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@Ausmumof3 @Pen @BeachGal @Acadie

This is from a December 2017 Nature Journal Article https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-017-07766-9

“They sequenced the genomes of 15 viral strains from the bats and found that, taken together, the strains contain all the genetic pieces that make up the human version. Although no single bat had the exact strain of SARS coronavirus that is found in humans, the analysis showed that the strains mix often. The human strain could have emerged from such mixing, says Kwok-Yung Yuen, a virologist at the University of Hong Kong who co-discovered the SARS virus: “The authors should be congratulated for confirming what has been suspected.” 

But Changchun Tu, a virologist who directs the OIE Reference Laboratory for Rabies in Changchun, China, says the results are only “99%” persuasive. He would like to see scientists demonstrate in the lab that the human SARS strain can jump from bats to another animal, such as a civet. "If this could have been done, the evidence would be perfect,” he says.

Travel trouble

Another outstanding question is how a virus from bats in Yunnan could travel to animals and humans around 1,000 kilometres away in Guangdong, without causing any suspected cases in Yunnan itself. That “has puzzled me a long time”, says Tu.

Cui and Shi are searching for other bat populations that could have produced strains capable of infecting humans. The researchers have now isolated some 300 bat coronavirus sequences, most not yet published, with which they will continue to monitor the virus’s evolution. 

And they warn that a deadly outbreak could emerge again: the cave where the elements of SARS were found is just 1 kilometre from the nearest village, and genetic mixing among the viral strains is fast. “The risk of spillover into people and emergence of a disease similar to SARS is possible,” the authors write in their paper.

Although many markets selling animals in China have already been closed or restricted following outbreaks of SARS and other infectious diseases, Yuen agrees that the latest results suggest the risk is still present. “It reinforces the notion that we should not disturb wildlife habitats and never put wild animals into markets,” says Yuen. Respecting nature, he argues, “is the way to stay away from the harm of emerging infections”.”

 

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33 minutes ago, prairiewindmomma said:

Dh has coworkers based out of China. I asked yesterday how they were doing. He said they were tired of being stuck in their flats.

I eat a lot at two local Chinese restaurants. I talk a lot to the owners of the restaurants. Tonight, I was asking the woman who owns one of the restaurants if any friends or family of hers in China had been affected by the virus. While it’s not in the city she is from, she said that people just aren’t going out. Even if they’re not in a quarantined city, they stay inside.  She said that her friends are getting really tired of being stuck at home and that they want to be able to go out and socialize.  

When they do go out, they are told to stand far apart from other people.  I suppose we Americans might be ok with that, but in other cultures they tend to stand closer together, so she said it’s something they have to remember to do—stand farther from each other than what feels natural to them.

I know that when I had three different groups of Chinese students stay with us over three different summers, that they liked to sit very close together.  When all the visiting students were in a group on a field trip, the boys would walk down the street with their arms around each other’s shoulders.  The girls would walk arm in arm.  When they were at home and sat on the couch, they would be sitting close, legs touching.  I can see where it would be weird for them in their culture to be told to stand far apart from other people when they do venture out.  

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18 minutes ago, Arcadia said:

In what sense? Military Transport helicopters has always been mobilized for disaster help of this scale, 

Well in the sense of “this is really serious”.

but yeah you’re right similar (military involvement) done for bushfires here.  It was a relief in one sense in that it meant things were being taken seriously 😐 

 

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8 hours ago, Carrie12345 said:

Shelter In Place.

Me and mine are good to go! Well, stay, lol. But most people are extremely unprepared for anything more than a 24 hour glitch in the universe.

 

Our local grocery store had a small fire last night and will be closed for several days while it's cleaned and restocked.  People are freaking out because the store will be closed for 72 hours!  I guess the restaurants will do a booming business for the next few days. 😯

Between the grocery fire and following the news about quarantine, I did an inventory to see how well we are set on all-of-the-things. We'd be ok for about a month. 

 

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No panic here, but I will say that our family is re-evaulating voluntary leisure travel that involves airplanes in the next 2-4 months. And that is for domearic flights. We're discussing if we go, do we drive instead? Or just not go at all. (One involves visiting dd in college.)

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3 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

2 new cases in Japan, a taxi driver and a doctor.

also 8 new cases in Singapore 

it seems concerning that of the previous 50 cases in Singapore, 7 are considered to be in critical condition.  

 

I wonder if they have been working before this.  That would be a lot of people they could have been in contact with. 

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45 minutes ago, RootAnn said:

No panic here, but I will say that our family is re-evaulating voluntary leisure travel that involves airplanes in the next 2-4 months. And that is for domearic flights. We're discussing if we go, do we drive instead? Or just not go at all. (One involves visiting dd in college.)

I would agree with this statement.  We are traveling to Washington DC in April, but I am thankful we are driving (even if it was mostly because we were cheap) and that the only things we have reservations for are our hotels and the White House.  Those can be cancelled if needed up to a few days before.  I assume we will go unless things change drastically, but I am very thankful that my 14yo son and I took our trip to England last spring.  I was paranoid enough as it was about getting sick on the plane even without anything serious going around.  

I have been following this thread and I am convinced that what we need to do is pray fervently for the people of China.  The situation is definitely a reminder for me that I am not as in control of my life as I often lead myself to believe.

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2 hours ago, mommyoffive said:

 

I wonder if they have been working before this.  That would be a lot of people they could have been in contact with. 

The one death attributed to Coronavirus is an 80-something just south of Tokyo. The taxi driver said he thinks he transported some Chinese.  I got this from NHK. My husband's leaving for Japan next week. Not changing his plans nor our daughter's plan to go in April. 

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The first death in Japan from Coronavirus is an 80 year old woman. The concerning thing about this is that she was initially diagnosed with pneumonia. She had been hospitalized since Feb. 1. They did not test her for Coronavirus until Wednesday. She died before the test came back. So how many health care workers had exposure to this woman and did not wear protective clothing because she just had pneumonia? How many other patients in the two hospitals that she was in have now been exposed to the virus? This is how it started in Wuhan. 

https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/news/20200213_52/

Susan in TX

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15 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

One thing I read about the Wuhan research lab was interesting.  The researcher there who studied coronavirus was studying the bat cave close by.  She said that about 3pc of the people living nearby had some kind of antibodies to the coronavirus indicating that there might be semi regular bat to human jumps with the virus but not followed by human to human transmission.

I guess I’ve been puzzling over the coincidence of the proximity of the lab but probably the choice of that location for that topic was based on proximity to the cave and the outbreak is also linked to proximity to the cave.  So it’s not really a coincidence but doesn’t imply necessarily a lab leak or something just that it’s logical that you’re going to study something in the place where it exists.

thats probably really convoluted but I can’t figure out how else to explain it.

The bat cave is in Yunnan, which is around 1,000 miles from Wuhan. Not nearby.

 

Screenshot_20200213-184730.png

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1 hour ago, YaelAldrich said:

The one death attributed to Coronavirus is an 80-something just south of Tokyo. The taxi driver said he thinks he transported some Chinese.  I got this from NHK. My husband's leaving for Japan next week. Not changing his plans nor our daughter's plan to go in April. 

 

I heard that the dead woman was the mother in law of the taxi driver.   Possibly from online CNN, but not sure. 

 

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From Reuters https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-singapore-meeting-idUSKBN2071F5

““We do feel uncomfortable obviously when we diagnose a patient with the illness and we can’t work out where it came from...the containment activities are less effective,” said Dale Fisher, chair of the Global Outbreak Alert and Response Network coordinated by the World Health Organisation. 

Authorities initially hinted at Chinese delegates, which included someone from Wuhan - the Chinese city at the epicentre of the virus that has killed over 1,350 people. But a Servomex spokesperson told Reuters its Chinese delegates had not tested positive. 

Fisher and other experts have compared the Singapore meeting to another so-called “super-spreading” incident at a Hong Kong hotel in 2003 where a sick Chinese doctor spread Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome around the world. 

The WHO has opened an investigation into the Singapore incident, but said its “way too early” to tell if it is a super-spreading event. 

...

Back in Singapore, authorities were battling to keep track of new cases of local transmissions, many unlinked to previous cases. 

Management at the hotel - the Grand Hyatt Singapore - said they had cleaned extensively and were monitoring staff and guests for infection but did not know “how, where or when” conference attendees were infected. The lion dancers, who posted photos of the event on Facebook, said they were virus free. 

“Everyone assumes it was a delegate but it could have been a cleaner, it could have been a waiter,” said Paul Tambyah, an infectious diseases expert at National University Singapore. He added it was “very important” to find “patient zero” to establish other possible “chains of transmission”. 

But time may be running out. 

Singapore health ministry’s Kenneth Mak said the government will continue to try and identify the initial carrier until the outbreak ends, but as days pass it will get harder. 

“We might never be able to tell who that first patient is,” Mak said.”

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1 hour ago, Pen said:

 

I heard that the dead woman was the mother in law of the taxi driver.   Possibly from online CNN, but not sure. 

 

NHK reported the same information. At least there we know the human to human transmission. Where he got it from no one knows. He claims not to have taken foreigners in his taxi but who knows. There are two other land based people in Japan for whom they can't figure where they got it. A doctor in Western Japan and a 20-something in Chiba (just outside Tokyo).

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1 hour ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Well that is less comforting 😳

Why? ETA according to the article cited above, bat viruses in Yunnan seem to be able to affect people in the local area. In other news, Chinese markets have live exotic animals in close proximity to humans, and hygiene/disease reporting is not efficient. I don't see that a specific link is needed between a bat cave in Yunnan and an outbreak in Wuhan. As someone who lived in Chinese Asia for almost two decades, the market link is obvious and plausible to me.

Edited by Laura Corin
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1 hour ago, MissLemon said:

I'm glad you posted this, because I had not seen it on local news yet. We are not far from Lackland AFB. 


https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/13/us/us-coronavirus-case-texas-base/index.html
Updated 12:47 PM ET, Thu February 13, 2020 

(CNN) The 15th case of the novel coronavirus in the United States is one of the evacuees at Lackland Air Force Base in Texas, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said Thursday. 

The patient has been under the 14-day federal quarantine since arriving in the US from China on a chartered flight on February 7, the CDC said. The person, described by a CDC official as a "solo traveler," has been isolated and is receiving medical care at a hospital.”

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1 hour ago, YaelAldrich said:

NHK reported the same information. At least there we know the human to human transmission. Where he got it from no one knows. He claims not to have taken foreigners in his taxi but who knows. There are two other land based people in Japan for whom they can't figure where they got it. A doctor in Western Japan and a 20-something in Chiba (just outside Tokyo).

 

Do we know for sure she got it from him? (Rather than the opposite?) 

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8 minutes ago, Pen said:

 

Do we know for sure she got it from him? (Rather than the opposite?) 


Think nobody knows 

https://english.kyodonews.net/news/2020/02/37656f22c835-urgent-some-elderly-to-be-allowed-off-virus-hit-ship-sooner-than-expected.html

“The Japanese woman from Kanagawa Prefecture, just southwest of the capital, who had not traveled overseas recently, was found to be infected with the virus after she died, health minister Katsunobu Kato said at a press conference.

The woman had been diagnosed with pneumonia and hospitalized since Feb. 1, the health ministry said, adding her breathing deteriorated on Feb. 6.

She was the mother-in-law of a Tokyo taxi driver whose infection with the virus was confirmed Thursday, according to a government official.

The driver in his 70s was quoted as saying by a Tokyo metropolitan government official that he had not transported foreign visitors in the two weeks before he first showed symptoms on Jan. 29 and health authorities are seeking to determine how he got the virus.

The government is wrestling with the spread of the pneumonia-causing virus. On Thursday, 44 additional infections were confirmed aboard the Diamond Princess cruise ship docked at Yokohama with thousands of passengers and crew remaining confined to the quarantined vessel.

In Wakayama Prefecture, a surgeon in his 50s became the first doctor in Japan to be infected with the virus, the local government said. It is not known whether he had close contact with visitors from China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

The latest cases, also including a Japanese man in his 20s from Chiba Prefecture who tested positive on Thursday, bring the total number of confirmed infections to 251 in the country. The bulk, 218, are passengers and crew of the Diamond Princess docked at Yokoyama.

The tally includes foreign tourists visiting from Wuhan, the epicenter of the viral outbreak and a Japanese bus driver who had close contact with Chinese tourists in Japan.”

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3 minutes ago, Arcadia said:

The driver in his 70s was quoted as saying by a Tokyo metropolitan government official that he had not transported foreign visitors in the two weeks before he first showed symptoms on Jan. 29 and health authorities are seeking to determine how he got the virus.

I understand pegging people traveling from the epicenter as “higher risk”, but it just seems insane to me for any country to be like, “Well, I haven’t been around any Chinese people...” 6 degrees of separation.

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1 hour ago, Laura Corin said:

Why? ETA according to the article cited above, bat viruses in Yunnan seem to be able to affect people in the local area. In other news, Chinese markets have live exotic animals in close proximity to humans, and hygiene/disease reporting is not efficient. I don't see that a specific link is needed between a bat cave in Yunnan and an outbreak in Wuhan. As someone who lived in Chinese Asia for almost two decades, the market link is obvious and plausible to me.

I think they found only a certain number of the original cases linked to the market.  But I guess the most likely explanation is that it possibly started earlier than that specific date, still at the market or a similar venue and had spread somewhat through the population before it started drawing attention?

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38 minutes ago, Arcadia said:


Think nobody knows 

https://english.kyodonews.net/news/2020/02/37656f22c835-urgent-some-elderly-to-be-allowed-off-virus-hit-ship-sooner-than-expected.html

“The Japanese woman from Kanagawa Prefecture, just southwest of the capital, who had not traveled overseas recently, was found to be infected with the virus after she died, health minister Katsunobu Kato said at a press conference.

The woman had been diagnosed with pneumonia and hospitalized since Feb. 1, the health ministry said, adding her breathing deteriorated on Feb. 6.

She was the mother-in-law of a Tokyo taxi driver whose infection with the virus was confirmed Thursday, according to a government official.

The driver in his 70s was quoted as saying by a Tokyo metropolitan government official that he had not transported foreign visitors in the two weeks before he first showed symptoms on Jan. 29 and health authorities are seeking to determine how he got the virus.

The government is wrestling with the spread of the pneumonia-causing virus. On Thursday, 44 additional infections were confirmed aboard the Diamond Princess cruise ship docked at Yokohama with thousands of passengers and crew remaining confined to the quarantined vessel.

In Wakayama Prefecture, a surgeon in his 50s became the first doctor in Japan to be infected with the virus, the local government said. It is not known whether he had close contact with visitors from China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

The latest cases, also including a Japanese man in his 20s from Chiba Prefecture who tested positive on Thursday, bring the total number of confirmed infections to 251 in the country. The bulk, 218, are passengers and crew of the Diamond Princess docked at Yokoyama.

The tally includes foreign tourists visiting from Wuhan, the epicenter of the viral outbreak and a Japanese bus driver who had close contact with Chinese tourists in Japan.”

Doesn’t Japan still have incoming flights from China just a block on the three provinces with the highest numbers?

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13 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

I think they found only a certain number of the original cases linked to the market.  But I guess the most likely explanation is that it possibly started earlier than that specific date, still at the market or a similar venue and had spread somewhat through the population before it started drawing attention?

Yes, that sounds likely to me.

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13 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Doesn’t Japan still have incoming flights from China just a block on the three provinces with the highest numbers?


seems so

From Japan Times 10 February https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/02/10/national/13-japanese-airports-suspend-flights-mainland-china/#.XkXS3yWIaEc

“Regular flights between mainland China and at least 13 regional airports in Japan will be completely suspended due to the coronavirus outbreak, operators of the facilities said Monday.

Airports in Ibaraki, Nagasaki, Kagoshima and other prefectures will have no direct flights to Shanghai or any other Chinese cities starting Saturday at the latest.”

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1 hour ago, Ausmumof3 said:

I think they found only a certain number of the original cases linked to the market.  But I guess the most likely explanation is that it possibly started earlier than that specific date, still at the market or a similar venue and had spread somewhat through the population before it started drawing attention?

I saw an article somewhere where an epidemiologist said that the pattern of coronavirus spreading right now (the stage at which this epidemic is) is consistent with a virus that started infecting humans several months ago. I will come back to post it if I found the link in my browser history.

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26 minutes ago, Pen said:

 

USA and Australia still both have flights coming in from China too, don’t they? 

Only returning Australian citizens are allowed in from mainland China.  Many of the flights seem to be stopping due to not being financially viable.  No tourists that have been through mainland China in the last 14 days can enter.  At least that was the last I heard.  Travel ban has just been extended again.  China isn’t happy and branded it an overreaction.  Cost to the tourism and international education industry is likely to be pretty significant, particularly on top of the fires.

https://7news.com.au/travel/coronavirus/chinese-embassy-slams-aust-travel-ban-c-696868

Edited by Ausmumof3
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I gather there are African (Nigerian mentioned, but could be others too) students stuck in Wuhan.  

That seems like a big problem.  Currently a big problem for the stuck students, and potentially in future if any student brings covid19 to a country that can’t cope with it. 

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16 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Only returning Australian citizens are allowed in from mainland China.  Many of the flights seem to be stopping due to not being financially viable.  No tourists that have been through mainland China in the last 14 days can enter.  At least that was the last I heard.  Travel ban has just been extended again.  China isn’t happy and branded it an overreaction.  Cost to the tourism and international education industry is likely to be pretty significant, particularly on top of the fires.

https://7news.com.au/travel/coronavirus/chinese-embassy-slams-aust-travel-ban-c-696868

 

As of this past weekend I think travel from mainland China into USA got limited to citizens, legal residents and family of the above with similar restriction on tourists who were there in past 14 days, but that’s still a lot of potential flights and people — depending in part I guess on how family is defined.  My BIL ‘s family of origin is from mainland China and much extended family on that side is still in PRC, for example.  Though I think that’s a lot safer than “tourism” where,  by definition almost,  tourists tend to go lots of places.  Visiting family would tend to stay put more.  I think.  

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6 minutes ago, Pen said:

 

As of this past weekend I think travel from mainland China into USA got limited to citizens, legal residents and family of the above with similar restriction on tourists who were there in past 14 days, but that’s still a lot of potential flights and people — depending in part I guess on how family is defined.  My BIL ‘s family of origin is from mainland China and much extended family on that side is still in PRC, for example.  Though I think that’s a lot safer than “tourism” where,  by definition almost,  tourists tend to go lots of places.  Visiting family would tend to stay put more.  I think.  

Oh yes Australia includes resident but not families afaik.  In fact there is a toddler stranded in Wuhan because she was sent to stay with her grandparents and her family can’t get in to get her and the government wouldn’t evacuate an unaccompanied minor.

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On 2/12/2020 at 5:03 PM, Ausmumof3 said:

Thanks for these

we have done a bit due to bushfire season but they require management and maintenance not just set and forget 

 

For our potential wild fire season we have some datrex emergency food bars.  

Rather awful (actually ours are almost flavorless really, though cinnamon or lemon flavored might be options), but very portable in a backpack, and, along with water, supposed to sustain life for a few days if needed.  Probably there’s some equivalent in Australia.  They are basically bars of wheat (not good for gluten issues!), sugar (also on my try to avoid list), oil.   We tested in a non emergency and found then to be edible, no adverse reactions beyond gluten issues...

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11 hours ago, mommyoffive said:

 

I wonder if they have been working before this.  That would be a lot of people they could have been in contact with. 

BNO are now reporting that one of the doctors patients is also positive and in serious condition but can’t find English language source so not verified.  It said he worked for 3 days.

Edited by Ausmumof3
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@momto2

From CNA https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asia/cruise-westerdam-disembark-cambodia-coronavirus-fears-covid-19-12434226

“SIHANOUKVILLE: Passengers on a cruise ship that spent two weeks at sea after being turned away by five countries over coronavirus fears started disembarking in Cambodia on Friday (Feb 14).

The MS Westerdam, carrying 1,455 passengers and 802 crew, docked in the Cambodian port town of Sihanoukville on Thursday. It had anchored offshore early in the morning to allow Cambodian officials to board and collect samples from passengers with any signs of ill health or flu-like symptoms.

After tests, no one on board was found to be carrying the virus, Cambodia's health ministry said.

Cambodian authorities granted permission for passengers to disembark on Friday morning, the ship's operator, Holland America Line, a unit of Miami-based Carnival Corp, said in an emailed statement, ending two weeks of uncertainty for the cruise.

Charter flights were being organised to help passengers return home, the statement said.

"Flight details are being communicated to guests as they are finalised, and it is expected that a full disembarkation will take a few days given the charter flight schedule," the statement said.

...

Cambodian prime minister Hun Sen personally greeted the passengers with handshakes and bouquets of roses as they stepped off the ship and boarded a waiting bus.

"My wife and I gave him some chocolates as a show of our appreciation," Lou Poandel, a tourist from New Jersey, told Reuters after he disembarked and met the Cambodian leader.”

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10 minutes ago, Arcadia said:

@momto2

From CNA https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asia/cruise-westerdam-disembark-cambodia-coronavirus-fears-covid-19-12434226

“SIHANOUKVILLE: Passengers on a cruise ship that spent two weeks at sea after being turned away by five countries over coronavirus fears started disembarking in Cambodia on Friday (Feb 14).

The MS Westerdam, carrying 1,455 passengers and 802 crew, docked in the Cambodian port town of Sihanoukville on Thursday. It had anchored offshore early in the morning to allow Cambodian officials to board and collect samples from passengers with any signs of ill health or flu-like symptoms.

After tests, no one on board was found to be carrying the virus, Cambodia's health ministry said.

Cambodian authorities granted permission for passengers to disembark on Friday morning, the ship's operator, Holland America Line, a unit of Miami-based Carnival Corp, said in an emailed statement, ending two weeks of uncertainty for the cruise.

Charter flights were being organised to help passengers return home, the statement said.

"Flight details are being communicated to guests as they are finalised, and it is expected that a full disembarkation will take a few days given the charter flight schedule," the statement said.

...

Cambodian prime minister Hun Sen personally greeted the passengers with handshakes and bouquets of roses as they stepped off the ship and boarded a waiting bus.

"My wife and I gave him some chocolates as a show of our appreciation," Lou Poandel, a tourist from New Jersey, told Reuters after he disembarked and met the Cambodian leader.”

The report I read said they had finger prick blood tests.  I actually thought the testing was via nasal swab?  Anyone know more about that?

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