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sassenach

Our shelter in place just got extended through May 30 and people are DONE

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1 minute ago, EmseB said:

Same here.

The most disturbing replies are from people who say that they deserve what's coming to them.

I mean, in my mind,, the best outcome would be that people would be able to do stuff like this (as much as it's not my cup of tea) and we would see no one getting sick from it. Because if that's the case, I will feel better about kids in the neighborhood playing together, etc.

Where is it that people are saying they deserve what’s coming to them. I’ve seen several people saying that but don’t know where they are seeing it.

Just read that a place local to us usually sees 400-500 visitors on Memorial Weekend and so far they’ve had over 900.

 

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4 minutes ago, kand said:

I’ve read that the virus is very unstable around pool water and easily killed. That seems good for things like outdoor lap swimming. A pool party suggests close proximity and interaction though. And no masks, clearly.  I definitely can see The respiratory droplets flying in that situation. 

But if people are swimming and such, I feel like most of your sinuses and mucous membranes would be washed with chlorinated water at some point, even just incidentally. This makes me just want to know more:

"Hutchinson did not say how many people attended the party or subsequently tested positive for the COVID-19 virus."

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7 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Yes.  We had the couple here that went to the real estate auction and i thought cases would definitely take off but there was nothing.  
 

I read and I think shared an interesting thing yesterday.  Apparently as well as RO there is another number they look at.  So for an r0 of 2 we assume everyone infects two people but in fact with some viruses it’s more like 9 people infect no one and the last infects 20.  They think covid may be more like that.

Yeah, I saw that :-). It looks like the "average" rate of transmission is kind of not the right way to measure it, because most people will infect no people at all, but some people will infect 80. Very annoying to model. 

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Because the US hasn't done consistent contact tracing, we don't have firm numbers on spikes from certain events.  I have seen though people do their own reports of having gotten sick at various parties.  If they hadn't done that (usually because it has changed their mind on the virus and now they are warning people of the dangers) we wouldn't really know. 

Also - it is a huge crap shoot.  You could have a party with a bunch of people with no COVID to spread.  So no matter how many droplets are in the air, they won't be COVID droplets.  You could have another event with a number of COVID spreaders.  Or you could have a super spreader at one event.  Temperature checks are (as far as I've read) pretty useless for identifying who might be spreading this invisible virus.  Now I'm not a gambler but it seems to me that the odds go up when you get a group of people who don't care about the virus in any setting - because that increases the potential that they are carriers.  And if you have a group of likeminded people then you might have more than one carrier, which increases the chances of them spreading it to any one individual. 

Edited by Jean in Newcastle
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Just now, EmseB said:

But if people are swimming and such, I feel like most of your sinuses and mucous membranes would be washed with chlorinated water at some point, even just incidentally. This makes me just want to know more:

"Hutchinson did not say how many people attended the party or subsequently tested positive for the COVID-19 virus."

I don’t know more details but I know Arkansas, pretty sure the governor included, has been very anti-shutdown so I doubt he would exaggerate or over dramatize it.

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@square_25 can you link me to your calculations where you landed on 10%? I‘M having a hard time finding the post. Thanks!

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9 minutes ago, sassenach said:

@square_25 can you link me to your calculations where you landed on 10%? I‘M having a hard time finding the post. Thanks!

 

I did the calculations with the assumption that it infects 70%, not everyone, which wound up with 7%. (No, it's not a linear relationship, but when the numbers are bigger, it's pretty close to one.) If you assume everyone gets it, you get to the 10% -- that's not a realistic assumption, of course, I was just making simplifying assumptions. 

Here's the post: 

 

If anyone finds a mistake in my calculations, by the way, you should absolutely let me know. I'm just doing these off the top of my head and am very capable of screwing something up. 

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15 minutes ago, TCB said:

I don’t know more details but I know Arkansas, pretty sure the governor included, has been very anti-shutdown so I doubt he would exaggerate or over dramatize it.

I didn't mean I thought it was over dramatized...I really want to know more. Basically, I want to figure out pool risks and outdoor risks because I want to let my kids play with the neighbors outside.

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30 minutes ago, Jean in Newcastle said:

Also - it is a huge crap shoot.  You could have a party with a bunch of people with no COVID to spread.  So no matter how many droplets are in the air, they won't be COVID droplets. 

 

Exactly. All indications are that most places (including, at this point, NY!) have at most a percent or two of the population currently infected. Most parties, therefore, will not have someone with COVID, and no spread will occur. But that doesn't mean that COVID doesn't spread at parties! It merely means that if your party doesn't have a person with COVID, you won't get COVID spread, which is of course trivial. 

Edited by square_25
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Just now, EmseB said:

I didn't mean I thought it was over dramatized...I really want to know more. Basically, I want to figure out pool risks and outdoor risks because I want to let my kids play with the neighbors outside.

I'd like to know this, too. I'd love to have a playdate for DD7, who hasn't seen a friend for 2 months. I have to say, I'm really glad she's not an only child... 

Unfortunately, I think we don't have a great sense of this one yet. Especially with kids, who are very... generous with their bodily fluids ;-). 

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40 minutes ago, square_25 said:

One of the problems is that MOST things will be OK. It's not that widespread yet, and it seems to spread largely by superspreader events. So people will probably become emboldened by nothing going wrong. And that could backfire. 

This is what I keep thinking.  With this more and more seeming to be driven so much by superspreader events, I keep worrying people could be lulled into a sense of 'see, it's fine'.  Until suddenly, it very much is not.

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Just now, Matryoshka said:

This is what I keep thinking.  With this more and more seeming to be driven so much by superspreader events, I keep worrying people could be lulled into a sense of 'see, it's fine'.  Until suddenly, it very much is not.

Right, exactly

I wonder what the superspreader events in NY were, and whether we'll ever know :-/. 

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7 hours ago, Bootsie said:

This is a quandary.  What does "safe" mean?  I don't think it will ever mean 0% chance that they get this, or any other, coronavirus, or influenza, or measles, or are in a car accident, or participate in an activity in which they fall and break their hip.  How do we even begin to define safe.  And who decides this?  Are the seniors part of that discussion?  

Of course the seniors are part of the discussion. In my mom’s case, she could even leave and move somewhere else. While it wouldn’t be easy, no one is forcing her to stay in an aging in place complex. Just today she asked and was told she could have a friend come pick her up and take her to lunch at her home. But they still don’t want guests coming to her apartment.

And they’ve always been allowed to walk outside. They are just asked to keep their distance unless it is a spouse. They can also gather outside with masks and social distancing.

Edited by Frances
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2 hours ago, Where's Toto? said:

That's probably the biggest thing about all this I don't understand.   IF you are in the "open up NOW" category, why wouldn't you be pushing masks?  That is the easiest way to control spread at this point.   I realize not everyone can wear masks, blah blah blah, but if those who can, do it could make a huge difference.

(I actually know the answer to my own confusion - people don't believe the virus is real, or going to affect them, or it's all a conspiracy, blah blah blah).

And don’t forget following their fearless leader’s excellent words and example and making a political statement.

Edited by Frances
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38 minutes ago, TCB said:

Where is it that people are saying they deserve what’s coming to them. I’ve seen several people saying that but don’t know where they are seeing it.

On Facebook, commenters on the news have said things like “Good they can die”, “Darwin” and posting the fake certificate about declining treatment if admitted to hospital since they brought it on themselves, they should not get any medical treatment. 

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2 minutes ago, Arcadia said:

On Facebook, commenters on the news have said things like “Good they can die”, “Darwin” and posting the fake certificate about declining treatment if admitted to hospital since they brought it on themselves, they should not get any medical treatment. 

 

Are these people known to you, or are they strangers to you?

I don't want to say that every trollish comment on the internet is left by a paid troll or a bot, because that's simply not true and I'm certain that real people do really hold those awful opinions (or at least say those awful things for their own awful reasons)... but when particularly awful things are being said by people I don't know at all, especially if those people come from some clearly identifiable group that people might want to either cast in a bad light or pull in a bad direction, I take it with a grain of salt. I'm not sure doubting everything is the best way to stay sane, but believing everything wasn't helping.

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5 minutes ago, Arcadia said:

On Facebook, commenters on the news have said things like “Good they can die”, “Darwin” and posting the fake certificate about declining treatment if admitted to hospital since they brought it on themselves, they should not get any medical treatment. 

 

Oh, social media. Spaces without social norms or moderation are such a cesspool :-/. 

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1 hour ago, DoraBora said:

I think there are people out there who are very afraid when they see scenes like this that there will be a spike in cases, and others out there who sort-of hope there will.  (See?  See what happens?)

I wouldn't have enjoyed being in that crowd pre-Covid.  

I think those that are hoping for a spike in cases are being very illogical. Because were it to happen, it would very likely affect more than those who were in the crowd. 

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50 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

I read and I think shared an interesting thing yesterday.  Apparently as well as RO there is another number they look at.  So for an r0 of 2 we assume everyone infects two people but in fact with some viruses it’s more like 9 people infect no one and the last infects 20.  They think covid may be more like that.

COVID19 is SARS2 and I think it has similarities in spreading patterns. It’s the super spreaders that are worrisome especially since no one knows if they themselves are in that category. A frontline staff who is a super spreader would be a double whammy. 

The guy infected in Singapore and then infected people in Europe is considered a super spreader. The Korean lady who went to multiple church services is another one. If both aren’t super spreaders the community spread would be much less. 

The couple “quarantined” on the cruise ship, the husband was infected but not the wife. So somehow the wife didn’t get infected. Doctors were trying to figure out why the wife didn’t get infected, any antibodies she might have that helps.

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I had a thought about pools.  Are there lifeguards?  And are the lifeguards still mandated to do rescues?  CPR?  Rescue breathing?  In-water spinal precautions? (spinal rolls are really hands-on).  Do they wear PPE?  One can't fish an unconscious person out of a pool while wearing a mask and face shield, I shouldn't think.  It would seem to me that usual lifeguarding practice presents unacceptable occupational risk during COVID.  Does anyone here lifeguard or have a kid who lifeguards who knows?

Edited by wathe

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Extrapolating:  Bystander CPR may become no longer a thing.  First aid courses are going to have to change their content - full PPE in the AED cabinet? And training time on how to use it.

Edited by wathe
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3 hours ago, Tanaqui said:

 

Are these people known to you, or are they strangers to you?

I don't want to say that every trollish comment on the internet is left by a paid troll or a bot, because that's simply not true and I'm certain that real people do really hold those awful opinions (or at least say those awful things for their own awful reasons)... but when particularly awful things are being said by people I don't know at all, especially if those people come from some clearly identifiable group that people might want to either cast in a bad light or pull in a bad direction, I take it with a grain of salt. 

I do know some of them IRL. I have very vocal neighbors. Some are just anti-republicans and/or some are just fearful. Some are just taking it as a chance to scold people. They are stuck at home and bored. When people are stuck with social media because they aren’t able to work and their young kids are home or their kids are adults, you get people being really abusive on internet. They were abusive during the previous presidential elections too. 

I know someone well who is normally okay but whenever an epidemic is around, her anxiety is enough to make her say things like “I want my family safe and I don’t care about any suffering others have to go through.” There are lots more selfish stuff she said in person. Her husband works from home (FAANG, tech) so she doesn’t need to worry about unemployment.  

Edited by Arcadia
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7 hours ago, MissLemon said:

 

Y'all need to come to my little town in Texas. People here are no longer wearing masks.  No one is sanitizing anything anymore.  My store stopped handing out wipes at the door for carts. Half of the clerks aren't wearing masks.  The town is planning a 4th of July parade and fireworks show and "recommends" that people wear masks and socially distance, but will not be enforcing it.

If anyone questions why people aren't wearing masks, you get yelled at that if you are too scared, then maybe you should stay home, or better yet, get out of Texas. 

 

 

 

I am sorry. Can your town be called in Texas speak as "podunk" town that even locals from urban areas sneeringly and not so politely refer to as. 

I would also seek to understand why people are feeling that way and look at demographics and cases. In TX not every county has COVID as you probably know. There are like 20 plus counties last I checked not reporting a case . Is it a little town with more cows than people kinda town ?  If social distancing automatically happens because you have so much land and you can't see your neighbor and the number of cases low people might think it happens in the big cities only. Yes, I know the argument about people passing by and rural hospitals not being equipped and agree with it. But who is not wearing a mask ? A store clerk should. Not a lonely farmer harvesting in his field. Lastly, what is your temperature ? People barely wear any clothes in summer here, even us. Asking people to wear a mask when it is going to be difficult when it is heading towards repeated days in the 90s or even 100s. 

I am not an expert more a novice in stats. So here are the latest. 

https://txdshs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/3f048ced32804271aafe8b9640bcb4a7

Edited by Dreamergal
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6 hours ago, MEmama said:

Huh?

My reaction too. Probably some fear based blabbering what was forwarded into my WhatsApp 

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22 minutes ago, square_25 said:

 

Oh, social media. Spaces without social norms or moderation are such a cesspool :-/. 

Like I answered Tanaqui,those I know in real life have husbands earning $170k and up for FAANG and sound like Marie Antoinette when they speak about sheltering in place at home and having everything delivered to their doors. They “speak” on social media the same way they speak in real life. While not being politically correct, at least they aren’t hypocrites. 

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17 minutes ago, wathe said:

I had a thought about pools.  Are there lifeguards?  And are the lifeguards still mandated to do rescues?  CPR?  Rescue breathing?  In-water spinal precautions? (spinal rolls are really hands-on).  Do they wear PPE?  One can't fish an unconscious person out of a pool while wearing a mask and face shield, I shouldn't think.  It would seem to me that usual lifeguarding practice presents unacceptable occupational risk during COVID.  Does anyone here lifeguard or have a kid who lifeguards who knows?

I know a lifeguard I can ask. I hadn’t thought of this. Her pool is in an area still closed. 

8 minutes ago, Arcadia said:

I know someone well who is normally okay but whenever an epidemic is around, her anxiety is enough to make her say things like “I want my family safe and I don’t care about any suffering others have to go through.” 

Do you live somewhere that there have been multiple serious epidemics? H1N1 is the only one in recent history I can think of, but I can’t think of ways it caused suffering in people not directly affected by an infected person. 

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36 minutes ago, wathe said:

I had a thought about pools.  Are there lifeguards?  And are the lifeguards still mandated to do rescues?  CPR?  Rescue breathing?  In-water spinal precautions? (spinal rolls are really hands-on).  Do they wear PPE?  One can't fish an unconscious person out of a pool while wearing a mask and face shield, I shouldn't think.  It would seem to me that usual lifeguarding practice presents unacceptable occupational risk during COVID.  Does anyone here lifeguard or have a kid who lifeguards who knows?

This was brought up as one of the reasons that our community pool will be closed all summer, as well as that lifeguards are regularly exposed to vomit and feces in the pool (gag).

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1 hour ago, wathe said:

Extrapolating:  Bystander CPR may become no longer a thing.  First aid courses are going to have to change their content - full PPE in the AED cabinet? And training time on how to use it.

I saw a clip on the news about a beach somewhere that the lifeguards were still supposed to rescue from water and if necessary give chest compressions, but not mouth-to-mouth; for that they said they had EMTs nearby for backup.

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2 hours ago, square_25 said:

Yep, I agree -- there seems to be evidence that outdoor gatherings like this are 

a) the thing that draws the most ire 

and 

b) aren't actually a big driver of spread. 


I wonder if they draw the most ire because it's the gatherings that other people can see.   A huge gathering in your house, or even in your backyard, won't be noticed by as many people.   Lots of ire about the protests, but I kind of think that is deserved.    I'm also seeing ire about church gatherings.  Again, is it because those are the ones we hear about?  

2 hours ago, Jean in Newcastle said:

Because the US hasn't done consistent contact tracing, we don't have firm numbers on spikes from certain events.  I have seen though people do their own reports of having gotten sick at various parties.  If they hadn't done that (usually because it has changed their mind on the virus and now they are warning people of the dangers) we wouldn't really know. 

Also - it is a huge crap shoot.  You could have a party with a bunch of people with no COVID to spread.  So no matter how many droplets are in the air, they won't be COVID droplets.  You could have another event with a number of COVID spreaders.  Or you could have a super spreader at one event.  Temperature checks are (as far as I've read) pretty useless for identifying who might be spreading this invisible virus.  Now I'm not a gambler but it seems to me that the odds go up when you get a group of people who don't care about the virus in any setting - because that increases the potential that they are carriers.  And if you have a group of likeminded people then you might have more than one carrier, which increases the chances of them spreading it to any one individual. 


On this or another thread, there was some talk about places hitting ICU capacity or big spikes, yet I'm not hearing about that at all.   My conspiracy theory is that some places are working to suppress this information.   Plus, the ones we do hear about seem to be mainly people who are repentant and want to warn others.   What about people who don't care about warning others and don't want to look like idiots?   I bet in some cases they outnumber the warn-ers. 

I'm feeling somewhat cynical lately. 

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53 minutes ago, kand said:

Do you live somewhere that there have been multiple serious epidemics? H1N1 is the only one in recent history I can think of, but I can’t think of ways it caused suffering in people not directly affected by an infected person. 

She is from Asia, naturalized citizen. Her only child has asthma so she really “freaks out” even over flu epidemics. It’s parental anxiety but at a higher level. We were all in countries affected by SARS and had gone through some “lockdown” measures during that time.

Edited by Arcadia
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1 minute ago, Where's Toto? said:


I wonder if they draw the most ire because it's the gatherings that other people can see.   A huge gathering in your house, or even in your backyard, won't be noticed by as many people.   Lots of ire about the protests, but I kind of think that is deserved.    I'm also seeing ire about church gatherings.  Again, is it because those are the ones we hear about?  


On this or another thread, there was some talk about places hitting ICU capacity or big spikes, yet I'm not hearing about that at all.   My conspiracy theory is that some places are working to suppress this information.   Plus, the ones we do hear about seem to be mainly people who are repentant and want to warn others.   What about people who don't care about warning others and don't want to look like idiots?   I bet in some cases they outnumber the warn-ers. 

I'm feeling somewhat cynical lately. 

I had heard that one "It's all a hoax" influencer contracted COVID 19 and subsequently died.  It was noted on social media (which is how I heard about it from someone who had read the posts prior and after death from him and his supporters.  But then shortly after death, all those posts were deleted.  (Which I'm not necessarily condemning - I mean family is probably heartbroken.  But it does make a difference on how easily we can see the narrative.)

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1 minute ago, Where's Toto? said:

I'm also seeing ire about church gatherings.  Again, is it because those are the ones we hear about?  

I think their are several reasons we hear about the church ones. The main one to me is that religious services have been shown to be one of the particularly risky kinds of gatherings. There have been many super spreader events at religious services and it combines the danger factors of a large number of people in a contained space over a long period of time. Outdoor church services following social distancing would at this point probably be better received, as we’ve moved into an understanding that being outside seems to make spread significantly less likely, particularly if people are following distancing regulations.

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7 minutes ago, kand said:

I think their are several reasons we hear about the church ones. The main one to me is that religious services have been shown to be one of the particularly risky kinds of gatherings. There have been many super spreader events at religious services and it combines the danger factors of a large number of people in a contained space over a long period of time. Outdoor church services following social distancing would at this point probably be better received, as we’ve moved into an understanding that being outside seems to make spread significantly less likely, particularly if people are following distancing regulations.

This. The large outdoor worship service in my state received a permit on the condition they practice social distancing, even though the size was 40 times greater than what was normally allowed at the time. Then they didn’t do it. Not just sitting close, but hugging and holding hands. So yeah, you get special treatment, and then you abuse it.

Edited by Frances
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29 minutes ago, Matryoshka said:

I saw a clip on the news about a beach somewhere that the lifeguards were still supposed to rescue from water and if necessary give chest compressions, but not mouth-to-mouth; for that they said they had EMTs nearby for backup.

This is concerning.  CPR is an aerosol generating procedure.  If a patient codes in the hospital, we are NOT to start CPR  until we've properly donned PPE including n95 mask.  Asking a lifeguard to do something HCP won't/can't/aren;' allowed to do seems problematic.

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44 minutes ago, Where's Toto? said:


I wonder if they draw the most ire because it's the gatherings that other people can see.   A huge gathering in your house, or even in your backyard, won't be noticed by as many people.   Lots of ire about the protests, but I kind of think that is deserved.    I'm also seeing ire about church gatherings.  Again, is it because those are the ones we hear about?  


On this or another thread, there was some talk about places hitting ICU capacity or big spikes, yet I'm not hearing about that at all.   My conspiracy theory is that some places are working to suppress this information.   Plus, the ones we do hear about seem to be mainly people who are repentant and want to warn others.   What about people who don't care about warning others and don't want to look like idiots?   I bet in some cases they outnumber the warn-ers. 

I'm feeling somewhat cynical lately. 

I think the conspiracy theories about suppressing numbers are about on the level of pizzagate paranioa. You'd have to have every nurse, doctor, hospital admin, public health official, public health employee, anyone doing covid tests, etc., in on something like that to make it work. And you'd have to have public health officials who have been in service their whole careers then actively work to damage public health in order to...what? And all the news about furloughing hospital workers or field hospitals going unused would have to be made up. Not happening, no matter how political this gets.

Oh, and also all media and journalists would have to be in on suppression.

Edited by EmseB
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4 hours ago, DoraBora said:

People in your town are yelling at you about wearing a mask?  Where do you live?  I'm a native Texan, and though every person in our state is imperfect, it's been my experience that we're a pretty friendly bunch.  That is very sad and I'm sorry you're experiencing such hostility!

You probably know this, but masks and distancing cannot legally be enforced by any city or county in Texas, per Gov. Abbott's order.  I think that's a good thing, though you probably disagree.  I wouldn't yell at you about our differences of opinion, nor would I suggest you leave.  🙂

I’m a native Texan, and they’re friendly until they aren’t. Brenham. Looks like a friendly, ice cream loving town. Unless you’re black, and accused of lowering state testing scores.Unless you think hiding the fact that listeria is rampant in the creamery is wrong, and you’re called a communist that hates the town. Unless you’re a person fleeing Houston from hurricane Katrina and the one right after, and you see the large church in town with a big sign saying keep on driving. Because Brenham doesn’t need any more poor POC possibly stopping there for refuge and then staying to live. Or perhaps you’re the HOA in my old neighborhood, and you are freaking out about the first black family to move in, so you have extra meetings to figure out a way to stop the second family, since the first already is building their new home. Unless you’re the person who turns in the dentist who’s writing fake prescriptions for pain pills, who happens to belong to one of the original families, and the town decides to shut you up and spread lies( until they can’t).

Every place everywhere can be pretty friendly, until they aren’t.

 

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3 hours ago, DoraBora said:

Everyone in my family wears a mask in public, just in case it helps slow the spread.  I sure it hope it does, because I'm not looking forward to masking in August!

By August, you’ll be having to change both your masks and your undershorts multiple times daily due to the scorching heat and 99% humidity! Getting covered  in sweat walking to the mailbox and back is one thing I will never, ever miss about TX.

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4 minutes ago, EmseB said:

I think the conspiracy theories about suppressing numbers are about on the level of pizzagate paranioa. You'd have to have every nurse, doctor, hospital admin, public health official, public health employee, anyone doing covid tests, etc., in on something like that to make it work. And you'd have to have public health officials who have been in service their whole careers then actively work to damage public health in order to...what? And all the news about furloughing hospital workers or field hospitals going unused would have to be made up. Not happening, no matter how political this gets.

Oh, and also all media and journalists would have to be in on suppression.

I was being somewhat snarky with the conspiracy theory bit, but I do find it odd that nobody is talking about anyplace but NYC being a problem.   Only rarely is there information on the results of large gatherings and that seems to be only when someone decides to repent.    I haven't seen anything about hospitals anywhere else getting close to capacity.   I'm pretty sure the places furloughing hospital workers aren't the same places with ICU's almost at capacity, at least I hope not.    I'm also pretty sure the hospital workers in overwhelmed areas aren't out talking to the media or the ones making official reports.   They have other things to deal with.    If it's a "conspiracy"  it would be among the people being morons and not wanting to admit to being morons when it bites them in the a$$, or those more concerned with opening up so they want to make everything look fine. 

I guess we won't really know how this all went until it's over.  And even then we may not know all the answers. 

(When I say I haven't seen anything, I means I haven't seen anything except a comment or two on here).  

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22 minutes ago, EmseB said:

I think the conspiracy theories about suppressing numbers are about on the level of pizzagate paranioa. You'd have to have every nurse, doctor, hospital admin, public health official, public health employee, anyone doing covid tests, etc., in on something like that to make it work. And you'd have to have public health officials who have been in service their whole careers then actively work to damage public health in order to...what? And all the news about furloughing hospital workers or field hospitals going unused would have to be made up. Not happening, no matter how political this gets.

Oh, and also all media and journalists would have to be in on suppression.

Yes. State health dept and my city government are officially reporting relevent hospital data, but it is also available from the four or five main  hospitals (or hospital chains, since one is a huge multi-site deal) in my area. Plus, as pp said, the hospital staff talk. Impossible to suppress truth in this scenario, imo. Too many people involved.

Many hospitals here have furloughed or fired people. One is being sued for age discrimination in letting only older workers go. 

The three largest downtown hospitals and one small one have CV patients, but few of the outlying hospitals have had any at all. The county hospital nearest my mom has had zero CV and (before restrictions eased) laid off orcut hours for almost half their staff. 

Edited by ScoutTN

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4 hours ago, kand said:

As Christians we’re called to love and care for atheists as well. An attitude that it’s all fine if we and our loves ones die because we will have eternal life without taking others into account seems self-centered. Hastening the deaths of possibly millions by going for herd immunity also means all those people who don’t already know God don’t get the opportunity to do so before their premature deaths. 

 

 

I have a few problems with you trying to chastise me. First, you don't know me and you make a lot of assumptions about my stance and surely you know what assuming does? 😆

Second, I'm well aware of a Christian's need to love each other. Well aware (this is where actually knowing me might come in handy).

Third, God alone knows how this is going to play out. People can try to use collected data to project what can happen, but history has shown that those projections don't always pan out. Also, the media does an especially good job highlighting the bad and dare I saw these boards lately have followed their lead pretty well concerning covid19.

Fourth, when I spoke about my security in my future, I was only talking about myself, not my friends, family, society, etc. I cannot save anyone, Jesus does that, but I can share the gospel and leave the rest to God. I definitely need work on being more bold with my faith. Thank you for that reminder.

Fifth, have a good Sunday and remember that Jesus loves you 😊.

 

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5 hours ago, Where's Toto? said:

That's probably the biggest thing about all this I don't understand.   IF you are in the "open up NOW" category, why wouldn't you be pushing masks?  That is the easiest way to control spread at this point.   I realize not everyone can wear masks, blah blah blah, but if those who can, do it could make a huge difference.

(I actually know the answer to my own confusion - people don't believe the virus is real, or going to affect them, or it's all a conspiracy, blah blah blah).

I had dinner last night with two physicians--both who have treated COVID-19 patients.  Both have had colleagues who have been infected.  One is affiliated with a major university teaching hospital.  Neither thought masks for the general public and outside of medical settings was helpful.  In fact, they had concerns about it.  They felt that people were touching their noses and eyes more; they were concerned of mold and other build-up on the masks, and they were concerned about contamination as people took off the masks and laid them down and then put them on again.  They felt that being as healthy as possible was important in case you should become infected because your outcome was likely to be better; one way to promote good health was a lot of fresh, outdoor air, in their opinion.  Their attitude was that, if it makes people feel better, masking indoors in public places is OK, but they thought masking outdoors was actually counterproductive.   When there are some in the medical field who have studied the matter and they are of the opinion that it isn't really helpful, it is easy to see why some in the general public are not pushing masks. 

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53 minutes ago, Where's Toto? said:

I was being somewhat snarky with the conspiracy theory bit, but I do find it odd that nobody is talking about anyplace but NYC being a problem.   Only rarely is there information on the results of large gatherings and that seems to be only when someone decides to repent.    I haven't seen anything about hospitals anywhere else getting close to capacity.   I'm pretty sure the places furloughing hospital workers aren't the same places with ICU's almost at capacity, at least I hope not.    I'm also pretty sure the hospital workers in overwhelmed areas aren't out talking to the media or the ones making official reports.   They have other things to deal with.    If it's a "conspiracy"  it would be among the people being morons and not wanting to admit to being morons when it bites them in the a$$, or those more concerned with opening up so they want to make everything look fine. 

I guess we won't really know how this all went until it's over.  And even then we may not know all the answers. 

(When I say I haven't seen anything, I means I haven't seen anything except a comment or two on here).  

It's on MPR and in the local papers. But the big story that everyone's reporting on now is "open up" vs "stay in place."  The media love a two-sides controversy. It's much more exciting than inexorable pandemic math. 

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My county was advocating stay home to saves lives and some people have been staying home for 69 days (since shelter in place started). My oncologist says it’s better for me to continue my daily outdoor strolling at my neighborhood green belt. I was getting physically sicker staying home  as my medication side effects worsen. My saying it’s doctor’s advice to walk with social distancing semi-placate my closer social circle. I am sure residents in neighboring counties like Napa with much lower counts aren’t as “freak out” about people going grocery shopping or going to nurseries, Lowe’s, Home Depot for plants. We go to a neighboring county to shop for groceries and plants sometimes and the tension is much lower. 

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4 hours ago, square_25 said:

 

I don't think there's going to be very straightforward science about any of this, because how would you even study this in a controlled way? There's evidence, though. People are updating guidelines (too late, frankly) given the evidence. 

I think decreasing people's ability to implement public health measures will not increase local government ability to deal with a local outbreak. 

Current estimates are that there is a higher percentage of Texans currently infected than there are New Yorkers currently infected. People are wearing masks here not because it's currently worse here, but because they've gone through this already and it was traumatic. it would be much better if people wore masks before the trauma, not after. 

I'm glad you're wearing a mask! I hope it helps, too. Are others in your town doing so or no? 

ETA: OK, checking the numbers again, I'm probably wrong about there being more Texans than New Yorkers currently infected, although the numbers do look pretty similar and both are under a percent. Sorry!

Texas has about 29 million in population.  and New York has only about 19 million.  New York has current active cases of about 278,000; Texas is under 21,500 for current active cases.  Those numbers look very different.  New York has over 10 times as many active cases for only about 2/3 of the population of Texas.

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7 minutes ago, Bootsie said:

I had dinner last night with two physicians--both who have treated COVID-19 patients.  Both have had colleagues who have been infected.  One is affiliated with a major university teaching hospital.  Neither thought masks for the general public and outside of medical settings was helpful.  In fact, they had concerns about it.  They felt that people were touching their noses and eyes more; they were concerned of mold and other build-up on the masks, and they were concerned about contamination as people took off the masks and laid them down and then put them on again.  They felt that being as healthy as possible was important in case you should become infected because your outcome was likely to be better; one way to promote good health was a lot of fresh, outdoor air, in their opinion.  Their attitude was that, if it makes people feel better, masking indoors in public places is OK, but they thought masking outdoors was actually counterproductive.   When there are some in the medical field who have studied the matter and they are of the opinion that it isn't really helpful, it is easy to see why some in the general public are not pushing masks. 

But isn’t opening up primarily about indoor things like businesses? My liberal state is only requiring masks on public transportation and for store employees in customer facing businesses, since they are being exposed to so many people during their shifts. Stores can require masks for customers, in order to help protect their employees, but the government is not. And certainly they are not requiring masks at state parks, beaches, etc. They are asking people to maintain social distancing as much as possible, while gradually allowing larger groups, but asking, not requiring, people to wear masks when that is difficult. So primarily indoors.

While I understand the concerns you mention, I would not go so far as to say they have studied it. It sounds like they have thought about it and reached their conclusions, but not performed an actual study. It also seems like most of their concerns could be addressed with good public health campaigns. I think that’s why it likely works so well in some Asian countries. Everyone is getting the same consistent message, it’s not so location dependent as it is in the US.

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1 hour ago, Where's Toto? said:

I was being somewhat snarky with the conspiracy theory bit, but I do find it odd that nobody is talking about anyplace but NYC being a problem.   Only rarely is there information on the results of large gatherings and that seems to be only when someone decides to repent.    I haven't seen anything about hospitals anywhere else getting close to capacity.   I'm pretty sure the places furloughing hospital workers aren't the same places with ICU's almost at capacity, at least I hope not.    I'm also pretty sure the hospital workers in overwhelmed areas aren't out talking to the media or the ones making official reports.   They have other things to deal with.    If it's a "conspiracy"  it would be among the people being morons and not wanting to admit to being morons when it bites them in the a$$, or those more concerned with opening up so they want to make everything look fine. 

I guess we won't really know how this all went until it's over.  And even then we may not know all the answers. 

(When I say I haven't seen anything, I means I haven't seen anything except a comment or two on here).  

I do think both of these things can be true.  We're live near a hospital that has been at ICU/telemetry bed capacity for weeks, with ambulances diverted elsewhere.  We were also at the infusion center for the same hospital twice a week until recently, and the numbers there are down.  For my son's condition, it's common to have a choice between infusion and injectible meds.  My kid is severe enough that he needs both, but I know a number of families who have switched from infusion to injection due to concerns about covid exposure in the clinic.  Similarly, I know oncology patients who have delayed treatment for the same reason.  So, numbers in the clinic are way down.  The ER is seeing reduced numbers overall too.  More covid of course, but ambulances with heart attacks or strokes are being diverted because of the bed spaces, and people with minor conditions are doing telehealth.  And the numbers of surgery are down too.  Now, some of those people may be being repurposed.  But ICU nurses and physicians and RT's have very specialized skill sets.  There are plenty of other health care professionals in a hospital who can't just jump in and do what they do.  I don't know if they are furloughing them or not, but I can imagine that they might be.


As a side question.  I feel like I hear so often about the risks that doctors and nurses are taking, but I never hear about the respiratory therapists.  For my kid, the RT's are the ones who appear to be taking the biggest risks.  They're the ones setting up running the aerosolizing procedures. Why aren't they, and EMT's being sung as heroes in the same way?

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2 hours ago, Matryoshka said:

I saw a clip on the news about a beach somewhere that the lifeguards were still supposed to rescue from water and if necessary give chest compressions, but not mouth-to-mouth; for that they said they had EMTs nearby for backup.

New CPR guidelines call for JUST chest compressions.  This was policy well before COVID as I was recertified last fall and it was no mouth to mouth.

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13 minutes ago, Bootsie said:

Texas has about 29 million in population.  and New York has only about 19 million.  New York has current active cases of about 278,000; Texas is under 21,500 for current active cases.  Those numbers look very different.  New York has over 10 times as many active cases for only about 2/3 of the population of Texas.

New York isn't actually recording active cases properly. You can see that, because almost all the cases are listed as active. You have to look at the total hospitalization numbers to get a sense of what's happening. 

If you look at the total people hospitalized, you can see New York has 3 times as many, not 10 times. And the trajectory is down instead of up, if you look at the curve, which means the hospitalizations are lagging and the new cases are even more comparable. This could change, of course, but given that NYC is still closed, I'd be surprised for the next few weeks. 

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/u/2/d/e/2PACX-1vRwAqp96T9sYYq2-i7Tj0pvTf6XVHjDSMIKBdZHXiCGGdNC0ypEU9NbngS8mxea55JuCFuua1MUeOj5/pubhtml

Checking Worldometer, I see that Texas is now reporting fewer cases per day, but only by a bit. NY is around 1500, Texas is around 1000. 

Edited by square_25

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27 minutes ago, Heartwood said:

I have a few problems with you trying to chastise me. First, you don't know me and you make a lot of assumptions about my stance and surely you know what assuming does? 😆

My intention wasn’t to chastise. I’m sorry it came across that way. As a fellow Christian, I was sharing why I didn’t think the message that Christians aren’t worried about this because death isn’t final for them is a good/appropriate/comforting one to share with the masses. As far as assumptions, I was responding only to what you have said in this thread. You said you personally advocated going for herd immunity, so that’s what I addressed. 
 

It’s important to me for people to see that not all Christians have this attitude about protecting others from the virus. 

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27 minutes ago, Bootsie said:

I had dinner last night with two physicians--both who have treated COVID-19 patients.  Both have had colleagues who have been infected.  One is affiliated with a major university teaching hospital.  Neither thought masks for the general public and outside of medical settings was helpful.  In fact, they had concerns about it.  They felt that people were touching their noses and eyes more; they were concerned of mold and other build-up on the masks, and they were concerned about contamination as people took off the masks and laid them down and then put them on again.  They felt that being as healthy as possible was important in case you should become infected because your outcome was likely to be better; one way to promote good health was a lot of fresh, outdoor air, in their opinion.  Their attitude was that, if it makes people feel better, masking indoors in public places is OK, but they thought masking outdoors was actually counterproductive.   When there are some in the medical field who have studied the matter and they are of the opinion that it isn't really helpful, it is easy to see why some in the general public are not pushing masks. 

I think that we don’t have great evidence either way for masks but unless they have recently made a study of it I don’t necessarily think that a lot of physicians have facts and figures about masks at their fingertips. It is all very prescribed by infection control about when, where and how to wear masks and most people just get on with the protocol without thinking much about it, unless they were ID Drs maybe.

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