wuhan - coronavirus

[freesia]

8 minutes ago, square_25 said:

How's this for a risk chart? 😄

https://xkcd.com/2333/

Man, I was looking forward to the test tube eating contest!

[TracyP]

51 minutes ago, Corraleno said:

The new database was built by Palantir, a private data mining & surveillance company co-founded by billionaire Trump donor Peter Thiel. Palantir received two no-bid contracts, worth $25 million, to build and manage the Covid database. Palantir is controversial because of their secrecy and their surveillance contracts with ICE and other law enforcement organizations, and the data they collect will not be available to the public (unlike CDC data). Hence the concerns about politicization and transparency.

It looks like Palantir is already doing covid data collection for the NHS. I guess that makes them a logical choice, tho I admit I never know what to make of these no-bid contracts. I believe the UK is being transparent with their data. For now, I am holding out hope that the U.S. will also be transparent with the data.

[Ausmumof3]

Reuters (another treatment that may show some promise although only a small study)
 

Lung radiation may hasten COVID-19 pneumonia recovery

A low dose of radiation to the lungs of COVID-19 pneumonia patients can help them recover more quickly, a small study suggests. Doctors at Emory University in Atlanta treated 10 such patients with lung radiation and compared them to 10 patients of similar ages who received usual care, without radiation. With radiation, the average time to significant improvement was three days, compared to 12 days in the control group. 

Other potential effects included a shorter average time to hospital discharge (12 days with radiation versus 20 days without it) and a lower risk of mechanical ventilation (10% with radiation versus 40% without it). But those two differences were too small to rule out the possibility they were due to chance, the researchers found. 

The radiation group was "a little older, a little sicker, and their lungs were a little more damaged ... but despite that we saw a strong signal of efficacy," Emory's Dr. Mohammad Khan told Reuters.

Khan noted that in the radiation group, COVID-19 medications were withheld before and after the treatment, so the results reflect the effect of the radiation alone. 

"Radiotherapy," Khan said, "can reduce the inflammation in the lungs of COVID-19 patients and reduce the cytokines that are causing the inflammation." Cytokines are proteins made by the immune system. The results on the first five patients have been accepted for publication by the journal Cancer. 

The results on all 10 were posted on Tuesday ahead of peer review on the website medRxiv. The researchers have launched a randomized controlled trial of the treatment and expect to eventually include multiple centers. 

Edited July 16, 2020 by Ausmumof3

[Corraleno]

17 minutes ago, TracyP said:

It looks like Palantir is already doing covid data collection for the NHS. I guess that makes them a logical choice, tho I admit I never know what to make of these no-bid contracts. I believe the UK is being transparent with their data. For now, I am holding out hope that the U.S. will also be transparent with the data.

Palantir built the database months ago, it has been functional since April. What's different now is that hospitals have been told they cannot report their data to CDC, it can only be reported to the HHS/Palantir database, which is not public. Totally bypassing the CDC in the middle of a pandemic, while funneling all data to a database created on a no-bid contract by a private company with ties to the president is extremely unusual. So people are concerned that (1) the administration can claim the numbers are whatever they want them to be and no one else will have access to the data, and (2) Palantir could mine/use/sell the data for their own purposes.

[Ausmumof3]

2 minutes ago, Corraleno said:

Palantir built the database months ago, it has been functional since April. What's different now is that hospitals have been told they cannot report their data to CDC, it can only be reported to the HHS/Palantir database, which is not public. Totally bypassing the CDC in the middle of a pandemic, while funneling all data to a database created on a no-bid contract by a private company with ties to the president is extremely unusual. So people are concerned that (1) the administration can claim the numbers are whatever they want them to be and no one else will have access to the data, and (2) Palantir could mine/use/sell the data for their own purposes.

I think they still can report to CDC but they’re no longer required to?

[Corraleno]

4 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

I think they still can report to CDC but they’re no longer required to?

The instructions issued by the administration explicitly say that hospitals should not submit data to CDC. I supposed some hospitals could submit it to the CDC anyway, but if they're only getting partial data, they can't do anything with that anyway. The only organization that will now have complete data is the administration's department of Health & Human Services.

The head of the CDC is a virologist and MD with years of research experience as well as public health experience. The deputy director is also an MD with 30 years experience in public health. They have been cut out of the loop in favor of HHS, where both the Secretary and Deputy Secretary are lawyers with zero background in medicine, public health, or epidemiology, and the deputy Chief of Staff for Policy has a business degree. These are the people who will be making policy decisions about the pandemic from now on.

[TracyP]

12 minutes ago, Corraleno said:

Palantir built the database months ago, it has been functional since April. What's different now is that hospitals have been told they cannot report their data to CDC, it can only be reported to the HHS/Palantir database, which is not public. Totally bypassing the CDC in the middle of a pandemic, while funneling all data to a database created on a no-bid contract by a private company with ties to the president is extremely unusual. So people are concerned that (1) the administration can claim the numbers are whatever they want them to be and no one else will have access to the data, and (2) Palantir could mine/use/sell the data for their own purposes.

I see where this could potentially be very problematic. The NHS agreement is very clear that they cannot use the data and must destroy it after a certain time. Do we know that the U.S. won't have the same deal? Won't states still be releasing data? Where are you seeing that these numbers won't be made public?

Fwiw, I have huge problems with the fact that politicians give these deals to their buddies. But it is not only one party that does this and it happens at every level of government. That doesn't factor in on my thoughts on this database because I have come to believe that almost every person in power does this. I hate it, but it seems to be the norm.

I'm trying so hard to not be political, but I have to say... do you have any clue how uncomfortable I am defending this administration in any way? Lolol, it is killing me... I just don't have enough information yet to determine this new database is an attempt to fudge the numbers. 

 

[TracyP]

3 minutes ago, Corraleno said:

The instructions issued by the administration explicitly say that hospitals should not submit data to CDC. I supposed some hospitals could submit it to the CDC anyway, but if they're only getting partial data, they can't do anything with that anyway. The only organization that will now have complete data is the administration's department of Health & Human Services.

The head of the CDC is a virologist and MD with years of research experience as well as public health experience. The deputy director is also an MD with 30 years experience in public health. They have been cut out of the loop in favor of HHS, where both the Secretary and Deputy Secretary are lawyers with zero background in medicine, public health, or epidemiology, and the deputy Chief of Staff for Policy has a business degree. These are the people who will be making policy decisions about the pandemic from now on.

But this is already happening, right? I mean the CDC has absolutely no pull right now anyway. The administration is clearly going to continue to minimize them regardless of this database.

[ElizabethB]

2 hours ago, ElizabethB said:

Really interesting HCQ and Covid-19 death rates during pause in its use, from FrenchSoir, never heard of them.

http://www.francesoir.fr/societe-sante/covid-19-hydroxychloroquine-works-irrefutable-proof

 

So, Panama has a rising death rate now, after they discontinued HCQ.  They just reinstated HCQ.

If their deaths go down in 2 weeks, that seems like pretty good proof of HCQ to me, a future prediction the will either work or not, although it could still be random chance.

Panama deaths, HCQ use stopped at end of May, at just under 10 deaths daily then, now up to high 20's.  https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/panama/

[Ausmumof3]

https://apple.news/AILKvyRGURmGHBVGRbWbMkQ

[Corraleno]

49 minutes ago, TracyP said:

Where are you seeing that these numbers won't be made public?

It was in the NYT article that was linked upthread. HHS has said that they will share data with CDC, but that HHS will "control" the data stream from now on. If they felt the CDC's data collection system needed upgrading, why not hire someone to revamp the CDC system, instead of handing Thiel's company $25 million to build an entirely separate system that will be directly controlled by the administration? HHS can say they will be transparent and share the data, but with zero oversight there's no way for anyone outside the administration to know whether the data being released is truly accurate and complete or if it's been manipulated to suit a specific agenda.

[Jean in Newcastle]

11 minutes ago, square_25 said:

Yeah, practically speaking, you're right -- it makes no difference, as long as the states keep reporting the data. Which I hope they do. 

The skeptical part of me hopes that states keep track of their own data so that if there are any big discrepancies then they can point it out and keep things honest. 

[Pen]

2 hours ago, ElizabethB said:

So, Panama has a rising death rate now, after they discontinued HCQ.  They just reinstated HCQ.

If their deaths go down in 2 weeks, that seems like pretty good proof of HCQ to me, a future prediction the will either work or not, although it could still be random chance.

Panama deaths, HCQ use stopped at end of May, at just under 10 deaths daily then, now up to high 20's.  https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/panama/

 

Imo: More HCQ should be being produced. Pronto. 

It should be more easily available to people who want to use it prophylactically as well as to people who need it for Lupus etc.

 

It has a long half life so that after a loading dose it should be able to be used as prophylaxis for much of “general public” on a long schedule — that is, for people not in health care or similar who would probably need it more often as per the ? MATH or other protocols I have seen  .

I don’t expect it would stop Covid19, but think it would be one more thing like vitamin D and Zinc and Selenium etc that would likely help keep cases that get past distance and masks and hygiene be more mild.  And it is not that hugely dangerous. People used it for malaria for a long time. 

 

[Matryoshka]

1 hour ago, Corraleno said:

It was in the NYT article that was linked upthread. HHS has said that they will share data with CDC, but that HHS will "control" the data stream from now on. If they felt the CDC's data collection system needed upgrading, why not hire someone to revamp the CDC system, instead of handing Thiel's company $25 million to build an entirely separate system that will be directly controlled by the administration? HHS can say they will be transparent and share the data, but with zero oversight there's no way for anyone outside the administration to know whether the data being released is truly accurate and complete or if it's been manipulated to suit a specific agenda.

And we were worried about whether China's data was accurate. ..

[Ausmumof3]

BREAKING: 1 new COVID-19 case in SA today. 

It’s a woman who just returned from overseas, did 2 weeks of quarantine in Victoria and returned 2 negative tests for the virus, but tested positive upon returning to SA. 

STATE TOTAL: 444
 

so I guess she either got it in quarantine or had a longer than 14 day incubation.  Or the tests were faulty.

[Ausmumof3]

https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKCN24G29Z?__twitter_impression=true
 

Kenya

4 health workers died and an outbreak at a maternity hospital.

[Melissa in Australia]

317new cases in Victoria today. Highest number to date

Level 4 restrictions may come in if numbers continue to climb 

[TracyP]

3 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

BREAKING: 1 new COVID-19 case in SA today. 

It’s a woman who just returned from overseas, did 2 weeks of quarantine in Victoria and returned 2 negative tests for the virus, but tested positive upon returning to SA. 

STATE TOTAL: 444
 

so I guess she either got it in quarantine or had a longer than 14 day incubation.  Or the tests were faulty.

That's unfortunate. 🙁 Do you know, are positive and negative cases quarantined in the same building?

[Ausmumof3]

9 minutes ago, TracyP said:

That's unfortunate. 🙁 Do you know, are positive and negative cases quarantined in the same building?

They aren’t but potential positive cases could be I guess 

[TracyP]

Just now, Ausmumof3 said:

They aren’t but potential positive cases could be I guess 

Gotcha, that's good to hear though. It seems it would be inevitable for this to happen occasionally if they were housed together. At least they are taking the right steps to prevent spread in quarantine itself. And like you said there could be other reasons this case wasn't caught in the 14 days.

[Ausmumof3]

10 minutes ago, TracyP said:

Gotcha, that's good to hear though. It seems it would be inevitable for this to happen occasionally if they were housed together. At least they are taking the right steps to prevent spread in quarantine itself. And like you said there could be other reasons this case wasn't caught in the 14 days.

Lol well we hope they are.  The entire Melbourne outbreak appears to be linked back to the flawed quarantine so far so let’s hope they fixed it!

[TracyP]

4 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Lol well we hope they are.  The entire Melbourne outbreak appears to be linked back to the flawed quarantine so far so let’s hope they fixed it!

Was that where the security guards were um, mingling with the guests? I remember hearing about it, but didn't realize that was at the root of the Melbourne outbreak. How frustrating!

[Laura Corin]

https://covid.joinzoe.com/post/skin-rash-covid

 

[ktgrok]

8 hours ago, Pen said:

 

Imo: More HCQ should be being produced. Pronto. 

 

I don’t expect it would stop Covid19, but think it would be one more thing like vitamin D and Zinc and Selenium etc that would likely help keep cases that get past distance and masks and hygiene be more mild.  And it is not that hugely dangerous. People used it for malaria for a long time. 

 

It can have some pretty yucky side effects even when not dangerous to the person. My DH has taken it for a trip to India, and was miserable. 

[Pen]

15 hours ago, Pen said:

 

I still want all of the above.  Small stable and distanced cohorts And also everyone who can to wear masks. 

 

From the UCSF Grand Rounds someone posted yesterday, Safe School opening needs a multifaceted approach.  All the items in bold on the chart, and the grey to extent reasonably feasible. 

on the one chart the reason for less bold type on ventilation was that while important, it isn’t possible in many schools without major remodeling. ... and cleaning / disinfection is thought to be less useful than the other items. 

 

The charts are missing “outdoors” as much as possible.  The video gave a contact email.  I think the task force needs to hear “outdoors” as an addition to their charts. 

[Pen]

55 minutes ago, Ktgrok said:

It can have some pretty yucky side effects even when not dangerous to the person. My DH has taken it for a trip to India, and was miserable. 

 

Certainly it shouldn’t be forced on anyone.

 

Bur I still think there should be plenty so that people who want it should be able to get it without it being a big deal.  It is very inexpensive compared to a lot of other stuff, like Remdesivir etc.  (not meaning that they have overlapping usefulness, just cost comparison). 

 

 

Edited July 16, 2020 by Pen

[vonfirmath]

7 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

BREAKING: 1 new COVID-19 case in SA today. 

It’s a woman who just returned from overseas, did 2 weeks of quarantine in Victoria and returned 2 negative tests for the virus, but tested positive upon returning to SA. 

STATE TOTAL: 444
 

so I guess she either got it in quarantine or had a longer than 14 day incubation.  Or the tests were faulty.

Or maybe not faulty -- just not as accurate as we'd hoped (though you'd think testing twice would help that)

 

[Ausmumof3]

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/07/16/us-coronavirus-data-has-already-disappeared-after-trump-administration-shifted-control-from-cdc-to-hhs.html?__twitter_impression=true
 

looks like the data was temporarily taken down from the CDC site but has since been reinstated.  John Hopkins data is still collected independently from states so should be a somewhat reliable back up resource 

“Dr. Jennifer Nuzzo, an epidemiologist at Johns Hopkins University, which runs one of the most popular third-party coronavirus data dashboards, said the policy change won't impact the Hopkins site because they've managed to source their data directly from states. She added, however, that the policy change raises questions about the transparency of the data and the role of the CDC in the ongoing U.S. response.

"What worries me is that we seem to be pushing rather suddenly in the midst of what feels like a very urgent time in terms of surging cases that we're seeing across the country," she told CNBC. "The question is, what are we going to lose in this transition, and in particular at a moment where we really don't want to lose any ability to understand what's happening in hospitals."

Nuzzo expressed concern that the administration didn't appear to fully plan out how the transition in data reporting would work and didn't give hospitals or researchers a warning about the change or how it might affect them. 

"I think it's reasonable to worry that it could lead to erosion of capacities at a moment where we very much can't afford to lose any abilities at this point," she added. "I don't fully understand how it's going to work. That in and of itself is problematic."

 

[Ausmumof3]

80 per cent of the patients who agreed to participate who were hospitalised for Covid in Sydney in March still have some symptoms.

https://amp.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/jul/17/most-covid-19-patients-admitted-to-a-sydney-hospital-in-march-still-have-symptoms?__twitter_impression=true

Edited July 17, 2020 by Ausmumof3

[Ausmumof3]

ABC AUSTRALIA:

Hundreds of US children suffer inflammatory condition

A Centers for Disease Control and Prevention says 342 US children and teens have developed a serious inflammatory condition linked to COVID-19.

Dr Ermias Belay says the average age among cases was eight and most cases were in children aged between one and 14. 

"Figures show that 40 per cent of cases were in Latino kids and 35 per cent were in black children," he said.

One in four affected children were put on ventilators, but deaths have been rare.

The condition — multisystem inflammatory syndrome — is rare but can occur in children with current or recent COVID-19 infections.

Symptoms include fever and problems in at least two organs, often including the heart.

Digestive problems are common, and some cases have been mistaken with Kawasaki disease and toxic shock syndrome.

[Ausmumof3]

Worldometer is already showing 73,000 cases for US today and it hasn’t ticked over yet.  Which would be the highest number of new cases in a day so far.  

[Wheres Toto]

6 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Worldometer is already showing 73,000 cases for US today and it hasn’t ticked over yet.  Which would be the highest number of new cases in a day so far.  

It's only 9:30pm for me on the East Coast and earlier in the rest of the country.

[Ausmumof3]

1 minute ago, Where's Toto? said:

It's only 9:30pm for me on the East Coast and earlier in the rest of the country.

Yep.  I think there’s a set time when everything resets for the next day on their site though not related to the countries time zone.  It’s somewhere between midday and four pm here that it rolls over but I’m not sure exactly when. 

[Corraleno]

14 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Yep.  I think there’s a set time when everything resets for the next day on their site though not related to the countries time zone.  It’s somewhere between midday and four pm here that it rolls over but I’m not sure exactly when. 

I think technically Worldometer  is supposed to reset at midnight GMT, but there's usually a lag of an hour or so before all the data (esp. from CA & TX) gets logged, and then it ticks over around 6 PM west coast time.

[Ausmumof3]

428 new cases in Vic and 3 deaths.  New restrictions coming in in NSW.  

[Ausmumof3]

2 minutes ago, square_25 said:

Yeah, that's really high :-/. And anecdotally, we know a few people who still have symptoms months later. I think the only person we know who just recovered was one of our babysitters, who's in her 20s. She was quite sick, but she seems back to normal, as far as we can tell. 

Welp, this is not making me want to leave the house more, let me tell you. 

Even in those not hospitalised it looks like around 30-40 pc are still having some symptoms.  Mostly mild stuff like loss of smell or fatigue but four months in is long enough to make me nervy.  We’ve committed to a few things over the next couple of weeks but I’m not committing to anything else out of home for a while now till I see what happens with Melbourne.  

[Ausmumof3]

Tweet from BBC journalist in China 

“Following only one official new #coronavirus case, more than 600 flights into and out of the #Xinjiang capital #Urumqi have been cancelled and the subway shut down. Just 1 #covid19 case! Questions being asked if there’s a cover up of an outbreak there. It’s definitely drastic.”

[Ausmumof3]

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/anae.15201
 

mortality rates in ICU seem to have dropped from 50pc to 40pc between March and May.  Still higher than the 22pc for usual viral pneumonia but improving.

[Laura Corin]

3 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Tweet from BBC journalist in China 

“Following only one official new #coronavirus case, more than 600 flights into and out of the #Xinjiang capital #Urumqi have been cancelled and the subway shut down. Just 1 #covid19 case! Questions being asked if there’s a cover up of an outbreak there. It’s definitely drastic.”

There could be a political reason. China's control of Xinjiang is dictatorial.

[Amira]

15 minutes ago, Laura Corin said:

There could be a political reason. China's control of Xinjiang is dictatorial.

That’s exactly what I was thinking.  Having an excuse to shut down Xinjiang even more completely than normal would be very convenient for China right now.

[Ausmumof3]

1 hour ago, Laura Corin said:

There could be a political reason. China's control of Xinjiang is dictatorial.

Yes I wondered about that.  That’s where the Uighur Muslims are right?  It could be political.

[Ausmumof3]

1 hour ago, Amira said:

That’s exactly what I was thinking.  Having an excuse to shut down Xinjiang even more completely than normal would be very convenient for China right now.

I also thought it was odd the timing of the Covid outbreak coming back to Hong Kong with the intro of the new security law.  But maybe I’m just getting too conspiracist about it all right now.  

[Ausmumof3]

https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKCN24I0OR?taid=5f11a206977e0100010f0746&utm_campaign=trueAnthem%3A Trending Content&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=twitter&__twitter_impression=true
 

20 minute blood test for Covid I think past and current infections

[Pen]

11 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Tweet from BBC journalist in China 

“Following only one official new #coronavirus case, more than 600 flights into and out of the #Xinjiang capital #Urumqi have been cancelled and the subway shut down. Just 1 #covid19 case! Questions being asked if there’s a cover up of an outbreak there. It’s definitely drastic.”

 

Could be they have knowledge about long term dangers etc that make shut down like that make sense

[Pen]

5 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKCN24I0OR?taid=5f11a206977e0100010f0746&utm_campaign=trueAnthem%3A Trending Content&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=twitter&__twitter_impression=true
 

20 minute blood test for Covid I think past and current infections

 

I hope this works and can be made widely available fast!!!!

 

 

[ElizabethB]

20 minutes ago, Pen said:

 

I hope this works and can be made widely available fast!!!!

 

 

It seems really clever:

"Their test, using 25 microlitres of plasma from blood samples, looks for agglutination, or a clustering of red blood cells, that the coronavirus causes."

Also, simple to duplicate for other countries, could be a fast, cheap screen.

I would think they would run into problems with people on blood thinners, Hemophiliacs, Von Willibrands, Factor V Leiden, other clotting disorders, but would be a fast way to screen everyone else.  

[Acadie]

Edited for accuracy: Results of King's College Study study linking three types of rashes to Covid as key diagnostic signs.

 https://www.kcl.ac.uk/news/skin-rash-should-be-considered-fourth-key-symptom-of-covid

(Cross-posted on Covid toes thread)

Edited July 18, 2020 by Acadie

[Pen]

3 hours ago, ElizabethB said:

It seems really clever:

"Their test, using 25 microlitres of plasma from blood samples, looks for agglutination, or a clustering of red blood cells, that the coronavirus causes."

Also, simple to duplicate for other countries, could be a fast, cheap screen.

I would think they would run into problems with people on blood thinners, Hemophiliacs, Von Willibrands, Factor V Leiden, other clotting disorders, but would be a fast way to screen everyone else.  

 

I’m wondering what they use for the  antigen to determine the agglutination , and how they determine that it’s SARS2 / Covid19 caused agglutination rather than blood type.  

[Ausmumof3]

A study showed that to get r0<1 people need to be tested and all contacts traced and self isolating within 3 days.  It’s easy to see why contact tracing works for bringing a small outbreak under control but you really need the “hammer” of lockdown to get it down to numbers that contact tracers can manage effectively. 

[cintinative]

Thoughts on this? Note: preprint study,  not reviewed
https://www.scmp.com/news/world/article/3093690/coronavirus-are-two-strains-together-deadlier-one?fbclid=IwAR0PurzOhu9KivwpSljHiAa0QaU_JCYnHG7-0ZgzHMzam54XBTya9LuDLPw