Is this the start of World War 3?

[Terabith]

Russian missiles have hit in Poland, killing two.  Poland is in NATO, so Article 5 may come into play.  https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-zelenskyy-kherson-9202c032cf3a5c22761ee71b52ff9d52

Edited November 15, 2022 by Terabith

[Harriet Vane]

I will admit to being concerned about that possibility.

[Pawz4me]

A lot seems to depend on whether it's determined to be accidental or deliberate. I'd think the PTB will determine that rather quickly.

[gardenmom5]

It sounds like it was accidental, just over the border - so it really depends on how Russia handles things.  If they grovel an apology or not.

eta: Putin doesn't seem to be one to apologize, but is really dependable to double down (so, I'm not holding my breath he'll apologize for the two Polish dead) . . . . so many lives lost and so much destruction to feed his ego.

Edited November 15, 2022 by gardenmom5

[Terabith]

3 minutes ago, Pawz4me said:

A lot seems to depend on whether it's determined to be accidental or deliberate. I'd think the PTB will determine that rather quickly.

Right.  It seems clear that they didn’t mean to attack Poland.  But they absolutely meant to attack Ukraine. I don’t know what will happen.  

[prairiewindmomma]

Przewodow is very close to the border with Ukraine (just north of Lviv). I would assume it was error rather than deliberate.

If I wanted to start WW3, I would pick a different target.

Edited November 15, 2022 by prairiewindmomma

[Terabith]

This was one of the exact scenarios given as a possible entrance into WW3 when Russia attacked Ukraine at first.  

[Terabith]

1 minute ago, prairiewindmomma said:

Prezewodow is very close to the border with Ukraine (just north of Lviv). I would assume it was error rather than deliberate.

If I wanted to start WW3, I would pick a different target.

Right, I am sure they didn’t mean to attack Poland.  But it wasn’t an accident, like they were transporting rockets and a plane crashed.  They meant to attack someone.  

Edited November 15, 2022 by Terabith
Attack not attach

[mom2scouts]

My son works with many people from Poland. They've been worried about Russian aggression since the start of the war with Ukraine. Several are applying for US jobs in the company and trying to get visas. It may have been an accident, but it's not good.

[prairiewindmomma]

1 minute ago, Terabith said:

This was one of the exact scenarios given as a possible entrance into WW3 when Russia attacked Ukraine at first.  

Plausible deniability tends to be one of their aggression techniques (like the blowing up of NordStream, etc.), but I hope the response will be restrained, for everyone’s sake. War is suffering for nearly everyone (but the companies selling the weapons and a select few in power). It’s sometimes necessary, and the issue is whether the expansion of the war is necessary today. Hopefully not.

The shelling of Lviv has been happening fairly often throughout the war. Why would shelling today be new?

[Pawz4me]

I'm hearing it was about four miles inside Poland.

[bolt.]

That's really bad!

I really hope Russia can find it within their diplomacy agenda to apologize, grovel, make reparations, and promise to do better. And if they do, I hope Poland and NATO can find that acceptable instead of running headlong into war according to 'the letter' of the treaties.

Otherwise: that's really bad.

[Tanaqui]

"We accidentally hit Poland, which used to be part of our territory, while intending to hit Ukraine, whom we've been aggressively trying to reconquer" is not exactly a winning defense.

[Pawz4me]

Russia is denying anything happened (per a statement just read on MSNBC).

[Ting Tang]

1 minute ago, Tanaqui said:

"We accidentally hit Poland, which used to be part of our territory, while intending to hit Ukraine, whom we've been aggressively trying to reconquer" is not exactly a winning defense.

Yes, I believe it was said early on that they may not want to stop with Ukraine.  

[gardenmom5]

Just now, Pawz4me said:

Russia is denying anything happened (per a statement just read on MSNBC).

Of course they did /. . . . . will someone just shoot Putin already and get it over with?

[Terabith]

Just now, Tanaqui said:

"We accidentally hit Poland, which used to be part of our territory, while intending to hit Ukraine, whom we've been aggressively trying to reconquer" is not exactly a winning defense.

Right.  
 

If my child was standing next to another child and a playground bully was pummeling the other child and accidentally hit my kid in the process, I wouldn’t be inclined to give the bully a free pass.  
 

I don’t want war, either, but I don’t know what the right thing to do is.  

[bolt.]

2 minutes ago, Pawz4me said:

Russia is denying anything happened (per a statement just read on MSNBC).

Poop! That's very nearly the worst possible answer. (I guess it would be worse to say, "We'll bomb anyone we like, and we don't care about your stupid fake border or your stupid sovereignty as former soviet states." -- but other than that, "It never happened!" is pretty bad.)

[Pawz4me]

 

[Tanaqui]

4 minutes ago, Ting Tang said:

Yes, I believe it was said early on that they may not want to stop with Ukraine.  

They definitely don't intend to, and anybody who ever thought otherwise was kidding themselves.

Quote

I don’t want war, either, but I don’t know what the right thing to do is.  

Nobody wants war, except Putin, I guess, but some people already don't have a choice.

[bolt.]

4 minutes ago, Tanaqui said:

"We accidentally hit Poland, which used to be part of our territory, while intending to hit Ukraine, whom we've been aggressively trying to reconquer" is not exactly a winning defense.

Not exactly "a winning defense" in terms of public opinion... but treaties are legal documents that have precisely defined terms, conditions, obligations, scenarios, etc. If they claim it was an error, I don't really know, but I imagine that Poland's NATO defense clauses might not be automatically triggered.

If it's not claimed to be "accidental" it's an attack. And with NATO "an attack on one is considered an attack on all" -- which means Russia just attacked a lot of countries in an unprovoked act of undeclared war.

So, yeah, a claim of accident (or lack therof) is a very serious legal issue in a case like this. It doesn't matter if it fails to make Russia look any better. It matters if it might succeed at forestalling various automatic dominoes of mutual defense pacts.

[Grace Hopper]

My thoughts- accidental but consequential. Watching to see how other European nations respond. 

[Hilltopmom]

Well crap. Not what I was expecting this afternoon. Sigh

[TravelingChris]

Can I say I hate Russia???????  From when I was little and rain made me think the Russians were marching in.  (Both my mom and dad plus my paternal grandparents were part of the over 300000 Poles who were put in Siberian Gulags during the first part of the WW2- My gf didn't make it out, as did not most of the people).  

For a while I was even thinking about visiting Russia but haven't wanted to for decades.  I much more want to visit Ukraine, since that is the area my mother is from and I have a lot of ancestors buried in Lviv--- I have seen online the mauseleum, etc.

 

And I don't need this today-first day back in mostly out of brain fog in months- and I have so much to do.  Blaring music to make me happier.

[Heartstrings]

I'm guessing no one in NATO really wants to escalate this war so they are going to choose to let this go, since it wasn't a deliberate attack on Poland  It's really in everyone's interest to just let this one go.

[Pawz4me]

2 minutes ago, Heartstrings said:

I'm guessing no one in NATO really wants to escalate this war so they are going to choose to let this go, since it wasn't a deliberate attack on Poland  It's really in everyone's interest to just let this one go.

I think it's unlikely they'll just let it go. If it's determined to be an accident I'm guessing the response will be to increase military aid (of some sort) to Ukraine. But I really don't think the response will be "well, okay then, carry on."

But I definitely could be wrong.

Edited November 15, 2022 by Pawz4me

[lauraw4321]

Well I’m feeling nauseous now. 

[Heartstrings]

7 minutes ago, Pawz4me said:

I think it's unlikely they'll just let it go. If it's determined to be an accident I'm guessing the response will be to increase military aid (of some sort) to Ukraine. But I really don't think the response will be "well, okay then, carry on."

But I definitely could be wrong.

I didn't mean no response at all, I just don't think NATO is going to use this as a reason to send troops in, or to engage Russia directly, starting WW3.  I think NATO wants to keep the shooting part of this war contained to Ukraine.  If NATO wanted to join the war they could have already.   I could be wrong of course, but this is just my guess.  I think NATO getting involved over this would be an overreaction. 

Edited November 15, 2022 by Heartstrings

[Spy Car]

I'm seeing (unconfirmed) reports that UKR sources are saying they hit that missile. My other understanding is that the missile landed barely inside Poland (just over the Ukrainian border).

I desperately want to Ukrainians to drive the Russians out of their country, at the same time touching off WWIII doesn't sound good to me.

We have a world that may be a little banged up, but it's worth saving.

Trusting that cool heads will prevail.

Bill

 

 

[lauraw4321]

Neither Pentagon nor State Dept. have confirmed. @Spy Car Are you saying UkR forces may have knocked it off path into Poland?

[gardenmom5]

1 minute ago, Spy Car said:

I'm seeing (unconfirmed) reports that UKR sources are saying they hit that missile. My other understanding is that the missile landed barely inside Poland (just over the Ukrainian border).

I desperately want to Ukrainians to drive the Russians out of their country, at the same time touching off WWIII doesn't sound good to me.

We have a world that may be a little banged up, but it's worth saving.

Trusting that cool heads will prevail.

Bill

 

 

The missel landed four miles inside the border, and just over the border from where Russia was attacking power stations - It killed two people.

I doubt it was deliberate, but Russia's attitude about it isn't helping anything.

[Ausmumof3]

Some were predicting something would happen as they didn’t trust Russia’s rapid withdrawal. 

[Pam in CT]

1 hour ago, Tanaqui said:

"We accidentally hit Poland, which used to be part of our territory, while intending to hit Ukraine, whom we've been aggressively trying to reconquer" is not exactly a winning defense.

Indeed not -- to any kind lay understanding or public opinion in Poland (or Ukraine or European members of NATO or US),

but,

doesn't that kind of carefully-parsed needle-threading pretty much define what "diplomacy" and "international law" mean?

[Spy Car]

4 minutes ago, gardenmom5 said:

The missel landed four miles inside the border, and just over the border from where Russia was attacking power stations - It killed two people.

I doubt it was deliberate, but Russia's attitude about it isn't helping anything.

Putin sucks. I'm the last person to argue otherwise.

He's also losing. Our best response is to increase the supply of defensive anti-aircraft (and anti-missile) systems we provide in addition to all the offensive weapons UKR forces need to continue their advances.

Touching off WWIII due to an errant missile doesn't strike me as a good idea.

Bill

 

[prairiewindmomma]

8 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Some were predicting something would happen as they didn’t trust Russia’s rapid withdrawal. 

I think it more likely that they timed this attack for now because it’s the middle of the G20 summit…a bit of a thumbing of the nose at the world.

[Melissa in Australia]

Media here is saying that it hasn't been confirmed by USA if the missiles are from Russia 

[prairiewindmomma]

Both sides are low on ammo, even with the arrival of Iranian drones, and they are headed into winter. I think this is largely an attempt to wipe out the electrical grid before heading into stagnation through winter. People aren’t happy when they don’t have heat, water, or electricity.

I don’t think they are trying to start ww3, nor do I think it likely that anything less than an openly deliberate attack is going to trigger Article 5.

Edited November 15, 2022 by prairiewindmomma

[Spy Car]

9 minutes ago, lauraw4321 said:

Neither Pentagon nor State Dept. have confirmed. @Spy Car Are you saying UkR forces may have knocked it off path into Poland?

Certainly not confirmed. The Russians were showering that entire area (inside Ukraine) with missile attacks. There has been some speculation from UKR forces that this missile *may* have been hit and knocked off course.

All this is currently part of the "fog of war." Nothing definitive.

Bill

[gardenmom5]

10 minutes ago, Spy Car said:

Putin sucks. I'm the last person to argue otherwise.

He's also losing. Our best response is to increase the supply of defensive anti-aircraft (and anti-missile) systems we provide in addition to all the offensive weapons UKR forces need to continue their advances.

Touching off WWIII due to an errant missile doesn't strike me as a good idea.

Bill

 

TBH: that's what scares me the most.  He's the type to destroy something so no one else can have it . . . .

 

eta: i agree about not starting WWIII over an errant missile. The ball is in Russia's court, and they're denying all knowledge of it.   (are they admitting their guidance systems are crap??? Hey Puty boy?)

Edited November 15, 2022 by gardenmom5

[Spy Car]

4 minutes ago, gardenmom5 said:

TBH: that's what scares me the most.  He's the type to destroy something so no one else can have it . . . .

My thinking is that militant-nationalist types who love "strongmen" and embrace their dreams of national glory typically turn very quickly on weak "strongmen" who bring shame, failure, and national disgrace.

It is his own "base" that he has to fear most.

Bill

 

[TravelingChris]

I know there have been some "accidents"

[gardenmom5]

2 minutes ago, Spy Car said:

My thinking is that militant-nationalist types who love "strongmen" and embrace their dreams of national glory typically turn very quickly on weak "strongmen" who bring shame, failure, and national disgrace.

It is his own "base" that he has to fear most.

Bill

 

"the base" that have been falling out of windows or dying suddenly from other means?   Rumors are there have already been attempts by his supporters to take him out.
You'd think the oligarchs would take him out, considering how much money and assets they've had frozen due to him.

[Ausmumof3]

I’m definitely no strategist but 

16 minutes ago, prairiewindmomma said:

I think it more likely that they timed this attack for now because it’s the middle of the G20 summit…a bit of a thumbing of the nose at the world.

If anything, it seems like a bit of a testing the waters move. Just gauging the reaction.

You’re probably right about the G20 summit. Although anyone know what the deal is with Lavrov? Another reason the timing could be suspicious? Putin refused to attend for fear of being assassinated and then Lavrov had a medical episode while attending? Something like that. 

[Ausmumof3]

 

[MercyA]

58 minutes ago, TravelingChris said:

Can I say I hate Russia??????? 

Just remember it is the leaders who are responsible, not most of the people. I love Arnold Schwarzeneger's video to the Russians:

 

 

[HomeAgain]

Well, muck a duck.

I am distinctly worried about the domino effect of all this.

[Spy Car]

So take this with a huge boulder of salt, but there has been an analysis of the wreckage by a pro-Ukrainian source that is suggesting the missile may have been a Ukrainian defensive missile. 

The fragments are said to include a 48D6 motor that is employed in the 5V55-series missile that are used in the Soviet/Russian-produced S-300 surface-to-air defensive systems that Ukraine has in its arsenal.

None of this is conclusive. 

Bill

[prairiewindmomma]

@Ausmumof3, Indonesian officials said Lavrov was taken to hospital for treatment of a heart condition shortly after arriving on Bali for G20. Russia denied this. Lavrov was there today, and the bombing of Lviv seems to coincide with his departure for the day.

[bolt.]

This is a good article outlining article 5 (collective defense) and article 4 (consultation) as a set of moderate and not-automatic (thank God) responses to aggression against NATO members. I found it informative and reassuring. I don't know anything about the validity of the source though.

https://thehill.com/policy/international/3736968-what-is-article-5-of-the-nato-treaty/

[Ausmumof3]

6 minutes ago, prairiewindmomma said:

@Ausmumof3, Indonesian officials said Lavrov was taken to hospital for treatment of a heart condition shortly after arriving on Bali for G20. Russia denied this. Lavrov was there today, and the bombing of Lviv seems to coincide with his departure for the day.

Ah I hadn’t caught up with that, just the original report about hospitalisation.