wuhan - coronavirus

[Ausmumof3]

4 hours ago, Innisfree said:

This sounds promising. 

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-53467022

Does sound good.  I wonder how it interacts with the whole cytokine storm over active immune system thing.  

[Innisfree]

7 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Does sound good.  I wonder how it interacts with the whole cytokine storm over active immune system thing.  

Good question. I hope we find out more soon.

 

[Acadie]

13 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

https://www.thelocal.ch/20200715/only-those-with-plastic-visors-were-infected-swiss-government-warns-against-face-shields/amp
 

just a single anecdote but this feels worth knowing about.  Particularly as some airlines are moving toward complementary face shields instead of masks.

 

Thanks so much for posting. Our pediatrician & practice are advocating for face shields as an alternative to masks, so I'm forwarding this to their office. I think we'll use a face shield only as added protection if we need to go anywhere that seems particularly risky.

[Guest]

I am planning to use a face shield over a mask for me. I’ve ordered some and plan to add vinyl to decorate them with things like princess crowns, so they look less clinical and hopefully less intimidating for kids. 

[Melissa in Australia]

7 hours ago, Acadie said:

 

Thanks so much for posting. Our pediatrician & practice are advocating for face shields as an alternative to masks, so I'm forwarding this to their office. I think we'll use a face shield only as added protection if we need to go anywhere that seems particularly risky.

I sent the link to my oldest ds. He said from an aerodynamic perspective it is pretty obvious that a mask would be better. 

He is in Melbourne. He is using a industrial face mask with replaceable filters 

[TracyP]

54 minutes ago, Plum said:

MedCram just posted this at the top of his FB link to his latest video about at-home tests. Anyone know where he gets that number? I’ve been hearing for months that case counts are greatly undercounted and the current case count can be multiplied by 10-100x  to get an accurate number. 

The current COVID-19 testing strategy in the United States is estimated by the CDC to pick up less than 10% of infections...  

This NYT article talks about where these numbers come from. The article says that this is the study that the CDC used to get those estimates. I think 10 times (or more)  is a good estimate for early on. I'm gonna second @square_25 At this point I've been assuming we are catching 20-25% of the cases.

[matrips]

Saw this picture today.  It looks different as a picture than as just numbers.

2 minutes ago, matrips said:

Saw this picture today.  It looks different as a picture than as just numbers.

 

 

I like the graphic, but given that lots of people get tested more than once, it would be interested to see the number of people tested, not the number of tests.

[Jean in Newcastle]

10 minutes ago, square_25 said:

Hmmmmm. I'm not entirely sure what that's trying to communicate, to be honest. That there are many more tests than cases? That there are many more cases than deaths? That there are many more US citizens than tests? 

Am I missing a key that tells what the colors mean? 

[Corraleno]

17 minutes ago, square_25 said:

Hmmmmm. I'm not entirely sure what that's trying to communicate, to be honest. That there are many more tests than cases? That there are many more cases than deaths? That there are many more US citizens than tests? 

Given that the source appears to something called "Ohio Liberation," I'm guessing that's supposed to show that 140,000 dead Americans is no big deal and that hardly anyone is really sick. 

ETA: Apparently "Ohio Liberation" = some guy on Facebook who makes similar graphs proving that CV19 is no worse than the flu, and is involved in organizing anti-mask rallies against the "tyranny" of Gov. DeWine.

I wonder where they got the 4.3 million cases — that's about 400K more than Worldometer lists.

Edited July 20, 2020 by Corraleno

[Jean in Newcastle]

7 minutes ago, square_25 said:

It's blurry and on the left. 

Oh.  I thought that the placement on the map of the US meant something.  But I guess not.  What a stupid graphic.  (Obviously in my opinion)

[Jean in Newcastle]

1 minute ago, square_25 said:

It took me some time to figure out that there was no point to the map, other than to create a visual for the total population. 

It doesn't show the effects of the virus on previously healthy young(er) people who still can't work months after getting it.  It doesn't show the effects of the high costs of hospitalization for those who got it but still survived.  It doesn't show the devastation those deaths cause to families - especially in some families where entire generations are now wiped out.  And putting it in dots like that (do the total number of dots actually add up to the population of the US or is that meaningless too?), it makes 100,000 deaths for one dot seem so little.  I mean, it's just one dot, right?  But (as of today) 143,723 people have died in the US alone. 

[Jean in Newcastle]

2 minutes ago, square_25 said:

By the way, someone should pat me on the back. DH has now discovered TONS of people at his work who had gotten COVID. I'm extremely glad that we started home when we did, because that could have absolutely been us. 

Most of them have lingering symptoms months later, by the way. 

I was just telling ds last night that I understand what it's like to have lingering symptoms from a virus.  I got a virus at the end of college over 30 years ago.  I am still chronically ill and in pain.  I hope hope hope that the lingering effects of this virus is not like what I have experienced. 

[Ausmumof3]

Oxford vaccine studies are looking positive.  Vaccines seem to be safe and generate some kind of immune response.

https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2020-07-20/oxford-astra-covid-vaccine-shows-dual-immune-action-researcher?__twitter_impression=true

[Ausmumof3]

Apparently trump tweeted a picture of himself in a mask and called wearing masks patriotic.  Really hoping that generates a shift in the discussion around masks now.

[kbutton]

On 7/19/2020 at 7:48 PM, Ausmumof3 said:

https://www.thelocal.ch/20200715/only-those-with-plastic-visors-were-infected-swiss-government-warns-against-face-shields/amp
 

just a single anecdote but this feels worth knowing about.  Particularly as some airlines are moving toward complementary face shields instead of masks.

I wonder if someone could attach a fabric neckpiece/sidepiece to a face shield to make it effective--something that ties behind the neck and head like a mask would. I know the masks with the plastic mouth area fog up, so maybe a shield with attached fabric, if it works, could be used for those that need to lip read or see full faces for some other reason. 

Updated: looky here...https://www.designboom.com/design/x-hood-face-shield-stuck-design-05-15-2020/  I bet someone could make a homemade version too.

Edited July 21, 2020 by kbutton
Found an image

[chiguirre]

2 hours ago, matrips said:

Saw this picture today.  It looks different as a picture than as just numbers.

I look at this map and see a disaster in the making. All those gray dots are tinder for Covid to burn through. I'm sure that's not what Ohio Liberation intended but sitting in a hot spot, things feel very dire.

[Wheres Toto]

18 minutes ago, kbutton said:

I wonder if someone could attach a fabric neckpiece/sidepiece to a face shield to make it effective--something that ties behind the neck and head like a mask would. I know the masks with the plastic mouth area fog up, so maybe a shield with attached fabric, if it works, could be used for those that need to lip read or see full faces for some other reason. 

Updated: looky here...https://www.designboom.com/design/x-hood-face-shield-stuck-design-05-15-2020/  I bet someone could make a homemade version too.

This is what I'm doing for the teachers at my business.   I have one shield that's on a visor hat and one that's the typical band with the foam.    My mother is a quilter and she's making drapes that attach to the visor on the top and then drape around the shield on three sides.   I think they will work like a combination of a visor and mask because air will have to go through the drape to get in/out.  

[The Governess]

11 minutes ago, chiguirre said:

I look at this map and see a disaster in the making. All those gray dots are tinder for Covid to burn through. I'm sure that's not what Ohio Liberation intended but sitting in a hot spot, things feel very dire.

 

And every 1-2 days another green dot gets filled. 

[TCB]

2 hours ago, square_25 said:

To me, those two messages seem to be opposites, lol. If hardly anyone is sick, it's going to be a lot worse when many people are ;-). 

That’s what I thought when I looked at it - Oh no we’ve got so many more to go!

[TCB]

1 hour ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Apparently trump tweeted a picture of himself in a mask and called wearing masks patriotic.  Really hoping that generates a shift in the discussion around masks now.

I really hope so! I’m glad that he did.

[Melissa in Australia]

374 new cases in Victoria, 3 more deaths 

Some stupid idiot had symptoms, got tested in Melbourne on Friday then drove somehow past the Roadblocks and travelled to my rural town, over 400 km.they stayed with relatives. they then went to just about every single shop and pub in the town and coastal village before they got their results last night. Positive. It has caused mad panic in the town. It is mostly elderly. Half the town wants to get tested and just about all the shops are closed. 

[The Governess]

I have to share these two screenshots. These were projections from May 2 for the U.S. and California. We are getting close to August 4 now and these projections are surprisingly close.

ETA: the projections are now 213,000 deaths in the US by Nov 1 and 16,000 for CA. 😞

 

Edited July 21, 2020 by lovelearnandlive

[Jean in Newcastle]

9 minutes ago, Melissa in Australia said:

374 new cases in Victoria, 3 more deaths 

Some stupid idiot had symptoms, got tested in Melbourne on Friday then drove somehow past the Roadblocks and travelled to my rural town, over 400 km.they stayed with relatives. they then went to just about every single shop and pub in the town and coastal village before they got their results last night. Positive. It has caused mad panic in the town. It is mostly elderly. Half the town wants to get tested and just about all the shops are closed. 

I'm going to set someone off by saying this, but this kind of behavior deserves being arrested and charged with reckless endangerment.  With damages going to all the people who have been negatively impacted by their reckless behavior. 

[Melissa in Australia]

12 minutes ago, Jean in Newcastle said:

I'm going to set someone off by saying this, but this kind of behavior deserves being arrested and charged with reckless endangerment.  With damages going to all the people who have been negatively impacted by their reckless behavior. 

I agree, plus I  think of someone dies in the area they should be charged with manslaughter 

Edited July 21, 2020 by Melissa in Australia

[Ausmumof3]

17 minutes ago, Jean in Newcastle said:

I'm going to set someone off by saying this, but this kind of behavior deserves being arrested and charged with reckless endangerment.  With damages going to all the people who have been negatively impacted by their reckless behavior. 

They are looking at jail time for illegal border crosses In SA.  I’m not sure how realistic it is given we don’t want Covid in prisons 

[Laura Corin]

I don't know if this was posted before:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-us-canada-53423637/coronavirus-us-v-other-countries-did-it-mess-up-its-reopening

 

[Melissa in Australia]

8 hours ago, Jean in Newcastle said:

I'm going to set someone off by saying this, but this kind of behavior deserves being arrested and charged with reckless endangerment.  With damages going to all the people who have been negatively impacted by their reckless behavior. 

the person was fined $1600 for leaving a lockdown area

[Guest]

12 hours ago, Jean in Newcastle said:

Am I missing a key that tells what the colors mean? 

Yes, I see now what it is supposed to show. It’s showing how tiny the amount of people who have died compared to the whole vast USA.

I think it is a terrible, misleading graphic. The space of US geography has no role in describing deaths, cases, or number of tests given. IMO, this graphic is simply meant to minimize the tragedy of 130,000 deaths by saying, “See this giant country? Only this tiny dot of people have died.” It is the opposite of humanizing the deaths. 

Just a few months ago, I sat in the dining room with my husband as he speculated that surely no more than 40,000 US people would die; 60,000 at the very most. I told him I thought it would surely be many more than that, given how it grew so exponentially in Europe. So now, here we are. More than three times the estimate the “minimizers” were postulating just a few months ago. So I guess now the tactic is to illustrate that 130,000 deaths is just a little dot on the whole vast US. 

I can’t stand it. It makes me furious. 

[73349]

3 hours ago, Melissa in Australia said:

the person was fined $1600 for leaving a lockdown area

I would be in support of a separate charge for each indoor stop (whether a home or a shop) in the clean area. Each one was a distinct threat to someone's safety.

[Tenaj]

A local mother was arrested yesterday for lying to the police about her 14yods covid status.  He was awaiting test results but she told them he had a negative result.  Three policemen had to self-quarrantine for 14 days.

[TCB]

5 minutes ago, JanOH said:

A local mother was arrested yesterday for lying to the police about her 14yods covid status.  He was awaiting test results but she told them he had a negative result.  Three policemen had to self-quarrantine for 14 days.

I think that at this point those of us having to get up close to others for our job should treat everyone as if they’re positive. Universal Covid precautions, just like we use universal precautions.

[Pen]

HCQ and Zinc - Zelenko interview—

 

i keep hoping drbeen woll get to interview him, but I found this which at least gives more than s soundbite  (Some gets political, but my reason for posting is the Medical aspect—including exact suggestions for dosages and types of zinc prophylactic, Quercitin, D, and more) 

https://youtu.be/uEntfcBiW4k

 

 

 

Meanwhile this DrBeen interview of Dr Patterson is interesting in the long term viral effects etc

 

 

Edited July 21, 2020 by Pen

[brehon]

8 hours ago, TCB said:

I think that at this point those of us having to get up close to others for our job should treat everyone as if they’re positive. Universal Covid precautions, just like we use universal precautions.

Pssst...everyone is presumed Covid positive in my little corner of the medical world. Only way to protect me and mine given that, well, people lie distressingly frequently. 

[The Governess]

1122 deaths in the US today... worst day since the beginning of June. 😞

[wathe]

4 hours ago, brehon said:

Pssst...everyone is presumed Covid positive in my little corner of the medical world. Only way to protect me and mine given that, well, people lie distressingly frequently. 

Mine too.

[Ausmumof3]

484 cases for Vic and 2 more deaths. 😞 

[Ausmumof3]

Abc:  Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews said from the 3,810 cases between July 7 to July 21, 3,400 cases did not isolate when they first felt sick and when they went to get a test.

 

"Now, that's an interesting measure in that people have felt sick, they've got symptoms, and they've kept going shopping. They've kept going to work," Mr Andrews said.

[Melissa in Australia]

484 new cases in Victoria today, a new record

2 deaths

so something  like 59% of people who get tested don’t  follow instructions To stay home until they get their results. The premier said this is the reason that the numbers are still rising

Edited July 22, 2020 by Melissa in Australia

[Ausmumof3]

5 minutes ago, Melissa in Australia said:

484 new cases in Victoria today, a new record

2 deaths

so something  like 59% of people who get tested don’t  follow instructions To stay home until they get their results. The premier said this is the reason that the numbers are still rising

Looks like we posted at the same time sorry!  Really hope things turn around soon 

[Melissa in Australia]

So do I, but I have a feeling that it is just going to get worse. They need to lock down the whole state too many people escaped Melbourne when they gave 30 hours notice that they were going to lock down Melbourne. All the country towns are full of them. Too many people not abiding by the rules,thinking they are exceptions........ sigh

[Ausmumof3]

2 cases today in my state. One came from Pakistan.  She did two weeks quarantine in vic, testing positive twice, tested negative on arrival fromVIC then tested positive on day 10.  So either she had a long incubation, caught it in quarantine in Victoria, had several false negatives or caught it in transit somewhere.  Also she masked in transit (thankfully for the other passengers).  None of those scenarios seem good.  

[Ausmumof3]

The second was from overseas as well.  She arrived end of June but one of her family members was positive so that makes  sense.  
 

I hope everyone’s been isolating appropriately.  In QLD at least 200 people weren’t self isolating when checked on.

[Ausmumof3]

https://academic.oup.com/cid/article/doi/10.1093/cid/ciaa889/5864495
 

study on social distancing in soldiers seems to show that those infected during social distancing were more likely to be asymptomatic but still developed antibodies versus those before social distancing.  I haven’t read in detail to see if they had equal testing etc across each group.  But I think this would mean viral load is really important.

[RootAnn]

The Oxford & Moderna vaccine side effects sound a lot more uncomfortable than mild. I agree with the Wired opinion piece that if there isn't honest, straight-forward coverage of the vaccine trials now, there will be more vaccine conspiracy theories later. 

https://www.wired.com/story/covid-19-vaccines-with-minor-side-effects-could-still-be-pretty-bad/

Cases are starting to tick up locally but schools are planning to start as soon as Aug 7th all in person, no masks. Summer sports have been on for a month now. Contributing to the spread? Unsure....

[TracyP]

34 minutes ago, RootAnn said:

The Oxford & Moderna vaccine side effects sound a lot more uncomfortable than mild. I agree with the Wired opinion piece that if there isn't honest, straight-forward coverage of the vaccine trials now, there will be more vaccine conspiracy theories later. 

https://www.wired.com/story/covid-19-vaccines-with-minor-side-effects-could-still-be-pretty-bad/

Thank you! I have been wondering why nobody is talking about this stuff. I thought the side effects seemed a lot more than mild; they may very well be worth it, but this needs to be acknowledged. Also the article at least briefly hit on another point that often gets overlooked. All these optimistic timelines and glowing press releases are for stock holders. It might be helpful for the media to keep that in mind before they blindly jump on the bandwagon with their reporting.

[TracyP]

3 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

https://academic.oup.com/cid/article/doi/10.1093/cid/ciaa889/5864495
 

study on social distancing in soldiers seems to show that those infected during social distancing were more likely to be asymptomatic but still developed antibodies versus those before social distancing.  I haven’t read in detail to see if they had equal testing etc across each group.  But I think this would mean viral load is really important.

They did have equal access to testing. Everbody who wanted testing was offered it. I recommend reading it if you have time at some point. It is interesting evidence on viral load and the effectiveness of social distancing, plus they discuss the severity of symptomatic cases and the prevalence of asymptomatic cases. 

[Ausmumof3]

1 hour ago, TracyP said:

They did have equal access to testing. Everbody who wanted testing was offered it. I recommend reading it if you have time at some point. It is interesting evidence on viral load and the effectiveness of social distancing, plus they discuss the severity of symptomatic cases and the prevalence of asymptomatic cases. 

Yes I read it while stirring tea.  So definitely worth making the effort to distance etc.  and I’m thinking if someone gets it at home it’s worth distancing as much as possible even if it’s inevitable you get it you should reduce the severity?

[Ausmumof3]

According to Norman Swann today 95pc of vaccines fall apart by phase 3 trials.  However there’s about 200 being worked on so hopefully a few make it through.  Us and uk already have secured most of the manufacturing capacity for the Astra Zeneca one and Singapore are going hard for more meaning here in Aus we might struggle to get it even if it’s good.

[TracyP]

3 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Yes I read it while stirring tea.  So definitely worth making the effort to distance etc.  and I’m thinking if someone gets it at home it’s worth distancing as much as possible even if it’s inevitable you get it you should reduce the severity?

I thought exactly the same. We have 8 people in a not huge house. I have figured if one gets it, we'll have to let the chips fall where they may. This made me think it is definitely worth isolating and distancing to the extent we can if someone gets sick with covid.