The Vaccine Thread

[kbutton]

6 hours ago, mommyoffive said:

Yep, saw that early this morning.  So exciting.  I have everything crossed that what has been leaking will come true that shots before Halloween!!!!   My biggest hope is even by the 15th of October. 

Before Halloween would be nice! We’re joking/not joking that we’d be happy to invite the health department to set up a kid vaccination site in our front yard for trick or treat. We’d happily supply the candy. 

[Not_a_Number]

3 hours ago, Spy Car said:

Here is a link to a rather unsettling article re-printed on the Scientific American website that describes preliminary findings (not yet published in medical journals or peer-reviewed) that are raising concerns about the effects of even mild cases of COVID-19 on the brain, including the potential for ongoing long-term consequences. 

Not a fun read. Sorry.

Bill

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/even-mild-cases-of-covid-may-leave-a-mark-on-the-brain/

 

I think I remember this study. It was definitely disquieting. 

[RootAnn]

1 hour ago, kbutton said:

Before Halloween would be nice! 

From the article posted earlier: 

"According to the Wall Street Journal, the FDA may not make its decision until sometime between Halloween and Thanksgiving, citing a person familiar with the matter."

and

"If the same timeline is followed for this application, younger children could start receiving their shots as soon as late October."

[mommyoffive]

6 hours ago, SKL said:

I don't disagree, but the social needs of kids under 12 are a lot different from those of kids over 11.  Though I personally would not restrict my younger kids as long as they masked in close quarters (barring high risk situations).

If the 12-15 age group is any indication, don't be surprised if many/most elementary-age kids still aren't vaxed even after it's allowed.  It's maybe about 50% at the high school level.

I am aware of how it effects kids over 12.  I have 2 of those too.  But it doesn't mean that it doesn't effect the kids under 12 too.  Saying that the needs are different feels dismissive to me as a parent of kids under 12 and what they have gone through.  We restricted our kids with things this whole time and have just in the last 2-3 months opened up a little bit.  We are still trying to be really careful as to avoid getting Covid before my younger 3 can get vaccinated.  It was hard on all my kids and I am not going to dismiss any of what they all went through because their social needs were different.  It effected each of them in different ways that we are still unpacking and dealing with.   

I of course want everyone to be vaccinated, but at this point all I care about is getting my kids vaccinated.  I can't control other people.  I just want one more layer of protection for my kids.  I would expect the rates of kid vaxed in my city to be 50%.  But I expect the rate of kids vaxxed in the city that we do all our activities to be 70-80%.   And I hope more schools make the vaccine mandatory over time.

[SKL]

2 hours ago, mommyoffive said:

I am aware of how it effects kids over 12.  I have 2 of those too.  But it doesn't mean that it doesn't effect the kids under 12 too.  Saying that the needs are different feels dismissive to me as a parent of kids under 12 and what they have gone through.  We restricted our kids with things this whole time and have just in the last 2-3 months opened up a little bit.  We are still trying to be really careful as to avoid getting Covid before my younger 3 can get vaccinated.  It was hard on all my kids and I am not going to dismiss any of what they all went through because their social needs were different.  It effected each of them in different ways that we are still unpacking and dealing with.   

I of course want everyone to be vaccinated, but at this point all I care about is getting my kids vaccinated.  I can't control other people.  I just want one more layer of protection for my kids.  I would expect the rates of kid vaxed in my city to be 50%.  But I expect the rate of kids vaxxed in the city that we do all our activities to be 70-80%.   And I hope more schools make the vaccine mandatory over time.

Well OK, but I don't think it's dismissive to expect the kiddy vax to be tested before it's approved, or to admit that elementary-age kids, even unvaxed, are at very low risk from Covid.*  And it's only been since late June that kids 12-15 could be fully vaxed.  So they had a couple of summer weeks before Delta put them back in masks and/or jacked up social activities again.

To my knowledge, most families with kids under 12 are doing all the available activities, wearing masks when asked.

*(In my state, the number of recorded breakthrough Covid deaths is 113 compared to 1 death to date of an elementary-aged unvaxed kid.)  The total hospitalizations of kids aged 5-13 to date has been 570, which is 0.04% of all elementary-aged children in our state.  And my state is not a Covid stat outlier.)

[mommyoffive]

7 hours ago, SKL said:

Well OK, but I don't think it's dismissive to expect the kiddy vax to be tested before it's approved, or to admit that elementary-age kids, even unvaxed, are at very low risk from Covid.*  And it's only been since late June that kids 12-15 could be fully vaxed.  So they had a couple of summer weeks before Delta put them back in masks and/or jacked up social activities again.

To my knowledge, most families with kids under 12 are doing all the available activities, wearing masks when asked.

*(In my state, the number of recorded breakthrough Covid deaths is 113 compared to 1 death to date of an elementary-aged unvaxed kid.)  The total hospitalizations of kids aged 5-13 to date has been 570, which is 0.04% of all elementary-aged children in our state.  And my state is not a Covid stat outlier.)

That is 100% not what I am talking about when I am saying people who say social needs of kids older than 12 are different than younger kids.  I get that the needs of teens are different.  I have two and have seen how they have been effected by this.  What is dismissive is when people say younger kids don't have the same needs and just disregard what the younger kids have or are going through.  And also what their families are going through too.  

Yes, I know it has only been since June that kids 12 and up have been fully vaxed.  And while that doesn't seem like a long time, that is a whole summer.  A whole summer where you can travel, go camp, do activities with a lower risk.  Even with Delta coming on the scene they are better protected. 

Hmm I don't think you can say most kids with kids under 12 are doing ALL the available activities.   We are not.  There are some other families on here that are not.  We know a lot of other families with kids under 12 in our life that are not. 

Death and hospitalizations are not my only concern with Covid.

 

My heart goes out to all families with kids who can't be vaxed.   We first dealt with watching a lot of our friends who all have kids over 16.  Then watching families with kids 12-15.   We are at the final gate for our family with the 5-11 coming soon.  But I feel for the families that have kids younger than 5 and still waiting and watching other families with older kids.  It is hard.  It sucks.  And it is extra scary and stressful.  Everyone is being affected by this pandemic in all different ways.

[Not_a_Number]

1 minute ago, mommyoffive said:

Hmm I don't think you can say most kids with kids under 12 are doing ALL the available activities.   We are not.  There are some other families on here that are not.  We know a lot of other families with kids under 12 in our life that are not. 

We're definitely not. And while my kids are OK, they are definitely affected. And this year, it's harder, because everything is coming back and there are fewer people you can see and stay safe.

And it's going to get cold outside. So seeing people outside may not wind up being an option long enough. 

[ktgrok]

2 minutes ago, mommyoffive said:

 

Death and hospitalizations are not my only concern with Covid.

 

My heart goes out to all families with kids who can't be vaxed.   We first dealt with watching a lot of our friends who all have kids over 16.  Then watching families with kids 12-15.   We are at the final gate for our family with the 5-11 coming soon.  But I feel for the families that have kids younger than 5 and still waiting and watching other families with older kids.  It is hard.  It sucks.  And it is extra scary and stressful.  Everyone is being affected by this pandemic in all different ways.

Yes to both of these. I'm especially concerned about type 1 diabetes and Covid in kids. I've seen several providers making this connection - one ICU nurse said at this point she assumes every kid coming in with ketoaccidosis and new onset type 1 is covid positive, and so far she's almost always right. Stuff like that is life changing, and potentially life limiting, but not being talked about much. 

And yes, we have one under 5. Thankfully, my one with the AI diseases is 9, so at least he will be vaccinated soon. But of course, the other kids have genetics that predispose them to stuff too, and illness is a known trigger. So yeah. 

[KSera]

9 hours ago, SKL said:

Well OK, but I don't think it's dismissive to expect the kiddy vax to be tested before it's approved, or to admit that elementary-age kids, even unvaxed, are at very low risk from Covid.*  And it's only been since late June that kids 12-15 could be fully vaxed.  So they had a couple of summer weeks before Delta put them back in masks and/or jacked up social activities again.

To my knowledge, most families with kids under 12 are doing all the available activities, wearing masks when asked.

The kid’s vaccine is being tested before being approved. That’s what we’re all waiting for and why it’s taking awhile. Did someone here say they don’t want it tested? 
 

It’s not the case where I am that most families with kids under 12 are doing all the things. Some are, but plenty are not, including us. Our younger kids are extremely limited in what they can do right now. If it’s not outside, it’s not on the table. I know lots of people doing the same. 

[Starr]

I also think the anxiety of younger children getting covid is higher with the people I know. A bad case  or a case of long term or side effect illness is just that much harder on a little body. And a potential life time of Type 1 diabetes should worry us all.

[Not_a_Number]

2 minutes ago, Starr said:

I also think the anxiety of younger children getting covid is higher with the people I know. A bad case  or a case of long term or side effect illness is just that much harder on a little body. And a potential life time of Type 1 diabetes should worry us all.

I do worry about the possible repercussions. With lots of diseases that involve the nerves and the brain, we actually do not see the outcomes for years and years. Polio is like that, for example. There are others. 

And since we already now about MIS-C, which is this weird illness that shows up WAY after the COVID infection, we already know that COVID has long-term sequelae. It seems foolhardy to assume there aren't any others. I mean, hopefully there aren't, but we simply don't know 😞 . 

[vonfirmath]

I thought this article was interesting re: previous conversations about trying to vaccinate 11 year olds.

https://www.medpagetoday.com/infectiousdisease/covid19vaccine/94760?xid=nl_mpt_investigative2021-09-29&eun=g1709400d0r&utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=InvestigativeMD_092921&utm_term=NL_Gen_Int_InvestigateMD_Active

[Syllieann]

1 hour ago, vonfirmath said:

I thought this article was interesting re: previous conversations about trying to vaccinate 11 year olds.

https://www.medpagetoday.com/infectiousdisease/covid19vaccine/94760?xid=nl_mpt_investigative2021-09-29&eun=g1709400d0r&utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=InvestigativeMD_092921&utm_term=NL_Gen_Int_InvestigateMD_Active

I saw that this morning and was so upset.  My 10 yo dd will be getting on a plane and staying in a hotel in early Nov.  I had decided that if we didn't get 5-11 yo approval in time I'd take her to a mass vax clinic and hope the person didn't look too closely at the form.  Now I think I'm going to plead with the pedi for an off label dose instead.

Edited September 29, 2021 by Syllieann

[wathe]

My province is moving to restrict Moderna to those 25 and older.  24 and under will get Pfizer only.   Citing increased myocarditis risk with Moderna in this age group (1/5000), compared to Pfizer (1/28 000).

[ieta_cassiopeia]

On 9/28/2021 at 1:28 AM, Ausmumof3 said:

So apparently I’m in the lucky 1%.  Also my sis and now my dd possibly as she seems to be getting the lymph glands as well.  I wonder if it’s genetic somehow.

Sorry to hear it, and genetic vulnerability is possible (pretty sure nobody has explored that angle in research yet in relation to COVID vaccines).

 

On 9/28/2021 at 5:27 PM, Syllieann said:

Wow, what do you suppose the deal is with the uninsured?  Do people not know it's free?

If people are used to medicine not being free, they tend not to look for information about health treatments because they assume they couldn't get it even if it turned out to be applicable to them. They're also more likely to be vaccine-hesitant as a result.

This is before taking into account correlations. Being uninsured tracks really well with poverty and quite well with living in rural areas (both potentially restricting information flow, which would result in more vaccine hesitancy if the first they heard of e.g. FDA approval was from this survey question). It tracks quite well with being Black or under 30 (both categories where there's relatively high mistrust of the government in general, thus not trusting its recommendations, and have the highest levels of "only if required" vaccination levels).

It also tracks somewhat well with being Republican (the category we know they have the highest amount of anti-vaxx opinion) or Independent (especially the "neither party has my best interests at heart" variety, which would of course lead to greater scepticism of anything the government or its agencies might say on the matter).

Edited to add: Being uninsured (especially above 26) tracks somewhat with people who have problems using the phone/non-face-to-face methods of healthcare. They may not be able to book themselves an appointment and may not wish to impose upon their family to arrange it. (57% of autistic people in the UK surveyed this week said they did not see their GP on at least one occasion they should have done because they couldn't use the phone well enough to either do a telemedicine appointment or book a face-to-face one. This is a category I can imagine having no healthcare insurance in the USA if living independently due to problems arranging it, or anticipated problems using it if needed).

Edited September 30, 2021 by ieta_cassiopeia

[ieta_cassiopeia]

Double post

Edited September 30, 2021 by ieta_cassiopeia

[Not_a_Number]

55 minutes ago, ieta_cassiopeia said:

If people are used to medicine not being free, they tend not to look for information about health treatments because they assume they couldn't get it even if it turned out to be applicable to them. They're also more likely to be vaccine-hesitant as a result.

That's definitely my assumption. 

[Dmmetler]

On 9/28/2021 at 5:21 PM, kbutton said:

Before Halloween would be nice! We’re joking/not joking that we’d be happy to invite the health department to set up a kid vaccination site in our front yard for trick or treat. We’d happily supply the candy. 

In all seriousness, it would be awesome if this could happen. Maybe in conjunction with big trick or treat neighborhoods (mine is one people tend to drive to, and we could set up a Vaccine station in the school parking lot where all the parents park so their kids can trick or treat-and I admit that I really work to be a "good house" for trick or treating) or downtowns doing the store to store trick or treating, or colleges doing trick or treat on campus. I'll bet we could get not only a lot of kids, but possibly a decent number of parents, too, for at least the first dose. 

 

 

[mommyoffive]

For an Unlucky Few, Breakthrough Infections Lead to Long COVID. Patient Advocates Are Fighting for Their Recognition (msn.com)

[KSera]

New preprint out today of a very large Oxford study about transmission in breakthrough cases. The findings are that despite viral load, people who contract Covid despite vaccination transmit at a significantly lower rate than those who are not vaccinated, even with Delta (with Pfizer having a larger reduction in transmission than AZ). That has seemed to be the hunch based on what people have been seeing, and this strongly backs it up. The effect is even stronger than it  appears, because this study addresses transmission in those infected, and the vaccinated are significantly less likely to become infected in the first place, multiplying that effect. Assuming this passes peer review, this is very good news!

Preprint: https://t.co/Cya66FbmGQ?amp=1

 

[Corraleno]

This graphic from the Oxford study linked by KSera sums up the data very well. Top row shows the probability of transmitting the virus from people who have been vaccinated with Pfizer (blue) and AZ (red); bottom row shows the reduction in probability of testing positive if exposed. Alpha is on the left, Delta on the right, and the shaded area = 95% confidence interval. You can see that the protection against transmitting the virus basically disappears for AZ around 12 weeks after the second shot, and it's greatly reduced for Pfizer. Protection against catching it if exposed also diminishes over time but remains higher than the protection against transmission.

[Corraleno]

Interesting Science article on a new Chinese vaccine that is similar to Novavax, except they grow their spike proteins in hamster ovary cells instead of moth larva ovary cells and they use a different adjuvant ("combining an aluminum salt with DNA nucleotides") vs Novavax's tree-bark-derived saponin adjuvant.

It seems to be significantly more effective than Sinopharm and Sinovac (which are old fashioned attenuated virus vaccines), especially against Delta. And since China has already vaccinated 70% of their population, they expect to be able to ship 400+ million doses of "Clover" to COVAX, which has struggled to get enough vaccine due to bottlenecks in supply. The shortage has been partly due to India's export ban, which has just been lifted, so hopefully the new availability of vaccines from China and India will help ease the global supply issues. So here is the main data on the Clover vaccine:

"Clover’s trial enrolled 30,000 people on four continents. Among participants who had not had COVID-19 before, the study recorded 52 cases in people receiving the vaccine versus 155 in the placebo group—an efficacy of 67.2%. Efficacy increased to 83.7% when looking only at moderate to severe disease, and to 100% against hospitalization and death. Overall efficacy against the Delta variant was 78.7%, even though the spike in the vaccine was based on a virus circulating early in the pandemic, not on Delta. On the low end, protection against a variant known as Mu was only 58.6%. In an unusual feature of the trial, 49% of participants had SARS-CoV-2 antibodies, a sign of prior infection, at its start. An analysis of that group showed the vaccine had 64.2% efficacy in preventing another bout of COVID-19."
 

https://www.science.org/content/article/new-chinese-vaccine-could-bolster-global-arsenal

Edited September 30, 2021 by Corraleno

[mommyoffive]

Americans who aren't eligible for a COVID-19 booster are getting the shot no questions asked in pharmacies and doctors' offices (msn.com)

 

 

[YaelAldrich]

DH and I got our booster shot today in MA. CVS didn't ask us for anything to prove we needed it. I brought my original letter to prove I work in a congregate care facility. DH brought his faculty ID card. 

[mommyoffive]

Covid-19 live updates: A third of parents want to vaccinate 5-to-11-year-olds ‘right away’ when eligible, report finds (msn.com)

[Lanny]

Article I read on 01 October 2021 - Carolina and Stanford are working on a 3D Printed Patch that will provide more immunity that the current COVID-19 jabs do. This is the URL:

https://www.unc.edu/posts/2021/09/23/3d-printed-vaccine-patch/

 

[mommyoffive]

Merck says its COVID-19 antiviral pill is effective against variants | TheHill

[mommyoffive]

Where are the antivirals? - by Katelyn Jetelina - Your Local Epidemiologist (substack.com)

Today, Merck announced that it’s submitting an FDA application for a new antiviral that can be used against COVID19: molnupiravir. If approved, high risk people would take four capsules twice a day for five days early in their infection. This pill series cuts the risk of hospitalization or death in half. Two other antiviral pills (by Pfizer and Atea Pharmaceuticals and Roche) are expected within the next few months.

[KSera]

1 hour ago, mommyoffive said:

This pill series cuts the risk of hospitalization or death in half

Does anyone know why they are going with the “half” result for deaths as well? It cut hospitalizations in half, but deaths went from 8 in the placebo to zero in the study group. I’m guessing the small numbers mean they don’t have the statistical significance to make a bolder claim, but how do they get to 50%?

[wathe]

2 hours ago, KSera said:

Does anyone know why they are going with the “half” result for deaths as well? It cut hospitalizations in half, but deaths went from 8 in the placebo to zero in the study group. I’m guessing the small numbers mean they don’t have the statistical significance to make a bolder claim, but how do they get to 50%?

I'm guessing that the a priori endpoint was hospitalization and deaths, meaning as a group, not as individual things.  Probably statistically underpowered to measure effect on deaths alone.

Edited October 1, 2021 by wathe

[wathe]

Here's the Merck press release.  The a priori endpoint was hospitalization or death, used in aggregate.  in the treatment group 50% fewer were hospitalized or died than in the placebo group.  Both hospitalizations and deaths count as a combined endpoint.

Edited October 1, 2021 by wathe

[Not_a_Number]

5 minutes ago, wathe said:

Here's the Merck press release.  The a priori endpoint was hospitalization or death, used in aggregate.  in the treatment group 50% fewer were hospitalized or died than in the placebo group.  Both hospitalizations and deaths count as a combined endpoint.

Cool. And it does look rather like the chance of death is cut by a much higher amount, although it's not conclusive. Very promising. 

[wathe]

I feel like I'm not expressing myself well.  It looks like "hospitalization or death" is a "composite event endpoint".  When the rate of occurence of a single event is expected to be low (death in this case), it is common to combine several events into a single composite event endpoint.  I'm paraphrasing from this FDA super-nerdy industry article all about endpoints in drug trials.

They'll be able to crunch the numbers post hoc for death alone, but might not have the power for that result to be statistically meaningful.  Post hoc subgroup analysis is statistically less valuable  anyway- all kinds of sneaky little stats errors assert themselves.  Nerdy article linked above goes into the details

 

 

[wathe]

The latest evidence-based practice guidelines on covid treatment from the Ontario Science Table.  

The main changes are:

1) that they are now recommending RegenCOV in select circumstances.  (Too bad we don't actually have any - supply in the province remains extremely limited) and

2) inhaled budesonide for select cases with mild disease.

[JennyD]

FDA will be holding advisory committee meeting on pediatric vaccine on October 26.

 

[mommyoffive]

2 minutes ago, JennyD said:

FDA will be holding advisory committee meeting on pediatric vaccine on October 26.

 

Yay, boo.   I was hoping sooner.  Hoping that doesn't take long at all. 

[mommyoffive]

California will require all students to get coronavirus vaccine when it gets full FDA approval (msn.com)

[Drama Llama]

. . . 

Edited October 26, 2021 by BaseballandHockey

[Corraleno]

1 hour ago, BaseballandHockey said:

Anyone have a sense of how immunity increases during the first couple weeks after the third dose?

My GFIL in law is 10 days past his 3rd dose of Pfizer.  We have a decision to make about something that we wouldn't have done before the 3rd dose, and probably would do a few days from now.

I know with the original shots antibodies seemed to peak about 2 weeks after the second shot, so I would think that likely holds for the third shots as well. So he would be right at the peak level of antibodies a few days from now.

[Not_a_Number]

On 10/1/2021 at 1:12 PM, wathe said:

I feel like I'm not expressing myself well.  It looks like "hospitalization or death" is a "composite event endpoint".  When the rate of occurence of a single event is expected to be low (death in this case), it is common to combine several events into a single composite event endpoint.  I'm paraphrasing from this FDA super-nerdy industry article all about endpoints in drug trials.

They'll be able to crunch the numbers post hoc for death alone, but might not have the power for that result to be statistically meaningful.  Post hoc subgroup analysis is statistically less valuable  anyway- all kinds of sneaky little stats errors assert themselves.  Nerdy article linked above goes into the detail.

I thought you were expressing yourself well, but then I already understand it 😉 . 

[mommyoffive]

Virus surge hits New England despite high vaccination rates (msn.com)

[ktgrok]

21 minutes ago, mommyoffive said:

Virus surge hits New England despite high vaccination rates (msn.com)

Until we can vaccinate people under 12, now where really has high enough vaccination rates, not can they, to truly get ahead of this. 

[mommyoffive]

Just now, ktgrok said:

Until we can vaccinate people under 12, now where really has high enough vaccination rates, not can they, to truly get ahead of this. 

Hopefully so soon!!  I hope it happens this month.  I think my stress level is going finally even out when that happens.  

[Not_a_Number]

24 minutes ago, mommyoffive said:

Virus surge hits New England despite high vaccination rates (msn.com)

Well, that's scary. 

I really hope my in-laws can get their boosters soon 😕 . 

[ktgrok]

Just now, mommyoffive said:

Hopefully so soon!!  I hope it happens this month.  I think my stress level is going finally even out when that happens.  

I think I read here somewhere that Pfizer will be submitting for approval on October 26th? Not sure how long it takes to GET the approval after that?

I had hoped kids would be vaccinated for Halloween, but will settle for Thanksgiving at this point. 

[mommyoffive]

1 minute ago, Not_a_Number said:

Well, that's scary. 

I really hope my in-laws can get their boosters soon 😕 . 

Do they not qualify now?  

[ktgrok]

1 minute ago, Not_a_Number said:

Well, that's scary. 

I really hope my in-laws can get their boosters soon 😕 . 

CVS is not really asking questions - just fill out the form online to schedule. My parents got a third dose of Moderna by checking immune compromised, but no one asked for proof. You just do it when scheduling online. I got my booster of Pfizer and it didn't ask for anything at all. Just said who should /could get it, but not in any detail even. (since anyone over a BMI of 25 qualifies, it really is most Americans anyway). 

[Not_a_Number]

1 minute ago, mommyoffive said:

Do they not qualify now?  

They do. But my FIL is having health issues and they aren't eager for him to have side effects right now 😕 . He's planning to get the booster next week, though. I hope that goes through. 

And my MIL can't get hers because she had Moderna. 

[Not_a_Number]

Just now, ktgrok said:

CVS is not really asking questions - just fill out the form online to schedule. My parents got a third dose of Moderna by checking immune compromised, but no one asked for proof. You just do it when scheduling online. I got my booster of Pfizer and it didn't ask for anything at all. Just said who should /could get it, but not in any detail even. (since anyone over a BMI of 25 qualifies, it really is most Americans anyway). 

That's what I did, too, frankly. But we can't seem to convince them to do it when they aren't sure they are supposed to. 

[Not_a_Number]

3 minutes ago, ktgrok said:

I think I read here somewhere that Pfizer will be submitting for approval on October 26th? Not sure how long it takes to GET the approval after that?

I had hoped kids would be vaccinated for Halloween, but will settle for Thanksgiving at this point. 

Could you link that? Because that's like a month after submitting the data... why so long?