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3 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Abc go: With 875,401 new cases, one in 378 Americans tested positive for COVID-19 this week, according to the COVID Tracking Project.

Twenty-seven states this week hit a record for the number of new cases reported.

 


I am not following that 


1/378  figure. 
 

could you explain?

It doesn’t seem to

match other positive testing reports for this past week that ai have seen

does it perhaps mean cumulative total since start of pandemic rather than this past week?

 

 

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, Pen said:


I am not following that 


1/378  figure. 
 

could you explain?

It doesn’t seem to

match other positive testing reports for this past week that ai have seen

does it perhaps mean cumulative total since start of pandemic rather than this past week?

 

[EDIT because my math was off, see posts below]

If you just use 1 million for the new cases (which we will almost certainly hit next week) and 330 million for the population, that would obviously be 1 of every 330 Americans.

 

Edited by Corraleno
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43 minutes ago, Pen said:


I am not following that 


1/378  figure. 
 

could you explain?

It doesn’t seem to

match other positive testing reports for this past week that ai have seen

does it perhaps mean cumulative total since start of pandemic rather than this past week?

 

 

 

 

 

I don’t know I did read the full article to see whether it meant cumulative or this week.

Ill check the Covid tracking project and see if they have more detail.

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32 minutes ago, bookbard said:

I work out about 1 in every 32 people in the USA have had Covid, whereas in Australia 1 in every 980 people have had it. That's based on over 10 million cases in the USA, over 26,000 cases in Australia. 

If I have got that maths completely wrong, let me know! 

Worldometer has it at around 32000 per million so I think that’s right.

I see there is already over 160,000 cases added just today.  

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50 minutes ago, Pen said:


I am not following that 


1/378  figure. 
 

could you explain?

It doesn’t seem to

match other positive testing reports for this past week that ai have seen

does it perhaps mean cumulative total since start of pandemic rather than this past week?

 

 

 

 

 

 1/378 this week

for the Dakotas it’s 1/100.

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9 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

I don’t know I did read the full article to see whether it meant cumulative or this week.

Ill check the Covid tracking project and see if they have more detail.


It can’t be cumulative as that’s a higher percent.

Corraleno showed how it would fit this past week in cases. 
I was following a positive tests number recently, which was lower but I think reporting was delayed and I didn’t realize that the reported tests are probably ones from end of October still. 

 

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28 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Adding the totals from the worldometer graph for the last 7 days not including today gets me 907,769.  Working on 335,000,000 that’s 1 in 369.  
 

I think... if I didn’t mess something up.

Yes, those numbers are correct for the 5th to 11th.


ETA: Worldometer just ticked over, so they have added the 161K for today (12th). 

Current total (10,873,936) minus the total at the end of the day on the 5th (9,926,148) = 947, 788 added from Friday the 6th to Thursday the 12th.

330 million divided by 948K = 348  ☹️

 

Edited by Corraleno
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10 hours ago, kbutton said:

Fascinating. I already knew temp checks & symptom questionnaires were of minimal help finding positive cases, but this really shows how testing (with proper followup & quarantine) is key to tamping down spread. Sixteen initial cases were detected by testing (3 of them were also ID'd by temp/symptom checks) & then spread in six clusters to 51 more people. Researchers were amazed at the high levels of virus in some cases (viral load), especially asymptomatic ones. This, despite supposedly all  quarantining at home for two weeks prior and all supposedly following protocol: "everyone had followed rules about wearing masks, social distancing, pre-plating their food and the regular use of bleach wipes."

1,848 recruits took part in the study.

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The steepness of this "third wave" curve, combined with the sheer number of new cases, is truly terrifying. It took 6 weeks for the 7-day average of new cases to double from 39K (Sept 16) to 78K (Oct 29), and only 2 weeks to double from 78K to the current average of 135K. At this rate we could be looking at 300K cases per day by the end of this month.  ☹️

Screen Shot 2020-11-12 at 6.29.38 PM.png

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30 minutes ago, Corraleno said:

The steepness of this "third wave" curve, combined with the sheer number of new cases, is truly terrifying. It took 6 weeks for the 7-day average of new cases to double from 39K (Sept 16) to 78K (Oct 29), and only 2 weeks to double from 78K to the current average of 135K. At this rate we could be looking at 300K cases per day by the end of this month.  ☹️

Screen Shot 2020-11-12 at 6.29.38 PM.png

I have heard of a number of people around where I live, that are refusing or avoiding testing because they don't want to quarantine, so who knows what the true number is.

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1 hour ago, TCB said:

I have heard of a number of people around where I live, that are refusing or avoiding testing because they don't want to quarantine, so who knows what the true number is.

I know of people here that also refused testing because blah blah blah personal liberty blah blah blah.  They have no plans to miss out on Thanksgiving with family and church services, so onward they go, honking covid all over. 

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12 hours ago, Corraleno said:

How is it possible that, 10 months into the pandemic, we still don't have adequate PPE and governors are once again bidding against each other as we head into winter with exploding cases???  ☹️

 

Come on...you know why we don't have adequate PPE. 

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1 hour ago, TCB said:

I have heard of a number of people around where I live, that are refusing or avoiding testing because they don't want to quarantine, so who knows what the true number is.

 

2 minutes ago, MissLemon said:

I know of people here that also refused testing because blah blah blah personal liberty blah blah blah.  They have no plans to miss out on Thanksgiving with family and church services, so onward they go, honking covid all over. 

Here too.

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2 hours ago, TCB said:

I have heard of a number of people around where I live, that are refusing or avoiding testing because they don't want to quarantine, so who knows what the true number is.

Yep, all the work to get contact tracing going after tamping things down this spring is completely wasted. It is beyond frustrating.

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7 hours ago, frogger said:

Yep, all the work to get contact tracing going after tamping things down this spring is completely wasted. It is beyond frustrating.

The contact tracers here, the few of them that there are, also have to put up with verbal abuse and threats of violence from a number of the people they have to call. One health department head resigned because her children were receiving threats at school. Is this really who we are as a people? A parent from the local Christian school said that some of the parents etc were not going for testing prior to the election because they wanted to go vote. I know someone who went to vote, then got a test the same day and was positive. It is so frustrating and incomprehensible.

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5 minutes ago, TCB said:

The contact tracers here, the few of them that there are, also have to put up with verbal abuse and threats of violence from a number of the people they have to call. One health department head resigned because her children were receiving threats at school. Is this really who we are as a people? A parent from the local Christian school said that some of the parents etc were not going for testing prior to the election because they wanted to go vote. I know someone who went to vote, then got a test the same day and was positive. It is so frustrating and incomprehensible.

and unnecessary and unChristlike.

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51 minutes ago, TCB said:

A parent from the local Christian school said that some of the parents etc were not going for testing prior to the election because they wanted to go vote.

I know someone who was denied testing but forced to quarantine (college student) and thus missed the ability to go vote. I understand the desire to not be disenfranchised. I was blessed to be able to vote by absentee ballot/mail-in but I know others chose to risk in person voting. I would hope that these people would do differently if they could have foreseen the future. Hindsight is 20/20.

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2 minutes ago, RootAnn said:

I know someone who was denied testing but forced to quarantine (college student) and thus missed the ability to go vote. I understand the desire to not be disenfranchised. I was blessed to be able to vote by absentee ballot/mail-in but I know others chose to risk in person voting. I would hope that these people would do differently if they could have foreseen the future. Hindsight is 20/20.

It is a difficult situation for sure. In my state there were opportunities for curb side voting for people quarantining on the day. Also, my state is by no means a swing state, and the person they said they were voting for was as guaranteed to win as it was possible to be. I will say that the person I know, who voted and then went to get tested, was wearing a mask, for which I am glad, because none of the election workers where I voted were wearing masks.

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9 minutes ago, RootAnn said:

I know someone who was denied testing but forced to quarantine (college student) and thus missed the ability to go vote. I understand the desire to not be disenfranchised. I was blessed to be able to vote by absentee ballot/mail-in but I know others chose to risk in person voting. I would hope that these people would do differently if they could have foreseen the future. Hindsight is 20/20.

It's late now, but I learned that (at least in my state, probably others) you can request curbside voting at the polling place.  You sit in your car and send someone else in to tell them you need to vote curbside.  This would have helped for people concerned about getting or spreading the virus.

That said ... I have been curious to find out if there was any spread related to in-person elections.  I haven't heard a peep about it.  I sat in a small polling place where we had about 1,000 voters + maybe 20 workers.  My job was sitting at the "voter assistance table" and mostly doing provisional ballots, which involved being somewhat close to about 100 people and touching what they touched.  Everyone masked, but not always correctly, and we were told that if anyone refused to mask, we still had to let them vote.

While the folks at my precinct were spacing in line, there was no spacing in the line where I voted early, until we got onto the BOE property.  The line stretched for blocks and we stood very close to the same people for at least 1.5 hours.  (Everyone did mask.)

So far I haven't gotten sick or heard of any of our election officials catching Covid.  I hope the short duration of contact worked in the country's favor.

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1 hour ago, SKL said:

It's late now, but I learned that (at least in my state, probably others) you can request curbside voting at the polling place.  You sit in your car and send someone else in to tell them you need to vote curbside.  This would have helped for people concerned about getting or spreading the virus.

That said ... I have been curious to find out if there was any spread related to in-person elections.  I haven't heard a peep about it.  I sat in a small polling place where we had about 1,000 voters + maybe 20 workers.  My job was sitting at the "voter assistance table" and mostly doing provisional ballots, which involved being somewhat close to about 100 people and touching what they touched.  Everyone masked, but not always correctly, and we were told that if anyone refused to mask, we still had to let them vote.

While the folks at my precinct were spacing in line, there was no spacing in the line where I voted early, until we got onto the BOE property.  The line stretched for blocks and we stood very close to the same people for at least 1.5 hours.  (Everyone did mask.)

So far I haven't gotten sick or heard of any of our election officials catching Covid.  I hope the short duration of contact worked in the country's favor.

There have been instances of spread related to voting in my state. A supervisor, who had tested positive, went in to work anyway and has subsequently died. Several others came up positive afterwards. Also, I read of several poll workers who it was believed contracted the virus because of contact with voters. However, many in my state did not wear masks, poll workers and voters both.

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Honestly, I don’t think it will do a thing. People prone to be conscientious will continue to be and those are not won’t heed the advisory. 
 

I am fuming mad this morning that the church I belong to has said they are going to have all kinds of optional youth activities because they fall under the religious exemption. They just restarted two months ago. The tone has shifted to one of defiance and although we aren’t personally participating I view their handling of it as very distasteful—it’s callous disregard and a fraud to say that going to an indoor archery range for youth night is a religious activity. 

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I'm glad curbside voting was available. In the case I cited of a college student, the quarantined students are not allowed to leave the building (or, technically, their room) unless checked out by a parent to go home. I don't know how this works if you don't have a parent in the area or you need to go to a medical appointment. Curbside voting wouldn't have worked for this student even if available. I'm still mad they wouldn't test him.

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28 minutes ago, RootAnn said:

I'm glad curbside voting was available. In the case I cited of a college student, the quarantined students are not allowed to leave the building (or, technically, their room) unless checked out by a parent to go home. I don't know how this works if you don't have a parent in the area or you need to go to a medical appointment. Curbside voting wouldn't have worked for this student even if available. I'm still mad they wouldn't test him.

They should have tested him and they should have made provisions for him to vote. At my dd's university there was the option for someone, a poll worker, to come to you, if you were quarantined, to collect your vote on election day.

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1 hour ago, prairiewindmomma said:

Headlines are popping up that Washington, Oregon, and California are putting in travel advisories. https://www.oregonlive.com/coronavirus/2020/11/kate-brown-other-west-coast-governors-urge-travelers-to-quarantine-for-2-weeks-as-covid-surges.html



 

 I don’t know if people who work (outside of home) or are in in person school and are most risky for spreading it likely have 2 weeks plus time for travel available to realistically quarantine . Vacation and holiday leave rarely provides more than 2 weeks total. 
 

(Maybe it would be a tiny help for retired people or work from home people who are traveling to be reminded not to share possible incoming virus with local contacts? IDK.)

Edited by Pen
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1 minute ago, Pen said:

 I don’t know if people who work (outside of home) or are in in person school and are most risky for spreading it likely have 2 weeks plus time for travel available to realistically quarantine

Very true. Trips are usually much shorter. I have some relatives who will be coming into our very hot area from a lower exposure area & they will be here only five days. Some of our family just saw them recently for two days. Guidelines/ruled like that are not likely to be followed. It just isn't feasible. Since some people have been putting off seeing relatives for most of the year, I see the latest restrictions being ignored. Plus, college kids will be coming home at Thanksgiving in many places. I see the number of cases continuing to exponentially increase until at least the end of 2020.

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2 hours ago, prairiewindmomma said:

I am fuming mad this morning that the church I belong to has said they are going to have all kinds of optional youth activities because they fall under the religious exemption. They just restarted two months ago. The tone has shifted to one of defiance and although we aren’t personally participating I view their handling of it as very distasteful—it’s callous disregard and a fraud to say that going to an indoor archery range for youth night is a religious activity. 

My church is not as official about this--they are still being somewhat minimalist about "official" activities. However, our church website says that we do masks and distancing for church services. This is not entirely the case--many people take masks off once seated, and there were a number of prayer services where no one seemed to be masked or distanced (people put pictures on social media).

The youth group mentions bringing masks to all events; again, the pictures show that no one is wearing them (and distance is quite questionable at best). The youth pastor recently gave a talk on how to love hypocritical people. 🤯

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from tonight’s Dr Been Q&A:

 

a potential problem with using high amounts of Quercitin long term as a zinc ionophore 

“Quercetin reduces the activity of thyroperoxidase as well as the activity of a second enzyme — hepatic deiodinase — a liver enzyme required to activate the thyroid hormone. Although onions are particularly rich sources of quercetin, quercetin is found in a wide variety of fruits and vegetables. “
 

And some promise for fluvoxamine: 

“In this randomized trial that included 152 adult outpatients with confirmed COVID-19 and symptom onset within 7 days, clinical deterioration occurred in 0 patients treated with fluvoxamine vs 6 (8.3%) patients treated with placebo over 15 days, a difference that was statistically significant.”

 

and another study: 

https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/11/13/sciadv.abe4724.full

JAK inhibition reduces SARS-CoV-2 liver infectivity and modulates inflammatory responses to reduce morbidity and mortality

 

 

potentially of interest 

 

 

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2 minutes ago, Pen said:

from tonight’s Dr Been Q&A:

a potential problem with using high amounts of Quercitin long term as a zinc ionophore 

“Quercetin reduces the activity of thyroperoxidase as well as the activity of a second enzyme — hepatic deiodinase — a liver enzyme required to activate the thyroid hormone. Although onions are particularly rich sources of quercetin, quercetin is found in a wide variety of fruits and vegetables. “

So I've been taking Quercetin,  but is it a 'high amount'??  That is so vague.

And of course I have no idea how much is in my diet. I eat an apple a day, plus other fruits and veggies...

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5 minutes ago, Pen said:

https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/11/13/sciadv.abe4724.full

JAK inhibition reduces SARS-CoV-2 liver infectivity and modulates inflammatory responses to reduce morbidity and mortality

I saw that study earlier today and wrote a long post about it, which went poof when I hit submit. Sigh.

I'm not going to rewrite the whole thing, but I think that study, although small, is potentially quite good news, especially for elderly people with moderate to severe cases. Most of the participants were elderly and had multiple underlying conditions — one of the two cohorts (in Spain) had a median age of 80! The treatment group had significantly better outcomes than the trait-matched control group, and the authors said that in many cases the improvement was immediately apparent from day 1. So that sounds like a really promising treatment, especially for the most at-risk population.

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13 minutes ago, Matryoshka said:

So I've been taking Quercetin,  but is it a 'high amount'??  That is so vague.

And of course I have no idea how much is in my diet. I eat an apple a day, plus other fruits and veggies...


 

i have also been taking Quercitin and agree that it is vague ...

underlying “studies” seem

to be vague and generally on rats not humans:

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/24447974/

I think I am going to continue as I have been doing. 

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Just now, Matryoshka said:

How much are you taking?


I am taking 1 capsule each time I take zinc plus additional for allergy symptoms, but I am not where I can tell u what mg amount is in a capsule (and I have more than one type of Quercitin).  I’ll try to remember to check this tomorrow.

When I first started it I had looked up what was supposed to be upper safety dose limit and all my options seemed well under that, even with apples etc added during course of day. 

My dog also takes Quercitin for allergies, and for him I often use a powder without careful measuring, so I think awareness of potential iodine absorption problems or depression of thyroid is important for him too. 

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2 hours ago, lewelma said:

This is beyond depressing.  

and yet some of the Facebook homeschool groups are still talking about not living in fear.  So hard to understand to be honest.


We have a case came into NSW today from Auckland.  Hope that doesn’t mean something simmering away over there.  I haven’t had much time for the news today.

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23 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:


We have a case came into NSW today from Auckland.  Hope that doesn’t mean something simmering away over there.  I haven’t had much time for the news today.

Nope. We had a quarantine worker last week create a minicluster of 4 individuals, which they have tracked and traced. They are busy this weekend making sure it has not spread further.  Luckily, we can genome test and link back to the border, so they can tell by the mutation rate that there are no intermediaries between the original case A and the other 3 cases. so direct transmission. This will be the 4th time that covid has escaped from the border. And the 4th time the government has knocked it down on its ass. 

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26 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

and yet some of the Facebook homeschool groups are still talking about not living in fear.  So hard to understand to be honest.

Well, my parents who are in their 80s have not seen ANYONE since March.  They have not gone to church, to the grocery, to a shop, or visited with friends or family.  My dad pumps gas for the car - with gloves and then hand sanitizes afterwards.  They are NOT going out, they are NOT seeing anyone. 

My mother in law is 92 and she lives alone in her own home. She has seen family (who have quarantined for 2 weeks) 4 times since March.  She goes to the grocery store once a week at 7am. She no longer goes to church, she sees not friends, she does not shop.  She is completely ALONE. She knows that at 92 if she gets it, she is likely to die.

I say it is beyond depressing because of what our family is going through.

 

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56 minutes ago, lewelma said:

Well, my parents who are in their 80s have not seen ANYONE since March.  They have not gone to church, to the grocery, to a shop, or visited with friends or family.  My dad pumps gas for the car - with gloves and then hand sanitizes afterwards.  They are NOT going out, they are NOT seeing anyone. 

My mother in law is 92 and she lives alone in her own home. She has seen family (who have quarantined for 2 weeks) 4 times since March.  She goes to the grocery store once a week at 7am. She no longer goes to church, she sees not friends, she does not shop.  She is completely ALONE. She knows that at 92 if she gets it, she is likely to die.

I say it is beyond depressing because of what our family is going through.

 

That is so tough.  Such a long long time.  Even my parents who were very careful over winter were starting to feel the effects without needing to be that careful.  Must be hard not being close by to help if they need it as well.

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6 hours ago, Pen said:


 

i have also been taking Quercitin and agree that it is vague ...

underlying “studies” seem

to be vague and generally on rats not humans:

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/24447974/

I think I am going to continue as I have been doing. 

Thx for the heads up.  Thyroid imbalance is an issue for some in our family so will be a bit more conservative with dosing I guess.

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22 hours ago, RootAnn said:

I know someone who was denied testing but forced to quarantine (college student) and thus missed the ability to go vote. I understand the desire to not be disenfranchised. I was blessed to be able to vote by absentee ballot/mail-in but I know others chose to risk in person voting. I would hope that these people would do differently if they could have foreseen the future. Hindsight is 20/20.

This fear is why I pushed my family to vote early. My DH was being stubborn at first - he likes to vote on election day itself, but I kept mentioning that "people" in general should vote as early as possible since they never know when they might have an exposure and have to quarantine. (we have early voting for 2 weeks here, about). I didn't say HE should....so technically not nagging, right, lol? He did finally go in and vote early, but only by a few days. We are in a swing state so a big deal. 

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4 hours ago, ktgrok said:

This fear is why I pushed my family to vote early. My DH was being stubborn at first - he likes to vote on election day itself, but I kept mentioning that "people" in general should vote as early as possible since they never know when they might have an exposure and have to quarantine. (we have early voting for 2 weeks here, about). I didn't say HE should....so technically not nagging, right, lol? He did finally go in and vote early, but only by a few days. We are in a swing state so a big deal. 

We were trying to balance this as well. We voted by absentee ballot, but you can only take ballots to the drop-off box for immediate family members. We didn't want them in the mail because we weren't sure about delays and the timing for those. If we waited too long and were in quarantine, we were likely also too late for the post office. 

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9 hours ago, lewelma said:

Well, my parents who are in their 80s have not seen ANYONE since March.  They have not gone to church, to the grocery, to a shop, or visited with friends or family.  My dad pumps gas for the car - with gloves and then hand sanitizes afterwards.  They are NOT going out, they are NOT seeing anyone. 

My mother in law is 92 and she lives alone in her own home. She has seen family (who have quarantined for 2 weeks) 4 times since March.  She goes to the grocery store once a week at 7am. She no longer goes to church, she sees not friends, she does not shop.  She is completely ALONE. She knows that at 92 if she gets it, she is likely to die.

I say it is beyond depressing because of what our family is going through.

 

Are they in New Zealand?  Forgive me for asking this - you can answer generically - but if the virus is eradicated in New Zealand wouldn't they be safe seeing people? 

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5 minutes ago, Jean in Newcastle said:

Are they in New Zealand?  Forgive me for asking this - you can answer generically - but if the virus is eradicated in New Zealand wouldn't they be safe seeing people? 

Sorry, no. They are in the USA.  MI and KY, so it is not safe at all. 

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