people infected, and they are still getting together in other places, it doesn't just stop in its tracks. 

oh! And we still have indoor dining here - and you don't have to wear a mask while at your table. So that's another issue. 

[freesia]

40 minutes ago, Ktgrok said:

The reason I think mask mandates didn't work quickly here is that they only apply to say, stores, businesses, etc. But the people that were already infected continued to spread the disease to friends, extended family, etc. 

People are still getting together, unmasked, to hang out, have lunch, birthday parties, etc. So the spread slowed, but when you already had that many people infected, and they are still getting together in other places, it doesn't just stop in its tracks. 

oh! And we still have indoor dining here - and you don't have to wear a mask while at your table. So that's another issue. 

I’ve noticed decreases after mask mandates for sure. I think it’s not immediate because of the reasons you gave plus the person usually lives with other people and they are likely to test positive at some point afterwards.  It needs to go through those close contacts but in the meantime is being stopped by masks from spreading much beyond. 

[Ausmumof3]

Bno:

France reports 4,711 new cases of coronavirus, biggest one-day increase since April. Only 4 days in March and April were higher - Reuters

[Ausmumof3]

https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2017/02/study-confirms-vitamin-d-protects-against-cold-and-flu/
 

I know you guys already know all this and it’s not covid specific but yet another study with good evidence for vitamin D 

[Ausmumof3]

https://www.wsj.com/articles/troubled-covid-19-data-system-returning-to-cdc-11597945770?redirect=amp#click=https://t.co/7Juz2QriQl
 

covid data reporting is going back to the CDC after delays and issues transitioning to the new system.

[Pen]

 

I am trying to find information on cardiomyopathy persisting beyond “recovery” from initial illness and similar severe problems from Covid 19 in Scandinavia.  If anyone sees anything on this, please bring to my attention!  TIA. 

[Pen]

Has anyone seen anything that gives USA CV19 stats exclusive of NY and NJ? 

[Pen]

2 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2017/02/study-confirms-vitamin-d-protects-against-cold-and-flu/
 

I know you guys already know all this and it’s not covid specific but yet another study with good evidence for vitamin D 

 

https://www.fxmedicine.com.au/blog-post/vitamin-d-vs-flu-vaccine-there-stand-out-winner

 

“The results of these two studies suggests that vitamin D may be almost 6 times more effective at preventing influenza than vaccination.

Interestingly too, evidence shows that those with lower vitamin D levels in the winter months are more likely to get influenza.[4]

In order to obtain a more accurate comparison between the efficacy of the flu vaccine and vitamin D supplementation, a randomised, placebo-controlled clinical trial comparing the two interventions directly would be ideal”

[EmseB]

29 minutes ago, Pen said:

Has anyone seen anything that gives USA CV19 stats exclusive of NY and NJ? 

I have, but it was on Twitter, never to be found again (I have tried!!).

[Ausmumof3]

1 hour ago, Pen said:

 

I am trying to find information on cardiomyopathy persisting beyond “recovery” from initial illness and similar severe problems from Covid 19 in Scandinavia.  If anyone sees anything on this, please bring to my attention!  TIA. 

I just saw a tweet claiming someone died from it after asymptomatic covid.  But no source no details.  I’d also like to know if anyone sees more.

[Ausmumof3]

179 in vic today.  So happy to see this number under 200 though still wish it was dropping faster.

[Pen]

16 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

I just saw a tweet claiming someone died from it after asymptomatic covid.  But no source no details.  I’d also like to know if anyone sees more.

 

I’m interested in Asymptomatic or almost Asymptomatic leading to severe problems like cardiomyopathy from anywhere in world!