swine flu

[KayT]

You can't get Tamiflu or Relenza OTC and I doubt your doc wil give you a script if you are not sick.

[KayT]

I am not sure I ever gathered what caused the majority of deaths to be among the 20-40 age range in pandemic flu situations. Can someone better explain the why of that occurance?

 

Google Cytokine Storm and Influenza and you shall have your answer...incase Perry doesn't come back to provide a better answer than me!

[Paz]

I have a suggestion for those worried about swine flu. There is a natural product called AHCC. There are many different brands but I prefer the brand name ImmPower. It actives your killer cells so they are better able to fight off infection. My dh got shingles 3 weeks ago and started taking this. His shingles are totally gone now and he has no pain. We take this at the first sign that anyone is getting sick. It's a great product!

[LNC]

I posted yesterday about and elderberry extract, Sambucol. It is selling fast but has been studied to be effective against influenza.

 

I'm staying home from church this morning with my sick child, and I'm watching the World Health Organization briefing. This is freaking me out!

[mom4him]

are you guys worried about the swine flue in Mexico?http://au.news.yahoo.com/a/-/newshome/5521820

 

I am not worried about this but I do think it is a really good time to build your immune system but cutting sugars as much as possible and upping Vit C if you are vitamin takers.

The diet we are on as a family restricts us to honey only for sweetner. We have been on this now for over 3 yrs. Our family hasn't even had a bad cold for go through our home for at least 2 1/2 yrs. It has been great!

[elise1mds]

I've read this entire thread with the thirst of a parched woman at an oasis - it's full of great information! I'm really hoping that the media are blowing everything out of proportion right now and it's not going to be as bad as everyone fears, but at the same time, with cases in Kansas and Texas (and Oklahoma sitting squarely in the middle), I can't help but worry. I just can't. Part of me wants to go out and buy face masks and do some grocery stockpiling and another part of me scoffs and says that I'm overreacting, and I can't decide which part to listen to. I am definitely grateful that the cases here in the USA have been milder so far (which means I'm probably going to listen to the 'wait and see' part of me), but who knows what's going to happen. I hate waiting!

[Perry]

I am not sure I ever gathered what caused the majority of deaths to be among the 20-40 age range in pandemic flu situations. Can someone better explain the why of that occurance?

 

The main causes of death were bacterial pneumonia and cytokine storm. Here's a current explanation of cytokine storm related to influenza.

 

Another reason for the peculiar age distribution of mortality with the Spanish flu has to do with "immunologic memory". People aged ~15 to 40 were "immunologically naive" meaning their bodies had never before seen an H1 virus, and they had no immunity at all. Prior to 1899, an H1 virus was circulating, and most people were exposed to it. In 1889-1890, a pandemic from an H2 virus began, and H1 viruses disappeared. So those born after 1890 would have had no immunity at all to an H1. It doesn't really explain why those younger than 15 weren't severely affected though. Young kids do have some immunity from maternal antibodies, but that only lasts a year or so.

 

Did that make any sense? It's complicated but I'm in a hurry and don't have time to explain further. Maybe I can elaborate when I get home tonight.

[Perry]

Perry, do you know what the incubating period on this strain is? I just spent the last 2 days with friends who spent Easter week serving in an orphanage in Mexico. I'm not exactly worried, but I am curious.

 

I've heard 1-2 days, but there is some conflicting information. It does seem to be less than 3 days.

[Perry]

If you have already had influenza this year it wouldn't protect you from getting another form would it? Would it increase your chances of getting the flu if you already had it?

 

 

There have been different strains of H1 flu viruses circulating in humans for about 30 years. There is possibly some cross-protection between different strains, but it depends on how similar the viruses are to each other. Preliminary information is that this year's vaccine isn't offering any protection, but it's really to early to say.

[Perry]

Perry, if you get a chance, could you take a look at this home treatment protocol and let me know if you think it has any merit? I'm not particularly worried about this round of flu, but feel that we ought to be prepared in general, because sooner or later one will become an issue.

 

http://www.umt.edu/curry/HealthTopics/cold-and-Flu/supportive-treatment-for-flu-colds.html

 

TIA!

 

That looks like a reputable site with good information. One other recommendation: If this becomes widespread, you may want to wear masks. If you decide to purchase masks, the N-95 respirators are better than regular facemasks. They are available at home supply stores like Menard's and Home Depot. We bought a box of 20 for about $15.

[Perry]

double post

Edited April 26, 2009 by Perry

[Perry]

Can these drugs be gotten OTC, or do you have to get them from a doctor? And can you get them just to have on hand, or do you have to be sick?

 

They are prescription only, but if the flu becomes widespread they may be distributed by public health agencies. I don't know much about how that works but will try to find out.

[jamnkats]

They are prescription only, but if the flu becomes widespread they may be distributed by public health agencies. I don't know much about how that works but will try to find out.

 

Please do. We have only 4300 doses available here for the entire Yucatan peninsula and I'm seriously considering heading to Texas just to see if I can get my hands on some. With all the narcotraficantes and politicos, I just know the average citizen and ex-pat have no hope of getting a dose should the need arise.

 

We're VERY worried here in Mexico. Very worried.

 

My eldest is sporting a fever this am - 37.5C and I've just dosed him with fish oil and Vit C. Crossing fingers.

 

If Tamiflu is not sold OTC, what is this? It is strange, living in hte land of no-presecriptions-needed, that I can't get Tamiflu from my local farmacia. :)

Edited April 26, 2009 by jamnkats

[Perry]

I defer to Perry on all swine flu virology questions from here on out.:D

 

Nooooo!

 

You have lots of great information. Keep answering!

[fivetails]

Well that didn't take long. It's been found in Canada too.

 

Canada confirmed its first cases of swine flu on Sunday, with four people said to have the virus in the eastern province of Nova Scotia, health officials said.

 

(from CNN)

 

This made me blink though.. bit of conflicting advice eh?

 

"I would tell people it's certainly not a time to panic," Gibbs told reporters. "If you're sick, stay home, get treatment, go see a doctor."

 

Stay home. Go see a doctor. Kinda hard to do BOTH. :001_huh:

[fivetails]

Make that NS and BC as well.

 

Nova Scotia and British Columbia have confirmed cases of swine flu

 

The ones in NS are students at Kings Edgehill - that's a fancy private school over there, if memory serves. One of the students had been on a school trip to Mexico. The ones in BC, doesn't say much, just two people who'd been to Mexico.

[Cathy in IL]

I just got home from the ER with my youngest. The first question the traige nurse asked was if we have been out of the country in the last three weeks or been in close contact with someone else who has. They even asked if we have left the state recently. They had a note on the computer make special note of respiratory or flu-like symptoms. I could tell they are being careful and alert.

[Tree House Academy]

I just wonder if we counted the people who got the regular old flu each year one by one like this, would it look similar? I mean, I wonder if all this isn't just a lot of media hype. I have known people in my area to get the flu just one right after the other - the school even closed for a week a few years ago because so many were out with the flu, but because we didn't count them one by one, there was no mass panic. I am a hypochondriac and I want to be totally certain this is a real threat before I freak out. KWIM?

[Willow]

Its in NZ now. A group of Auckland students went to mexico on a school trip. Got back Saturday. brought the flu with them. Thankfully they all seem to be getting better (NZ has released tamiflu for them)

 

People from both main Islands were on that flight.

[fivetails]

I just wonder if we counted the people who got the regular old flu each year one by one like this, would it look similar? I mean, I wonder if all this isn't just a lot of media hype. I have known people in my area to get the flu just one right after the other - the school even closed for a week a few years ago because so many were out with the flu, but because we didn't count them one by one, there was no mass panic. I am a hypochondriac and I want to be totally certain this is a real threat before I freak out. KWIM?

 

Yeah I was thinking about that. There was a comment buried in one of the threads to a Canadian news article that listed off a bunch of numbers for how many people die every year from "the normal flu" and stuff.. I'd link it, but I forget which article now and I don't think I could link to mid-comments anyway...the numbers were *much* bigger, though...

[margoargo]

We are in San Antonio, and just found out they are closing a high school about 30 minutes from me this week because a third student has fallen ill with what they think is the swine flu.

 

Here is my background: my oldest son (14) has special needs and attends public school. He has several different issues - one in the past was that he had a somewhat weakened immune system. (For those familiar with it - he had low IgG and IgA - though he outgrew this).

 

So - do I send him to school tomorrow? Am I crazy to even consider it? He is sitting here - as I write - asking me over and over if he is going to school (he also has autism).

[Mommyof4ks]

Not really - it sounds just like another nasty flu. Up to 35,000 folks here die already from flu (from today's Chicago Tribune). I do not think (touch wood) that this is another Spanish Influenza - just a bad strain of flu that I hope we don't catch.

 

Remember - news folk live for exciting stories. They will blast scary headlines at us to get attention and sell a story. I am sure the flu will show up in my town (large population of Hispanics - surely someone visiting from or back from a visit to Mexico has carried the germ here by now.)

 

:iagree: So far everyone infected here in the US has recovered, so apparently it is not as bad as the 'traditional' flu. I do worry a bit about my immune compromised kid, but the docs will give him tamiflu which does work on this strain of flu. The flesh eating bacteria (a form of staph) is still on the top of my concern list, but that does not make headlines anymore. This too shall fade into the shadows along with west nile which will be rearing its ugly head again around here soon. There are plenty of things to keep us up an night if we let them*sigh*.

[Alicia64]

Okay, now I'm nervous. I just learned (Sun.) that they're closing a pricey private school just down the street from our house.

 

http://cl.exct.net/?ju=fe5e1776706c007d7117&ls=fe1f1d787461067b721175&m=fefc1172766306&l=fed515747765057c&s=fe211572746d0c7a711c76&jb=ffcf14&t=

 

Perry, now what do you recommend?

 

Alicia

[Sara R]

I just wonder if we counted the people who got the regular old flu each year one by one like this, would it look similar? I mean, I wonder if all this isn't just a lot of media hype. I have known people in my area to get the flu just one right after the other - the school even closed for a week a few years ago because so many were out with the flu, but because we didn't count them one by one, there was no mass panic. I am a hypochondriac and I want to be totally certain this is a real threat before I freak out. KWIM?

 

I don't think this is a case of "the media" panicking. It seems that it's the epidemiologists that are panicking. And when experts panic, I think it's wise for regular people to pay attention.

 

As it has already been said on this thread, the difference between this flu and regular flu is that it is killing healthy people ages 20-50 in Mexico. The question is, why isn't the virus as virulent in the US (so far) as it is in Mexico? Possible reasons why include: (1) Mexico is just reporting the worst cases, and the US isn't that far progressed yet; (2) this virus' effects are worse when there is another bacteria present (maybe TB), that is more common in Mexico than the US.

[Perry]

I just wonder if we counted the people who got the regular old flu each year one by one like this, would it look similar? I mean, I wonder if all this isn't just a lot of media hype. I have known people in my area to get the flu just one right after the other - the school even closed for a week a few years ago because so many were out with the flu, but because we didn't count them one by one, there was no mass panic. I am a hypochondriac and I want to be totally certain this is a real threat before I freak out. KWIM?

 

 

It is possible that the death rates aren't all that elevated. In order to determine how "deadly" this flu is, we need to know the case fatality rate (CFR= # of deaths/# of cases). To determine CFR, you need to know how many cases there are, and that requires epidemiological studies. If many, or most, of the cases are mild, there will be many undiagnosed cases, and the CFR will be low. But no one has any of that information yet, so it's too early to make any comparisons with other epidemics. While we wait for better data, there are other reasons to be very concerned.

 

1. In the Northern Hemisphere, the flu season should be ending in March. Instead of dropping off to almost no cases, there was a sharp increase in cases, which is (almost) never seen in a typical year.
   
2. The first cases occurred as large clusters in 2 separate geographical locations, and then began to spread. That is not what you'd expect as the flu season should be winding down. It is what you see at the beginning of an epidemic though.
   
3. This is clearly a new virus. There is no question that this is not something that has been circulating before. Whenever there is a new virus, there are immunologically naive people and you see higher death rates.
   
4. Even though we don't know what the rates are yet, it is NOT typical for only those 20-40 years old to be dying. The only time we have seen this pattern is during a pandemic, as far as I know. I haven't heard anything yet about causes of death. That information will be very helpful once they release it.
   

[Melissa in Australia]

I just heard an interview on the radio of a doctor in some big hospital in Mexico city. they did mention the name of the hospital but I can't remember the name. he said there seems to be a bit of a cover up as to the actual deaths recorded. he said that there have been at least 3 deaths every day for the last month in his hospital. 80 % of the people brought in to the hospital with swine flue go straight on respirators with advanced pneumonia. and that all the staff of the hospital have been taking preventive medicine, but 2 staff have died of swine flue anyway. it really sounds scary..

we are all dosing up on huge amounts of garlic. not really sure if garlic prevents you getting the flue. but it shore keeps people away from you:lol:

[HeatherInWI]

I'm wondering if this "light" version we're having of swine flu in the U.S. will be the precursor to a slightly later big pandemic. I seem to remember reading (Perry, correct me if I'm wrong) that there were scattered deaths from the WWI flu in the spring of 1918, but that most people had pretty light cases and recovered well, but then when it hit in the fall (presumably after having mutated a bit) it was much more deadly.

[Perry]

Okay, now I'm nervous. I just learned (Sun.) that they're closing a pricey private school just down the street from our house.

 

http://cl.exct.net/?ju=fe5e1776706c007d7117&ls=fe1f1d787461067b721175&m=fefc1172766306&l=fed515747765057c&s=fe211572746d0c7a711c76&jb=ffcf14&t=

 

Perry, now what do you recommend?

 

Alicia

Well, that stinks.

 

It's hard to know what to do. There is an issue that hasn't been raised here yet but will probably eventually be discussed in the MSM. With the Spanish flu, there were three distinct waves of illness, as the virus underwent genetic changes. The first wave caused lots of illness but very little death. The second wave was highly fatal, and the third wave was less lethal. Other pandemics have occurred in waves, but the differences in mortality weren't as dramatic.

 

If this is the beginning of a pandemic, it is possible that if the case fatality rate is low, it would be better to catch the illness in the earlier waves rather than later. I am not recommending anyone deliberately get themselves or their kids infected! But avoiding infection at all costs may actually be detrimental in the long run.

 

 

On a personal level, I don't know what to do. Unless mortality is high, I don't plan to go to any extreme measures to isolate ourselves. But things are happening quickly and I may feel differently tomorrow.:confused:

[Perry]

I'm wondering if this "light" version we're having of swine flu in the U.S. will be the precursor to a slightly later big pandemic. I seem to remember reading (Perry, correct me if I'm wrong) that there were scattered deaths from the WWI flu in the spring of 1918, but that most people had pretty light cases and recovered well, but then when it hit in the fall (presumably after having mutated a bit) it was much more deadly.

 

Sorry, I didn't see your post, and I just posted something similar above. You are correct.

Edited April 27, 2009 by Perry

[fivetails]

 

As it has already been said on this thread, the difference between this flu and regular flu is that it is killing healthy people ages 20-50 in Mexico. The question is, why isn't the virus as virulent in the US (so far) as it is in Mexico? Possible reasons why include: (1) Mexico is just reporting the worst cases, and the US isn't that far progressed yet; (2) this virus' effects are worse when there is another bacteria present (maybe TB), that is more common in Mexico than the US.

 

Is there a 3) difference in available medical care/treatment/knowledge/etc ... ? .. Just wondering, I have no idea what the conditions of that kinda thing are like down there...

[Ohdanigirl]

I don't think this is a case of "the media" panicking. It seems that it's the epidemiologists that are panicking. And when experts panic, I think it's wise for regular people to pay attention.

 

As it has already been said on this thread, the difference between this flu and regular flu is that it is killing healthy people ages 20-50 in Mexico. The question is, why isn't the virus as virulent in the US (so far) as it is in Mexico? Possible reasons why include: (1) Mexico is just reporting the worst cases, and the US isn't that far progressed yet; (2) this virus' effects are worse when there is another bacteria present (maybe TB), that is more common in Mexico than the US.

 

I'd like to add that people in Mexico like to self medicate a lot (in general). You can go to any farmacia and buy what you need, or think you need. This leads to people taking drugs they shouldn't or in incorrect doses. Also when antibacterial medicines are prescribed, due to cost, most people never finish taking the amount they are suppossed to, They might buy the first bottle, begin to feel better, and not buy more to finish off the 10 days prescribed. So next time a person gets sick with the same strain, the medicine is not effective. Also, the general public doesn't always eat very well. I know this can be said about any country, but I know kids even in nice areas who never see fruit in their house, and veggies aren't exactly high on th menu in many areas. When I married my husband food caused many disagreements because he never ate vegetables on a regular basis. Nopales, or squash every so often is what the majority of people see. All these things can factor in as well.

[Tree House Academy]

In 1976, there was a similar Swine Flu scare. It amounted to nothing. http://www.capitalcentury.com/1976.html

[Perry]

In 1976, there was a similar Swine Flu scare. It amounted to nothing. http://www.capitalcentury.com/1976.html

 

Ft. Dix:

 

 

• 12 cases of respiratory illness

• 1 death

• 230 with asymptomatic infection

• 22 days

• never spread outside Ft. Dix

 

Current swine flu

 

 

• 1000 sickened and 68 (or 81, depending on the source) dead in Mexico

• Probably many more with asymptomatic infections

• 20 cases in US, 5 states

• Confirmed cases in other countries (New Zealand, Canada)

• Probable cases elsewhere (France, Spain)

• Sustained human to human transmission occurring

 

I don't think they are similar at all.

 

Update: new numbers:

Health ministry says 1,614 are hospitalized, 103 dead.

Edited April 27, 2009 by Perry

[Alicia64]

Hey Perry,

 

I totally respect your views and training, so don't take this wrong. . . but what did you mean: I am not recommending anyone deliberately get themselves or their kids infected! But avoiding infection at all costs may actually be detrimental in the long run.

 

I completely understand what you're saying in theory, but. . . now I'm at a loss for how to handle this. Especially since a school up the street just closed for swine flu investigation. (I don't know at all, but it's possible that a group from this Catholic school just visited Mexico. Just taking a shot in the dark.)

 

Of course, we homeschool so I'm planning on just staying home this week to see what happens next.

 

Could you say a little more. How fortunate it we are to have you on this forum!!

 

Alicia

[Perry]

Hey Perry,

 

I totally respect your views and training, so don't take this wrong. . . but what did you mean: I am not recommending anyone deliberately get themselves or their kids infected! But avoiding infection at all costs may actually be detrimental in the long run.

 

I completely understand what you're saying in theory, but. . . now I'm at a loss for how to handle this. Especially since a school up the street just closed for swine flu investigation. (I don't know at all, but it's possible that a group from this Catholic school just visited Mexico. Just taking a shot in the dark.)

 

Of course, we homeschool so I'm planning on just staying home this week to see what happens next.

 

Could you say a little more. How fortunate it we are to have you on this forum!!

 

Alicia

 

Because of the wave patterns of past pandemics, we might be better off getting the virus now, instead of 6 months from now. But I am having visions of chicken pox parties, where people deliberately expose their kids, and I wanted to be clear that I wasn't suggesting anything like that. But extreme isolation, which may just delay infection until the virus becomes more lethal, may also be a bad idea.

 

For now, I'm going with common sense- wash hands frequently, avoid obviously sick people, avoid crowded spaces.

[teamturner]

Because of the wave patterns of past pandemics, we might be better off getting the virus now, instead of 6 months from now. But I am having visions of chicken pox parties, where people deliberately expose their kids, and I wanted to be clear that I wasn't suggesting anything like that. But extreme isolation, which may just delay infection until the virus becomes more lethal, may also be a bad idea.

 

For now, I'm going with common sense- wash hands frequently, avoid obviously sick people, avoid crowded spaces.

 

I live in a suburb of Dallas. Should I refrain from taking my 3 yo to the child care at the gym? I usually put some hand sanitizer on her hands when we leave but she sucks her thumb and will likely put it in her mouth while she's in there. Just wondering.

[Alicia64]

Thanks Perry.

 

How long do you think it will take them to come up with a vaccine for this swine flu?

 

Thanks,

 

Alicia

[fivetails]

Ontario now too...

 

Medical authorities in Ontario are investigating a number of cases of suspected swine flu, the medical director of the province's public health laboratories said Monday.

 

Weirdly, most people I know IRL aren't concerned. I've come across:

 

1) it's just a flu

 

2) nothin' you can do about it anyway

 

3) they'll make a shot for it

 

4) just trust God

 

and then there's dh who just rolled his eyes and went back to his video game. Men!:tongue_smilie:

 

I really don't know what to think of it all...

[fivetails]

...and I keep seeing quotes like this:

 

She also advised people to stay home and contact their family physicians if ill, particularly if they've recently visited Mexico and have flu-like symptoms.

 

(I quoted another in an earlier post)

 

Take your pick - you want people to STAY HOME or you want them to go see a doc? Can't have it both ways - docs don't make house calls anymore.

[Sebastian (a lady)]

If you had just gotten over being sick with flu-like symptoms (but hadn't been to the doctor, just treated the symptoms) is there any liklihood that you had an undiagnosed case of this? Or is it like onset of labor? When you have it, you really know you have it?

 

We had something go through the family in March. I figured it for strep, but there was one day that was quite bad. (I'm still kicking myself for not taking everyone to the doctor when the kids first got sick.)

 

I guess that I'm wondering how many different strains of flu are out there at any given time under normal circumstances.

 

Sebastian

 

ps. I'm getting achy just reading this thread. It is a little like thinking about not scratching your nose.

[Sara R]

I've been reading the Effect Measure blog that Perry linked to. I think they are saying that you never see the first case of a new virus, so it's possible that people have already had this virus (but probably not likely that it is widespread, since it seems to be so connected to Mexico). It's more likely that there is a lot of what they are calling "background noise" out there--similar flus that make it harder for them to detect this new swine flu until they test for it.

[Sara R]

...and I keep seeing quotes like this:

 

Take your pick - you want people to STAY HOME or you want them to go see a doc? Can't have it both ways - docs don't make house calls anymore.

 

I assume that they want people to stay home except if they are going to the doctor. So many people try to work and send their kids to school through illness.

[fivetails]

I assume that they want people to stay home except if they are going to the doctor. So many people try to work and send their kids to school through illness.

 

True, though some haven't any choice when it comes to work..

 

We had something go through the family in March. I figured it for strep, but there was one day that was quite bad. (I'm still kicking myself for not taking everyone to the doctor when the kids first got sick.)

 

Same here - also in March..or was it early April? Anyway, knocked dd12 down flat for about a week, the rest of us not nearly as much... we never went to the doc cuz we don't have a family doc & it would have been hours in the outpatients dept.. it was sorta weird - flu/ish, but not quite. VERY sore throat, not nearly as much cough/etc as usually comes with the flu. Dd12 got a nasty headache and pukey feeling stomach with it as well, though the rest of us didn't. Fevers all 'round. Flu/ish, and the right time for the flu, but just not quite like when we'd had it before...

[Karen sn]

I just wonder if we counted the people who got the regular old flu each year one by one like this, would it look similar? I mean, I wonder if all this isn't just a lot of media hype. I have known people in my area to get the flu just one right after the other - the school even closed for a week a few years ago because so many were out with the flu, but because we didn't count them one by one, there was no mass panic. I am a hypochondriac and I want to be totally certain this is a real threat before I freak out. KWIM?

 

This crossed my mind last night.

Yes - it's a "weird" strain because of all the different aspects of its genetics.

How many weird strains are out there and we don't ever think of them?

 

I am cautious, (in the fact that I like to be prepared for anything), but to freak out every time is silly. The media is controlled. They need hype. If there really WERE serious would they want to cause panic? Are there serious issues?

 

I say yes - but you'll never on prime time hear a thing about the GM assault on our food, or the flouride in our water, or the plastic garbage in our ocean.....

They actually broadcast Paris Hiton as news.

 

So - be prepared yes! ALWAYS!

Worry - not yet.

[Tree House Academy]

If you had just gotten over being sick with flu-like symptoms (but hadn't been to the doctor, just treated the symptoms) is there any liklihood that you had an undiagnosed case of this? Or is it like onset of labor? When you have it, you really know you have it?

 

We had something go through the family in March. I figured it for strep, but there was one day that was quite bad. (I'm still kicking myself for not taking everyone to the doctor when the kids first got sick.)

 

I guess that I'm wondering how many different strains of flu are out there at any given time under normal circumstances.

 

Sebastian

 

ps. I'm getting achy just reading this thread. It is a little like thinking about not scratching your nose.

 

:iagree:

[Tree House Academy]

Ft. Dix:

 

• 12 cases of respiratory illness
  
• 1 death
  
• 230 with asymptomatic infection
  
• 22 days
  
• never spread outside Ft. Dix
  

Current swine flu

 

• 1000 sickened and 68 (or 81, depending on the source) dead in Mexico
  
• Probably many more with asymptomatic infections
  
• 20 cases in US, 5 states
  
• Confirmed cases in other countries (New Zealand, Canada)
  
• Probable cases elsewhere (France, Spain)
  
• Sustained human to human transmission occurring
  

I don't think they are similar at all.

 

Update: new numbers:

Health ministry says 1,614 are hospitalized, 103 dead.

 

 

Again, people died where? MEXICO. Out of the 81, now 100, only 20 cases have been confirmed.

 

How many people die each year in the US alone of regular flu? Hmmm...

 

 

 

Every year in the United States, on average:

• 5% to 20% of the population gets the flu;
  
• more than 200,000 people are hospitalized from flu-related complications; and
  
• about 36,000 people die from flu-related causes.
  

How many died in Mexico? Ummm, MAYBE 100. How many have died in the US? NONE. How many die every year of the regular old flu in the US alone...thirty six THOUSAND.

 

I am not saying this can't be a concern. I am not saying it won't get worse. I am not saying it is not a new strain. What I am saying is that the country is starting to panic when sickness and deaths have not even reached anything near what a normal, average flu season has reached.

 

There are almost 9 million people in Mexico city. Less than 2 thousand of those 9 million have become infected. Looks very similar to the 5 to 20 % of the population that become ill each year with the regular flu.

 

Again, all I am saying is that it is definitely not time to panic or really even get all that bent out of shape. We can talk about patterns all we want, but things were a bit different in 1918, even in 1968 than they are now, medically speaking. What was the average life span in 1918? UNDER 50! Did people routinely get medical care when they were sick. NO. They waited it out, which, with influenza related pneumonia, waiting is NOT a good idea. The media wasn't around in 1918. People had no way to really spread the word about Spanish Influenza. Life was a lot different then, and I think that comparing it to now is a bit apocalyptic.

Edited April 27, 2009 by Tree House Academy

[Alicia64]

In 1918 or 1968 they didn't have air travel the way we have it today either where a flu can be spread around the globe within days.

 

Of course, of course, of course, I hope this comes to nothing -- but it's hard to have witnessed the home loan crazy crisis in our country, the CEO's lack of ethics (Enron etc.) and not think that crazy things can happen.

 

We've just recently lived through "it'll never happen" things in our own economy. I never thought my California home would depreciate the way it has, that's for sure.

 

On the "don't panic" side, my dh who is a know-it-all because he's certain he does know-it-all says, "yes, let's have a supply of food for a week if we have to stay in, but they'll make a vaccine for this strain of flu the way the do for any strain of flu."

 

Perry: is he correct?

 

Alicia

[Tree House Academy]

In 1918 or 1968 they didn't have air travel the way we have it today either where a flu can be spread around the globe within days.

 

On the "don't panic" side, my dh who is a know-it-all because he's certain he does know-it-all says, "yes, let's have a supply of food for a week if we have to stay in, but they'll make a vaccine for this strain of flu the way the do for any strain of flu."

 

Perry: is he correct?

 

Alicia

 

Ahhh, but even with air travel, only a handful of people in other parts of the world have become infected. And, apparently, this has been going on in Mexico for a few weeks now before we even got word of it...

 

The swine flu vaccine in 1976 killed more people than the flu.

[Sara R]

Ahhh, but even with air travel, only a handful of people in other parts of the world have become infected. And, apparently, this has been going on in Mexico for a few weeks now before we even got word of it...

 

The swine flu vaccine in 1976 killed more people than the flu.

 

Yes, but it's only been, what, 4-5 days since Mexico announced anything? Time will tell what's going on.

 

The Effect Measure guys say that it's always confusing at the beginning of an epidemic. "In the context of this outbreak each of these respiratory virus cases has the potential to become a 'suspect' case. Mexico City has 1614 'cases' and 103 deaths. Not all, or even most, of the cases have been confirmed by laboratory. They are really suspect cases. Some have been confirmed, most not. Confused? Expect that, too. In the opening days and weeks of an outbreak, everyone is confused. That's why we pool our information and try to sort it out."

 

You're right; this could all blow over and be nothing (though the epidemiologists think that's unlikely). But it could be the beginning of something that could progress very quickly. Caution is warranted. Have you ever seen the movie "Outbreak"?

 

There isn't any vaccine right now because it's a brand new virus. Vaccines take about 6 months to develop, don't they?

[Tree House Academy]

That is the thing...this has been going on in Mexico for longer than we have known about and the spread has still been minimal.