swine flu

[Oak Knoll Mom]

Same here - also in March..or was it early April? Anyway, knocked dd12 down flat for about a week, the rest of us not nearly as much... we never went to the doc cuz we don't have a family doc & it would have been hours in the outpatients dept.. it was sorta weird - flu/ish, but not quite. VERY sore throat, not nearly as much cough/etc as usually comes with the flu. Dd12 got a nasty headache and pukey feeling stomach with it as well, though the rest of us didn't. Fevers all 'round. Flu/ish, and the right time for the flu, but just not quite like when we'd had it before...

 

We had something just like that here in Asheville, NC in mid-late March. Headache, fever, felt like the flu, not much trouble in the respiratory department, stomach felt yucky but no vomiting or diarrhea. We actually had to cancel our homeschool group b/c so many kids and a few moms had it. Everyone recovered pretty quickly, though.

[Perry]

My responses in red.

 

 

Again, people died where? MEXICO.

No one knows why the Mexicans are dying and the Americans/Canadians/ etc. aren't. But since the viruses appear to be identical, it's likely that it's just a matter of time before people start dying elsewhere.

 

Out of the 81, now 100, only 20 cases have been confirmed.

100 deaths in young adults in one geographic area from a new virus in a few weeks is a major event.

 

 

 

How many people die each year in the US alone of regular flu? Hmmm...

 

 

 

 

Every year in the United States, on average:

 

• 5% to 20% of the population gets the flu;
  
• more than 200,000 people are hospitalized from flu-related complications; and
  
• about 36,000 people die from flu-related causes.
  

 

How many died in Mexico? Ummm, MAYBE 100. How many have died in the US? NONE. Don't they matter? I'm just as concerned about the Mexicans as the Americans and everyone else. How many die every year of the regular old flu in the US alone...thirty six THOUSAND. Almost all of those deaths are in the elderly and immunocompromised. In a typical year, about 5% of influenza deaths are in people under 65. That is vastly different than what we are seeing in Mexico - 100% ( or nearly) of the deaths are in the 20-40 year old age group.

 

I am not saying this can't be a concern. I am not saying it won't get worse. I am not saying it is not a new strain. What I am saying is that the country is starting to panic when sickness and deaths have not even reached anything near what a normal, average flu season has reached.

I'm not concerned so much about the number of deaths- as I said elsewhere, we don't have enough data yet to calculate attack rates, case fatality rates, transmission rates, etc. People are concerned because of the POTENTIAL. This virus has the potential to cause us serious problems. It has the potential to become pandemic. It has the potential of being a BAD pandemic. We have had several pandemics since 1918, but they weren't terribly bad. The patterns of mortality in the current outbreak are reminiscent of the 1918 pandemic, NOT the 1957 or 1968 pandemics. Those pandemics had elevated death rates, but still generally killed the elderly and immunocompromised. It is because of the similarity to the Spanish flu that people are more worried than usual.

 

A typical annual flu virus does not have pandemic potential.

 

There are almost 9 million people in Mexico city. Less than 2 thousand of those 9 million have become infected. No one has any idea yet how many are infected. That will require extensive seroprevalence studies that are going to take awhile. It is much more likely that there are 10's or 100's of thousands infected. Most of those would have no or mild symptoms. That is actually better, because it would mean the case fatality rate is much lower.

 

Looks very similar to the 5 to 20 % of the population that become ill each year with the regular flu. 2000 out of 9000000 is 0.02 %. It's inconceivable that all those that are infected came to the attention of HCWs. There are many, many more infected than we know of yet.

 

 

Again, all I am saying is that it is definitely not time to panic or really even get all that bent out of shape. I agree. Panicking is not helpful. I do believe that people should have all the information available to them. We can talk about patterns all we want, but things were a bit different in 1918, even in 1968 than they are now, medically speaking. What was the average life span in 1918? UNDER 50! Did people routinely get medical care when they were sick. NO. They waited it out, which, with influenza related pneumonia, waiting is NOT a good idea. The media wasn't around in 1918. People had no way to really spread the word about Spanish Influenza. Life was a lot different then, and I think that comparing it to now is a bit apocalyptic. We definitely have some advantages they didn't have. Antivirals, antibiotics, good nutrition and ventilators will help enormously. Unfortunately, in many of the possible scenarios there won't be nearly enough resources to go around.

 

The whole situation is very confusing. The flu virus can be very unpredictable. No one knows what's going to happen, but we have to look at historical information to try to make predictions. Right now, it's not looking so good. On the other hand, if it turns out that the virus truly isn't that transmissible, it could die out and disappear.

[fivetails]

Looks like it may have made it's way to PEI as well - I was checking the online version of our old town paper (we're from the island, living in Alberta now):

 

Prince Edward Island health officials are investigating eight potential cases of human swine flu, says the province’s chief health officer.

 

 

During a hastily called news conference this morning, Dr. Heather Morrison said the eight Islanders have recently returned home from Mexico and are experiencing flu-like symptoms.

 

 

“In P.E.I. as of this morning, we have no laboratory confirmed cases of human swine influenza," said Morrison.

 

 

"We have received calls on eight people this morning who we will be investigating for human swine influenza.â€

 

 

And while the Canadian government has not issued a travel advisory regarding travel to Mexico, Morrison said all non-essential travel to Mexico should be discouraged.

 

 

Sorry about the grey colour, it won't change for some reason.

 

[Perry]

My responses in red below.

 

If you had just gotten over being sick with flu-like symptoms (but hadn't been to the doctor, just treated the symptoms) is there any liklihood that you had an undiagnosed case of this? It's possible. Or is it like onset of labor? When you have it, you really know you have it? Not necessarily. People talk about having the flu, and feeling like you got hit by a truck. While that is often true, just as often it isn't true. Many people have mild or no symptoms with influenza infection. IIRC, only about 50% of those infected get symptoms. It is true that if you have classic symptoms of the flu you feel awful.

 

We had something go through the family in March. I figured it for strep, but there was one day that was quite bad. (I'm still kicking myself for not taking everyone to the doctor when the kids first got sick.)

 

I guess that I'm wondering how many different strains of flu are out there at any given time under normal circumstances.

Only a handful of type A viruses circulate at any one time. CDC and WHO have extensive surveillance systems and test lots of flu samples every year, so there is good data about what is happening at any given time. Somewhere else in this thread I mentioned antigenic shift and drift. Through DRIFT,flu viruses are constantly changing, but they are small, gradual changes, and the mutated viruses remain very similar to the original viruses. Over time, the changes accumulate and become different enough that they can evade the immune system. But they are still related.

What has happened now is antigenic SHIFT. We have a brand new virus, that did not arise from a mutation. Instead, it has completely new genes from what has been circulating. Pandemics are fundamentally a zoonotic illness, meaning they jump into the human population from an animal host. This new virus probably came from a pig, but that is speculation; I don't have any evidence for it.

 

Sebastian

 

ps. I'm getting achy just reading this thread. It is a little like thinking about not scratching your nose.

[fivetails]

Those kids at the private school in NS - they're now finding family/friends of the students who are also coming down with it.

 

Dr. Robert Strang, the province's chief public health officer, said the first signs of the flu have surfaced among friends and relatives of King's-Edgehill students.

[TraceyS/FL]

Well i'm stressed over it....

 

And Perry, thank you for all the info - it's helped!

 

But i have a friend that is on a plane on her way to Russia to log-in for her adoption..... via Texas. Here is hoping she gets all the way to where she MUST be tomorrow. The Russian's are now checking all flights from NA. They will be arriving via Frankfurt, so here is hoping...

 

And then my Dad, who is immunocompromised(did i even get close to that spelling?), just travelled via car from FL to CA. He will be back the same path late this week.... and they stopped to see my bro/SIL, and my SIL is going to PA school in San Diego.

 

And overall, higher for me because of the 100,000 people in my area, over 1/2 are "old folks" (retirement community) and i worry about it spreading faster amongst them if it gets here.

 

ANYWAY.... back to stressing about S making all her plane connections to get to her new baby :D

[hillfarm]

Perry, just wanted to let you know I am thanking God for you and your research and training. I so appreciate having your voice of science and reason represented here.

 

Whether this turns out to be a severe problem or not, I am using it to help me become prepared to deal with pandemic illness (as much as we ever can). If I don't need my supplies this time, good. But I will have them on hand in case of future outbreaks, which the scientific and medical communities predict is inevitable.

 

One of the preparations I am working on today is to get all of my housework and laundry caught up. That way, if I get sick, things will be much more tolerable around here until I can get back up on my feet. I may also cook and freeze a few meals. If this blows over, I know we will eat them on evenings when we straggle in late from gardening but it gives me peace of mind to know that dh or even 10yo dd could make dinner if I was out of commission.

 

To me, panic means making poor, knee-jerk decisions based on incomplete information and usually involves buying expensive things that one doesn't need or know how to use. Preparing means thinking ahead and doing things today that will be useful in the future whether or not the "disaster" comes. OTC meds to deal with flu symptoms, a clean house, and a few quick meals in the freezer will be helpful whether I use them now or later.

[Tree House Academy]

How many died in Mexico? Ummm, MAYBE 100. How many have died in the US? NONE. Don't they matter? I'm just as concerned about the Mexicans as the Americans and everyone else.

 

Okay, while I appreciate all of your knowledge here, that was uncalled for. In that post, my point was that the numbers were NOT huge at all...neither in Mexico or the US. I do feel that Mexico does not have the same health system we do in the US and as a culture, they do not tend toward modern medicine the way the folks in the US do. Of COURSE I care if people die...no matter what country they are from. That was insulting.

 

And no, I am not over the top because it is hitting younger people. I think that younger people (25-45) tend to ignore their health issues more often that older people and more often than they would if their children were to come down with it. I know, for me, I would much more quickly rush my mother or my children to the dr for flu symptoms than I would for the same in myself or my dh. That is not smart, in this case, and since we do know about the threat, I will be more likely to pay closer attention to my and dh's health as well in the coming weeks.

Edited April 27, 2009 by Tree House Academy

[Alicia64]

Thanks Perry, you rock!

 

Can you educate me a little bit about how long it would take to make a vaccine? Are "they" likely already working on one for this swine flu?

 

Would that make all the difference here? Or?

 

It's still really concerning to me that a student brought in from Mexico into our small suburb in CA.

 

I appreciate everyone's "don't panic" messages. Panic certainly doesn't help.

 

Still, we're staying in until more in known especially since it's now here in our suburb.

 

Man am I glad we hs!!

 

Thanks for everything Perry!

 

Alicia

[TeacherZee]

They've just confirmed two cases in Scotland and they are testing people in Sweden as well.

[anewday]

Thanks Perry, you rock!

 

Can you educate me a little bit about how long it would take to make a vaccine? Are "they" likely already working on one for this swine flu?

 

Would that make all the difference here? Or?

 

It's still really concerning to me that a student brought in from Mexico into our small suburb in CA.

 

I appreciate everyone's "don't panic" messages. Panic certainly doesn't help.

 

Still, we're staying in until more in known especially since it's now here in our suburb.

 

Man am I glad we hs!!

 

Thanks for everything Perry!

 

Alicia

 

We're not far from that community and I'll just be honest. I'm "calmly" freaking out. :001_huh: I read up on Spanish flu. WOW. If this IS like that...and the economy being what it is...unfathomable....

[Tammyla]

I'm concerned. There just seem to be so many variables right now along with so many conflicting news reports.

 

We have tentative travel plans to Arizona that I'm hoping wont need to be changed. The plan right now is simply to hope and pray everything works out.

[elegantlion]

Here's the latest updated page from the CDC.

 

http://www.cdc.gov/swineflu/?s_cid=swineFlu_outbreak_internal_001

[HeatherInWI]

How many died in Mexico? Ummm, MAYBE 100. How many have died in the US? NONE. Don't they matter? I'm just as concerned about the Mexicans as the Americans and everyone else.

 

Okay, while I appreciate all of your knowledge here, that was uncalled for. In that post, my point was that the numbers were NOT huge at all...neither in Mexico or the US. I do feel that Mexico does not have the same health system we do in the US and as a culture, they do not tend toward modern medicine the way the folks in the US do. Of COURSE I care if people die...no matter what country they are from. That was insulting.

 

Remember that posting is an imperfect form of communication. We can't hear your voice or see your face as you "say" things. Your comment about Mexicans dying and Americans not seemed rather xenophobic to me, as well.

 

However, a point Perry may have been trying to make is that we need to look at the cases and deaths as a whole, not divide them by country. If we look at how many cases there have been in Mexico compared to the number of deaths, we see that we haven't even had close to the number of cases in the US to account for even one death. If we have two deaths, suddenly our statistics would be far worse than Mexico's. Comforting ourselves that "I'm an American and no Americans have died" would be a false comfort.

 

 

And no, I am not over the top because it is hitting younger people. I think that younger people (25-45) tend to ignore their health issues more often that older people and more often than they would if their children were to come down with it. I know, for me, I would much more quickly rush my mother or my children to the dr for flu symptoms than I would for the same in myself or my dh. That is not smart, in this case, and since we do know about the threat, I will be more likely to pay closer attention to my and dh's health as well in the coming weeks.

 

The reason younger adults don't tend to race to the doctor with these things is that most of these flus, etc., rarely kill younger adults. This one is apparently different, and people need to be aware.

 

I've read that people generally divide into identifiable groups when a crisis hits. One group panics, one group (the largest) goes into denial mode, and one group gathers their wits together and acts. It may be genetically and environmentally determined which group we are in, so we need to look at ourselves and make an effort to "rehearse" what we want to do when a crisis hits in order to increase our survival chances. The most likely group to survive is the third, followed by the first, followed by the second. Believe it or not, lots of people die from not evacuating when a fire alarm is sounded and not going to a shelter when a storm approaches. They honestly believe that if they mentally ignore or minimize the danger, they will be safe. It's kind of like a little kid closing his eyes so that the monster can't see him.

 

Then again, when a possible danger situation *doesn't* turn into a crisis, I suppose group two comes out best, because their feathers haven't even been ruffled. :001_smile:

[Alicia64]

Dawn ~ "Calmly panicking", that's a great term for it.

 

HeatherinWI ~ I agree with you. I think both posters meant their words in the best possible way. Treehouse was saying: only a few died (relatively speaking) in Mexico and none in U.S..

 

And Perry was saying we need to look at the #'s as a whole.

 

Thanks for being a calm voice.

 

For me, I can't fathom why people don't want to stay calm yet be fully prepared. Heck, I wish I could have been better prepared for the stock market crash. My days of not being prepared are over.

 

Alicia

[Tree House Academy]

Remember that posting is an imperfect form of communication. We can't hear your voice or see your face as you "say" things. Your comment about Mexicans dying and Americans not seemed rather xenophobic to me, as well.

 

However, a point Perry may have been trying to make is that we need to look at the cases and deaths as a whole, not divide them by country. If we look at how many cases there have been in Mexico compared to the number of deaths, we see that we haven't even had close to the number of cases in the US to account for even one death. If we have two deaths, suddenly our statistics would be far worse than Mexico's. Comforting ourselves that "I'm an American and no Americans have died" would be a false comfort.

 

 

 

 

The reason younger adults don't tend to race to the doctor with these things is that most of these flus, etc., rarely kill younger adults. This one is apparently different, and people need to be aware.

 

I've read that people generally divide into identifiable groups when a crisis hits. One group panics, one group (the largest) goes into denial mode, and one group gathers their wits together and acts. It may be genetically and environmentally determined which group we are in, so we need to look at ourselves and make an effort to "rehearse" what we want to do when a crisis hits in order to increase our survival chances. The most likely group to survive is the third, followed by the first, followed by the second. Believe it or not, lots of people die from not evacuating when a fire alarm is sounded and not going to a shelter when a storm approaches. They honestly believe that if they mentally ignore or minimize the danger, they will be safe. It's kind of like a little kid closing his eyes so that the monster can't see him.

 

Then again, when a possible danger situation *doesn't* turn into a crisis, I suppose group two comes out best, because their feathers haven't even been ruffled. :001_smile:

 

 

Yeah, I am actually a clinically diagnosed hypochondriac. I worry desperately about diseases every single day. I am attempting to stay rational and calm with this one until a need to panic hits.

 

As for your comment about "how many cases we have had in the US and how many deaths, etc" - I am just thinking rationally that in the US ALONE, every single year, 36,000 people die. That is the regular flu. The statistics in Mexico are not the statistics here. I am sorry to say, yes, human life is human life and I am very sad for those who lost loved ones. However, my point is that the cultures are different, the medical care is different, and that DOES make a difference. When our statistics in the US start telling us more, then I may be concerned. And it is not because I am unconcerned about other countries...each country has different cultures, different ways of handling crisis, and so on. I want to know what is happening HERE, where I am.

Edited April 27, 2009 by Tree House Academy

[Sara R]

Great time for an earthquake. At least it was only 5.6 (downgraded from 6.0) and no damages or injuries reported yet. Plague, earthquake; wonder what's next.

[camibami]

Hey Perry or anyone else knowledgeable: I have a question about flu!!

 

I got the flu a few months ago, and while I don't recall the whole designation, I know it was Type A...somethin somethin.There were some numbers in there. Anyway, my youngest DD got it, too, I think, but only I had had a swab and a bona fide case. What I wonder is, are we less susceptible to this swine flu, which I read somewhere is also a type A flu?? Is there a sort of immunity, a la chickenpox or measles, from certain strains? Or is it too varied?

[Alicia64]

The 7th grader here in our suburb in No. Cal. just got confirmed with swine flu.

 

But they say our hospitals are not being inundated at all.

 

Alicia

[Supertechmom]

Newberry, Sc private school shut down by the CDC awaiting Swine flu test results. Group went to Cancun the other week. Most of them and the families are sick. UGH! That's not far from us.

[Tree House Academy]

I was just reading articles in my state on the swine flu. How likely is it that perhaps this strain has been going around already in the US? A doctor in Chattanooga commented that he expects to see cases of swine flu in TN now that they are testing each and every case. And if so, what would that mean for the "outbreak?"

 

Another official entertained the idea that the deaths caused in Mexico were likely also due to poor nutrition, lack of medical care, and unsanitary conditions. Could this be the reason that other countries have not seen so many deaths? Or is this the "second round" type stuff that Perry was mentioning?

[fivetails]

Anyone else not get a whole lot of school done today because your brain didn't want to focus on anything else but this? Blargh. Kinda hard to think about multiplying fractions amidst this mess.

[fivetails]

I was just reading articles in my state on the swine flu. How likely is it that perhaps this strain has been going around already in the US? A doctor in Chattanooga commented that he expects to see cases of swine flu in TN now that they are testing each and every case. And if so, what would that mean for the "outbreak?"

 

Another official entertained the idea that the deaths caused in Mexico were likely also due to poor nutrition, lack of medical care, and unsanitary conditions. Could this be the reason that other countries have not seen so many deaths? Or is this the "second round" type stuff that Perry was mentioning?

 

I wonder about both - especially as most people who get the flu don't bother going to the doctor cuz he's just gonna tell you to go home, drink juice, and stay in bed. There's nothing they can *do* for the flu.. it could have been around a lot longer than anyone realizes...

 

and I asked about that earlier in the thread, but I don't think anyone said anything.. I don't know what healthcare is like in Mexico, but for some reason I'm thinking it's not really the same as other countries...

[Pammy]

I have friends that were possibly exposed, the kid in their group tested positive for flu, but is waiting to see what strain.

 

I am concerned that most people are not concerned.. as if they think it will just go away. If you look at the case in New York from just one school, there are already 29 cases within a week. It is spreading fast. If this is at all like the 1918 flu, that killed around 50million people within a year. I am worried that there will be panic and people will want the govt to take control. That is more frightening than the actual flu virus. I heard that several countries are banning imports of US meat already.

Edited April 27, 2009 by Pammy

[Perry]

Hey Perry or anyone else knowledgeable: I have a question about flu!!

 

I got the flu a few months ago, and while I don't recall the whole designation, I know it was Type A...somethin somethin.There were some numbers in there. Anyway, my youngest DD got it, too, I think, but only I had had a swab and a bona fide case. What I wonder is, are we less susceptible to this swine flu, which I read somewhere is also a type A flu?? Is there a sort of immunity, a la chickenpox or measles, from certain strains? Or is it too varied?

 

There is the possibility of some cross-protection between any strains of the same subtype (antibodies to one H1 virus may protect somewhat against a different H1 strain, but antibodies to an H3 are useless against an H1). It depends on how similar the strains are. There are very complicated phylogenetic trees that show how influenza viruses are related to each other, based on the number of amino acid changes. The more changes in the protein, the less protection you get. Unfortunately, this virus seems to be quite different from last year's seasonal flu. However, you are probably better off than if you'd never had the flu at all.

 

One of the reasons the 20-40 year olds were hardest hit with the Spanish flu (H1) in 1918 is that there were no H1 viruses in existence since 1890. In 1889-1890 an H2 virus pandemic began and it completely replaced the H1 virus that had been circulating before that time. People born after 1890 had absolutely no protection to H1 viruses. Most of those born before 1890 had been exposed and had H1 antibodies floating around. While the pre-1890 H1 virus was very different than the 1918 H1 virus, it seemed to induce enough protection to give partial immunity. The H2 virus that those born after 1890 had some immunity to offered no immunity at all to the 1918 H1 virus.

 

Short answer: You may have a little cross protection. Not a lot.

[MomLovesClassics]

I have friends that were possibly exposed, the kid in their group tested positive for flu, but is waiting to see what strain.

 

I am concerned that most people are not concerned.. as if they think it will just go away. If you look at the case in New York from just one school, there are already 29 cases within a week. It is spreading fast. If this is at all like the 1918 flu, that killed around 50million people within a year. I am worried that there will be panic and people will want the govt to take control. That is more frightening than the actual flu virus. I heard that several countries are banning imports of US meat already.

 

Sorry to be nosey. What state do you live in? Do you live in one of the states with confirmed cases? Just curious. Thanks for sharing.

[Tree House Academy]

One of the reasons the 20-40 year olds were hardest hit with the Spanish flu (H1) in 1918 is that there were no H1 viruses in existence since 1890. In 1889-1890 an H2 virus pandemic began and it completely replaced the H1 virus that had been circulating before that time. People born after 1890 had absolutely no protection to H1 viruses. Most of those born before 1890 had been exposed and had H1 antibodies floating around. While the pre-1890 H1 virus was very different than the 1918 H1 virus, it seemed to induce enough protection to give partial immunity. The H2 virus that those born after 1890 had some immunity to offered no immunity at all to the 1918 H1 virus.

 

Is there speculation, then, as to why it hit that age group the hardest in Mexico?

[lollie010]

First, thank you all so much for the information in this thread. I have been checking often and avoiding the news at this point. I really appreciate you all.

 

Now my question. My ds was given Tamiflu about 3 years ago when he was diagnosed with the flu (not sure what type). He had an extreme reaction. He was only 2.5 years old at the time, but had a psychiatric reaction. It lasted for weeks and to some degree I think that there are permanent effects. It was so bad that he tried to kill himself and me. He had hallucinations, etc. It was among the worst experience our family has ever had. Later I heard about similar reactions among children in Asia. I know I will need to talk to his doctor, but would this fact change the way you react to the news? I will not give it to him again so would you be even more cautious. Also, knowing what he went through makes me really concerned for others who may use Tamiflu.

 

I know I need to talk to his doctor, but was just wondering what your thoughts might be.

[Perry]

I wonder about both - especially as most people who get the flu don't bother going to the doctor cuz he's just gonna tell you to go home, drink juice, and stay in bed. There's nothing they can *do* for the flu.. it could have been around a lot longer than anyone realizes...

 

and I asked about that earlier in the thread, but I don't think anyone said anything.. I don't know what healthcare is like in Mexico, but for some reason I'm thinking it's not really the same as other countries...

 

It is possible that the virus has been around for awhile. We have surveillance programs that test samples from around the country on a regular basis. It gives a good idea of what subtypes and strains are going around, and helps predict future epidemics and determine what the components of next year's flu shots should be. But obviously the great majority of people with flu are never seen by HCWs, and only a tiny fraction of those that are seen have their virus identified. So if there have been low numbers of swine flu cases they would be missed. If it were common, though, it likely would have been found via surveillance. All it takes is ONE sample of a swine flu, and CDC is all over it. The best guess is that there were some cases prior to the first identified case in California on April 13, but probably no epidemics.

 

As far as differences in health care- I don't know enough about health care in Mexico to comment. I don't know why young people are dying, but I am very hesitant to blame poor health care. If the deaths were a result of poor care, we should be seeing many magnitudes higher death rates in the elderly and very young, and we aren't. Apparently, they have plenty of antivirals, so that isn't the problem either.

 

Even if the flu is related to issues like nutrition, overall health, and access to health care, much of the world is a lot worse off than Mexico is.

[MomLovesClassics]

Anyone else not get a whole lot of school done today because your brain didn't want to focus on anything else but this? Blargh. Kinda hard to think about multiplying fractions amidst this mess.

I admit, I have been a bit bit focused on this, atempting to get different view points from different sources. It appears quite serious. At the same time I do not know what to think. I did get out the bottle of elderberry syrup. Just finished reading this thread, whew it was long. Guess I am spending too much time on the computer because of this.

[Cricket]

I jokingly told my dh last night that we don't have to be too worried because we already had it. I almost wonder if something similar went through Phoenix last summer. We had something horrible. None of us had ever been that sick in our lives. Well, dh had but that was encephalitis when he was a teenager. We had fever, vomiting, diarrhea, felt like we had been hit by a truck we hurt and ached so bad, and a nasty headache. I laid in bed for three days and it was all I could do to lift my head off the pillow to try and sip something. We all got it but the dc weren't nearly as sick as dh and I. Our oldest was the sickest of the kids and our youngest was 2 at the time and she barely acted sick. I was so glad we weren't all sick at the same time. Our oldest ds was able to at least feed the other children for a day while I was nearly passed out. It was so awful! Quite a few of our neighbors had it as well but no other family members in other parts of the country ever got sick and they didn't know of anyone else who had it. It was weird!

[Tree House Academy]

You know, I have actually heard a lot of people say they had something similar around March.

 

My dh, ds9, and I have all had bad cases of the flu in the past. I mean, to the point of near death experience. The only one who has not is ds5 - and that fact really terrifies me. When ds9 had the flu in 2003 (he was 4 at the time), it was the one that had all of the media hype - kids on the news dying faster than ever. It was the Fujian strain of influenza A (H3N2). We all, got it in some way or another, but none of us got it as badly as poor ds9. He was SO sick. When I was 17, I got a strain of the flu that was absolutely horrendous. I developed walking pneumonia and honestly probably should have died. I never saw a doctor and after 3 months, I finally started recovering. Now, I look back on it and think how STUPID I was to not get to a dr. I couldn't breathe and my fever was 103 for a month straight.

 

ds5 got the flu when ds9 had it, but he still had my immunities and never got all that sick. It lasted about 48 hours for him and he was 2 mos old. He has had the flu shot every year since. So, it is really ds5, more than anyone else in my family, that I worry about should this get wild.

[Melissa in Australia]

the flue season is only just about to start here in Australia. So far there hasn't been any confirmed cases here yet!

I haven't had the flue for over 10 years. Some of my children have not had the flue at all. common colds, but not the flue.

Am I panicking? No. Am I concerned , Yes. we are eating huge amounts of garlic, and will go 100 km to the nearest big shopping center tomorrow and do a big shop.

[camibami]

Thanks Perry!

 

My youngest (the one who I am 99.9% sure also had the flu when I had it) is the only one I am concerned with getting flu, health-wise. And just because she's the youngest, no immune issues or anything.

 

I have been a hand-washing FOOL all day. We listened to Diane Rheme (spelling?) on the way up to Baltimore this morning and it was an hour of...you guessed it...swine flu. So now the OCD is kicking in, LOL.

[fivetails]

I wonder about both - especially as most people who get the flu don't bother going to the doctor cuz he's just gonna tell you to go home, drink juice, and stay in bed. There's nothing they can *do* for the flu.. it could have been around a lot longer than anyone realizes...

 

and I asked about that earlier in the thread, but I don't think anyone said anything.. I don't know what healthcare is like in Mexico, but for some reason I'm thinking it's not really the same as other countries...

 

It is possible that the virus has been around for awhile. We have surveillance programs that test samples from around the country on a regular basis. It gives a good idea of what subtypes and strains are going around, and helps predict future epidemics and determine what the components of next year's flu shots should be. But obviously the great majority of people with flu are never seen by HCWs, and only a tiny fraction of those that are seen have their virus identified. So if there have been low numbers of swine flu cases they would be missed. If it were common, though, it likely would have been found via surveillance. All it takes is ONE sample of a swine flu, and CDC is all over it. The best guess is that there were some cases prior to the first identified case in California on April 13, but probably no epidemics.

 

As far as differences in health care- I don't know enough about health care in Mexico to comment. I don't know why young people are dying, but I am very hesitant to blame poor health care. If the deaths were a result of poor care, we should be seeing many magnitudes higher death rates in the elderly and very young, and we aren't. Apparently, they have plenty of antivirals, so that isn't the problem either.

 

Even if the flu is related to issues like nutrition, overall health, and access to health care, much of the world is a lot worse off than Mexico is.

 

See, I hear the talk of having "samples" taken from people with the flu - and I think Huh? Because I've never known *anyone* with the flu who had any sort of tests run -- I can hardly think of anyone who ever even went to a doctor (despite feeling like they'd been run down by a haul truck) because of the way you just get sent home, never mind special samples taken... maybe it's treated differently in different places, or with different groups of people - I suppose if a flu hit a nursing home or something, they'd test... or someone *extremely sick* and in hospital...

 

(I've actually witnessed some very rude doctors - to the point where they accuse you of wasting their time when you come in with the flu because it can't be treated and you're just spreading your germs in the waiting room...not much wonder people are discouraged from getting checked out!)

 

Someone on another forum mentioned something - a thought about the younger group seeming to get hit the worst and whether it could be related to the fact that the 20-40ish age group is the group LEAST likely to have ever gotten a flu shot of any sort... know what I mean? It's the elderly and the ones with bad immune systems or people in high risk jobs - like my mother - she gets the flu shot every year because she works in a manor with elderly people...I guess the risk is more to THEM than it is to HER, ie, she gets the shot to avoid getting the flu and bringing it in there - or other people working in/around the healthcare environment ~~~ hey, which makes me wonder.... when SARS was all around, there were health care workers - nurses and doctors and such - catching it, and, sadly, some even died from it themselves.... odd that there doesn't seem to be the same thing going on here... we keep hearing of young people... then students at a school.... tourists to Mexico... I haven't heard of even one nurse, doctor, etc having caught this.... odd. (Not that I want them to! Just making an observation)

[Perry]

See, I hear the talk of having "samples" taken from people with the flu - and I think Huh? Because I've never known *anyone* with the flu who had any sort of tests run -- I can hardly think of anyone who ever even went to a doctor (despite feeling like they'd been run down by a haul truck) because of the way you just get sent home, never mind special samples taken... maybe it's treated differently in different places, or with different groups of people - I suppose if a flu hit a nursing home or something, they'd test... or someone *extremely sick* and in hospital...

 

(I've actually witnessed some very rude doctors - to the point where they accuse you of wasting their time when you come in with the flu because it can't be treated and you're just spreading your germs in the waiting room...not much wonder people are discouraged from getting checked out!)

 

Someone on another forum mentioned something - a thought about the younger group seeming to get hit the worst and whether it could be related to the fact that the 20-40ish age group is the group LEAST likely to have ever gotten a flu shot of any sort... know what I mean? It's the elderly and the ones with bad immune systems or people in high risk jobs - like my mother - she gets the flu shot every year because she works in a manor with elderly people...I guess the risk is more to THEM than it is to HER, ie, she gets the shot to avoid getting the flu and bringing it in there - or other people working in/around the healthcare environment ~~~ hey, which makes me wonder.... when SARS was all around, there were health care workers - nurses and doctors and such - catching it, and, sadly, some even died from it themselves.... odd that there doesn't seem to be the same thing going on here... we keep hearing of young people... then students at a school.... tourists to Mexico... I haven't heard of even one nurse, doctor, etc having caught this.... odd. (Not that I want them to! Just making an observation)

 

The Department of Defense has a very large surveillance program, collecting samples from designated sites worldwide. DHHS also runs the National Influenza Surveillance System, which has a number of different components. It depends largely on clinics and physicians who have agreed to participate in the system as part of the "Sentinel Provider Network". These are scattered throught the country and are entirely voluntary. State and county Public Health departments may also do surveillance.

 

From a clinical perspective, there is no need to do anything more than an office based rapid flu test. Knowing which strain of flu a patient has won't change treatment in any way, so further analysis is costly and unnecessary. The purpose of surveillance is to understand what is going on with influenza in populations, rather than an individual.

[Tree House Academy]

See, all the info is not available in one place. On BBC.com, it states that Mexico reported increased flu cases around the 18th of March. That being said, Mexico has been dealing with this now for over a month. That makes a lot of sense as to why more people there have this strain and more hospitalizations/deaths have occurred. It also lets us know that there could have been many, many cases of flu there that did not send anyone to the hospital.

 

There is a lot of talk also about false/downplayed reports from the Mexican government. On the BBC website, the reporter spoke with a man who works in the hospital (who would not let them name him) and he said that 30 people in that hospital had died...including a nurse that treated one of the first patients that came in with the H1N1 flu. http://www.bbc.co.uk/

 

On NPR news, there was a talk show that featured two doctors. http://wamu.org/programs/dr/ Someone asked the question about how this virus was similar to the one in the pandemic of 1918. He said that both were the H1N1 virus, but in 1918, the H1 viruses were not in the population at all and everyone was succeptable (just as Perry said in a previous post), however, now we have an H1N1 human strain that does go around...which could explain some of why the cases are more mild.

 

We are really just in such a wait and see pattern right now.

[fivetails]

The Department of Defense has a very large surveillance program, collecting samples from designated sites worldwide. DHHS also runs the National Influenza Surveillance System, which has a number of different components. It depends largely on clinics and physicians who have agreed to participate in the system as part of the "Sentinel Provider Network". These are scattered throught the country and are entirely voluntary. State and county Public Health departments may also do surveillance.

 

From a clinical perspective, there is no need to do anything more than an office based rapid flu test. Knowing which strain of flu a patient has won't change treatment in any way, so further analysis is costly and unnecessary. The purpose of surveillance is to understand what is going on with influenza in populations, rather than an individual.

 

Ahhh, I see. Thanks for explaining how that works. :)

[fivetails]

...including a nurse that treated one of the first patients that came in with the H1N1 flu. http://www.bbc.co.uk/

 

 

 

There it is. I was wondering about that further up ^^^ ....how there could be so many people dropping like flies and yet no reports of any doctors or nurses in that mix - especially when many of the doctors and nurses would likely fit the 20-40 hardest hit age group...

[Supertechmom]

I jokingly told my dh last night that we don't have to be too worried because we already had it. I almost wonder if something similar went through Phoenix last summer. We had something horrible. None of us had ever been that sick in our lives. Well, dh had but that was encephalitis when he was a teenager. We had fever, vomiting, diarrhea, felt like we had been hit by a truck we hurt and ached so bad, and a nasty headache. I laid in bed for three days and it was all I could do to lift my head off the pillow to try and sip something. We all got it but the dc weren't nearly as sick as dh and I. Our oldest was the sickest of the kids and our youngest was 2 at the time and she barely acted sick. I was so glad we weren't all sick at the same time. Our oldest ds was able to at least feed the other children for a day while I was nearly passed out. It was so awful! Quite a few of our neighbors had it as well but no other family members in other parts of the country ever got sick and they didn't know of anyone else who had it. It was weird!

 

 

We had this a month or so ago. Hubby and I were far sicker and thank God the oldest two were able to feed and handle things themselves and the 2 year old. We did take the oldest to the dr when he first got sick (he was the first and very very sick) and it was identified as flu but nobody typed it. Mabye it has been around longer than anyone thought?

[Alicia64]

I just heard through friends that the military is being issued large shipments of gas masks and gloves etc. to keep themselves safe while they help the populace.

 

It sounds like the gov't is taking this situation more seriously than they're even saying.

 

Alicia

[Barb_]

I jokingly told my dh last night that we don't have to be too worried because we already had it. I almost wonder if something similar went through Phoenix last summer. We had something horrible. None of us had ever been that sick in our lives. Well, dh had but that was encephalitis when he was a teenager. We had fever, vomiting, diarrhea, felt like we had been hit by a truck we hurt and ached so bad, and a nasty headache. I laid in bed for three days and it was all I could do to lift my head off the pillow to try and sip something. We all got it but the dc weren't nearly as sick as dh and I. Our oldest was the sickest of the kids and our youngest was 2 at the time and she barely acted sick. I was so glad we weren't all sick at the same time. Our oldest ds was able to at least feed the other children for a day while I was nearly passed out. It was so awful! Quite a few of our neighbors had it as well but no other family members in other parts of the country ever got sick and they didn't know of anyone else who had it. It was weird!

 

Interesting. I'm in the Phoenix area and I got this in March. It came out of nowhere and hit me like a Mack truck. First a migrane-type headache and exhaustion with a sore throat and nausea. Within a few hours the vomiting began and went on all night progressing to diarrhea. I thought I had food poisoning. I was in bed for days afterward and didn't begin to feel like myself for a couple of weeks. My 14 and 12yo's got it, but not as badly as me. The rest of the children had nothing but mild complaints and crankiness...even the baby who at one point was nursing as I began to throw up. That never happens. Dh had the flu shot because he works in a hospital. He never got it either.

 

Barb

[fivetails]

I wonder... if this starts showing up in more places, will they ("they"??) start trying to quarrantine people? I mean, well.. can they even do that? I'm picturing something from a movie or something in my head here, craziness - people held in their homes by armed guards and ridiculousness like that, YES I have an overactive imagination :tongue_smilie: and it's running off on me again. But still. I mean, do they *do* that kinda thing anywhere anymore? (ever did?)

 

~ quarrantine? quarantine? doesn't look right with two Rs or with just one! Maybe it's just one of those words that never looks right...

[fivetails]

~~~and while we're on the topic of overactive imaginations~~~

 

The Stand was awesome, but y'know... I'm almost kinda nearly wishing I'd never read it. Almost kinda nearly because the man is a genius and I could never REALLY wish to take back a reading of anything he's written...but still! Durrrr.

 

//tangent

[fshinkevich]

I thought this article did a good job of answering common questions.

 

http://health.yahoo.com/news/ap/med_healthbeat_swine_flu_q_a.html

[Tree House Academy]

I thought this article did a good job of answering common questions.

 

http://health.yahoo.com/news/ap/med_healthbeat_swine_flu_q_a.html

 

That was very helpful without being frightening. Thank you for posting.

[Peek a Boo]

I wonder... if this starts showing up in more places, will they ("they"??) start trying to quarrantine people? I mean, well.. can they even do that? I'm picturing something from a movie or something in my head here, craziness - people held in their homes by armed guards and ridiculousness like that, YES I have an overactive imagination :tongue_smilie: and it's running off on me again. But still. I mean, do they *do* that kinda thing anywhere anymore? (ever did?)

 

~ quarrantine? quarantine? doesn't look right with two Rs or with just one! Maybe it's just one of those words that never looks right...

 

 

one r :)

 

: putting on my conspiracy theory hat:

 

IF they decided they needed to quarantine anyone, it is much easier to do that in a larger facility [like a high school or a church] than in individual homes. And it would likely be a voluntary quarantine request at first, which will sound reasonable to people cuz they will want to keep their family safe. Besides, schools are GOOD places, right?! remember when people stayed at hastily-set-up church shelters after katrina and other natural disasters? We're already used to going somewhere BIG and easy to control access in /out of.

 

The joke when i was in high school [and you can google this-Alex Jones is the biggest Detention center conspiracy guy, i think, and FEMA is usually pegged as The Bad Guys] was that the Very Large Gates were designed to keep people IN, not necessarily OUT: instant quarantine facility /concentration camp/ military base. Pick your poison ;)

 

and yes, there are several executive orders that can be put in play under martial law to execute anything they want. I don't think we'll see THAT with THIS tho. ;)

 

:who would like the hat next?:

:lurk5:

[Laura Corin]

Having been in the UK for the mad cow/CJD scare, in Hong Kong for SARS and in China for Bird Flu I have become very relaxed about such issues. For the vast majority of people who lived in those areas and had decent health care, there was nothing to worry about.

 

Laura

[fivetails]

I wonder... if this starts showing up in more places, will they ("they"??) start trying to quarrantine people? I mean, well.. can they even do that? I'm picturing something from a movie or something in my head here, craziness - people held in their homes by armed guards and ridiculousness like that, YES I have an overactive imagination :tongue_smilie: and it's running off on me again. But still. I mean, do they *do* that kinda thing anywhere anymore? (ever did?)

 

~ quarrantine? quarantine? doesn't look right with two Rs or with just one! Maybe it's just one of those words that never looks right...

 

one r :)

 

: putting on my conspiracy theory hat:

 

IF they decided they needed to quarantine anyone, it is much easier to do that in a larger facility [like a high school or a church] than in individual homes. And it would likely be a voluntary quarantine request at first, which will sound reasonable to people cuz they will want to keep their family safe. Besides, schools are GOOD places, right?! remember when people stayed at hastily-set-up church shelters after katrina and other natural disasters? We're already used to going somewhere BIG and easy to control access in /out of.

 

The joke when i was in high school [and you can google this-Alex Jones is the biggest Detention center conspiracy guy, i think, and FEMA is usually pegged as The Bad Guys] was that the Very Large Gates were designed to keep people IN, not necessarily OUT: instant quarantine facility /concentration camp/ military base. Pick your poison ;)

 

and yes, there are several executive orders that can be put in play under martial law to execute anything they want. I don't think we'll see THAT with THIS tho. ;)

 

:who would like the hat next?:

:lurk5:

 

You're right, it does make much more sense to use a larger facility - and I just came from seeing a few photos on CNN that showed GUARDS standing outside the hospitals themselves in Mexico. :001_huh:

 

I'll have to google your Alex Jones fella - sounds like there might be some interesting reading there...

 

Wild theories are abounding on a few boards I've seen - there was one yesterday where someone said that this might have been intentionally released in retaliation for something that was sent overseas recently, something to do with the other kind of flu, the bird one... another that this was some sort of experiment gone awry...

 

I wonder if we have the same "martial law" sort of thing up here.. if our "they" could use something like that.... Ha, I can see it now, Canadian mounties politely rounding up sick people, apologizing and promising a stop at Tims along the way. ;)

[Highereducation]

You're right, it does make much more sense to use a larger facility - and I just came from seeing a few photos on CNN that showed GUARDS standing outside the hospitals themselves in Mexico. :001_huh:

 

I'll have to google your Alex Jones fella - sounds like there might be some interesting reading there...

 

Wild theories are abounding on a few boards I've seen - there was one yesterday where someone said that this might have been intentionally released in retaliation for something that was sent overseas recently, something to do with the other kind of flu, the bird one... another that this was some sort of experiment gone awry...

 

I wonder if we have the same "martial law" sort of thing up here.. if our "they" could use something like that.... Ha, I can see it now, Canadian mounties politely rounding up sick people, apologizing and promising a stop at Tims along the way. ;)

 

You two want some conspiracy reading? Try Rense.com. Some of the stuff on there makes me scratch my head; some of it makes me want to direct the writers to the spell check and a crash grammar course - and some of it links to information released overseas that we don't necessarily get here. Interesting reading, at the very least, and some intriguing ideas for the novel I've always been meaning to write!