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I finished filling in my May calendar this morning, and I'm sorry, but I just don't have time for the swine flu this month! Can't we reschedule this pandemic?:D

 

The worst part is just how much we are supposed to be out in public all month, what with field trips, and church concerts and theater productions. I went to Walmart this afternoon to stock up on hand sanitizer for the car, purse and the kid's backpacks ----- and they are completely sold out!!! Have been since yesterday! :001_huh:

 

I appreciate this thread and very much appreciate Perry's knowledge and insight. My 9th grader is taking Health this semester and is getting quite the crash course in influenza!

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I have a feeling that term isn't what I want.. makes 'em sound like walmart sneakers for heaven's sake. What do I want? They aren't immigrants, because they aren't immigrating... temporary out of country workers? That's a mouthful LOL..workers from Mexico?

 

Migrant workers. Don't you just hate it when you can't think of a word?

 

Ahh. But that makes 'em sound like birds! :tongue_smilie: ..eh, language is funny.

 

***************

 

There was a comment posted on a news site that caught my eye - someone was suggesting that a possibility for the excessive deaths in Mexico may be something called "viral load" .. they said that basically what that means is that the Mexican people may have been exposed to excessive amounts of the virus, or something.. makes sense, I guess - if it started there and was there in large amounts, exposure would be increased... I haven't googled this, so I don't know anything about it yet.. anyone else heard the term?

 

And I still can't get my husband to take this seriously. *head-desk*

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My 9th grader is taking Health this semester and is getting quite the crash course in influenza!

 

Yeah - fractions kinda went out the window over the last few days, but dd12 has health covered. :tongue_smilie:

 

(sidenote ~~ or perhaps this would be better as a new thread? .. Just curious, how those of you with kids old enough to ask questions have been handling the Q's? I've got one who's very curious and one who isn't really capable of understanding.. so I've got both sides of the coin. It's a fine line, trying to answer dd12's questions without putting a scare into her at the same time, y'know? )

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I friend called to say that they closed an elementary school in the town next to us - Hebron Elementary due to Swine Flu. My dh and I decided to keep our kids home from dance and youth group this evening until we know more.

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Ahh. But that makes 'em sound like birds! :tongue_smilie: ..eh, language is funny.

 

***************

 

There was a comment posted on a news site that caught my eye - someone was suggesting that a possibility for the excessive deaths in Mexico may be something called "viral load" .. they said that basically what that means is that the Mexican people may have been exposed to excessive amounts of the virus, or something.. makes sense, I guess - if it started there and was there in large amounts, exposure would be increased... I haven't googled this, so I don't know anything about it yet.. anyone else heard the term?

 

And I still can't get my husband to take this seriously. *head-desk*

 

Viral load refers to how much virus there is floating around in your body. It's true that for most viruses, the higher the exposure the sicker you are likely to get. I'm not sure why viral load would be higher in Mexico though.

 

Again, it's not really the number of deaths in Mexico that is so worrisome, it's the pattern of deaths almost exclusively in young people. If the reason people are dying in Mexico were due to health care, or nutrition, or a cofactor, or some other unknown risk factor, it should be killing older and younger people as well. And it isn't.

 

Here's what I think is happening. First of all, I think infection has probably been going on for quite some time in Mexico. There are numerous reports of people near that pig farm who were sick in February, and probably earlier. Infection is probably widespread and vastly underestimated, many magnitudes higher than what is known. Official reports are something like 1600 cases; I'm betting it's in the 100s of thousands. If there are 150,000 infections, 150 deaths is just about the same case fatality ratio as you would find with seasonal flu. So that is very reassuring.

 

If that had happened in the US, our surveillance system would have picked it up. Mexico doesn't do the kind of surveillance we do here.

 

But it still doesn't address why only younger people are dying.

 

When you see an abrupt age cutoff in mortality it is very likely to have to do with immunologic memory. In an earlier post, I mentioned that each time we have a new pandemic, it replaces the subtype that had been circulating previously. (There is one exception; I'll explain soon.) When H1N1 showed up in 1917-1918, it replaced the H2 virus that had been circulating since 1890. H1N1 then circulated (going through many gradual changes, but all the while remaining an H1) until 1957, when a new H2 suddenly appeared. This circulated until 1968, when H3 appeared and H2 disappeared. In 1977, an H1 virus, very similar to the pre-1957 virus, suddenly appeared. That is the exception- it did NOT replace the H3 that showed up in 1968, but both H1 and H3 have been co-circulating ever since. (H1 has changed quite a bit since then and doesn't much resemble the pre-1977 or pre-1957 virus anymore.)

 

Anyway, if this current swine H1 is similar to the pre-1957 H1, people born before 1957 might have enough immunity to protect themselves from getting extremely ill. That's exactly what was seen in 1918; those born prior to 1890 had immunologic "memory".

 

As an aside, many people believe that the virus that emerged in 1977 was a laboratory accident or deliberately released, because it was almost identical to the pre-1957 virus. That almost certainly could not have happened naturally.

 

 

 

(I hope you don't mind that I'm writing this under your post. I'm too tired to go back and look which post I should put this under.)

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PERRY-I just want to give you a hearty THANK YOU for shedding some light on what could otherwise be confusing. I have been following this thread from the beginning and have learned so very much from your posts. Thank you for taking the time to answer all the questions so thoroughly! :001_smile:

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Question for Perry or anyone else that may have seen an answer somewhere. How exactly did they trace the virus back to the 5yo? Speculation or certainty?

 

Barb

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Ahh. But that makes 'em sound like birds! :tongue_smilie: ..eh, language is funny.

 

***************

 

There was a comment posted on a news site that caught my eye - someone was suggesting that a possibility for the excessive deaths in Mexico may be something called "viral load" .. they said that basically what that means is that the Mexican people may have been exposed to excessive amounts of the virus, or something.. makes sense, I guess - if it started there and was there in large amounts, exposure would be increased... I haven't googled this, so I don't know anything about it yet.. anyone else heard the term?

 

And I still can't get my husband to take this seriously. *head-desk*

 

Viral load refers to how much virus there is floating around in your body. It's true that for most viruses, the higher the exposure the sicker you are likely to get. I'm not sure why viral load would be higher in Mexico though.

 

Again, it's not really the number of deaths in Mexico that is so worrisome, it's the pattern of deaths almost exclusively in young people. If the reason people are dying in Mexico were due to health care, or nutrition, or a cofactor, or some other unknown risk factor, it should be killing older and younger people as well. And it isn't.

 

Here's what I think is happening. First of all, I think infection has probably been going on for quite some time in Mexico. There are numerous reports of people near that pig farm who were sick in February, and probably earlier. Infection is probably widespread and vastly underestimated, many magnitudes higher than what is known. Official reports are something like 1600 cases; I'm betting it's in the 100s of thousands. If there are 150,000 infections, 150 deaths is just about the same case fatality ratio as you would find with seasonal flu. So that is very reassuring.

 

If that had happened in the US, our surveillance system would have picked it up. Mexico doesn't do the kind of surveillance we do here.

 

But it still doesn't address why only younger people are dying.

 

When you see an abrupt age cutoff in mortality it is very likely to have to do with immunologic memory. In an earlier post, I mentioned that each time we have a new pandemic, it replaces the subtype that had been circulating previously. (There is one exception; I'll explain soon.) When H1N1 showed up in 1917-1918, it replaced the H2 virus that had been circulating since 1890. H1N1 then circulated (going through many gradual changes, but all the while remaining an H1) until 1957, when a new H2 suddenly appeared. This circulated until 1968, when H3 appeared and H2 disappeared. In 1977, an H1 virus, very similar to the pre-1957 virus, suddenly appeared. That is the exception- it did NOT replace the H3 that showed up in 1968, but both H1 and H3 have been co-circulating ever since. (H1 has changed quite a bit since then and doesn't much resemble the pre-1977 or pre-1957 virus anymore.)

 

Anyway, if this current swine H1 is similar to the pre-1957 H1, people born before 1957 might have enough immunity to protect themselves from getting extremely ill. That's exactly what was seen in 1918; those born prior to 1890 had immunologic "memory".

 

As an aside, many people believe that the virus that emerged in 1977 was a laboratory accident or deliberately released, because it was almost identical to the pre-1957 virus. That almost certainly could not have happened naturally.

 

 

 

(I hope you don't mind that I'm writing this under your post. I'm too tired to go back and look which post I should put this under.)

 

No worries about under posts - you answered my question about viral load AND some questions that I had in my head but didn't type out, as it happens. Post/quote/etc however works best for you! ;)

 

I think the commenter was implying that the viral load would be higher due to the conditions - just, basically, much more virus (virii?? how the heck do you plural virus-es LOL), condensed in an area, or something...

 

But what you pointed out about the age again makes complete sense. I'm no scientist - hah, I can barely get a volcano to erupt properly - but I read it over several times and what you're saying makes sense. (The whole immunologic memory and such, as well as the likelihood of the infection having been going on for a lot longer than they're saying.)

 

At the same time as I'm worried about things, I'm finding the intricate bits of this fascinating - or at least, when it's explained at the layMUM's level LOL ... but seriously. It's quite interesting.

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Question for Perry or anyone else that may have seen an answer somewhere. How exactly did they trace the virus back to the 5yo? Speculation or certainty?

 

Barb

 

 

I'm not sure but I'll try to find out.

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First, let me shout a LOUD "Thank you" for everyone who has posted info, helps, tips, and have been voices of reason. This thread is *invaluable*, and I hope it doesn't get closed for too many posts. In fact, I'd love to see it moved to the top or made a sticky until things settle down.

 

That said, our local schools (all schools in Madison county, Alabama, for those wanting to know) have just been closed due to two *probable* cases of swine flu in one of our schools. I'm looking for some clarity on what constitutes 'possible' and/or 'probable'. A friend of my dc had ALL the symptoms last week, but the ped. didn't even WANT to check for swine flu on Friday. So what makes things different now? Why would a dr check for swine flu in one person, but not the other? Is there info passed among those who are 'in the know' that suddenly makes them look for it? Why would one case be labeled 'possible' and another discounted? I'm just curious. The info says that they are 95% sure that this is swine flu. How can they know that without the test results?

 

Thanks in advance.

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Perry,

 

(I'm sure I've exhausted my share of your time and generosity, but I have yet another question:glare:)

 

What is the estimated duration of this wave of the virus? I saw a video of the Dr. who did the Flu Map and he was saying that with the 1918 flu, it started in the spring, lasted a little while. The summer was quiet and then the flu came back stronger and more dangerous than ever in the fall. Then again the following spring, like a succession of waves with each one being stronger than the last. Of course there are no absolutes, but he said that so far there are many similarities between the timing of these two flu events.

 

So is it generally anticipated that this wave will only last a couple of weeks? I ask this because so many of the schools are closed through May 6.

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Viral load refers to how much virus there is floating around in your body. It's true that for most viruses, the higher the exposure the sicker you are likely to get. I'm not sure why viral load would be higher in Mexico though.

 

Again, it's not really the number of deaths in Mexico that is so worrisome, it's the pattern of deaths almost exclusively in young people. If the reason people are dying in Mexico were due to health care, or nutrition, or a cofactor, or some other unknown risk factor, it should be killing older and younger people as well. And it isn't.

 

Here's what I think is happening. First of all, I think infection has probably been going on for quite some time in Mexico. There are numerous reports of people near that pig farm who were sick in February, and probably earlier. Infection is probably widespread and vastly underestimated, many magnitudes higher than what is known. Official reports are something like 1600 cases; I'm betting it's in the 100s of thousands. If there are 150,000 infections, 150 deaths is just about the same case fatality ratio as you would find with seasonal flu. So that is very reassuring.

 

If that had happened in the US, our surveillance system would have picked it up. Mexico doesn't do the kind of surveillance we do here.

 

But it still doesn't address why only younger people are dying.

 

When you see an abrupt age cutoff in mortality it is very likely to have to do with immunologic memory. In an earlier post, I mentioned that each time we have a new pandemic, it replaces the subtype that had been circulating previously. (There is one exception; I'll explain soon.) When H1N1 showed up in 1917-1918, it replaced the H2 virus that had been circulating since 1890. H1N1 then circulated (going through many gradual changes, but all the while remaining an H1) until 1957, when a new H2 suddenly appeared. This circulated until 1968, when H3 appeared and H2 disappeared. In 1977, an H1 virus, very similar to the pre-1957 virus, suddenly appeared. That is the exception- it did NOT replace the H3 that showed up in 1968, but both H1 and H3 have been co-circulating ever since. (H1 has changed quite a bit since then and doesn't much resemble the pre-1977 or pre-1957 virus anymore.)

 

Anyway, if this current swine H1 is similar to the pre-1957 H1, people born before 1957 might have enough immunity to protect themselves from getting extremely ill. That's exactly what was seen in 1918; those born prior to 1890 had immunologic "memory".

 

As an aside, many people believe that the virus that emerged in 1977 was a laboratory accident or deliberately released, because it was almost identical to the pre-1957 virus. That almost certainly could not have happened naturally.

 

 

 

(I hope you don't mind that I'm writing this under your post. I'm too tired to go back and look which post I should put this under.)

 

One other thing I wanted to mention...

 

If my guesses are right, once things really take off here, (as they almost certainly will, now) we will begin to see US deaths, and in that same age group. Although the case fatality ratio (cfr) may be similar to that of the seasonal flu, the death rate in the 20-50 range will be proportionally much higher than in the seasonal flu. So while I am somewhat reassured, it's not all rosy news.

 

And I could be 100% wrong.

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Curiousity...where is the information coming from about how young people are dying with this one moreso than with others. I have yet to see that posted in any reputable place and would love to read more on this. There have only been 7 "confirmed" deaths from the swine flu in Mexico (though many more are "suspected") and out of those 7, how many were between 20 and 50 with no underlying conditions?

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I want to THANK Perry for her time and expertise she has been so forth coming with in this thread. :thumbup:

 

The information that has come to light in this thread has been like a beacon in the midst of the storm.

 

Knowledge like this is going to help keep us safe. Stay well everyone!:grouphug:

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Thank you Perry. That did clear it up. it's the possibilities and similarities to a much worse flu outbreak that is making people crazy. thanks for your input.

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Yes, I am on code "orange" for alert.

 

1) I live in Texas; a confirmed swine flu patient was mentioned tonight in the news in a county I am in almost daily.

 

2) My dd has Juvenile Rheumatoid Arthritis.

 

3) One of my additional students is also autoimmune with neutropenia.

 

I am *not* an easily scared, anxious type. I'm a birth em at home, doctors if only absolutely necessary, select and delay vaccine, in general "chill" type.

 

But I was reading the CDC website just before coming here.

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This is probably a very stupid question, but I'm just wondering if the numbers of confirmed cases of swine flu in the world seems high because doctors are testing their patients more than ever before. I mean, most folks, when they suspect they've got the flu, just home medicate for the most part, don't they? You know, take tylenol, drink fluids, stay home and get lots of rest. Then when they feel better they go back to life as normal and no one knows if they had actual influenza or some other virus with similar symptoms. They didn't have a blood test done, so no one counts them.

 

Now that this has become such a media event, people who have flu-like symptoms are going to the doctor and getting tested for the swine flu virus so the numbers are up.

 

Does that make sense? What I guess I'm asking is, couldn't this virus have been around for a long while and not really be the big problem it is being touted as? Could it be the numbers we are seeing are just a result of more testing of the patients with flu-like symptoms and not a matter of the number of flu cases actually being on the rise?

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This thread is so many pages and I haven't read them all so please forgive me if this has already been asked, but what I wanted to know is if you do get the swine flu and recover can you still catch it again or will you be immune to it?? If you are immune, will that still be the case if the virus should mutate and become more deadly?? Thanks for answering my questions. Again I apologize if it has been asked before. Stay well everyone. :)

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This is probably a very stupid question, but I'm just wondering if the numbers of confirmed cases of swine flu in the world seems high because doctors are testing their patients more than ever before. I mean, most folks, when they suspect they've got the flu, just home medicate for the most part, don't they? You know, take tylenol, drink fluids, stay home and get lots of rest. Then when they feel better they go back to life as normal and no one knows if they had actual influenza or some other virus with similar symptoms. They didn't have a blood test done, so no one counts them.

 

Now that this has become such a media event, people who have flu-like symptoms are going to the doctor and getting tested for the swine flu virus so the numbers are up.

 

Does that make sense? What I guess I'm asking is, couldn't this virus have been around for a long while and not really be the big problem it is being touted as? Could it be the numbers we are seeing are just a result of more testing of the patients with flu-like symptoms and not a matter of the number of flu cases actually being on the rise?

 

I wondered this too, but the research seems to say no. The boy they are tracing it back to (which is horrible) had the disease in Mexico in late March. Prior to this, they had not seen this mutation in the H1N1. There may have been H1N1 circulating in the population (the human form), but not the mutation until this child in Mexico (at least that is as far back as they can trace it right now).

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But it still doesn't address why only younger people are dying.

 

When you see an abrupt age cutoff in mortality it is very likely to have to do with immunologic memory. In an earlier post, I mentioned that each time we have a new pandemic, it replaces the subtype that had been circulating previously. (There is one exception; I'll explain soon.) When H1N1 showed up in 1917-1918, it replaced the H2 virus that had been circulating since 1890. H1N1 then circulated (going through many gradual changes, but all the while remaining an H1) until 1957, when a new H2 suddenly appeared. This circulated until 1968, when H3 appeared and H2 disappeared. In 1977, an H1 virus, very similar to the pre-1957 virus, suddenly appeared. That is the exception- it did NOT replace the H3 that showed up in 1968, but both H1 and H3 have been co-circulating ever since. (H1 has changed quite a bit since then and doesn't much resemble the pre-1977 or pre-1957 virus anymore.)

 

Anyway, if this current swine H1 is similar to the pre-1957 H1, people born before 1957 might have enough immunity to protect themselves from getting extremely ill. That's exactly what was seen in 1918; those born prior to 1890 had immunologic "memory".

 

 

 

Perry, THANK YOU for all the information you have taken the time to share with all of us. I'm not sure if you're up for another question, but if you are, or if someone else is, I'm wondering about what you wrote above. That makes a lot of sense to me. What I'm not understanding is if that's the case, how come there wouldn't also be a high mortality rate in everyone under 45 or so, and not just those 15-45? Wouldn't immunologic "memory" apply to all young children and babies, especially those born to parents who fall in the 15-45 category??

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Curiousity...where is the information coming from about how young people are dying with this one moreso than with others. I have yet to see that posted in any reputable place and would love to read more on this. There have only been 7 "confirmed" deaths from the swine flu in Mexico (though many more are "suspected") and out of those 7, how many were between 20 and 50 with no underlying conditions?

 

This is old (April 23) but it's going to take me a few minutes to find it.

 

Canada's Public Health Authority (PHAC) said today [23 Apr 2009] in a

situation update that Mexican authorities have asked its assistance

in determining the cause of 2 clusters of severe respiratory

illnesses that have occurred this month [April 2009]. A cluster in

Mexico City involved 120 cases and 13 deaths; the other occurred in

San Luis Potosi, where 14 cases and 4 deaths were reported. Three

deaths were reported from other locations: one from Oaxaca in

southern Mexico and 2 from Baja California Norte, near the US border.

The PHAC report said the disease outbreak struck some healthcare

workers and that most patients were previously healthy young adults

between the ages of 25 and 44. Symptoms included fever, headache,

ocular pain, shortness of breath, and fatigue that rapidly progressed

to severe respiratory distress in about 5 days. Mexican officials

detected some influenza A/H1N1 and influenza B viruses, but have

apparently ruled out H5N1 virus involvement. The PHAC said it

received 51 clinical samples from Mexico for testing at its National

Microbiology Lab. Mexico told the PHAC that it had a late influenza

season with an increasing number of influenza-like illnesses since

the middle of March [2009]. The country also had a higher proportion

of influenza B viruses than previous seasons.

Not only are most (I've heard all, but can't find it right now) deaths in that age group, the very young/old don't even seem to be catching it, or at least aren't getting diagnosed with it.

 

I'll try to find a more recent source.

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Perry, THANK YOU for all the information you have taken the time to share with all of us. I'm not sure if you're up for another question, but if you are, or if someone else is, I'm wondering about what you wrote above. That makes a lot of sense to me. What I'm not understanding is if that's the case, how come there wouldn't also be a high mortality rate in everyone under 45 or so, and not just those 15-45? Wouldn't immunologic "memory" apply to all young children and babies, especially those born to parents who fall in the 15-45 category??

 

 

That's a very good question, and I don't know the answer. That was the case in the 1918 flu, and I'm not sure anyone understands why.

 

The 1918 flu actually had a W shape, with elevated rates in the very young, 15-45, and the elderly. There were valleys between those ages. The older valley is well understood, but the younger one, to my knowledge, has never been explained well.

 

 

783-f3.gif

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Perry, THANK YOU for all the information you have taken the time to share with all of us. I'm not sure if you're up for another question, but if you are, or if someone else is, I'm wondering about what you wrote above. That makes a lot of sense to me. What I'm not understanding is if that's the case, how come there wouldn't also be a high mortality rate in everyone under 45 or so, and not just those 15-45? Wouldn't immunologic "memory" apply to all young children and babies, especially those born to parents who fall in the 15-45 category??

 

 

I am sure that Perry can answer this better than I can but I think it is because the mortality rate is already higher in the under 15 age group.

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PERRY-I just want to give you a hearty THANK YOU for shedding some light on what could otherwise be confusing. I have been following this thread from the beginning and have learned so very much from your posts. Thank you for taking the time to answer all the questions so thoroughly! :001_smile:

 

:iagree: Perry, you have been very helpful and I certainly appreciate you sharing your wisdom.

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:iagree: Perry, you have been very helpful and I certainly appreciate you sharing your wisdom.

 

 

:iagree::iagree::iagree:

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I agree with everyone else... Perry, your responses have been invaluable. Thank you very much for dealing with us. We have to be exhausting!

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When you see an abrupt age cutoff in mortality it is very likely to have to do with immunologic memory. In an earlier post, I mentioned that each time we have a new pandemic, it replaces the subtype that had been circulating previously. (There is one exception; I'll explain soon.) When H1N1 showed up in 1917-1918, it replaced the H2 virus that had been circulating since 1890. H1N1 then circulated (going through many gradual changes, but all the while remaining an H1) until 1957, when a new H2 suddenly appeared. This circulated until 1968, when H3 appeared and H2 disappeared. In 1977, an H1 virus, very similar to the pre-1957 virus, suddenly appeared. That is the exception- it did NOT replace the H3 that showed up in 1968, but both H1 and H3 have been co-circulating ever since. (H1 has changed quite a bit since then and doesn't much resemble the pre-1977 or pre-1957 virus anymore.)

 

Anyway, if this current swine H1 is similar to the pre-1957 H1, people born before 1957 might have enough immunity to protect themselves from getting extremely ill. That's exactly what was seen in 1918; those born prior to 1890 had immunologic "memory".

 

Does this have any implications for being around people born pre-1957? I mean, I guess we can't suck up their immunity, but I'd imagine they could be asymptomatic carriers? And if they're asymptomatic, they might take it less seriously.

 

As an aside, I just got back from the groc store. The news that the schools here are closing for the rest of this week & next was just announced this eve. I thought that was a good thing until I saw the teenagers at the groc store. Oh my goodness. No parents. Days off of school. PARTY!!!! :001_huh: Not. staying. home.

 

And I was thinking, man, we should have some kind of system to keep tabs on these kids. Keep them inside, where if they're spreading germs to ea other, at least they're not out in the community at large. And then I realized--we had a system like that. And we just let them go! :001_huh:

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Ok this is a bit off topic. What are we suppossed to be calling this virus again? H1 something?

I remember hearing on the news about the agriculture department having fear it would affect pork sales. They also seemed to change the focus from the town complaining about complaints about the local pig farms there in Mexico. The townspeople seemed to think the farm smelled, and flies were going from waste lagoons, and biting pigs to biting humans.

I am not attempting to blame the intensive farming. I am just saying switching the name is confusing, I am still saying swine flu. Also, I heard there are suspected cases in DC anyone know anything about that?

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I don't want to jump on the fear bandwagon, but I'm curious how fast this is moving. Who has cases reported now in their US cities?

 

Our local news is reporting 3 cases in Seattle and 1 probable case in Spokane (Eastern WA).

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I don't want to jump on the fear bandwagon, but I'm curious how fast this is moving. Who has cases reported now in their US cities?

 

Our local news is reporting 3 cases in Seattle and 1 probable case in Spokane (Eastern WA).

 

I saw that on the news last night, Breann.

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I'm still having a hard time getting excited about this one yet, and that's saying a lot for a paranoid mom like me. The deaths in Mexico are tragic, please don't misunderstand me, but everywhere else what I'm hearing is: We have 2 confirmed cases in Seattle, 6 confirmed cases in Canada, and more cases of....the sniffles. Everywhere else, it is presenting as a mild flu. It isn't any more contagious than the common cold.

 

I definitely want to know what was different about Mexico so that we can know how to deal with it better and know if it would change somehow get worse. But at the moment - must they report it with such an air of urgent fear?

 

Or am I missing something? Should I be more afraid than I am? From what I'm understanding, it would be dangerous if there were a 2nd, mutated wave, and I would be better off catching it now anyway. Why the panic to avoid it?

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I thought this was very interesting:

Flu may not have killed most in 1918 pandemic

 

http://www.reuters.com/article/scienceNews/idUSTRE5146PD20090205?feedType=RSS&feedName=scienceNews&sp=true

 

I would love to hear thoughts of those more in the know than I am about this kind of stuff. And why is this newer finding not being reported?:glare:

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The Ft. Worth ISD has closed all schools for the next week. This is just crazy! I'm not a worrier by any stretch, but good heavens! I'm not sure if it is excessive or not!

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All of our schools and daycare centers are closed today in Huntsville, AL and Madison County because of possible swine flu.

 

I personally think that this thing was created on purpose. The company that is supposed to be making the vaccine for this swine flu was just caught with 18 countries worth of flu vaccine contaminated with bird flu! You can google it if you want. It was mostly reported in other countries though.It was out of a branch of Baxter in Australia and they found it when testing it on ferrets--they all died. The money trail is just too blatant for my taste.

 

If they come up with a mandatory vaccine for this I am not taking it.

 

I make my own homepathic remedies. My kids avoided a recent direct exposure to Scarlett Fever because of them.

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I thought this was very interesting:

Flu may not have killed most in 1918 pandemic

 

http://www.reuters.com/article/scienceNews/idUSTRE5146PD20090205?feedType=RSS&feedName=scienceNews&sp=true

 

I would love to hear thoughts of those more in the know than I am about this kind of stuff. And why is this newer finding not being reported?:glare:

 

That was based on a letter to the editor of Emerging Infectious Disease. It really wasn't "research" at all, just conjecture. It's an interesting idea, and should be explored further, but there really isn't any evidence for it at this point.

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I don't want to jump on the fear bandwagon, but I'm curious how fast this is moving. Who has cases reported now in their US cities?

 

 

There's a case in a high school in my city, so they've closed the school for a week.

 

My dd goes to 2 classes on Thursdays...a homeschool class in the morning, then she catches a bus to the local CC. I am nervous for her today. I kept telling her, "Wash your hands! Don't sit next to anyone on the bus!" She rolled her eyes, but I hope she got the message...

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Why are schools closing? Why is this bringing about more fear than the flu that is dealt with on a yearly basis? Can someone explain why people in the US are so fearful of this?

 

I don't get it.

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I personally think that this thing was created on purpose. The company that is supposed to be making the vaccine for this swine flu was just caught with 18 countries worth of flu vaccine contaminated with bird flu! You can google it if you want. It was mostly reported in other countries though.It was out of a branch of Baxter in Australia and they found it when testing it on ferrets--they all died. The money trail is just too blatant for my taste.

 

If they come up with a mandatory vaccine for this I am not taking it.

 

.

 

I googled it. I could not find what I recognized as a credible source. (Anyone have a credible source about this????) Not disagreeing with you though. Something is very fishy about this. I'm wavering back and forth between burying my head in the sand and screaming the sky is falling. I don't want to take the vaccine either. But then I've been listening to infowars for two days and err....

Thanks Peek for turning me on to him. :tongue_smilie: I really needed to be worried about this right before my surgery which is MONDAY! Could there BE any worse time ing for reconstructive surgery!!!!! Ok...going to go :chillpill:.

 

RhondaM.

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I thought this was very interesting:

Flu may not have killed most in 1918 pandemic

 

http://www.reuters.com/article/scienceNews/idUSTRE5146PD20090205?feedType=RSS&feedName=scienceNews&sp=true

 

I would love to hear thoughts of those more in the know than I am about this kind of stuff. And why is this newer finding not being reported?:glare:

 

Read back through this thread -- I think there was a debunking of the strep theory on about page 5.

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Why are schools closing? Why is this bringing about more fear than the flu that is dealt with on a yearly basis? Can someone explain why people in the US are so fearful of this?

 

I don't get it.

 

 

My guess is a weaponized virus or something to encite panic in order to pass oppressive legislation. Just a guess, but it's a tactic that has worked in the past--ie. CPSIA lead legislation comes to mind as a recent example on a lesser scale.

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My guess is a weaponized virus or something to encite panic in order to pass oppressive legislation. Just a guess, but it's a tactic that has worked in the past--ie. CPISA lead legislation comes to mind as a recent example on a lesser scale.

 

:iagree: I agree. There is all kinds of stuff being pushed through...or trying to get pushed through right now. :glare:

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My guess is a weaponized virus or something to encite panic in order to pass oppressive legislation. Just a guess, but it's a tactic that has worked in the past--ie. CPSIA lead legislation comes to mind as a recent example on a lesser scale.

 

:iagree: I agree. There is all kinds of stuff being pushed through...or trying to get pushed through right now. :glare:

 

Hey guys? Let's not go here. This thread has so far been informative and rational. I'd really appreciate not heading off on a tin foil hat rabbit trail. Seriously, start a new thread.

 

Barb

 

Oh, duh. And here's the reason I came back to post. Good article as to why Mexico is having a harder time with this virus: http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5j9PJJvaROOPZdpFqydJYDQ4jxXRAD97SCGB00

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Why are schools closing? Why is this bringing about more fear than the flu that is dealt with on a yearly basis? Can someone explain why people in the US are so fearful of this?

 

I don't get it.

 

I don't think it's fear so much as caution. This virus is similar in structure to the one that caused the Spanish flu of 1918-1919. The last pandemic was so bad because we didn't (and really, couldn't) do anything to attempt to halt the spread. They don't really know how bad this is or could get, but at this point are trying the easiest and most obvious tactics to slow this thing down until they can get a handle on it. It isn't that it's so bad now, but has the potential to get bad. No one wants to say in hindsight..."If only we had tried X"

 

Barb

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Hey guys? Let's not go here. This thread has so far been informative and rational. I'd really appreciate not heading off on a tin foil hat rabbit trail. Seriously, start a new thread.

 

Barb

 

 

I'm just curious why this would be"tin foil hat" territory. How is it not rational to link recent events with current events? When the people who will make money off of this situation have demonstrated shady behavior, why isn't it prudent to dissect it further? Maybe someone here knows more. I would like to know what people are hearing in their areas of the country.

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There was a pandemic simulation in Jan 2006 which makes for very interesting reading.

 

"At the conclusion of the simulation, Dr. David Nabarro, U.N. System Coordinator for Avian and Human Influenza, stated, “Here are ten things that I learned.â€

 

1 The response needs to be both strategic and opportunistic.

 

2 Emphasis has to be as much on the people as on the virus.

 

3 Quite likely by Day 28 all systems will have fallen apart—we need a plan to improve infrastructure to support the response.

 

4 Engaging business from the start is not a luxury—it is essential and perhaps the most important factor of all.

 

5 Media is an essential part of the response and you need to learn to work with them.

 

6 Encourage joint work by government, business, and community organizations at all levels.

 

7 Martial law is not an end but a means, and you need to understand the end state you are working toward when using it—people are precious—martial law should be used to protect the people.

 

8 We need to define a pandemic state and how business and government will work in that state—must do this now.

 

9 “Flu-castersâ€â€”need a dashboard to track flu statistics and progress around the world.

 

10 Military must be involved in the response to help keep the peace and deliver essential goods

and services. "

 

Entire document:

 

http://www.weforum.org/pdf/Influenza.pdf

 

Stay healthy & be prepared everyone.

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I'm just curious why this would be"tin foil hat" territory. How is it not rational to link recent events with current events? When the people who will make money off of this situation have demonstrated shady behavior, why isn't it prudent to dissect it further? Maybe someone here knows more. I would like to know what people are hearing in their areas of the country.

 

Because the supposed links are speculation and opinion, not factual information about the actual disease. This thread is already big enough and is liable to close because of its size at some point. I'm fairly certain people come here for reassurance and explanations of the science behind what is happening, not imaginative theories and rabbit trails, KWIM? It's really better off in another thread.

 

Barb

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