wuhan - coronavirus

[Arcadia]

2 minutes ago, chocolate-chip chooky said:

We actually haven't had a lockdown here (QLD) for a while now. I think the last one was in July? Any scares since then have been stamped out quickly with excellent contact tracing.

I think it's all about opening the borders, but goodness, the timing. They opened the borders yesterday, just when cases are going up in other parts of Australia.

And with omicron still being an unknown beast, it just feels too much too fast for me. It's like we've gone from super-cautious to reckless overnight. 

I meant lockdown as in national borders. Wasn’t clear. Singapore needs the tourism money (medical tourism, casinos, shopaholic tourists) and the national carrier was bleeding cash. That was why there was a big push to resume tourism. To the govt, as along as the hospitals are not embarrassingly overwhelmed, the economy is the priority. 

[Ausmumof3]

2 hours ago, Arcadia said:

I meant lockdown as in national borders. Wasn’t clear. Singapore needs the tourism money (medical tourism, casinos, shopaholic tourists) and the national carrier was bleeding cash. That was why there was a big push to resume tourism. To the govt, as along as the hospitals are not embarrassingly overwhelmed, the economy is the priority. 

Yes somewhat true here as well. Part of the reason WA can hold the line is they have a great economy with mining and resources so they’re less dependent on tourism.  Dropping mask mandates etc just seems like stupid decision making though. Our economy has done better than expected generally.

[Ausmumof3]

And I find myself looking at NZ. Tourism is a huge deal there and yet they’ve managed so far. 

[Ausmumof3]

Usual disclaimers about an unfamiliar source etc but early study from South African health insurer shows 2 doses of Pfizer are about 70% effective against hospitalisations versus unvaxed and 30% against infection. Better than the antibodies in vitro studies were estimating anyway.

 

Washington Post has an article that I think is about the study but it’s paywalled and I can’t find a link to the original study yet.  Will post if I find it.

[Ausmumof3]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-12-14/pfizer-stops-70-omicron-hospitalizations-in-south-african-study
 

Bloomberg article about the study 

 

[Acadie]

Cornell University just went to code red for Covid cases and shifted all final exams online. They said a significant number of their cases involve the Omicron variant.  

Middlebury College already sent all students home.

 

 

[Melissa Louise]

9 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Usual disclaimers about an unfamiliar source etc but early study from South African health insurer shows 2 doses of Pfizer are about 70% effective against hospitalisations versus unvaxed and 30% against infection. Better than the antibodies in vitro studies were estimating anyway.

 

Washington Post has an article that I think is about the study but it’s paywalled and I can’t find a link to the original study yet.  Will post if I find it.

Have you come across anything out of the UK re AZ? 

[Laura Corin]

15 minutes ago, Melissa Louise said:

Have you come across anything out of the UK re AZ? 

The study that looked at two doses of AZ or Pfizer said neither would significantly prevent symptomatic disease without a booster. Pfizer better than AZ but neither good. 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/10/two-jabs-give-less-protection-against-catching-omicron-than-delta-uk-data-shows

Edited December 14, 2021 by Laura Corin

[Melissa Louise]

Thanks Laura. 

[Melissa Louise]

After 8 weeks of holding steady at around 150 cases a day, we've more than doubled cases in the last three days. 1360 in NSW today. 

If that rate of increase keeps up...

[Ausmumof3]

VIC also jumped to 1405 cases today. 
 

Not good numbers coming into Christmas. Just hope the hospitalisation stays low.

[prairiewindmomma]

Can I just say I find the Aus numbers and convo fascinating?

I did a quick google....NSW's population is roughly 8.2 million. The closest US states in population would be Virginia at 8.6 million and Washington at 7.7 million.  Virginia had 6625 new covid cases yesterday (documented--actual numbers are probably much higher) and Washington had 3364. According to Johns Hopkins website, NSW had 795 new covid cases yesterday. 

I realise we have very different sets of politics and cultures between us (and my own state has been very aggressive with mask mandates and the like) but I'm just staggered at the differences in caseloads when I try to do a rough comparison. 

[Melissa Louise]

57 minutes ago, prairiewindmomma said:

Can I just say I find the Aus numbers and convo fascinating?

I did a quick google....NSW's population is roughly 8.2 million. The closest US states in population would be Virginia at 8.6 million and Washington at 7.7 million.  Virginia had 6625 new covid cases yesterday (documented--actual numbers are probably much higher) and Washington had 3364. According to Johns Hopkins website, NSW had 795 new covid cases yesterday. 

I realise we have very different sets of politics and cultures between us (and my own state has been very aggressive with mask mandates and the like) but I'm just staggered at the differences in caseloads when I try to do a rough comparison. 

Two years of hard graft, about to go down the gurgler.

[chocolate-chip chooky]

4 minutes ago, Melissa Louise said:

Two years of hard graft, about to go down the gurgler.

Yeppity, yep yep yep.

Here in QLD we've had essentially zero Covid.  7 deaths total in nearly two years.

I know no-one who has even had Covid. 

With a heavy heart I expect that this will change soon.

Can't believe our border is open. *sigh*

[prairiewindmomma]

5 minutes ago, Melissa Louise said:

Two years of hard graft, about to go down the gurgler.

I suspect we're not far behind.  Outdoor mask mandate (even for crowded situations like concerts) was dropped a month ago; lots of public pressure to drop the indoor mandate.  

[Melissa Louise]

Just now, prairiewindmomma said:

I suspect we're not far behind.  Outdoor mask mandate (even for crowded situations like concerts) was dropped a month ago; lots of public pressure to drop the indoor mandate.  

Our indoor mandate dropped today, except for public transport. 

[Melissa Louise]

1 minute ago, chocolate-chip chooky said:

Yeppity, yep yep yep.

Here in QLD we've had essentially zero Covid.  7 deaths total in nearly two years.

I know no-one who has even had Covid. 

With a heavy heart I expect that this will change soon.

Can't believe our border is open. *sigh*

It's the worst Christmas gift, right? 

[chocolate-chip chooky]

4 minutes ago, Melissa Louise said:

It's the worst Christmas gift, right? 

The govt/media want us to see the celebrations at airports, but what about all our vulnerable people, who aren't yet able to be boostered? And all the children?

I don't want Covid for Christmas. I want a safe QLD back. 

I'll try to stop whinging soon. I *know* how fortunate we've been here. I really do. 

 

[Faith-manor]

5 minutes ago, prairiewindmomma said:

I suspect we're not far behind.  Outdoor mask mandate (even for crowded situations like concerts) was dropped a month ago; lots of public pressure to drop the indoor mandate.  

My state has zero mandates, just nothing. North of us, the school district is closed due to severe covid illness among staff and students. Last count they had 14 people hospitalized, and numerous folks being treated at home if the whistleblower at the school is to be believed. This is a high school with approximately 300 students. The elementary school has 30% of the students out, mostly covid but some cases of influenza as well. The local church of roughly 200 people just had its big Christmas dinner, 350+ people in attendance, and it is reported that there were a couple of people there who had tested positive for covid, but came anyway because they didn't want to miss it. My town has only 203 people living here, 11 covid deaths. But, party like no tomorrow and no masks because that would be infringing on "freedumbs".

At this point, compassion is gone except for the children who have no choice because their parents are morons. 

[prairiewindmomma]

If I were to try to describe my state's philosophy, I would say everything falls along the red/blue divide and it's pretty dang schizophrenic. 
 

(edited out personal story)

Edited December 15, 2021 by prairiewindmomma

[Lecka]

We (my kids, my husband) have just been so sick, a long-lasting sickness (aka almost a week) and I can’t imagine blithely going out to spread this illness.  It is so unpleasant.

We aren’t doing everything absolutely right but we also aren’t out exposing everyone like it’s no big deal.  

It’s so odd to think someone would.

We are all vaxed and have flu shots, husband and I have boosters, and I just missed all my church stuff this weekend and my daughter missed her band concert last night.  
 

It seems like just normal responses to people being sick even though I think before Covid I am someone who was more on the side of going out sick than missing things while sick. I used to think more “it’s bad to miss church” and now I feel more like it’s bad to risk spreading illness at church.  Although I was concerned about elderly people at church pre-Covid and would skip things with sick kids that I thought we could go to but shouldn’t.  But I feel like I would have angst about it because I was raised more like — don’t miss church if you can possibly go.  
 

Edit:  at the same time we are just not among the more Covid-safe people out there, but we are still just not throwing caution to the wind.  
 

Edit:  and now I feel like I will just keep some disposable masks on hand indefinitely to wear if I have been sick or someone in my house has been sick — why spread this.  This is the first time I’ve been sick since Covid so now I know how I feel, lol.  I don’t want to spread this if I were to have to go out, and I can just stay home from church.  I suspect my church is going to be posting services online from now on.  
 

Edited December 15, 2021 by Lecka

[KSera]

2 hours ago, Melissa Louise said:

Our indoor mandate dropped today, except for public transport. 

It’s the dropping of mask mandates that blows my mind most of all. Why open and drop masks at the same time? Why not have mandates in place so things can be open with lower consequences? I don’t get it. The time will come to drop mask mandates. Heading into the holidays with a new, incredibly contagious variant is not it. 

1 hour ago, Lecka said:

We (my kids, my husband) have just been so sick, a long-lasting sickness (aka almost a week) and I can’t imagine blithely going out to spread this illness.  It is so unpleasant.

We aren’t doing everything absolutely right but we also aren’t out exposing everyone like it’s no big deal.  

It’s so odd to think someone would.

We are all vaxed and have flu shots, husband and I have boosters, and I just missed all my church stuff this weekend and my daughter missed her band concert last night.  
 

It seems like just normal responses to people being sick even though I think before Covid I am someone who was more on the side of going out sick than missing things while sick. I used to think more “it’s bad to miss church” and now I feel more like it’s bad to risk spreading illness at church.  Although I was concerned about elderly people at church pre-Covid and would skip things with sick kids that I thought we could go to but shouldn’t.  But I feel like I would have angst about it because I was raised more like — don’t miss church if you can possibly go.  
 

Edit:  at the same time we are just not among the more Covid-safe people out there, but we are still just not throwing caution to the wind.  
 

Edit:  and now I feel like I will just keep some disposable masks on hand indefinitely to wear if I have been sick or someone in my house has been sick — why spread this.  This is the first time I’ve been sick since Covid so now I know how I feel, lol.  I don’t want to spread this if I were to have to go out, and I can just stay home from church.  I suspect my church is going to be posting services online from now on.  
 

Did you guys test to make sure it’s not Covid? Feel better soon, whatever it is!

[lewelma]

Aucklanders were released today! So we are about to see how fast this thing can spread with 90% 12+ vaccinated, and public health measures like mask mandates, vaccine passes, testing, and isolation.  With these things in place, Auckland's r-value is below 1, and the numbers are steadily going down. So I'm very hopeful that the seeds of Covid that Auckland is spreading today will be managed throughout NZ.  To leave Auckland you must be either double vaccinated or have a negative test, and there were only 74 people testing positive today in a city of 1.5 million, so its not like there will be tons of positive people leaving. Wellington has had no covid in 18 months, and we are 94.4% double vaccinated as of today, so I'm hopeful. We are also heading into summer so more time outside and with windows open!

[Melissa Louise]

NSW Health Minister predicts we could have 25000 cases a day by end of January, based on current models. 

[lewelma]

48 minutes ago, Melissa Louise said:

NSW Health Minister predicts we could have 25000 cases a day by end of January, based on current models. 

What!?!?!? Is that based on omicron taking over? 

[Melissa Louise]

59 minutes ago, lewelma said:

What!?!?!? Is that based on omicron taking over? 

I think so, yes..

[Melissa Louise]

I went back to check that number, thinking I must have gotten it wrong, but no. 

Then there's this.

Oh my. 

 

[Ausmumof3]

4 hours ago, Melissa Louise said:

NSW Health Minister predicts we could have 25000 cases a day by end of January, based on current models. 

I actually hope based on not much that it will peak a bit earlier and lower than that. Gauteng seems to be showing early signs of peaking?  It’s a pretty drastic prediction although the total lack of mitigation is not encouraging.

[Ausmumof3]

https://kirby.unsw.edu.au/news/first-australian-lab-data-confirms-2-dose-vaccination-only-partially-protective-against-omicron
 

Another study showing antibody binding reduced to omicron in the lab. From Australia this time.

[Melissa Louise]

29 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

I actually hope based on not much that it will peak a bit earlier and lower than that. Gauteng seems to be showing early signs of peaking?  It’s a pretty drastic prediction although the total lack of mitigation is not encouraging.

UNSW modelling, I think. 

[Lecka]

(We haven’t tested, the drive-through option we did last year is no longer available and appointments for testing are 3 days out — I didn’t schedule because we didn’t know we would be sick this long.)

[Ausmumof3]

https://www.med.hku.hk/en/news/press/20211215-omicron-sars-cov-2-infection?utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter&utm_campaign=press_release

HK study found Omicron replicates about 70 x as efficiently in the bronchus but 10 x less efficiently in lung tissue.

“It is important to note that the severity of disease in humans is not determined only by virus replication but also by the host immune response to the infection, which may lead to dysregulation of the innate immune system, i.e. “cytokine storm”,’ said Dr Chan. ‘It is also noted that, by infecting many more people, a very infectious virus may cause more severe disease and death even though the virus itself may be less pathogenic. Therefore, taken together with our recent studies showing that the Omicron variant can partially escape immunity from vaccines and past infection, the overall threat from Omicron variant is likely to be very significant.”

[Ausmumof3]

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-12-16/omicron-spread-leads-to-uk-record-78000-covid-cases/100704222
 

On Wednesday the UK recorded 78,610 new cases of COVID-19, a daily record and nearly 20,000 cases more than Tuesday

 

[Acadie]

20 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-12-16/omicron-spread-leads-to-uk-record-78000-covid-cases/100704222
 

On Wednesday the UK recorded 78,610 new cases of COVID-19, a daily record and nearly 20,000 cases more than Tuesday

 

Eric Feigl-Ding tweeted that UK Omicron cases have tripled in 2 days, and Eric Topol says we can recognize the Omicron signature by the nearly vertical rise of new cases.

Graphs of cases at Cornell and in London: 

 

 

Edited December 15, 2021 by Acadie

[KSera]

I haven't been as worried about Covid 19 as I am today since probably the first few months of the pandemic when so much was unknown. The Cornell situation in particular is I think a very worrisome sign, and especially so for those of us with kids at University. Not liking it one bit, and for it to coincide with Christmas is unbelievable timing. My one hope is that maybe the school break will actually help in some way by sending kids all home for awhile and stopping spread in schools. But I don't think that's going to offset the spread from all the holiday parties and gatherings, just in time for kids to return to school.  I'm primarily concerned about health system capacity. If we were already having hospitals breaking down with Delta, this transmissability is extremely worrisome. I think many people aren't getting that a variant that is so much more transmissable, even if less virulent, is most likely to stress the medical system far more than a less transmissable variant that was more severe.

[Syllieann]

@ksera I feel like I'm the only person by me who is concerned.

Our hospitals are already taxed and today we have a near vertical spike, which I assume means omicron.  Even with a mask mandate, only half or so are wearing them and store employees aren't willing to be stabbed over enforcement.  Test appointments are getting to be pretty slim pickings and only if you're willing to drive.  I ordered 2 more boxes of binax from Sams.  I feel like the sky is falling 😞

 

[Ausmumof3]

Ouch

1,622 cases and 9 deaths in Vic

1,743 cases in NSW 0 deaths.

hospitalisations up in both states.

[Mrs Tiggywinkle]

2 hours ago, Acadie said:

Eric Feigl-Ding tweeted that UK Omicron cases have tripled in 2 days, and Eric Topol says we can recognize the Omicron signature by the nearly vertical rise of new cases.

Graphs of cases at Cornell and in London: 

 

 

I am hoping that the Cornell spread is off campus/in dorm parties and gatherings.  I’ve been on campus a couple times in the last few weeks and everyone has been masked.  
Ithaca, like every place else up here, has no or very few hospital beds available, so I am really hoping that these infections stay mild.

edit: I was just talking to a couple friends who work there.  It sounds like almost all the spread has been traced to parties and frat houses where there is no masking, almost no spread has been traced to classrooms or on-campus events where everyone is masked.

Edited December 15, 2021 by Mrs Tiggywinkle

[wathe]

1 hour ago, KSera said:

I haven't been as worried about Covid 19 as I am today since probably the first few months of the pandemic when so much was unknown. The Cornell situation in particular is I think a very worrisome sign, and especially so for those of us with kids at University. Not liking it one bit, and for it to coincide with Christmas is unbelievable timing. My one hope is that maybe the school break will actually help in some way by sending kids all home for awhile and stopping spread in schools. But I don't think that's going to offset the spread from all the holiday parties and gatherings, just in time for kids to return to school.  I'm primarily concerned about health system capacity. If we were already having hospitals breaking down with Delta, this transmissability is extremely worrisome. I think many people aren't getting that a variant that is so much more transmissable, even if less virulent, is most likely to stress the medical system far more than a less transmissable variant that was more severe.

Sense of dread here for about the last week.

Hospitals are in quietly panicking mode, I think - a.k.a. mad scramble to rearrange the deck chairs on the Titanic. 

[Melissa in Australia]

57 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Ouch

1,622 cases and 9 deaths in Vic

1,743 cases in NSW 0 deaths.

hospitalisations up in both states.

😲

 

 

nooooo….

and mask are only a suggestion in both states from today

[Corraleno]

Arizona hospitals are getting slammed, with many already over capacity — and the wave is not expected to peak until mid-January.

https://apnews.com/article/coronavirus-pandemic-health-arizona-c1b3db28b716c388035ac1e344243717

Banner Health "has 18 hospitals in Arizona. As of Tuesday, 10 of them were running above 100% of their ICU staffed bed capacity. Five of them were operating above 100% staffed in-patient bed capacity, according to spokesman Corey Schubert. “We are more stretched now than we have been since the start of the pandemic,” Bessel told reporters. “ICUs are where we are experiencing the most significant strain on our resources.”

Banner has had to postpone medical procedures, new patient visits, and non-urgent appointments because of the intensive care unit needs. Hospital professionals are prioritizing medically necessary surgeries like mastectomies and gall bladder removals. The hospital system — with assistance from over 2,600 travel nurses who travel around the country filling staffing needs — is trying to counter a hemorrhaging of Banner staff nurses who retired, left the field or took non-bedside jobs.

Banner’s modeling predicts that its number of Arizona hospital bed occupancies will escalate and peak in mid-January, Bessel added.

Nearly 90% of Banner patients undergoing treatment for COVID-19 are unvaccinated. Some days, the percentage of unvaccinated COVID-19 patients in intensive care has been 100%. Bessel reiterated that vaccinations were the key to reducing the burden on health care workers."

[Melissa Louise]

I feel kinda scared. It won't make me change much, but I do feel worried. 

[Dmmetler]

1 hour ago, Mrs Tiggywinkle said:

I am hoping that the Cornell spread is off campus/in dorm parties and gatherings.  I’ve been on campus a couple times in the last few weeks and everyone has been masked.  
Ithaca, like every place else up here, has no or very few hospital beds available, so I am really hoping that these infections stay mild.

edit: I was just talking to a couple friends who work there.  It sounds like almost all the spread has been traced to parties and frat houses where there is no masking, almost no spread has been traced to classrooms or on-campus events where everyone is masked.

My teen's college has announced that in addition to requiring a booster before treturn to campus (unless you are not eligible-fortunately, the FDA acted so that L was!) You need to submit a PCR done within 3 days of your return to campus and they will be doing RAT's at check in. Apparently they didn't see any signifivant increase in their last test round done before students left, so are breathing a sigh of relief there, and want to make sure no one brings it back in January. 

 

 

[KSera]

1 minute ago, Dmmetler said:

My teen's college has announced that in addition to requiring a booster before treturn to campus (unless you are not eligible-fortunately, the FDA acted so that L was!) You need to submit a PCR done within 3 days of your return to campus and they will be doing RAT's at check in. Apparently they didn't see any signifivant increase in their last test round done before students left, so are breathing a sigh of relief there, and want to make sure no one brings it back in January. 

 

 

This sounds smart. I hope my dcs' schools will do the same. That seems like a high burden all at once on labs though if all colleges do that.

[chocolate-chip chooky]

1 hour ago, wathe said:

Sense of dread here for about the last week.

Hospitals are in quietly panicking mode, I think - a.k.a. mad scramble to rearrange the deck chairs on the Titanic. 

I haven't felt this anxious since around March 2020, quite honestly.

[chocolate-chip chooky]

34 minutes ago, Melissa in Australia said:

😲

 

 

nooooo….

and mask are only a suggestion in both states from today

What in the world is going on?

I just can't wrap my head around the backflip on policy and response here in Australia.

[Melissa Louise]

Just now, chocolate-chip chooky said:

What in the world is going on?

I just can't wrap my head around the backflip on policy and response here in Australia.

It must be a federal election equation - more votes in 'freedom'.

With Dom just being a complete @#$, and everyone else just falling over in fatigue from being more hardline. 

[Melissa in Australia]

Just now, chocolate-chip chooky said:

What in the world is going on?

I just can't wrap my head around the backflip on policy and response here in Australia.

I am not into conspiracy theories at all but I can see why some think it is deliberate.

I think the government is either incredibly stupid or just wanting to keep their positions

[Arcadia]

2 minutes ago, chocolate-chip chooky said:

What in the world is going on?

I just can't wrap my head around the backflip on policy and response here in Australia.

 

Just now, Melissa Louise said:

It must be a federal election equation - more votes in 'freedom'.

With Dom just being a complete @#$, and everyone else just falling over in fatigue from being more hardline. 

Or your local govt may be taking similar stance to UK, that omicron cases are already unavoidable.

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/11-countries-removed-from-the-uks-red-list

”As Omicron cases rise in the UK and in countries around the world, the travel red list is less effective in slowing the incursion of the variant from abroad and these temporary measures are no longer proportionate. The red list has served its purpose in delaying the spread of Omicron into the UK to buy time for the government to learn more about this variant and prepare for its potential impact.”

[Ausmumof3]

Definitely feeling like parallel realities here with friends making contact wanting to get together over the break.  I’m saying yes to stuff that feels smaller and controllable but opted out on a kids bday party for DS yesterday.  I saw my parents yesterday.