swine flu

[Crissy]

I too could not view it after signing into google. Please share with us.

 

 

I can't open the link. Could you Copy/paste the text?

Melissa

 

I'll find a way to post the pdf online and give a new link...

[Ohdanigirl]

Does anybody know why schools all along the border haven't been shut down? I am in San Diego now and all the schools are open, but it concerns me because thousands of children cross the border each day to go to the schools on the American side (both pubilc and private). I know there are no confirmed cases in Tijuana, but people travel there each day from all over the world and could infect a family member/person who goes to school in the U.S.

 

Danille

[hillfarm]

Perry, or anyone else with specific immunological knowledge,

 

I read on one site that N95 masks should be changed twice a day. Can they be reused? Why do they have a certain "time limit"? If it has to do with trapped flu viruses, can they be recharged somewhat by being placed outside in the sun or handled in some other way that would kill the virii?

 

Which brings me to...how long does this virus last outside a host? If it contaminates a counter top or whatever, how long could it lay there in the dry air and still be viable? Also, would vinegar destroy it due to pH issues like it does salmonella? If I don't have any fancy virucide here at home would a regular chlorine bleach spray be effective in killing the virus?

 

TIA!

[fshinkevich]

Santa Clara County (San Jose, California) just closed it's first high school until May 6th due to suspected Swine Flu.

 

These are the things that are making me pay attention - they hate for you to miss even an hour for a dental exam. Shutting down schools for days, or weeks at a time is a big deal.

[Crissy]

This is a document that was sent to my husband. I thought it might be of interest to some here.

 

Here is a better link...

[Perry]

Perry, or anyone else with specific immunological knowledge,

 

I read on one site that N95 masks should be changed twice a day. Can they be reused? Why do they have a certain "time limit"? If it has to do with trapped flu viruses, can they be recharged somewhat by being placed outside in the sun or handled in some other way that would kill the virii?

 

Which brings me to...how long does this virus last outside a host? If it contaminates a counter top or whatever, how long could it lay there in the dry air and still be viable? Also, would vinegar destroy it due to pH issues like it does salmonella? If I don't have any fancy virucide here at home would a regular chlorine bleach spray be effective in killing the virus?

 

TIA!

 

N95 masks are supposed to be single use, but realistically that isn't practical. We'd run out overnight if people discarded them that quickly.

 

Here is some helpful information about reusing the masks.

 

Influenza viruses can probably survive outside the body for up to 48 hours, depending on the surface and environmental conditions. They last longer in cool dry air, and on hard surfaces like countertops and doorknobs.

 

Hanging used masks in the sun for several days sounds like a good idea.

[Melissa in FL]

Here is a better link...

 

Thank you, this was interesting! :001_smile:

Melissa

[Perry]

Perry, or anyone else with specific immunological knowledge,

 

Also, would vinegar destroy it due to pH issues like it does salmonella? If I don't have any fancy virucide here at home would a regular chlorine bleach spray be effective in killing the virus?

 

TIA!

 

I'm not sure if vinegar is effective against influenza viruses, but a bleach solution will definitely disinfect surfaces.

[momof2boys]

I have only read a few of the posts, but I think that people need to be concerned about this. I know that there are people who die every year with the "regular" flu but I personally believe that the reason there are not more people who die from it is because there is a flu vaccine. Plus most people take extra precautions during the flu season. The swine flu may or may not end up being a big problem. However, I think that we do need to be wary of it and to avoid being in large crowds and eating out right now. People need to use common sense and use good handwashing techniques and avoid people who are ill.

Personally my family does not take chances on something like this. We stay out of the public if at all possible. My husband has to go to work but is only in a building with 2 other people and they each have their own office. he has been conducting his meetings as phone conferences in order to avoid large groups.

You can't avoid contact with people altogether I realize but limiting contact just makes sense too me.

Just my opinion, not intending to offend anyone.

Gloria

[Perry]

I'm asking this question question sincerely.

 

Perry, why is a little boy who is from Mexico (where everyone admits the flu is more aggressive) becoming upset by his death as if it indicates something for the U.S., as if "okay, now everything's bad folks!")

 

It would seem to me (someone with no scientific brain cells) that we would conclude that he had the more aggressive flu from Mexico and so would lump his poor death in with the other Mexican deaths.

 

I hope I'm making sense. Of course, every human being matters -- I'm just trying to figure out if we're supposed to stay in or not.

 

The boy in our suburb is recovering fine. He was in the Sacramento Bee this a.m. smiling w/ his mom.

 

Alicia

 

Well, you're right that where the child acquired the flu is more important than where he died. The death will be recorded as a US death, because that's just the way tracking is done- it would be impossible to track every case and figure out where the person became infected. It's not a perfect system; there will always be some misclassification, but it's the best we can do.

 

I don't watch TV, so I don't know what they're saying about it. If they're indicating things have changed significantly because of this child's death, that isn't accurate.

 

As far as we know right now, there is not a "Mexican strain" and an "American strain". The preliminary info is they are identical viruses, although I don't think they have the whole thing sequenced yet. So it is a mystery why Americans aren't dying and Mexicans are.

[Supertechmom]

That link was interesting. But now I am having a stupid moment.:) Every year, the nurses and drs around here say they are swamped with flu cases. The ped offices say they are swamped with ped flu cases. Hospitals run over with high flu admittance. School teachers ask for prayer every year during flu season because half the high school class is out sick or hacking all over the class room. My hubby's group always has adults that are sick and down and out with the flu. EVERY YEAR. Every year, they mention they really should close the schools for a couple of weeks to let the flu settle out and everyone recover. But they don't.

 

So what is the difference between normal and this? I know everyone keeps pointing out that this is affecting young people. Well, they get sick every year. I know the big difference is flu should have stopped at this point and be over. But other than that, I don't through my layman's eyes see any difference between this and the last flu season. What am I missing???I understand that the wrong group of people in Mexico are dying from this. But that isn't happening here. And Mexico has their own issues that could contribute to the deaths. The lady on the news was trying to explain the toddler's death was significant because they were toddlers. And even the announcer seemed puzzled because most of us consider that to be the young group that normally would die from flu. She was trying to explain that the toddler was too old to be considered really young and thus was unusual.

 

AM i just being dunce here or am I missing a big piece of the understanding?:confused: Or is it just that this is new? will it settle into our "normal" flu and just start cycling around and thus not be a threat? iS the whole threat the "newness" factor??

 

Thanks. I'm always the one who hibernates during flu season and won't even go to church during the worst of it. So if I need to hunker down and hibernate again, I will. But I really want to understand how the risks are so vastly different. It seems to be acting like "normal" flu. Even NY said they would stop testing everyone other than the really sick because they were not seeing a significant difference in the rate of infection with this vs normal.

[Perry]

Hey guy. Just wanted to let you know that the loca news just announced suspected swine flu cases in Mira Mesa, Ca. near in San Diego County. I am sorry, I don't have the numbers off hand. Oddly, I have heard of no cases, suspected or otherwse just accross the border in Tijuana.

 

Perry, is it possible that some people may be carriers that show no symptoms. Reports ave said that some of the confirmed cases have no connection to Mexico, or any one in Mexico. Just wondering. I mean you could still run in to someone who flew in from Mexico at the grocery store without knowing, but I heard of this sortof thing before. Wasn't sure if it was possible with this.

 

IIRC, only about 50% of those who are infected with influenza virus become sick. So there are definitely asymptomatic cases. It's unlikely that they are contagious though- or if they are, they wouldn't be shedding nearly as much virus as someone who is symptomatic.

[Tree House Academy]

That link was interesting. But now I am having a stupid moment.:) Every year, the nurses and drs around here say they are swamped with flu cases. The ped offices say they are swamped with ped flu cases. Hospitals run over with high flu admittance. School teachers ask for prayer every year during flu season because half the high school class is out sick or hacking all over the class room. My hubby's group always has adults that are sick and down and out with the flu. EVERY YEAR. Every year, they mention they really should close the schools for a couple of weeks to let the flu settle out and everyone recover. But they don't.

 

So what is the difference between normal and this? I know everyone keeps pointing out that this is affecting young people. Well, they get sick every year. I know the big difference is flu should have stopped at this point and be over. But other than that, I don't through my layman's eyes see any difference between this and the last flu season. What am I missing???I understand that the wrong group of people in Mexico are dying from this. But that isn't happening here. And Mexico has their own issues that could contribute to the deaths. The lady on the news was trying to explain the toddler's death was significant because they were toddlers. And even the announcer seemed puzzled because most of us consider that to be the young group that normally would die from flu. She was trying to explain that the toddler was too old to be considered really young and thus was unusual.

 

AM i just being dunce here or am I missing a big piece of the understanding?:confused: Or is it just that this is new? will it settle into our "normal" flu and just start cycling around and thus not be a threat? iS the whole threat the "newness" factor??

 

Thanks. I'm always the one who hibernates during flu season and won't even go to church during the worst of it. So if I need to hunker down and hibernate again, I will. But I really want to understand how the risks are so vastly different. It seems to be acting like "normal" flu. Even NY said they would stop testing everyone other than the really sick because they were not seeing a significant difference in the rate of infection with this vs normal.

 

I feel the same way you do...and now they are even starting to report similar sentiments on CNN.com and other news media. I think, at least at first, the issue was "why are people dying in Mexico?" They still aren't sure..but they are now leaning more toward unsanitary conditions and lack of good medical care than they are toward things like cytokine storm, etc. But again, the "fear" is caused by the unknown and there is still a lot that we just don't know yet.

[Sara R]

I'm asking this question question sincerely.

 

Perry, why is a little boy who is from Mexico (where everyone admits the flu is more aggressive) becoming upset by his death as if it indicates something for the U.S., as if "okay, now everything's bad folks!")

 

It would seem to me (someone with no scientific brain cells) that we would conclude that he had the more aggressive flu from Mexico and so would lump his poor death in with the other Mexican deaths.

 

 

FWIW, a commenter on the Effect Measure blog (recommended above by Perry) agrees with you:

national origin is important to epidemiologists. I don't like the fact that this particular fatality is bandied about as the first US fatality. It's NOT. It's a Mexican fatality....Speaking from experience, I have investigated cases of other things almost to completion, but when I find out that the patient lives outside the lines we have drawn for our jurisdiction, I have to abort operations immediately and fax my work to the appropriate health officer.

[Tree House Academy]

The CDC lists the Mexican child as a US death statistic. GAH! http://www.cdc.gov/swineflu/ And MANY states that were not involved in the spread yesterday are now listed.

 

 

States

 

 

 

Arizona 1

California 14

Indiana 1

Kansas 2

Massachusetts 2

Michigan 2

Nevada 1

New York 51

Ohio 1

Texas 16 Deaths 1

TOTAL COUNTS 91 cases 1 death

[Perry]

That link was interesting. But now I am having a stupid moment.:) Every year, the nurses and drs around here say they are swamped with flu cases. The ped offices say they are swamped with ped flu cases. Hospitals run over with high flu admittance. School teachers ask for prayer every year during flu season because half the high school class is out sick or hacking all over the class room. My hubby's group always has adults that are sick and down and out with the flu. EVERY YEAR. Every year, they mention they really should close the schools for a couple of weeks to let the flu settle out and everyone recover. But they don't.

 

So what is the difference between normal and this? I know everyone keeps pointing out that this is affecting young people. Well, they get sick every year. I know the big difference is flu should have stopped at this point and be over. But other than that, I don't through my layman's eyes see any difference between this and the last flu season. What am I missing???I understand that the wrong group of people in Mexico are dying from this. But that isn't happening here. And Mexico has their own issues that could contribute to the deaths. The lady on the news was trying to explain the toddler's death was significant because they were toddlers. And even the announcer seemed puzzled because most of us consider that to be the young group that normally would die from flu. She was trying to explain that the toddler was too old to be considered really young and thus was unusual.

 

AM i just being dunce here or am I missing a big piece of the understanding?:confused: Or is it just that this is new? will it settle into our "normal" flu and just start cycling around and thus not be a threat? iS the whole threat the "newness" factor??

 

Thanks. I'm always the one who hibernates during flu season and won't even go to church during the worst of it. So if I need to hunker down and hibernate again, I will. But I really want to understand how the risks are so vastly different. It seems to be acting like "normal" flu. Even NY said they would stop testing everyone other than the really sick because they were not seeing a significant difference in the rate of infection with this vs normal.

 

We've known for years a few things about flu:

 

 

• Pandemics originate in animals (pigs or birds) and jump to humans. This is different than the usual seasonal flu, which just keeps circulating in humans but changes gradually over time.

• Pandemics range in severity from a little worse than usual seasonal flu to devastating.

• If we had a flu similar to the 1918 flu, it would be devastating. That flu originated in either pigs or birds, depending on whose research you read.

• The 1918 flu especially liked to kill people age 20 to 40. That is very unusual. In a typical year, less than 5% of flu deaths are in people under age 65.

 

When this situation started, we saw too many similarities to the 1918 flu. It appears to have come from pigs. It started at the end of the usual flu season. It was killing people almost exclusively ages 20-40.

 

In the first days of any epidemic, there is lots of confusion. There are political pressures and issues, different agencies are getting different and often conflicting information, and it's impossible to really ascertain what is happening until you get a bunch of feet on the ground and start collecting data and doing lab analyses. That all takes a considerable amount of time.

 

The initial information indicated that this flu was acting similarly to the 1918 flu. Naturally, public health needed to act swiftly.

 

In the last couple days, things are looking a bit more reassuring. We are getting a better sense of the numbers, and the case fatality rate may not be as bad as was initially feared. While people continue to die in Mexico, that isn't happening in the US and elsewhere. Why? No one knows yet. Different risk factors, different climate, different strain- those things will eventually be figured out.

 

The flu virus is unpredictable. It may be that this will turn out to be similar to the seasonal flu, and we will discover some risk factor unique to Mexicans that we can address. It could be that the virus will follow the pattern of the 1918 Spanish flu, with a second wave coming later that will be drastically worse than this initial wave. Or it could die out, never to reappear.

 

So in a nutshell, it's because of the initial similarities to the Spanish flu, and the potential for a repeat of 1918 that has public health taking this so seriously.

[Jen in PA]

I do online tutoring for a school in Chicago that now has a confirmed case. I'm still not seeing that one on some news sites, but the school district has it on their site.

[Highereducation]

The CDC lists the Mexican child as a US death statistic. GAH! http://www.cdc.gov/swineflu/ And MANY states that were not involved in the spread yesterday are now listed.

 

 

States

 

 

 

Arizona 1

California 14

Indiana 1

Kansas 2

Massachusetts 2

Michigan 2

Nevada 1

New York 51

Ohio 1

Texas 16 Deaths 1

TOTAL COUNTS 91 cases 1 death

 

My local paper is claiming 5 cases here in NJ - I wonder why that's not on the list?

[Tree House Academy]

CDC seems to be a bit slow in reporting. This was also last updated around 11am est, if that makes a difference.

[Cathy in IL]

The Chicago area has 9 suspected cases. They define suspected as 99% likely. They have completed initial testing and should have final results in a day. The 12 year old who was the initial Chicago case is now hospitalized, but they did not report what complications led to his admission.

[fivetails]

Three more in Ontario...

 

Three more cases of swine flu have been confirmed in the province, all in the Toronto area, health officials in Ontario announced Wednesday.

 

 

Dr. David Williams, the chief medical health officer, announced that three women in their 20s have been diagnosed with mild cases of the respiratory illness.

[KayT]

WHO just raised the alert level to a 5, there are 6 levels. This level means that they feel a pandemic is imminent. The increase to Phase 5 means there is enough evidence that the virus is spreading from human to human in at least two countries.

 

 

On a side note I went to Walmart and Sams to get some alcohol hand cleaner for dh and they said they were sold out. Sams said a man had come in and bought the entire pallet.

Edited April 29, 2009 by KayT

[DarlaS]

I have a feeling that term isn't what I want.. makes 'em sound like walmart sneakers for heaven's sake. What do I want? They aren't immigrants, because they aren't immigrating... temporary out of country workers? That's a mouthful LOL..workers from Mexico?

 

Migrant workers. Don't you just hate it when you can't think of a word?

[Ohdanigirl]

IIRC, only about 50% of those who are infected with influenza virus become sick. So there are definitely asymptomatic cases. It's unlikely that they are contagious though- or if they are, they wouldn't be shedding nearly as much virus as someone who is symptomatic.

 

Thanks, This is a concern since we live in Mexico.

[jonesloonybin]

WHO just raised the alert level to a 5, there are 6 levels. This level means that they feel a pandemic is imminent. The increase to Phase 5 means there is enough evidence that the virus is spreading from human to human in at least two countries.

quote]

 

Where did you hear that about WHO? I just checked their webpage and it still says level 4.

[Heather in WI]

Where did you hear that about WHO? I just checked their webpage and it still says level 4.

 

http://www.reuters.com/article/topNews/idUSTRE53N22820090429

 

World Health Organization Director-General Dr. Margaret Chan raised the pandemic threat awareness level to 5 on Wednesday, meaning the world is at imminent risk of a pandemic from H1N1 swine flu.

[JenneinCA]

There are two schools near here that have been closed because of concerns about this flu. Many people are on edge. So far my kids' classes have not been canceled, but the next time we need to go out is on Friday for my ds8's piano class. I don't know what will be going on by then.

 

Is there any guess as to how long this state of concern will last? Are we going to be on high germ alert for days or weeks or longer? Are we looking the classes being canceled for the rest of the semester? Or am I just over reacting?

[KayT]

WHO just raised the alert level to a 5, there are 6 levels. This level means that they feel a pandemic is imminent. The increase to Phase 5 means there is enough evidence that the virus is spreading from human to human in at least two countries.

quote]

 

Where did you hear that about WHO? I just checked their webpage and it still says level 4.

 

 

I was watching Dr. Chen live on CNN.

[Alicia64]

Okay, Perry, speak nice and slow for those of us who are science challenged.

 

Why is WHO putting this to a 5 if nobody is dying in the U.S. and it appears to be mild among those who have it?

 

We don't have a TV so I'm not getting the minute-by-minute updates on it.

 

As a homeschooler I was relatively housebound before but we at least got out to sports, library, park etc. I don't want to just stay home! The house just isn't that interesting.

 

Thanks for everything, Perry, you've been awesome!

 

Alicia

[Aubrey]

Okay, Perry, speak nice and slow for those of us who are science challenged.

 

Why is WHO putting this to a 5 if nobody is dying in the U.S. and it appears to be mild among those who have it?

 

We don't have a TV so I'm not getting the minute-by-minute updates on it.

 

As a homeschooler I was relatively housebound before but we at least got out to sports, library, park etc. I don't want to just stay home! The house just isn't that interesting.

 

Thanks for everything, Perry, you've been awesome!

 

Alicia

 

Hopefully Perry will have more to say, but my sis says level 5 means that the virus has been confirmed in 3 or more countries. She was saying this morning that a level 4 wasn't very believable, considering all the places it's now suspected. She was arguing then that it should already be at a 6.

 

I don't know, though, how fatalities play into those #s. From what she said, that would have no bearing on the level of pandemic at which it's rated. If that sounds like English. :001_huh:

[Perry]

Okay, Perry, speak nice and slow for those of us who are science challenged.

 

Why is WHO putting this to a 5 if nobody is dying in the U.S. and it appears to be mild among those who have it?

 

We don't have a TV so I'm not getting the minute-by-minute updates on it.

 

As a homeschooler I was relatively housebound before but we at least got out to sports, library, park etc. I don't want to just stay home! The house just isn't that interesting.

 

Thanks for everything, Perry, you've been awesome!

 

Alicia

 

Here are WHO pandemic stages:

Stages of a Pandemic

The World Health Organization (WHO) has developed a global influenza preparedness plan, which defines the stages of a pandemic, outlines the role of WHO, and makes recommendations for national measures before and during a pandemic. The phases are:

Interpandemic period

 

Phase 1 : No new influenza virus subtypes have been detected in humans. An influenza virus subtype that has caused human infection may be present in animals. If present in animals, the risk of human infection or disease is considered to be low.

Phase 2: No new influenza virus subtypes have been detected in humans. However, a circulating animal influenza virus subtype poses a substantial risk of human disease.

Pandemic alert period

 

Phase 3: Human infection(s) with a new subtype but no human-to-human spread, or at most rare instances of spread to a close contact.

Phase 4: Small cluster(s) with limited human-to-human transmission but spread is highly localized, suggesting that the virus is not well adapted to humans.

Phase 5: Larger cluster(s) but human-to-human spread still localized, suggesting that the virus is becoming increasingly better adapted to humans but may not yet be fully transmissible (substantial pandemic risk).

Pandemic period

 

Phase 6: Pandemic: increased and sustained transmission in general population.

Notes: The distinction between phases 1 and 2 is based on the risk of human infection or disease resulting from circulating strains in animals. The distinction is based on various factors and their relative importance according to current scientific knowledge. Factors may include pathogenicity in animals and humans, occurrence in domesticated animals and livestock or only in wildlife, whether the virus is enzootic or epizootic, geographically localized or widespread, and other scientific parameters.

The distinction among phases 3, 4, and 5 is based on an assessment of the risk of a pandemic. Various factors and their relative importance according to current scientific knowledge may be considered. Factors may include rate of transmission, geographical location and spread, severity of illness, presence of genes from human strains (if derived from an animal strain), and other scientific parameters.

 

Because of H5N1, there has been a huge emphasis on pandemic planning. The stages of a pandemic were clearly defined several years ago, along with what type of response goes along with each stage. You'll notice that numbers (how many cases, how many deaths) aren't used to determine levels. Instead, they look at patterns of disease and how it is spreading.

Here is the definition of a pandemic:

A pandemic is a global disease outbreak. A flu pandemic occurs when a new influenza virus emerges for which people have little or no immunity and for which there is no vaccine. The disease spreads easily person-to-person, causes serious illness, and can sweep across the country and around the world in very short time.

So it would be possible to have a pandemic with very few deaths, but it would still be a pandemic.

 

 

For the past few years (until a couple days ago) we were at level 3, because of the H5N1 virus. That's where everyone was looking, although public health has said all along that the next pandemic could be from a completely different virus.

[Perry]

Hopefully Perry will have more to say, but my sis says level 5 means that the virus has been confirmed in 3 or more countries. She was saying this morning that a level 4 wasn't very believable, considering all the places it's now suspected. She was arguing then that it should already be at a 6.

 

I don't know, though, how fatalities play into those #s. From what she said, that would have no bearing on the level of pandemic at which it's rated. If that sounds like English. :001_huh:

 

I thought they should have skipped 4 and gone straight to 5. But they didn't ask me. :D

[Highereducation]

There are allegedly a few more cases in NJ, but they're not saying where.

[Tree House Academy]

There are also allegedly cases in North Carolina that are just out there dangling. I think it is likely safe to say there is a bit of it about everywhere. Just wonder how many people could care less about being one of the "cases" and didn't go to the doc. I know that if I or my kids get it, we will not run out to be counted. We will deal with it here at home and go to the doc only if the need arises (dehydration, trouble breathing, etc).

[Highereducation]

I'm starting to really appreciate the fact that we have a doctor's office as our neighbor, not 20 feet from my front door.:001_smile:

 

Then again, am I going to be sitting here wondering who's going in and what do they have? Eek.

[MomLovesClassics]

Not sure if anyone posted these maps, I know the google map was posted.

 

http://healthmap.org/swineflu

 

www.swineflumaps.com

[Tree House Academy]

Errr..that could be good or bad. LOL Good because there is a doc right there. Bad because other people bring their germs to the doctor.

[KayT]

This is Dr. Chen's statement that I watched on CNN:

 

http://www.who.int/mediacentre/news/statements/2009/h1n1_20090429/en/index.html

 

 

Statement by WHO Director-General, Dr Margaret Chan

29 April 2009

Swine influenza

 

Ladies and gentlemen,

Based on assessment of all available information, and following several expert consultations, I have decided to raise the current level of influenza pandemic alert from phase 4 to phase 5.

Influenza pandemics must be taken seriously precisely because of their capacity to spread rapidly to every country in the world.

 

 

 

On the positive side, the world is better prepared for an influenza pandemic than at any time in history.

Preparedness measures undertaken because of the threat from H5N1 avian influenza were an investment, and we are now benefitting from this investment.

For the first time in history, we can track the evolution of a pandemic in real-time.

I thank countries who are making the results of their investigations publicly available. This helps us understand the disease.

I am impressed by the work being done by affected countries as they deal with the current outbreaks.

I also want to thank the governments of the USA and Canada for their support to WHO, and to Mexico.

Let me remind you. New diseases are, by definition, poorly understood. Influenza viruses are notorious for their rapid mutation and unpredictable behaviour.

WHO and health authorities in affected countries will not have all the answers immediately, but we will get them.

WHO will be tracking the pandemic at the epidemiological, clinical, and virological levels.

The results of these ongoing assessments will be issued as public health advice, and made publicly available.

All countries should immediately activate their pandemic preparedness plans. Countries should remain on high alert for unusual outbreaks of influenza-like illness and severe pneumonia.

At this stage, effective and essential measures include heightened surveillance, early detection and treatment of cases, and infection control in all health facilities.

This change to a higher phase of alert is a signal to governments, to ministries of health and other ministries, to the pharmaceutical industry and the business community that certain actions should now be undertaken with increased urgency, and at an accelerated pace.

I have reached out to donor countries, to UNITAID, to the GAVI Alliance, the World Bank and others to mobilize resources.

I have reached out to companies manufacturing antiviral drugs to assess capacity and all options for ramping up production.

I have also reached out to influenza vaccine manufacturers that can contribute to the production of a pandemic vaccine.

The biggest question, right now, is this: how severe will the pandemic be, especially now at the start?

It is possible that the full clinical spectrum of this disease goes from mild illness to severe disease. We need to continue to monitor the evolution of the situation to get the specific information and data we need to answer this question.

From past experience, we also know that influenza may cause mild disease in affluent countries, but more severe disease, with higher mortality, in developing countries.

No matter what the situation is, the international community should treat this as a window of opportunity to ramp up preparedness and response.

Above all, this is an opportunity for global solidarity as we look for responses and solutions that benefit all countries, all of humanity. After all, it really is all of humanity that is under threat during a pandemic.

As I have said, we do not have all the answers right now, but we will get them.

Thank you.

[JFSinIL]

Two Kane Country school closed due to probable swine flu.... sigh. That is my county here in Illinois. I was just at the Chicago Tribune website.

[Only me]

I also live in Kane County.

[Tammyla]

I just wanted to thank Perry, for your information and time here.

Edited April 29, 2009 by Tammyla

[Tree House Academy]

Looking at the second of the two maps recently posted, it looks now like there are cases just about everywhere. As people are becoming more and more aware of it, more and more are being tested. I really think this has been in the US for sometime now, though. Some of the cases would just make no sense at all if it hadn't been.

[wulfbourne]

Looking at the second of the two maps recently posted, it looks now like there are cases just about everywhere. As people are becoming more and more aware of it, more and more are being tested. I really think this has been in the US for sometime now, though. Some of the cases would just make no sense at all if it hadn't been.

Considering the toddler who died in TX was hospitalized with the flu on April 8th it has to have been around at least since then.

[Tree House Academy]

I thought the toddler had been brought in this past Saturday?

[Caroline]

I thought the toddler had been brought in this past Saturday?

 

He was brought to Houston this Saturday. He arrived in Brownsville much earlier.

[Pammy]

a school district near where I live. I don"t know what to think, but it seems like either the numbers are being grossly understimated on the national news for our area or someone is flat out lying. There are at least a few hundred kids with symptoms and they are telling parents to just keep them at home unless they get dehydrated or can't breathe. What? Another person south of here is fighting for her life on a breathing machine and the hospitals are not allowing family members to come in at all.

[KidsHappen]

I know that if I or my kids get it, we will not run out to be counted. We will deal with it here at home and go to the doc only if the need arises (dehydration, trouble breathing, etc).

 

:iagree: I worry that people running to the doctor at the first sign of illness may just serve to spread the virus even more. Granted, they do have anti-virals available now but there will not be enough supply to meet demand.

[Tree House Academy]

Another person south of here is fighting for her life on a breathing machine and the hospitals are not allowing family members to come in at all.

 

Does she have swine flu (confirmed)? I suppose lots of people go into respiratory distress from other issues (asthma, etc). Family members are not allowed in either because she is critical and they are trying to stabilize her or because they don't want anyone to spread bacteria (that could cause an opportunistic infection) to her already weak system. Do you know this woman personally?

[I talk to the trees]

I have been following this thread from the beginning, and am glad we folks from such varied fields to keep us posted on relevant information. And I would like to see this discussion continue. But I recall a "chatty" thread not so long ago that was locked/deleted because it had so many pages that it was slowing down the server. At what point do "superthreads" begin to have a slowing effect on the server? Should we take this topic to a new thread so that doesn't happen? Just a thought!

 

-Robin

[Pammy]

Does she have swine flu (confirmed)? I suppose lots of people go into respiratory distress from other issues (asthma, etc). Family members are not allowed in either because she is critical and they are trying to stabilize her or because they don't want anyone to spread bacteria (that could cause an opportunistic infection) to her already weak system. Do you know this woman personally?

 

No, I don't know her personally. There is a lady in my homeschool group who works for the school district and they just had a meeting today. The health dept. rep is the one that reported this to those at the meeting. They said they are being viligant in school closures, etc because they have several probable cases. just one kid had up to 80 possible contact exposures before they got sick. The virus is actually contagious for 2 days before anyone shows symptoms. This is why it is so easily spread.

 

ETA: We are staying home for at least a week. Dh has to work but he is in the denial camp and won't wear a mask. He goes to other homes everyday to work.