wuhan - coronavirus

[TCB]

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp2026913?fbclid=IwAR1VsSFJaOt5sFswNnnrnq2DoEP-pSJyF3ij6HB88pdbLqRjNYfq2-1ypg4

[Ausmumof3]

BNO: Belgium reports record of nearly 24,000 new coronavirus cases, positivity rate at 31%

- New cases: 23,921
- Positivity rate: 31.1% (+3.5)
- In hospital: 6,187 (+263)
- In ICU: 1,057 (+64)
- New deaths: 138
 

I understand that Germany have agreed to help out with hospitalised patients if necessary.

[Ausmumof3]

91,530 cases for US yesterday from worldometer 

[Ausmumof3]

https://apple.news/ANbPpDqfAT0W82CeFncStCw
 

yodelling?  I wonder who thought that was a good idea!

[Acadie]

On 10/25/2020 at 5:47 PM, Ausmumof3 said:

 

Thanks for posting this! Time to get out the humidifier, now that our heat is on.

[BeachGal]

The gout medication Colchicine is working very well in moderate to severe Covid patients. If you or a loved one gets even moderately sick, you should ask for it. Print out the study and show it to them.

https://www.hindawi.com/journals/cjidmm/2020/8865954/

Results: An initial analysis performed on all patients, irrespective of the availability of two timepoint inflammatory markers, revealed a lower mortality (49.1% versus 72.9%, ), a lower percentage of intubations (52.8% versus 73.6%, ), and a higher discharge rate (50.9% versus 27.1%, ), in the patients who received colchicine. Patients in the final comprehensive analysis groups (34 in the colchicine group and 78 in the control group) had a similar prevalence of comorbid medical conditions, except for renal failure, which was higher in the control group (65.3% versus 35.2%, ). HTN (71.8% versus 52.9%, ) and DM (51.3% versus 32.4%, ) were also more prevalent in the control group, although the difference was not statistically significant. Patients who received colchicine had a lower mortality than the control group (47.1% versus 80.8%, ), lower rate of intubations (47.1% versus 87.2%, ), and a higher discharge rate (52.9% versus 19.2%, ). Patients in the colchicine group also showed a more significant decrease in inflammatory markers for D-dimer (), CRP (), and ferritin (). Conclusions. Our study demonstrates that colchicine improved outcomes in patients with COVID-19 receiving standard of care therapy. Future randomized, placebo-controlled clinical trials to assess the potential benefit of colchicine in COVID-19 are warranted.

[Corraleno]

1 hour ago, BeachGal said:

The gout medication Colchicine is working very well in moderate to severe Covid patients. If you or a loved one gets even moderately sick, you should ask for it. Print out the study and show it to them.

https://www.hindawi.com/journals/cjidmm/2020/8865954/

Results: An initial analysis performed on all patients, irrespective of the availability of two timepoint inflammatory markers, revealed a lower mortality (49.1% versus 72.9%, ), a lower percentage of intubations (52.8% versus 73.6%, ), and a higher discharge rate (50.9% versus 27.1%, ), in the patients who received colchicine. Patients in the final comprehensive analysis groups (34 in the colchicine group and 78 in the control group) had a similar prevalence of comorbid medical conditions, except for renal failure, which was higher in the control group (65.3% versus 35.2%, ). HTN (71.8% versus 52.9%, ) and DM (51.3% versus 32.4%, ) were also more prevalent in the control group, although the difference was not statistically significant. Patients who received colchicine had a lower mortality than the control group (47.1% versus 80.8%, ), lower rate of intubations (47.1% versus 87.2%, ), and a higher discharge rate (52.9% versus 19.2%, ). Patients in the colchicine group also showed a more significant decrease in inflammatory markers for D-dimer (), CRP (), and ferritin (). Conclusions. Our study demonstrates that colchicine improved outcomes in patients with COVID-19 receiving standard of care therapy. Future randomized, placebo-controlled clinical trials to assess the potential benefit of colchicine in COVID-19 are warranted.

Those results seem really positive — better than dexamethasone and, unlike dexamethasone, the benefit was not limited to only the most severe patients. The researchers don't mention how the patients were assigned to the treatment or control groups, though, so it may not have been totally random, and the control group did have a somewhat higher incidence of certain underlying conditions. Plus the study was quite small. But if those results can be replicated in a larger RCT, this would be the most effective option for treatment that we have so far.

[Pen]

Recent DrBeen video 

https://youtu.be/EMj8epBU034

At ~22 minutes in probably a little after that has a question asked him about medical workers showing continued Antibodies rather than waning antibodies, and his answer. 

(Idea:    Continual exposure  / or frequent reexposure keeps the antibodies up )

[BeachGal]

42 minutes ago, Corraleno said:

Those results seem really positive — better than dexamethasone and, unlike dexamethasone, the benefit was not limited to only the most severe patients. The researchers don't mention how the patients were assigned to the treatment or control groups, though, so it may not have been totally random, and the control group did have a somewhat higher incidence of certain underlying conditions. Plus the study was quite small. But if those results can be replicated in a larger RCT, this would be the most effective option for treatment that we have so far.

Results from the larger ColCorona Study will come out in December. That should be interesting. Colchicine looks like a game changer but we’ll have to wait and see those results. Here’s more if you’re interested:

https://www.colcorona.net/

[Pen]

8 minutes ago, BeachGal said:

Results from the larger ColCorona Study will come out in December. That should be interesting. Colchicine looks like a game changer but we’ll have to wait and see those results. Here’s more if you’re interested:

https://www.colcorona.net/

 

How many pills are taken?  The price plus possible difficulty convincing provider to prescribe it might make joining that trial a good thing if anyone knows anyone currently sick who would meet the criteria 

Drug Prices Gone Wild: 10 Old Drugs, 10 New Price Tags

Apr 16, 2020 — See this overview of generic drug pricing and transparency. ... sticker shock, and the circumstances surrounding their price hike. ... Colchicine cash prices soared from less than a dime to almost $5.00 ..

 

per pill 

[BeachGal]

20 minutes ago, Pen said:

 

How many pills are taken?  The price plus possible difficulty convincing provider to prescribe it might make joining that trial a good thing if anyone knows anyone currently sick who would meet the criteria 

Drug Prices Gone Wild: 10 Old Drugs, 10 New Price Tags

Apr 16, 2020 — See this overview of generic drug pricing and transparency. ... sticker shock, and the circumstances surrounding their price hike. ... Colchicine cash prices soared from less than a dime to almost $5.00 ..

 

per pill 

I'm not sure what they're prescribing but if anyone has gout, they might be in a good position if the dosage is similar! My husband's cousin in Lombardy, for instance, has gout and takes Colchicine. LOL

Now if we can just get an accurate, rapid, cheap diagnostic test...

[Corraleno]

1 hour ago, Pen said:

 

How many pills are taken?  The price plus possible difficulty convincing provider to prescribe it might make joining that trial a good thing if anyone knows anyone currently sick who would meet the criteria 

Drug Prices Gone Wild: 10 Old Drugs, 10 New Price Tags

Apr 16, 2020 — See this overview of generic drug pricing and transparency. ... sticker shock, and the circumstances surrounding their price hike. ... Colchicine cash prices soared from less than a dime to almost $5.00 ..

 

per pill 

 

The dosage in the linked study was one 0.6 mg pill  twice a day for 3 days, then once a day for 12 days. At an average of $3/pill for generic, that's just over 50 bucks for a full course of treatment.

By comparison, treatment with Remdesivir costs around $3000 — and it doesn't even work. I think it's really dodgy that Gilead got super fast FDA approval with zero input from the usual panel of experts, and they signed a nearly billion dollar contract with the EU just days before the damning results of the WHO study were released, which Gilead knew about but the EU did not. 

[Ausmumof3]

Over 100,000 cases for US yesterday.

i was shopping today here any everything’s feeling very normal.  As long as quarantine is effective that’s ok, but if it gets going again it could spread pretty quickly I think because people are very relaxed about distancing etc.

[Rosie_0801]

3 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Over 100,000 cases for US yesterday.

i was shopping today here any everything’s feeling very normal.  As long as quarantine is effective that’s ok, but if it gets going again it could spread pretty quickly I think because people are very relaxed about distancing etc.

South and Western Australia each have a new case today. Both children.

[Ausmumof3]

9 minutes ago, Rosie_0801 said:

South and Western Australia each have a new case today. Both children.

Have you seen an article?  sa health just said in medi hotel and a contact of a known case so not an overseas traveller.  It was a little light on detail I guess for privacy.  We also had three in quarantine so more than Vic today.

[Rosie_0801]

Just now, Ausmumof3 said:

Have you seen an article?  sa health just said in medi hotel and a contact of a known case so not an overseas traveller.  It was a little light on detail I guess for privacy.  We also had three in quarantine so more than Vic today.

Only the ABC article. It wasn't much more than an announcement.

[Ausmumof3]

2 hours ago, Rosie_0801 said:

Only the ABC article. It wasn't much more than an announcement.

All good!  I’m sure if there was anything major to worry about they’d tell us.  

[Bambam]

Useful site for showing status of not only cases, positivity rate, testing efforts, but also hospitalization and how contact tracing is going. 
(I believe the hospitalization info comes from the HHS hospital data. I'm pretty sure I read that somewhere, but if I'm wrong, please correct me.)

https://www.covidexitstrategy.org/

 

ETA: This is the link to the HHS hospitalization data stuff - https://protect-public.hhs.gov/datasets/state-representative-estimates-for-hospital-utilization/data

Edited October 31, 2020 by Bambam

[Ausmumof3]

England is going into lockdown till December 1

[Ausmumof3]

0 new cases in Vic today.  

[Ausmumof3]

Global cases yesterday for one day were at 573,000 and deaths at 7.5 thousand.  There are only four days back in April with higher global death rates.

[Ausmumof3]

Locally the Tour Down Under has been called off and Superloop 500 (v8 car race) has ended most likely permanently.  I guess those things are probably not good for the economy.  Also one of Australia’s four refineries is closing meaning 600 jobs gone.  The superloop was already in trouble and I think the TDU will come back but the refinery closure will hurt jobs-wise.  

[Ausmumof3]

France has had 46,000 cases so far today.  

[Laura Corin]

Coronavirus, temperature and humidity

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02972-4

 

[Melissa in Australia]

0 new cases for 4th day in a row for Victoria. 

The hard lockdown worked

[Corraleno]

 

(Apologies if this was already posted, I'm losing track of what has been posted where)

A new study by economists at the University of Kansas has found that counties in the state where residents are obliged to wear masks in public have seen about half as many new coronavirus infections as counties that do not have a mask mandate in force.

The study by the university’s Institute for Policy & Social Research is part of a countrywide trend, experts said. Localities that impose mask mandates often see fewer cases, fewer hospitalizations, fewer deaths or lower test-positivity rates than nearby localities that do not.

The same trend has been seen in Alabama, Kansas, Oklahoma, South Carolina and Texas, according to a report from Prevent Pandemics, a nonprofit group advocating pandemic-fighting measures.

“Mask mandates, if they are done well, can increase mask use — and increased mask use is part of an effective response,” said Dr. Thomas R. Frieden, a former director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention who now runs Resolve to Save Lives, of which Prevent Pandemics is a part.

The Kansas study began after Gov. Laura Kelly issued a statewide mask order on July 2, but allowed counties to opt out of it. She was obliged to give counties that freedom under a law passed in June limiting her emergency management powers. All but 24 of the state’s 105 counties formally opted out of her mask order, and only 20 counties enforced it.

“Economists love natural experiments, and Kansas was running a natural experiment,” said Donna K. Ginther, director of the university’s Institute for Policy & Social Research, which conducted the study.

Differences in the spread of the virus between the masked and unmasked counties began to appear about two weeks later, she said, “and in mid-August, cases really began to take off.”

In the mask-wearing counties, new-case rates stayed roughly steady at about 7 per 100,000 residents through mid-October, her figures show, while they doubled in counties without mandates, to about 14 per 100,000.

Cellphone-tracking data from the University of Maryland showed no differences in how often people left home in the counties with or without mask mandates, she said, so it seemed likely that the masks made the difference.

[mathnerd]

On 10/27/2020 at 5:10 AM, Ausmumof3 said:

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2020/10/26/world/covid-19-coronavirus-updates#eli-lilly-said-its-antibody-treatment-does-not-work-on-patients-hospitalized-with-covid-19
 

Eli Lilly trial for antibody treatment is halting in hospitalised patients as it doesn’t seem to help.  Trials in people with new infections are continuing.

There is similar news about Regenron as well, don't know if it was posted upthread (thread is too long to search), so posting again:

Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc. suspended testing of its Covid-19 antibody drug in the sickest hospitalized patients because of a safety concern, the latest setback for antibody-drug trials in patients with the most advanced disease.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/trial-of-covid-19-antibody-drug-regeneron-is-halted-in-sickest-hospital-patients-11604071118

https://www.ft.com/content/42256a8d-0073-4f57-9ac4-d3cc65a8e5c0

 

[Bambam]

2 hours ago, Corraleno said:

 

(Apologies if this was already posted, I'm losing track of what has been posted where)

A new study by economists at the University of Kansas has found that counties in the state where residents are obliged to wear masks in public have seen about half as many new coronavirus infections as counties that do not have a mask mandate in force.

<snip>

Do you have a link to the original article? Or did I miss it? 

[Corraleno]

17 minutes ago, Bambam said:

Do you have a link to the original article? Or did I miss it? 

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2020/10/26/world/covid-19-coronavirus-updates/kansas-counties-with-mask-mandates-had-half-the-rate-of-new-infections-a-study-finds

[Ausmumof3]

35 minutes ago, Happymomof1 said:

Ok, I'm really confused. How can they say this wasn't caused by Covid???

https://www.wndu.com/2020/11/03/coroner-releases-report-in-death-of-grace-college-student/

I don’t know because covid can cause the clotting issues.  Maybe there’s some way they can tell how long it’s been there during the autopsy?  

[TCB]

1 hour ago, Ausmumof3 said:

I don’t know because covid can cause the clotting issues.  Maybe there’s some way they can tell how long it’s been there during the autopsy?  

If she had Covid it almost certainly was what caused a PE. That is not uncommon at all with our Covid patients. 

[Pen]

1 hour ago, Ausmumof3 said:

I don’t know because covid can cause the clotting issues.  Maybe there’s some way they can tell how long it’s been there during the autopsy?  

 

How long it has been there is what it sounded like to me as the likely distinction. 

 

————-

Do any of you have any info about vaping and CV19?

 

A young person I know said that in some cases being discussed by some young people they think anecdotally that vaping may be causing pulmonary problems—that probably does not apply to the college student you are asking about, but apparently may be a problem for a number of seemingly healthy young people. And it is apparently a problem not being discussed, not mentioned as a potential risk for worse sickness in that ~ age group.  

I am also wondering whether in places that have had bad wildfire smoke if it too could add to lung problems if there’s a virus plus environmental smoke. 

[Ausmumof3]

https://amp.dw.com/en/belgiums-covid-19-health-care-collapse-it-will-happen-in-10-days/a-55451750?__twitter_impression=true

 

Belgium hospitals will need to triage or transfer patients to German in about 10 days.  
 

https://www.nzz.ch/schweiz/coronavirus-in-der-schweiz-die-neusten-entwicklungen-ld.1542664

not sure about this source but Switzerland ICUs likely to be full within 5 days. 

Edited November 3, 2020 by Ausmumof3

[Ausmumof3]

I have been a bit distracted by the election and also trying not to post too much in chat because it’s too easy for me to say something political and I’m really trying not to make life harder for the awesome moderators here 

But looks like US had 108,000 cases on Worldometer yesterday.  Deaths as usual trend up more slowly but rolling average is getting close to 900 a day again.

Italy went into partial lockdown again yesterday I think.

Vic and NSW both reported 0 local cases.  In Sa we had another in hotel quarantine.  Currently 12 total.  Locally all restrictions on aged care are being listed except for a masking requirement when dealing with covid 19 patients.

I haven’t seen an update but Norman Swan mentioned on Coronacast that Christchurch were have a small outbreak linked to Russian sailors (?).  I know Russia just posted record case and death numbers.

Reuters reported that the Astra Zeneca vaccine schedule has been pushed back.  

[Pen]

 

1 hour ago, Ausmumof3 said:

But looks like US had 108,000 cases on Worldometer yesterday.  Deaths as usual trend up more slowly but rolling average is getting close to 900 a day again.

Italy went into partial lockdown again yesterday I think.

Vic and NSW both reported 0 local cases.  In Sa we had another in hotel quarantine.  Currently 12 total.  Locally all restrictions on aged care are being listed except for a masking requirement when dealing with covid 19 patients.

 

 

My state has had a 34% case spike this past week. 

Primarily still in younger people, with probably usually pretty good recoveries. 

But some in aged care facilities will likely become deaths. 

 

 

Edited November 5, 2020 by Pen

[Ausmumof3]

17 minutes ago, Pen said:

 

 

 

My state has had a 34% case spike this past week. 

Primarily still in younger people, with probably usually pretty good recoveries. 

But some in aged care facilities will likely become deaths. 

 

 

Have you watched dr been today?  I haven’t had time to watch but looked like it was about ivermectin and mortality rates so interested to see what he had to say.

[Ausmumof3]

24 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Have you watched dr been today?  I haven’t had time to watch but looked like it was about ivermectin and mortality rates so interested to see what he had to say.

Quoting myself to say I listened to it but sounds like it was observational and not RCT.  Without reading in depth it seems like some of the exclusions would have caused a lower mortality rate.  Anyone know if there are more recent RCT studies on ivermectin completed yet?

[Pen]

30 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Have you watched dr been today?  I haven’t had time to watch but looked like it was about ivermectin and mortality rates so interested to see what he had to say.

 

I expect Ivermectin would be continuing to do well as a common person’s option. It isn’t something I could use, so I am not quick to try to catch  news  on it, especially with so much else going on  .   

 

(Eta: idk if it is a significant benefit or not, but most people apparently tolerate ivermectin well and it is readily available in Dominican Republic and not expensive, so to me it makes sense to give it a try for people who can tolerate it. ) 

 

 

Plus trying to get in some humor and NaNoWriMo 😊

 

here’s the basics in written form from a med archive preprint:

[There seem to be some English problems.]

“, 3,099 patients with a definitive or highly probable diagnosis of infection due to COVID-19 were evaluated between May 1st to August 10th, 2020, at Centro Medico Bournigal (CMBO) and Centro Medico Punta Cana (CMPC), and all received compassionate treatment with Ivermectin. A total of 2,706 (87.3%) were discharged for outpatient treatment, all with mild severity of the infection. In 2,688 (99.33%) with outpatient treatment, the disease did not progress to warrant further hospitalization and there were no deaths. In 16 (0.59%) with outpatient treatment, it was necessary their subsequent hospitalization to a room without any death. In 2 (0.08%) with outpatient treatment, it was necessary their admission to the Intensive Care Unit (ICU) and 1 (0.04%) patient died. There were 411 (13.3%) patients hospitalized, being admitted at a COVID-19 room with a moderate disease 300 (9.7%) patients of which 3 (1%) died; and with a severe to critical disease were hospitalized in the ICU 111 (3.6%), 34 (30.6%) of whom died. The mortality percentage of patients admitted to the ICU of 30.6%, is similar with the percentage found in the literature of 30.9%. Total mortality was 37 (1.2%) patients, which is much lower than that reported in world statistics, which are around 3%. “

 

Edited November 5, 2020 by Pen

[Pen]

And as I was finishing off some stuff for night I found that Oregon Governor has called in Oregon National Guard due to increased rioting.   It is not really CV19 related, but for some reason it feels like it is to me. Maybe because going into city now results in my thinking about CV19 exposure, crowd violence exposure, etc together. 

[Ausmumof3]

Well Denmark is now going to kill their entire farmed mink population because a mutation in mink has been found capable of moving back into people posing a risk to future vaccine programmes.
 

https://news.trust.org/item/20201104145311-h280p/

this seems kind of tragic though I don’t know what mink farms are like.  I’m not a fan of breeding animals just for fur but maybe that is not the case.  And then that’s peoples livelihoods lost as well.

Edited November 5, 2020 by Ausmumof3

[Ausmumof3]

“Denmark's health minister said around half of 783 infected Danes in Northern Denmark, home to a large number of mink farms, had been infected with a virus strain stemming from the farms.“
 

also this is kind of worrying!

[Ausmumof3]

15 minutes ago, Pen said:

And as I was finishing off some stuff for night I found that Oregon Governor has called in Oregon National Guard due to increased rioting.   It is not really CV19 related, but for some reason it feels like it is to me. Maybe because going into city now results in my thinking about CV19 exposure, crowd violence exposure, etc together. 

Because at least for me it’s hard to see how rioting, protesting, voting in person any of those activities aren’t going to increase spread.  Indoors, outdoors, masked, unmasked, crowds just seem like a bad idea right now.  And at this point what are they really hoping to achieve?  Nothing can be changed about the votes, they’ve been cast, they need to be counted so protesting won’t change that.  It just adds to the danger/sense of instability for everyone.

 

Edited November 5, 2020 by Ausmumof3

[Ausmumof3]

Also this 

“Official Government website: "The mutated form of virus that the Statens Serum Institut has found has shown reduced sensitivity to antibodies, and it is a variant of virus that can migrate from mink to humans."

Supposedly comes from here

https://coronasmitte.dk/mink

I can’t read it but will try running through google translate once dinner is out the way.

[TravelingChris]

2 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Because at least for me it’s hard to see how rioting, protesting, voting in person any of those activities aren’t going to increase spread.  Indoors, outdoors, masked, unmasked, crowds just seem like a bad idea right now.  And at this point what are they really hoping to achieve?  Nothing can be changed about the votes, they’ve been cast, they need to be counted so protesting won’t change that.  It just adds to the danger/sense of instability for everyone.

 

They are anarchists,  They do not want Trump and they do not want Biden either.  There are many reports that the same people have been attacking people or places with signs for either or thought to support either.

[Ausmumof3]

5 new active cases in quarantine in my state today 16 altogether. 

[Ausmumof3]

BREAKING NEWS: Denmark 🇩🇰 seals off seven municipalities in north Jutland. The train and bus traffic is discontinued. The reason is the first infections of residents with a mutated species of in the mink farms #SARS_CoV_2 Pathogen.@tagesschau@XIAN70
 

more on the Denmark situation.  I’m hoping this is an overreaction.  

[Ausmumof3]

Iowa situation doesn’t sound good

 

The post is from an epidemiologist/ID doctor. There are also various comments down thread from other medical personnel.  
 

Im assuming maybe there are staff from other states that can be moved in if things continue to get worse. 

[Jean in Newcastle]

Local hospital has an outbreak of cases but the news says that contact tracing showed the origin to be from the community. I just thought that was interesting since so many anti maskers point to hospital outbreaks as being “proof” that masks don’t work. 

[HSMWB]

I do find this interesting, and am NOT ‘anti-mask’, but at the same time, how is a ‘hospital outbreak’ determined to be ‘community spread’??  Especially if said hospital is in a place that has basically 100% masking compliance and has had public masking mandates for months. Does this mean that people who work at the hospital are not masking outside of work??  Or that it is just coincidence that these people work together?  I’m not exactly sure what the definition of what a ‘hospital outbreak’ or what ‘community speak’ is based on contact tracing.  I only put these in quotes because it seems like they are being used as a very specific term in this instance. 

[Ausmumof3]

4 minutes ago, HSMWB said:

I do find this interesting, and am NOT ‘anti-mask’, but at the same time, how is a ‘hospital outbreak’ determined to be ‘community spread’??  Especially if said hospital is in a place that has basically 100% masking compliance and has had public masking mandates for months. Does this mean that people who work at the hospital are not masking outside of work??  Or that it is just coincidence that these people work together?  I’m not exactly sure what the definition of what a ‘hospital outbreak’ or what ‘community speak’ is based on contact tracing.  I only put these in quotes because it seems like they are being used as a very specific term in this instance. 

I’d be skeptical about it.  In Victoria here they kept blaming the hospital cases on community spread even when the rates in medical staff were significantly higher than the rest of the state.  I think they didn’t want to admit they needed to do fit testing on the masks.