wuhan - coronavirus

[Ausmumof3]

Nsw had 11 community transmission cases today.  The premier is “very concerned we are on the verge of another outbreak”. I’m not overly happy about what this means for us in my state because our borders are open to NSW and I suspect getting them closed a second time will be much harder.  Hopefully they can test track and trace the way out without needing another lock down.  Two GPS were infected yesterday as well so contact tracing is happening for all their patients.  Just a reminder I guess that it’s never truly gone.  

[Ausmumof3]

It seems like one of the issues around masks is this kind of black and white thinking.  People think masks either stop the virus or don’t stop the virus.  Whereas really masks reduce the potential for the virus to get to you but they aren’t a magic filter that completely stops it.  If there’s a lot of virus circulating they might reduce the viral load you get.  If you’re reasonably distanced with low level of virus circulating it might be enough to stop transmission completely.  
 

I must admit before this pandemic is was much less aware of a lot of this and I’m sure that people with less time to read and learn probably still think in terms of absolutes.  That’s why I think that Swiss cheese graphic is so helpful. We’re really looking for multiple layers of protection.  Sometimes one or another layer will not be possible. 

[Melissa in Australia]

2 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

There seems to be a seasonal aspect to this virus I think?  Not the biggest or major driver but one factor.  The new study that showed longer surface survival times showed that was much more significant at lower temperatures.  At around 30-40 degrees it really dropped off.  It may just be coincidence though.

Celsius or Fahrenheit? 

[Ausmumof3]

1 minute ago, Melissa in Australia said:

Celsius or Fahrenheit? 

I think it would Celsius because it was a CSIRO study from Australia.  I’ll go and check it.

[Ausmumof3]

6 minutes ago, Melissa in Australia said:

Celsius or Fahrenheit? 

I checked and it’s Celsius.  Up to 28 days on some surfaces at 20degrees.  At 40 degrees it drops to around 24 hours.  Also the study was done in dark conditions I think.  Sunlight helps to inactivate the virus on surfaces.  
 

the graph shows different surface types and temps

and here’s the original study in case anyone is interested

https://link.springer.com/epdf/10.1186/s12985-020-01418-7?sharing_token=gZeWNzpBqGqMWWlYBszijm_BpE1tBhCbnbw3BuzI2RPH7jdqQjm4GSWc627bmRViN0gdjUUXa4XmNsLCVxARS5fW6_H-pdK1v6GxwHmr02IpeWQaQhWfdiZqkh8IAAPswG5OMBeJlMvLtQ_xpm3V7AzNehvYyja-6O3X0Zs6-M4%3D

 

[Pen]

Eli Lilly paused its  antibody trial. 

[Ausmumof3]

10 minutes ago, Pen said:

Eli Lilly paused its  antibody trial. 

I wish there was some more info on why.  

[Ausmumof3]

We now have 6 active covid cases in hotel quarantine in SA.  3 new ones today.  There’s been an uptick in the number of these cases being imported.  Obviously it’s very low risk but I do believe the more positive cases in quarantine the higher the chance of it breaking out somewhere.

[Ausmumof3]

https://www.cell.com/cell-stem-cell/fulltext/S1934-5909(20)30495-1
 

“

• SARS-CoV-2 entry factors are expressed in choroid plexus (ChP) cells
• •
  More mature lipid-producing ChP cells could be more susceptible to SARS-CoV-2 infection
• •
  SARS-CoV-2 productively infects ChP, but not neurons in organoids
• •
  SARS-CoV-2 infection damages the ChP epithelium causing leakage of this brain barrier “

[Pen]

14 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

It seems like one of the issues around masks is this kind of black and white thinking.  People think masks either stop the virus or don’t stop the virus.  Whereas really masks reduce the potential for the virus to get to you but they aren’t a magic filter that completely stops it.  If there’s a lot of virus circulating they might reduce the viral load you get.  If you’re reasonably distanced with low level of virus circulating it might be enough to stop transmission completely.  
 

I must admit before this pandemic is was much less aware of a lot of this and I’m sure that people with less time to read and learn probably still think in terms of absolutes.  That’s why I think that Swiss cheese graphic is so helpful. We’re really looking for multiple layers of protection.  Sometimes one or another layer will not be possible. 

 

In addition to that there are incorrect conclusions that get drawn from data.  Logic errors. 

By analogy, idk what % of soldiers who get injured by land mines are wearing some sort of protective gear, but I expect that it is higher percentage who wear protective gear when going somewhere they could come across a land mine than when they are in barracks, on leave, in mess hall, or various places not likely to encounter a land mine. Thus a statistic like 85% (or whatever) of soldiers who were killed by land mines were wearing protective gear, does not mean the protective gear caused the death or that no protective gear in the same risky circumstances would be better. 

Or 98% (made up figure) of automobile accidents involved vehicles with working brakes. Conclusion? 

Or even more extreme, something like x% (~100% ?) of skydivers who had serious sky diving injuries or death were using parachutes. This would not prove that not using a parachute improves sky diving safety.   

(ETA: these examples also don’t prove the “safety gear” item is not the cause... It could be that the parachutes were being made in a way that actually was highly dangerous in itself, or that brakes actually are worse than not having them — perhaps with no brakes everyone would drive  very very very slowly so that fatalities would be more rare due to there almost never being enough impact to cause a fatal accident, and pedestrians having plenty of time to move out of way.  But the study and percentages don’t work logically for the conclusions that I hear get drawn.)

 

 

 

Edited October 14, 2020 by Pen

[BeachGal]

I posted this article from BioSpace elsewhere but I'll post it here, too.

https://www.biospace.com/article/operation-warp-speed-boss-1st-covid-19-vaccine-eua-likely-around-thanksgiving/

Quote

 

Operation Warp Speed Boss Projects COVID-19 Vaccine EUA by Thanksgiving

Published: Oct 12, 2020 By Mark Terry

Moncef Slaoui, the head of Operation Warp Speed, the government project to push along the COVID-19 vaccine development, suggested the first Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) for a vaccine will likely be around Thanksgiving. This is in marked contrast to President Trump repeatedlysaying a vaccine would be ready this month before the November 3 election, although it is consistent with what most experts and sponsor companies have been saying.

Slaoui, who is an immunologist by training and a former head of GlaxoSmithKline’s vaccines programs, said he is hopeful drug companies will file for EUA with the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) by late November and immunizing high-risk populations would begin this year. He also believes the vaccines may be more effective in clinical trials than had been previously reported.

“My expectation is really something between 80% and 90% efficacy,” he said.

That’s significantly higher than the 50% threshold the FDA had reported they were looking for, and if it turns out to be the case, it shows significant promise for getting populations closer to herd immunity.

At this time, the three leading vaccine candidates are Moderna, Pfizer and BioNTech, and AstraZeneca and the University of Oxford. Stephane Bancel, chief executive officer of Moderna, recently indicated he didn’t expect Moderna to have actionable data for an EUA until sometime in November. The Pfizer-BioNTech group said in mid-September that it might have key data from their Phase III trial by the end of October. The AstraZeneca-Oxford trial is currently still on clinical hold in the U.S. after a severe reaction to the vaccine called transverse myelitis in a UK patient. The trial has since resumed in the UK, but on hold in the U.S.

A fourth company, Johnson & Johnson, is making progress, but will not be likely to having supporting data and an EUA until sometime in the first quarter of 2021. Dozens of other companies are working on a vaccine, but results will be later in 2021.

Operation Warp Speed has been praised and criticized for its aggressive schedule. The original goal was to deliver 300 million doses of a vaccine beginning in January. The critics have questioned the feasibility of doing this in a safe way without cutting corners. Those who praise it have noted that the plans, which include funding various companies, manufacturing deals and distribution arrangements, such as with McKesson and the U.S. military, have been impressive.

The biggest criticism has revolved around the politicization of the efforts, largely due to Trump. In early September, Slaoui indicated he would resign if the government tried to push through an unsafe and ineffective vaccine. It was, he told Science, his biggest concern. He said after he was asked to run the project, “Honestly, I hung up and told my wife, ‘Oh shit.’ I was hesitant around the politics.”

He says he prefers to focus on the data and not the politics.

“I hope this never happens again, that such events are politicized,” Slaoui told MarketWatch last Wednesday. “We’re forgetting something, which is people are dying, and forgetting another thing, which is never ever before has an effort of this proportion been made and vaccines been developed in a period of less than a year.”

The FDA recently reported new guidelines for the vaccine EUA, including monitoring of participants after their final dose for two months and that at least five cases of severe COVID-19 are observed in the placebo cohort.

“The safety follow-up is reasonable. The safety database of the FDA [shows] that most of the significant adverse events associated with immunization take place within 40 days or so days from the last immunization," Slaoui said. "Therefore, requiring that 50% of the population included in the trial would have crossed that two-month time frame to have people have two months, three months, four months of follow-up after their second dose is a good takeaway. It’s going to give you a reasonable sampling of most of the adverse events of any one of these vaccines. That coupled with very strong active pharmacovigilance, upon introduction of the vaccine, should fully characterize the long-term safety of the vaccine.”

In terms of the efficacy, he said the FDA’s 50% bar was really about how to “power the clinical trial. It’s not about what the expectation from the vaccines is. We don’t want to miss a vaccine that has 50% efficacy, if that was to be the reality. Because 50% efficacy in the setting of a pandemic may mean 500 deaths prevented every day—that’s quite relevant.”

But his expectation is 80% to 90% efficacy. “I would be very negatively surprised if it was closer to 50%. Everything we see, including the recent data by Lilly and Regeneron, with monoclonal antibody transfer, suggested robust efficacy can be achieved.”

In terms of timeline, Slaoui says he believes, “We will know if a vaccine works … anytime late October, or November, or in December. But I expect the EUA filing to happen three [or] four weeks after that moment of when we know the vaccine is efficacious, maybe if we work like crazy, we make it happen in two weeks.”

He described the involvement of an independent data safety monitoring board (DSMB) that will be evaluating specific data, and then the companies themselves will likely spend time cleaning up the data and making what are called “queries” to the clinical trial sites to clarify anything on the case report forms, all of which are good clinical practice requirements. That would take at least a week to assure every case is real and corresponds to a primary endpoint definition or secondary endpoint definition.

“Let’s say if the number of cases is obtained,” Slaoui said. “I’m going to even say October. 29, [though] it may be until Nov. 10 or Nov. 7. And then it may be until the end of November when the file is actually fully completed and submitted to the FDA for emergency use. It’s important to factor in those periods of time. Things don’t happen overnight; otherwise you will be making mistakes.”

 

 

Edited October 14, 2020 by BeachGal
added link

[RootAnn]

On 10/13/2020 at 4:53 PM, hopeallgoeswell said:

 It is another layer of protection we could add right now, keeping more people out of your ICU.

Several people on this thread have suggested some supplements that are supposed to help increase vitamin D or increase zinc absorption in the body (as two examples) because there appears to be a correlation between higher Vitamin D levels & better covid outcomes. (I think at one point zinc levels were also shown to have a correlation but I'm not sure if that has held up.) So, I do think there are some who are advocating fairly easy, short term actions which can provide another layer of possible making-the-virus's-effects less.

I just saw a paper about how having type O blood might mean you are less likely to end up in the hospital or die if you get covid. Unfortunately, that isn't something easily changed. But, this thread is about sharing data & ideas as well as sometimes personal anecdotes & experience. I welcome @kdsuomi's point of view & @Ausmumof3's & @TCB's & @hopeallgoeswell's & @Pen's & .... I just hope we can all be polite. 

Edited October 15, 2020 by RootAnn
My autocorrect thinks covid=vivid

[Corraleno]

1 hour ago, BeachGal said:

I posted this article from BioSpace elsewhere but I'll post it here, too.

https://www.biospace.com/article/operation-warp-speed-boss-1st-covid-19-vaccine-eua-likely-around-thanksgiving/

 

I have a lot of reservations about Moderna. They have no experience in developing vaccines, yet they were chosen as one of the three companies that the US Government would invest $2.5 billion in as part of Operation Warp Speed. Some have suggested that they were included primarily because they promised a vaccine before the election, not because they were the most qualified. They put out a press release in May touting great success, which led to a big increase in Moderna's stock price — which several top executives quickly cashed in on. Critics pointed out that the press release that boosted stock prices was somewhat misleading because although 100% (or whatever their number was) of the subjects developed antibodies, only a much smaller percentage developed the type of antibodies that "count." Moderna has been cagey about their data, while executives continued selling off more than $120 million in stock. The Chief Medical Officer has sold ALL his stock, pocketing $60 million, and he no longer has a stake in Moderna. Why would someone do that if they thought their vaccine was going to be a big success? (Not to mention the question of why these executives should be able to walk away with personal fortunes for developing a vaccine that was largely paid for by taxpayers.) I don't know a lot about the other vaccine candidates, but I definitely won't be at the head of the line for Moderna's.

[BeachGal]

1 hour ago, Corraleno said:

I have a lot of reservations about Moderna. They have no experience in developing vaccines, yet they were chosen as one of the three companies that the US Government would invest $2.5 billion in as part of Operation Warp Speed. Some have suggested that they were included primarily because they promised a vaccine before the election, not because they were the most qualified. They put out a press release in May touting great success, which led to a big increase in Moderna's stock price — which several top executives quickly cashed in on. Critics pointed out that the press release that boosted stock prices was somewhat misleading because although 100% (or whatever their number was) of the subjects developed antibodies, only a much smaller percentage developed the type of antibodies that "count." Moderna has been cagey about their data, while executives continued selling off more than $120 million in stock. The Chief Medical Officer has sold ALL his stock, pocketing $60 million, and he no longer has a stake in Moderna. Why would someone do that if they thought their vaccine was going to be a big success? (Not to mention the question of why these executives should be able to walk away with personal fortunes for developing a vaccine that was largely paid for by taxpayers.) I don't know a lot about the other vaccine candidates, but I definitely won't be at the head of the line for Moderna's.

From what I understand, there is a desire to develop the newer mRNA vaccines so as to significantly shorten vaccine development while making them safer and more efficacious and that is why they chose Moderna. Bill Gates is a big backer of theirs because of this technology, iirc. I’ll look into the political aspect but that is almost always there with any drug or vaccine and their lobbyists.

They are not as established as the others — Pfizer, Merck, J&J — and I’ve read that there were bumps along the way in regard to communication and agreements but ultimately what will determine whether they roll out are the data from the trials. The data from Phases 1, 2 and what we know as of yet from 3 seem good. The (secret) DSMB reviews their data so I don’t see how Moderna could hide or manipulate results. Maybe I’m missing something though?

I read about their stock sales from Motley Fool back in September. I’m not entirely sure what to make of it. It does raise questions and I wonder if other company execs are doing this as well.

https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/09/10/what-to-know-about-modernas-insider-selling/

If I have a choice, I’m not yet sure which one I’ll go with. I’m going to wait until the results start coming in and go from there.

[Ausmumof3]

5 hours ago, BeachGal said:

I posted this article from BioSpace elsewhere but I'll post it here, too.

https://www.biospace.com/article/operation-warp-speed-boss-1st-covid-19-vaccine-eua-likely-around-thanksgiving/

 

Sorry to pick up on just one thing out of so much but they said with Astra Zeneca that the vaccine has caused a severe reaction called transverse myelitis . I had thought that was not proven to be vaccine related just wondering if that’s since changes and I missed something?

[Ausmumof3]

Germany sees 6,638 daily virus cases, highest since start of pandemic

[Ausmumof3]

Also on the topic of vaccines Johnson and Johnson’s phase three trial had only started two weeks ago.  It’s quite soon into the trial to have had to shut down.

[Pen]

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5906799/

about mRNA Vaccines from prior to Covid 19

[BeachGal]

14 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Sorry to pick up on just one thing out of so much but they said with Astra Zeneca that the vaccine has caused a severe reaction called transverse myelitis . I had thought that was not proven to be vaccine related just wondering if that’s since changes and I missed something?

It’s only paused in the US for whatever reason. All other countries resumed the trial. From what I read, the reaction was not caused by the vaccine. I have no idea why the US is not resuming.

[Ausmumof3]

8 minutes ago, BeachGal said:

It’s only paused in the US for whatever reason. All other countries resumed the trial. From what I read, the reaction was not caused by the vaccine. I have no idea why the US is not resuming.

Yes that’s what I thought but that’s the way the biosphere article reads.  I wasn’t sure if it was just sloppy wording or if I’d missed something.  That’s the vaccine we will most likely get in Aus so I’m hoping it’s safe.

[Ausmumof3]

Worldwide 381,000 cases yesterday.

rolling average at around 330,000 per day.

[Pen]

One of the confirmed reinfection cases was with a significantly different version of SARS2 in just 2 or 3 months, same region

I hope that won’t present a major problem for vaccines 

it does seem to me to be a major reason to work on bolstering personal innate immunity and 

keeping on working on treatments especially ones that might be able to turn things around early in the illness

[Ausmumof3]

6 cases for vic so heading down again but also 6 cases for NSW.  Some of them were linked to an outbreak a while ago so they know there’s been undetected transmission.  Wastewater surveillance continues to be a good early indicator.

[Ausmumof3]

Just now, Pen said:

One of the confirmed reinfection cases was with a significantly different version of SARS2 in just 2 or 3 months, same region

I hope that won’t present a major problem for vaccines 

it does seem to me to be a major reason to work on bolstering personal innate immunity and 

keeping on working on treatments especially ones that might be able to turn things around early in the illness

Also for reducing spread as much as possible.  The more virus extant the more change for significant changes to happen.

[Rosie_0801]

On 10/14/2020 at 9:16 AM, Ausmumof3 said:

7 cases for Vic and sadly 5 deaths today.  

The same Sweetpea who set off the Kilmore cluster set off the developing problem in Shepparton. He had permission to travel between Melbourne and Benalla, but I'm yet to hear why he thought it was okay to be in towns that are significant detours from either.

There are huge lines in Shepp waiting to be tested. Some were waiting 8 hours yesterday, then got told to come back today. They're open later tonight but are still trying to get enough manpower up there to get the job done. 😞

[Ausmumof3]

38 minutes ago, Rosie_0801 said:

The same Sweetpea who set off the Kilmore cluster set off the developing problem in Shepparton. He had permission to travel between Melbourne and Benalla, but I'm yet to hear why he thought it was okay to be in towns that are significant detours from either.

There are huge lines in Shepp waiting to be tested. Some were waiting 8 hours yesterday, then got told to come back today. They're open later tonight but are still trying to get enough manpower up there to get the job done. 😞

Oh no!  So frustrating.  

[Pen]

11 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Also for reducing spread as much as possible.  The more virus extant the more change for significant changes to happen.

 

From a case severity

pov I tend to think that spread reduction  / viral load reduction is important 

From a mutation POV It is not actually definitely the case that after a certain amount of virus is present that more change is more likely if there is more virus.  Maybe.    It assumes that virus is entirely subject only to chance mutation and that a certain approximate percent will mutate whatever the total amount is  — however, we don’t actually know that. 

It may possibly mutate less if it reaches a form that is extremely effective and widespread   (Perhaps It then tends to stabilize form and a process of adaptation between host population(s) and pathogen begins .) 

Globally, we already have numerous strains of which the _____ has been gaining preeminent global position  ...  

I don’t know whether vaccines were based on the increasingly dominant strain(s) or off the more common strains back last winter-spring, or ideally both - but possibility that antibodies developed in response to a Spring Covid strain did not seem to help significantly against Summer Covid strain concerns me.

However, we don’t really even know that.

Having virus Specific Antibodies is  not like being surrounded by a plexiglass complete bubble.

Though I think some people may imagine that a vaccine makes an invisible magic-shield-like protection outside of oneself. 

Virus can still be breathed in, or enter eyes or mouth directly,  or get to mucous membranes from hands —perhaps transfer other ways. 

Antibodies don’t stop the virus from entering body, rather they potentially allow the host to mount an antibody based defense. Possibly the people with second symptomatic infection did mount a defense. Maybe it would have been worse illness without the antibodies from first illness.   Or maybe it became too strong a host response and a worse illness for some reason like immune system overreaction.  Or maybe the host encountered much more virus the second time. Or...               I don’t know. And  I don’t think at this point scientists know either. 

 

What I think we do know:

< prior virus infection is likely to stop later illness from the same or very similar virus infection by allowing a strong antibody type reaction sooner than if the body had to develop antibodies de novo >

 

It does not mean that virus has not entered the body or body cells. The opposite. Antibodies (whether developed from prior infection or from vaccine) so far as we know only work once the pathogen *has* entered the body. Thus also at least some proportion of people “immune” via adaptive immunity (antibodies) are likely to have enough virus to measure on a test of infection and some may have enough virus and/or enough immune response  to be symptomatically sick  — especially in an illness where “sick” seems significantly to be from the immune response

. 

Edited October 15, 2020 by Pen

[Pen]

@Ausmumof3 is a long reply like above readable or does it just cause eyes to go glassy and should I try to shorten it?

 

[ktgrok]

Not liking that upward trend recently here..sigh. We opened bars again, took away all restrictions on restaurants, and the Governor made some order that local areas cannot enforce mask mandates.  

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/individual-states/florida

[TCB]

5 minutes ago, ktgrok said:

Not liking that upward trend recently here..sigh. We opened bars again, took away all restrictions on restaurants, and the Governor made some order that local areas cannot enforce mask mandates.  

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/individual-states/florida

Sounds like he’s on Team Herd Immunity.

I feel despair myself. We have so many patients we can’t do all that we want to, we just have to survive and do the best we can. It is incredibly depressing and disheartening and also traumatizing.

[ktgrok]

2 minutes ago, TCB said:

Sounds like he’s on Team Herd Immunity.

I feel despair myself. We have so many patients we can’t do all that we want to, we just have to survive and do the best we can. It is incredibly depressing and disheartening and also traumatizing.

Well, he's on team "do what the president wants" in the hopes of earning political favor, so..yeah. 

And Im so sorry. Our area got like that several months ago, and I'm afraid we are heading back that way. 

[Melissa in Australia]

Great news from Victoria. 

Today there is just 2 new cases

The strict lockdown is really working

My twins cheered when they heard it.  They are really hoping to go to grandma's and have chocolate milk with her. As soon as restrictions lift.... 

Edited October 15, 2020 by Melissa in Australia

[Ausmumof3]

4 hours ago, Pen said:

@Ausmumof3 is a long reply like above readable or does it just cause eyes to go glassy and should I try to shorten it?

 

No it’s good thank you.  I appreciate the detailed response.

[Pen]

I thought this was a good Medcram — 

https://youtu.be/UzGKqujdTQ8

 

He weighs in on : Daily cases /deaths , masks, vitamin D 

[Ausmumof3]

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.10.15.20209817v1.full.pdf+html
 

The WHO SOLIDARITY trial found no survival or length of hospitalisation benefit for Remdesivir.  (Also no benefit for Lopinavir, hydroxychloroquine or Interferon b1a (sorry no beta symbol on my phone).  
 

this is not overly surprising we already knew the mortality rate for remdesivir was no better and I’m not surprised about the hospitalisation thing either.  

[Ausmumof3]

France has 30,000 cases on worldometer today.  I can’t read the (non English) source to see if there’s any reason but that’s a huge jump.

[Ausmumof3]

[Pen]

DrBeen an hour ago very interesting re reinfection etc issue - it includes an immunity related topic I never heard of before tonight called “antigenic sin” - where apparently innate immunity can be reduced by ... 

 

https://youtu.be/wYh8gTtdLHU

 

[Ausmumof3]

Sorry to add one more to the list of video links today but this is pretty good

 

it is by the local vaccine researcher in Adelaide who has worked on the original SARS1 vaccine.  The part focusing on vaccines starts at around 28 minutes in so if you have limited time that’s a good place to start watching.  The first half is general overview of the world situation now.  It does have a couple of comments on political leaders and herd immunity response so apologies for that but they are very brief.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5xF7NSyQvpU

[Ausmumof3]

Bno: belgium

Belgium reports more than 10,000 new coronavirus cases, biggest increase on record

- New cases: 10,448
- Positivity: 12.7%
- In hospital: 1,949 (+172)
- ICU: 327 (+14)
- Deaths: +49

[RootAnn]

Local media are reporting more than 40 cases of covid traced directly to a high school Homecoming party on Oct 3rd thrown by a parent who organized it because the school's dance was not held. These cases are just among students, I think, not counting any adults the kids infected. This is not my local school, but one about an hour from me.

[Ausmumof3]

Ulcer drug RBC is being suggested as a possible treatment for Covid 

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41564-020-00802-x 

 

its usually used for helicobacter pylori

looks like it’s been tested in cells and in animals but no human testing yet.  

[TravelingChris]

On 10/13/2020 at 5:16 PM, Pen said:

 

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/pdfs/mm6936a5-H.pdf

Odd.

Aside from masks, makes it look like risk increases with more education and no high school diploma is possibly protective. 

 

 

That is a function of who is answering the questions.  It has nothing to do with who actually gets the disease and who actually ends up hospitalized or dead. For example, I answer lots of questions about Covid mask wearing and exposures for both dh and myself.  We both have time to do that.  But the no high school diploma worker with 2 jobs and kids is a lot less likely to have the time or the inclination.

[Pen]

2 minutes ago, TravelingChris said:

That is a function of who is answering the questions.  It has nothing to do with who actually gets the disease and who actually ends up hospitalized or dead. For example, I answer lots of questions about Covid mask wearing and exposures for both dh and myself.  We both have time to do that.  But the no high school diploma worker with 2 jobs and kids is a lot less likely to have the time or the inclination.

 

Maybe so. I did not catch how they were asking—if it was the first ____ people who came into a medical facility with CV19, it could be different (and maybe less likely to miss no high school diploma workers) than if it was random calls or an online voluntary program like Zoe. 

[Laura Corin]

14 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

France has 30,000 cases on worldometer today.  I can’t read the (non English) source to see if there’s any reason but that’s a huge jump.

Send me the link and I can read it for you if it's in French

[TravelingChris]

On 10/14/2020 at 11:40 PM, Ausmumof3 said:

Sorry to pick up on just one thing out of so much but they said with Astra Zeneca that the vaccine has caused a severe reaction called transverse myelitis . I had thought that was not proven to be vaccine related just wondering if that’s since changes and I missed something?

Transverse Myelitis is an autoimmune disease. There was only one person who got it.

I am not all that familiar with it but do know that their is a warning with the Pertussis vaccine about Lupus patients getting it and then getting sicker.  About five or six years ago, we were having widespread pertussis and I also have asthma and on lots of immune suppressants.  So I went ahead and got the shots and yes, went into a bad Lupus flare but I figured that was better than getting Pertussis and ending up hospitalized with breathing issues.

[TravelingChris]

In my state, they are releasing the protocols of who will be getting the vaccines in what order today.  I have no idea if I will be considered high risk or not, because the data about autoimmune susceptibility, immuno suppression issues and other things I have are all over the place.  Like with high blood pressure- if you have it but take medications and control it so it isn't high, are you still high risk?

[Guest]

It's pretty well known that if you have autoimmune disorders, vaccines can trigger a flare. However, my specialist feels that it is worth the risk for me to stay up to date, do a flu shot yearly, etc-because illness will ALSO trigger autoimmune reactions, and at least when we do a vaccine, it is when everything else is stable, so I'm not dealing with a flare on top  of a really bad flu or something like that. 

 

[Ausmumof3]

6 hours ago, TravelingChris said:

Transverse Myelitis is an autoimmune disease. There was only one person who got it.

I am not all that familiar with it but do know that their is a warning with the Pertussis vaccine about Lupus patients getting it and then getting sicker.  About five or six years ago, we were having widespread pertussis and I also have asthma and on lots of immune suppressants.  So I went ahead and got the shots and yes, went into a bad Lupus flare but I figured that was better than getting Pertussis and ending up hospitalized with breathing issues.

I think there was two but the initial one developed into ms and they said it must have been preexisting?  I have to admit I don’t 100pc trust that.  Incidence is usually 4.6 per million people and it has previously been linked to the polio vaccine.  
 

That’s interesting about the pertussis vaccine although I’m sorry it made you unwell.

edited to add the link to the article mentioning the second case

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/19/health/astrazeneca-vaccine-safety-blueprints.html#click=https://t.co/TzC8PJfXxs
 

I believe the Johnson and Johnson’s also used adenovirus as a viral vector (did I get that right) like the Astra Zeneca.  And it’s new technology that has never been used in a vaccine before.

Edited October 16, 2020 by Ausmumof3

[Ausmumof3]

6 hours ago, Laura Corin said:

Send me the link and I can read it for you if it's in French

https://www.santepubliquefrance.fr/dossiers/coronavirus-covid-19/coronavirus-chiffres-cles-et-evolution-de-la-covid-19-en-france-et-dans-le-monde
 

It’s here but don’t worry unless you want to and have the spare time.