wuhan - coronavirus

[Ausmumof3]

17 minutes ago, Melissa in Australia said:

I am finding it hard to stay optimistic 😞

Yep.  The frustrating thing is this was predictable. 
From what I can see, none of the decision makers are currently listening to health advice (aside from their own handful of experts who seem to say what they want).  So I don’t see how things will get better until they get bad enough that there’s no choice but to change direction.

[chocolate-chip chooky]

3 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Yep.  The frustrating thing is this was predictable. 
From what I can see, none of the decision makers are currently listening to health advice (aside from their own handful of experts who seem to say what they want).  So I don’t see how things will get better until they get bad enough that there’s no choice but to change direction.

 

Our Qld authorities keep saying things like, "This is exactly what we expected."

But I need to know why is this suddenly considered okay??

Not happy Jan!!

[chocolate-chip chooky]

A month ago, every single case was considered an emergency.

Now they are scaling back contact tracing, on top of all the other scaling back of sensibleness.

 

[BeachGal]

Pfizer received an EUA for Paxlovid and are shipping the courses of treatment they have available. 180-200k courses by end of 2021. They are projecting to manufacture 120 million courses in 2022. (One course is the equivalent of all pills given as a single treatment.) More would be better but at least it’s a start. This is fabulous news!

https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/press-release-detail/pfizer-receives-us-fda-emergency-use-authorization-novel

Regarding booster shots, if all goes well, in 2022 we might be able to get at least one of the three 2nd generation vaccines that looks promising in protecting against current and future variants.

 

Sotrovimab, the only mAb effective against omicron, was shipped out this week to a few states. Supply is limited and will be used judiciously in the next two weeks. However, 300,000 doses are projected for January.
 

https://endpts.com/us-ships-out-all-remaining-supplies-of-the-only-covid-treatment-that-works-against-omicron/

Quote

 

Early in vitro data suggests sotrovimab works against the Omicron variant. As such, we are actively preparing approximately 55,000 doses of sotrovimab for immediate allocation to state and territorial health departments. Jurisdictions will begin receiving the product as early as Tuesday, December 21, 2021. Current supply of sotrovimab is limited; however, we expect it to grow to approximately 300,000 additional doses in January.

In reality, very few hospitals nationwide will have adequate supplies of sotrovimab later this week and next week, when cases will likely surge due to holiday travel.

New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Illinois were the only states to receive more than 3,000 doses of sotrovimab each in the latest shipment.

And HHS is advising states to be cautious with its limited supplies, adding, “Until local prevalence of Omicron is greater than 20%, jurisdictions are encouraged to direct sotrovimab to sites that can provide IV treatment (within 48 hours of collection of a patient sample) to highest risk, eligible individuals diagnosed with a test that may identify a potential case of the Omicron variant.”

A spokesperson for GlaxoSmithKline said that GSK and Vir have established a strategic manufacturing network that will enable the manufacture of approximately 2 million doses of sotrovimab to support emergency supply in the first year following EUA.

 

 

Edited December 22, 2021 by BeachGal
spelling

[Melissa in Australia]

2 hours ago, chocolate-chip chooky said:

 

Our Qld authorities keep saying things like, "This is exactly what we expected."

But I need to know why is this suddenly considered okay??

Not happy Jan!!

Just saw in the QLD press conference that the Chief health officer said the spread of omicron is necessary. 😲

Guess that explains the sudden reversal of policy 🙄

I cannot work out how to link on my phone. But it was on abc covid blog QLD press update. 

 

[Ausmumof3]

Act 85

Tas 26

QLD 369

While not huge absolute numbers the rate of increase is very worrying

Marshall appears to have admitted that the number of cases is higher than forecast by Doherty model though still holding the “hospitalisations are low” line.

Except as we all know they lag by a week or two.  
 

Lots of issues in aged care here.

[Arcadia]

25 minutes ago, Melissa in Australia said:

Just saw in the QLD press conference that the Chief health officer said the spread of omicron is necessary. 😲

Guess that explains the sudden reversal of policy 🙄

I cannot work out how to link on my phone. But it was on abc covid blog QLD press update. 

 

https://amp.abc.net.au/article/100719882
“Chief Health Officer John Gerrard said the virus would soon reach its endemic phase.

"The spread of this virus, which has now been this particular strain, Omicron, is extremely contagious," Dr Gerrard said.

"Not only is the spread of this virus inevitable, it is necessary. In order for us to go from the pandemic phase to an endemic phase, the virus has to be widespread”

Edited December 23, 2021 by Arcadia
Weird formatting

[bookbard]

36 minutes ago, Arcadia said:

"Not only is the spread of this virus inevitable, it is necessary. In order for us to go from the pandemic phase to an endemic phase, the virus has to be widespread”

All I can say about that quote is What An Idiot.

Only good news about this crazy spread is that our local numbers are still really low. I'm hoping we get through Christmas unscathed. But I'm so worried about school next year. At least we have another month and a bit before it opens up again. 

[Ausmumof3]

40 minutes ago, Arcadia said:

https://amp.abc.net.au/article/100719882
“Chief Health Officer John Gerrard said the virus would soon reach its endemic phase.

"The spread of this virus, which has now been this particular strain, Omicron, is extremely contagious," Dr Gerrard said.

"Not only is the spread of this virus inevitable, it is necessary. In order for us to go from the pandemic phase to an endemic phase, the virus has to be widespread”

Also this is the second or possibly third time he said it.  He just replaced the previous CHO. 

[wathe]

Preprint:

"SARS-CoV-2 infection and persistence throughout the human body and brain"

SARS-CoV-2 virus found in brain tissue up to 230 days post infection, on autopsy.

There is so much we still have to learn about this bug.

ETA I see that @Ausmumof3already posted the same.

Edited December 23, 2021 by wathe

[bookbard]

1 hour ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Also this is the second or possibly third time he said it.  He just replaced the previous CHO. 

 

I am noticing women getting replaced by men . . . and worse covid outcomes because of it. 

[Ausmumof3]

21 minutes ago, bookbard said:

 

I am noticing women getting replaced by men . . . and worse covid outcomes because of it. 

Yes 100pc

[Ausmumof3]

Indoor mask mandate for NSW 👏

 

[Ausmumof3]

484 here

7 hospitalisations including a child (possibly only because other family members are in? Not clear)

 

[lewelma]

Numbers continue to fall in NZ (54 today). The released Aucklanders are not seeding it throughout the country.

No omicron yet in the community.

Edited December 23, 2021 by lewelma

[Ausmumof3]

Worldometer is close to highest cases again yesterday.  Deaths have still held fairly steady though, no big spikes.

[KSera]

4 hours ago, wathe said:

Preprint:

"SARS-CoV-2 infection and persistence throughout the human body and brain"

SARS-CoV-2 virus found in brain tissue up to 230 days post infection, on autopsy.

There is so much we still have to learn about this bug.

These are the kinds of things that make me still very cautious about my kids—particularly the unvaccinated—contracting this before we understand it and the long term ramifications. I expect they would all recover, but we don’t know anything about long term outlook. I don’t know why some people are concerned about the vaccine causing some kind of long term effect while not being at all concerned about the virus itself doing that. I’m aware that omicron is likely to make it much more difficult to avoid this forever though. 

[Ausmumof3]

Booster doses coming forward to four months from 4th of Jan subject to capacity 

 

[Ausmumof3]

5,612 cases in NSW 

1 death

currently 382 hospitalised 

3.42pc positivity

2,095 for Vic

8 deaths

397 in hospital

I imagine the stats over the next four to five days will be pretty unreliable, but I’ll probably post them anyway. Hoping that Christmas doesn’t turn into a super spread situation.  It’s possible that the worst has been from the functions in the lead up. 

[Ausmumof3]

From Jan 31 gap for boosters will be three months.

[Melissa in Australia]

4 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

From Jan 31 gap for boosters will be three months.

Every 3 months.? As in 4 times a year?

[Arcadia]

20 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Also this is the second or possibly third time he said it.  He just replaced the previous CHO. 

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/12/09/bill-gates-how-covid-pandemic-ends-and-becomes-endemic-with-omicron.html
“By the end of next year, the Covid pandemic could be over.

But that doesn’t mean the coronavirus will disappear. In a blog post on Tuesday, Bill Gates laid out one seemingly likely scenario: “At some point next year, Covid-19 will become an endemic disease in most places.”

If Covid becomes an endemic illness — a disease of relatively low severity that constantly circulates throughout certain parts of the world — the sickness’ pandemic phase could come to a close in 2022, the Microsoft co-founder and billionaire health philanthropist wrote.

Medical experts, including White House chief medical advisor Dr. Anthony Fauci, agree that Covid may never completely vanish. “It’s very unlikely that we’re ever going to be able to get rid of Covid,” Dr. Timothy Brewer, a professor of epidemiology at the UCLA Fielding School of Public Health, tells CNBC Make It.

… 

What living with Covid could look like

Living with Covid will require a shift in mindset, Brewer says: “We have to stop acting like if we do everything right, we’re going to make this virus completely go away.”

Rather, he says, people should try to “minimize the health and economic consequences as much as possible, and get on with our lives.”

In his blog post, Gates agreed. The risk of Covid will hopefully become so low that “you won’t need to factor it into your decision-making as much,” he wrote. “It won’t be primary when deciding whether to work from the office or let your kids go to their soccer game or watch a movie in a theater.””

[Arcadia]

33 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

From Jan 31 gap for boosters will be three months.

 

28 minutes ago, Melissa in Australia said:

Every 3 months.? As in 4 times a year?

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2021/12/22/1066315800/the-vaccines-work-against-severe-disease-heres-why-boosters-are-still-a-good-ide
“"There is probably no harm in speeding up to boost antibodies," she writes, just as long as you wait at least three months from the second shot. 

This is especially true for people who are at high risk for severe disease or live with someone who is. 

In fact, Germany's vaccine authority recently recommended that Germans get their boosters after three months in light of omicron. 

But Barouch cautions against speeding up the booster too much. 

"I wouldn't boost too much earlier," he says. "For example, I wouldn't boost a month or two after the initial vaccine or vaccines. But if somebody is in the second half of the six-month time frame, and if they really feel like they would benefit from a higher level of protection, then I don't see a downside in getting boosted a bit earlier."

…

6. How long will the protection from the booster last?

Nobody knows how long protection from infection will last. One preliminary study suggests it will start to wane about three months after the booster shot, as has been the case with the delta variant.

There's no information about how long protection against severe disease will last after a booster, but given the durability observed with only two shots, it's likely to be quite durable — much more than protection against infection.”

[Ausmumof3]

1 hour ago, Melissa in Australia said:

Every 3 months.? As in 4 times a year?

Sorry my mistake. - good catch. Gap for the 3rd booster.

No Answer from Paul Kelly re follow up boosters just “that’s the future, let’s worry about now” I think was the wording of the response.  I’m pretty confident it’s going to be three monthly though. Early data is showing waning antibody levels after ten weeks from third boosters. I’m not sure what I’ll do in that situation. Maybe try to time it for risk periods.

[Ausmumof3]

Re reduced effectiveness of boosters after ten weeks it’s in the UKSHA technical report page 24.

This report is also showing early signs of reduced severity for Omicron.

[Ausmumof3]

1 hour ago, Arcadia said:

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/12/09/bill-gates-how-covid-pandemic-ends-and-becomes-endemic-with-omicron.html
“By the end of next year, the Covid pandemic could be over.

But that doesn’t mean the coronavirus will disappear. In a blog post on Tuesday, Bill Gates laid out one seemingly likely scenario: “At some point next year, Covid-19 will become an endemic disease in most places.”

If Covid becomes an endemic illness — a disease of relatively low severity that constantly circulates throughout certain parts of the world — the sickness’ pandemic phase could come to a close in 2022, the Microsoft co-founder and billionaire health philanthropist wrote.

Medical experts, including White House chief medical advisor Dr. Anthony Fauci, agree that Covid may never completely vanish. “It’s very unlikely that we’re ever going to be able to get rid of Covid,” Dr. Timothy Brewer, a professor of epidemiology at the UCLA Fielding School of Public Health, tells CNBC Make It.

… 

What living with Covid could look like

Living with Covid will require a shift in mindset, Brewer says: “We have to stop acting like if we do everything right, we’re going to make this virus completely go away.”

Rather, he says, people should try to “minimize the health and economic consequences as much as possible, and get on with our lives.”

In his blog post, Gates agreed. The risk of Covid will hopefully become so low that “you won’t need to factor it into your decision-making as much,” he wrote. “It won’t be primary when deciding whether to work from the office or let your kids go to their soccer game or watch a movie in a theater.””

The issue I have with this interpretation is endemic doesn’t mean mild. Lots of endemic diseases are still quite nasty.

[Ausmumof3]

102 cases for ACT

589 in QLD

 

[lewelma]

51 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

The issue I have with this interpretation is endemic doesn’t mean mild. Lots of endemic diseases are still quite nasty.

I always think of malaria. Can you imagine worrying about every single misquito!?!

Edited December 24, 2021 by lewelma

[Wheres Toto]

Is anyone else seeing Ivermectin come up again?  I thought that had completely died out but someone in my local area asked for suggestions on a pharmacy that would fill it because her doctor prescribed it.  A bunch of people talking about having taken it for Covid and it helping.  

Ugh.

[Ausmumof3]

688 cases for SA.

Boosters here available from four months for AZ people from tomorrow 

reviewing restrictions over the next two days.

[bookbard]

It annoys me that just because something is endemic in one place, we apparently have to accept it's endemic everywhere.

Except - measles is no longer endemic in Australia. Either is polio. Malaria was eradicated in 1981. With political will, it is possible. 

Loving all the back-flips from the politicians right now. Really annoyed they put us through this though when they could've quite easily said on Dec 15, hey, we planned no masks or QR, but things have changed, so we'll just put that off for a bit. Oh, and the international people need to quarantine for a bit longer too. 

That would've saved a whole lot of people's Christmases.

[Ausmumof3]

Just now, bookbard said:

It annoys me that just because something is endemic in one place, we apparently have to accept it's endemic everywhere.

Except - measles is no longer endemic in Australia. Either is polio. Malaria was eradicated in 1981. With political will, it is possible. 

Loving all the back-flips from the politicians right now. Really annoyed they put us through this though when they could've quite easily said on Dec 15, hey, we planned no masks or QR, but things have changed, so we'll just put that off for a bit. Oh, and the international people need to quarantine for a bit longer too. 

That would've saved a whole lot of people's Christmases.

Yep.  Couldn’t agree more! Life was definitely way less stressful here before.  And the hotels etc that were most pushing for border openings are now the most affected with forced closures etc. I guess one difference with covid is the vaccines don’t prevent transmission as well which means long term quarantine.  I do hope we will get better vaccines in time.

 

[bookbard]

2 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

And the hotels etc that were most pushing for border openings are now the most affected with forced closures etc.

Exactly - all the hospitality places wanting to open up are now empty because no one wants to risk it right now. 

I feel like the govt can't cope with the idea of providing jobkeeper money again, so is pledging no lockdowns. Alas, what that means is the person with the empty restaurant closes down instead (just happened to the only restaurant in our town). 

This would be a perfect time for universal basic income. 

[Ausmumof3]

Good thread on the waning efficacy against symptoms after boosters with omicron 

“Among those who received an AZ (ChAdOx1-S) primary course, VE was ~60% 2-4 weeks after either a Pfizer (BNT161b2) or Moderna (mRNA-1273) booster. VE against symptomatic disease dropped to ~35% by 10 weeks after a Pfizer booster, and ~45% 5-9 weeks after a Moderna booster. “

Not enough data yet to know about severe disease but hopefully still somewhat protective 

[Ausmumof3]

Worldometer showing new daily case record again today for the first time in a while. 978,806. Deaths are still stable or even slightly reducing at just under 7000 per day.

[Wheres Toto]

8 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Good thread on the waning efficacy against symptoms after boosters with omicron 

“Among those who received an AZ (ChAdOx1-S) primary course, VE was ~60% 2-4 weeks after either a Pfizer (BNT161b2) or Moderna (mRNA-1273) booster. VE against symptomatic disease dropped to ~35% by 10 weeks after a Pfizer booster, and ~45% 5-9 weeks after a Moderna booster. “

Not enough data yet to know about severe disease but hopefully still somewhat protective 

I keep seeing that Moderna booster is better than Pfizer booster, but that seems inconclusive. 

The VE for Moderna is higher but that's after 5 - 9 weeks.  The Pfizer is after 10 weeks.    They aren't comparing the same type of data.

[Syllieann]

5 hours ago, Wheres Toto said:

I keep seeing that Moderna booster is better than Pfizer booster, but that seems inconclusive. 

The VE for Moderna is higher but that's after 5 - 9 weeks.  The Pfizer is after 10 weeks.    They aren't comparing the same type of data.

The Moderna ve at 5-9 weeks is included in the report and is also considerably higher than the Pfizer ve at 5-9 weeks.  And remember, this is Moderna booster after primary pfizer.  It would be reasonable to assume 3x Moderna might be a bit higher.

[Corraleno]

6 hours ago, Wheres Toto said:

I keep seeing that Moderna booster is better than Pfizer booster, but that seems inconclusive. 

The VE for Moderna is higher but that's after 5 - 9 weeks.  The Pfizer is after 10 weeks.    They aren't comparing the same type of data.

The analysis does include 5-9 week data for the Pfizer booster, and it's lower than Moderna, but the margin of error for Moderna is much wider and the bottom of the bar for Moderna is actually lower than Pfizer. Also, it's interesting that when the initial series was AZ rather than Pfizer, efficacy of the Moderna booster was actually slightly lower than Pfizer at 5-9 weeks.

I think there are a lot of caveats with the data in that report, the most concerning of which is that they don't provide any demographic information on the different vaccine/booster groups, so there's no way to know if the differences in efficacy could be attributed to other factors. Were the different boosters distributed to different areas with different populations? Were there age/ethnic/educational/income differences between the groups that received Pfizer versus Moderna? Was the average age of the patients who got their booster 10+ weeks ago older than those who just got their boosters 2-4 weeks before the study period? Etc.

[Ausmumof3]

30 minutes ago, Corraleno said:

The analysis does include 5-9 week data for the Pfizer booster, and it's lower than Moderna, but the margin of error for Moderna is much wider and the bottom of the bar for Moderna is actually lower than Pfizer. Also, it's interesting that when the initial series was AZ rather than Pfizer, efficacy of the Moderna booster was actually slightly lower than Pfizer at 5-9 weeks.

I think there are a lot of caveats with the data in that report, the most concerning of which is that they don't provide any demographic information on the different vaccine/booster groups, so there's no way to know if the differences in efficacy could be attributed to other factors. Were the different boosters distributed to different areas with different populations? Were there age/ethnic/educational/income differences between the groups that received Pfizer versus Moderna? Was the average age of the patients who got their booster 10+ weeks ago older than those who just got their boosters 2-4 weeks before the study period? Etc.

I don’t think you can draw much of a conclusion about the specific boosters only a broader one that they won’t be effective against infection for the long term.  

[kbutton]

Ohio broke our records for cases three days in a row, and today's total, which I expected to be lower due to the holidays, is still thousands over the record we shattered a couple of days ago. 

[Laura Corin]

1 hour ago, Corraleno said:

 

I think there are a lot of caveats with the data in that report, the most concerning of which is that they don't provide any demographic information on the different vaccine/booster groups, so there's no way to know if the differences in efficacy could be attributed to other factors. Were the different boosters distributed to different areas with different populations? Were there age/ethnic/educational/income differences between the groups that received Pfizer versus Moderna? Was the average age of the patients who got their booster 10+ weeks ago older than those who just got their boosters 2-4 weeks before the study period? Etc.

To your last point - in the UK the boosters were distributed by cohort. The earliest people were very elderly, in care homes, working in the NHS or medically fragile. The cohorts thereafter processed down by age. I had my booster as soon as I could, as a healthy 58-y-o, on 21 November. We weren't given a choice about whether we received Pfizer or Moderna. Eta the spacing was originally 6 months after second jab but was then reduced to 3 months.

Edited December 24, 2021 by Laura Corin

[Tenaj]

35 minutes ago, kbutton said:

Ohio broke our records for cases three days in a row, and today's total, which I expected to be lower due to the holidays, is still thousands over the record we shattered a couple of days ago. 

And I keep seeing those huge numbers and wondering how many more there are because so many are taking the at home tests and those aren't getting reported.   We know so many people right now with Covid or recovering from Covid.  More than the last two years put together.  

Edited December 24, 2021 by Tenaj

[Acadie]

33 minutes ago, kbutton said:

Ohio broke our records for cases three days in a row, and today's total, which I expected to be lower due to the holidays, is still thousands over the record we shattered a couple of days ago. 

And way more cases aren't being counted because people are just rapid testing at home.

Dd15 tested positive this morning, after waking up with a sore throat and headache. No Christmas gathering with dh's family this year. So far it seems like a cold and not the worst cold at that. She's double vaxxed but wasn't eligible for her booster until April. It's spreading like wildfire among teens here, especially 13-15 year-old winter athletes. 

We opened Christmas presents and stockings last night, since we were going to be seeing dh's family. I'm glad we got that in before she got stuck in her room!

[Corraleno]

12 minutes ago, Laura Corin said:

To your last point - in the UK the boosters were distributed by cohort. The earliest people were very elderly, in care homes, working in the NHS or medically fragile. The cohorts thereafter processed down by age. I had my booster as soon as I could, as a healthy 58-y-o, on 21 November. We weren't given a choice about whether we received Pfizer or Moderna.

Thanks for posting, that is very useful information. Since the data was collected from November 27 to December 17, if healthy under-60s only even became eligible a week before that, then the people who were getting their boosters 10 weeks earlier (in late September or early October) would be the most high risk and/or those most likely to have a poor immune response to the vaccines to begin with. And there's no information on differences between the breakthrough infection group and the "control group" (people with symptoms who tested negative). So, for example, if there is a higher proportion of HCWs or other essential workers in the PCR-positive group vs the PCR-negative group, then the higher levels of exposure in that group may be skewing efficacy calculations.

[Bambam]

Texas had about 5K confirmed (aka PCR) positives 8 days ago. Yesterday was over 10K. But we won't know any counts until Monday because they are taking Friday-Sunday off. This seems like super bad timing. I know those folks want to spend time with their families, but it seems like it would be better to ask them to work this weekend and give them a week off later. 

So, I've thought about starting a local pool guessing how many cases we will see on Monday. 

[math teacher]

I keep seeing high numbers, but I'm not really seeing them where my parents or I live. We are at 25 per 100,000.

For comparison, what are your percentages?

[TexasProud]

3.5. per 100,000 at home.   68 here in my MIL’s part of Houston. 

[KSera]

32 minutes ago, math teacher said:

I keep seeing high numbers, but I'm not really seeing them where my parents or I live. We are at 25 per 100,000.

For comparison, what are your percentages?

Are those 7 day averages or single day? 

[math teacher]

44 minutes ago, KSera said:

Are those 7 day averages or single day? 

7 day average

[Corraleno]

I compared the 7 day average and the most recent one-day numbers for my county, and there is a big difference: average is 18/100K, but on 12/22 it was 42/100K. And the positivity for that day was 7.8%, vs around 4% a couple of weeks ago. So I think it's just starting to hit here.