wuhan - coronavirus

[Acadie]

From the Business Insider link Pen posted above:

 

"China has relatively few doctors per capita compared with countries like the US, and those it does have are less well-trained.

According to Business Insider's Aria Bendix, China has less than two physicians for every 10,000 residents.

Only about 60% have undergraduate degrees, and only about 10% have graduate degrees, a radical difference from in European and North American health systems."

Is this true? Is the Chinese health care system primarily made up of doctors and medics with at most an undergrad degree, and only a small minority of physicians with advanced degrees? It's terrifying to think of all those health care professionals on the front lines who may not have had much training in isolation techniques, much less knowledge of how this virus behaves or enough equipment to safely provide care.

When I see photos of overflowing emergency rooms and hospital hallways, and quarantine centers with beds inches apart, I can only imagine the exponential growth of nosocomial infections among both patients and health care providers. 

Amy

[Pen]

42 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

The report I read said they had finger prick blood tests.  I actually thought the testing was via nasal swab?  Anyone know more about that?

 

US CDC specimen collection guidelines 

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/lab/guidelines-clinical-specimens.html

 

finger prick doesnt seem to be a way on the mentioned methods, though blood serum is mentioned in addition to swabs

[Pen]

1 minute ago, Acadie said:

From the Business Insider link Pen posted above:

 

"China has relatively few doctors per capita compared with countries like the US, and those it does have are less well-trained.

According to Business Insider's Aria Bendix, China has less than two physicians for every 10,000 residents.

Only about 60% have undergraduate degrees, and only about 10% have graduate degrees, a radical difference from in European and North American health systems."

Is this true? Is the Chinese health care system primarily made up of doctors and medics with at most an undergrad degree, and only a small minority of physicians with advanced degrees? It's terrifying to think of all those health care professionals on the front lines who may not have had much training in isolation techniques, much less knowledge of how this virus behaves or enough equipment to safely provide care.

When I see photos of overflowing emergency rooms and hospital hallways, and quarantine centers with beds inches apart, I can only imagine the exponential growth of nosocomial infections among both patients and health care providers. 

Amy

 

I don’t know .  

 

[Pen]

@Ausmumof3 where did you see that fingerpick was method used?

 

[Pen]

@Acadie

https://www.kevinmd.com/blog/2010/05/china-medical-school-residency-training.html

 

[BeachGal]

VA portion of people getting extremely sick probably are experiencing a cytokine storm which is more common than previously thought. About 10-15% of humans are believed to have the genetic mutations in about 10 or so proteins involved with the perforin pathway. Perforin is something your body uses to punch holes in cancer cells or pathogens. Then, a toxic substance is poured in to kill the cell. With the genetic mutations, though, cytokines have to work much harder and that is what seems to cause the storm. The problem is that a patient is sick from the virus and sick from the cytokine storm. Basically, there are two separate problems occurring. Cytokine storm almost always will have fever and very high serum ferritin.

Tamping down the cytokines with meds can be difficult but now there’s a blood-filtering device called CytoSorb which can filter out some of those excess cytokines. The company that makes it wants to use it in China.

https://www.ptcommunity.com/wire/cytosorb-wuhan-coronavirus-and-cytokine-storm

https://www.uab.edu/reporter/know-more/publications/item/8909-here-s-a-playbook-for-stopping-deadly-cytokine-storm-syndrome

The Lancet recently mentioned that a portion of the very sickest have cytokine storm. If that can be determined early on, the proper treatment can be given helping people to survive. This virus is pretty nasty and is making its way over here. Best to be informed.

 

ETA In people with the genetic mutations, cytokines will be multiplying as well, creating up to 5 times more.

Edited February 14, 2020 by BeachGal
Clarifying

[Pen]

https://www.thelancet.com/coronavirus?dgcid=kr_pop-up_tlcoronavirus20

lancet information resources if Link works

[mommyoffive]

10 hours ago, YaelAldrich said:

The one death attributed to Coronavirus is an 80-something just south of Tokyo. The taxi driver said he thinks he transported some Chinese.  I got this from NHK. My husband's leaving for Japan next week. Not changing his plans nor our daughter's plan to go in April. 

 

I hope they stay safe.   

I wonder what other people's plans are to travel in country and to Asia.  Would you travel to Asia right now?   Are you going to suspend any domestic travel?

[Ausmumof3]

And apparently back to 1383 fatalities after Hubei lowers their death toll due to “double counting”?!? 

[MrsMommy]

56 minutes ago, mommyoffive said:

 

I hope they stay safe.   

I wonder what other people's plans are to travel in country and to Asia.  Would you travel to Asia right now?   Are you going to suspend any domestic travel?

 

My husband was supposed to travel to Thailand for work next week, but yesterday his company decided to cancel the conference. While I'm not excessively worried about the virus, I am kind of relieved that he won't be cooped up on a plane for a long haul flight right now.

[Slache]

1 hour ago, Ausmumof3 said:

And apparently back to 1383 fatalities after Hubei lowers their death toll due to “double counting”?!? 

Counting made in China.

I'm so tired of their crap. It's really not a conspiracy theory when they have a long history of lying. The only question is how much are they lying about?

[Ausmumof3]

1 hour ago, mommyoffive said:

 

I hope they stay safe.   

I wonder what other people's plans are to travel in country and to Asia.  Would you travel to Asia right now?   Are you going to suspend any domestic travel?

I wouldn’t but I have pretty much zero experience with travel to non English speaking country so would struggle to navigate various situations that could come up.  I think if I was a more experienced traveller I’d have a different answer.  Does that make sense?

[Ausmumof3]

2 hours ago, Pen said:

@Ausmumof3 where did you see that fingerpick was method used?

 

I’m not sure

i think the only article I read was Bangkok post and rereading it’s not there now so may have been corrected?  Other sources say fluid test.

[Ausmumof3]

13 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

I’m not sure

i think the only article I read was Bangkok post and rereading it’s not there now so may have been corrected?  Other sources say fluid test.

https://www.khmertimeskh.com/50690519/arriving-passengers-onboard-westerdam-will-have-blood-samples-drawn-for-thorough-tests-for-coronavirus
 

I found it

but now article says blood and other samples

im just surprised because Australia is taking a couple of days minimum to clear people and it was a very quick turn around

[Ausmumof3]

2 hours ago, Acadie said:

From the Business Insider link Pen posted above:

 

"China has relatively few doctors per capita compared with countries like the US, and those it does have are less well-trained.

According to Business Insider's Aria Bendix, China has less than two physicians for every 10,000 residents.

Only about 60% have undergraduate degrees, and only about 10% have graduate degrees, a radical difference from in European and North American health systems."

Is this true? Is the Chinese health care system primarily made up of doctors and medics with at most an undergrad degree, and only a small minority of physicians with advanced degrees? It's terrifying to think of all those health care professionals on the front lines who may not have had much training in isolation techniques, much less knowledge of how this virus behaves or enough equipment to safely provide care.

When I see photos of overflowing emergency rooms and hospital hallways, and quarantine centers with beds inches apart, I can only imagine the exponential growth of nosocomial infections among both patients and health care providers. 

Amy

I have no idea.  I do know business insider seems to have variable reliability at times.

[Pen]

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/30/business/china-health-care-doctors.html?0p19G=0038

[Pen]

Above says 1 general practitioner per 6666 population. 

[Laura Corin]

4 hours ago, Acadie said:

From the Business Insider link Pen posted above:

 

"China has relatively few doctors per capita compared with countries like the US, and those it does have are less well-trained.

According to Business Insider's Aria Bendix, China has less than two physicians for every 10,000 residents.

Only about 60% have undergraduate degrees, and only about 10% have graduate degrees, a radical difference from in European and North American health systems."

Is this true? Is the Chinese health care system primarily made up of doctors and medics with at most an undergrad degree, 

Be a bit careful about these figures.  In the UK for example, medicine is a five year undergraduate degree. That doesn't necessarily mean it's a lesser degree, just taken earlier. 

https://www.gmc-uk.org/education/becoming-a-doctor-in-the-uk

Edited February 14, 2020 by Laura Corin

[Ausmumof3]

China health commission says 1,716 health workers have been infected and 6 have died

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-medics/china-says-1716-health-workers-infected-by-coronavirus-idUSKBN2080MA

 

[Ausmumof3]

Do we know much about the plasma treatment?  It sounds promising but how hard is it to produce something like this on a large enough scale?

[Carrie12345]

8 hours ago, BeachGal said:

A portion of people getting extremely sick probably are experiencing a cytokine storm which is more common than previously thought. About 10-15% of humans are believed to have the genetic mutations in about 10 or so proteins involved with the perforin pathway. Perforin is something your body uses to punch holes in cancer cells or pathogens. Then, a toxic substance is poured in to kill the cell. With the genetic mutations, though, cytokines have to work much harder and that is what seems to cause the storm. The problem is that a patient is sick from the virus and sick from the cytokine storm. Basically, there are two separate problems occurring. Cytokine storm almost always will have fever and very high serum ferritin.

Tamping down the cytokines with meds can be difficult but now there’s a blood-filtering device called CytoSorb which can filter out some of those excess cytokines. The company that makes it wants to use it in China.

https://www.ptcommunity.com/wire/cytosorb-wuhan-coronavirus-and-cytokine-storm

https://www.uab.edu/reporter/know-more/publications/item/8909-here-s-a-playbook-for-stopping-deadly-cytokine-storm-syndrome

The Lancet recently mentioned that a portion of the very sickest have cytokine storm. If that can be determined early on, the proper treatment can be given helping people to survive. This virus is pretty nasty and is making its way over here. Best to be informed.

This is a term I came across in passing, but I hadn’t seen a genetic component. I was wondering if it’s possible that it could be induced (with or without genetic component, I guess) by an abundance of immune-boosting measures.

[alewife]

I have been following this topic on CC as well.  Someone posted today an issue I hadn't thought of:  Most prescription medications are manufactured in China.  If I had any prescriptions, I would be getting all of the available refills filled now.

https://www.uscc.gov/sites/default/files/RosemaryGibsonTestimonyUSCCJuly152019.pdf

[Pen]

6 hours ago, Laura Corin said:

Be a bit careful about these figures.  In the UK for example, medicine is a five year undergraduate degree. That doesn't necessarily mean it's a lesser degree, just taken earlier. 

https://www.gmc-uk.org/education/becoming-a-doctor-in-the-uk

 

The method of getting a medical degree as an undergrad is standard in many places.  

However, the relatively few medical doctors per capita population seems to be a significant problem mentioned in the Times article and elsewhere too. 

[SKL]

10 hours ago, mommyoffive said:

 

I hope they stay safe.   

I wonder what other people's plans are to travel in country and to Asia.  Would you travel to Asia right now?   Are you going to suspend any domestic travel?

We were intending to visit South Korea, Japan, and maybe other nearby stops this summer.  Right now that is no longer being discussed.  Depending on how things go, we may or may not travel this summer.

My sister says she is taking her kids on a cruise at the end of February.  I'm not saying anything, but I'm pretty sure I would not book a cruise right now.  She probably booked it a long time ago though.

And my kids' Washington DC trip is coming up in early April.  They will travel there by bus, but will come in contact with many people.  Hopefully things will be under reasonable control at that time.

Edited February 14, 2020 by SKL

[Pen]

From Times article I linked above:

“The country does not have a functioning primary care system, the first line of defense for illness and injury. China has one general practitioner for every 6,666 people, compared with the international standard of one for every 1,500 to 2,000 people, according to the World Health Organization.”

”

“In 2000, Dr. Zhu designed a course to train general practitioners in Shanghai’s Zhongshan Hospital, at the request of its director. Her first course was free. No one showed up.

Nearly two decades later, Dr. Zhu, 71, says that training is still insufficient and doctors do not spend enough time studying the latest research and techniques in their field.”

 

 

There are additional specialists, but skill and training to deal with problems seems questionable.  

The article is a bit older but seems to me very worth reading and considering when thinking about novel viruses coming from China.

 

 

[Arcadia]

16 minutes ago, Pen said:

However, the relatively few medical doctors per capita population seems to be a significant problem mentioned in the Times article and elsewhere too. 

Pay is pathetic and workload is high in public hospitals 

From a survey of China‘s doctors http://www.cmda.net/u/cms/www/201807/06181247ffex.pdf 107,813.18 yuan (top pay) approximately USD15,435.84 (1 Chinese Yuan approximately  0.14 United States Dollar)

“男、女医师在年收入上存在显著差异，男性年平均工资是 78702.83 元，女 性年平均工资是 73294.47元，但是男、女对工资的满意感没有显著差异，造 成这一结果的可能原因是男女在社会角色和家庭角色不同，男性需要较高的 收入承担家庭责任，对收入的要求高于女性。

四组不同职称的被调查者之间在年收入上的差异都达到统计显著水平。初级职称组的平均 年收入是 57709.35 元，中级职称为 73854.37 元，副高级职称 88638.24元，正高级职 称 107813.18 元。职称越高收入越高这一结果与高职称人群工作年限长等因素相关，是 正常现象，同时进一步印证了我国较高职称的医师收入与初级职称并没有跳跃性的增长， 这与高年资医师的经验水平和社会贡献不相符合。”

google translate (not that great but the pay info is translated correctly)

“There is a significant difference in the annual income of male and female physicians. The average annual salary of males is 78702.83 yuan, and the average annual salary of females is 73294.47 yuan. However, there is no significant difference in male and female satisfaction with wages. The possible cause of this result is that men and women In terms of social and family roles, men need higher incomes to assume family responsibilities, and have higher income requirements than women.

The differences in annual income among the four groups of respondents with different job titles reached statistically significant levels. The average annual income of the junior title group is 57709.35 yuan, the intermediate title is 73854.37 yuan, the deputy senior title is 88638.24 yuan, and the positive senior title is 107813.18 yuan. The higher the professional title, the higher the income. This result is related to factors such as the number of working years of the senior professional population. It is a normal phenomenon. At the same time, it further confirms that the income of physicians with higher professional titles and junior professional titles has not jumped. The level of experience of the physician is not consistent with the social contribution.”

This article explains well, no idea about sixthtone’s credibility as a whole but the article tallies with real life “gossip”. https://www.sixthtone.com/news/1003446/why-chinas-young-doctors-want-out-of-the-system

[Laura Corin]

31 minutes ago, Pen said:

 

The method of getting a medical degree as an undergrad is standard in many places.  

However, the relatively few medical doctors per capita population seems to be a significant problem mentioned in the Times article and elsewhere too. 

Oh absolutely, but the PP was reacting to the undergraduate-trained doctors and it's important to know that there is more than one route to doctor training; the low number of doctors is definitely a problem.

[vonfirmath]

19 minutes ago, SKL said:

We were intending to visit South Korea, Japan, and maybe other nearby stops this summer.  Right now that is no longer being discussed.  Depending on how things go, we may or may not travel this summer.

My sister says she is taking her kids on a cruise at the end of February.  I'm not saying anything, but I'm pretty sure I would not book a cruise right now.  She probably booked it a long time ago though.

And my kids' Washington DC trip is coming up in early April.  They will travel there by bus, but will come in contact with many people.  Hopefully things will be under reasonable control at that time.

 

We are planning to go to Washington D.C. in the summer. But no tickets or anything purchased yet. Watching and waiting.

[Pen]

@mommyoffive I don’t travel anyway in general due to chronic health issues.  But if I were still doing so, I would tend not to do so now.  

I think companies dropping out of Barcelona tech conference is sensible.  It isn’t that Barcelona is itself a problem now, but it seems clear from the Singapore experience that any hub gathering point for international business can become a hub gathering point for viral transmission also.  

[Arcadia]

3 minutes ago, Pen said:

I think companies dropping out of Barcelona tech conference is sensible.  It isn’t that Barcelona is itself a problem now, but it seems clear from the Singapore experience that any hub gathering point for international business can become a hub gathering point for viral transmission also.  

My husband’s employer suspended all business trips, including domestic, when the outbreak was announced in January, way before pulling out of the conference. Air travel is a major worry due to the SARS experience. Hotels are probably a secondary worry even if employees can drive a few hours for a business meeting. 

From CNBC https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/12/mwc-mobile-world-congress-canceled-amid-coronavirus-fears.html

“KEY POINTS

• Mobile World Congress (MWC), the world’s largest trade show for the mobile phone industry, has been canceled amid fears over the coronavirus outbreak.
• Several top tech companies like Facebook, LG, Sony and more pulled out of the conference in recent weeks.
• GSMA, which organizes MWC, said health concerns made it “impossible” to put on the show.”

[Carrie12345]

I’m not going to try to figure out how to link specific updates from the CNN site but, basically, the health secretary differentiates between what “we” hope for, and what they’re planning for.  I’m also seeing lots more chatter about what US military bases are being authorized/ordered to prepare for.  My stance is that, if the government is actively planning for a big deal, individuals should be doing everything in their power to prepare for a Big Deal right now.  (And, if things go just fine, consider it a successful drill!)

Government  emergency planning is pretty much shaped like a pyramid. The base is a prepared citizenship.  The fewer citizens that can take care of their own needs, the harder it is to help anyone. Just saying!

[BeachGal]

3 hours ago, Carrie12345 said:

This is a term I came across in passing, but I hadn’t seen a genetic component. I was wondering if it’s possible that it could be induced (with or without genetic component, I guess) by an abundance of immune-boosting measures.

 

I don’t know but that would seem plausible.

According to Dr. Cron, who is both an MD and researcher, it’s caused by mutations in the proteins that are involved with the perforin pathway. He estimates some 10-15% of the population have these mutations. So far, I’ve read LYST and PRF1 genes but haven’t yet found which snps. I’m going to keep looking. 

The real problem is that a cytokine storm will just look like a worse version of the initial infection when actually, the cytokine storm is a separate problem that needs its own treatment. Once that’s done, the original infection stands a better chance of healing up..

The CytoSorb device that can filter out cytokines is a game changer, though.

[mommyoffive]

9 minutes ago, Carrie12345 said:

I’m not going to try to figure out how to link specific updates from the CNN site but, basically, the health secretary differentiates between what “we” hope for, and what they’re planning for.  I’m also seeing lots more chatter about what US military bases are being authorized/ordered to prepare for.  My stance is that, if the government is actively planning for a big deal, individuals should be doing everything in their power to prepare for a Big Deal right now.  (And, if things go just fine, consider it a successful drill!)

Government  emergency planning is pretty much shaped like a pyramid. The base is a prepared citizenship.  The fewer citizens that can take care of their own needs, the harder it is to help anyone. Just saying!

 

Other than stocking food, what should people be doing?

I am surprised that places have cancelled business meetings domestically and that people are rethinking domestic travel.   I guess why it all surprises me is that reports you read say this isn't something to worry about.  It is a cold.  Some of the people that have the virus are not even really sick. They feel fine.  So don't worry.    But then you see the doctors in full suits treating people.  I just don't get what you are really supposed to be doing and feeling.  

[PeterPan]

Have you seen this guy vlogging from the Diamond Princess? He's appealing to Richard Branson to try to get the brits off there. 

 

 

[Arcadia]

2 minutes ago, mommyoffive said:

 

I am surprised that places have cancelled business meetings domestically and that people are rethinking domestic travel.   I guess why it all surprises me is that reports you read say this isn't something to worry about.  

My husband’s employer told all employees who traveled to China to work from home on self quarantine when news first broke out. The MNCs have learned lessons from dealing with SARS (2002-2004) and H1N1 (2009-2010). Employers don’t want to be in the news if their employees get affected when business meetings can be conducted by videoconferencing. 

[BeachGal]

7 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Do we know much about the plasma treatment?  It sounds promising but how hard is it to produce something like this on a large enough scale?

 

What they’re doing is harvesting certain antibodies from plasma that’s been removed from people who’ve recovered. Those particular antibodies are then injected into patients who are very ill. It’s supposedly having a good effect but it’s not known how long a treatment will last. Probably a few days or so. That might be long enough for some, though.

I don’t know anything about how long it would take to mass produce the antibodies. In the US a company called Regeneron is doing this. It’s also being done in Russia but I don’t know the company’s name.

https://www.statnews.com/2020/02/05/in-the-race-to-develop-a-coronavirus-treatment-regeneron-thinks-it-has-the-inside-track/

Edited February 14, 2020 by BeachGal

[Carrie12345]

1 minute ago, mommyoffive said:

 

Other than stocking food, what should people be doing?

I am surprised that places have cancelled business meetings domestically and that people are rethinking domestic travel.   I guess why it all surprises me is that reports you read say this isn't something to worry about.  It is a cold.  Some of the people that have the virus are not even really sick. They feel fine.  So don't worry.    But then you see the doctors in full suits treating people.  I just don't get what you are really supposed to be doing and feeling.  

Honestly, I think it’s going to be different for every family/person.  What I just wrote is going to sound insane to people who think this is just a cold. I could say “keep extra tissues at home” and they’d roll their eyes. 

My personal comfort level is to have everything I need for a very long time so that I can choose to stay home for a very long time. In the meantime, I’m already limiting where we go and how often. Seasonal flu is running rampantby me, And I really don’t want anyone getting relatively mildly sick when it’s feasible that another thing could come around that hits 15-20% of people like a ton of bricks.        

I’ve had an emergency preparedness mindset for years, and I’m still far from perfectly prepared for the craziest of possibilities. There’s no real way I could condense anything into a concise list.

[Pen]

28 minutes ago, mommyoffive said:

 

Other than stocking food, what should people be doing?

I am surprised that places have cancelled business meetings domestically and that people are rethinking domestic travel.   I guess why it all surprises me is that reports you read say this isn't something to worry about.  It is a cold.  Some of the people that have the virus are not even really sick. They feel fine.  So don't worry.    But then you see the doctors in full suits treating people.  I just don't get what you are really supposed to be doing and feeling.  

 

https://www.vitamindservice.de/coronavirus-e

(watch the slide show with English translation —not very easy to understand English but better than German unless you are fluent in German). 

I know it’s controversial, especially on Wtm where lots of people consider vitamins to be woo, but I am certainly trying to raise my vitamin D levels and urging family to do the same!  I take vitamin K2 along with D3. 

 

Edited February 14, 2020 by Pen

[BeachGal]

Washable, reusable masks good for about 100 washes that might be available in the near future:

Quote

Sonovia’s ultrasonic fabric-finishing technology, invented by two Bar-Ilan University chemistry professors, mechanically infuses antiviral, antimicrobial zinc and copper oxide nanoparticles into textiles for facemasks and other protective products.

 

They haven’t been tested for COVID19 but they do protect against some strains of flu viruses.

Sonovia has enough material to make 5,000 to 10,000 face masks but need financial backing.

https://www.israel21c.org/new-antiviral-masks-from-israel-may-help-stop-deadly-virus/

Edited February 14, 2020 by BeachGal

[Slache]

In my experience (traveling first responder to hurricanes and earthquakes, so not quite the same) the problem with disasters is the people as much as the disaster. We wouldn't run out of food/water/medicine if everyone didn't freak out so be prepared for stupidity and bad choices. You don't want to be on the road when everyone is panicking so get your food, water, medicine and emergency supplies now. Prepare to barbeque and have no heat. Buy lots of food and water incrementally so as not to feed into a shortage. Buy baby wipes.

Most importantly, be prepared to defend you and yours. People will kill you for your food and take your teen daughter for fun while they're there. I can't tell you how many families I worked with that survived Katrina but lost family members the following month. People are evil, make no mistake.

[Pen]

I’ve also started practicing paying attention to what I do with my hands especially when out in public places, but other times too.  Not rubbing eyes, for example.  

[Carrie12345]

Adding another thought- figure out what you trust more; the things random people say, or the expensive and complicated actions of people actually living it and/or in charge of handling it.  Like I said I don’t know when, no high-ups risk financial/social damage for the fun of it.

[Acadie]

39 minutes ago, mommyoffive said:

 

Other than stocking food, what should people be doing?

 

As a nurse, I am not picturing an end-times scenario with this, and it's quite possible that with all the quarantine and travel measures in place that the epidemic will begin to taper off in the next few weeks. But it's also possible that before the spring/summer drop in virus transmission, we may see community transmission in the US, and by choice or necessity we may be spending more time at home or outdoors, rather than indoors with large groups of people. I do think things will shift for the better in the spring, even if covid-19 recurs seasonally like influenza.

So I'm making sure we have backup prescription & OTC meds, TP, Kleenex, bleach, disinfectant wipes, dog food, that sort of thing. If your family has any specific needs--meds, particular baby formula, food allergies--it's not a bad idea to stock up on the essentials it would be hard to do without, to tide you over for a month or two. For me that doesn't mean stocking tons of groceries, just certain products. 

 

[Renai]

14 hours ago, mommyoffive said:

 

I hope they stay safe.   

I wonder what other people's plans are to travel in country and to Asia.  Would you travel to Asia right now?   Are you going to suspend any domestic travel?

I keep checking a couple of groups of people that live/work in China as teachers. Some left for the holidays, some are trying to get back now, some wondering if they should still try to leave or stick it out in China, others are wondering if they should return at all, people saying it will take creativity to get back, some are saying to stay put if they are already in China, others saying stay put if they're not in China. There is a wide range of thought out there right now.

 

2 hours ago, mommyoffive said:

 

Other than stocking food, what should people be doing?

I am surprised that places have cancelled business meetings domestically and that people are rethinking domestic travel.   I guess why it all surprises me is that reports you read say this isn't something to worry about.  It is a cold.  Some of the people that have the virus are not even really sick. They feel fine.  So don't worry.    But then you see the doctors in full suits treating people.  I just don't get what you are really supposed to be doing and feeling.  

I've wondered about this too. Homeschool conferences are coming up, and I'm curious how badly (or not) they will be affected. I'm scheduled to speak at two of them - one in March, the other in April - and is it business as usual? I'm in a group for the April conference and no one is talking about this. I wonder what the general thought is...

[Arcadia]

From CNN https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/13/health/coronavirus-cdc-robert-redfield-gupta-intv/index.html

“(CNN) — As an outbreak of a novel coronavirus has swept through Hubei province, China, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has been preparing for its worst case scenario -- a widespread outbreak of illnesses in the United States.

"Right now we're in an aggressive containment mode," CDC Director Dr. Robert Redfield told CNN's Chief Medical Correspondent Dr. Sanjay Gupta in an interview on Thursday.

"We don't know a lot about this virus," he said. "This virus is probably with us beyond this season, beyond this year, and I think eventually the virus will find a foothold and we will get community-based transmission."

As of Thursday, there have been 15 cases of the novel coronavirus confirmed in seven states: eight in California; two in Illinois; and one in Arizona, Washington, Massachusetts, Wisconsin and Texas.

This 'will become a community virus'

While more research is needed to fully understand the virus, Redfield told Gupta that the CDC has focused on surveillance to track cases and containment strategies to slow possible progression of the virus in the United States. Slowing progression gives more time for researchers to work on developing and testing a vaccine and antiviral drugs for this novel coronavirus. Currently, there is no known cure for the virus.

"The containment phase is really to give us more time. This virus will become a community virus at some point in time, this year or next year," Redfield said. "We don't have any evidence that this coronavirus is really embedded in the community at this time, but with that said, we want to intensify our surveillance so that we're basing those conclusions based on data."”

[Pen]

2 hours ago, Acadie said:

 

As a nurse, I am not picturing an end-times scenario with this, and it's quite possible that with all the quarantine and travel measures in place that the epidemic will begin to taper off in the next few weeks. But it's also possible that before the spring/summer drop in virus transmission, we may see community transmission in the US, and by choice or necessity we may be spending more time at home or outdoors, rather than indoors with large groups of people. I do think things will shift for the better in the spring, even if covid-19 recurs seasonally like influenza.

So I'm making sure we have backup prescription & OTC meds, TP, Kleenex, bleach, disinfectant wipes, dog food, that sort of thing. If your family has any specific needs--meds, particular baby formula, food allergies--it's not a bad idea to stock up on the essentials it would be hard to do without, to tide you over for a month or two. For me that doesn't mean stocking tons of groceries, just certain products. 

 

 

I don’t think we would see an “end times scenario” unless the virus mutates to become much more lethal. 

However, the situation in Singapore where such a high percentage of cases are serious-critical condition does concern me a lot. As does the Walsh situation where an asymptomatic person lead to 10? other cases.  

 If the virus became widespread and if we saw a similar percentage of serious-critical cases as in Singapore in large populations (not ~ 1/3 of ~ 53 cases, but ~ 1/3 of thousands or tens of thousands of cases),  I think it would overwhelm medical systems of most countries.  

For that reason alone, slowing it down, is likely to help with keeping it manageable.  

[Pen]

50 minutes ago, Renai said:

I keep checking a couple of groups of people that live/work in China as teachers. Some left for the holidays, some are trying to get back now, some wondering if they should still try to leave or stick it out in China, others are wondering if they should return at all, people saying it will take creativity to get back, some are saying to stay put if they are already in China, others saying stay put if they're not in China. There is a wide range of thought out there right now.

 

I've wondered about this too. Homeschool conferences are coming up, and I'm curious how badly (or not) they will be affected. I'm scheduled to speak at two of them - one in March, the other in April - and is it business as usual? I'm in a group for the April conference and no one is talking about this. I wonder what the general thought is...

 

My guess would be a wait and see? Is it increasing or tapering in next couple of weeks. 

Or maybe people are afraid to discuss it and it would help if you opened the topic?

I have never been to a homeschool conference, but I imagine that some materials vendors have to travel quite a ways by plane to get to them, but that mostly homeschool conferences  are relatively local.  If that’s the case it probably doesn’t need to be decided in February.   

If expenses are being paid out now for something that might not happen, maybe canceling or rescheduling to summer would be better.   Can such a conference be done virtual as a tele summit?  

[Carrie12345]

1 hour ago, Renai said:

4 hours ago, mommyoffive said:

 

I've wondered about this too. Homeschool conferences are coming up, and I'm curious how badly (or not) they will be affected. I'm scheduled to speak at two of them - one in March, the other in April - and is it business as usual? I'm in a group for the April conference and no one is talking about this. I wonder what the general thought i

I don’t think most things are being thought about this far out.  Eventually, they might need to be.

Right now, we’re still signed up for some spring events.  I haven’t been taking on more except for those that have to be paid for now, and only ones I’m willing to lose money on if it actually comes down to that.  And I do have insurance on my priciest tickets. I’m paying attention these next few weeks, and I’ll see where that information takes us!

[Carrie12345]

From CNN:

”Los Angeles
San Francisco
Seattle
Chicago 
New York City

Messonnier said this efficiently leverages the existing influenza surveillance systems to track whether the novel coronavirus is spreading in communities within the United States.

The labs will test for the coronavirus in samples that are negative for influenza. ”

This makes me happy. Except, a bit later, they said the CDC still isn’t ready to ship tests to replace the faulty ones, lol.

[Ausmumof3]

4 hours ago, BeachGal said:

 

What they’re doing is harvesting certain antibodies from plasma that’s been removed from people who’ve recovered. Those particular antibodies are then injected into patients who are very ill. It’s supposedly having a good effect but it’s not known how long a treatment will last. Probably a few days or so. That might be long enough for some, though.

I don’t know anything about how long it would take to mass produce the antibodies. In the US a company called Regeneron is doing this. It’s also being done in Russia but I don’t know the company’s name.

https://www.statnews.com/2020/02/05/in-the-race-to-develop-a-coronavirus-treatment-regeneron-thinks-it-has-the-inside-track/

Sounds like at least one thing I read indicated they can only recover the antibodies from donated plasma from recovered patients.  So this has pretty serious limitations on how much can be produced and is tied to those people’s willingness to donate blood.