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Were you expecting and/or preparing for the economy to play out the way it has?


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We sort of knew what was coming and actually expected it a few years sooner which probably would have been better for it may have led to a faster recovery. DH understood all to well the way economics work and has been educating me over the years.

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If we had expected it, we would not own still own any stock or mutual funds. We would have sold them all during the summer if we had known that the stock market would plummet. I don't think anyone can say with a straight face, "I saw this coming" if they currently own any significant investments although I know a lot of people who do exactly that, and when pressed on this point they will hem and haw and say they saw it coming but not exactly when it would come.

 

I will say that we understood that this could happen and we certainly understood that the housing market was going to need a major correction. We also understood basic economic principals - that "investment debt" is still debt and no matter how much you want to call debt for education, housing, or business opportunity "good debt" this is no "good debt" if you don't have sufficient income to pay it.

 

When I look at the people I know who are out of work, I didn't really predict that they would be.

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We didn't expect the stock market to crash. We have suffered terrible losses. It has literally changed everything. For the last five years, we have been getting a substancial quarterly check from our broker with which we paid our mortgage and our son's college tuition ( and DD23's tuition before that). One day last summer, just about 2 months before the "crash" we both decided it was time to stop the payout and just take a lump sum out and pay off the mortgage. I don't know why we thought to do it. But we both agreed. So DH calls our broker and the broker talks him out of it saying what a great deal we had going and how well it had worked for us for the last 5 years. He was right.....so DH acquiesced. TWO MONTHS LATER, the market crashed.

 

At this point, we don't have the principle (over and above the 401K stuff) to even pay off the mortgage if we wanted to anymore! We don't get the check anymore, of course, so we have to take the mortgage out of DH's income. It has put us in a very tight bind. DS22 is moving home because we can't afford his rent anymore and he's going to have to take out loans to pay his tuition. We have a TINY 3 bedroom house, so DD17 is moving up the hill into my MIL's house. (DD17 gets along with grandparents, DD22 could never live there!)

 

What a mess! We have learned ONE thing from this. The next time the Lord prompts us to take some kind of action.....even if it doesn't seem to make sense......we will follow through! We are also looking towards this time with our son to have a positive influence on him in the areas of physical and spiritual health since he struggles in those areas.....trying to see the glass half full here!

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I've seen the market ebb and flow, especially during an election cycle. Didn't expect this much of a drop. I have a public school education and the financial knowledge and understanding I have is based on past experience, not any true understanding of economic systems.

 

My mom worked 20+ years for a company and was laid off in July. She saved (large cash savings) and invested (401K) and now will have to depend on unemployment and then social security mixed with her cash. She has lived frugally her whole life. This is the third "starting over" she has done. She escaped an abusive marriage with the shirt on her back and no education, remarried and was a SAHM until second dh left her with debt and no credit or car (walked to the bus, creditors called until the phone got disconnected), suffered through thyroid condition, got her footing and job (the one she was laid off) bought her own place (back before prices were crazy) and saved saved saved and went to work EVERYDAY.

 

My TSP (used to be a well-paid gov't employee) statement came in and remains sealed in the envelope. I just can't open it. My dh keep contributing to his 401K (buy low!??), but I suggested he put that money towards paying off our modest mortgage instead.

 

I feel more and more lost everyday.

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Yes, we knew it was going to happen. We've lived in a place that was ahead of the curve, for the last 3 years, and before that, lived in a place where there was an enormous housing bubble. The reason why we moved from bubble-grand-central, was because dh knew that it would not last, and knew that when it went bad, it would all go bad. Very bad. He tried to tell people that. He wanted us in a more secure location. This "more secure" place, was ahead of its time, as far as a recession, and we've been coping with that, since we moved here. We did sell our "big, expensive" home, last spring, because we knew we wanted a smaller payment, and that the housing bubble was going to pop soon, and then our expensive home wouldn't be worth much to us, as a sale goes, anymore. We signed the papers on the sale of the old house, at a nice profit for only 2 years, and our new, more modest, and in-town house, in August. (We were in a state of panic all summer, hoping and praying that the house would sell, asap...saw it coming.) We also cashed out a large portion of our investments last spring and put the rest into long-term, "safe" stocks. So far, we've hardly lost anything. In fact, we are in better shape this year, than last.

 

One note of hope. Our little town has been in a housing recession for a few years, and dh is in that industry. Things are looking up this winter. Way up. Like I said before, we are ahead of the curve here, for one reason and another, and things are getting better. This will be our best year, as far as income, in 3 years. Life is gonna be ok. It's going to get better. I don't know if any of us will ever really be the same again, but sometimes a good learning experience is worth the pain that causes us to grow and understand. Hang in there.

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Yes. What goes up must come down. I saw the housing bubble burst when I worked in a real estate office as a teenager back in the 1980s, and I've been saying for a few years that it would happen again. And we've all seen the stock market keep rising and rising and rising; many young people didn't really realize it would/could/should come down at some point. If you put $100 in, then it rises to $1000, and then falls back down to $100, I don't think you've really lost anything. I know that some people are feeling lucky right now to walk away with their $100, but I honestly think the stock market is like gambling - you shouldn't gamble what you can't afford to lose. Too bad my Mom didn't listen to me...

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I expected that there would be a bursting of the housing bubble. The high prices of houses in the DC area led us not to buy when we lived there (even though we probably would have made money if we'd sold when we moved).

 

What I didn't expect was the unpredictability of the government responses. That some companies or industries are given bailouts while others are left to fail.

 

In one way, I didn't expect the market to keep dropping over the winter. We actually put more money into the market late last fall, when prices for our funds were lower than we'd seen in a long time.

 

On the other hand, I did wonder if we'd hit bottom. We only put in about 2/3 of what we'd discussed. I wanted to hold some back in case the market continued south. I'm still waiting.

 

We've always been long term investors. We're still on the younger end of our employment life. So I'm pretty neutral about the cycles of the markets. But I didn't expect to wonder if the companies we're invested in would even exist in ten years.

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Oh yes. I listen to that completely insane Glenn Beck person who has been telling us we're all going to CRASH AND BURN for some time now. :lol:

 

That said, we didn't have much investments to lose, but we did keep most of the peanuts we had. We managed previously to get out of an ARM a couple years ago and I've got a decent enough stock pile to cut our groceries. Not survive for 10 years of a depression or anything, but enough to do what that other couple does by rotating out, buying extra when prices are low, etc. It helped a bunch when my dh took a pay cut.

 

More than anything, it has helped with the emotional/mental blow of what is going on. I have had time to prepare a bit in that area.

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Expected -- Yes. Dh has been singing the doom and gloom economy since he read Boom Bust & Echo shortly after university. Many books spoke about this coming and now arrived recession (hopefully not a full-blown depression).

 

Prepared -- Yes, as much as we could be. Debt-reduction; bailing out of the cyclical oil&gas industry while all of our friends were still swimming in cash/heavy-duty stock options; cashing out of the market/RRSP's and sinking our $ into real estate and finding residual streams of income.

 

I'm still shocked that things are as bad as they are . . . but the fake economy couldn't keep chugging, esp. by piggy-backing on underwater mtg's.

 

I keep telling myself that God is God and the economy is not.

 

T

Edited by Sweetpeach
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Yes, I expected this to happen eventually. Gravity - What goes up must come down and better pray that on their way up that they didn't step on others to get there because they will encounter these folks again.

 

As I stated on another post (x-post):"Six years ago I predicted this, it was because DH want to by a big overpriced home in a secluded pricey neighborhood for DS to grow up in basis on what he could make in the future and what the house would be worth down the road...I told DH, I quote "have you lost your mind, if it sounds to good to be true it is". Why would you buy a home that you knew under old traditional lending they would never lend to you because you couldn't afford it. Think a 15 year fixed mortgage with 20% down and the payment with taxes and insurance was less than 25% of your proven income." Also, this country has become reliable on credit (cards, auto loan, student loan, personal loan, etc.)

 

The stock market is a gamble and was not treated as such for many investors. As with any gambling - you win some or you lose some, and it's nice if you break even.

 

I think we were prepared because we don't have debt other than the house and we are a pretty frugal energy saving family. However, we never imagined that it would be this bad where the bad decisions of other has domino to affect us all; Business are failing left and right, State/city cutbacks has reduced services and with unemployment so high, crime will increase with little policing.

 

We need to work together to come up with a preventative plan because right now the only solution I see is the government throwing money(that we don't have-I might add) at this crisis.

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Guest Lorna

A UK perspective:

 

I was taught never to borrow more than two and a half times one's income and that house prices are naturally tied to this rule.

For example:

Average income 30, 000 = Average house price 75,000

Approximate of course but way, way off what the house prices are now.

 

 

We deliberately sold our house in England at the height of the madness. Our buyer got himself a large 100% mortgage on a huge house that was only half covered for heating. Crazy. His life I guess.

 

Here in London the estate agents are only selling two houses a month on average. Each week we get several flyers from local agents. A few days ago they were delivered by men in suits - the office staff.

 

We would like to buy a house but it doesn't make sense to, as far as I can see, for at least a couple of years. The houses are still way off being a realistic price, in my opinion. It makes sense for us to rent while more and more rental properties are coming onto the market. No one wants to sell, no one wants to buy.

 

Sadly the thirty percent of the population that rent, largely the poor saving for their first home or not, are not being compensated for their savings losing their value (through low interest rates and, here in the UK, the government printing more money).

 

Everyone is a loser in a recession. Governments become protectionist and make things worse....oh dear I must stop I am feeling very gloomy.

 

Today I found out my mother's godmother left me a small amount of money. It should be a nice thing. She has saved for years. She would expect me to put it towards my savings or our home. I feel the world is gone topsy-turvy. It might just disappear over the coming year. What is the responsible thing to do? Should we teach our children that it is irresponsible spenders that get bailed out and the right thing to do is borrow and not save?

 

Dh says the cruelest thing someone could do to me is to leave me a sum of money.

 

Hugs to everyone who is going through this - and that literally means ultimately everyone.

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Yes. I don't know how one couldn't see something about to fall apart. You can't spend that much on war, and not pay for it sometime. Also, the housing situation --- those sub-prime mortgages --- always seemed too good to be true, and they were. Then there is the climbing debt issue -- both average personal debts, and national debt. Yikes! :eek:

 

I'm very skeptical, though -- an "always prepare for the worst" type, especially when it comes to economic/financial situations.

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I think we knew it was on the verge of blowing, but we sort of ignored it and kept doing what we do.

 

NOW we are finally awake and have given up many luxuries (not the internet, not the internet!!!) in order to pay down debt. We regret so many of our choices from years past.

 

So, 1)saw it coming? yes 2) prepared for it? sadly, no.

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Did I see it coming? Nope. I didn't pay any attention to anything until the ARM's resetting made the news. Then I knew it was going to be bad. I'm extremely happy that we didn't get stuck with a bubble house. When we bought we were living in an already economically depressed area. The bubble never made it there. Of course we are stuck with a house that we will probably never unload, but we owe less on it than most people owe for their vehicle. I should have it paid off in the next 5 years. By then I'm hopping the market will turn around and things normalize.

 

Now, our TSP has taken quite a hit. In the last 6 months it has been cut in half.

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A cyclical economy doesn't surprise me, no. Neither does the current level of recession, really. What surprises me are the constant references to the Great Depression, when the two cycles aren't genuinely comparable (in my opinion). As for preparedness, we've not done anything differently based on market swings, and the stock market has never attracted us.

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;)

Oh yes. I listen to that completely insane Glenn Beck person who has been telling us we're all going to CRASH AND BURN for some time now. :lol:

 

 

 

Yep! Us too. The thing is, I told dh about 6 years ago that I felt this was coming...it was before I started listening to Glenn Beck, though. Glenn Beck just put more substance to what my gut was saying.

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If you put $100 in, then it rises to $1000, and then falls back down to $100, I don't think you've really lost anything.

 

Yes. I am tired of hearing, "I lost $50,000....woah is me...."

It wasn't like that 50G was real money they worked for it and actually misplaced it.

It was never "real" to begin with, just a big gamble.

The only real money they put in, they still have and then a bit more.

So in my mind, they're still ahead, just not as much as they were.

 

I am speaking of someone I know.

I do realize that others have a different scenario.

 

These are very scary times.

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I have thought for a long time that there was no possible way for the Stock Market NOT to crash. Baby boomers have been buying stock as a retirement investment vehicle for a long time now. They all start retiring at about the same time. There is not enough of the younger generations to buy all of the stock they are looking to sell. Same situation with the housing market, they bought in early adulthood and then started selling or making the reverse mortgage deals to fund retirement. Basically the same problem as SS. ANd that is just dealing with the population issues. Add in a growing government, increased government spending, wars, a failed monetary policy, and so on and so forth. Of course, we were headed for a crash and people have been saying this for a long time now. I read a book in college outlining the coming depression. That was a long time ago.

 

Human nature being what it is though, I didn't prepare as well as I should have. I thought I had more time. Unfortunately, I think that it is going to get a lot worse and not get any better in my life time.

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I don't think it's a fair assessment to say that the stock market has crashed; it hasn't. It's just lower than it's been for a while. It will come back up. This is a buyer's market.

 

Yes, we were prepared, but not because we lived in fear and trepidation. We keep our savings diversified. We have no debt save for the mortgage, and that's well within our budget and always has been. We live within our means. All that pays off over time, and especially in times like these.

 

Ria

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In 2006 when we moved back to the US, we decided to rent as we didn't think we would live in that area long enough to make it worthwhile. We rented and others who bought then have lost money. Then last year, we could have had dh retire. I told him to wait to see if he got the promotion since I thought the economy would get worse and it was not a great time to look for jobs especially if a Democrat was elected President (my husband would be looking for defense jobs and defense spending typically falls in a Democrat administration, not a political comment). He was selected for promotion and because he stayed in, we will have a better retirement and one of our children will get most of their college fully paid.

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Oh yes. I listen to that completely insane Glenn Beck person who has been telling us we're all going to CRASH AND BURN for some time now. :lol:

 

 

I love listening to Glenn Beck, but I hate it, hate it, hate it when he's right. I listen to him as a "worst case scenario" guy and then he hits the nail on the head and I want to cry. It's a good thing he's funny or I'd have to stick my head in the sand and cry.

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I don't know; looks like a crash to me. Maybe a crash in slow motion.

 

While the market today is suffering losses, the cause is very different from that of the Great Depression. You really can't compare the two, nor the resulting recession/depression. Very different times and events....our "hardships" now are nothing like they were then. Nowhere near.

 

Ria

Edited by Ria
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While the market today is suffering losses, the cause is very different from that of the Great Depression. You really can't compare the two, nor the resulting recession/depression. Very different times and events....our "hardships" now are nothing like they were then. Nowhere near.

 

Ria

 

Yep. And that's what scares me. We're in uncharted territory and it's coming from many different directions now.

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FYI: For those who are saying what a "gamble" the stock market is/ has been. Well, the fact is, that if you take any 10 years since the stock market began, including all "crashes" and during the depression, there has NEVER been an overall loss from year one to year ten. NEVER. So, a diversified portfolio in conservative stocks with plans to stay in more then 10 years, has never been much of a gamble. Not untill possibly now. We will all see how this one plays out....I'm hoping for tradition to prevail, since we do have investments in the market and have lost a lot of money.

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FYI: For those who are saying what a "gamble" the stock market is/ has been. Well, the fact is, that if you take any 10 years since the stock market began, including all "crashes" and during the depression, there has NEVER been an overall loss from year one to year ten. NEVER.

 

Dave Ramsey keeps saying this, and it drives me nuts. We are at 12-year lows. (At least we were last week. I think we still are but I haven't double checked.) That means that if you put money in in 1996 and left it in until now, you lost money. So this oft-cited fact is no longer true. I keep waiting to see if Dave Ramsey addresses this.

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Dave Ramsey keeps saying this, and it drives me nuts. We are at 12-year lows. (At least we were last week. I think we still are but I haven't double checked.) That means that if you put money in in 1996 and left it in until now, you lost money. So this oft-cited fact is no longer true. I keep waiting to see if Dave Ramsey addresses this.

 

If one knows how to play the market, one probably made a good deal of money from 1996 to now. Knowing when to buy and when to sell is all part of being market-saavy. Apple stock is a good buy right now, lol.

 

Ria

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Yes and no. The analysts have been predicting this for several years, so yes it was expected, but it hasn't exactly played out like we thought. We changed where we were investing money a while ago, but left some money in the market to weather the storm, so to speak. Our biggest change was stopping the extra payments on the house and just piling the money into typical savings accounts, so we can still access it if needed. Dh's job is quite secure (they are having record sales right now), but if his company has layoffs in his industry, at his level...it means that we are Far from recovery as a country and it will be a long time before anything will change.

 

We are fine because we typically plan for the unexpected. But the one thing that caught us off guard was the recent hours cut in my industry, which has always been seen a recession proof. I work in pharmacy. The powers that be have decided to have our chain of pharmacies stay open an hour later, and cut technician help by 20-30% to pay for the labor of the pharmacists during this extra hour. I wasn't affected by the cut backs this time. It does changes our fall back plan of me returning to work full-time, to less of a reality if something happened to dh's job.

Edited by Tap, tap, tap
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Dave Ramsey keeps saying this, and it drives me nuts. We are at 12-year lows. (At least we were last week. I think we still are but I haven't double checked.) That means that if you put money in in 1996 and left it in until now, you lost money. So this oft-cited fact is no longer true. I keep waiting to see if Dave Ramsey addresses this.

 

I keep listening and thinking about this too. I agree with most of what DR says, but the stock market has always worried me a bit. If I had a significant amount of money to worry about (which I don't) I'm not convinced I would put it in the stock market. It has always seemed like such a gamble to me....even long term....but I'm fairly conservative in my spending thinking.

 

That said....we are going to WDW next month. Who does THAT in this economy. :tongue_smilie:

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If one knows how to play the market, one probably made a good deal of money from 1996 to now. Knowing when to buy and when to sell is all part of being market-saavy.

 

That's not what Dave Ramsey recommends (and others like him, like the people at Motley Fool). They recommend buy-and-hold-forever, without regard to what's going on in the overall economy. They think it's impossible to know what the future is, so you just bet that in the long run it's all going to be good.

 

It is difficult to pin-point exactly when the top is going to be, before it happens. But people who are bullish tend to continue to be bullish even when they shouldn't be anymore, and people who are bearish tend to get out too early. I remember a coworker telling me in 1995 that he thought the stock market was overvalued and heading for a correction even then. And if you look at a chart, it was starting to go up faster then. It kept booming probably longer than it "naturally" would have because of all of the baby boomer money coming in. The baby boomers are starting to retire, which is another thing not good for the next 20 or so years of the stock market (besides everything else).

 

We pulled our very meager retirement out last March, when things were just starting to look bad. May would have been better, lol. But March 2008 looks a lot better than now. People thought we were nuts last March. I think public opinion is starting to change, though. People on the Dave Ramsey bulletin boards still tend to think everything will be okay in the long run, but the people commenting on the Motley Fool daily articles are starting to disbelieve the typical buy-and-hold-forever line.

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Dave Ramsey keeps saying this, and it drives me nuts. We are at 12-year lows. (At least we were last week. I think we still are but I haven't double checked.) That means that if you put money in in 1996 and left it in until now, you lost money. So this oft-cited fact is no longer true. I keep waiting to see if Dave Ramsey addresses this.

 

Yes, we had a very diversified portfolio in 1999. Very safe investments, as low risk as you can get in the stock market: money market accounts, some foreign companies, blue chip stocks, bonds. We lost money. Maybe not what everyone would consider a lot of money but a lot of money for us. Real money, not paper assets but the actual money we put in. ANd yet, my hubby still insists on buying stock because he is still buying the bull. And even if he changed his tune right now and decided to pull his money out tomorrow, we would suffer a serious penalty and lose quiet a bit. So now it is a gamble to we want to lose some now or possibly all later.

 

And Ria, you are right, it is a buyers market right now. The problem is, no one has any money to buy and the people who already have money in the market are reaching a stage in their lives when they need to start pulling their money out. This is being exacerbated by all of the additional people who are now needing to pull their money just to live: to forstall foreclosure, feed their families, provide medical care and so on. It only going to get worse. This is not even taking into acct. inflation and the fact that the dollar is worth less and less every day.

 

It used to be that real estate was the one sure safe investment. It wasn't a matter of privilage, it was a matter of being the only vehicle many had to improve their financial lot in life and provide for retirement. When done wisely, it was often cheaper than renting. So putting your money into tangible assets verus throwing it away was a no brainer. Granted there were many people who did not invest wisely. That doesn't erase the basic logic behind investing in real estate.

 

Now, we have people losing money in the stock market, losing their jobs, losing their homes and the devaluation of the dollar, government spending run amuck, etc. The whole society is going to suffer and it is not all the fault of stupid people gambling their money away and making foolish choices regarding housing. Most people were following what was considered the logical choices of most financial advisers in America.

 

I personally know that of which I speak. In 2001 my dh changed jobs to one that paid approximately 2/3 less than he was making before. We have moved with his career about 13 times in a many years. One of these moves caused us to have to sell a house at a loss after 9 months on the market because we couldn't afford to keep making the payment. That city is a ghost town now filled by a preponderance of boarded up houses. We were lucky to sell at all. We have lost money in the stock market. At the beginning of last year, my dh lost his job. A month later, my mother passed away and we had to take out a loan to pay for her funeral. We have had an unbelievable amount of medical and dental bills. I pay a fairly large premium for medical insurance and $300 a month for prescription meds. There is no way we could weather another blow. The only reason we are keeping our head above water right now is shear dumb luck. Oh that and the student loans we are still paying that allows my dh to get a job in a field that is still doing and paying well.

 

Now what I think we should do about it is another matter entirely and one I can't really get into without getting mighty close to the no politics line. But I certainly don't think that the government should be bailing out private companies.

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My dh and I read a book back in the early 90's by Larry Burkett called The Coming Economic Earthquake.....In it he predicted that this very thing would happen. People said he was crazy!!!

 

We started paying off our debt in about '95....and have lived without debt other than our house since about '97.....The house will be paid off in about a year and 1/2.....Lord willing.....(said with my southern drawl....)

 

Yes, we saw this coming...... and we have been preparing all along....Just wish the house was paid for....but my security is in the LORD NOT my finances.......HE promises to provide our needs....I have SEEN his hand in our finances OVER and OVER again....

 

Just my thoughts.....

 

Blessings,

 

Brenda:)

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