wuhan - coronavirus

[Ausmumof3]

7 minutes ago, square_25 said:

Well, at least it's a serious person, although it's possible he now sees HIV everywhere... I assume this didn't pan out, or we'd have heard a lot more about it. 

https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Caixin/Scientists-slam-Indian-study-that-fueled-coronavirus-rumors
 

some of the criticism outlined here.

I haven’t read too much about it but I get the impression the French guy isn’t so well respected now.  
 

https://amp.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3079443/coronavirus-could-target-immune-system-targeting-protective?__twitter_impression=true

another article in similarities 

[Arcadia]

Washington State https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/22/she-got-a-paycheck-protection-loan-her-employees-hate-her-for-it.html

“She got a forgivable loan. Her employees hate her for it.

Black-Lewis saw the $177,000 and $43,800 loans, one for each of the spas she owns in Washington state, as a lifeline she could use for payroll and other business expenses.

She’d halted pay for the 35 employees — including herself — at Oasis Medspa & Salon, in Woodinville, and Amai Day Spa, in Bothell, in mid-March, when nonessential businesses in Washington closed due to the coronavirus pandemic.

When Black-Lewis convened a virtual employee meeting to explain her good fortune, she expected jubilation and relief that paychecks would resume in full even though the staff — primarily hourly employees — couldn’t work.

She got a different reaction.  

“It was a firestorm of hatred about the situation,” Black-Lewis said.

The animosity is an unintended consequence of the $2.2 trillion coronavirus relief package enacted last month.

The law, the CARES Act, offered $349 billion in loans for small businesses struggling as a result of Covid-19. Banks, backstopped by the federal government, can fully forgive the loans under certain conditions.

Among them, the bulk of funds must go toward payroll, salaries must remain intact and employee head count must not decrease. Businesses have until June 30 to rehire laid-off or furloughed workers.

Black-Lewis was trying to meet these rules, especially after her bank reiterated she must continue to pay workers for loan forgiveness.

The anger came from employees who’d determined they’d make more money by collecting unemployment benefits than their normal paychecks.

“It’s a windfall they see coming,” Black-Lewis said of unemployment. “In their mind, I took it away.”

“I couldn’t believe it,” she added. “On what planet am I competing with unemployment?”

...

Unemployment benefits

The coronavirus relief law increased weekly jobless benefits for recipients, boosted the duration of benefits and extended pay to previously ineligible groups of workers like the self-employed.

Specifically, the new law adds a flat $600 a week to the typical weekly benefits paid by one’s state.

Those traditional benefits, which vary widely between states, replaced about 40% of one’s prior wages, according to a national average cited by the House Ways and Means Committee.

The measure’s improved $600-a-week payments, which run through July, aim to boost that wage replacement rate to 100% for the average worker.

But some, especially lower-wage workers, can come out ahead. Lawmakers were aware of the dynamic, yet felt the formula’s simplicity would get money out to people faster.

In Mississippi, a less-generous state when it comes to unemployment benefits, full-time workers making less than $21 an hour ($43,680 a year) would make more money on unemployment than from their job, according to an EconoFact analysis authored by economists Patricia Anderson and Phillip Levine.

In California, a “medium benefits” state, the breakeven is around $26 per hour, or about $54,000 a year.

And in Washington, a generous state, it’s $30 an hour, or about $62,000.

Pay among Black-Lewis’ employees — massage therapists, hair stylists and aestheticians — ranges from minimum wage ($13.50 an hour in Washington) up to about $60 per hour. Many work between 24 and 32 hours a week.

It wasn’t just those on the lower end of the pay scale who were upset — even ones who would stand to make more money from their regular paychecks sided with lower earners, Black-Lewis said.  

“They were pissed I’d take this opportunity away from them to make more for my own selfish greed to pay rent,” she said.”

[Arcadia]

37 minutes ago, square_25 said:

I'm sure that's true. Especially given that with no spike of deaths, there are no psychological factors keeping people indoors. 

SF doesn't get that warm in the summer, though. So it's even more vulnerable to summer issues than other places... 

People here swarm libraries and malls when it’s hot. If libraries and malls stay close, the open spaces would have more people out with their picnic mat and camp chairs, soccer balls ⚽️ and kites.

[Arcadia]

7 minutes ago, square_25 said:

But the Penninsula DOES get hot, lol. San Francisco really doesn't. When I visited Berkeley and Stanford to pick a grad school, they told me Stanford had better weather and I though they were just kidding... I figured they weren't soon enough! It's a bunch colder in the East Bay and San Francisco than it is where you are. 

Berkeley being up the hill was a consideration for us. Less escape routes than Stanford’s location.  Now California is prepping for their fire season. 

[Pen]

Oregon State University is trying to do a community spread study—it is in an area with 5 confirmed cases and 2 or 3 deaths, iirc.     

 

“

Team-based rapid assessment of community-level coronavirus epidemics, or TRACE for short.

They're providing Corvallis residents with coronavirus test kits.

We checked in to find out more about the goals of this effort. 

The unique door-to-door program is among the first in the nation that OSU researchers hope will fill a big COVID-19 information gap.

That gap is to find out the percentage of people in a community that are carrying the virus, but showing no symptoms.

Professor Jeff Bethel at the OSU College of Public Health says it's those people that are unwittingly spreading the virus.

Get a better handle on that number, and Bethel says it can lead to better coronavirus control measures.

"It allows to stop the spread of disease," Bethel says. "If we know the people who are around people that are infected, we can put in public health measures such as quarantine."

Students are working the next four weekends to hand out nasal test kits for people to use themselves.

960 samples will be collected from randomly selected neighborhoods.   “

 

[Arcadia]

Hong Kong https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asia/covid-19-coronavirus-hong-kong-school-exams-12672982

“HONG KONG: Thousands of Hong Kong students were among the first in the world to take their final secondary school exams on Friday (Apr 24), all wearing face masks and having their temperatures checked after being stuck at home for months due to the COVID-19 outbreak.

The Diploma of Secondary Education examination was given the go-ahead with a four-week delay as the number of new COVID-19 cases has fallen, though social distancing measures remain in place throughout the city.

...

Students were asked to arrive early for temperature checks, while face masks were mandatory, hand sanitizer was available and desks were about 2m apart.

Students were also required to present a health declaration form.

Some candidates were still unsure about whether the exams should have been held while the city was still reporting new cases.

"It’s like we are risking our life for a seat in university and we don’t even know if we are going to succeed,” said Rita Hung, 18, said before walking in.

More than 3,000 students took the exams in the first sitting on Friday. In all, some 52,000 candidates will do so over the next month.”

[Murphy101]

1 hour ago, Arcadia said:

Washington State https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/22/she-got-a-paycheck-protection-loan-her-employees-hate-her-for-it.html

“She got a forgivable loan. Her employees hate her for it.

Black-Lewis saw the $177,000 and $43,800 loans, one for each of the spas she owns in Washington state, as a lifeline she could use for payroll and other business expenses.

She’d halted pay for the 35 employees — including herself — at Oasis Medspa & Salon, in Woodinville, and Amai Day Spa, in Bothell, in mid-March, when nonessential businesses in Washington closed due to the coronavirus pandemic.

When Black-Lewis convened a virtual employee meeting to explain her good fortune, she expected jubilation and relief that paychecks would resume in full even though the staff — primarily hourly employees — couldn’t work.

She got a different reaction.  

“It was a firestorm of hatred about the situation,” Black-Lewis said.

The animosity is an unintended consequence of the $2.2 trillion coronavirus relief package enacted last month.

The law, the CARES Act, offered $349 billion in loans for small businesses struggling as a result of Covid-19. Banks, backstopped by the federal government, can fully forgive the loans under certain conditions.

Among them, the bulk of funds must go toward payroll, salaries must remain intact and employee head count must not decrease. Businesses have until June 30 to rehire laid-off or furloughed workers.

Black-Lewis was trying to meet these rules, especially after her bank reiterated she must continue to pay workers for loan forgiveness.

The anger came from employees who’d determined they’d make more money by collecting unemployment benefits than their normal paychecks.

“It’s a windfall they see coming,” Black-Lewis said of unemployment. “In their mind, I took it away.”

“I couldn’t believe it,” she added. “On what planet am I competing with unemployment?”

...

Unemployment benefits

The coronavirus relief law increased weekly jobless benefits for recipients, boosted the duration of benefits and extended pay to previously ineligible groups of workers like the self-employed.

Specifically, the new law adds a flat $600 a week to the typical weekly benefits paid by one’s state.

Those traditional benefits, which vary widely between states, replaced about 40% of one’s prior wages, according to a national average cited by the House Ways and Means Committee.

The measure’s improved $600-a-week payments, which run through July, aim to boost that wage replacement rate to 100% for the average worker.

But some, especially lower-wage workers, can come out ahead. Lawmakers were aware of the dynamic, yet felt the formula’s simplicity would get money out to people faster.

In Mississippi, a less-generous state when it comes to unemployment benefits, full-time workers making less than $21 an hour ($43,680 a year) would make more money on unemployment than from their job, according to an EconoFact analysis authored by economists Patricia Anderson and Phillip Levine.

In California, a “medium benefits” state, the breakeven is around $26 per hour, or about $54,000 a year.

And in Washington, a generous state, it’s $30 an hour, or about $62,000.

Pay among Black-Lewis’ employees — massage therapists, hair stylists and aestheticians — ranges from minimum wage ($13.50 an hour in Washington) up to about $60 per hour. Many work between 24 and 32 hours a week.

It wasn’t just those on the lower end of the pay scale who were upset — even ones who would stand to make more money from their regular paychecks sided with lower earners, Black-Lewis said.  

“They were pissed I’d take this opportunity away from them to make more for my own selfish greed to pay rent,” she said.”

I don’t think it’s that they are pissed she wants to pay rent. I think it’s that their expenses have often gone up and they see the only positive as being able to finally maybe break even.

This is not the case in Oklahoma. Here you can only get up to 100% of what you were making on unemployment. Previously it was 60% of previous income if you had been there at least 1 year.

Not that it matters bc Oklahoma isn’t paying hardly anything to anyone new on the unemployment lists right now bc they can’t handle the volume of enrollment on the outdated system with the low staff they’ve always had. 
 

ETA: how scary is it to make less than 45k in California and be accused of seeking a windfall on unemployment to get “up to” below that? Isn’t that crazy low for HCOL Cali?  So basicly it sounds like those employees were getting dirt wages to begin with and are likely rightly thrilled for the first time in their life to get above that from any source?

Edited April 24, 2020 by Murphy101

[Arcadia]

6 minutes ago, Murphy101 said:

 

This is not the case in Oklahoma. Here you can only get up to 100% of what you were making on unemployment. Previously it was 60% of previous income if you had been there at least 1 year.

The extra $600/week unemployment top up is factored in for the break even analysis. 

[vonfirmath]

33 minutes ago, Murphy101 said:

I don’t think it’s that they are pissed she wants to pay rent. I think it’s that their expenses have often gone up and they see the only positive as being able to finally maybe break even.

This is not the case in Oklahoma. Here you can only get up to 100% of what you were making on unemployment. Previously it was 60% of previous income if you had been there at least 1 year.

Not that it matters bc Oklahoma isn’t paying hardly anything to anyone new on the unemployment lists right now bc they can’t handle the volume of enrollment on the outdated system with the low staff they’ve always had. 
 

ETA: how scary is it to make less than 45k in California and be accused of seeking a windfall on unemployment to get “up to” below that? Isn’t that crazy low for HCOL Cali?  So basicly it sounds like those employees were getting dirt wages to begin with and are likely rightly thrilled for the first time in their life to get above that from any source?

 

This is not California. It is Washington-state.

 

[The Governess]

3 hours ago, square_25 said:

I really wish people would stop with the symmetric models. You don't have to do much other than to look at the actual death graphs with the naked eye to see that these are distributions with a "fat tail" -- that is, with more weight at the end than the beginning:

That's about what you'd expect from the modeling (exponential growth until social distancing, then a slooow drop), but it's harder to do curve-fitting in that situation, apparently (we all want to use normal curves for that!), so... people just don't bother to acknowledge it. Frankly, it's kind of irresponsible. 

 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/

Yes!  Italy’s deaths per day graph is also a good example - an obvious peak but not followed by a sharp decline at all. I wish someone would use this shape as a model for US deaths and see what kind of numbers that gives us. 

[Pen]

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/04/covid-19-vaccine-protects-monkeys-new-coronavirus-chinese-biotech-reports

China based information so I am not sure reliable, but apparently there’s a vaccine working for monkeys . (Poor monkeys.) 

 

 

[Jean in Newcastle]

1 hour ago, Pen said:

Oregon State University is trying to do a community spread study—it is in an area with 5 confirmed cases and 2 or 3 deaths, iirc.     

 

“

Team-based rapid assessment of community-level coronavirus epidemics, or TRACE for short.

They're providing Corvallis residents with coronavirus test kits.

We checked in to find out more about the goals of this effort. 

The unique door-to-door program is among the first in the nation that OSU researchers hope will fill a big COVID-19 information gap.

That gap is to find out the percentage of people in a community that are carrying the virus, but showing no symptoms.

Professor Jeff Bethel at the OSU College of Public Health says it's those people that are unwittingly spreading the virus.

Get a better handle on that number, and Bethel says it can lead to better coronavirus control measures.

"It allows to stop the spread of disease," Bethel says. "If we know the people who are around people that are infected, we can put in public health measures such as quarantine."

Students are working the next four weekends to hand out nasal test kits for people to use themselves.

960 samples will be collected from randomly selected neighborhoods.   “

 

I have a question on the “do it yourself “ kits. I saw a first person account describe the swab “having to go up so high that it practically hits your brain”. Ie. It’s very uncomfortable if done correctly. I question if people will do them correctly on themselves. 

[ElizabethB]

Just now, Jean in Newcastle said:

I have a question on the “do it yourself “ kits. I saw a first person account describe the swab “having to go up so high that it practically hits your brain”. Ie. It’s very uncomfortable if done correctly. I question if people will do them correctly on themselves. 

They changed the protocol--the first ones had to be like that, now they either know you can get sample from less invasive swabbing or have more sensitive methods that can get sample from a less invasive swabbing, I'm not sure which.

[Pen]

8 minutes ago, Jean in Newcastle said:

I have a question on the “do it yourself “ kits. I saw a first person account describe the swab “having to go up so high that it practically hits your brain”. Ie. It’s very uncomfortable if done correctly. I question if people will do them correctly on themselves. 

 

The original type testing required (and I think still does require) the super deep nasopharyngeal swabbing. I gather that some of the newer developed tests such as Abbot don’t.  It was supposed to be an advantage not only in speed but in comfort and safety and less PPE needed. 

[Arcadia]

@mathnerd I am waiting for my turn for bloodwork and I can already see the reduction in force compared to last week.

https://abc7news.com/health/bay-area-nurses-trying-to-answer-call-for-covid-19-service-finding-they-arent-needed/6125428/
“SAN FRANCISCO (KGO) -- Bay Area nurses, trying to answer urgent calls for their help during the pandemic, are finding in many cases that their services just aren't needed. In fact, some hospitals have instituted hiring freezes and there are worries of future layoffs.

...

But the reality of trying to answer the call has been frustrating for RN's like Angela Williams. Layed off from her job in cosmetic surgery, the 29-year-old has a bachelors degree and was president of her 2018 nursing class, but can't find work in a hospital.

"I actually put in over 300 applications in the Bay Area," said Williams. "It's hard being a registered nurse, unemployed during a pandemic. It kind of feels like being a firefighter, the house is on fire and I'm watching Netflix."
...

But with so many empty beds, hospitals just aren't hiring nurses. Right now, it's all about re-deploying.

"We were planning for the very worst. We were planning for the New York scenario," said Michelle Lopes, Senior Vice President, Chief Nurse Executive for John Muir Health. "Early on, we did reach out to retired nurses. We started planning for how do we bring new graduate nurses, and nursing students into our work force, but we've just found we haven't had the need. We've had the resources within our own teams to manage the volume of patients we're seeing."”

[Pen]

7 minutes ago, Arcadia said:

@mathnerd I am waiting for my turn for bloodwork and I can already see the reduction in force compared to last week.

https://abc7news.com/health/bay-area-nurses-trying-to-answer-call-for-covid-19-service-finding-they-arent-needed/6125428/
“SAN FRANCISCO (KGO) -- Bay Area nurses, trying to answer urgent calls for their help during the pandemic, are finding in many cases that their services just aren't needed. In fact, some hospitals have instituted hiring freezes and there are worries of future layoffs.

...

But the reality of trying to answer the call has been frustrating for RN's like Angela Williams. Layed off from her job in cosmetic surgery, the 29-year-old has a bachelors degree and was president of her 2018 nursing class, but can't find work in a hospital.

"I actually put in over 300 applications in the Bay Area," said Williams. "It's hard being a registered nurse, unemployed during a pandemic. It kind of feels like being a firefighter, the house is on fire and I'm watching Netflix."
...

But with so many empty beds, hospitals just aren't hiring nurses. Right now, it's all about re-deploying.

"We were planning for the very worst. We were planning for the New York scenario," said Michelle Lopes, Senior Vice President, Chief Nurse Executive for John Muir Health. "Early on, we did reach out to retired nurses. We started planning for how do we bring new graduate nurses, and nursing students into our work force, but we've just found we haven't had the need. We've had the resources within our own teams to manage the volume of patients we're seeing."”

 

I hope that can be understood as at least so far a success, not a failure.  

And I hope things don’t suddenly open up (even if unofficially happening) to where there still ends up being a New York or northern Italy type crisis. 

 

[Arcadia]

3 minutes ago, Pen said:

 

I hope that can be understood as at least so far a success, not a failure.  

I don’t think people waiting for services would feel that way, or nurses told to use their leave (paid or unpaid). My blood draw usually takes 15mins once I get into the building. I have been waiting an hour and it’s still not my turn.

The nurses at the screening area are complaining so loudly about the president that you can hear them a few doors away. 

[Corraleno]

4 hours ago, square_25 said:

I really wish people would stop with the symmetric models. You don't have to do much other than to look at the actual death graphs with the naked eye to see that these are distributions with a "fat tail" -- that is, with more weight at the end than the beginning:

That's about what you'd expect from the modeling (exponential growth until social distancing, then a slooow drop), but it's harder to do curve-fitting in that situation, apparently (we all want to use normal curves for that!), so... people just don't bother to acknowledge it. Frankly, it's kind of irresponsible. 

 

How do people keep producing these symmetrical graphs and not look at them and think "geez, that can't possibly be right..."???

I remember reading a blog post by a guy who was involved in one of the models and he said something about how you have to "trust the numbers" and not interfere because you could skew it to get what you want. But when your models don't remotely match the real world, that tells you there's something in your model that shouldn't be trusted, not that you should stand back and publish it anyway! It's so bizarre to me that these models, like the IHME, are constantly being adjusted because their predictions are always off, so they tweak them to match the data, and then within a few days they're off again. How can you look at a model that shows CV19 magically disappearing in June and not think "that makes no sense"???  Here is the US graph of daily deaths overlaid on Italy's. If the curve was symmetrical, Italy would be done by now! Instead they're still posting 500+ deaths per day. This is so infuriating and irresponsible. 

[Tree Frog]

3 hours ago, square_25 said:

No. No, I have not. That sounds like pure conspiracy theory. 

That's what I thought, which is why I went to look for it.

[ElizabethB]

I'm tracking prisons where they have done mass testing by latitude and time outside, I'll make a graph sorted by latitude and write up a LinkedIn Article if I get enough data.  I'll start a new thread for people to add to the data.  My spreadsheet also has a block for the news article where it is mentioned, but that takes up a lot of room.  I found these two by google searches, but people might have more data from local articles about heir local areas.  I can only use the data if they test everyone or almost everyone.

[Pen]

children

 

https://youtu.be/L9EaRFQ_pYI

 

Don’t know if already posted: John Campbell review of New England Journal of Medicine article about children and CV19 

[SoCal_Bear]

I thought this captured very well the tension going on right now and how leaders as well as the regular person is trying to process.

https://news.yahoo.com/cold-calculations-americas-leaders-reopening-122102505.html

 

Edited April 24, 2020 by calbear

[Kanin]

3 hours ago, Pen said:

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/04/covid-19-vaccine-protects-monkeys-new-coronavirus-chinese-biotech-reports

China based information so I am not sure reliable, but apparently there’s a vaccine working for monkeys . (Poor monkeys.) 

 

 

Yay!

[SKL]

2 hours ago, square_25 said:

Continuing to post the Swedish graphs. Here’s the one from yesterday:

And here’s the one from today:

Assuming a 0.5% IFR, since the population of Stockholm is about a million, if 70 percent got infected, then 3500 people would die. They are up to a bit more than a thousand deaths in Stockholm, so I’d guess they have a ways to go before they are anywhere herd immunity even in the hardest hit area...

 

2 hours ago, square_25 said:

Continuing to post the Swedish graphs. Here’s the one from yesterday:

And here’s the one from today:

Assuming a 0.5% IFR, since the population of Stockholm is about a million, if 70 percent got infected, then 3500 people would die. They are up to a bit more than a thousand deaths in Stockholm, so I’d guess they have a ways to go before they are anywhere herd immunity even in the hardest hit area...

I don't agree with a standard fatality rate where communities have had a chance to plan and react.  Like, making sure the most vulnerable people are protected while letting the most healthy get exposed would result in a lower death rate.  If that were the case, then Sweden might be closer to herd immunity than you think.

[mathnerd]

6 hours ago, Arcadia said:

@mathnerd Bay Area, California https://sanfrancisco.cbslocal.com/2020/04/23/coronavirus-update-warmer-bay-area-weather-prompting-people-to-seek-relief-from-cabin-fever/

SAN FRANCISCO (CBS SF) — After five weeks into the shelter-in-place order, it seems cabin fever is kicking in and more people are heading out.  Whether you’re walking or driving, it’s not hard to see that people are out and about in the Bay Area, and most people would argue traffic has gone up in recent days.

...

There are no official numbers to back up people’s observations. But some people say they’re starting to encounter traffic in their communities again.

“Last week, week before, there was virtually no traffic encountered when you go out. And certainly today, there was probably a 50% increase in traffic,” said Mandel.

At Golden Gate Park, we noticed a lot of sunbathers, joggers, and cyclists.

“You can see today, the numbers are definitely increasing,” said Stern. “I’d probably say there’s 10 times more people here now than there were a month ago.”

“We are heading into better weather. So we are seeing with better weather, you’re going to see, you know, more people craving a little bit of outdoor time,” said San Francisco Recreation and Parks General Manager Phil Ginsburg.

...

On the freeway, we’re noticed afternoon traffic leaving from San Francisco to Oakland on the Bay Bridge Thursday, a sight we haven’t seen in a few weeks.

The Metropolitan Transportation Commission monitors all Bay Area bridges except for the Golden Gate Bridge. Their numbers don’t show an upward trend in the last month, suggesting while regional traffic is still stable, local traffic might be increasing.

“It’s getting nicer now and I think people just want to do what they can to get outside and release some of the energy,” said Stern.

Aside from nice weather, some believe as the health order drags out longer, the stay at home order is starting to wear out some people.”

@Arcadia I can now confirm that this is true! Today morning I ventured out shopping after 4 weeks of not leaving home. I was out 9:00-11:00 AM and had to beat traffic on 280, 880 and our expressways. Last time I went out, there was nobody on the freeways and expressways. Today, mine was the 4th or 5th car stopped at red lights and there was a steady trickle of cars on every road.

There were lines outside each store I went to. The lines were marked with plastic cones to know where the 6 ft distancing was supposed to be, but nobody seemed to care about that inside the stores. Inside, people were crisscrossing each other's paths to grab things off shelves and getting within a foot of others, store employees hugging, high-fiving and patting each other on the backs (how is that social distancing??), lots of shoppers browsing in electronics, clothes, makeup aisles and buying non-essential supplies like home decor. Everyone was wearing a mask, though. There were employees walking around wearing "keep 6 ft distance" badges and using megaphones to shout about social distancing to customers frequently. TP was back on shelves and there was plenty of 1 store brand and 2 branded varieties.

It seems that Bay Area people are trying to bring back some semblance of normalcy because we have been in lockdown long enough to keep the ICU's from getting clogged. 

Edited April 24, 2020 by mathnerd

[mathnerd]

8 minutes ago, square_25 said:

That seems a bit worrisome, no? 😞

What I cannot understand is where all those cars on the freeways going to. We are still under SIP and we can only go out for essential supplies. 

Edited April 24, 2020 by mathnerd

[Arcadia]

10 minutes ago, mathnerd said:

@Arcadia I can now confirm that this is true! Today morning I ventured out shopping after 4 weeks of not leaving home. I was out 9:00-11:00 AM and had to beat traffic on 280, 880 and our expressways. Last time I went out, there was nobody on the freeways and expressways. Today, mine was the 4th or 5th car stopped at red lights and there was a steady trickle of cars on every road.

...

It seems that Bay Area people are trying to bring back some semblance of normalcy because we have been in lockdown long enough to keep the ICU's from getting clogged. 

I left home at 8:30am and reached back at 1pm. Had my blood draw at Los Gatos and then did my grocery run. Traffic was bad, like typical Bay Area commute bad. Trader Joe’s Pruneyard was very well stock and many were just buying a few items. No one had a cart full. Costco Kifer parking was so full and the line so long when we reached that we went to Costco Coleman instead. Costco Coleman shelves were well stocked and people were buying less than what would be the usual before March. We bought roti-chapati 🙂

Either people are eating through their stockpiles now that supermarkets are well stocked or they got tired of staying home and go to the grocers every few days just to “see other humans”. I won’t be surprised because DS15 felt so much better after going with us to Safeway. He felt like he hasn’t seen any strangers for a long time and going to Safeway confirms to him that there is still “civilization”. 

[ElizabethB]

24 minutes ago, square_25 said:

Here's an interesting observation that recently occurred to me. If you look at the dates of the school closures and lockdowns, they are remarkably uniform all across the US -- most happened within 3 days or so. That means there wasn't much variation in regional response: instead, there was a stampede of all the governors doing largely the same thing. 

Looking at the data now, though, it's clear that a more nuanced response may very well have been good, since the rates in different places are so very different, and it doesn't make sense for a place with 1% of citizens infected to behave in the same way as a place that has 20%. 

So as it turned out, leaving things to local governments did NOT result in a truly nuanced response. In my opinion, what would have done so is a) more information and b) more coordination. 

That seems a bit counterintuitive, I know. It just occurred to me. 

There was a big difference in Washington state and Idaho state by local school.  My nephew in Washington was in a district that closed weeks after the rest of the Seattle area, a suburb that used to be rural but is now less so with the expansion of the Seattle area goo into one big sprawl.  I don't remember for sure, but I don't think his school closed until the whole state went on lockdown, but most of the other schools in the greater Seattle area were closed at that point.  My brother said the traffic was great, even better than when we were kids!! (Seattle area traffic has gotten horrible the last few years.)

In Idaho, Blaine County, the ski county, shut down schools and a lot of other things weeks before the rest of the state.  The other schools in Idaho varied, most were closed by the time the whole state closed down.  

Governor lockdown was preceded by individual school lockdowns in many other states, as well.  

[Arcadia]

24 minutes ago, mathnerd said:

What I cannot understand is where all those cars on the freeways going to. We are still under SIP and we can only go out for essential supplies. 

Some are probably just going on car rides. DS14 used to need car rides in his car seat to fall asleep as a toddler. Some might be bored at home and going to farmers market. There are quite a few opened on Friday morning.

Our county is on page 49 to 51 https://www.cdfa.ca.gov/is/docs/CurrentMrktsCounty.pdf

[SKL]

37 minutes ago, square_25 said:

Here's an interesting observation that recently occurred to me. If you look at the dates of the school closures and lockdowns, they are remarkably uniform all across the US -- most happened within 3 days or so. That means there wasn't much variation in regional response: instead, there was a stampede of all the governors doing largely the same thing. 

Looking at the data now, though, it's clear that a more nuanced response may very well have been good, since the rates in different places are so very different, and it doesn't make sense for a place with 1% of citizens infected to behave in the same way as a place that has 20%. 

So as it turned out, leaving things to local governments did NOT result in a truly nuanced response. In my opinion, what would have done so is a) more information and b) more coordination. 

That seems a bit counterintuitive, I know. It just occurred to me. 

The local folks started getting pressure the more states shut down.

The shut down timing was decided based on very different reasons in different states.  If you look at it from the time of the first "community spread" case, you will see a big difference in response from state to state.  NYC was getting pressure from a lot of people before they shut down.  I remember the mayor saying he didn't want to do it because it would stop kids from getting their free lunches.

I don't agree that this means the feds should have decided each state's shutdown date, though.

[ElizabethB]

2 minutes ago, square_25 said:

You're right -- the local school districts weren't coordinated at all and that pattern looks much chaotic and random. It's not clear it looks any more rational or responsive to facts on the ground, though. 

In Idaho, the school districts that closed a week or two before the rest were in Blaine County, the ski county.  Things in Idaho tracked with spread in each area.    

[Pen]

1 hour ago, square_25 said:

Here's an interesting observation that recently occurred to me. If you look at the dates of the school closures and lockdowns, they are remarkably uniform all across the US -- most happened within 3 days or so. That means there wasn't much variation in regional response: instead, there was a stampede of all the governors doing largely the same thing. 

 

I am not sure about this.  

“Locked down” has meant different things in different places, and perhaps nowhere in USA is as locked down as all of NZ was. 

I am not sure that all was happening “within 3 days or so” unless the “or so” is pretty broad, especially pretty broad in terms of pandemic viral time rather than geologic time. 

As well, in terms of this pandemic just “3 days” was roughly the doubling time iirc when USA started having official closures.  

Princeton University closed ~ March 17. Columbia U shortly after iirc. The writing was clearly on the wall at that point that NJ and NY were in trouble.  

California as a state shut down about 2 days afterwards—some counties and other areas already had done so. 

When were New York and New Jersey public schools ordered closed? And when did they give their SIP orders?  

My impression was that in viral terms it was not a stampede to closings by and large, but slow and reluctant.  That was certainly the case for my state as well where I was writing letters and it was staying open longer than it should have and probably was only just very lucky not to be in much worse shape. 

Virus speed makes every day and every hour potentially exponentially important. 

 

 

 

[Arcadia]

11 minutes ago, square_25 said:

I really hope this doesn't wind up spiking the Bay Area cases. 

If vitamin D helps, all the lining up to get into stores at 29degCelsius sunshine should help reduce cases, compared to staying at home (since my area is mostly apartments or townhomes without backyards). 

[Pen]

8 minutes ago, square_25 said:

 

I do think it depends on what measures you look at. But if you look at, say, school closures, they almost all happened around March 18th, give or take a few days. I understand that in virus terms, a few days makes a difference -- that wasn't my point. My point is that it's not clear that local control led to a lot of nuanced decisions. 

Here's the map showing when schools closed in each state: 

https://www.edweek.org/ew/section/multimedia/map-coronavirus-and-school-closures.html

As you can see, at the state level, there are precious few differences. And it's not clear to me that this is the RIGHT pattern. I'm not even sure what the right pattern would have been (I think it would have involved having had more information due to have run many, many more tests and some randomized tests at that), I'm merely making an observation that struck me as curious. 

 

Ok. Fair enough.

 I still think the difference between California ‘s Stay Home on March 19 and New York’s On March 22 was a very significant time gap in viral terms.

I don’t know that it would have helped hugely if NY had followed Princeton and Columbia leads and issued Stay Home on March 17 or 18, and been first with that, but it might have helped.   

 

Looking at it differently, I think by the time Mew York shut down it had more cases in just Nyc than Italy had had total when Italy went into significant shut down . 

 

[Pen]

11 minutes ago, Arcadia said:

If vitamin D helps, all the lining up to get into stores at 29degCelsius sunshine should help reduce cases, compared to staying at home (since my area is mostly apartments or townhomes without backyards). 

 

If people are getting sun on significant amounts of skin at right time of day for D synthesis.   Standing position is never ideal for sun for Vitamin D purposes.   Standing up,  sun tends to get a little of face and shoulders tops—which may be shirt covered.   

Some pictures I saw from China showed having windows wide open for air and lying in front of open window to sun as much as possible. 

[Pen]

@Arcadia

Cities And Vitamin D Production Potential

Here are date ranges for a few cities and states showing when the sun is not at a high enough angle in the sky to produce Vitamin D at any time during the day:

Los Angeles, California and Atlanta, Georgia: Both are at about 34 degrees latitude north of the equator. You can’t make Vitamin D in these cities or anywhere north of them from the beginning of October until the beginning of March.

Utah, Colorado, Kansas, Missouri, Kentucky, and Virginia, for example, are all entirely above the 35th parallel (35 degrees latitude), and therefore making Vitamin D in these states during this period is also not possible.

New York City: You can’t produce Vitamin D in NYC from the end of September to the end of March.

Madrid, Spain: At about the same latitude as New York City, Vitamin D production isn’t possible from the end of September to the end of March.

Seattle, Washington: It’s not possible to produce Vitamin D outdoors from the beginning of September to the second week of April.

Miami, Florida: You can’t make Vitamin D from the end of October to the middle of February.

London, England: For more than 8 months of the year Vitamin D production is not possible: from the middle of August until late April.

Stockholm, Sweden: For 10 months of the year it isn’t possible to produce Vitamin D in the sun, with late May to late July the only months where it is potentially possible.

Anchorage, Alaska: For more than 10 months of the year Vitamin D production isn’t possible. During less than two month of the whole year, from late May to the middle of July, is the only time when Vitamin D production is possible.

Here are the times of day on the longest day of the year in the northern hemisphere (usually June 20: the first day of summer) in a few cities showing when Vitamin D production is possible:

Los Angeles, CA and Atlanta, GA: On the summer solstice (the first day of summer), Vitamin D production is possible from about 10 AM to 4 PM.

New York City: Vitamin D production is possible on the first day of summer during about the same time frame as Los Angeles and Atlanta: from about 10 AM to 4 PM.

Seattle, WA: Vitamin D production is possible on June 20 from about 10:30 AM to 4 PM.

Now you’ll notice these hours when Vitamin D production is possible on the longest day of the year also happen to be the hours when most people are inside working. And for the days the rest of the year when Vitamin D production is possible, it will still only be possible at closer to the middle of the day. For instance, in New York City on May 1, Vitamin D production is only possible from about 10:30 AM to 3:15 PM. This underscores the fact that, even in the summer, if people who live some distance from the equator don’t get sun exposure during the middle part of the day and/or don’t take in enough Vitamin D via diet and supplements, they can still be deficient.

[ElizabethB]

2 minutes ago, Happymomof1 said:

I just do not understand this virus at all.  So,  I know Texas isn't testing, but that wouldn't affect deaths.  And we have 2 deaths per 100,000 as opposed to 110 in New York.  Florida has 5 deaths per 100,000.

https://www.cnn.com/interactive/2020/health/coronavirus-us-maps-and-cases/

Than you have the news of the Miami-Dade that about 165,000 have the antibodies...

https://www.local10.com/news/local/2020/04/24/miami-dade-mayor-um-researchers-discuss-initial-findings-of-covid-19-study/

So are different parts of the country getting different strains?  Why is it so deadly in certain areas but not in others?  

Why does it cause lung failure in many, but heart attacks in some, clotting disorders in others, etc.  

This virus makes no sense at all.  

Vitamin D could explain many of the differences, TX, FL, CA low death rates, higher vitamin D likely in these states, especially CA and FL.  Vitamin D also explains many of the racial differences:

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/vitamin-d-coronavirus-gap-liz-brown/

Edited April 24, 2020 by ElizabethB

[SKL]

I wonder if one reason for not testing more broadly is that some authorities do believe in early herd immunity & don't/didn't want to slow that down ....

[ElizabethB]

1 minute ago, SKL said:

I wonder if one reason for not testing more broadly is that some authorities do believe in early herd immunity & don't/didn't want to slow that down ....

Possible, and besides nefarious conspiracy theories that could explain that, also positively a belief that the next wave could be more deadly and so it could be better to have more immunity overall with the first wave.

[Pen]

Vitamin D from sun calculation 

https://vitamindwiki.com/UV+and+Vitamin+D+calculators

 

[ElizabethB]

20 minutes ago, Happymomof1 said:

Florida only has 5 deaths per 100,000 yet they had that HUGE amount of positives antibodies in Miami-Dade.  If they truly had that many, then why not many deaths?

 

18 minutes ago, square_25 said:

OK, this is is fascinating. Looks like Miami-Dade county got that 6% of the county is positive. They've had 279 deaths. Their population is about 2.7 million, so 6 percent of that is 

2,700,000*0.06 = 162,000. 

That gives an IFR of 279/162,000 = 0.17 %

Less than expected, like the California studies... and it turns out, another self-selected study: 

https://www.miamiherald.com/news/coronavirus/article241750556.html

That is, they called random people to recruit them. Fascinating. It looks like the studies that are getting low IFRs are the self-selected ones. 

Vitamin D should be higher in both Florida and California, southern latitudes where people often run around wearing little clothing.  Also, my graph on my LinkedIn article shows hugely smaller death differences in FL and CA for black Americans; 75% of black Americans are D deficient vs. 40% all Americans, I would expect that more people of all races in FL and CA have better vitamin D levels. https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/vitamin-d-coronavirus-gap-liz-brown/

[ElizabethB]

Here is why Vitamin D may help:

Studies have shown that vitamin D can word off general acute respiratory tract infections, although no studies have been made specifically for Coronavirus.

https://www.mcmasteroptimalaging.org/blog/detail/blog/2019/05/14/can-vitamin-d-ward-off-acute-respiratory-tract-infections

https://www.bmj.com/content/356/bmj.i6583

Dr. Erik Hermstad on twitter, @EHermstad, tweeted, “Does an adequate vitamin D level protect against some of the cytokine storm we're seeing with COVID-19? I don't know. I just haven't seen any vitamin D levels in the 40's or higher yet on ANY patient I've admitted with it.” (Recommended range 30 - 80) 

Scottish government recommends people take vitamin D to protect against Coronavirus, especially homebound older people because e of possibility it will help since it helps with other respiratory illnesses. https://www.express.co.uk/life-style/health/1267489/coronavirus-update-news-uk-symptoms-scottish-government-guidance-vitamin-D

“Previous work by geneticist Rick Kittles at the University of Chicago suggests that upwards of 75 percent of African-Americans are deficient in vitamin D. Kittles says that African-Americans living north of the 37th parallel — just about anyplace north of central California, Texas, Tennessee or North Carolina — will have difficulty through most of the year absorbing enough sunlight to make vitamin D, because of the low angle of the rays reaching the Earth's surface.”

https://www.livescience.com/20910-vitamind-black-americans-cancer-disparity.html

In contrast, 42% of Americans overall are deficient in Vitamin D.

https://www.cantonmercy.org/healthchat/42-percent-of-americans-are-vitamin-d-deficient/

While there is no direct evidence, vitamin D may reduce Coronavirus severity. 

https://www.healthline.com/nutrition/vitamin-d-coronavirus

Vitamin D production depends on latitude and sun angle.  This graph shows how increases in Coronavirus death rates by Latitude, with more southern Latitudes on the left.  California and Florida, southern latitudes where people are often outside with sufficient skin exposure to make vitamin D production possible, both have low Coronavirus death rates for black Americans by percent of population.  

Currently, in most of the United States, you can now make vitamin D from the sun, here is how to safely and effectively increase your vitamin D production.  As the article states,

“Studies estimate that darker-skinned people may need anywhere from 30 minutes to three hours longer to get sufficient vitamin D, compared to lighter-skinned people. This is a major reason why darker-skinned people have a higher risk of deficiency” 

https://www.healthline.com/nutrition/vitamin-d-from-sun#skin-color

Edited April 24, 2020 by ElizabethB

[Arcadia]

37 minutes ago, square_25 said:

Well, then you spend time in a store. We'll see, I guess. 

People in my county do have reasons to feel optimistic. If you ignore the number of cases due to testing discrepancies, you could still see the deaths and hospitalization rate compare to population is much lower here.

It was hot here in February and March. I am scared of cold and I was sweating in a light T-shirt and jeans. My kids played tennis regularly in T-shirts and shorts.

 

Santa Clara County: 

Population estimate 1,927,852

Cases: 2018 (0.0010/person)

Hospitalized currently: 176 (0.000091/person)

Deaths: 98 (0.0000508/person)

New York City:

Population estimate: 8,398,748

Cases: 146,139 (0.01740/pax)

Hospitalized*:37,995 (0.0045239/person)

Confirmed deaths:10,746 (0.001279/person)

Probable deaths:5,102

*Estimated.

[Ausmumof3]

1 minute ago, Arcadia said:

People in my county do have reasons to feel optimistic. If you ignore the number of cases due to testing discrepancies, you could still see the deaths and hospitalization rate compare to population is much lower here.

It was hot here in February and March. I am scared of cold and I was sweating in a light T-shirt and jeans. My kids played tennis regularly in T-shirts and shorts.

 

Santa Clara County: 

Population estimate 1,927,852

Cases: 2018 (0.0010/person)

Hospitalized currently: 176 (0.000091/person)

Deaths: 98 (0.0000508/person)

New York City:

Population estimate: 8,398,748

Cases: 146,139 (0.01740/pax)

Hospitalized*:37,995 (0.0045239/person)

Confirmed deaths:10,746 (0.001279/person)

Probable deaths:5,102

*Estimated.

I suspect the weather thing is somewhat important.  There’s lots of talk from the leaders about our amazing Public Health Service and lower rates but to be honest there’s been a few mistakes and we’ve just been lucky so far.  I suspect weather plays a role in that.  

[Ausmumof3]

Worldometer is showing 37,000 new cases for the US today.  BNO haven’t updated for a bit and I haven’t been following worldometer to know their reporting times etc but that seems like a bigger jump than previous days?  I thought it was going up by around 20,000 per days.

[maize]

Lowe's parking lot was PACKED when I drove past today. 

[ElizabethB]

New vitamin D study!

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3571484#.XqNy-JjBiB0.twitter

Mean serum 25(OH)D level was 23.8 ng/ml. Serum 25(OH)D level of cases with mild outcome was 31.2 ng/ml, 27.4 ng/ml for ordinary, 21.2 ng/ml for severe, and 17.1 ng/ml for critical. Serum 25(OH)D levels were statistically significant among clinical outcomes (p<0.001). A total of 55 (25.9%) cases had normal Vitamin D status, majority of which (85.5%) were identified mild. A total of 80 (37.7%) cases had insufficient Vitamin D status, majority of which (43.8%) were ordinary. Cases identified as Vitamin D-deficient were 77 (36.3%), majority of which were severe (40.3%). Vitamin D status is significantly associated with clinical outcomes (p<0.001). 

[ElizabethB]

8 minutes ago, square_25 said:

OK, I've looked into Vitamin D for flu. Conclusion? Indeterminate. Like many, many, many such interventions, the effect isn't strong enough for consistent results. So some studies find an effect and others don't. 

I tend to distrust medical literature, to be honest, unless the effect is big enough to be seen with the naked eye. I'm dubious of 95% confidence intervals, lol. 

This is all to say that it's possible that Vitamin D is having an effect, and possible that it's not. As far as I can tell, there isn't much correlation between the sunniness of a country and how hard it was hit. Italy and Spain are some of the hardest-hit countries in Europe, and they aren't exactly known for being grim, cloudy places. The Scandinavian countries have much more of a problem with sun, and they've been relatively spared. 

From what I'm seeing, the density of a country is more predictive of outcomes than anything else so far. I'm willing to be convinced, of course, but I'm not seeing it. 

Italy while sunny has low vitamin D levels in its population.  I'm not sure about Spain's D levels.  

[Arcadia]

2 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

I suspect the weather thing is somewhat important.  There’s lots of talk from the leaders about our amazing Public Health Service and lower rates but to be honest there’s been a few mistakes and we’ve just been lucky so far.  I suspect weather plays a role in that.  

@Pen@ElizabethB

If you look at the foreign workers in construction in Singapore, they are mostly from Bangladesh. The infected numbers are high now that testing has rapidly expanded on workers dormitories but their fatality rate has been thankfully low. Bangladesh construction workers in Singapore are about as dark skin as African Americans (not intending to offend anyone).

[ElizabethB]

Here are D levels, higher in Norway than Italy!  High in Portugal but low in Spain in Italy.  Did Portugal fare well?  You can also get D from fish and cod liver oil, maybe the Nordic countries are getting good D from fish?

 An older European population-based study in older persons, the Seneca study, showed a mean serum 25(OH)D of 26 nmol/L in Spain, 39 nmol/L in Portugal, 28 nmol/L in Italy and 25 nmol/L in Greece while it was around 45 nmol/L in the Nordic countries (31).

https://eje.bioscientifica.com/view/journals/eje/180/4/EJE-18-0736.xml