wuhan - coronavirus

[hopeallgoeswell]

3 minutes ago, Pen said:

 

I think so.  Not unique in history, but an ethics consideration. Even if people volunteer

it seems especially tricky if it were randomized with placebo

 

 

Do you know if all of the potential vaccines are being tested against an inert placebo in all phases?  In most other vaccines, there isn't a true control, just another vaccine (different type, different brand, or previous version) or the ingredients of the vaccine being tested minus the pathogen.  It would give us very solid data and a clear picture (e.g. short-term side effects and efficacy) if a true inert placebo is used and a challenge study is done.  If that is the case, more people might be willing to get it.

[Meriwether]

Dd17's first test came back today - negative.

[Pen]

1 hour ago, hopeallgoeswell said:

Do you know if all of the potential vaccines are being tested against an inert placebo in all phases?  In most other vaccines, there isn't a true control, just another vaccine (different type, different brand, or previous version) or the ingredients of the vaccine being tested minus the pathogen.  It would give us very solid data and a clear picture (e.g. short-term side effects and efficacy) if a true inert placebo is used and a challenge study is done.  If that is the case, more people might be willing to get it.

 

When I read some study protocols it looked like some were using saline/inert as control and some were using another vaccine. I can’t recall which was which, nor for sure what was for which phase. 

 

[EmilyGF]

3 hours ago, hopeallgoeswell said:

Do you know if all of the potential vaccines are being tested against an inert placebo in all phases?  In most other vaccines, there isn't a true control, just another vaccine (different type, different brand, or previous version) or the ingredients of the vaccine being tested minus the pathogen.  It would give us very solid data and a clear picture (e.g. short-term side effects and efficacy) if a true inert placebo is used and a challenge study is done.  If that is the case, more people might be willing to get it.

The reason an alternative vaccine is given is so that people don't know which group they are in; often vaccines cause some level of inflammation. If the "control" group knows they are control because of lack of inflammation, it ceases to be a double-blind study and the information loses a lot of value. 

I always get an RSI (repetitive stress injury) flare up in my wrists for a day or two post-flu vaccine. Some years I get mild back ache, too. If I had a shot and had nothing happen, I would know it was just saline.

Emily

[Pen]

 

Dr Been reviewed some very small but interesting studies on mouthwash / gargles and nasal rinses related to CV19.

 

[Ausmumof3]

6 hours ago, hopeallgoeswell said:

Do you know if all of the potential vaccines are being tested against an inert placebo in all phases?  In most other vaccines, there isn't a true control, just another vaccine (different type, different brand, or previous version) or the ingredients of the vaccine being tested minus the pathogen.  It would give us very solid data and a clear picture (e.g. short-term side effects and efficacy) if a true inert placebo is used and a challenge study is done.  If that is the case, more people might be willing to get it.

I think Emily kind of already answered this but I think the issue with placebo for vaccine is typically people get a mild reaction from the vaccine that they don’t get from saline so it’s very easy for people to figure out.  I’ve seen a couple of people who participated in trials saying they are pretty sure they got the saline because of no effect.  
 

I think ideally if you had time after the safety trials you’d also want to do a comparison trial between the top three or so that get through to see which is best (or possibly which combination).  But we probably won’t have that luxury with this:

[Ausmumof3]

5 cases today in Vic.  One has put a public housing building with 500 people into quarantine.  And there’s a kid who attended school contagious for two days resulting in two schools being locked down.  Both very reminiscent of the beginning of the outbreak.  Hopefully doesn’t lead to anything more.  
 

I see according to a Chinese news site that my state is planning to bring Chinese students back in.  I haven’t seen this from anything official locally.  I suspect it will be somewhat unpopular.

[Ausmumof3]

I’m also seeing reports that Israel’s outbreak is well on the way down again and was wondering how JennyD is going and hoping she’s ok. 

[RootAnn]

I think @JennyD & her family decided to leave Israel around the time of the last lockdown. 

[Pen]

 

9 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

I think ideally if you had time after the safety trials you’d also want to do a comparison trial between the top three or so that get through to see which is best (or possibly which combination).  But we probably won’t have that luxury with this:

 

I think maybe actual use and experience from that becomes that comparison.  

If one or some end up giving much longer protection with equivalent safety features for example that could take years to figure out. 

It may also end up being one that isn’t yet in phase 3 that turns out best, so maybe people use the first available to them initially, but then follow up a year or two later  with a different one. 

 

[EmilyGF]

1 hour ago, Pen said:

 

 

I think maybe actual use and experience from that becomes that comparison.  

If one or some end up giving much longer protection with equivalent safety features for example that could take years to figure out. 

It may also end up being one that isn’t yet in phase 3 that turns out best, so maybe people use the first available to them initially, but then follow up a year or two later  with a different one. 

 

My impression is that multiple vaccines will be in use for a while because even the very-scaled-up mega manufacture for most companies means only 100 million doses per year. I think it'll take a few years to see which is most effective, too, since that'll be looking for smaller, longer-term, effects. 

[BeachGal]

The FDA is discussing the vaccines generally (not individually) right now and you may listen to the meeting if you’d like. Search for “fda October 22”.

AstraZeneca and Johnson & Johnson are expected to resume within a week or so. 

[AmandaVT]

14 hours ago, Pen said:

 

Dr Been reviewed some very small but interesting studies on mouthwash / gargles and nasal rinses related to CV19.

 

Oh interesting - any good results? One thing my dentist office is having everyone do is gargle with mouthwash before opening your mouth for the dentist/hygienist. I wasn't sure if they were just trying to be as safe as possible and throwing everything they can think of at COVID  

[AmandaVT]

14 hours ago, Pen said:

 

Dr Been reviewed some very small but interesting studies on mouthwash / gargles and nasal rinses related to CV19.

 

.

Edited October 22, 2020 by AmandaVT
double post

[ktgrok]

1 hour ago, AmandaVT said:

Oh interesting - any good results? One thing my dentist office is having everyone do is gargle with mouthwash before opening your mouth for the dentist/hygienist. I wasn't sure if they were just trying to be as safe as possible and throwing everything they can think of at COVID  

Ive wondered at how this really helps...I know I try to breathe out of my nose, not my mouth, when the dentist is working on me. 

[Ausmumof3]

Worldometer yesterday - 478,000 cases worldwide 

[Ausmumof3]

https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN27807L?__twitter_impression=true
 

IMF raises concern over instability across Latin America in the wake of the pandemic 

[Laura Corin]

New structure for restrictions in Scotland. We are roughly at level 2. Glasgow and Edinburgh are roughly at level 3. Positivity overall is around 9%

BBC News - Covid restrictions: How will Scotland's five-level system work? https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-54659056

 

 

Edited October 23, 2020 by Laura Corin

[Pen]

nm Just figured out what you meant!

 

Edited October 23, 2020 by Pen

[BeachGal]

In the US, AstraZeneca and Johnson & Johnson have resumed. AZ’s delay was supposedly caused by the FDA wanting all of the Oxford patient data reformatted into a particular format. J&J paused after a participant had a stroke but that was determined to be caused by something else.

[Ausmumof3]

Good news on the vaccine trial resumptions.

US had a record day in worldometer with 81,000,000 new cases.  
 

vic bounced back up to 7 yesterday.  They are trying to trace the school cluster.  There’s a bit of controversy I think because the family whose kid went to school are being shamed and there’s questions over whether they understood the health departments advice or not.  Health department claimed there were family members with perfect English but family didn’t seem to be offered a translator.  Hopefully this can be dealt with quickly.

The AFL grand final happened in Qld (usually it’s in Vic) with a crowd of 30,000.  I’m torn between happy it could happen and worried it’ll come back to bite us.

[Ausmumof3]

(Reuters) - France on Saturday reported 45,422 new confirmed coronavirus cases over the past 24 hours, a new record, after reporting 42,032 on Friday.

[JennyD]

On 10/22/2020 at 7:25 AM, Ausmumof3 said:

I’m also seeing reports that Israel’s outbreak is well on the way down again and was wondering how JennyD is going and hoping she’s ok. 

 

On 10/22/2020 at 7:39 AM, RootAnn said:

I think @JennyD & her family decided to leave Israel around the time of the last lockdown. 

Thanks for thinking of me!  I've been busy and not around the boards much these days.  Yes, we left Israel in mid-September, right before the second lockdown.  We bought our tickets before the lockdown was announced; we couldn't stay indefinitely and since it was pretty clear that the situation was deteriorating, we decided it was time to pull the cord.

The long flights back were stressful but we were able to book seats with no immediate neighbors, wore KN95s and face shields, and opened the vents all the way.  We had quick snacks when others were not eating (i.e., didn't have their masks off) but mostly didn't eat much.  DS15 had been violently airsick all the way to Israel and was extremely worried about getting sick on the way home again, esp given the circumstances, but the Israeli OTC meds worked well.   It was fine but I can't imagine traveling by air for anything less than an urgent reason right now. The whole thing was so exhausting.

We miss Israel but it's good to be home, too. Unlimited hot water and amazon delivery are beautiful things 🙂  

 

[Ausmumof3]

30 minutes ago, JennyD said:

 

Thanks for thinking of me!  I've been busy and not around the boards much these days.  Yes, we left Israel in mid-September, right before the second lockdown.  We bought our tickets before the lockdown was announced; we couldn't stay indefinitely and since it was pretty clear that the situation was deteriorating, we decided it was time to pull the cord.

The long flights back were stressful but we were able to book seats with no immediate neighbors, wore KN95s and face shields, and opened the vents all the way.  We had quick snacks when others were not eating (i.e., didn't have their masks off) but mostly didn't eat much.  DS15 had been violently airsick all the way to Israel and was extremely worried about getting sick on the way home again, esp given the circumstances, but the Israeli OTC meds worked well.   It was fine but I can't imagine traveling by air for anything less than an urgent reason right now. The whole thing was so exhausting.

We miss Israel but it's good to be home, too. Unlimited hot water and amazon delivery are beautiful things 🙂  

 

I’m glad to hear you made it back safely.

[Ausmumof3]

https://apnews.com/article/virus-outbreak-michael-brown-2dfc5b8a8a097470f9277db821c00ef5
 

hospitalisation for Missouri and possibly other states flawed since oct 17

“Since Tuesday, the Missouri Department of Health and Senior Service’s coronavirus dashboard has posted a message that the total number of patients hospitalized for COVID-19 has been underreported since Oct. 17. The note blamed “challenges entering data” to the portal used by the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services for collecting daily hospitalizations around the country.”

 

 

 

[hopeallgoeswell]

On 10/21/2020 at 7:58 PM, EmilyGF said:

The reason an alternative vaccine is given is so that people don't know which group they are in; often vaccines cause some level of inflammation. If the "control" group knows they are control because of lack of inflammation, it ceases to be a double-blind study and the information loses a lot of value. 

I always get an RSI (repetitive stress injury) flare up in my wrists for a day or two post-flu vaccine. Some years I get mild back ache, too. If I had a shot and had nothing happen, I would know it was just saline.

Emily

Emily, sorry to hear about your RSI after flu shots. 

 

If there isn't a true placebo, then how do we suss out SAEs, both short and long-term?  Isn't that why other pharmaceutical products that go through testing use things such as sugar pills as placebos in their trials?  If a product being tested was suspected to give the recipient dry mouth/nausea/insomnia/etc., would the "placebo" also have to be known for giving people the same side effects so people in the trial wouldn't know if they got the actual drug or the placebo?  The package inserts of vaccines show that most people, thankfully, don't report inflammation, swelling, redness, or fever for the 3-7 day reporting window after receiving most vaccines.  Why do we need the "placebo" to be some other vaccine that creates some level of inflammation even though most people wouldn't know, based on their lack of inflammation, which group they were in?  Using a true placebo for all of these vaccine trials wouldn't be unethical, either, because we don't have another protective vaccine already approved and in use for this virus. 

[Ausmumof3]

490,737 cases worldwide yesterday.

[EmilyGF]

16 hours ago, hopeallgoeswell said:

Emily, sorry to hear about your RSI after flu shots. 

 

If there isn't a true placebo, then how do we suss out SAEs, both short and long-term?  Isn't that why other pharmaceutical products that go through testing use things such as sugar pills as placebos in their trials?  If a product being tested was suspected to give the recipient dry mouth/nausea/insomnia/etc., would the "placebo" also have to be known for giving people the same side effects so people in the trial wouldn't know if they got the actual drug or the placebo?  The package inserts of vaccines show that most people, thankfully, don't report inflammation, swelling, redness, or fever for the 3-7 day reporting window after receiving most vaccines.  Why do we need the "placebo" to be some other vaccine that creates some level of inflammation even though most people wouldn't know, based on their lack of inflammation, which group they were in?  Using a true placebo for all of these vaccine trials wouldn't be unethical, either, because we don't have another protective vaccine already approved and in use for this virus. 

Math. 

Emily

[Ausmumof3]

0 cases 0 deaths for Vic today.  Restrictions are still not being lifted for metro Melbourne which is starting to cause a fair bit of frustration.  
 

also I saw this discussion on humidity which seemed interesting. 

 

 

[Ausmumof3]

Ok looks like Melbourne is lifting some restrictions finally.  Also apparently selling out of donuts because they’ve labelled it donut day (for zero cases).  
 

Xingjiang China is having another outbreak of “asymptomatic cases”.  
 

The Astra Zeneca vaccine is producing a strong immune response in people in higher risk categories.

https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN27B0L7?__twitter_impression=true

[Pen]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/22/covid-surge-very-serious-in-germany-and-out-of-control-in-spain

and a quick round up of some other countries... a bit more information than just a Chart of numbers.  

[Ausmumof3]

I’ve seen some mentions of antihistamines showing positive results in Covid and also in reducing symptoms in long Covid.  If anyone sees a study I’d be interested.

[Pen]

1 hour ago, Ausmumof3 said:

I’ve seen some mentions of antihistamines showing positive results in Covid and also in reducing symptoms in long Covid.  If anyone sees a study I’d be interested.

 

I think famotidine which is on MATH protocol is an antihistamine as well as an acid reducer. 

 

I guess there were in vitro studies on it as well as just observation that people taking it seemed to do better

 

he antihistamine cloperastine, which is mostly sold in Japan, blocks glucose uptake in lung cells and has shown a small effect in fighting COVID-19

 

Also some herbs like turmeric that some long haulers are trying are natural antihistamines. 

 

I’ll

let you know if I notice other studies

 

[Wheres Toto]

2 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

I’ve seen some mentions of antihistamines showing positive results in Covid and also in reducing symptoms in long Covid.  If anyone sees a study I’d be interested.

I hope this turns out true, it would finally be some good news about my risk.  I live on antihistamines (diphenhydramine mostly though).  

[Pen]

https://www.kevinmd.com/blog/2020/02/goodbye-benadryl-it-is-time-for-you-to-retire.html

An opinion piece about antihistamines  not particularly CV19 related 

@Ausmumof3 @DorothyNJ

[Wheres Toto]

38 minutes ago, Pen said:

https://www.kevinmd.com/blog/2020/02/goodbye-benadryl-it-is-time-for-you-to-retire.html

An opinion piece about antihistamines  not particularly CV19 related 

@Ausmumof3 @DorothyNJ

Yeah, I know about the dementia thing, which applies to all antihistamines, even the newer ones.  But the rest of his points are a little hyperbolic, and apply to many of the newer ones as well (dry mouth, etc).  I'm not worried about my teenagers abusing my benedryl or about overdosing myself.   

Benedryl actually doesn't sedate me at all, I take 1/2 a dose at a time and it has no effect but works very well for my allergies.  Claritan, Allegra, Zyrtec, Singular - none of them work for me.  Allegra and Singulair make me psychotic.   I've had allergy issues for 30+ years and I've tried them all.   I have allergy-induced asthma so have to keep them under control, so I use what works for me. 

[Pen]

20 minutes ago, DorothyNJ said:

Yeah, I know about the dementia thing, which applies to all antihistamines, even the newer ones.  But the rest of his points are a little hyperbolic, and apply to many of the newer ones as well (dry mouth, etc).  I'm not worried about my teenagers abusing my benedryl or about overdosing myself.   

Benedryl actually doesn't sedate me at all, I take 1/2 a dose at a time and it has no effect but works very well for my allergies.  Claritan, Allegra, Zyrtec, Singular - none of them work for me.  Allegra and Singulair make me psychotic.   I've had allergy issues for 30+ years and I've tried them all.   I have allergy-induced asthma so have to keep them under control, so I use what works for me. 

 

That’s good that you are aware — I

only learned about these issues recently.  I have a night time headache formula with diphenhydramine and since learning have tried to reduce use of the night time version...

I do think we sometimes have to go for what works for us personally and I tend to be in favor of OTC medicines Not against.  (I am in favor of HCQ access too 😉😁) 

 

 

[Ausmumof3]

https://www.sltrib.com/news/2020/10/25/with-coronavirus-cases/
 

doesn’t sound good in Utah.

[Laura Corin]

Vaccine response in elderly good

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/fresh-coronavirus-vaccine-hope-as-elderly-respond-well-73h3nxnm7

ETA: on the other hand, some not-so-good data on how long antibodies remain:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54696873

ETA: research on brain fog post covid

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.10.20.20215863v1.full.pdf

Edited October 27, 2020 by Laura Corin

[Ausmumof3]

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2020/10/26/world/covid-19-coronavirus-updates#eli-lilly-said-its-antibody-treatment-does-not-work-on-patients-hospitalized-with-covid-19
 

Eli Lilly trial for antibody treatment is halting in hospitalised patients as it doesn’t seem to help.  Trials in people with new infections are continuing.

[Wheres Toto]

10 hours ago, Pen said:

 

That’s good that you are aware — I

only learned about these issues recently.  I have a night time headache formula with diphenhydramine and since learning have tried to reduce use of the night time version...

I do think we sometimes have to go for what works for us personally and I tend to be in favor of OTC medicines Not against.  (I am in favor of HCQ access too 😉😁) 

 

 

It's actually kind of weird for me because the "nighttime" versions of things usually keep me awake.  Nyquil gets me wired and twitchy so I have to take Dayquil if I need something more at night when sick.  

Alcohol has the same effect on me, wakes me up and makes me jittery.  Evidently I'm just strange all around. 

[BeachGal]

Some short articles about 22 individuals involved with creating and approving vaccines and therapies.

https://www.fiercepharma.com/special-report/most-influential-people-fight-against-covid-19

An article about Pfizer’s plan to deliver their vaccine at a cold enough temperature:

https://www.fiercepharma.com/manufacturing/pfizer-designed-new-container-and-plans-to-tap-shipping-companies-for-covid-19

An ad for a container that can be used to transport pharmaceuticals at very low temps, such as some of the vaccines. I thought this was interesting.

https://www.fiercepharma.com/sponsored/a-unique-solution-to-age-old-problem-how-to-transport-products-at

Edited October 27, 2020 by BeachGal
added info

[Ausmumof3]

Already posted in the reinfection thread but a study from Mexico of 235 apparent reinfection  (pre print only)

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.10.14.20212720v1

[BeachGal]

18 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Already posted in the reinfection thread but a study from Mexico of 235 apparent reinfection  (pre print only)

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.10.14.20212720v1

This study supposedly has some serious flaws. It was discussed on a forum where I lurk. Regardless, it’d be good to know more about the reinfections.

[Ausmumof3]

3 hours ago, BeachGal said:

This study supposedly has some serious flaws. It was discussed on a forum where I lurk. Regardless, it’d be good to know more about the reinfections.

For one thing I think there was only 30 days between the initial PCR and the second so it’s hard rule out long viral shedding.  

[Ausmumof3]

BNO French President Macron says number of COVID patients in ICU expected to reach 9,000, which will exceed maximum capacity

BREAKING: French President Macron announces nationwide lockdown, schools and work will continue

[Ausmumof3]

More from BNO on the situation across Europe

Spain COVID update:

- New cases: 19,765
- Positivity rate: 13.5% (-0.3)
- In hospital: 17,073 (+377)
- In ICU: 2,368 (+76)
- New deaths: 168
 

German states have agreed to impose a partial lockdown: "We have to act, and we have to act now, to avoid a national health emergency," Merkel says 
 

Italy reports record 24,991 new coronavirus cases, number in hospital jumps by more than 1,000

- New cases: 24,991
- Positivity rate: 20.5% (-0.2)
- In hospital: 14,981 (+1,026)
- In ICU: 1,536 (+125)
- New deaths: 205
 

UK COVID update: Number in hospital reaches 10,000

- New cases: 24,701
- Positivity rate: 8.8% (+0.1)
- In hospital: 10,316 (+814)
- In ICU: 902 (+50)
- New deaths: 310
 

Pressure on Belgian hospitals is increasing due to the rise in COVID patients. "By tonight there will be patients in corridors, waiting to be transferred or, sadly, for another patient to die," one small hospital says

Sweden reports 2,128 new coronavirus cases, the biggest one-day increase on record, and 9 new deaths

Poland reports record 18,820 new coronavirus cases, daily death toll tops 200 for the first time

- New cases: 18,820
- Positivity rate: 31.1% (+6.4)
- In hospital: 13,931 (+640)
- In ICU: 1,150 (+72)
- New deaths: 236

Belgium COVID update: Daily death toll at highest level since April, new hospital admissions (689) exceed first wave's record

- New cases: 13,571
- Positivity rate: 26.4% (+1.8)
- In hospital: 5,554 (+294)
- In ICU: 911 (+102)
- New deaths: 139

Czech Republic COVID update: New cases, deaths, and hospital admissions all at record highs

- New cases: 15,663
- Positivity rate: 29.4% (-5)
- In hospital: 6,191 (+578)
- In ICU: 893 (+65)
- New deaths: 182

[Ausmumof3]

China Daily:  #Beijing launched a cold-chain food tracking platform. The origin and flow of imported cold-storage meat and aquatic products will be traceable from November 1. #COVID_19
 

China Daily is not super reliable I don’t think, but the fact that China are investing time and money into setting this up seems significant.  Most things they’ve suggested (aerosol transmission etc) about the virus have been true.  This raises my level of concern about refrigerated and frozen food as a potential infection source again. 

[Ausmumof3]

England infection rate currently doubling every 9 days

https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN27E012?__twitter_impression=true

[Ausmumof3]

Global daily cases passed 500,000 on worldometer yesterday for the first time.  Hopefully the increased measures many countries are taking will turn that around.  7 day average for deaths has passed the July peak though thankfully still below the April one.

Edited October 29, 2020 by Ausmumof3