Who had Chinese Spy Balloon on their bingo card?!?

[saraha]

I’m only hearing about this this evening. 
What the what?!?

@Terabithis it headed your way?!?

[Terabith]

1 minute ago, saraha said:

I’m only hearing about this this evening. 
What the what?!?

@Terabithis it headed your way?!?

It's actually over near where my friend in Carbondale is.  Can be seen from Paducah right now.  Kinda doubt currents will bring it my way, but maybe.  

[Farrar]

Apparently there's another one over South America now.

I understand why they didn't shoot it down up to this point, but I wonder if they'll shoot it down the minute it's over the ocean. Like, it's supposed to drift over South Carolina and then the Atlantic tomorrow. Can they shoot it then?

[Terabith]

1 minute ago, Farrar said:

Apparently there's another one over South America now.

I understand why they didn't shoot it down up to this point, but I wonder if they'll shoot it down the minute it's over the ocean. Like, it's supposed to drift over South Carolina and then the Atlantic tomorrow. Can they shoot it then?

My friend who has often proved prescient in political matters thinks that is what will happen.  

[Farrar]

2 minutes ago, Terabith said:

My friend who has often proved prescient in political matters thinks that is what will happen.  

That was really my first thought. It would just be symbolic at that point. Or mostly. I wasn't sure if it would still be unsafe though. I'm sure it's a fast window before it's in international waters, at which point I guess it would be more of an incident.

[Terabith]

3 minutes ago, Farrar said:

That was really my first thought. It would just be symbolic at that point. Or mostly. I wasn't sure if it would still be unsafe though. I'm sure it's a fast window before it's in international waters, at which point I guess it would be more of an incident.

I mean, I guess I see the safety argument, but Montana is pretty darn empty.  I would think they could have shot it down pretty safely there.  But maybe it's still too risky?  I don't know.  

It does feel kinda reminiscent of the U-2 incident.  Not that I was alive for that one, but ya know.  From books and movies.  Except they didn't have spy satellites that could read license plates from space then.  I kinda find myself wondering what the point of the balloon is.  

[Farrar]

I was living in China when the US spy plane incident happened on Hainan. That was crazy. All the Americans I knew freaked out. I was so young and blase about it. I was like, meh, I'm sure I'd be able to get to Hong Kong and leave if things went weird with this, no big. And of course nothing really came of it. I'll bet most of y'all don't even know what I'm talking about.

[Faith-manor]

I did not. I did however have, "China, concerned about Putin's crazy going out of control, gifts him a large container of radioisotope sweet and sour chicken with fried rice". Any chance the balloon is a delivery drone wildly off course? 😁

[Farrar]

Adding that in and of itself, this balloon thing seems like not that big a deal. It's more that it's in the context of a ton of scary stuff. I'm actually pretty concerned about everything with China, to be honest.

[BusyMom5]

If we can refuel planes in air, there has to be a way that military aircraft can hook onto this thing and bring it down safely.  Its a balloon,  and for an aircraft, 3 school busses big is not very big.  

 

[Terabith]

1 minute ago, Farrar said:

Adding that in and of itself, this balloon thing seems like not that big a deal. It's more that it's in the context of a ton of scary stuff. I'm actually pretty concerned about everything with China, to be honest.

Yeah, I 100% agree with that.  

[Faith-manor]

Well I think it is going to be really bad PR for the DoD if this thing ends with, "Today, Florida Man....."

They really need to have a better plan than that.

[saraha]

7 minutes ago, BusyMom5 said:

If we can refuel planes in air, there has to be a way that military aircraft can hook onto this thing and bring it down safely.  Its a balloon,  and for an aircraft, 3 school busses big is not very big.  

 

This exactly. And I am not a conspiracy theorist and have poo poo-Ed some things even my dh raised an eyebrow about, but this seems really surreal.

Ballon with huge array underneath blows into Canada. Canada’s like hey pilots, be on the lookout for this. https://globalnews.ca/news/9457135/chinese-spy-balloon-us-airpsace/amp/
 

we’ll just let that float on by. Then the US is like oh look. Let’s just ignore it and it will go away. Oh, now people can see it, don’t worry, it’s not aliens, it’s a Chinese spy balloon. Like the Chinese need balloons to spy on us.

it sounds like the beginning of a bad prepper novel. It’s probably the leftover stress and adrenaline from this day, but my brain cannot wrap itself around this being a real thing.

[saraha]

And I haven’t had a chance to chase down the Latin American balloon, but our news is not telling where it is?

[Farrar]

Presumably taking it down would cost a bunch of money. It's way way up there. Shooting it down would be dangerous. If they genuinely believe that it doesn't really give the Chinese anything substantive, then the let's just watch it method would seem to make sense. For those who are thinking, but then why would the Chinese send it... you do have to remember that they may think that there's more to see than there is.

[BusyMom5]

17 minutes ago, Farrar said:

Presumably taking it down would cost a bunch of money. It's way way up there. Shooting it down would be dangerous. If they genuinely believe that it doesn't really give the Chinese anything substantive, then the let's just watch it method would seem to make sense. For those who are thinking, but then why would the Chinese send it... you do have to remember that they may think that there's more to see than there is.

My theory is that it's a test to see how Americans react.  They are monitoring TikTok and other social media to get a feel for how average Americans feel about China accidentally sending the balloon, how different political figures reactions are shared and commented on.  We are the science experiment!  Its not meteorology, its sociology!  

 

[Farrar]

This seemed like a reasonably measured commentary on the affair. It's semi-pro-Biden, but also chastises him at the end. The gist is that China looked like they were winning everything, but now they're mired in Covid, the administration seems to have successfully blocked them from getting certain semi-conductor technology, we just secured those new military bases in the Philippines, and the Belt and Road isn't proving to be as successful as they hoped. Now into this, toss the spy balloon. His take is that it's more of a lost face blunder for the Chinese than a sophisticated win at spying.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/02/03/biden-china-balloon-foreign-policy/

Some quotes: 

Quote

Two years ago, when Biden assumed office, China believed that it was overtaking the United States technologically, intimidating it militarily, and winning the race for global respect and popularity against an exhausted, divided America. Today, in a remarkable turnaround, China is the country that veers between covid-19 lockdowns and casual sacrifice of elders, between clobbering its real estate sector and coddling it, between persecuting its entrepreneurial champions and promising to make nice.

On the foreign policy side, meanwhile, the Biden team has inflicted a series of humiliations on its chief rival.

Quote

Initially, this [the Belt and Road Initiative] looked like a genius Chinese move to win friends and influence people. Now that economic conditions have soured, free-flowing Chinese loans have created the conditions for debt crises in several emerging nations. To make matters worse, China refuses to learn from the Western experience with poor-world debt, which teaches that it’s best to soften payment terms quickly. That way, borrowers have a chance to return to growth and repay some of the money. Plus, they won’t hate you as much.

 

[Ting Tang]

It just feeds into my cynicism about life. Things have just gotten too weird for me. 

[katilac]

Chinese spy balloon is always on the bingo card. 

2 hours ago, Terabith said:

I mean, I guess I see the safety argument, but Montana is pretty darn empty.  I would think they could have shot it down pretty safely there.  But maybe it's still too risky?   

I mean, the population of Montana probably thinks so 😅

2 hours ago, saraha said:

Like the Chinese need balloons to spy on us.

It does seem terribly inefficient, and also a rather embarrassing and uncool way to spy. 

I'd be more worried about the 65,000+ VIP Kid teachers in America, who have software from a Chinese company installed on their computers, that records audio and video of the English lessons. I mean, they weren't very likely to learn anything exciting from me, but maybe they're playing a numbers game. 

 

[Pawz4me]

I think the odds are good that either (1) the military has done some techie voodoo and jammed up whatever receiving/transmitting/storing of info the balloon is doing, or (2) they don't think it's gathering any info that wasn't already known and so is just (mostly) for show, and therefore they don't see a need to engage in theatrics like bringing it down. Maybe what China wants is for us to bring it down, to escalate. I mean--does anybody doubt that they could rather easily bring it down if they wanted to? Maybe I'm wrong, but I don't.

[Carrie12345]

8 hours ago, saraha said:

This exactly. And I am not a conspiracy theorist and have poo poo-Ed some things even my dh raised an eyebrow about, but this seems really surreal.

Ballon with huge array underneath blows into Canada. Canada’s like hey pilots, be on the lookout for this. https://globalnews.ca/news/9457135/chinese-spy-balloon-us-airpsace/amp/
 

we’ll just let that float on by. Then the US is like oh look. Let’s just ignore it and it will go away. Oh, now people can see it, don’t worry, it’s not aliens, it’s a Chinese spy balloon. Like the Chinese need balloons to spy on us.

it sounds like the beginning of a bad prepper novel. It’s probably the leftover stress and adrenaline from this day, but my brain cannot wrap itself around this being a real thing.

Here, Dh is typically the one telling me I’m overreacting. This time, he’s the one freaking out, which is freaking me out!

[pinball]

9 hours ago, saraha said:

I’m only hearing about this this evening. 
What the what?!?

@Terabithis it headed your way?!?

It’s no big deal. It just escaped from a wet market. Everything is fine.

[Ausmumof3]

9 hours ago, Farrar said:

Apparently there's another one over South America now.

I understand why they didn't shoot it down up to this point, but I wonder if they'll shoot it down the minute it's over the ocean. Like, it's supposed to drift over South Carolina and then the Atlantic tomorrow. Can they shoot it then?

Is the risk that it’s carrying something? like a biohazard or something? Yes I did read Dark Winter recently 😂

[Ausmumof3]

8 hours ago, saraha said:

This exactly. And I am not a conspiracy theorist and have poo poo-Ed some things even my dh raised an eyebrow about, but this seems really surreal.

Ballon with huge array underneath blows into Canada. Canada’s like hey pilots, be on the lookout for this. https://globalnews.ca/news/9457135/chinese-spy-balloon-us-airpsace/amp/
 

we’ll just let that float on by. Then the US is like oh look. Let’s just ignore it and it will go away. Oh, now people can see it, don’t worry, it’s not aliens, it’s a Chinese spy balloon. Like the Chinese need balloons to spy on us.

it sounds like the beginning of a bad prepper novel. It’s probably the leftover stress and adrenaline from this day, but my brain cannot wrap itself around this being a real thing.

We’re getting good at ignoring things!

[Ann.without.an.e]

8 hours ago, BusyMom5 said:

My theory is that it's a test to see how Americans react.  They are monitoring TikTok and other social media to get a feel for how average Americans feel about China accidentally sending the balloon, how different political figures reactions are shared and commented on.  We are the science experiment!  Its not meteorology, its sociology!  

 

We were talking about this at dinner last night and this is what my DH thinks. It feels like a test of some sort? Don't know why 

[Ann.without.an.e]

We were discussing something about like this AP News article was suggesting...

"The flight itself, he said, can be used to test America’s ability to detect incoming threats and to find holes in the country’s air defense warning system. It may also allow the Chinese to sense electromagnetic emissions that higher-altitude satellites cannot detect, such as low-power radio frequencies that could help them understand how different U.S. weapons systems communicate.

He said the Chinese may have sent the balloon “to show us that they can do it, and maybe next time it could have a weapon. So now we have to spend money and time on it” developing defenses."

 

https://apnews.com/article/politics-united-states-government-antony-blinken-china-b1b03193b7abeb7bbeca169bbc7c2c53

 

 

 

[stephanier.1765]

If this was a movie, they'd find some way to open a hatch on an airplane and pull that sucker in. I don't know the logistics on the difficulty of them actually getting their hands on it but I wish they would. You'd think they'd want to know what the balloon knows.

[Faith-manor]

4 minutes ago, stephanier.1765 said:

If this was a movie, they'd find some way to open a hatch on an airplane and pull that sucker in. I don't know the logistics on the difficulty of them actually getting their hands on it but I wish they would. You'd think they'd want to know what the balloon knows.

The tech is available to snatch it. We have that. My guess is they are trying to figure out if they want to capture it and piss off Beijing or let it go.

[Grace Hopper]

Apparently the apparatus hanging from it is enormous- like the size of a couple of school buses? The balloon itself is even bigger.  I don’t think it’ll fit into any aircraft. I suppose it could perhaps be leashed and dragged, if that were necessary. 

Edited February 4, 2023 by Grace Hopper

[pinball]

We used it for current events AND literature!

Good night room. Good night moon.

Good night Chinese Spy Balloon…

Hopefully it will go slowly enough that we can use it for Five in a Row.

[TravelingChris]

6 hours ago, katilac said:

Chinese spy balloon is always on the bingo card. 

I mean, the population of Montana probably thinks so 😅

It does seem terribly inefficient, and also a rather embarrassing and uncool way to spy. 

I'd be more worried about the 65,000+ VIP Kid teachers in America, who have software from a Chinese company installed on their computers, that records audio and video of the English lessons. I mean, they weren't very likely to learn anything exciting from me, but maybe they're playing a numbers game. 

 

Not the governor. I saw him yesterday answering that he was pro bringing it down, and that MT was a perfect place to do it. 

   I was reading a book last night on a totally different subject that was published in 2017.  Anyway, part of the research for this NF book was going back to the locations of the crimes thst occurred from 1898- 1912 or so.  While some places that used to be rural or small town back then are now parts of megalopolis- Houston Heights, town niw part of KC, etc; what really struck me was how many were still rural or same small town, and how some unexpected areas in midwest, for example, are now very unpopulated.

 

[pinball]

5 minutes ago, TravelingChris said:

Not the governor. I saw him yesterday answering that he was pro bringing it down, and that MT was a perfect place to do it. 

   I was reading a book last night on a totally different subject that was published in 2017.  Anyway, part of the research for this NF book was going back to the locations of the crimes thst occurred from 1898- 1912 or so.  While some places that used to be rural or small town back then are now parts of megalopolis- Houston Heights, town niw part of KC, etc; what really struck me was how many were still rural or same small town, and how some unexpected areas in midwest, for example, are now very unpopulated.

 

Man from the Train?

[TravelingChris]

As to Tiktok, no one un my family has that.  I didn't need anymore spying by China, in this case. Both dh and I were part of the tens of millions who had lots of id info stolen by ???  during the Obama presidency when twice the govt Civil service files were hacked into by ???.  

I think TikTok probably has less usage in my area of the country.

[TravelingChris]

2 minutes ago, pinball said:

Man from the Train?

Yes.  One of my Christmas or bday presents.

[happi duck]

If they didn't use the word balloon I think it would be more alarming.

I know it's not a "balloon" balloon but I haven't managed to add "giant and scary" to my brain's idea of balloon!

[BeachGal]

The balloon was very close to Malmstrom Air Force Base in Montana which stores nuclear missiles. 

https://www.businessinsider.com/chinese-spy-balloon-us-nuclear-base-minuteman-surveillance-montana-2023-2?op=1

A suspected Chinese spy balloon is operating near a sprawling base that houses 150 Minuteman III intercontinental ballistic missiles. 

. . .

Retired US Air Force Col. Cedric Leighton echoed the senator on CNN, saying that alongside spying on ballistic missile bases, the balloon could also be "looking at the strategic bomber bases that we have in the Dakotas."

https://www.malmstrom.af.mil/About-Us/Fact-Sheets/Display/Article/346869/341st-missile-wing/

The 341st Missile Wing currently operates, maintains and secures Minuteman III missiles, providing strategic deterrence for the nation as the wing has continuously done since 1962 - remaining America's "Ace in the Hole." 

 

Around Hamilton, Montana, in the western part of the state, is a Biosafety Level 4 lab where they study quite a few dangerous pathogens. It is one of the labs that analyzed the Covid virus so that other scientists could make the vaccines, meds, etc. The husband of a friend of mine is a scientist there. The lab is about 50 miles south of Missoula. I don’t know if the balloon flew over them, though.

https://www.niaid.nih.gov/about/rocky-mountain-overview

[cbollin]

56 minutes ago, pinball said:

We used it for current events AND literature!

 

 

and a review of 1980s music...   99 red balloons. 

[Heartstrings]

I’m not terribly worried about the balloon.   The Chinese, Russians, and everyone else have spy satellites in orbit spying all the time, as do we.  I doubt this balloon is going to get anything those satellites aren’t already getting. Its just a slow news week or we wouldn’t have heard about these ones at all.  
 

Reports say that our government knew it was coming for several days.  I feel fairly confident that there was a threat assessment and they decided it wasn’t worth dealing with or wasn’t worth the international headache for something so low cost.  I’m sure there’s been back channel talks.  They know that we know, we know that they know we know, blah blah.  
 

I even almost buy the Chinese excuse that they were just weather balloons that got blown off course because it just seems so dumb to send balloons, visible to the naked eye, trackable by radar.  
 

I do think the dumbest take I’ve heard is that the government should have just asked the people in Montana to stay inside for a few hours while we shot it down.  Apparently no one learned anything from Covid. If the government says to do something, a sizeable number of people will do the opposite out of spite.  There would have been a Freedom Rally right in the middle of the debris field.  I feel like the government has to take that proclivity into account.         
 

 

Edited February 4, 2023 by Heartstrings

[Ann.without.an.e]

3 minutes ago, Heartstrings said:

I

I do think the dumbest take I’ve heard is that the government should have just asked the people in Montana to stay inside for a few hours while we shot it down.  Apparently no one learned anything from Covid. If the government says to do something, a sizeable number of people will do the opposite out of spite.  There would have been a Freedom Rally right in the middle of the debris field.  I feel like the government has to take that proclivity into account.         
 

 

 

True, true but I have more faith in the people of Montana to stay inside than the people of Florida 😂

[BeachGal]

They are probably playing a game and know full well that we know it’s there but it’s not a nothing burger. Considering the future of Taiwan, the balloon flying around nuclear silos and bomber airfields is making a statement.

[Heartstrings]

1 minute ago, Ann.without.an.e said:

True, true but I have more faith in the people of Montana to stay inside than the people of Florida

Very true.  
 

 

 

Has anyone heard any reports of injuries from some dummy trying to shoot it down?  I’ve seen tweets urging people to try, never mind that it’s 12 miles up.  I’m concerned someone might try and injure innocent by standers.  Boy, that would give the Chinese an insight into our population.  🤣.  

[Heartstrings]

1 minute ago, BeachGal said:

They are probably playing a game and know full well that we know it’s there but it’s not a nothing burger. Considering the future of Taiwan, the balloon flying around nuclear silos and bomber airfields is making a statement.

I’ve seen a few takes that think we’re letting them get a look, as a show of force on our side.  “Yep, still got nukes.  Bombers too.  Lots of ‘em.  Take a good long look.”   
 

What’s that movie line…” Ask yourself, Do I feel lucky?  Well, do ya, punk?”.  
 

If the American public knows where and what these installations are, other countries already do too.   I can’t imagine anything is out in the open that we care if they see.  Satellites fly over these places daily, we just don’t think about that because it’s out of sight, out of mind.   

[chiguirre]

I don't think they intended the balloon to be visible to the naked eye. Apparently, it's pretty common to underinflate weather balloons and then they don't reach the right altitude, don't work correctly and end up losing their expensive equipment. This isn't a weather balloon but the same problem still applies. 

They've managed to rile up anti-China sentiment in the US while not providing a shining example of wolf warrior competence to Chinese citizens. "Oopsie, our balloon malfunctioned" isn't a great look for the People's Liberation Army. Violating various countries' airspace in LatAm where this hits a raw nerve is also not a great way to consolidate soft power.

[happi duck]

I've not been reading about this.  Are they making the point to not shoot at this thing and reminding that bullets falling down are as dangerous?  

[BeachGal]

11 minutes ago, Heartstrings said:

I’ve seen a few takes that think we’re letting them get a look, as a show of force on our side.  “Yep, still got nukes.  Bombers too.  Lots of ‘em.  Take a good long look.”   
 

What’s that movie line…” Ask yourself, Do I feel lucky?  Well, do ya, punk?”.  
 

If the American public knows where and what these installations are, other countries already do too.   I can’t imagine anything is out in the open that we care if they see.  Satellites fly over these places daily, we just don’t think about that because it’s out of sight, out of mind.   

It’s more a matter of the balloon making a statement along the lines of “we have the cajones to do this.” Yes, they have satellite surveillance, too, but this is likely less about surveilling and more about making a bold move and statement.

I’m not worried about it myself but I doubt very much it’s a weather balloon blown off track.

[Scarlett]

52 minutes ago, cbollin said:

 

and a review of 1980s music...   99 red balloons. 

That song has not left my brain since I opened this  thread.  

[PronghornD]

11 hours ago, Farrar said:

I was living in China when the US spy plane incident happened on Hainan. That was crazy. All the Americans I knew freaked out. I was so young and blase about it. I was like, meh, I'm sure I'd be able to get to Hong Kong and leave if things went weird with this, no big. And of course nothing really came of it. I'll bet most of y'all don't even know what I'm talking about.

I remember! We had our paperwork in to adopt a child from China at that point and were waiting for a referral. We were deeply afraid we'd never get to be parents. Of course, we were still waiting to be parents on 9-11 and were afraid that World War III would come between us and our child. We had a long and rocky wait -- but then a child who was worth every moment of pain we ever experienced in our whole lives!

[Heartstrings]

11 minutes ago, BeachGal said:

It’s more a matter of the balloon making a statement along the lines of “we have the cajones to do this.” Yes, they have satellite surveillance, too, but this is likely less about surveilling and more about making a bold move and statement

We’ll probably need to get used to this kind of thing.  We’ve entered a period of Cold War with China, and these sorts of events were par for the course during the Cold War with Russia.  Cool heads prevailing is what kept us out of a hot war then, and that’s what we’ll need to get through this one too.  
 

I’d like to think that’s playing into the decision not to shoot this balloon down now.  

Edited February 4, 2023 by Heartstrings

[Heartstrings]

16 minutes ago, happi duck said:

I've not been reading about this.  Are they making the point to not shoot at this thing and reminding that bullets falling down are as dangerous?  

Well, official channels are warning about that. Certain personalities on Twitter are encouraging people to try to shoot it down themselves.  

[BeachGal]

Just now, Heartstrings said:

We’ll probably need to get used to this kind of thing.  We’ve entered a period of Cold War with China, and these sorts of events were par for the course during the Cold War with Russia.  Cool heads prevailing is what kept us out of a hot war then, and that’s what we’ll need to get through this one too.  

Well, yeah. My husband, now retired, went to West Point and has a lot of knowledge about nukes, radar and whatnot. He has a lot to say about events like this, strategies that countries use, etc. There is a lot of concern about Taiwan, atm.