wuhan - coronavirus

[gardenmom5]

1 hour ago, Acadie said:

 

gardenmom5, do you have a link for this? I searched and couldn't find anything. 

My friend Im'd it, with specific instructions to not actually post it to FB - but IM only (as FB takes it down, and bans the poster). I dont' know how to download it from FB IM.  if you have a FB account, I'd be happy to IM it to you.  I know it's possible to DL from FB - but I'm not sure how to do it for an IM'd message.

I've asked if to send it to me as an email attachment if she has it that way.  But it is clearly Senator Cotton, General Townsend of AfricaCommand, and an Admiral whose name I don't recall.

[RootAnn]

I wondered how Russia was getting by with so few confirmed cases. I still don't know how they are doing it, but it sounds like even if you don't have it, you are quarantined.

https://www.mail.com/int/scitech/health/9727106-2-russians-flee-virus-quarantine-dismay-hospitals

[Laurie]

7 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

That was similar to the uk.  They deemed it a significant risk so they could enforce quarantine but then said it was low risk to individuals.

my suspicion is there is a significant risk and they are trying to avoid panic buying, share market crash etc.  and of course no one wants to press the panic button.

This is what's bothering me.   The head of the local health department was shown on the local news last night.  He was addressing the county council to let them know how their resources are insufficient for monitoring people in isolation and preparing for a more widespread outbreak.  The officials keep saying that the risk to the public is very low while at the same time saying that there's an increasing likelihood of an outbreak here.  WHICH IS IT??????  

 According to the news story,  the government wants people and businesses to have a plan to reduce exposure to this virus.   Terms  like "social isolation" to avoid sick people are being used.   But based on other stories I've seen, it makes me wonder what happens  if you decide to avoid places like Chinatown/International District because you think you might be more likely to be exposed to someone with ties to the outbreak area in China...you're now some kind of racist/xenophobe for thinking like this?      

I learned that the quarantine RV's are still empty but have 24 hour security from the state patrol.   So now the taxpayers are paying the rental fee for these RV's.  I don't know how much the daily rental rate would be for an RV, or if there's a special quarantine rate.   And then add on the round the clock security to guard the empty RV's.   

https://www.kiro7.com/news/local/coronavirus-taking-toll-king-county-public-health-staff-funds-ahead-possible-outbreak/2TQTK7GS6BHZREA4PRDY7PMFQI/     

[BeachGal]

Los Alamos National Lab came out with new numbers yesterday in a preprint that is yet to be peer reviewed. The authors are considered to be top notch, though.

COVID19 is more infectious than we were being led to believe. In Wuhan, it’s R0 (R naught, rate of transmissibility) is 4.7 - 6.6. 6.6 is the upper limit and it’s likely a bit lower. However, it is 2-3 times more infectious than previously thought.

Many variables are used to calculate R0. It can change from region to region, among different populations, etc. The virus also mutates and that can affect it as well. Likely, it will be better in some areas and worse in others.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.07.20021154v1

 

 

[Pen]

1 hour ago, gardenmom5 said:

My friend Im'd it, with specific instructions to not actually post it to FB - but IM only (as FB takes it down, and bans the poster). I dont' know how to download it from FB IM.  if you have a FB account, I'd be happy to IM it to you.  I know it's possible to DL from FB - but I'm not sure how to do it for an IM'd message.

I've asked if to send it to me as an email attachment if she has it that way.  But it is clearly Senator Cotton, General Townsend of AfricaCommand, and an Admiral whose name I don't recall.

 

Senator Cotton has been saying it could have originated as a laboratory bio weapon or similar for awhile .  There was an article in Business Insider that might have been linked upthread.  

 

[Pen]

1 hour ago, Laurie said:

This is what's bothering me.   The head of the local health department was shown on the local news last night.  He was addressing the county council to let them know how their resources are insufficient for monitoring people in isolation and preparing for a more widespread outbreak.  The officials keep saying that the risk to the public is very low while at the same time saying that there's an increasing likelihood of an outbreak here.  WHICH IS IT??????  

 

Both?????

risk of widespread outbreak (outside of Asia) today: low

likelihood of widespread outbreak (outside of Asia) sometime in coming  weeks / months: high

?????

that is my understanding 

 

Risk near China  (now add Singapore and maybe other places too) airplane arrivals flight hubs higher.  Risk near tourist destinations, international students destinations and transnational business  hubs higher.  

Then likely to spread out. 

(ETA: though of course with modern travel, “spread out” could be via a flight going thousands of miles, or someone going by car to a ski chalet...)

 

Edited February 12, 2020 by Pen

[Pen]

https://www.c-span.org/video/?c4851492/user-clip-senator-tom-cotton-admits-coronavirus-lab

possibly one of the original sources for whatever  is being said about what Cotton said

[prairiewindmomma]

Singapore's PM: 

 

[RootAnn]

I like the Singapore PM's talk. Seems straight forward with current plan plus what happens if things get worse.

[Pen]

I thing the PM of Singapore speech re covid19 linked above is excellent.

and most of his suggestions (with modifications as needed) seem applicable elsewhere than Singapore 

 

[Laurie]

I watched the Singapore PM's talk.  

 A couple of things I learned:

1.  When the government hoards things like masks it's called stockpiling.  But you citizens shouldn't try to HOARD things like facemasks or instant noodles.

2. When the government says the disease was imported from China and other cases can be traced to imported cases, that's okay.  But all you citizens out there better not blame particular groups for the outbreak.  

 

[Garga]

I missed a few pages in the middle. Has anyone talked about what it means to be in a quarantined city?  I can’t seem to find what I want on google.

In a quarantined city/town, is the water still running?  Do waterwork people still go to work?  What about electricity?  Are the people at the electric company still going to work?  

How do people get food?  Do grocery store workers still show up at work?  Or are the food stores all closed because the workers have to stay home (or refuse to come in)?

If we were under quarantine here, would our water and heat and gas eventually stop working? 

I was going to buy a few extra groceries so that if we had to stay home for 2-3 weeks under quarantine we’d have food, but then got to thinking, “What if I turn on the water to boil some pasta and there’s no water?  And no gas for the stove? How would I make spaghetti?”  Would we all just be eating cold beans out of cans?

 

If you have to stay home for 14 days (or maybe 24, because upthread there was an indication that maybe it can take 24 days for symptoms to show), and you need a gallon a day per person, times the 4 people in my house...that means we’d need  between 56 and 96 gallons of water if we had to stay home without working water.  I don’t know. I had been thinking, ‘Maybe I’ll keep a few gallons of water in the basement if we have to stay under home quarantine at some point,’ but if it’s real and serious and we have to stay in our house, I just don’t know how to go about getting 56 or 96 gallons of water.  So, I’m guessing that the second that water and electricity and gas goes out, it’s anarchy and chaos. People can’t stay at home without those things.

So...I guess those quarantined cities in China still have people showing up for work at the water/electric/gas plants.  

 

Edited February 12, 2020 by Garga

[Katy]

1 hour ago, Laurie said:

This is what's bothering me.   The head of the local health department was shown on the local news last night.  He was addressing the county council to let them know how their resources are insufficient for monitoring people in isolation and preparing for a more widespread outbreak.  The officials keep saying that the risk to the public is very low while at the same time saying that there's an increasing likelihood of an outbreak here.  WHICH IS IT??????  

 According to the news story,  the government wants people and businesses to have a plan to reduce exposure to this virus.   Terms  like "social isolation" to avoid sick people are being used.   But based on other stories I've seen, it makes me wonder what happens  if you decide to avoid places like Chinatown/International District because you think you might be more likely to be exposed to someone with ties to the outbreak area in China...you're now some kind of racist/xenophobe for thinking like this?      

I learned that the quarantine RV's are still empty but have 24 hour security from the state patrol.   So now the taxpayers are paying the rental fee for these RV's.  I don't know how much the daily rental rate would be for an RV, or if there's a special quarantine rate.   And then add on the round the clock security to guard the empty RV's.   

https://www.kiro7.com/news/local/coronavirus-taking-toll-king-county-public-health-staff-funds-ahead-possible-outbreak/2TQTK7GS6BHZREA4PRDY7PMFQI/     

 

It's both.  They know they don't have the resources either.  It's super contagious, it has a long incubation period, in at some people have very minimal symptoms and others die.

I think they are hoping that it will take 6 weeks to really get out, by then in most places it will be spring and UV light and humidity will stop the spread just like other colds, and hopefully by next winter they'll either have had more time to prepare OR there will be a vaccine.

Basically, you might want to stock up on 6 weeks of emergency nonperishable food and supplies vs the typical 10-14 days.

 

3 minutes ago, Garga said:

I missed a few pages in the middle. Has anyone talked about what it means to be in a quarantined city?  I can’t seem to find what I want on google.

In a quarantined city/town, is the water still running?  Do waterwork people still go to work?  What about electricity?  Are the people at the electric company still going to work?  

How do people go get food?  Do grocery store workers still show up at work?  Or are the food stores all closed because the workers have to stay home (or refuse to come in)?

If we were under quarantine here, would our water and heat and gas eventually stop working? 

I was going to buy a few extra groceries so that if we had to stay home for 2-3 weeks under quarnatine we’d have food, but then got to thinking, “What if I turn on the water to make some pasta and there’s no water?  And no gas for the stove? How would I make spaghetti?”  Would we all just be eating cold beans out of cans?

 

 

I don't think it's been talked about, but I've watched several vlogs of English speaking people in Wuhan.

Water is still running. Electricity is still working. I have no idea who is allowed to work. Shops are still open, and the government was airlifting food and water in to stores.  One man vlogged going out to a couple places to get pasta, milk and bottled water.  He had to go to a shop he usually doesn't go to for water, but that was okay.  He went out in the early morning hours (1am?) to avoid people.

As to what would happen here...  It hasn't been done in the USA except for things like natural disaster zones for so many years it's hard to know, but chances are all "essential" employees such as police utility and health care workers would be required to work around the clock and possibly sleep at work. The national guard might be called in.  When electricity doesn't work here most stores aren't open, and supplies are not delivered by a communist government, so it's difficult to know.  It might begin to look a bit like Puerto Rico after a hurricane if it went months on end.

It's never a bad idea to have at least 2 weeks of non-perishable food that doesn't need much cooking on hand.  In the event you lose power and gas you might be able to cook on a campstove, or try a backpacker's trick and make an alcohol stove out of some soda cans (lots of options for that on YouTube), or do what many people do in economic disasters and find a place to light a fire out of anything you have around and cook over that.

If you'd rather not rough it, go to anyplace that sells camping stuff (Walmart), get a 2-burner portable stove and a bunch of fuel canisters, and one of those dispensers for 4-8 gallon jugs of water.  Then you need whatever you usually eat, but several big jugs of water (1-2 gallons per person per day), rice, beans, canned veggies in any variety you like, spaghettios or soups are all cheap options. 

Close to ten years ago we knew someone with a pentagon connection who warned us to go buy disaster supplies TODAY.    For several years after that we were careful to have a month of water and almost a year of food stored at all times. Not something extravagant, but enough for everyone in the family to have one serving of vegetables and fruits each day, and get 1200 calories of rice and beans and at least a tablespoon of oil and chicken bouillon powder.  We already had camping & backpacking gear and water filters.  At the time I think it cost less than $300 for all of the huge bags of rice, beans, and bouillon I bought at Sam's club.  I seriously doubt I have a year's worth today.  For one thing our family is bigger, and for another I rotate the rice so it doesn't get buggy and we haven't bought any for a few years.  But anyway if you're concerned about it you could probably do something similar very inexpensively.

Oh, you can also make a kid project out of making a solar stove or one of those insulated bags you put around a pot so it cooks slowly all day even though you only cook it once in the morning.  Wonderbag, I think they are called.  There are lots of directions for both on YouTube.

[Arcadia]

17 minutes ago, Garga said:

I missed a few pages in the middle. Has anyone talked about what it means to be in a quarantined city?  I can’t seem to find what I want on google.

In a quarantined city/town, is the water still running?  Do waterwork people still go to work?  What about electricity?  Are the people at the electric company still going to work?  

How do people get food?  Do grocery store workers still show up at work?  Or are the food stores all closed because the workers have to stay home (or refuse to come in)?

If we were under quarantine here, would our water and heat and gas eventually stop working? 

The Russians in quarantine due to COVID-19 (wuhan) describes their experience on Instagram https://www.businessinsider.com/quarantined-russians-are-capturing-their-confinement-on-social-media-2020-2

In a quarantined city utilities workers still work. Food stores are still open. People in wuhan are able to buy food and other essentials, just not leave the city. In China’s case, the govt can always deploy the PLA to help keep all utilities services running. Wuhan people have electricity, gas, water, internet access and food supplies. Medical supplies are the shortage which is common in any unexpected epidemic. 

For people who are quarantined at home, the local government might be the ones providing food and water to their doorstep. My county does that and the govt in my country of origin does that. 

Water, heat and gas as well as electricity have never been stopped in a quarantine. 

The prep you are describing is what people living in earthquake and other natural disasters area have to prep. A major earthquake would mean that water pipes would get damaged, electricity outages would be normal, gas supplies would have to be shutoff. So if you might have to prep for a natural disaster where you have to worry about buying a waterless composting toilet and/or spare generator, then prep accordingly. I would not prep to have no electricity, gas and water for longer than a week unless you have lots of empty/unused space in your house.

[Pen]

31 minutes ago, Garga said:

I missed a few pages in the middle. Has anyone talked about what it means to be in a quarantined city?  I can’t seem to find what I want on google.

In a quarantined city/town, is the water still running?  Do waterwork people still go to work?  What about electricity?  Are the people at the electric company still going to work?  

How do people get food?  Do grocery store workers still show up at work?  Or are the food stores all closed because the workers have to stay home (or refuse to come in)?

If we were under quarantine here, would our water and heat and gas eventually stop working? 

I was going to buy a few extra groceries so that if we had to stay home for 2-3 weeks under quarantine we’d have food, but then got to thinking, “What if I turn on the water to boil some pasta and there’s no water?  And no gas for the stove? How would I make spaghetti?”  Would we all just be eating cold beans out of cans?

 

If you have to stay home for 14 days (or maybe 24, because upthread there was an indication that maybe it can take 24 days for symptoms to show), and you need a gallon a day per person, times the 4 people in my house...that means we’d need  between 56 and 96 gallons of water if we had to stay home without working water.  I don’t know. I had been thinking, ‘Maybe I’ll keep a few gallons of water in the basement if we have to stay under home quarantine at some point,’ but if it’s real and serious and we have to stay in our house, I just don’t know how to go about getting 56 or 96 gallons of water.  So, I’m guessing that the second that water and electricity and gas goes out, it’s anarchy and chaos. People can’t stay at home without those things.

So...I guess those quarantined cities in China still have people showing up for work at the water/electric/gas plants.  

 

 

We live in a rural area in PNW and routinely have to cope with electric outage due to storms and/or being cut off from city, stores, etc due to flooded areas or ice.  (Also in summer wildfires happen though thankfully I have not been personally affected by more than horrible heavy smoke conditions.)   We are low priority for restoration and have been without for several weeks.  It does get old even if not feeling sick. 

I actually need to replenish as we are currently between flooding with more heavy weather fronts expected in a few days. 

We have several 5 gallon plastic water bottles for use to drink at such times.   If I think we are likely to lose power I try to fill up empties and stick them somewhere convenient. Or not terribly inconvenient anyhow. 

 I also keep a couple galvanized garbage cans of water for washing, filling toilet tank etc.   one of my garbage cans is too low now to dip a pail into it and needs a refill which I do with a garden hose.   I’m not sure their size, but quite a lot bigger than the bottles. 

We lose running water when electricity goes out because our well is electric. 

Water in nearest cities to us would keep going quite awhile because of the way it is fed (gravity from river, reservoir, by and large),  but that can depend on the infrastructure of a particular place and also on the type of emergency.

When I was in CAlif for a bad earthquake, many places around did lose natural gas due to line ruptures and fires. But that’s less likely to be a problem in an epidemic / quarantine.  

In Wuhan some companies that deliver are making deliveries to avoid person to person contact.  But as time goes on I gather  supplies are getting low from outside the city to restock the city with.  

Then government supplies can start playing a role and there were discussions I read about how safely to get supplies in to Wuhan via truck etc. 

 

[Arcadia]

2 hours ago, Laurie said:

This is what's bothering me.   The head of the local health department was shown on the local news last night.  He was addressing the county council to let them know how their resources are insufficient for monitoring people in isolation and preparing for a more widespread outbreak.  The officials keep saying that the risk to the public is very low while at the same time saying that there's an increasing likelihood of an outbreak here.  WHICH IS IT??????  

 

10 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

That was similar to the uk.  They deemed it a significant risk so they could enforce quarantine but then said it was low risk to individuals.

my suspicion is there is a significant risk and they are trying to avoid panic buying, share market crash etc.  and of course no one wants to press the panic button.

The high risk that are talk about on social media are

1) Superspreader e.g. the UK person Steve Walsh, and people are guessing Diamond Princess might have super spreaders too

2) complacency in boosting medical stockpile (e.g. masks, Medical protective garments) and having workable contingency plans

Low risk in other countries is in terms of cases per population and chance of being infected due to the low number of cases. For example, Singapore has 50 cases in a population greater than 5million. The chance of getting infected is supposedly low.  My county has two confirmed cases, with an estimated population of 1.9 million. I received a pamphlet from my healthcare provider through the patient portal email detailing what to do if I suspect me or family members are infected. 

The Japanese govt is probably the most stressed (outside of China) as they deal with the Diamond Princess cruise ship. They are supplying medication to the passengers who have run out of specialized medicine (high blood pressure, diabetes, etc). While the Westerdam would rather dock in Japan than in Cambodia, Japan can’t and should not have to shoulder the responsibilities and expenses for another cruise ship. 

[Carrie12345]

1 hour ago, Laurie said:

I watched the Singapore PM's talk.  

 A couple of things I learned:

1.  When the government hoards things like masks it's called stockpiling.  But you citizens shouldn't try to HOARD things like facemasks or instant noodles.

2. When the government says the disease was imported from China and other cases can be traced to imported cases, that's okay.  But all you citizens out there better not blame particular groups for the outbreak.  

 

Hoarding is when items are in limited supply and a small number of people snap them all up, leaving a much larger number without.

This is why emergency preparedness is important.  ANYONE can stock up on ANYTHING when there is no emergency, because more will be made and shipped quickly and efficiently.  When everyone waits until there IS an emergency, they wipe out full supplies and who knows when more will be available.

ETA: Make that anything but prescription meds. 

 

Edited February 12, 2020 by Carrie12345

[Pen]

Having lived in places with basic things going out due to earthquake, flooding, or other reasons like that, usually it isn’t anarchy and chaos, no. 

Mostly people have helped each other out.   

In an epidemic that might mean leaving bags of stuff on someone’s doorstep rather than direct contact.  

 

58 minutes ago, Garga said:

o, I’m guessing that the second that water and electricity and gas goes out, it’s anarchy and chaos. People can’t stay at home without those thing

 

It need not be anarchy and chaos unless people panic and react in an anarchic and chaotic fashion.

and of course people can stay home without electricity and gas.  Use plenty of blankets.  Use up ones raw and perishable foods first as able, then things like cans and boxed... 

water needed, yes, but city water unlikely to stop and if it does keep in mind places like hot water heater tank, clean toilet tank, that will still have some, if you otherwise run out

[Arcadia]

1 hour ago, Laurie said:

I watched the Singapore PM's talk.  

 A couple of things I learned:

1.  When the government hoards things like masks it's called stockpiling.  But you citizens shouldn't try to HOARD things like facemasks or instant noodles.

2. When the government says the disease was imported from China and other cases can be traced to imported cases, that's okay.  But all you citizens out there better not blame particular groups for the outbreak.  

 

1) the govt is supposed to have an emergency stockpile. When citizens hoard, it reflects badly on the govt because the implication is that people believe the govt stockpile is inadequate. It’s an embarrassment 

2) racial harmony. It is still very fragile despite 50 years of nation building. It is okay for people to say the wuhan delegation to the Servomax conference at Grand Hyatt were the origin for Singapore cases. It is not okay to say all PRC are germ carriers.  The govt allow a lot of foreign workers into Singapore. People are upset and venting. 30k China citizens are due back to work in Singapore. 

[Ausmumof3]

4 hours ago, Laurie said:

This is what's bothering me.   The head of the local health department was shown on the local news last night.  He was addressing the county council to let them know how their resources are insufficient for monitoring people in isolation and preparing for a more widespread outbreak.  The officials keep saying that the risk to the public is very low while at the same time saying that there's an increasing likelihood of an outbreak here.  WHICH IS IT??????  

 According to the news story,  the government wants people and businesses to have a plan to reduce exposure to this virus.   Terms  like "social isolation" to avoid sick people are being used.   But based on other stories I've seen, it makes me wonder what happens  if you decide to avoid places like Chinatown/International District because you think you might be more likely to be exposed to someone with ties to the outbreak area in China...you're now some kind of racist/xenophobe for thinking like this?      

I learned that the quarantine RV's are still empty but have 24 hour security from the state patrol.   So now the taxpayers are paying the rental fee for these RV's.  I don't know how much the daily rental rate would be for an RV, or if there's a special quarantine rate.   And then add on the round the clock security to guard the empty RV's.   

https://www.kiro7.com/news/local/coronavirus-taking-toll-king-county-public-health-staff-funds-ahead-possible-outbreak/2TQTK7GS6BHZREA4PRDY7PMFQI/     

I found a lady on twitter who claims to have worked for the WHO in communication before.  She suggested they are changing the narrative to imply a slowing of the spread rather than a complete stop.  Also on one tweet she mentioned being disappointed with the excessive downplaying and reassurance.  
She seems to be legit though of course she could be making it all up.

i personally prefer the completely open approach of a country like Singapore.  Actually trust your citizens to be able to receive and understand accurate information instead of supplying dumbed down sound bites.

[Ausmumof3]

This was one link shared by the twitter lady which seems helpful in interpreting the mixed messaging

https://www.psandman.com/articles/Wuhan-nCoV-list.htm

[Carrie12345]

1 hour ago, Pen said:

 

and of course people can stay home without electricity and gas.  Use plenty of blankets.  Use up ones raw and perishable foods first as able, then things like cans and boxed... 

 

Well, that is debatable, especially for the elderly.  During Sandy, my house got *way* cold, and that was October.  We’re going to hit single digits this week, and my run of the mill fireplace isn’t going to cut it.  My family could pretty much manage with tons of blankets in front of the fire and able bodied people to do the wood, but not everyone has a fireplace, cords of wood, and able bodies.  Also, my family would be miserable, lol.  Alive, but still uncomfortably cold at times.

[mathnerd]

17 minutes ago, Carrie12345 said:

Well, that is debatable, especially for the elderly.  

I agree. My parents are both elderly and depend on outside sources for their daily meals (cannot cook due to mobility and health issues) and have to leave their house to go to the hospital for weekly visits. I am not sure how they can isolate themselves in case of an outbreak. 

[Pen]

20 minutes ago, Carrie12345 said:

Well, that is debatable, especially for the elderly.  During Sandy, my house got *way* cold, and that was October.  We’re going to hit single digits this week, and my run of the mill fireplace isn’t going to cut it.  My family could pretty much manage with tons of blankets in front of the fire and able bodied people to do the wood, but not everyone has a fireplace, cords of wood, and able bodies.  Also, my family would be miserable, lol.  Alive, but still uncomfortably cold at times.

 

Uncomfortable? Sure.  Maybe some deaths? Sure, but otoh probably balanced by fewer car crashes as people stay home.

 

 I get cranky hearing that not being able to cook spaghetti as usual means needing to have chaos and anarchy. 

 

Edited February 12, 2020 by Pen

[Arcadia]

14 minutes ago, mathnerd said:

I agree. My parents are both elderly and depend on outside sources for their daily meals (cannot cook due to mobility and health issues) and have to leave their house to go to the hospital for weekly visits. I am not sure how they can isolate themselves in case of an outbreak. 

Cooked food delivery services that delivers home cooked meals daily are common in Asia. The food in a bag is left outside the door at designated time blocks every day. For convenience, food can be in takeout containers so the elderly do not have to worry about washing, drying and putting back the containers for the delivery person to pick up the next day. There is tingkat/tiffin delivery in my area. 

e.g. local http://localservices.sulekha.com/food-meal-catering-in-santa-clara-ca

Singapore https://thesmartlocal.com/read/tingkat-delivery/

In case of an outbreak, the hospital would likely have a set of SOP to follow, which might involved either mobile clinics (vans, trucks) for things like blood tests, ultrasounds, dialysis, etc. or video conferencing with their doctors instead of in office visit. 

[Garga]

31 minutes ago, Pen said:

 

Uncomfortable? Sure.  Maybe some deaths? Sure, but otoh probably balanced by fewer car crashes as people stay home.

 

 I get cranky hearing that not being able to cook spaghetti as usual means needing to have chaos and anarchy. 

 

 I didn’t say that not being able to cook spaghetti causes chaos and anarchy. That would be silly. My focus was mainly on if the water supply was cut off. We die without water in 3 days.  And much of the food we would eat requires water or heat to cook.  We die in a month or so without food and we get pretty darn hungry by the 3rd day in.  Not everyone will be able to pull together an alternate method of cooking food. Tthink of a city of millions, all hungry, all trying to figure out how to cook food. Or picture people trying to find lakes and streams nearby for water—millions of people.    

So...no means to obtain or cook food for a few weeks?  No water for 4 days?  It very well could lead to chaos and probably anarchy as people get desperate not to literally die from not having water.  

It wasn’t about the spaghetti. That was just my thinking, “I’ll stock up on spaghetti noodles...oh wait...what if there’s no water to cook it in?  Hang on...what if there’s no water to even drink??  What happens after a week of that?  Chaos?”. And then here I was asking about whether or not quarantines would lead to no workers at water plants and how that is all working in China.

Edited February 12, 2020 by Garga

[Arcadia]

From CNA https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/world/us-health-authority-shipped-faulty-coronavirus-test-kits-across-12429566

(ETA: NY times link 

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/12/health/coronavirus-test-kits-cdc.html)

“US health authority shipped faulty coronavirus test kits across country: Official

13 Feb 2020 05:55AM

World

WASHINGTON: A number of test kits sent out by US health authorities to labs across the country to diagnose the deadly novel coronavirus are faulty, a senior official said on Wednesday (Feb 12).

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) began shipping 200 test kids nationwide on Feb 5 to speed up the diagnosis of US cases of COVID-19, which currently number 13.

But the labs reported that while performing a verification procedure they realised the kits were returning inconclusive results, meaning neither positive nor negative, said senior CDC official Nancy Messonnier.

"We think that the issue at the stage, can be explained by one reagent that isn't performing as it should, consistently," she said, referring to one the substances used in the kit. "And that's why we are remanufacturing that reagent."

For now, the testing of all patient specimens will continue to be carried out at the CDC's headquarters in Atlanta, Georgia.

The US is shipping the test kit to 36 countries that have placed orders, and each kit can be used approximately 700 to 800 times.”

 

Edited February 13, 2020 by Arcadia

[mathnerd]

22 minutes ago, Arcadia said:

In case of an outbreak, the hospital would likely have a set of SOP to follow, which might involved either mobile clinics (vans, trucks) for things like blood tests, ultrasounds, dialysis, etc. or video conferencing with their doctors instead of in office visit. 

Thanks for this information. I guess that this is how it will go for them if outbreaks start.

@Garga I wondered how singaporeans would cook their instant ramen if there was a situation where there was no drinking water available.

As for myself, I am now debating if I should run down to costco and pick up bottled water, canned soup etc.

[Carrie12345]

50 minutes ago, Pen said:

 

Uncomfortable? Sure.  Maybe some deaths? Sure, but otoh probably balanced by fewer car crashes as people stay home.

 

 I get cranky hearing that not being able to cook spaghetti as usual means needing to have chaos and anarchy. 

 

I disagree. My township has thousands of residents, more than a few in a trailer park.  We have several car accidents/month, maybe averaging about 1/week that need emergency services, and maybe one every other year that’s a fatality. 
We get the occasional power outage and have to open up warming stations for people who can’t heat their house.  I’m very confident that some of those people would die. More than we lose in accidents in decades.

As for spaghetti, I’ve seen what happens when a tiny development is put on a SIP for less than 2 days.  They FREAKED on social media about how they had no food to eat.  Two. Days.  I think it’s generous to estimate that maybe half of them would figure out how to survive eventually. But they’d cause chaos first.

[Garga]

8 minutes ago, mathnerd said:

Thanks for this information. I guess that this is how it will go for them if outbreaks start.

@Garga I wondered how singaporeans would cook their instant ramen if there was a situation where there was no drinking water available.

As for myself, I am now debating if I should run down to costco and pick up bottled water, canned soup etc.

That was my first thought, too!!

I’m thinking cold spaghettios right from the can are the answer. I can eat my spaghetti and no water necessary 😎 

Edited February 12, 2020 by Garga

[Pen]

24 minutes ago, Garga said:

 I didn’t say that not being able to cook spaghetti causes chaos and anarchy. That would be silly. My focus was mainly on if the water supply was cut off. We die without water in 3 days.  And much of the food we would eat requires water or heat to cook.  We die in a month or so without food and we get pretty darn hungry by the 3rd day in.  Not everyone will be able to pull together an alternate method of cooking food. Tthink of a city of millions, all hungry, all trying to figure out how to cook food. Or picture people trying to find lakes and streams nearby for water—millions of people.    

So...no means to obtain or cook food for a few weeks?  No water for 4 days?  It very well could lead to chaos and probably anarchy as people get desperate not to literally die from not having water.  

It wasn’t about the spaghetti. That was just my thinking, “I’ll stock up on spaghetti noodles...oh wait...what if there’s no water to cook it in?  Hang on...what if there’s no water to even drink??  What happens after a week of that?  Chaos?”. And then here I was asking about whether or not quarantines would lead to no workers at water plants and how that is all working in China.

 

Yeah.  Ok I get it.

water being critical is why I mentioned garbage cans as a way to store quite a few gallons of water.   It means that clean drinking water can be all u have as special good supplies, and you could recalculate what drinking / cooking water u need compared to all water .  Many of us don’t actually drink 8 glasses per day.  

 

 

The garbage can method Might not work in a tiny apartment (though a filled bathtub worth could help), but is doable in many a suburban house type situation.  Ours is in our basement where it doesn’t tend to freeze.  Makes it hard when needing to carry the wash water up stairs, but is not impossible.  I save a certain amount of things like empty bottles that are easy to grip to wash hands etc with during outages.

 

Cooking something like spaghetti — which is water wasteful isn’t something I’d do in a low water situation.   

We don’t tend to cook from scratch at all when our electric goes out.  

We have things like instant oatmeal (where all water added is used), canned soup, Chili, beans...   that are much easier to manage.  

 

 

[Arcadia]

24 minutes ago, mathnerd said:

 

@Garga I wondered how singaporeans would cook their instant ramen if there was a situation where there was no drinking water available.

As for myself, I am now debating if I should run down to costco and pick up bottled water, canned soup etc.

Instant ramen can be eaten without cooking. It’s like eating dehydrated cooked noodles. 

You could always do a Costco run for earthquake prep food rations. Remember when the smog from the wildfires make people reluctant to go out. That would be how much soup and water stockpile I would aim for. 

[Pen]

25 minutes ago, Carrie12345 said:

I disagree. My township has thousands of residents, more than a few in a trailer park.  We have several car accidents/month, maybe averaging about 1/week that need emergency services, and maybe one every other year that’s a fatality. 
We get the occasional power outage and have to open up warming stations for people who can’t heat their house.  I’m very confident that some of those people would die. More than we lose in accidents in decades.

As for spaghetti, I’ve seen what happens when a tiny development is put on a SIP for less than 2 days.  They FREAKED on social media about how they had no food to eat.  Two. Days.  I think it’s generous to estimate that maybe half of them would figure out how to survive eventually. But they’d cause chaos first.

 

What’s a SIP?

 

as to your area neighbors, I am sure you know them better than I do

 

we reliably get power outages and other problems so I guess it isn’t such a big deal. I guess if it is super rare it might freak people out more.  Our electric utility cooperative publishes a list of outage supplies to keep on hand.   It happens every winter pretty much,  some winters several times.   Here fatalities from that are far rarer than from car crashes.   

I think fatalities from CO poison or fire from fires made during outages are more common than death by hypothermia of people who stay inside and bundle up. 

Different in different places clearly. 

[Arcadia]

@Pen @Garga

Since PG&E have power shut offs, they have a one page checklist for going without power for a week. https://www.pge.com/includes/docs/pdfs/safety/preparedness/kit/Be-Prepared-Emergency-Checklist.pdf

FEMA’s 13 page guide (16 page pdf) https://www.fema.gov/pdf/library/f&web.pdf

[Ausmumof3]

1 hour ago, Arcadia said:

From CNA https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/world/us-health-authority-shipped-faulty-coronavirus-test-kits-across-12429566

(ETA: NY times link 

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/12/health/coronavirus-test-kits-cdc.html)

But the flaw was actually discovered, C.D.C. officials said, before the kits had been shipped overseas. Dr. Nancy Messonnier, director of the National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, had said during a news briefing Wednesday morning that the international shipments had been sent, but later in the afternoon said she was mistaken and the test kits had not been distributed to other countries.

So i would like to ask , is that the reason why 200 over cases on pending still no result ? If that is so why didnt the government say so ? Why hide the truth again ?

“US health authority shipped faulty coronavirus test kits across country: Official

13 Feb 2020 05:55AM

World

WASHINGTON: A number of test kits sent out by US health authorities to labs across the country to diagnose the deadly novel coronavirus are faulty, a senior official said on Wednesday (Feb 12).

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) began shipping 200 test kids nationwide on Feb 5 to speed up the diagnosis of US cases of COVID-19, which currently number 13.

But the labs reported that while performing a verification procedure they realised the kits were returning inconclusive results, meaning neither positive nor negative, said senior CDC official Nancy Messonnier.

"We think that the issue at the stage, can be explained by one reagent that isn't performing as it should, consistently," she said, referring to one the substances used in the kit. "And that's why we are remanufacturing that reagent."

For now, the testing of all patient specimens will continue to be carried out at the CDC's headquarters in Atlanta, Georgia.

The US is shipping the test kit to 36 countries that have placed orders, and each kit can be used approximately 700 to 800 times.”

 

Hopefully this doesn’t explain the lack of positives for Indonesia.  Might explain the weak positive here

[Ausmumof3]

BREAKING: Epicenter of coronavirus outbreak reports 14,840 new cases, including clinically diagnosed cases, and 242 new deaths
from BNO

scary if true

60,016 and 1,357 fatalities 

[Arcadia]

18 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Hopefully this doesn’t explain the lack of positives for Indonesia.  Might explain the weak positive here

the part after The NY Times link was a comment by someone who has paywall access. Forgot to delete when adding the NY Times link. Apparently none of the faulty kits were sent out of US yet.

[Pen]

@Garga @Carrie12345 @mathnerd

Another prep type list

https://hrec.coop/safety/outage-preparation/

[Pen]

Red Cross list:

https://www.redcross.org/content/dam/redcross/atg/PDF_s/Preparedness___Disaster_Recovery/Disaster_Preparedness/Power_Outage/PowerOutage.pdf

 

[Arcadia]

16 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

BREAKING: Epicenter of coronavirus outbreak reports 14,840 new cases, including clinically diagnosed cases, and 242 new deaths
from BNO

scary if true

60,016 and 1,357 fatalities 

report from Health Commission of Hubei Province  http://wjw.hubei.gov.cn/fbjd/dtyw/202002/t20200213_2025581.shtml

Google translate of one paragraph 

“At 02:00 and 24:00 on February 12, 2020, Hubei Province newly added 14,840 new cases of pneumonia (including 13332 clinically diagnosed cases), of which: 13436 in Wuhan, 37 in Huangshi, 26 in Shiyan, and 13 in Xiangyang Cases, 26 in Yichang, 321 in Jingzhou, 231 in Jingmen, 204 in Ezhou, 123 in Xiaogan, 264 in Huanggang, 9 in Xianning, 31 in Suizhou, 26 in Enshi, 20 in Xiantao There were 69 cases in Tianmen City and 4 cases in Qianjiang City.
 

There were 242 new deaths (including 135 clinically diagnosed cases) in the province, of which: 216 in Wuhan, 3 in Huangshi, 1 in Xiangyang, 3 in Yichang, 2 in Jingzhou, 2 in Ezhou, and Xiaogan There were 4 cases in Huangshi City, 4 cases in Huanggang City, 1 case in Xianning City, 2 cases in Suizhou City, 1 case in Enshi Prefecture, and 3 cases in Xiantao City.
 

There were 802 new hospital discharges (including 423 clinically diagnosed cases), including: 538 in Wuhan, 17 in Huangshi, 11 in Shiyan, 6 in Xiangyang, 10 in Yichang, 22 in Jingzhou, and 11 in Jingmen 23 in Ezhou, 28 in Xiaogan, 89 in Huanggang, 19 in Xianning, 11 in Suizhou, 10 in Enshi, 5 in Xiantao, 1 in Tianmen, and 1 in Shennongjia Forest District.”

[Carrie12345]

55 minutes ago, Pen said:

What’s a SIP?

Shelter In Place.

Me and mine are good to go! Well, stay, lol. But most people are extremely unprepared for anything more than a 24 hour glitch in the universe.

[Ausmumof3]

43 minutes ago, Pen said:

@Garga @Carrie12345 @mathnerd

Another prep type list

https://hrec.coop/safety/outage-preparation/

Thanks for these

we have done a bit due to bushfire season but they require management and maintenance not just set and forget 

[RootAnn]

6 hours ago, Garga said:

In a quarantined city/town, is the water still running?  Do waterwork people still go to work?  What about electricity?  Are the people at the electric company still going to work? 

I can speak to the power situation, I think. The electric & water utilities have plans in place for such things. In the plan I'm personally familiar with, the utility workers are quarantined in place, at work. They basically cut to only required workers (all maintenance, all operators, a key team of engineers & managers) and everyone is put up on site until it is safe to go home. They work & sleep (on cots or the floor) in shifts with food delivered for the whole place.

The difficult part of this is if the workers have family who are sick. They would not be allowed to go home. But your power would stay on. Water would continue to flow. Waste water would be treated & discharged.

[Ausmumof3]

35 minutes ago, RootAnn said:

I can speak to the power situation, I think. The electric & water utilities have plans in place for such things. In the plan I'm personally familiar with, the utility workers are quarantined in place, at work. They basically cut to only required workers (all maintenance, all operators, a key team of engineers & managers) and everyone is put up on site until it is safe to go home. They work & sleep (on cots or the floor) in shifts with food delivered for the whole place.

The difficult part of this is if the workers have family who are sick. They would not be allowed to go home. But your power would stay on. Water would continue to flow. Waste water would be treated & discharged.

There was a study showing it can live in water for a while so I guess it’s worth having bottled water in case of contamination.

I like to have bottled water on standby anyway here. 

[Arcadia]

@momto2

From CNA https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asia/cambodia-cruise-ship-coronavirus-12429906

“(Updated: 13 Feb 2020 09:43AM)

HANOI: A cruise ship that had spent two weeks at sea after being turned away by five countries over fears that someone aboard may have the coronavirus arrived in Cambodia on Thursday (Feb 13), according to passengers and ship tracking data.

The MS Westerdam arrived at an anchoring point in the Cambodian port town of Sihanoukville early on Thursday morning, according to data published by the Marine Traffic website.

"We've had so many near moments we thought we were going home only to be turned away," Angela Jones, an American tourist on board the ship, told Reuters.

Jones and her fellow passengers had spent almost two weeks at sea as the ship failed to find a country that would allow it to dock.

"This morning, just seeing land was such a breathtaking moment," said Jones. 

"I thought: Is this real?"

Passengers onboard the ship have been subjected to regular health checks throughout the troubled journey, according to Holland America, the ship operator and a unit of Miami-based Carnival Corp.

...

Westerdam captain Vincent Smit said in a letter to passengers the ship would be at anchor outside Sihanoukville first to allow authorities to conduct health checks on board.

Most passengers will be able to disembark and begin their journey home via chartered flights from Phnom Penh, the Cambodian capital, from Feb 14, according to a copy of the letter seen by Reuters.

"We are very pleased to have our final plan," Smit said in the letter.

The US ambassador to Cambodia said he had dispatched a team to assist US citizens with disembarking and transferring to onward destinations and was coordinating with embassies of other nationalities.”

Edited February 13, 2020 by Arcadia

[Ausmumof3]

13 minutes ago, Arcadia said:

@momto2

From CNA https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asia/cambodia-cruise-ship-coronavirus-12429906

“(Updated: 13 Feb 2020 09:43AM)

HANOI: A cruise ship that had spent two weeks at sea after being turned away by five countries over fears that someone aboard may have the coronavirus arrived in Cambodia on Thursday (Feb 13), according to passengers and ship tracking data.

The MS Westerdam arrived at an anchoring point in the Cambodian port town of Sihanoukville early on Thursday morning, according to data published by the Marine Traffic website.

"We've had so many near moments we thought we were going home only to be turned away," Angela Jones, an American tourist on board the ship, told Reuters.

Jones and her fellow passengers had spent almost two weeks at sea as the ship failed to find a country that would allow it to dock.

"This morning, just seeing land was such a breathtaking moment," said Jones. 

"I thought: Is this real?"

Passengers onboard the ship have been subjected to regular health checks throughout the troubled journey, according to Holland America, the ship operator and a unit of Miami-based Carnival Corp.

...

Westerdam captain Vincent Smit said in a letter to passengers the ship would be at anchor outside Sihanoukville first to allow authorities to conduct health checks on board.

Most passengers will be able to disembark and begin their journey home via chartered flights from Phnom Penh, the Cambodian capital, from Feb 14, according to a copy of the letter seen by Reuters.

"We are very pleased to have our final plan," Smit said in the letter.

The US ambassador to Cambodia said he had dispatched a team to assist US citizens with disembarking and transferring to onward destinations and was coordinating with embassies of other nationalities.”

I’m glad they finally have a solution.  It sounds like everyone on board is well - I really hope so for Cambodia’s sake.

[Ausmumof3]

One thing I read about the Wuhan research lab was interesting.  The researcher there who studied coronavirus was studying the bat cave close by.  She said that about 3pc of the people living nearby had some kind of antibodies to the coronavirus indicating that there might be semi regular bat to human jumps with the virus but not followed by human to human transmission.

I guess I’ve been puzzling over the coincidence of the proximity of the lab but probably the choice of that location for that topic was based on proximity to the cave and the outbreak is also linked to proximity to the cave.  So it’s not really a coincidence but doesn’t imply necessarily a lab leak or something just that it’s logical that you’re going to study something in the place where it exists.

thats probably really convoluted but I can’t figure out how else to explain it.

[prairiewindmomma]

Wuhan is in the top ten cities of China in terms of total population. It’s also a really “old” city; it was the capital of the Yuan dynasty. It’s located along two major rivers. A ton of US companies have factories there.

I am not sure why people make such a big deal out of a lab being there, of all cities. It’s got the population base and university connections to be a research hub.

[prairiewindmomma]

Dh has coworkers based out of China. I asked yesterday how they were doing. He said they were tired of being stuck in their flats.

[Arcadia]

40 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

One thing I read about the Wuhan research lab was interesting.  The researcher there who studied coronavirus was studying the bat cave close by.  She said that about 3pc of the people living nearby had some kind of antibodies to the coronavirus indicating that there might be semi regular bat to human jumps with the virus but not followed by human to human transmission.

From The Morning Bulletin Australia https://m.themorningbulletin.com.au/news/bat-scientist-accused-of-unleashing-virus/3943096/

If you run a search using her name, Shi Zhengli, articles about her research will show up.

“But Prof Shi found something unusual in the people living near the Yunnan cave: 3 per cent had developed immunity to the viruses, proving the strains can and have infected humans in the past.

However, funding for the project dried up and the research into the virus now known to be a close relative to COVID-19 was suspended.

With scientists still unable to identify an intermediate host for COVID-19 (although snakes and pangolins have been discussed) the possibility it jumped directly from bats to humans is now being taken very seriously.

"Bats are reservoir hosts of several zoonotic viruses, including the Hendra and Nipah viruses, which have recently emerged in Australia and East Asia," Prof Shi wrote in her 2005 paper, which identified SARS for the first time.

"Bats may be persistently infected with many viruses but rarely display clinical symptoms. "These characteristics and the increasing presence of bats and bat products in food and traditional medicine markets in southern China and elsewhere in Asia led us to survey bats in the search for the natural reservoir of SARS-CoV."”