wuhan - coronavirus

[Melissa Louise]

4 minutes ago, lewelma said:

Is it just that the numbers had gotten too big for them to still contact trace?. The Auckland numbers are going down because so many people are vaccinated and they are still contact tracing and requiring by law for people to self isolate (and are being checked on every day by phone). It took 4 weeks to cut the numbers in half. 

No, not really.

Not in NSW, at least. 

Maybe in VIC.

Personally, I think politicians just got fed up with taking lockdown heat. They are betting that we get used to daily deaths (we have). 

 

[bookbard]

I think the idea was lockdown until vaccination was extensive. Unfortunately they didn't factor kids into that at all. The majority of cases since lockdown ended has been in kids. But as they mostly don't get really sick, the govt doesn't care particularly. If vaccination was 100% effective I could see their point of view. But kids are spreading it to vaccinated adults.

Anyway, I am hoping by winter next year that most people have 3 vaccine shots and that includes kids. Man I wish they'd just said 3 from the start and not called them boosters. 

 

 

 

[Ausmumof3]

43 minutes ago, bookbard said:

I think the idea was lockdown until vaccination was extensive. Unfortunately they didn't factor kids into that at all. The majority of cases since lockdown ended has been in kids. But as they mostly don't get really sick, the govt doesn't care particularly. If vaccination was 100% effective I could see their point of view. But kids are spreading it to vaccinated adults.

Anyway, I am hoping by winter next year that most people have 3 vaccine shots and that includes kids. Man I wish they'd just said 3 from the start and not called them boosters. 

 

 

 

Pfizer CEO was saying four most recently. I’m grateful for the shots but really not looking forward to three monthly vaccines for life.  I hope they get something more durable soon.

[bookbard]

5 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Pfizer CEO was saying four most recently.

Man - I just can't see that enough people will happily get vaccinated 4 times a year, I really can't, esp men who haven't been to a Dr in years! I guess best case scenario is that omicron does turn out to be super mild and takes over. 

[Ausmumof3]

3 minutes ago, bookbard said:

Man - I just can't see that enough people will happily get vaccinated 4 times a year, I really can't, esp men who haven't been to a Dr in years! I guess best case scenario is that omicron does turn out to be super mild and takes over. 

That would be nice! I guess maybe once more of the world is vaxed the mutation rate slows down?

[Melissa Louise]

They can jab me weekly, I don't care. But I thought it was looking more like a 3 shot initial dose, then yearly? 

I guess no-one really knows yet. 

If it's 3 doses for kids, with an 8 week and then a six month spacing, none of the under 12's will be fully vaxed until Term 3. 

Through force of will, everyone around me is getting boosters asap. It's driving me crazy though, I can't get anyone to upgrade their masks. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[lewelma]

Or you could be like this guy and get 10 covid vaccines in one day:

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/127245863/covid19-man-receives-up-to-10-vaccines-in-one-day

apparently he was doing it for money and impersonating people so their health record would show they were vaccinated. I'm sorry he needed the money, and I'm sorry people were taking advantage of his need to cheat the system.

Edited December 11, 2021 by lewelma

[KSera]

1 hour ago, bookbard said:

Man - I just can't see that enough people will happily get vaccinated 4 times a year, I really can't, esp men who haven't been to a Dr in years! I guess best case scenario is that omicron does turn out to be super mild and takes over. 

I think the thought is the more widely spaced 3rd dose will give more durable immunity, not that we would need 3-4 every year. Like several other multi shot series (Hep B, for example, which has pretty much the same administration schedule for adults--0 months, 1 months, 6 months). The 4th shot mentioned was due to the new variant. I could see, like Melissa said, that it be a three shot initial series and then yearly or so for variants.

34 minutes ago, Melissa Louise said:

 It's driving me crazy though, I can't get anyone to upgrade their masks. 
 

Right?! It seems so many people really haven't gotten the message about what kind of masks are going to help the most. I know people who are trying really hard to avoid getting it and are otherwise being really cautious--and always, always mask--but their masks are much less effective than they could be, and I think they would change if they got it. Messaging to the public has not been good on that front.

[Melissa Louise]

16 minutes ago, KSera said:

I think the thought is the more widely spaced 3rd dose will give more durable immunity, not that we would need 3-4 every year. Like several other multi shot series (Hep B, for example, which has pretty much the same administration schedule for adults--0 months, 1 months, 6 months). The 4th shot mentioned was due to the new variant. I could see, like Melissa said, that it be a three shot initial series and then yearly or so for variants.

Right?! It seems so many people really haven't gotten the message about what kind of masks are going to help the most. I know people who are trying really hard to avoid getting it and are otherwise being really cautious--and always, always mask--but their masks are much less effective than they could be, and I think they would change if they got it. Messaging to the public has not been good on that front.

So frustrating. I've told all my vulnerable people to ditch cloth masks only and switch to double masking with surgical/cloth, or knot and tuck the surgical or get P2. I'm not even suggesting anything hewvy duty, just a step up from cloth. 

And yet...they continue to wear cloth. Or no mask! These are pro vax people. 

 

[Melissa in Australia]

5 hours ago, lewelma said:

How did Australia go from elimination to open-it-all-up-and-screw-any-precautions? Are new people in charge? What is the politics behind such a radical change?

they decided that if everyone was vaccinated that there will be no more problems. so they went for rapid vaccination. very swiftly Vic and NSW reached over 90 % double dosed from 12 up. It is still moving upwards, Vic at just under 93% and NSW just under 94% double dosed. the very few who didn't in Vic are now in lockout  (including not  able to wait in medical waiting rooms or use some public toilets if they are in government buildings, only allowed to go into food shops and pharmacies, not allowed to work at all. )it is very actively enforced, covid marshals and bouncers in front of shops checking everybody's vax status. . And everything is back to normal for the rest. sporting arenas are allowed close to full capacity . masks worn in shops and on public transport.

 

Apparently the Vic gov has decided that the real figures to watch is hospitalizations. deaths don't matter if they are over 90 it seems. most Victorians head is still spinning from the swift change of  direction. 

amazingly the numbers have stayed roughly the same since opening up,  somewhere between 1000 to 1400 each day

Edited December 11, 2021 by Melissa in Australia

[Melissa in Australia]

I am still using cloth masks. I made them myself, close fitting 3 layers. I just cannot bring myself to use disposable. I am trying to eliminate plastic use including all synthetic fibers . 

Edited December 11, 2021 by Melissa in Australia

[Ausmumof3]

The Age is reporting that boosters are being brought forward to five months? Anyone able to verify. Would be good news here.

[Ausmumof3]

32 minutes ago, Melissa in Australia said:

I am still using cloth masks. I med them myself, close fitting 3 layers. I just cannot bring myself to use disposable. I am trying to eliminate plastic use including all synthetic fibers . 

My wool ones are significantly harder to breathe through than my N95s.  Not sure if that means anything in terms of filtration. I have the same concerns but now using N95s for indoor stuff. But I’m still on the first one.

having said that we bought plastic water bottles today 😞 because somehow everyone forgot theirs except oldest DS.

[Ausmumof3]

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-12-11/booster-access-brought-forward-to-slow-spread-of-omicron-variant/100693484
 

looks like that’s a yes on five month boosters. That will alleviate one half of my worries!

[Happy2BaMom]

15 hours ago, kbutton said:

Yep! It's maddening. Sometimes it's better--it really depends on the store and the crowd. Older crowds are more likely to be masked. But SW Ohio is notoriously oblivious if that's where you were (there isn't a lot in SE Ohio that would suggest "conference" to me).

Cincinnati. 
 

The conference was related to health (healthy people, healthy agriculture, healthy planet). I just assumed that the crowd would be….fairly amenable to masking. Hoo boy, um……NO. 

[KSera]

6 hours ago, Melissa Louise said:

So frustrating. I've told all my vulnerable people to ditch cloth masks only and switch to double masking with surgical/cloth, or knot and tuck the surgical or get P2. I'm not even suggesting anything hewvy duty, just a step up from cloth. 

And yet...they continue to wear cloth. Or no mask! These are pro vax people. 

 

I think many are under the mistaken idea that a better mask will be less comfortable or harder to breathe in. My N95s are not as comfortable, though not any harder to breathe in than my own cloth masks (I over engineered mine though and I think they have greater air resistance than is ideal. And mine have head ties rather than ear loops, so I actually wore them tighter than my elastic N95 head straps). The KF94s that are my usual masks these days are much better to wear than my cloth it turns out. No muffled voice at all is the best part to me. And very breathable. 

4 hours ago, Melissa in Australia said:

I am still using cloth masks. I made them myself, close fitting 3 layers. I just cannot bring myself to use disposable. I am trying to eliminate plastic use including all synthetic fibers . 

I get it on the disposable, but I don’t dispose of mine unless/until damaged, and that’s how most other people I know using them do it. I think surgical mask wearers do tend to throw theirs away. We use very little in our life that is disposable (to the point we use bidet and cloth tp), but as someone else said, being hospitalized generates WAY more waste than wearing a disposable mask does. 

[KSera]

7 hours ago, Melissa Louise said:

So frustrating. I've told all my vulnerable people to ditch cloth masks only and switch to double masking with surgical/cloth, or knot and tuck the surgical or get P2. I'm not even suggesting anything hewvy duty, just a step up from cloth. 

And yet...they continue to wear cloth. Or no mask! These are pro vax people. 

 

This was timely. My favorite Mask Nerd just did a good interview on this very topic:

https://www.cbsnews.com/live/video/20211211004103-mask-guidelines-and-recommendations-amid-the-omicron-strain/

[Acadie]

9 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Pfizer CEO was saying four most recently. I’m grateful for the shots but really not looking forward to three monthly vaccines for life.  I hope they get something more durable soon.

I've also seen calls by public health experts on Twitter for development of pan-coronavirus vaccines. Nothing specifically in the pipeline yet, but I do think there's preliminary research into different kinds of vaccines that may be a more long term solution. 

[BeachGal]

Emergex, another potentially promising next gen vaccine is about to begin phase 1 trials. It’s similar to Gritstone’s vaccine in that it should protect against past and potentially future variants. Also, should be longer lasting and may eliminate the need for seasonal boosters.

The vaccine is delivered via micro needles just under the skin. (A patch?) Stable at room temp for three months.

Supposedly, there is a similar, third vaccine in the works but I haven’t been able to find anything about it.

https://emergexvaccines.com/emergex-confirms-its-next-generation-t-cell-priming-covid-19-vaccine-candidate-has-the-potential-to-be-effective-against-all-currently-sequenced-viral-mutations/

Emergex’s vaccines aim to prime naive CD8+ T-Cells to generate virus specific CTLs (CD8+ T-cells/Cytotoxic T Lymphocytes) to kill viral infected cells, preventing viral replication and disease and reducing symptoms and the transmissibility between infected and non-infected individuals. As a result, Emergex’s T-Cell priming vaccines have the potential to be more effective in targeting rapidly mutating viruses such as SARS-CoV-2 and eliminate the need for seasonal booster vaccines in comparison to current vaccine technologies, which primarily rely on an antibody immune response. In addition, Emergex’s vaccine is raised against antigens that are highly conserved so may provide cross reactive immunity to SARS-CoV-1 infection and all SARS-CoV-2 variants and strains of the virus, offering broad immune protection from two pandemic viruses in one vaccine.

[Longtime Lurker]

14 hours ago, elroisees said:

I just found out that my county is 95% fully vaxed for all residents over age 5. Wow!!!! I'm so happy to see this! 

The cdc website now says people who aren't vaxed should mask at our current level of transmission. I've still been doing it, but I wonder if people think it's because I'm not vaccinated! 😅

I wondered last May if people would think that when I continued to mask after vaccination. However, in my area at least, the masked people are a subset of the vaccinated people. 

[BeachGal]

6 minutes ago, Acadie said:

I've also seen calls by public health experts on Twitter for development of pan-coronavirus vaccines. Nothing specifically in the pipeline yet, but I do think there's preliminary research into different kinds of vaccines that may be a more long term solution. 

?? There are at least two. Gritstone which began phase 1 about 80 days ago and is now starting the second half of phase 1. Emergex is another and will begin phase 1 in January. Supposedly, there’s a third.

It’s hard to find information about any of them so maybe they’re not aware of these.

[Faith-manor]

23 hours ago, Corraleno said:

No, unfortunately, because the deaths are explained away as either deaths from vaccine complications or deaths caused by hospitals purposely killing people with remdesivir and ventilators to "get more money from the government." Even when anti-vaxxers lose close friends and family that they know for certain were diagnosed with covid, the explanation is that the hospital killed them by refusing to properly treat them with ivermectin and IV vitamins and forcing them to accept dangerous drugs and mechanical ventilation. It's a closed loop, there is no way to refute these beliefs.

Yup. We see this all the time. They will twist themselves into pretzels in order to maintain delusions. How they think tens of millions of doctors and nurses the world over are magically able to maintain such lies and NO ONE has made a book deal to expose it all, I will never know. Someone is going to squeal. Not to mention the deliberate impugning of the honor of this massive score of people. 

The hospital that normally accepts patients from all the stitch and ditch/bandaid station little hospitals in my tri-county area, had to be sent 44 army/fed healthcare workers because they were falling apart at the seams under the weight of Michigan's fourth wave. There will be a fifth wave of omicron, I am convinced of it. I don't know if anything resembling a healthcare system will survive. I know three docs and five nurses planning on quitting when this subsides before the omicron hits. But they also admit that there may not even be a break. The fourth wave which is still delta may just ooze into an omicron wave in which case they have to decide when in that mess to walk away. They are probably representative of a lot of healthcare workers. The sons of b*itches that keep perpetuating this crap and refuse to vax, refuse to mask, refuse to socially distance and stop partying will bring the country to its knees and then b*tch and moan about how their lives have been upended, and they got hurt and there was no one to care for them or had a heart attack and no ambulance came. They are so damn narcissistic they will never admit any wrong doing.

And here is the worst, it might be that in order to save the country from ruin, the healthcare system will have to be allowed to reject caring for the unvaxed who do not have medical exemptions. This is not what I want! This is NOT what a healthy functioning country should do. But we aren't in the ballpark of healthy functioning. We are the very brink of failed state and when that happens, horrific, tough choices have to be made. It could be that allowing the unvaxed, covid conspiracy, ivermectin peddling folks will find themselves sacrificed for the greater good. I don't even like to think what condition the national psyche will be in after that or if anything that resembles democracy will be left. Hopefully, just maybe, Merck's new pill will be the way out of a horrific fourth wave of collapsing hospitals. Of course, that assumes that the people who refuse the vax and other treatments because of their delusions will actually take the pill. I don't know why they bother seeking hospitalization. I mean they consider HCW's to be lying, evil bastards so it seems truly insane to seek out their help anyway!

Meanwhile, my almost six year old grandson is on the couch snuggled with his daddy being treated to popsicles and a little of his favorite ice cream as he nurses a headache and mild fever from his covid vaccine yesterday. He was so stoic for his shot, and so excited to get it. It is pretty bad when little ones are more mature than so many adults.

[Melissa in Australia]

I know it is only 2 weeks in, but so far promising news from South Africa 

https://www.9news.com.au/world/south-african-doctors-see-signs-omicron-is-milder-than-delta/88ea6803-1179-4d2c-804a-cd45cb745605

[wathe]

Omicron in Scotland - Evidence Paper

And in Ontario (from OC19SAT dashboard😞

The slope of the omicron curve is near-vertical.

[Pen]

23 hours ago, Melissa in Australia said:

Pen could you  please post a link to the Pfizer documents released under freedom of info.

I have been looking for them for a couple of days and can now only find Au things  referring to the release.

 I would like to read them and see if some of the things I have heard that the documents list are there

thank you

A lot as I am sure you know has not been released with Pfizer asking for 55 years or whatever it was (a very long time!) before they disclose to public 

I have had links to some that was disclosed - particularly where it showed deaths in Pfizer own studies, and had saved that- however can’t put my fingers on it right now.  I’ll try to remember to post it here and to tag you when I come to it.
 

 I think I got it via I-CAN (related to HighWire of Del Bigtree) if you want to look there.

 

meNwhile this might be of interest:

 

Study in vivo in mice

 

bold italic added

 

“ Conclusions/Significance

Systemic autoimmunity appears to be the inevitable consequence of over-stimulating the host's immune ‘system’ by repeated immunization with antigen, to the levels that surpass system's self-organized criticality.

“

https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0008382#pone.0008382.s002

[Pen]

@Melissa in Australia

 

The parts of Pfizer report obtained by lawyers under freedom of information act begins as below. Having the title and some more wording may help you to locate it. The form I have is not a linkable form. 

 

5.3.6 CUMULATIVE ANALYSIS OF POST-AUTHORIZATION ADVERSE EVENT REPORTS OF PF-07302048 (BNT162B2) RECEIVED THROUGH 28-FEB-2021
 Report Prepared by: Worldwide Safety Pfizer
The information contained in this document is proprietary and confidential. Any disclosure, reproduction, distribution, or other dissemination of this information outside of Pfizer, its Affiliates, its Licensees, or Regulatory Agencies is strictly prohibited. Except as may be otherwise agreed to in writing, by accepting or reviewing these materials, you agree to hold such information in confidence and not to disclose it to others (except where required by applicable law), nor to use it for unauthorized purposes.

[Ausmumof3]

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israeli-study-finds-pfizer-covid-19-booster-protects-against-omicron-2021-12-11/
 

Israeli study finds booster shot is partly protective against omicron. 

[Laura Corin]

Another Omicron party story. 18 people, a mix of double vaxed and boosted, take lateral flow tests that are negative then attend a party. One of the attendees - a teacher - subsequently comes down with probable Omicron.  In total, 16 out of the 18 were infected. Mild symptoms. Minute 9 -

News story here

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/0daa91c0-5a9e-11ec-985a-09e80e25697e?shareToken=19cb8ee4ec372ff06ccb335a0fc5849f

Edited December 11, 2021 by Laura Corin

[Corraleno]

42 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israeli-study-finds-pfizer-covid-19-booster-protects-against-omicron-2021-12-11/
 

Israeli study finds booster shot is partly protective against omicron. 

Well that's a mixed bag. I guess it's good news that boosters provide partial protection, but bummer that they provide far less protection against omicron than delta. And the news that 2 shots 5-6 months ago, without a booster, provided zero protection against omicron is seriously depressing. That does not bode well for the coming holidays considering how incredibly contagious omicron is. 

Edited December 11, 2021 by Corraleno

[Corraleno]

In case anyone is concerned about the study linked above with the claim that "autoimmunity is the inevitable consequence" of "repeated immunization," that study, from 2009, showed that if you inject mice 8 times in a row with Staph B, or 12 times in a row with egg albumin, 5 days apart, they can develop autoimmune issues.

So please avoid repeatedly injecting yourself with staphylococcus enterotoxin B or egg whites. Just get the SARS2 vaccine instead.

 

[Laura Corin]

18 minutes ago, Corraleno said:

Well that's a mixed bag. I guess it's good news that boosters provide partial protection, but bummer that they provide far less protection against omicron than delta. And the news that 2 shots 5-6 months ago, without a booster, provided zero protection against omicron is seriously depressing. That does not bode well for the coming holidays considering how incredibly contagious omicron is. 

That parallels the first real-world data from England.

BBC News - Covid: Omicron data prompts fresh call to get booster jab
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-59619224

[Ausmumof3]

58 minutes ago, Corraleno said:

Well that's a mixed bag. I guess it's good news that boosters provide partial protection, but bummer that they provide far less protection against omicron than delta. And the news that 2 shots 5-6 months ago, without a booster, provided zero protection against omicron is seriously depressing. That does not bode well for the coming holidays considering how incredibly contagious omicron is. 

Particularly for Australia where we have only just started boosters and our most vulnerable are six months plus. And we are in full learn to live with the virus (and die with the virus 😬) mode apparently. 

[kbutton]

10 hours ago, Happy2BaMom said:

Cincinnati. 
 

The conference was related to health (healthy people, healthy agriculture, healthy planet). I just assumed that the crowd would be….fairly amenable to masking. Hoo boy, um……NO. 

There are a lot of people in the area who follow "health influencer" types online. Unless it's frank healthcare workers (and around here, chiropractors, etc. tend to come with a HEAVY dose of woo, including my very competent one), it's likely to be populated by anti-vax types. There are a few in mainstream healthcare as well--I know a couple of nurses agitating for all vaccine laws in our state to be repealed, not just Covid, and they want HCW to be exempt from all vaccines also. It boggles the mind. It's also not that uncommon for a subset of HCW to not mask in their personal life now that they are vaccinated. I don't know if they just think they are invincible if they're still around, or if they are just okay with higher personal risk, but it happens. Most are good at work, and the older HCWs are particularly compliant and frustrated with the general public. 

4 hours ago, Faith-manor said:

And here is the worst, it might be that in order to save the country from ruin, the healthcare system will have to be allowed to reject caring for the unvaxed who do not have medical exemptions. This is not what I want! This is NOT what a healthy functioning country should do. But we aren't in the ballpark of healthy functioning. We are the very brink of failed state and when that happens, horrific, tough choices have to be made.

I don't think it's going to be at the brink in all places all at the same time, but I hear your concern. The frustrating part that I go round and round with in my mind is that the anti-vax, authoritarian, freedumb crowd has basically been agitating that this is how it will go in a self-fulfilling prophecy kind of way. If what you are predicting happens, they will take it as not their fault but as persecution, and I think that is going to be more destructive than Covid--it will likely be violent on a lot of local levels. 

I know people that I would've formerly considered reasonable who are convinced that putting on a mask and getting a vaccine is going to lead directly to a loss of freedom to homeschool (or fill in the blank with something else). Many people truly think that we're prolonging the pandemic with precautions or outright inventing it. There is just no reasoning with people.

[Syllieann]

34 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Particularly for Australia where we have only just started boosters and our most vulnerable are six months plus. And we are in full learn to live with the virus (and die with the virus 😬) mode apparently. 

I saw one tiny study 3 months post booster and it was way back under 50%.  I hope every one goes to get a booster, but that just isn't going to be enough.  We need to get hard core on masks, ventilation, and testing or people will be dying in the parking lot waiting to get into the er.  There isn't 100 days to develop a booster before things get serious.  I honestly can't believe there isn't more alarm here in the states.

[Melissa Louise]

1 minute ago, Syllieann said:

I saw one tiny study 3 months post booster and it was way back under 50%.  I hope every one goes to get a booster, but that just isn't going to be enough.  We need to get hard core on masks, ventilation, and testing or people will be dying in the parking lot waiting to get into the er.  There isn't 100 days to develop a booster before things get serious.  I honestly can't believe there isn't more alarm here in the states.

Ventilation! 

Omg I don't understand why we are not way more focused on ventilation. 

[BeachGal]

Pfizer will submit full data on its anti-viral pill Paxlovid to the FDA soon if they haven't already and as soon as the FDA gives it the green light, as is expected, Paxlovid will be available as a treatment. Everything I've read suggests omicron is not going to be a problem.

The pill would be available to the public soon after its approved by the FDA, Bourla said. “We have already shipped product into the U.S., so product will be available this month if it’s approved,” the CEO told CNBC.

President Joe Biden said last month the U.S. has bought 10 million courses of Paxlovid and delivery will start at the end of the year.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/12/08/pfizer-will-submit-full-data-on-covid-treatment-pill-to-the-fda-in-a-few-days-ceo-says.html

[Ausmumof3]

First case of omicron hospitalised in NSW. Maybe that will help to shake up the narrative being pushed that omicron is just going to be like a cold. 
 

I have some not very nice feelings about a number of political people right now.  I don’t like being outright lied to in a way that implies we are too dumb to see through it.

[Not_a_Number]

14 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

First case of omicron hospitalised in NSW. Maybe that will help to shake up the narrative being pushed that omicron is just going to be like a cold. 
 

I have some not very nice feelings about a number of political people right now.  I don’t like being outright lied to in a way that implies we are too dumb to see through it.

I'm glad it's shaking up the narrative and all, but I was personally really hoping it'd be mild 😛 . I mean, it still might be... at least maybe it's a bit milder?? I'm really hoping there's some bright side here, because it's obviously SO transmissible 😕 . 

[Ausmumof3]

3 minutes ago, Not_a_Number said:

I'm glad it's shaking up the narrative and all, but I was personally really hoping it'd be mild 😛 . I mean, it still might be... at least maybe it's a bit milder?? I'm really hoping there's some bright side here, because it's obviously SO transmissible 😕 . 

I do think it’s quite likely to be more mild.  I don’t think it’s going to be mild enough to justify the level of complete government inaction we’re seeing on it, iykwim. The logical thing would be to try get a pause on it for two to three weeks to see what the data does and then if it’s no biggie go back to the roadmap. Not act on very early insubstantial evidence when so many epidemiologists are saying it’s too soon to tell.

Meanwhile our treasurer is saying there’s no evidence for immune escape from vaccines.  Yes there is - in fact more evidence for that than that it’s going to be mild. I think we’ve been so desperate to open up again that we can’t switch gears.

 

Edited December 12, 2021 by Ausmumof3

[Not_a_Number]

Just now, Ausmumof3 said:

I do think it’s quite likely to be more mild.  I don’t think it’s going to be mild enough to justify the level of complete government inaction we’re seeing on it, iykwim. The logical thing would be to try get a pause on it for two to three weeks to see what the data does and then if it’s no biggie go back to the roadmap. Not act on very early insubstantial evidence when so many epidemiologists are saying it’s too soon to tell.

Meanwhile our treasurer is saying there’s no evidence for immune escape from vaccines.  Yes there is - in fact more evidence for that than that it’s going to be mild. I think we’ve been so desperate to open up again that we can’t switch gears.

Ugh. Yeah, that does NOT sound evidence-based at all!! 

[Ausmumof3]

This on weekly excess death stats from South Africa is not encouraging either. Although there may well be another explanation for the increase.

[Ausmumof3]

5 minutes ago, Not_a_Number said:

Ugh. Yeah, that does NOT sound evidence-based at all!! 

Nope. To my mind we need to push boosters forward urgently, vaccinate 5-11 years olds urgently, ventilate schools while we’re on summer break so we’ve got a start.  My preference would be to go back to fourteen day quarantine for another two to four weeks till we get solid evidence about hospitalisation but I’d settle for the first three.

[Not_a_Number]

4 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Nope. To my mind we need to push boosters forward urgently, vaccinate 5-11 years olds urgently, ventilate schools while we’re on summer break so we’ve got a start.  My preference would be to go back to fourteen day quarantine for another two to four weeks till we get solid evidence about hospitalisation but I’d settle for the first three.

Those all sound good. 

I do wish I'd stop feeling that people on this forum have more sense than the people making decisions, though, lol. 

[KSera]

5 hours ago, Laura Corin said:

Another Omicron party story. 18 people, a mix of double vaxed and boosted, take lateral flow tests that are negative then attend a party. One of the attendees - a teacher - subsequently comes down with probable Omicron.  In total, 16 out of the 18 were infected. Mild symptoms.

I've been trying to find more info about the lateral flow aspect of this (the rest of it doesn't surprise me at this point, unfortunately). The only thing I could find is one statement by someone that said something that was ambiguous and I could read two ways--either they all took a lateral flow 24 hours before, or some of them did. I would like to know if the person who spread it to the others was one of the ones who took a lateral flow and if it was a full 24 hours before. We've been planning to have a family gathering for Christmas, and rapid tests before are one of the key pieces we had planned, so if we are still considering doing it (no idea at this point), it sounds really important that everyone do it immediately before the gathering. No one should be relying on a lateral flow done a full 24 hours earlier.

27 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

I do think it’s quite likely to be more mild.  I don’t think it’s going to be mild enough to justify the level of complete government inaction we’re seeing on it, iykwim.

 

Everything I'm seeing says that more mild is still going to be a major problem with as transmissible as this is. Even with it more mild, that number of people infected will have a larger impact on hospitals than a less transmissible but more severe variant would have.

22 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

This on weekly excess death stats from South Africa is not encouraging either. Although there may well be another explanation for the increase.

Was there supposed to be a link in your post? I hadn't seen an increase in South Africa. I thought this week showed a drop in cases, but steady hospitalizations, which was a good sign. A rise in excess deaths would be a bad sign.

[Ausmumof3]

9 minutes ago, KSera said:

I've been trying to find more info about the lateral flow aspect of this (the rest of it doesn't surprise me at this point, unfortunately). The only thing I could find is one statement by someone that said something that was ambiguous and I could read two ways--either they all took a lateral flow 24 hours before, or some of them did. I would like to know if the person who spread it to the others was one of the ones who took a lateral flow and if it was a full 24 hours before. We've been planning to have a family gathering for Christmas, and rapid tests before are one of the key pieces we had planned, so if we are still considering doing it (no idea at this point), it sounds really important that everyone do it immediately before the gathering. No one should be relying on a lateral flow done a full 24 hours earlier.

Everything I'm seeing says that more mild is still going to be a major problem with as transmissible as this is. Even with it more mild, that number of people infected will have a larger impact on hospitals than a less transmissible but more severe variant would have.

Was there supposed to be a link in your post? I hadn't seen an increase in South Africa. I thought this week showed a drop in cases, but steady hospitalizations, which was a good sign. A rise in excess deaths would be a bad sign.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-12-08/s-african-weekly-excess-deaths-almost-double-amid-omicron-wave
 

Oops.

To be honest giving it some more thought, if Omicron is as recent as its supposed to be it seems unlikely that this is directly linked to that? Maybe it’s still the last Delta surge? Not sure how adequate the testing is to know for sure.

[Ausmumof3]

 

[Ausmumof3]

10 cases here today. 6 from known source. 1 from interstate. 3 unlinked. Covid detected in wastewater in APY land. (Not good).  

[TCB]

8 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

10 cases here today. 6 from known source. 1 from interstate. 3 unlinked. Covid detected in wastewater in APY land. (Not good).  

It just blows my mind that some places are keeping track of things like this, and I wish I was there. In my state the Attorney General just wrote to all the health departments and school boards etc, threatening to sue them if they enforce any mandates, or impose quarantine, or contact trace anyone.  I really can’t believe that is so and that I just wrote that. I can’t do another round of this. If the Omicron variant proves to not be very mild and non dangerous I am quitting  my job. 

Edited December 12, 2021 by TCB
Typo

[Melissa Louise]

1 hour ago, Ausmumof3 said:

I do think it’s quite likely to be more mild.  I don’t think it’s going to be mild enough to justify the level of complete government inaction we’re seeing on it, iykwim. The logical thing would be to try get a pause on it for two to three weeks to see what the data does and then if it’s no biggie go back to the roadmap. Not act on very early insubstantial evidence when so many epidemiologists are saying it’s too soon to tell.

Meanwhile our treasurer is saying there’s no evidence for immune escape from vaccines.  Yes there is - in fact more evidence for that than that it’s going to be mild. I think we’ve been so desperate to open up again that we can’t switch gears.

 

Fed and state governmrnt are always at least six weeks behind this thread! 

 

[Melissa Louise]

11 minutes ago, TCB said:

It just blows my mind that some places are keeping track of things like this, and I wish I was there. In my state the Attorney General just wrote to all the health departments and school boards etc, threatening to sue them if they enforce any mandates, or impose quarantine, or contact trace anyone.  I really can’t believe that is so and that I just wrote that. I can’t do another round of this. If the Omicron variant proves to not be very mild and non dangerous I am quitting  my job. 

I think that would be fair. You've done your fair share.