wuhan - coronavirus

[Ausmumof3]

A woman in the Netherlands has died after confirmed reinfection with Covid.  She was undergoing treatment for cancer and immune compromised so probably doesn’t tell us much about general risk.

[Ausmumof3]

US passed 8 million cases

[Ausmumof3]

interesting read on the IMF report on the economic fallout 

[Ausmumof3]

Bno:

Argentina COVID update:

- New cases: 9,524
- Positivity rate: 68.2%
- New deaths: 318
- In hospital: 28,397 (+99)
- ICU: 4,287 (+50)
 

doesn’t sound like a good situation overall.

[Jean in Newcastle]

5 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Bno:

Argentina COVID update:

- New cases: 9,524
- Positivity rate: 68.2%
- New deaths: 318
- In hospital: 28,397 (+99)
- ICU: 4,287 (+50)
 

doesn’t sound like a good situation overall.

That’s a huge positivity rate 

[Not_a_Number]

5 hours ago, Bootsie said:

Are those numbers really for reaching contacts?  Because numbers I have seen for most parts of the country are less than 50% of people are ever reached, that would be far above the norm.  If they are really able to do this, what are they doing differently from other states.  

NY isn’t doing quite as well, but it’s reaching well over half, I think.

[Ausmumof3]

Johnson and Johnson have paused their vaccine trials due to an unexplained illness in one participant.

[Pen]

46 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Johnson and Johnson have paused their vaccine trials due to an unexplained illness in one participant.

 

https://www.jnj.com/our-company/johnson-johnson-temporarily-pauses-all-dosing-in-our-janssen-covid-19-vaccine-candidate-clinical-trials

 

 

[Pen]

Dr Been on the structure of SARs2 — could be interesting IMO for some elementary school students.  And for adults. He uses published electron microscopy photos, computer simulations, and his own drawings 

https://youtu.be/FD0fhZB3bUE

Edited October 13, 2020 by Pen

[Jaybee]

Okay, I'm in a rush right now and can't look it up. Was it in this thread that someone posted the CDC's thing on masks? My supervisor's supervisor (who is indirectly my boss too) is very much anti-mask. I am the only person in my workplace who wears one. (I don't wear it in my office, but I do wear it in general areas and in staff meetings.) I know it irritates him, as well as his very-verbal-on-the-subject admin asst, when people wear them. He just gloatingly posted that link on his fb page. Ugh. I don't say anything to anybody about how they should be wearing masks, I don't criticize them, etc. I just quietly wear mine. And a couple of weeks ago, I did stop the admin asst from going on another of her diatribes about why she thinks they don't do any good, etc., etc. I just told her we disagree, and I didn't want to talk about it, and moved to a different subject. This is mostly just a vent. Staff meeting today. He'll probably bring it up. While I'm sitting there, the only one wearing one. Ugh. Ugh. Ugh. 

[Ausmumof3]

8 minutes ago, Jaybee said:

Okay, I'm in a rush right now and can't look it up. Was it in this thread that someone posted the CDC's thing on masks? My supervisor's supervisor (who is indirectly my boss too) is very much anti-mask. I am the only person in my workplace who wears one. (I don't wear it in my office, but I do wear it in general areas and in staff meetings.) I know it irritates him, as well as his very-verbal-on-the-subject admin asst, when people wear them. He just gloatingly posted that link on his fb page. Ugh. I don't say anything to anybody about how they should be wearing masks, I don't criticize them, etc. I just quietly wear mine. And a couple of weeks ago, I did stop the admin asst from going on another of her diatribes about why she thinks they don't do any good, etc., etc. I just told her we disagree, and I didn't want to talk about it, and moved to a different subject. This is mostly just a vent. Staff meeting today. He'll probably bring it up. While I'm sitting there, the only one wearing one. Ugh. Ugh. Ugh. 

I’m not sure, is this what you are looking for?

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/prevent-getting-sick/cloth-face-cover-guidance.html
 

I’m sorry.  It would be easier if they were being respectful to you even when they don’t agree.

[Ausmumof3]

5 minutes ago, fifiruth said:

It sounds like a lot, but keep in mind that it’s just  2.24% of the population.

Also, 2.5% of the 8 million have died, leaving a 97.5% survival rate. The deaths are each heartbreaking, but the quoting of cases gives a false sense of overwhelming peril for everyone. 

I’ve been tracking it since forever and probably will keep doing it.  I’m aware of the survival rates.  I’m aware that many cases are never tested or counted.  
 

Did you know that 8,000,000 people is almost a fourth of the population of my entire country?

[Ausmumof3]

8 hours ago, Pen said:

Dr Been on the structure of SARs2 — could be interesting IMO for some elementary school students.  And for adults. He uses published electron microscopy photos, computer simulations, and his own drawings 

https://youtu.be/FD0fhZB3bUE

We’re doing DNA this term so might throw this in 

[Ausmumof3]

8 minutes ago, fifiruth said:

Yes, I do realize that 8,000,000 seems like a lot to you, but I so often see numbers quoted, and I truly don’t think that people realize just how huge the country is, nor how many people are here. 

It seems like you are constantly posting a count of the number of cases, which isn’t a good reflection of the situation here, that’s all. 

 

I’m aware that you have a population of 330,000,000 or so. I’m not sure why you need to tell me that?

[TCB]

2 hours ago, fifiruth said:

It sounds like a lot, but keep in mind that it’s just  2.24% of the population.

Also, 2.5% of the 8 million have died, leaving a 97.5% survival rate. The deaths are each heartbreaking, but the quoting of cases gives a false sense of overwhelming peril for everyone. 

I don’t find 2.5% to be a comforting figure when you think how many deaths there could be as this spreads more and more. That’s a lot of potential deaths. 

[TCB]

1 hour ago, fifiruth said:

Yes, I do realize that 8,000,000 seems like a lot to you, but I so often see numbers quoted, and I truly don’t think that people realize just how huge the country is, nor how many people are here. 

It seems like you are constantly posting a count of the number of cases, which isn’t a good reflection of the situation here, that’s all. 

 

What is your assessment of the situation here? My assessment, as an ICU nurse in an ICU that is struggling mightily to cope right now with the number of Covid patients we’re having to try and help, is that the situation is pretty dire. I know that is not everywhere in this country but it has been so in many places before now and may well be so in many more places soon if we can’t get it under control.

[hopeallgoeswell]

6 hours ago, Jaybee said:

Okay, I'm in a rush right now and can't look it up. Was it in this thread that someone posted the CDC's thing on masks? My supervisor's supervisor (who is indirectly my boss too) is very much anti-mask. I am the only person in my workplace who wears one. (I don't wear it in my office, but I do wear it in general areas and in staff meetings.) I know it irritates him, as well as his very-verbal-on-the-subject admin asst, when people wear them. He just gloatingly posted that link on his fb page. Ugh. I don't say anything to anybody about how they should be wearing masks, I don't criticize them, etc. I just quietly wear mine. And a couple of weeks ago, I did stop the admin asst from going on another of her diatribes about why she thinks they don't do any good, etc., etc. I just told her we disagree, and I didn't want to talk about it, and moved to a different subject. This is mostly just a vent. Staff meeting today. He'll probably bring it up. While I'm sitting there, the only one wearing one. Ugh. Ugh. Ugh. 

Any of these?

 https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/pdfs/mm6936a5-H.pdf

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2768532

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6928e2.htm?s_cid=mm6928e2_w

[kbutton]

9 minutes ago, fifiruth said:

Why did you post that the U.S. death count was up to 200,000?  To make some kind of point that the situation is horrible and out of control here? 

 

Some of us appreciate having the mile markers posted as we blaze right on by them. What point are you trying to make that you think is going to persuade those of us who are concerned over the numbers>

[OH_Homeschooler]

23 minutes ago, fifiruth said:

Why did you post that the U.S. death count was up to 200,000?  To make some kind of point that the situation is horrible and out of control here? 

 

@Ausmumof3has been posting all kinds of updates throughout this entire thread. For you to focus on this one suggests to me that you are looking to be offended and are looking for a fight.

I have appreciated all of her updates, but I like to know what's happening in general. Not a big fan of burying my head in the sand.

[kbutton]

9 minutes ago, fifiruth said:

I jumped in on the thread while it was current and live. No ulterior motive in commenting on her 200,000 post. 

Thanks for clarifying.

[OH_Homeschooler]

10 minutes ago, fifiruth said:

Looking for a fight??? My goodness. That was a totally inaccurate assumption. Unfortunately, we can not hear each other’s tone of voice, so it would be better for you to assume the best and not the worst! We’re just having a conversation here.

I jumped in on the thread while it was current and live. No ulterior motive in commenting on her 200,000 post. 

 

It's hardly an assumption when I see what you've been saying all around the chat boards. I know your point of view. This assumption was not based on just one post. 

[OH_Homeschooler]

Just now, fifiruth said:

I know better than to try to persuade anyone one here, but I think that adding another point of view, or take on a situation should be welcome and not attacked.

You are the one who assumed the worst. You asked @ausmum3 if she was trying "to make some kind of point that the situation is horrible and out of control here?"

Why would you assume that someone stating a basic fact is trying to mock America? Especially in the context of all the facts that she's posted both before AND after that post. To me your comment is not especially welcoming. YOU are assuming the ulterior motive. 

 

[OH_Homeschooler]

3 minutes ago, fifiruth said:

Yeah, it’s a different point of view from yours. You make it sound evil.

(shaking my head)

 

Never mind. No point.

Edited October 13, 2020 by OH_Homeschooler

[TCB]

56 minutes ago, fifiruth said:

I don’t think that it’s healthy to think in terms of:

what if, might, could, possibly, may, potentially, probably,

expected, projected, anticipated

because it’s better to stay in the moment and work with known stats.

Like you said in your other post it’s different perspectives I guess. I personally think that the real danger with this virus is the number of people who need hospital care. The death rate is definitely not great either, but that too can be worse because of the volume of hospitalizations. What I’m trying to say is that I am out here in the middle of rural America and up until a little while ago most people around here could have said exactly what you said about not knowing anyone with Covid. We were not very careful around here, no mask mandate, other than some stores requesting them, opened back up pretty much like normal after a couple of weeks lockdown (not a very severe one), schools opened in person etc. Now we are having a really hard time with it and that could happen anywhere.

I know I have a different opportunity to see the reality of it, but even when we had very few patients I could look at what was going on other places and see what could happen. I don’t quite understand why it’s so hard to look at what’s going on elsewhere. And just wanted to add that the extent of my media consumption is a daily look at the BBC and listening to podcasts from medical and scientific people / organizations, and what I read on this board. So we can still see what’s going on without having to rely on the media.

[Ausmumof3]

1 hour ago, fifiruth said:

Why did you post that the U.S. death count was up to 200,000?  To make some kind of point that the situation is horrible and out of control here? 

 

I post milestones for many different countries here.  Including my own.  I’m sorry if it upset you but it’s not meant as an attack or anything.  

[Jaybee]

9 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

I’m not sure, is this what you are looking for?

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/prevent-getting-sick/cloth-face-cover-guidance.html
 

I’m sorry.  It would be easier if they were being respectful to you even when they don’t agree.

No, it was a recent one in the past day or so about 70% of people who get covid have worn masks or something like that.

[hopeallgoeswell]

On 10/12/2020 at 3:38 AM, TCB said:

I must confess that I did not watch the whole thing, but after the start I just laughed out loud, and not in a good way. This thing is not over with yet. I don’t know where you are but you seem to have down played this thing all along. Maybe nothing much has gone on in your area yet, or you haven’t experienced it, and I sincerely hope you don’t, but from where I’m sitting right now, this virus is nothing to be trifled with.

I have not down played this, nor have I made it into a giant.  It is a virus.  People are dying.  It dies out in one place and moves onto another.  I'm outside of Seattle so we have had cases, to include a spike in the summer, which stayed pretty high for 6-8 weeks.  We are at the start of another one right now even though we have been fairly restricted since March, 100% masking in public since July 7, and no in-person school since mid-March.  My county is still under 20 deaths recorded with covid out of a total population of 300,000.  

I understand that a person's experiences can color their perceptions.  Being in the ICU, you are going to see the worst of the worst.  I have family members and close friends in the medical field in different parts of the U.S.; they are not seeing what you are seeing.  My husband manages 100s of people; he is not seeing what you are seeing.  What we are seeing are hospitals with few to no covid patients, and people testing positive via PCR are having no symptoms or mild symptoms for a few days.  You are seeing deaths of people with covid.  My dental hygienist's son has been a paramedic for 14 years and is changing professions because of the increase in suicides he's been called to since March.  There has got to be a middle ground where we can look at the big picture, not just positive cases/deaths from this one virus.  Also, it seems that lockdowns, face coverings, and a vaccine with some amount of efficacy, even if it doesn't prevent asymptomatic spread, are what is being focused on.  Unless one concentrates on human interest stories, people with healthy immune systems are clearing this easier.  If "an ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure," why are we not emphasizing health improvements since people with diabetes and obesity are having a higher rate of complications if they get covid?  It is another layer of protection we could add right now, keeping more people out of your ICU.

You may want to skip this part because it is about the video I posted.  It does go on to show how deaths fluctuate from year to year, having relatively high numbers after a year with relatively low numbers; it's cyclic.  The countries that had more excess deaths last year are showing less excess deaths this year.  The countries with a negative number of excess deaths last year are showing a higher number of excess deaths this year.  Excess deaths, looked at over a number of years or decades, are very telling and shape a more complete picture.  Another thing it looked at was cases v. deaths.  Most deaths happened in the spring even though case numbers have been rising.  

[Pen]

1 hour ago, fifiruth said:

Why did you post that the U.S. death count was up to 200,000?  To make some kind of point that the situation is horrible and out of control here? 

 

 

I have tried to stay open to diverse points of view.

 I have also objected to attacks from multiple perspectives, and including when recently some apparently were against me. 

@Ausmumof3 and I and some others have been posting numbers updates since ... months back. Including when Australia and US were both in single or double digits. 

Can you offer whatever perspective you want without reading an ulterior motive onto another board member? 

[hopeallgoeswell]

3 minutes ago, Jaybee said:

No, it was a recent one in the past day or so about 70% of people who get covid have worn masks or something like that.

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/pdfs/mm6936a5-H.pdf

[TCB]

56 minutes ago, fifiruth said:

I know better than to try to persuade anyone one here, but I think that adding another point of view, or take on a situation should be welcome and not attacked.

I’m open to being persuaded with facts and welcome them. I find opinion, that doesn’t match with the facts I’m seeing, to not be persuasive. I think there is a very real danger of what we are experiencing here happening just about anywhere so am probably over vehement in my replies. Honestly it feels like denying reality or at least highly possible reality. 

[Pen]

 

3 minutes ago, hopeallgoeswell said:

You may want to skip this part because it is about the video I posted.  It does go on to show how deaths fluctuate from year to year, having relatively high numbers after a year with relatively low numbers; it's cyclic.  The countries that had more excess deaths last year are showing less excess deaths this year.  The countries with a negative number of excess deaths last year are showing a higher number of excess deaths this year.  Excess deaths, looked at over a number of years or decades, are very telling and shape a more complete picture.  Another thing it looked at was cases v. deaths.  Most deaths happened in the spring even though case numbers have been rising.  

 

I have wondered if in some cases high death numbers could partly reflect a population not already dead from   something else.  

So that possibly sometimes when “they” think that prior high infection rates with __ (say Dengue) might oddly give immunity from SARS2, maybe it meant that the prior illness had already killed off the most vulnerable in the population, so fewer deaths for that reason 

 

That might also apply in a reverse way to a population that has a  relatively high number of people living woth high risk factors (like US or UK perhaps), where nothing like dengue has gone through and killed off the vulnerable, that there might be a higher death rate if an infectious disease got going. 

[Jaybee]

17 minutes ago, hopeallgoeswell said:

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/pdfs/mm6936a5-H.pdf

Yes, it's this one. For some reason, I thought it was something new.

ETA that I didn't notice the date--I thought it had just come out.

Edited October 13, 2020 by Jaybee

[hopeallgoeswell]

7 minutes ago, Pen said:

 

 

I have wondered if in some cases high death numbers could partly reflect a population not already dead from   something else.  

So that possibly sometimes when “they” think that prior high infection rates with __ (say Dengue) might oddly give immunity from SARS2, maybe it meant that the prior illness had already killed off the most vulnerable in the population, so fewer deaths for that reason 

 

That might also apply in a reverse way to a population that has a  relatively high number of people living woth high risk factors (like US or UK perhaps), where nothing like dengue has gone through and killed off the vulnerable, that there might be a higher death rate if an infectious disease got going. 

Nature does what nature does.  In some respects, she's a cruel mistress.  It is really pretty here now with the leaves changing and falling, so she's not cruel in all respects :).

[Pen]

 

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/pdfs/mm6936a5-H.pdf

Odd.

Aside from masks, makes it look like risk increases with more education and no high school diploma is possibly protective. 

 

 

[Ausmumof3]

7 cases for Vic and sadly 5 deaths today.  
 

currently I think the rolling average has to stay below 10 for restrictions to be lifted.  Norman Swann on Coronacast yesterday was suggesting making the metric should be changed to the number of cases of unidentified origin.  Because it’s very difficult to get and maintain below that handful of cases a day and specifically in hospital settings. He is fairly cautious so if he is suggesting the restriction guidelines might need to be changed they probably really do.  Also apparently COVID wards are still not all getting fit tested for the n95s.  It seems pretty ridiculous that they locked down the while of vic (and we’re talking a pretty solid lockdown) no going outside a 5km radius and 1 hour outdoors per day for exercise 😬. And didn’t make sure they had the health care PPE end of things sorted out.  And healthcare workers have been asking for fit testing for months now.

[Ausmumof3]

11 minutes ago, Pen said:

 

 

I have wondered if in some cases high death numbers could partly reflect a population not already dead from   something else.  

So that possibly sometimes when “they” think that prior high infection rates with __ (say Dengue) might oddly give immunity from SARS2, maybe it meant that the prior illness had already killed off the most vulnerable in the population, so fewer deaths for that reason 

 

That might also apply in a reverse way to a population that has a  relatively high number of people living woth high risk factors (like US or UK perhaps), where nothing like dengue has gone through and killed off the vulnerable, that there might be a higher death rate if an infectious disease got going. 

I think this as well.  This country hits countries with good health systems harder in some senses because they have more vulnerable people that have survived for longer. 

[TCB]

24 minutes ago, hopeallgoeswell said:

I have not down played this, nor have I made it into a giant.  It is a virus.  People are dying.  It dies out in one place and moves onto another.  I'm outside of Seattle so we have had cases, to include a spike in the summer, which stayed pretty high for 6-8 weeks.  We are at the start of another one right now even though we have been fairly restricted since March, 100% masking in public since July 7, and no in-person school since mid-March.  My county is still under 20 deaths recorded with covid 

You may want to skip this part because it is about the video I posted.  It does go on to show how deaths fluctuate from year to year, having relatively high numbers after a year with relatively low numbers; it's cyclic.  The countries that had more excess deaths last year are showing less excess deaths this year.  The countries with a negative number of excess deaths last year are showing a higher number of excess deaths this year.  Excess deaths, looked at over a number of years or decades, are very telling and shape a more complete picture.  Another thing it looked at was cases v. deaths.  Most deaths happened in the spring even though case numbers have been rising.  

I erased the end of your first paragraph by mistake, but it sounds like all those measures, masks and restrictions, really do work then as you have so few cases near you. We have most definitely not had those measures here.

As far as your last paragraph - I’ve seen many epidemiologists say that looking at excess deaths is the best thing to look at to assess the effects of a pandemic, but it sounds like your saying that isn’t correct.

[Pen]

Did Jair  Bolsonaro have CV19 more than once? Something on news feed so indicated 

[hopeallgoeswell]

1 minute ago, TCB said:

I erased the end of your first paragraph by mistake, but it sounds like all those measures, masks and restrictions, really do work then as you have so few cases near you. We have most definitely not had those measures here.

As far as your last paragraph - I’ve seen many epidemiologists say that looking at excess deaths is the best thing to look at to assess the effects of a pandemic, but it sounds like your saying that isn’t correct.

We haven't had "so few cases" near me, just few deaths.  People are only wearing face coverings in stores.  People are still having parties at their houses with no face coverings.  They are still eating in restaurants with no face coverings.  Life didn't really slow down here except for the last part of March.  I think the low deaths might be because the population here is relativity active/healthy and there are low minority and aging populations, but that is just me speculating.

I *am* saying that we should be looking at excess deaths, not just covid deaths.  From my post: "Excess deaths, looked at over a number of years or decades, are very telling and shape a more complete picture."

[Pen]

24 minutes ago, TCB said:

I erased the end of your first paragraph by mistake, but it sounds like all those measures, masks and restrictions, really do work then as you have so few cases near you. We have most definitely not had those measures here.

As far as your last paragraph - I’ve seen many epidemiologists say that looking at excess deaths is the best thing to look at to assess the effects of a pandemic, but it sounds like your saying that isn’t correct.

 

You both seem to be saying to look at excess deaths. 

 

Have you shared where  your “here” is without measures and with rising problems in hospital? 

 

Our “here” was doing quite well through summer — but now has rising cases despite lots of measures.   

Edited October 13, 2020 by Pen

[Ausmumof3]

11 minutes ago, Pen said:

 

You both seem to be saying to look at excess deaths. 

 

Have you shared where  your “here” is without measures and with rising problems in hospital? 

 

Our “here” was doing quite well through summer — but now has rising cases despite lots of measures.   

There seems to be a seasonal aspect to this virus I think?  Not the biggest or major driver but one factor.  The new study that showed longer surface survival times showed that was much more significant at lower temperatures.  At around 30-40 degrees it really dropped off.  It may just be coincidence though.

[Ausmumof3]

24 minutes ago, fifiruth said:

Sorry, I did not mean to sound upset. 

Good, I didn’t mean to upset anyone 😞 

[hopeallgoeswell]

6 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

There seems to be a seasonal aspect to this virus I think?  Not the biggest or major driver but one factor.  The new study that showed longer surface survival times showed that was much more significant at lower temperatures.  At around 30-40 degrees it really dropped off.  It may just be coincidence though.

In the video I posted, it explained why southern places (or maybe it was, more specifically, places close the the equator) get not only different shaped virus curves but also different timing as to when in the year viruses tend to hit the hardest. Places like the U.S. that are so spread out tend to get one sharper spike in the north and then a smaller, flatter spike in the south later in the year. Hence, we don't really get a "second wave," it's just the same virus moving to a different location.  I am paraphrasing and not using scientific language like the video did, but hopefully I got the point across 🙂. 

[Ausmumof3]

Just now, hopeallgoeswell said:

In the video I posted, it explained why southern places (or maybe it was, more specifically, places close the the equator) get not only different shaped virus curves but also different timing as to when in the year viruses tend to hit the hardest. Places like the U.S. that are so spread out tend to get one sharper spike in the north and then a smaller, flatter spike in the south later in the year. Hence, we don't really get a "second wave," it's just the same virus moving to a different location.  I am paraphrasing and not using scientific language like the video did, but hopefully I got the point across 🙂. 

Interesting.

cant watch now as I’m supervising math but will try later.

i have been looking at India’s curve and it was steep up and looking like going steeply down with a sharp peak.  Would that fit with the theory.

[Ausmumof3]

Eli Lilly have paused their monoclonal antibody trial apparently.  It’s not clear why at the moment.  
 

from CNN 

It said the trial's Data Safety Monitoring Board (DSMB), an independent group of medical experts who monitor clinical trials, recommended the pause.

"The trial, evaluating Lilly's investigational neutralizing antibody as a treatment for COVID-19 in hospitalized patients, is sponsored by the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), part of the National Institutes of Health (NIH). Lilly is supportive of the decision by the independent DSMB to cautiously ensure the safety of the patients participating in this study," the company said in the statement.

[hopeallgoeswell]

41 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

As Interesting.

cant watch now as I’m supervising math but will try later.

i have been looking at India’s curve and it was steep up and looking like going steeply down with a sharp peak.  Would that fit with the theory.

The guy in the video was using the term Gompertz curve, which was new to me; I was aware of Farr's curve. It looks like Gompertz curve is not exponential. Maybe because India is so densely populated with less than ideal living conditions still in some places, the curve was sharper?  I speculate it's because, like what was said upthread, that the medically fragile people are removed from the pool first and then what's mostly left is a population that can handle the illness, so herd immunity is reached?

Edited October 14, 2020 by hopeallgoeswell

[Pen]

2 hours ago, fifiruth said:

I definitely don’t want to come across as attacking you nor anyone else. That’s certainly not my intention. 

I’ll just move along and leave you all to your conversation.

 

 

 

I do not recall feeling attacked by you. Did not mean to suggest that. 

I am interested in hearing different views. 

 

[sbgrace]

2 hours ago, Jaybee said:

Yes, it's this one. For some reason, I thought it was something new.

ETA that I didn't notice the date--I thought it had just come out.

This  study is going around in my social circle right now too. The study really isn't about masks. Yet it was publicized as evidence that masks don't work in some news sources lately (not sure why...) and is coming into my facebook feeds as a result. 

I'm sorry you have to work with that kind of hostility. 

2 hours ago, Pen said:

 

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/pdfs/mm6936a5-H.pdf

Odd.

Aside from masks, makes it look like risk increases with more education and no high school diploma is possibly protective. 

 

 

"Findings from a case-control investigation of symptomatic outpatients from 11 U.S. health care facilities found that close contact with persons with known COVID-19 or going to locations that offer on-site eating and drinking options were associated with COVID-19 positivity. Adults with positive SARS-CoV-2 test results were approximately twice as likely to have reported dining at a restaurant than were those with negative SARS-CoV-2 test results." 

 

[Pen]

1 hour ago, hopeallgoeswell said:

The guy in the video was using the term Gompertz curve, which was new to me; I was aware of Farr's curve. It looks like Gompertz curve is not exponential. Maybe because India is so densely populated with less than ideal living conditions still in some places, the curve was sharper?  I speculate it's because, like what was said upthread, that the medically fragile people are removed from the pool first and then what's mostly left is a population that can handle the illness, so herd immunity is reached?

 

If  dealing with deaths rather than cases, that might be different than “immunity”—but in times past there was probably less (or maybe no) testing of people to know who was carrying illness in a mild form during a pandemic.  

So it may be that as with populations where lots of vulnerable people were already killed by past infection that swept through, that we are seeing statistically high cases in some developed countries that correspond more to testing capabilities and actions .  While some second or “third world” countries may appear lower both due to less testing or recording and also people already killed off.  

Plus possibly the problem of how statistics get counted in the died from vs died with CV19 issue where it isn’t handled consistently between countries even when relatively even in health care and testing capacity, population age, etc. 

 

[Pen]

8 minutes ago, sbgrace said:

This  study is going around in my social circle right now too. The study really isn't about masks. Yet it was publicized as evidence that masks don't work in some news sources lately (not sure why...) and is coming into my facebook feeds as a result. 

I'm sorry you have to work with that kind of hostility. 

"Findings from a case-control investigation of symptomatic outpatients from 11 U.S. health care facilities found that close contact with persons with known COVID-19 or going to locations that offer on-site eating and drinking options were associated with COVID-19 positivity. Adults with positive SARS-CoV-2 test results were approximately twice as likely to have reported dining at a restaurant than were those with negative SARS-CoV-2 test results." 

 

 

Are you meaning that people with more education would be more likely to go to restaurants and bars and other places associated with high levels of SARS2?

Even more specific than that could be that all outbreaks amongst college kids are going to correlate significantly with having finished high school .