Poll: Are you more fearful of the swine flu NOW than you were in the Spring

[Tree House Academy]

And if you answered yes, then please tell us why. :)

 

I am really interested in the answers as I read more and more people start to get heightened in their worries. It seems like all of us are in a "wait and see" and "prepare for the worst" stance right now...

 

Also, if you have factual evidence (reports, articles, etc) about why the fall is going to be a reason to be more fearful, please link those are let us know where to look.

 

TIA!

[newbie]

Yes, because 14 deaths in San Diego. And I think almost 700 cases. I think there have been eight of those since July 4.

 

So, yes I am very concerned.

[Tree House Academy]

I am definitely more concerned about "what is going on" and I am fearful for how bad it may get. The fact that it went through summer and didn't die out like regular flu frightens me a bit too. I am most afraid for my children and my husband who has asthma.

[HiddenJewel]

I am as concerned about the Swine Flu as I am about any other influenza. Care needs to be taken but I do think there is a lot of media hype. People die from the non-Swine Flu too.

[Hsmomto4]

Maybe it's just because I haven't been following it, but I'm not anymore concerned now than I was before. I have my supplies for any emergency though so we can bunker down if need be at any time. However, I hope that isn't the case.

[Georgiana Daniels]

I guess I'm more worried because we haven't been through the real flu season with the swine flu. Also, my husband can't really take time off work (since he is a commission only salesman), so hunkering down isn't really an option, plus he sees lots of people every day. My oldest is in public school, but they'll probably close those down if things go willy nilly.

 

For the record, I'm pretty much a hypochondriac anyway:D

[Supertechmom]

I don't know how to feel. I think the media is making a big hype out of it but yet to still report flu in the summer worries me. The media also uses "fuzzy math" a lot without any real fact checking or hard numbers. So I am nervous. Gov agencies don't give me much confidence because they seem to just promote the next agenda. The media isn't making me feel better because they have been on a doom and gloom streak for many many months. I don't feel we can get any "real" info from anyone right now. It does disturb me but I don't really know how much to be disturbed. :tongue_smilie: And I think we will be in this boat for a few years not just a season as it makes it's way around the globe and thru a few flu seasons.

[Jean in Wisc]

In a normal year, 200,000 people in the U.S. get the flu and 36,000 die from it (18%?).

 

http://www.cdc.gov/flu/keyfacts.htm

 

So far 5,514 people in the U.S. have gotten the swine flu and 353 have died from it (6%?).

 

http://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/update.htm

 

I don't know what is to come--it may swing back around with a vengeance--but so far, the media has made a ridiculous hype of all of this, imo.

 

Being prepared for a national/regional emergency makes sense for anyone--at the least, I think we ought to have thought through what we would do. I don't see that we need to do more than this right now for the swine flu. For those who have never made a plan for such an emergency, this might be a good reason to do so.

 

jmwacpo,

Jean

 

(iow: just my wild and crazy personal opinion)

[Tree House Academy]

In a normal year, 200,000 people in the U.S. get the flu and 36,000 die from it (18%?).

 

http://www.cdc.gov/flu/keyfacts.htm

 

So far 5,514 people in the U.S. have gotten the swine flu and 353 have died from it (6%?).

 

http://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/update.htm

 

 

 

I agree with this. However...5,514 people in the US have had swine flu in just a matter of 3 months...and all during the summer which is almost unheard of with "regular" flu. Of course, even if we doubled the figure of 353 for fall through spring and estimated that 700 people died each 3 months - then the numbers are still MUCH lower than typical flu. I don't know. The facts are all so confusing to us non-medical folk.

 

I asked my dr. a few days ago (who is also a homeschooler) how he felt about swine flu. He made a joke or two and then told me that he did plan to get the flu shot for his children. That surprised me a bit, to be honest. He is very conservative.

[BillieBoy]

I voted 'other' because I do feel the same as I did in the spring but regardless of media hype it is something to take very seriously.

[hornblower]

The reason this flu worries me is that it is attacking the 'wrong' population. I'm not persuaded by those stats Jean in Wisc because those regular seasonal flu deaths are mostly the elderly/chemo patients/AID HIV etc. They're people who are old or severly immunocompromised already.

 

This flu is attacking the young & about 1/2 the cases have no underlying conditions. If you had the same death rate as seasonal flu but among the young population, that would cause disruption.

 

People with asthma, people who are overweight and pregnant women are all at higher risk. Children can be struck down very fast. We had several cases of children dying within 24-48h of symptom onset. This is NOT how the regular flu presents.

 

And behind the statistics lie people just like you and me. I don't mean to be heartless but if my 90 yo relative is taken off by a seasonal flu it's sad but hardly shocking. But when kids and people in their 30's and 40's are killed by a flu, that's something to take notice of.

 

flutrackers.com is trying to track deaths worldwide. It's an interesting site to read. I'm one of the mods there but I'm on board break now.

 

Effect measure also has really good analysis of what's happening. It's a blog written by public health drs & epidemiologists. Interesting, intelligent analysis. Flutrackers otoh can be a bit 'out there' sometimes; those of you with tin hats will feel at home :D. That said, there's a lot of great data at the flutrackers site. We only get bits & pieces in the media so it's nice to see it all & get a sense of what's happening globally on the ground. Argentina for ex is having a very hard time with their flu season.

[Perry]

The reason this flu worries me is that it is attacking the 'wrong' population. I'm not persuaded by those stats Jean in Wisc because those regular seasonal flu deaths are mostly the elderly/chemo patients/AID HIV etc. They're people who are old or severly immunocompromised already.

 

This flu is attacking the young & about 1/2 the cases have no underlying conditions. If you had the same death rate as seasonal flu but among the young population, that would cause disruption.

 

People with asthma, people who are overweight and pregnant women are all at higher risk. Children can be struck down very fast. We had several cases of children dying within 24-48h of symptom onset. This is NOT how the regular flu presents.

 

And behind the statistics lie people just like you and me. I don't mean to be heartless but if my 90 yo relative is taken off by a seasonal flu it's sad but hardly shocking. But when kids and people in their 30's and 40's are killed by a flu, that's something to take notice of.

 

flutrackers.com is trying to track deaths worldwide. It's an interesting site to read. I'm one of the mods there but I'm on board break now.

 

Effect measure also has really good analysis of what's happening. It's a blog written by public health drs & epidemiologists. Interesting, intelligent analysis. Flutrackers otoh can be a bit 'out there' sometimes; those of you with tin hats will feel at home :D. That said, there's a lot of great data at the flutrackers site. We only get bits & pieces in the media so it's nice to see it all & get a sense of what's happening globally on the ground. Argentina for ex is having a very hard time with their flu season.

:iagree:

[theresatwist]

Not to say that I'm not worried, but don't far larger numbers of people die from ordinary old influenza every year?

 

I didn't vote because I don't feel as though I understand the issue. I understand that this flu can be deadly, but I feel as though I don't know the true extent of the danger. I think the media and the government want everyone to be as careful as possible and so they sort of scare folks. Maybe that's the right approach; I don't know. Next time I go to the doctor I plan to ask him how worried I should be.

[Moni]

No.

:seeya:

[momofkhm]

We've got the food thing figured out. I'm working on making a list of supplies specifically for the flu and will work on getting those. If we need to hunker down in the next month, I'll be unprepared. But after that hopefully we'll be fine!

[ciyates]

Over the last 2 weeks two people in our community died from it. The young man was 19 his sister was 24.

 

The hospital tested them for in when they were admitted and they tested negative. They were treated for other things and after they both had multiple organ failure they were tested again and showed positive.

[Gretchen in NJ]

I am as concerned about the Swine Flu as I am about any other influenza. Care needs to be taken but I do think there is a lot of media hype. People die from the non-Swine Flu too.

:iagree: I am less worried about the swine flu, then the possiblity of having forced vaccinations of a vaccine which has not been properly tested.

[hornblower]

Over the last 2 weeks two people in our community died from it. The young man was 19 his sister was 24.

 

The hospital tested them for in when they were admitted and they tested negative. They were treated for other things and after they both had multiple organ failure they were tested again and showed positive.

 

That's sad and scary.

 

The rapid tests are having very high rates of false negatives. There is really no other resp virus right now in most areas of North America so if someone presents with ILI -influenza like illness - odds are it's novel H1N1. They may have had a chance if they were treated promptly with Tamiflu.....

 

Mulitple organ failure is one of the things flutrackers is tracking. Google cytokinetic storm.

 

What is also not being talked about much is that in some areas - notably Winnipeg - our ICU capacity is already severely strained & we're likely not at the peak. In May/June they were running out of spaces on ventilators. When some people get sick, they get very, very sick & there are only so many vents avail. In some areas ECMO machines are avail & they've been life-saving for critically ill people. In areas where these are not avail, well, the people just can't breathe & if they're sick enough, they will die.

 

If a whole bunch of people get really sick at once, there won't be enough machines or enough people trained to use them. Vent capacity in many cities is surprisingly small & they're usually used for a brief period but some of these flu patients have been on the machines for weeks before they start to recover. And some don't.

 

Just to personalize this a bit: 43 year old, previously healthy pastor from Alberta.

[NoPlaceLikeHome]

I voted other since I am not fearful, just concerned. My ds used to get severe croup so much so that he had the ER doctors in an uproar and recently had it again but not as severe. I have a nebulizer machine, albuterol, and oralpred on hand thanks to his doctor since he had so many severe episodes which has averted several trips to the ER thank God:).

 

In regards to myself, I have asthma and have been hit hard with bronchitis and pneumonia 3 times in the past 1 1/2 so much so that I was acutely short of breath and even required high dose prednisone this last time.

 

I think anyone who has health issues like asthma, COPD, decreased immunity, obesity, pregnancy, etc. should be concerned but not fearful.

 

I will continue to monitor the situation and if necessary cut back on our activities if it gets to be bad. In the mean time I am trying everything in my power to get healthy due to the wake up calls that I have had and try not to worry so much.

 

Oh, and as a nurse, all I can say is handwashing, handwashing, handwashing. I carry the germinex wipes with me as well. My old nursing instructor used to tell us do not touch your face as way to decrease our risk. I make it a habit to only touch my face after I have washed my hands:). Most flu bugs are transmitted via the hands from what I understand.

 

I also take 2,000 to 10,000 units of Vitamin D3 and lifeway kefir or stonyfield farm yogurt daily to boost my immune system. Check with your doctor regarding the same.

Edited July 31, 2009 by priscilla
spelling

[Dirtroad]

I would like to know how many people die of the usual FLU each day/month or year in an area? Then, how does this compare with the swine flu scare. Ihaven't looked it up but reading some posts on this thread make me wonder.

 

I have heard that the usual flu kills MANY more per year than this swine flu... but still the WHO/CDC keep beating the drums of how dangerous it is. Why the hysteria of the regular flu is so much more dangerous?

 

My state has had 1 death (announced on radio yesterday)... not sure of # of cases...

 

Priscilla... I take a small can of Lysol in my purse along with the hand sanitizers... spray those elevator buttons or door knobs at doc offices, shopping carts etc.... I did it most often when I had a newborn or toddlers than today. However, I keep the in there!

Edited July 31, 2009 by Dirtroad

[Perry]

I would like to know how many people die of the usual FLU each day/month or year in an area? Then, how does this compare with the swine flu scare. Ihaven't looked it up but reading some posts on this thread make me wonder.

 

I have heard that the usual flu kills MANY more per year than this swine flu... but still the WHO/CDC keep beating the drums of how dangerous it is. Why the hysteria of the regular flu is so much more dangerous?

 

My state has had 1 death (announced on radio yesterday)... not sure of # of cases...

 

The worry is what will happen in the second wave. Historically it's worse, maybe *much* worse than the first wave.

[Tap]

In a normal year, 200,000 people in the U.S. get the flu and 36,000 die from it (18%?).

 

http://www.cdc.gov/flu/keyfacts.htm

 

So far 5,514 people in the U.S. have gotten the swine flu and 353 have died from it (6%?).

 

http://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/update.htm

 

I don't know what is to come--it may swing back around with a vengeance--but so far, the media has made a ridiculous hype of all of this, imo.

 

Being prepared for a national/regional emergency makes sense for anyone--at the least, I think we ought to have thought through what we would do. I don't see that we need to do more than this right now for the swine flu. For those who have never made a plan for such an emergency, this might be a good reason to do so.

 

jmwacpo,

Jean

 

(iow: just my wild and crazy personal opinion)

 

I read those statistics different than you...

 

"Every year in the United States, on average:

 

•5% to 20% of the population gets the flu;

•more than 200,000 people are hospitalized from flu-related complications; and

•about 36,000 people die from flu-related causes. " quote from cdc link provided.

 

 

The 200,000 isn't how many got the flu, it is the number that were hospitalized by it.

 

 

 

ETA: Flu facts .com cites 25-50 million cases of the flu in the US each year

 

"In the U.S., an estimated 25–50 million cases of the flu are currently reported each year — leading to 150,000 hospitalizations and 30,000–40,000 deaths yearly. If these figures were to be estimated incorporating the rest of the world, there would be an average of approximately 1 billion cases of flu, around 3–5 million cases of severe illness, and 300,000–500,000 deaths annually." From Flu facts .com

Edited July 31, 2009 by Tap, tap, tap

[Jean in Wisc]

I read those statistics different than you...

 

"Every year in the United States, on average:

 

•5% to 20% of the population gets the flu;

•more than 200,000 people are hospitalized from flu-related complications; and

•about 36,000 people die from flu-related causes. " quote from cdc link provided.

 

 

The 200,000 isn't how many got the flu, it is the number that were hospitalized by it.

 

I was going from memory of what I heard, and when I saw the statistics that were the same as was in my head, I didn't read further. Thanks for the clarification. :) Jean

[dirty ethel rackham]

I had the flu this spring and the doc said it was very likely that it was the swine flu. Only a little more severe than previous flues - in that it took me longer to feel myself. I had two days in bed and 3 days of walking around in a daze then 2 weeks of normal activity except exercise and 2 weeks of dragging through exercise.

 

So, I am more worried about the pregnant women, who seem to be harder hit than I would ordinarily by about any flu virus. But other than that, not really worried.

[sassenach]

I was concerned in the spring, and I'm just as concerned now.

[Blessedfamily]

I had the flu this spring and the doc said it was very likely that it was the swine flu. Only a little more severe than previous flues - in that it took me longer to feel myself. I had two days in bed and 3 days of walking around in a daze then 2 weeks of normal activity except exercise and 2 weeks of dragging through exercise.

 

So, I am more worried about the pregnant women, who seem to be harder hit than I would ordinarily by about any flu virus. But other than that, not really worried.

 

So if you did have it, will you have some immunity in fall?

[sassenach]

What is also not being talked about much is that in some areas - notably Winnipeg - our ICU capacity is already severely strained & we're likely not at the peak. In May/June they were running out of spaces on ventilators. When some people get sick, they get very, very sick & there are only so many vents avail. In some areas ECMO machines are avail & they've been life-saving for critically ill people. In areas where these are not avail, well, the people just can't breathe & if they're sick enough, they will die.

 

If a whole bunch of people get really sick at once, there won't be enough machines or enough people trained to use them. Vent capacity in many cities is surprisingly small & they're usually used for a brief period but some of these flu patients have been on the machines for weeks before they start to recover. And some don't.

 

 

 

My son just spent 2 days in the PICU in San Francisco. The charge nurse said that this is usually their slow season, but they have been absolutely inundated with swine flu patients. She is very concerned about what the actual flu season will look like. She's also surprised at what she feels is UNDER reporting from the media. They have had to bring in traveling nurses to handle the influx of patients.

[Tap]

Other, I am still concerned...

 

 

I work in pharmacy and we deal with the patients who have the flu, a lot. We administer thousands of flu shots each year and try to be as educated as possible.

 

I understand that this flu didn't hit the US with the impact first anticipated, but they do suspect that we got a different strain of it. If this strain mutates into a more severe influenza we are in big trouble. The age of the population that it kills is uncharacteristic, the fact that it is out of season, combined with the fact that the vaccine will not be ready to be in the current flu shots, and that so little is still known about it, can lead to devastating numbers of deaths.

[Tap]

So if you did have it, will you have some immunity in fall?

 

Yes, she would against the strain and mutation that she already had, but not other variants.

[mcconnellboys]

The colder the weather, the easier flu spreads, so fall/winter is always going to be of greater concern to me. Also, we come together a lot more with other homeschoolers in fall and my older son goes back to school, so we're in contact with more people on a daily basis....

[6packofun]

This is my response, too.

[Tree House Academy]

This has been very enlightening. I do feel that the media was asked, by someone or some entity, to "pull back" after the initial reports started to induce panic. It is nice (and frightening) to hear about the woman at the PICU. It does scare me that kids and young adults are the ones dying from this. I have yet to hear a report of a 90 year old who died of swine flu. They are all from the ages of 2-55 or so.

 

We are in a small area and the swine flu has been sporadic here, at best. However, it is not winter and the thought of winter scares me a bit. I am also a very paranoid hypochondriac. But no, I am taking this seriously and am really worried for my kids and my husband. I have heard that it is best to not be all that healthy, honestly. Isn't it when you are the picture of health that you are at the greatest risk for the cytokine storm?

[anewday]

As concerned as spring. Much more anxious though as fall approaches. I'm seriously worried about it, to be honest.

[Sunshine Mama]

Haven't read all the responses but thought I would add that our family had the swine flu about 6 weeks ago. All 5 of us. My husband and 2 sons were moderately sick, my 19 month got really sick and I barely got sick at all (must have had some immunity). Only my daugther was tested (showing a confirmed case thru the health dept) but it was obvious we all had it. My point is that there are probably a lot more cases than are actually confirmed. For everyone but my daughter it wasn't much worse than a really bad cold. In my opinion, I really wouldn't fear it. If you get sick with flu-like symptoms, take care of yourself, but don't live in fear of it. Of course, that's probably easy for me to say.....since I banking on the hope that we all have immunity now. :)

[Tap]

I am having a hard time seeing a difference between the 2nd and 3rd choices....anyone care to help me see the difference.

 

Poll: Are you more fearful of the swine flu NOW than you were in the Spring.

 

 

Yes! It is getting worse and we should be prepared.

No! It is still all media hype and not a big deal, IMO.

I feel about the same as I did in the fall (media hype, no big deal)

None of the above. Please elaborate.

[Bassoonaroo]

I'm getting more nervous.

 

My dd is at camp (I pick her up tomorrow). The camp nearly closed due to how many kids were sent home the last two weeks. This week, they sent home only (as far as I know) one girl -- a good friend of dd's from our church.

 

Another camp nearby shut down due to it (and some stomach crud) going around.

 

And, we're near a college that has/had over 130 reported cases in the last month or so.

 

And a 41 year old lady died here. HIPPA laws are keeping it mum to whether or not she had underlying conditions or was pregnant.

[Pamela H in Texas]

At VERY first, I had a bit of concern. Then with some research thought the hype was nuts. Now it doesn't even cross my mind other than an eye roll when I hear/see something about it. I do figure on a bit of concern this fall though. Every big flu issue has had a mild outbreak then six months later a major one. The big one should be ready to start about the time of flu season and all the other issues of winter. I am pretty weak health wise and my daughter has a medical issue that can be caused to come out of remission with the help of a virus. So those are concerns, but I still don't feel a huge bit of stress about it yet. We'll just have to see what happens.

[Chris in VA]

I think dd might have had it last spring (June). I'm concerned, but taking a wait and see approach. I do get easily sucked in to media drama. I don't think any of us living really remember an absolutely terrible flu epidemic (but I could be wrong).

[amy g.]

We are all recovering from it now, and I'm pregnant. My 10 year old had the first and worst case. Thursday, she broke out in a rash all over her body.

 

The doctors have no way of knowing if the rash was from the virus or a reaction to the Tamiflu, but they did say she would need to have the vaccine since they won't want to give her Tamiflu again. I haven't made up my mind about that yet.

 

I agree that it might be under reported. My son and I had no fever, just coughing and a blinding headache. If my daughter did not have a confirmed case, it would NEVER have occurred to me that we had the flu. It is fortunate that I received the Tamiflu within hours of my first symptoms.

 

I'm hoping that this exposure will give us a little added immunity in the fall.

[dirty ethel rackham]

I am positive it is underreported. Around here, when they figured out that the outbreak was pretty mild, they stopped testing people and even discouraged people from going to the doctor unless absolutely necessary to try to stop its spread. So that is a whole lotta people not tested. Also, many people don't call the doctor when they are sick, even with the flu, unless things get really bad, that being a subjective term. What is really bad to one person is not so bad to another.

[Gretchen in NJ]

We are all recovering from it now, and I'm pregnant. My 10 year old had the first and worst case. Thursday, she broke out in a rash all over her body.

 

The doctors have no way of knowing if the rash was from the virus or a reaction to the Tamiflu, but they did say she would need to have the vaccine since they won't want to give her Tamiflu again. I haven't made up my mind about that yet.

 

I agree that it might be under reported. My son and I had no fever, just coughing and a blinding headache. If my daughter did not have a confirmed case, it would NEVER have occurred to me that we had the flu. It is fortunate that I received the Tamiflu within hours of my first symptoms.

 

I'm hoping that this exposure will give us a little added immunity in the fall.

 

This does not make sense to me at all.:001_huh: I understand about not giving her Tammiflu again, but if she is already been exposed. She should have immunity. She shouldn't need the vaccine. Odd.:confused: This is not the flu season here, so if you have the flu I would think that it would be the swine flu. I have been hearing about a lot of false negatives.

[hornblower]

This does not make sense to me at all.:001_huh: I understand about not giving her Tammiflu again, but if she is already been exposed. She should have immunity. She shouldn't need the vaccine. Odd.:confused: .

 

The 2nd wave may be mutated enough that getting it this time will not provide full immunity.

[Gretchen in NJ]

The 2nd wave may be mutated enough that getting it this time will not provide full immunity.

 

True, but then the vaccine is based upon what is going around now: not what it may mutate to be.

[Jennifer in MI]

I'm concerned and prepared. I'm grateful that we have Orapred and a nebulizer here at home due to an asthmatic child.

 

We may have had it here in January. We went on a cruise to Mexico and within a couple of days of coming home, two of my kids had the flu. They were down and out for a week. We took them to the doctor after 5 days of high fevers and they weren't tested. Doc said that he wouldn't treat them any differently if it were the flu - just rest and lots of fluids - so no test.

 

I do wonder if they had it though.

[BigMamaBird]

I voted No, but I'm actually less worried than in the spring.

 

The reason being, that rather than only hearing from the media about how the killer virus is coming to take us all away, I've actually been hearing from some ladies on this board and others who have had experiences with it, or have been to conferences and posted preparedness ideas. I don't know what is going to happen this flu season, but I've got information and know what we'll do if something happens.

[hillfarm]

:(

Edited August 1, 2009 by hillfarm
double post, sorry!

[hillfarm]

In a normal year, 200,000 people in the U.S. get the flu and 36,000 die from it (18%?).

 

http://www.cdc.gov/flu/keyfacts.htm

 

Jean, I am not picking on you as I often see the 36,000 figure quoted. However, here is a piece written on how they come up with that "36,000 a year die of seasonal flu" line:

 

http://www.naturalnews.com/026169.html

 

(NaturalNews) Read just about any news report on swine flu deaths, and you'll come across a line that claims "36,000 people die each year from flu-related causes." It sounds authoritative. It's even a nice, round number. But where is this number coming from? And is it based on any actual science?

 

This statistic is being paraded around by almost everybody, as if to say that swine flu isn't so bad because regular flu kills so many people each year anyway. The truth is that the only standard by which the CDC and WHO are quoting deaths from swine flu is if they are confirmed deaths from a particular viral strain. To them, if a death has not been confirmed in their labs, it does not count as a death from that flu.

Got that? Only "confirmed" deaths count. And they must be confirmed in a laboratory using a rigorous method of comparing samples taken from the deceased with a known database of viral patterns.

 

As it turns out, virtually none of the 36,000 people said to die from regular flu each year have been confirmed in any lab whatsoever.

 

Thus, according to the guidelines of the CDC and WHO, they don't count. Based on their own rules, it is technically accurate to say that regular flu kills virtually no one. It's not true, of course, because people do die from the "regular flu" each year, but it is technically accurate according to the CDC and WHO rules for scientific evidence.

 

Again, that's because nearly all of these "regular flu" deaths aren't confirmed by a CDC or WHO-recognized lab. Thus, they have no scientific standing.

 

Infectious disease double standard

I find it interesting that when talking about swine flu, the criteria for inclusion in statistics is positive identification in a rigorous laboratory. But when talking about regular flu, the criteria for inclusion is -- technically speaking -- anybody's wild guess.

 

The 36,000 number, it turns out, was pulled out of thin air. It has no scientific validity whatsoever, even according to the CDC's own standards.

 

I tracked down the origins of this number on CDC.gov, by the way. Turns out it was an estimate derived by the CDC in 2003 (http://www.cdc.gov/od/oc/media/pres...).

 

It's an estimate, mind you, not a "confirmed" number of deaths. And that estimate has stayed exactly the same through 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008 and 2009. Not a budge. Before the number was 36,000, it was 20,000 for many years. That tells you right off the bat this isn't some confirmed laboratory number -- it's a guesstimate!

 

I'm not disagreeing with the number. It's probably a fairly accurate guess (the CDC folks are a smart bunch). But it doesn't meet the criteria by which these infectious disease organizations report influenza deaths.

 

As the CDC even says on their own website, "This estimate came from a 2003 study published in the Journal of the American Medication Association (JAMA), which looked at the 1990-91 through the 1998-99 flu seasons [10]. Statistical modeling was used to estimate how many flu-related deaths occurred among people whose underlying cause of death on their death certificate was listed as a respiratory or circulatory disease. During these years, the number of estimated deaths ranged from 17,000 to 52,000."

 

In other words, they took a look at how many people died from respiratory or circulatory disease, and from that they extrapolated "flu-related deaths."

 

This is all accomplished through "statistical modeling," which is the equivalent of statisticians waving magic wands to create new numbers where none exist. Based on the sample size, it can be quite accurate (plus or minus a few percentage points), or it can be way off base depending on the accuracy of the statistical sample.

 

Notably, if the same methodology were used to calculate swine flu deaths, it might currently show 300 or more deaths (and such methodologies would be widely criticized, of course, for being "just wild guesses," which they are).

 

As the CDC admits itself, "CDC does not know exactly how many people die from flu each year."

 

And... "It has been recognized for many years that influenza is infrequently listed on death certificates [12] and testing for influenza infections usually not done, particularly among the elderly who are at greatest risk of influenza complications and death. Some deaths – particularly in the elderly – are associated with secondary complications of influenza (including bacterial pneumonias)." (http://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/diseas...)

 

In other words: Influenza isn't listed on death certificates and influenza testing isn't even done on most patients! Thus, it is not possible for these 36,000 influenza deaths to be confirmed at all.

 

Swine flu may escape detection, too

What else is interesting in all this is when the CDC explains that viral strains aren't even detectable in patients after the first few days of infection:

 

"Influenza virus infection may not be identified in many instances because influenza virus is only detectable for a short period of time and many people don't seek medical care until after the first few days of acute illness." - The CDC

 

If this is true, then isn't it also true that most swine flu patients can NEVER be confirmed in a lab?

 

I find this quite curious, because according to what the CDC is saying here, it is impossible to ever get an accurate "confirmed" count of swine flu patients because the influenza virus isn't detectable after a "short period of time." Thus, by limiting swine flu death reports to only those patients who have been confirmed in a laboratory, the CDC is essentially eliminating the very possibility that many swine flu patients will ever be tested and identified as carrying the strain.

 

Put another way, the criteria for identifying and reporting swine flu deaths is, itself, limiting the number of swine flu deaths that will ever be counted. Essentially, the system is rigged to under-report swine flu deaths by eliminating anyone who wasn't tested in time to identify the strain.

 

This, I believe, is why the swine flu death count remains magically low even as doctors on the ground in Mexico City are reporting much larger numbers of real-world swine flu deaths.

 

Different strains

The other important thing to realize here is that the 36,000 figure is not talking about just one strain of influenza: It's a cumulative figure from ALL the other strains of influenza combined!

 

"Regular flu," you see, isn't just one flu. It's a collection of potentially hundreds of different flu strains. So assigning the 36,000 deaths a year figure to "regular flu" is misleading because it makes it sound like a single strain of influenza.

 

The truth is that nobody really knows how many deaths each year occur from the different strains of flu circulating in the wild. Some top-notch CDC officials can probably take a pretty good guess at it, but it's still just that: A guess. The real numbers are, frankly, unknown.

 

It's also unknown how many people die from the viral load vs. how many die from secondary infections (such as bacterial pneumonia) that often follow viral infections. Technically, a lot of those 36,000 people (or so) might have been killed by various strains of common bacteria, not by the viruses.

 

Yesterday morning, Mexico was reporting 159 deaths from swine flu. According to the WHO, that number is only 7. How does 159 magically become 7? By including the word "confirmed" in front of it.

 

Fine. Let's all go with the "confirmed" modifier. All infectious disease deaths must now be confirmed in a CDC or WHO laboratory in order to count. So that means the 36,000 number needs to be revised down to however many have been "confirmed" in that group.

 

And how many is that? Only the CDC knows. I'm guessing it's a two-digit number.

 

So much for the myth of "36,000 flu-related deaths a year." If you believe that number, I'm sure there's a job waiting for you at the U.S. Treasury Dept., too, where numbers are materialized out of thin air on a daily basis in order to finance the national debt."

[Janet in WA]

I was never very fearful, and didn't pay much attention to what the media was reporting. But over the past few months, I've known people (including my son and his girlfriend) who have had swine flu. It really wasn't any worse (and was actually much milder) than other cases of the flu they'd had. So now, I guess you could say I'm even less fearful than I might ever have been -- and still not paying any attention to the media coverage. I just don't see the point of being "fearful", even if the swine flu is a dangerous as the media seems to be reporting.

Edited August 2, 2009 by Janet in WA

[Perry]

 

And how many is that? Only the CDC knows. I'm guessing it's a two-digit number.

 

So much for the myth of "36,000 flu-related deaths a year." If you believe that number, I'm sure there's a job waiting for you at the U.S. Treasury Dept., too, where numbers are materialized out of thin air on a daily basis in order to finance the national debt."

 

 

 

Effect Measure had a good post about this issue awhile back. Here's a snippet.

There is no question that people die of flu during flu outbreaks. It is also true that mortality from all causes waxes and wanes throughout the year in a more or less regular wave-like pattern, worse in the winter than the summer. During a moderate or bad flu season, however, the regular wave will have a spike in it corresponding to a flu outbreak. Those are excess deaths that are occurring during a heavy flu season that don't occur at other times of the year. One of the earliest approaches to estimating the mortality from flu, Serfling's method, was to estimate what would be expected during the winter if the regular wave-like background were the only deaths and subtract that off from what is seen in a bad flu season (I am leaving out some technical details). In other words, the spike is excess mortality during a flu outbreak. We use this because when there is a recognized (by laboratory means) flu outbreak, the excess deaths during that period have a much higher probability of being the flu deaths.

................

 

There have been modifications and elaborations of Serflings method and in recent years some additional methods that make use of information about the prevalence of influenza positive cases of influenza-like illnesses provided on a weekly basis by the CDC influenza surveillance system. The new standard is due to Thompson et al. and was used by Jon Dushoff, Lone Simonsen and colleagues may be highly relevant to the current H1N1/2009 outbreak. In a paper in 2006 in the American Journal of Epidemiology they used regression analyses and subtype specific prevalence data to again make estimates of the excess mortality contributed by influenza. The results wereconsistent with the classical Serfling method, arrived at by a different means, an average excess mortality from flu in the years 1979 to 2001 of roughly 41,000. This number is not so informative, however, when we realize that the distribution of excess deaths year by year is probably multimodal, i.e., not some smooth and symmetrical bell-shaped curve with the average in the middle, but a jagged picture with several different peaks and valleys. That means that some years are far below 41,000 and others much above it, for all deaths from all causes related to influenza.

Table 2 in the Dushoff paper (p. 185) shows a very interesting tally of all estimated deaths for the two seasonal flu subtypes (H1N1, H3N2) and influenza B. Of the 41,000 deaths, H3N2 is the nastiest, contributing (annual average over the 23 years) 29,000 of the estimated 41,000 deaths. Influenza B comes next: 8500. Bringing up the rear is the seasonal flu subtype H1N1: just under 4000. This means that the seasonal flu subtype H1N1 is by far the least virulent, less than a seventh of the estimated mortality burden of the other seasonal flu subtype, H3N2, by this method. What there is about the seasonal H1N1 that makes it less virulent (or conversely, what there is about H3N2 that makes it nasty) we don't know, but it appears that the current swine-origin H1N1 is more like its seasonal cousin. On the other hand, the 1918 virus was also H1N1.

 

While it's true that 36,000 is an estimate, I strongly disagree with the conclusion that it's pulled out of thin air. Edited August 2, 2009 by Perry

[Blessedfamily]

Wow. So much info about how they come up with the number of flu deaths. You learn something new all the time. Thanks folks.