wuhan - coronavirus

[SKL]

Re elections, I found it interesting that South Korea had its general election April 15 in-person.  They took various precautions and allowed people in quarantine to vote in the later hours of the day.

[The Governess]

24 minutes ago, square_25 said:

Has this been posted? It tries to figure out which states have a growing and which states have a shrinking COVID-19 problem: 

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/coronavirus-cases-are-still-growing-in-many-u-s-states/

 

Thanks, this is really informative. I’m curious to see what next week’s data looks like for CA... I’ve seen a marked increase in cars on the road, people getting out as much as they are allowed... it’s easier to stay home when it’s gloomy and raining but the weather has been nicer lately. I want to see if that slight uptick for the week ending April 22 is a fluke or a trend.

The amount of pink on that map doesn’t really put me in a celebratory mood...

[The Governess]

Agreed. @square_25

I also wonder if, in the more highly populated areas that haven’t had a lot of cases yet, there will be a baseline percentage of positive tests that will be maintained with the current level of social distancing for a very, very long time and we won’t see the percentage fall below that level anytime soon. 

How do we use this data to make decisions about reopening?

 

Edited April 26, 2020 by lovelearnandlive

[TracyP]

37 minutes ago, square_25 said:

Has this been posted? It tries to figure out which states have a growing and which states have a shrinking COVID-19 problem: 

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/coronavirus-cases-are-still-growing-in-many-u-s-states/

I like that. I've done some playing around trying to figure this out myself, this is nice.

I'm not sure why it's a negative, though. At least that's the tone I read. I thought we wanted to push out the peak so as not to overwhelm the hospital system. Also I have heard some people saying that having different peaks around the country will make it easier to share resources. Isn't this 1) very expected 2) a positive in the long run?

[The Governess]

2 minutes ago, square_25 said:

I don't think we'll be doing this kind of social distancing for that much longer, though. I think we're going to reopen those states, and some of them are going to have large outbreaks :-/. 

 

I guess that’s where more testing, tracing, and strict quarantines for the sick come in? Although I’m not feeling good about our ability to do that anytime soon, or about most states being patient enough.

[Ausmumof3]

18 minutes ago, square_25 said:

 

And for an even more depressing take, some of those places are past their current peaks but have had almost none of the population get infected. That means that they are absolutely ripe for another outbreak as soon as things open up, unless coordination between states and testing and contact tracing are brought rapidly up to scale...

This appears to be happening in China now around Harbin on the Russian border. Not according to official figures but videos of queues etc for the emergency.  
to be honest this is maybe an argument for more rolling/regional lockdowns though.  

[TracyP]

1 minute ago, square_25 said:

 

Why what's a negative? That we're having different peaks? Well, I think optimally we'd have about the same peaks, but some would be lower, and then we'd keep a tight lid on things via testing and contact tracing. But I'm not sure we're ready for that. That's what I'm worried about. 

I guess I see how that could have been best. But if the top 40-50 most populated cities had all peaked at the same time as NYC that would have been... well, not good. If Minneapolis is going to have a major peak, I am sure happier to see it now rather than 2 weeks ago. But maybe overall the spread out peaks will be worse? Huh, I'm not sure.

[Ausmumof3]

1 minute ago, TracyP said:

I guess I see how that could have been best. But if the top 40-50 most populated cities had all peaked at the same time as NYC that would have been... well, not good. If Minneapolis is going to have a major peak, I am sure happier to see it now rather than 2 weeks ago. But maybe overall the spread out peaks will be worse? Huh, I'm not sure.

I think it probably just feels like bad news to the people who think this is over and US has peaked and it’s all downhill from here?

[TracyP]

8 minutes ago, kdsuomi said:

People have been getting out, but that doesn't mean they aren't staying apart. We had a lot of people in town today, but most of them were at the beach and groups were definitely more than six feet apart. (Most people here don't have air conditioning so don't relish staying inside when there's a heatwave.)

I suspect his type of behavior is going to help. It reminds me of a conversation I had with my mom. She is really anxious to get her hair cut. 😋 She was telling me how she wants salons to open back up. But she then said that she expects them to limit customers so they can be very spaced out, wear masks, and disenfect. No matter what the states do, I think our thinking is changed. 

[TracyP]

6 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

I think it probably just feels like bad news to the people who think this is over and US has peaked and it’s all downhill from here?

That makes sense. 

[Pen]

23 minutes ago, TracyP said:

I like that. I've done some playing around trying to figure this out myself, this is nice.

I'm not sure why it's a negative, though. At least that's the tone I read. I thought we wanted to push out the peak so as not to overwhelm the hospital system. Also I have heard some people saying that having different peaks around the country will make it easier to share resources. Isn't this 1) very expected 2) a positive in the long run?

 

That’s what I would tend to think.

 

 I think some people thought the “heartland” could be spared long enough to have good treatment or vaccine.  But I do think it is a lot better to be coming on now than two weeks ago.  I do hope there won’t be a huge area back in rapid exponential growth though ... 

 

 

[TracyP]

2 minutes ago, CuriousMomof3 said:

 

But does that work economically?  Are she and the other customers willing to pay 3 or 4 times as much to pay for the spacing out?  Can the salon continue to stay open on the income they'd get?  

Well, it might have to. In my mom's case, she is high risk. If it is unrealistic to do that kind of spacing all the time, maybe they could at least reserve the first hour for high risk clients. It isn't perfect, but it is better than nothing.

[Pen]

26 minutes ago, StellaM said:

Sorry, am here asking for another favor.

The 'study' on which 'no social distancing needed at schools' in NSW is based has been revealed.

This is an article describing it.

https://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-26/nsw-health-report-tracking-coronavirus-covid-19-cases-in-schools/12185582?pfmredir=sm&sf233211901=1&utm_medium=spredfast&utm_content=sf233211901&utm_campaign=fb_abc_news&utm_source=m.facebook.com&fbclid=IwAR2tPbYZadvHnfq-PrrXMsgcnpsFak0bzlbagXmMKDQNGRsf7wo_PDgveQM

I haven't seen the actual 'study'.

My first thoughts are that it's underpowered. I also know it's not peer reviewed, but I wouldn't neccessarily expect that.

But if someone had the time and patience to read the (short) article for me and give me you impression of how to weight the described study - definitive, suggestive, equivocal, total nonsense, I'd appreciate it very much. 

TIA.

 

The actual study seems to be embedded in the article which you gave the link for.

My initial impression is that I feel relatively less concerned if you end up returning to work— though not that worry is completely alleviated for transmission at work, let alone on bus getting there and home again.  

It sounds persuasive enough, especially if you are masking and Distancing as much as you can, that you may need to focus your argument on transport dangers and potential dangers to staff and others due to you being at risk—if you were to get it and pass it on while presymptomatic, plus at risk person in household (children’s father). 

I don’t know that it is a good study because I dont know if factors in March to mid April were similar to what they will be in winter, but assuming what they report about lack

of secondary transmission to staff is true, and would continue (huge unknowns!!!) , it actually seems like some very surprising good news.

Edited April 26, 2020 by Pen

[ElizabethB]

1 hour ago, TracyP said:

I guess I see how that could have been best. But if the top 40-50 most populated cities had all peaked at the same time as NYC that would have been... well, not good. If Minneapolis is going to have a major peak, I am sure happier to see it now rather than 2 weeks ago. But maybe overall the spread out peaks will be worse? Huh, I'm not sure.

If everthing peaked at once, we likely would have run out of ventilators and there would have been no spare nurses and doctors to go to New York and help out there.

[Pen]

2 minutes ago, StellaM said:

 

Five weeks of the study took place in conditions where parents had already withdrawn children from school, and when state governments had advised parents to withdraw, with attendance for 4 of those weeks at either nil or under 10%.

 

 

Then it may be meaningless in reality. 

[Pen]

8 minutes ago, StellaM said:

 

Five weeks of the study took place in conditions where parents had already withdrawn children from school, and when state governments had advised parents to withdraw, with attendance for 4 of those weeks at either nil or under 10%.

 

 

Maybe it does have relevance. 

The relevant study dates seem to be 5 March to 3 April.    How empty were schools then?  

And is testing and contact tracing improved significantly now from then?

 

Edited April 26, 2020 by Pen

[Pen]

1 minute ago, StellaM said:

 

Ok, then it only includes one week of reduced attendance.  So better?

 

 

Yes. I think better.  

[Ausmumof3]

1 hour ago, StellaM said:

Sorry, am here asking for another favor.

The 'study' on which 'no social distancing needed at schools' in NSW is based has been revealed.

This is an article describing it.

https://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-26/nsw-health-report-tracking-coronavirus-covid-19-cases-in-schools/12185582?pfmredir=sm&sf233211901=1&utm_medium=spredfast&utm_content=sf233211901&utm_campaign=fb_abc_news&utm_source=m.facebook.com&fbclid=IwAR2tPbYZadvHnfq-PrrXMsgcnpsFak0bzlbagXmMKDQNGRsf7wo_PDgveQM

I haven't seen the actual 'study'.

My first thoughts are that it's underpowered. I also know it's not peer reviewed, but I wouldn't neccessarily expect that.

But if someone had the time and patience to read the (short) article for me and give me you impression of how to weight the described study - definitive, suggestive, equivocal, total nonsense, I'd appreciate it very much. 

TIA

curious to know if they were public or private schools mostly.  Private means more likely to have adequate space and hygiene facilities and more likely to be financially able to stay home when sick.

otherwise the study seems to say what they’re saying but we’re dealing with fairly small numbers.

[ElizabethB]

36 minutes ago, square_25 said:

Does anyone know if the US is hiring any contact tracers at the federal level? I know there are now quite a few states starting their own programs (California, Massachusetts, New York, Colorado, I'm sure there are more), but is there any federal involvement? 

The CDC sent out several hundred people to the states, many of them doing contact tracing.  I'd think you could do it over the phone from any location, though, and just get a phone with an area code to mate the state or a phone number that comes up unlisted.  Maybe "sent" also means tele help, I don't know.  In Idaho, there were already local contract tracers in each of the health districts, they said the CDC would augment them.

Edited April 26, 2020 by ElizabethB

[Ausmumof3]

1 hour ago, StellaM said:

 

Individual schools will be shut if there is a case in a school for 24 hours, to enable deep cleaning to take place, and then re-opened.

If there's a spike?

Idk.

Nobody much is talking about what will happen if there's a spike, because 'schools are safe'. 

https://www.rivm.nl/en/novel-coronavirus-covid-19/children-and-covid-19?fbclid=IwAR0n1gcHMiebwCh9ZsLgj3IOIca3hcZan64PGkJGV4XDivmc5_GQCKfG3GE
 

Netherlands have done a similar overview type study with similar findings.  They did antibody testing (which isn’t perfect as discussed up thread) and found it in 2pc if children and 4.2pc of adults.

[ElizabethB]

Here is an NPR interview about the CDC's plan for contact tracing, which states that they have already started in some states, likely Idaho is one of them.  

https://www.npr.org/2020/04/21/840522572/cdc-director-shares-plan-on-contact-tracing

[Ausmumof3]

On other thought on the schools is that there’s probably a difference between high and primary.  Cases seem to be more common with teens and young adults and transmission is more commonly seen than with primary aged.  Plus high school kids often travel further for study etc.

[ElizabethB]

9 minutes ago, square_25 said:

So it looks like they are trying to help, but perhaps don’t have the funding to afford large-scale efforts? 

Maybe. It was not well written or clear, actually.  The numbers depend on the number of cases, though, I'm not sure they really know how many they'll need.  Also, you can do some tracing even when overwhelmed.  At Idaho's highest case loads, they were still contact tracing the most important cases, cases in nursing homes, hospitals, etc.  It is easier in more rural states like Idaho, it may be practically impossible in NY city, but possible in the rest of NY state.  You could spend 100X the money for NY and get little impact, or spend 10X less through the 20 to 30 most rural states and have a good impact there, I would think.  Maybe they don't want to come out and say that politically, though. 

[Ausmumof3]

20 minutes ago, StellaM said:

Oh, the kids in the NSW school study were swabbed by parents at home, apparently?

And for testing purposes, the Health Department is saying schools are high risk environments, along with hospitals, aged care and prisons?

 

 

Seriously?  From what I understand you have to get right in there to test effectively so I would seriously doubt any results found!  If it was the finger prick and antibodies maybe.

[Ausmumof3]

43 minutes ago, StellaM said:

 

I feel like that's so wrong that it can't be right...gonna see if I can find out if that's what happened for sure.

 

I can’t imagine trying to swab my kids.  They would be a complete pain for me and shut up and deal for medical workers!

[Ausmumof3]

@StellaM

https://mobile.twitter.com/ACTINOSProject/status/1254185049101963265

if you’re on Twitter this is a better critique of the Aus schools study 

Andrew Miller the president of the Wa Medical association is not impressed either.  He’s been fairly vocal all the way along 

[Arcadia]

@FaithManorMichigan https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/detroit-health-care-worker-dies-after-being-denied-coronavirus-test-n1192076
“Her daughter said that prior to her mother's death, she was denied a coronavirus test four times by her employer, Beaumont Hospital, Farmington Hills. NBC News reached out to Beaumont multiple times for comment, but did not hear back.”

[Ausmumof3]

WAPO are reporting almost 650 prisoners infected in Michigan

 

[mathnerd]

On 4/21/2020 at 7:33 PM, Arcadia said:

Singapore switch the June school holidays to May. Could Australia do something similar?

“SINGAPORE: The June school holidays will be brought forward to May 5 in light of the extension of the “circuit breaker” period to Jun 1, announced the Ministry of Education (MOE) on Tuesday (Apr 21). 

This will apply to all MOE kindergartens, primary, secondary and pre-university students, including students from special education schools.

 

“While HBL (home-based learning) has been going well, it has been an intense period of hard work and adjustment for parents, students and teachers,” said the ministry in a press release.  

“An early June holiday will give everyone a respite. It also buys us time for a less restrictive school opening in June.”” https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/singapore/june-school-holidays-brought-forward-covid19-gce-exams-12662408

@Arcadia There was a proposal to do this in some bay area schools. At first look, it seems like a great move and it seemed as if someone on the local school boards came up with an original and smart plan since the current school year has been lost and it might be better to use this time as a "Spring Vacation" and pull in the reopening of schools from Fall to Summer. That could help them buy some extra time to make up for the lost instruction. But, apparently, the idea was shot down by PTA's rapidly because parents are concerned about missing out on summer activities like going to the beach, Disneyland and BBQ's. 

[Ausmumof3]

@StellaM

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1254224727335264257.html

hopefully this works - more in the schools study.  Might be helpful if you need to argue your case.

[Ausmumof3]

GlobalTimes:  A cabin hospital in #Suifenhe, NE China's Heilongjiang, was completed on Saturday and can be operational at any time, said a Heilongjiang Health Commission official. The construction began on Monday in the China-Russia border city as imported cases of #COVID19 surged.

 

 

[TracyP]

7 hours ago, CuriousMomof3 said:

 

I can see how there might be federal involvement in coordinating the effort, or funding it, but it seems like the best contact tracers would be people working in their own communities.

I completely agree. Logistically it can be done from anywhere, sure. However, I have heard that the people receiving these calls are often upset and frustrated. Talking to someone local (at least in the same state) is going to be a small step toward soothing them. I am imagining someone who can't pronounce the towns on their screen and isn't familiar with regional chain stores trying to trace contacts. Or someone with an accent calling someone like my stepdad... if at all possible, local seems best.

[TravelingChris]

On 4/24/2020 at 11:00 AM, Jean in Newcastle said:

I have a question on the “do it yourself “ kits. I saw a first person account describe the swab “having to go up so high that it practically hits your brain”. Ie. It’s very uncomfortable if done correctly. I question if people will do them correctly on themselves. 

My dd had two tests- one done correctly that is very uncomfortable== the same as the flu test and when done incorrectly, she believes.

[TCB]

19 hours ago, Pen said:

 

I hope in that case that high pressure is what’s needed.  Not that the doctors who think low pressure is needed and that high pressure is causing harm are correct. 

It may mean high pressure as opposed to CPAP devices. Also if it can deliver high pressure it can almost certainly deliver low pressures too.

[TracyP]

43 minutes ago, square_25 said:

 

Whoa. Is an immigrant now not considered local, if they have an accent? 😕 

Sorry, that's a fair point. I should have thought that through better. I was actually only thinking of a southern accent. This is a good example of me living in my bubble, because we don't have a (new) immigrant population in my community. Ideally any person with this job should be understandable - both in language and an understanding of the local culture - to the people they are calling. I didn't mean to imply you couldn't have an accent and be local.

[Arcadia]

6 hours ago, mathnerd said:

But, apparently, the idea was shot down by PTA's rapidly because parents are concerned about missing out on summer activities like going to the beach, Disneyland and BBQ's. 

Here people are more concerned about academic based summer camps (CTY, Duke, UCB, Stanford, Great Books, etc). At that time, none were cancelled yet. 

[TracyP]

Just now, square_25 said:

 

Oh, yeah, definitely -- they should be understandable and generally a good communicator. And there are definite advantages to locals, thinking about it, in terms of knowing the community and the usual points of contact and the places people are likely to go. 

I do think it would be a good idea to have a centralized database and centralized coordination, given the issue of state lines. (As usual, this feels extra pertinent living in New York, because the borders between NY, New Jersey, and Connecticut are very theoretical ones -- people move across them all the time.) They are going to do this regionally here, but I think it'd be a good idea in general. 

Yes, I think there is definitely a role here for the federal government. I agree with a centralized database. I would also like to see them provide guidance, funding, and training, especially in the states that struggle to implement this themselves. 

[Wildcat]

Could someone who is up on the Vit D supplementation info give me an idea of what dosing of K2 I would also take? Does it depend on the amount of Vit D or is it simply the RDA that I should consider?

I've tried looking for myself and it's so overwhelming that my brain can't seem to process everything and I get things all mixed together. Sigh. 

[Kanin]

Looks like Germany, Italy, France, Spain are all reporting fewer new cases and deaths. Thank goodness. 

[RootAnn]

22 minutes ago, Wildcat said:

Could someone who is up on the Vit D supplementation info give me an idea of what dosing of K2 I would also take?

I have seen wildly different ratios. Like, one study had 400 IU  (10 mcg) of Vit D3 to 45 mg of K2. Another paired the same amount of D3 to 200 mg of K2. Yet a third had participants take 8 mcg of Vit D3 with only 1 mg of K2. 

I just take the combo in my preferred D3/K2 supplement which is 125 mcg (5,000 IU) of D3 to 100 mg of K2. I have no idea if this is not enough K2 or too much. None of my other vitamins have K2 in them, so any other Vitamin K comes from my diet (some days, I might get 50-200 mg & others none). My life is too complicated already, so I just try to remember to take my vitamins everyday.

[Ausmumof3]

https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKCN2270RX?__twitter_impression=true
 

3,300 prison inmates in US tested positive and 96pc are asymptomatic!

[Tree Frog]

I remember reading about breathing issues as the virus takes hold in the body. My dd, a med school student who has been doing nasal and pharyngeal swabs for drive thru testing, has had a dry cough for the last couple of days. Last night, she coughed and said she didn't have shortness of breath, but had a hard time inhaling the next breath. Her description sounded like shortness of breath to me, but she was very specific that it wasn't. She was tested last Saturday before she had any symptoms because in her city everyone can be tested and she was curious about her exposure. They did the nasal swab only and it came back negative. However, this particular test is known for having false negatives. She has been in teletouch with her dr's partner, who is sending her for another test tomorrow. 

Her comments about breathing (not shortness of breath, but similar) rang a bell in my mind about how breathing changes with Covid. Do any of you remember any articles about this? I don't know if it was on this thread or elsewhere, but I'd like to send it to her. In my mind, as a med student, she knows things better than I do, but she's willing to listen to what I tell her. She was unfamiliar with the possible effects of Vit D until I mentioned it to her on Friday, then her dr. told her to start taking it yesterday. (In fact, the things her doctor told her were the same I'd told her to do. She thought that was funny.)

[ElizabethB]

Huge new numbers on vitamin D and deaths rates from an Indonesian study. Study: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3585561#.XqWc-1XHXpM.twitter

Any comments on my graph before I start spreading it on twitter?

 

Edited April 26, 2020 by ElizabethB

[EmseB]

15 minutes ago, wilrunner said:

I remember reading about breathing issues as the virus takes hold in the body. My dd, a med school student who has been doing nasal and pharyngeal swabs for drive thru testing, has had a dry cough for the last couple of days. Last night, she coughed and said she didn't have shortness of breath, but had a hard time inhaling the next breath. Her description sounded like shortness of breath to me, but she was very specific that it wasn't. She was tested last Saturday before she had any symptoms because in her city everyone can be tested and she was curious about her exposure. They did the nasal swab only and it came back negative. However, this particular test is known for having false negatives. She has been in teletouch with her dr's partner, who is sending her for another test tomorrow. 

Her comments about breathing (not shortness of breath, but similar) rang a bell in my mind about how breathing changes with Covid. Do any of you remember any articles about this? I don't know if it was on this thread or elsewhere, but I'd like to send it to her. In my mind, as a med student, she knows things better than I do, but she's willing to listen to what I tell her. She was unfamiliar with the possible effects of Vit D until I mentioned it to her on Friday, then her dr. told her to start taking it yesterday. (In fact, the things her doctor told her were the same I'd told her to do. She thought that was funny.)

She needs to find a pulse ox and check her sats. She will know this but anything less than 90 is ER territory. Normally you'd feel awful or be really struggling with low levels but covid patients are showing up to ERs with crazy low levels but not being obviously in trouble except for faster breathing. 

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/20/opinion/coronavirus-testing-pneumonia.html

[Pen]

11 hours ago, StellaM said:

 

Finding people to drive me. 

My dad said he would, but he's over 70, so idk. It seems an uneccessary risk for him to take.

I was thinking about an e-bike, but the route is not bike ride friendly, and I don't want to decrease public transport risks, only to increase my road accident risk.

Uber, I guess, but it would triple my transport costs.

 

If you have a good system of sanitation, clothing change (or clean coverups for you for while in car), masks... good nutrition, vitamin D😊...    it may not add huge risk to your father if he is a well person age 70 (not lots of other medical problems risks as well). 

[Pen]

7 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

@StellaM

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1254224727335264257.html

hopefully this works - more in the schools study.  Might be helpful if you need to argue your case.

 

I think this plus that you said Health Department lists schools as high risk for testing.  

 

[73349]

Elizabeth, the link doesn't work for me. I'd like to see at a glance the number of people studied.

[ElizabethB]

2 minutes ago, whitehawk said:

Elizabeth, the link doesn't work for me. I'd like to see at a glance the number of people studied.

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3585561#.XqWc-1XHXpM.twitter

[ElizabethB]

15 minutes ago, square_25 said:

 

What does your graph mean? 

ETA: I also can't click on your link. 

I thought it was pretty clear, but I'll include numbers as a footnote at the bottom, the death rates were incredibly worse if your D was low.

[ElizabethB]

Numbers now on graph.