Enrollment Cliff ???

[mlktwins]

I've been hearing/reading about this since we toured William and Mary in August. They brought it up in their info session and says it makes colleges, including them, shake in their boots. Do you think there will be any impact to students graduating in 2027? Costs of schools going up even more? So many of the schools we toured were spending big money on renovations and new buildings/dorms, etc. Will some schools start closing that soon or will it take until 2030 to start seeing impacts? How about for advanced degrees if they go that route? Not trying to stir the pot. Just curious and I know many of you are probably more in the loop about this than I am. Both of mine are going to public universities (one bigger, one small). Will it be more private colleges affected or publics too?

https://www.bestcolleges.com/news/analysis/looming-enrollment-cliff-poses-serious-threat-to-colleges/#:~:text=What Is the Enrollment Cliff,when most kids start college.

[Arcadia]

“How does that translate into enrollment figures? During that four-year span, colleges will lose approximately 576,000 students.“

California and other populous states can easily make up the shortfall. Maybe less competition but insignificantly less.

My local area is unlikely to be affected since the privates (Stanford & Santa Clara U) are overly subscribed and the public universities especially my nearest state university is impacted for all majors. 
 

UC released their application numbers and the trend isn’t worrisome compared to undergrad admission which was 125,597 for Fall 2022. (https://edsource.org/2022/university-of-california-accepts-record-number-of-in-state-students-but-only-at-some-campuses/676545)

https://www.universityofcalifornia.edu/press-room/university-california-announces-application-totals-fall-2023-admission

“For fall 2023 admission, the University saw a 2.2 percent decrease (-5,411 applications) in total applications from the fall 2022 admissions cycle, where the University received 251,179 total applications (210,840 freshmen and 40,339 transfer). The largest decrease in applications was from nonresident (out-of-state and international) freshmen and transfer applicants (-4,632).

…

The University of California also saw reduced applications numbers from California Community College (CCC) students, in line with enrollment declines at community colleges across the country during the COVID-19 pandemic. Applications from this population decreased by 3.7 percent (-1,141) from fall 2022’s total (30,936), decreasing to 29,795 in 2023.”

[Lori D.]

I know of three smaller LACs that are scrambling to stay alive financially, and if they do not raise needed funds, there is a good chance they will be shutting down within the next 2-3 years.

Universities have definitely shifted away from their philosophy/theology roots from several hundred years ago -- and moved to a "job training" education focus in the past 60 years. With sky-rocketed college costs/debt, and now the recent explosion of alternative ways of gaining that "job training" education focus, coupled with declining enrollment and employment shifts... Well, it's not surprising that smaller LACs may end up closing their doors, and larger universities may have to find new ways of staying relevant and competitive.

 

[EmilyGF]

Given the recent news about King's College NYC and Trinity International University, yes, colleges are going to go under.

Plenty will be fine. But many won't.

Emily 

[Sneezyone]

10 hours ago, mlktwins said:

I've been hearing/reading about this since we toured William and Mary in August. They brought it up in their info session and says it makes colleges, including them, shake in their boots. Do you think there will be any impact to students graduating in 2027? Costs of schools going up even more? So many of the schools we toured were spending big money on renovations and new buildings/dorms, etc. Will some schools start closing that soon or will it take until 2030 to start seeing impacts? How about for advanced degrees if they go that route? Not trying to stir the pot. Just curious and I know many of you are probably more in the loop about this than I am. Both of mine are going to public universities (one bigger, one small). Will it be more private colleges affected or publics too?

https://www.bestcolleges.com/news/analysis/looming-enrollment-cliff-poses-serious-threat-to-colleges/#:~:text=What Is the Enrollment Cliff,when most kids start college.

I think public schools in less populous/attractive states might be pressed. Smaller private schools with limited endowments. Schools that don’t have a niche/draw will suffer too. To me, this represents a tremendous opportunity for kids willing and able to expand their horizons.

Edited March 20, 2023 by Sneezyone

[Roadrunner]

I looked at the financial health numbers that are published about colleges and those with a D rating are certainly going to suffer. I wouldn’t apply to those with D or C rating because of that uncertainty. 
I think the trend is everybody wants to go to the same top 150 schools and those would do well. UC overall numbers might have dipped slightly and yet UCLA acceptance rate went dow again to 8.6%. 

[Eos]

7 hours ago, Lori D. said:

I know of three smaller LACs that are scrambling to stay alive financially, and if they do not raise needed funds, there is a good chance they will be shutting down within the next 2-3 years.

Universities have definitely shifted away from their philosophy/theology roots from several hundred years ago -- and moved to a "job training" education focus in the past 60 years. With sky-rocketed college costs/debt, and now the recent explosion of alternative ways of gaining that "job training" education focus, coupled with declining enrollment and employment shifts... Well, it's not surprising that smaller LACs may end up closing their doors, and larger universities may have to find new ways of staying relevant and competitive.

 

I know this is true but its overall effect on our society is something I mourn.

I'm thinking about dd26 who is currently on her second master's and wants to also do a PhD.  She loves research and expects to teach at the college level for her day job.  This option will become even more unlikely, according to this article.

[regentrude]

In the relentless competition for paying customers, colleges will (continue to) do three things:

1. Increase possible customer base. That means admitting students who are less qualified.

2. Improve retention by dumbing down the rigor of classes; coaxing and prodding students who do not have the drives to succeed; pressuring faculty into allowing late assignments, makeup exams, and providing a level of handholding that does not treat the students as adults.

3. Reduce their operating cost by offering more canned asynchronous online classes, hiring adjuncts, increasing teaching loads. Fewer faculty will teach more student credit hours.

The result will be a less rigorous education - except at a few elite institutions who can afford to uphold academic standards.
I am a professor at a public U; we already see all of the above.

Edited March 20, 2023 by regentrude

[8filltheheart]

@regentrude Unfortunately, that means that as the top of the pyramid collapses downward, so does everything below it.  CC's will be dumbed down even further and high school students will be treated incapable of learning what should be historically standard content.  It will be cross board decline, worse than it already is.

[kokotg]

I agree that it's the smaller colleges that are already struggling that will have the hardest time. I do wonder how this will be different from the 90s when demographics also weren't kind to colleges. It was MUCH easier to get in to top colleges then than it is now. For those predicting sliding standards, are you seeing things as vastly different at highly selective colleges than everywhere else? Because from my perspective, kids trying to get into selective colleges have to do much more now to accomplish that (and I'm talking not just top 20 colleges, but a lot of state flagships) than they did when I was applying. In 1993 I got in to my state flagship with the top automatic academic scholarship with a 31 ACT and 2 AP classes. Today a 31 is the bottom of their middle 50% admitted and the middle 50% of DE/AP classes is 7-12. My 1993 self almost certainly wouldn't get in, much less be in the honors program with a scholarship. So what I'm seeing right now in helping my kids navigate this world and watching my husband teach high school math is that there's a LOT of pressure on students to push themselves to take sort of crazy academic schedules (and make sure they have impressive ECs on top of that!) and that pressure being reduced a bit wouldn't be a bad thing. But perhaps I'm just too immersed in a world where every kid seems to want to go to Georgia Tech or UGA.

Edited March 20, 2023 by kokotg

[Roadrunner]

It’s an interesting list

https://www.forbes.com/sites/emmawhitford/2022/06/09/the-strongest-and-weakest-colleges-in-america---behind-forbes-2022-financial-grades/?sh=4619f66effad

[Lori D.]

6 hours ago, Eos said:

I know this is true but its overall effect on our society is something I mourn.

I'm thinking about dd26 who is currently on her second master's and wants to also do a PhD.  She loves research and expects to teach at the college level for her day job.  This option will become even more unlikely, according to this article.

I mourn too. Which is why I posted this. Our culture loses SO much when we strip away the Fine Arts and Humanities and become mere cogs in the job industry.

And I had not thought of that -- research will also start to become unavailable, which is thinking and development in the theoretical areas that will cut our culture off from growing and learning in the Sciences. 

That, along with other not-good changes in our culture all starts to sound like sliding closer to a second Dark Age, IMO. 😭

[Insertcreativenamehere]

I previously worked in higher education at a mid-size private liberal arts university. That was 13 years ago and we were talking about this way back then. This particular institution doesn't have a large endowment and so is very tuition-dependent. Since I left, they have done a great deal of building to attract students, and their facilities are admittedly top-notch. In fact, I still use their fitness center and indoor track. However, enrollment is falling, they are overleveraged financially, and have even come close to not making payroll on a few occasions. There have been several rounds of layoffs. They are taking some risky steps to increase enrollment that could potentially alienate certain demographics. My husband is convinced they are going to end up closing, but because they have very well-regarded programs in career-focused areas like nursing, engineering, etc., I think they will end up becoming more focused on career preparation rather than the liberal arts. They've already dropped several majors that don't clearly lead to particular careers. 

ETA: In looking at the Forbes list, they have a D grade. 

 

 

Edited March 20, 2023 by Insertcreativenamehere

[Lori D.]

This article traces the history of the SAT.

To sum up the article: when the first test was given almost 100 years ago in 1926, the goal was to increase # of student attending colleges by identifying those high school students who would do well in college.

By the 1960s, so many students were taking the test that some colleges were becoming selective in admissions, and paid test prep -- "gaming the test" -- became a thing.

During the 1970s-2000s, revisions were made to the test at intervals, especially to emphasize the reading section and to add the written essay. The essay was dropped in 2016.

Starting in 2017, SAT began experimenting with adding an "Adversity Score" to identify the socio-economic status of a student and their high school for colleges to use when admitting based on diversity.

In the last 2-3 years, many colleges have moved to a test-optional admission policy and base admit on the basis of GPA and class standing.
 

4 hours ago, kokotg said:

...I do wonder how this will be different from the 90s when demographics also weren't kind to colleges. It was MUCH easier to get in to top colleges then than it is now. For those predicting sliding standards, are you seeing things as vastly different at highly selective colleges than everywhere else? Because from my perspective, kids trying to get into selective colleges have to do much more now to accomplish that (and I'm talking not just top 20 colleges, but a lot of state flagships) than they did when I was applying. In 1993 I got in to my state flagship with the top automatic academic scholarship with a 31 ACT and 2 AP classes. Today a 31 is the bottom of their middle 50% admitted and the middle 50% of DE/AP classes is 7-12. My 1993 self almost certainly wouldn't get in, much less be in the honors program with a scholarship. So what I'm seeing right now in helping my kids navigate this world and watching my husband teach high school math is that there's a LOT of pressure on students to push themselves to take sort of crazy academic schedules (and make sure they have impressive ECs on top of that!) and that pressure being reduced a bit wouldn't be a bad thing. But perhaps I'm just too immersed in a world where every kid seems to want to go to Georgia Tech or UGA.

Well, the SAT test of the early 1990s when you took was very different from the SAT that students take today (a number of big revisions to the test between then and now), so I don't think that's fair to yourself to compare. 😉

And it really wasn't until about the early/mid 1990s that the job market was so full that a college degree started to be required as a way of weeding out applicants for jobs -- which in turn put more pressure on people to go to college to get that degree to jump the job hoop. And by that time you were already admitted to college, so not part of the stampede to be admitted.

As far as the future goes... If current trends continue, we may see an across the board decline in college attendance.

Factors and trends I see:
- escalating college costs/college debt --> fewer students attending
- job market needing workers --> fewer employees requiring degrees
- some jobs now accepting certifications in lieu of degrees --> people getting those certificates online or at CCs rather than degrees at colleges
- future increase in jobs as more and more baby boomers (biggest population "bubble") retire, leaving holes --> employers less picky about who can fill their job openings

Also -- we're already starting to experience a scarcity in skilled trades because everyone went for a college degree. Which means skilled trades may become the hot new higher paying jobs, and those jobs are educated/trained for via CCs, trade schools, and apprenticeships -- not a university.
So maybe the start of the bursting of the college bubble -- not just the costs, and the debt, but also the numbers of people attending college...

Just  a few random musings... 😉
 

Edited March 20, 2023 by Lori D.

[kokotg]

15 minutes ago, Lori D. said:

 

Well, the SAT test of the early 1990s when you took was very different from the SAT that students take today (a number of big revisions to the test between then and now), so I don't think that's fair to yourself to compare. 😉

 

That's why I used my ACT score 😉 It makes my former self look better than my SAT and doesn't seem to have changed over the years the way SAT scores have. As far as the pressure kids today are under, though, there's no comparison whatsoever between my 2 AP classes (which was a pretty standard load for a good student back then) and the 7-12 the middle 50% have today. That means 25% of admitted students at UGA are taking MORE than 12 AP/DE classes! ETA: and again, this isn't kids who won't be happy if they're not an Ivy, this is the state flagship that used to be very easy to get into if you were a halfway decent student. 

Edited March 20, 2023 by kokotg

[Frances]

8 hours ago, Eos said:

I know this is true but its overall effect on our society is something I mourn.

I'm thinking about dd26 who is currently on her second master's and wants to also do a PhD.  She loves research and expects to teach at the college level for her day job.  This option will become even more unlikely, according to this article.

The number of tenure track academic jobs has been decreasing for decades. Even top schools use lots of adjunct instructors now. The competition for tenure track jobs will only get more intense. My advice for those wanting an academic career is to attend a top university for grad school and don’t acquire any debt, only choose a fully funded program. Because most pursuing a professorship will end up piecing together temporary, adjunct positions with no benefits and no security.

[Lori D.]

4 hours ago, kokotg said:

That's why I used my ACT score 😉 It makes my former self look better than my SAT and doesn't seem to have changed over the years the way SAT scores have. As far as the pressure kids today are under, though, there's no comparison whatsoever between my 2 AP classes (which was a pretty standard load for a good student back then) and the 7-12 the middle 50% have today. That means 25% of admitted students at UGA are taking MORE than 12 AP/DE classes! 

Yes, you're right that the major revisions tend to happen farther apart, and that the ACT has had fewer overall major revisions over its history. But BOTH the ACT and the SAT make regular minor changes -- they both test out new sections and swap things around almost every year. By the time you add up those minor changes over 30 years, the ACT test you took really IS significantly different from the one given today. 😉 

re: increasing # of AP tests taken by students for competitive admissions
Just curious -- if everyone is taking that many APs, and amount of scholarship $$ being handed out by UGA is unlikely to have increased, does that mean those students are getting admitted, but not getting much in the way of scholarship $$, even with all of their APs?

Is there a reason why these students you are seeing can't apply to other schools (in state or out of state) where their stats would make them a "big fish in a small pond" for big $$ awards? Or willingness to apply to schools in other states with automatic aid based on SAT/ACT test scores?

BUT, I get it -- it may be more competitive in your state to be able to be admitted, so that students do have to APs. That's just not my experience here. I'm not seeing students in my state take tons -- if ANY -- APs. And they are all getting admitted to our state's universities with good-sized tuition scholarships and offers to participate in the honors program. Two of our state's universities just miss being in the top 100 schools of the U.S. News annual ranking of colleges. So, not shabby. 😉

BTW -- as an interesting side note: U.S. News provides a ranking for only the top 10% of the 4,000+ colleges and universities in the U.S. So even a ranking in the 200s or 300s means that a school falls in the "top 10%" of schools.

I honestly do think that in the next 5-10 years, we're going to see a lot of changes in how many people go to college, what colleges end up closing their doors, and what colleges that remain open will offer -- plus changes in post-high school education and training, as well as the job market as a whole.

Edited March 20, 2023 by Lori D.

[kokotg]

53 minutes ago, Lori D. said:

re: increasing # of AP tests taken by students for competitive admissions
Just curious -- if everyone is taking that many APs, and amount of scholarship $$ being handed out by UGA is unlikely to have increased, does that mean those students are getting admitted, but not getting much in the way of scholarship $$, even with all of their APs?

Is there a reason why these students you are seeing can't apply to other schools (in state or out of state) where their stats would make them a "big fish in a small pond" for big $$ awards? Or willingness to apply to schools in other states with automatic aid based on SAT/ACT test scores?
 

Georgia is a bit of a special case in that the lottery funded HOPE scholarship covers in-state tuition for a lot of students (there's more nuance than that, in that there are cut-offs according to grades and test scores, but for practical purposes pretty much anyone accepted to UGA or Tech is going to have their full tuition covered if they're coming from Georgia). But, yes, for OOS students, I think it's certainly true that the students who would have been accepted with big $$$ 20 years ago might get in but not be offered anything today. I mean, that's true at most selective colleges (I remember a quote from an admissions person at Vanderbilt from a year or two ago saying that every kid they're admitting now would have been a Cornelius Vanderbilt Scholar a few years ago)--I'm pointing to UGA just to show that it's not just the top 20 that are seeing this: a state flagship that used to serve pretty average (or slightly but not hugely above average) students from Georgia is no longer accessible to those same students. And, yes, of course they can go to less selective colleges...but a lot of them don't want to. What I see is that very often STEM kids want Tech and lots and lots of kids want UGA for all sorts of reasons (football, college town, not staying close to home, and, yeah, some of them even because they think the academics are stronger 😉 ). Not everyone can have what they want of course, and that's okay. I'm just saying that I see lots and lots of kids putting enormous pressure on themselves to get into these schools, and I don't know that a demographic shift that takes a bit of that pressure off will be all bad. For struggling small LACs...it will be bad. For the A/B kid who wants a certain college experience...not so bad. 

Incidentally--I had one kid apply and be accepted to UGA and another apply and be accepted to the music program at a much less competitive in-state University. They were very, very similar academically (and both very strong), and neither was offered much scholarship money above the HOPE (music kid was offered a small music scholarship). Our OOP costs would have been very similar at the state flagship and at the much less selective school without a national reputation. (And both went elsewhere, to schools that meet demonstrated need, where our OOP costs are lower than either public school, even with the free tuition at the publics).

Edited March 20, 2023 by kokotg

[daijobu]

Another source of revenue for colleges in need is international students.  These guys are paying full freight.    

[Eos]

2 hours ago, Frances said:

The number of tenure track academic jobs has been decreasing for decades. Even top schools use lots of adjunct instructors now. The competition for tenure track jobs will only get more intense. My advice for those wanting an academic career is to attend a top university for grad school and don’t acquire any debt, only choose a fully funded program. Because most pursuing a professorship will end up piecing together temporary, adjunct positions with no benefits and no security.

She's been super fortunate to have not paid anything for grad school so far. I can't even imagine the professorship landscape ten years from now.

[SeaConquest]

34 minutes ago, kokotg said:

I'm just saying that I see lots and lots of kids putting enormous pressure on themselves to get into these schools, and I don't know that a demographic shift that takes a bit of that pressure off will be all bad. For struggling small LACs...it will be bad. For the A/B kid who wants a certain college experience...not so bad. 

I have the same perspective, here in California. When CSUs like San Diego State (which used to be on Playboy's top party school list) now reject incredible kids, it blows my mind. I can only pray that these kids begin to see an easing of the admissions nightmare here.  

[kokotg]

20 minutes ago, SeaConquest said:

I have the same perspective, here in California. When CSUs like San Diego State (which used to be on Playboy's top party school list) now reject incredible kids, it blows my mind. I can only pray that these kids begin to see an easing of the admissions nightmare here.  

And maybe our experiences/observations are reflecting the trends they mention in the article--that the issues are going to be dependent on where population is growing and shrinking, and it's the midwest and northeast that will feel the effects most strongly. 

[Roadrunner]

 

3 hours ago, daijobu said:

Another source of revenue for colleges in need is international students.  These guys are paying full freight.    

it’s not that simple with international kids either. People pay full price at some schools (maybe top 100), but those aren’t the ones suffering financially. I can’t imagine most internationals paying full price for colleges that accept almost everybody. We have lots of friends internationally who apply to American schools and those schools most in need are the ones giving most merit. 

[Sneezyone]

7 hours ago, Roadrunner said:

It’s an interesting list

https://www.forbes.com/sites/emmawhitford/2022/06/09/the-strongest-and-weakest-colleges-in-america---behind-forbes-2022-financial-grades/?sh=4619f66effad

A lot of the colleges on that list are the niche schools I was talking about. LACs aren’t going away and there’s tremendous support for them even with reasonably high standards. We just won’t be able to sustain as many of them.

[Sneezyone]

2 hours ago, kokotg said:

And maybe our experiences/observations are reflecting the trends they mention in the article--that the issues are going to be dependent on where population is growing and shrinking, and it's the midwest and northeast that will feel the effects most strongly. 

Which is also why I see this as an opportunity for kids to get a real bargain in the NE and Midwest. That doesn’t help those who want to remain in state or close to home but for those who can/will travel, there’s going to be a lot of opportunity at some great schools with a lot of merit money attached.

[kokotg]

1 minute ago, Sneezyone said:

Which is also why I see this as an opportunity for kids to get a real bargain in the NE and Midwest. That doesn’t help those who want to remain in state or close to home but for those who can/will travel, there’s going to be a lot of opportunity at some great schools with a lot of merit money attached.

I think you already see LACs in the midwest using merit money in ways coastal schools haven't had to yet. Just based on where my first kid applied--schools like Grinnell, Macalester, Oberlin use merit money to appeal to kids who would otherwise be going to Bowdoin, Vassar, et. al. that only do need based aid. 

[Sneezyone]

13 minutes ago, kokotg said:

I think you already see LACs in the midwest using merit money in ways coastal schools haven't had to yet. Just based on where my first kid applied--schools like Grinnell, Macalester, Oberlin use merit money to appeal to kids who would otherwise be going to Bowdoin, Vassar, et. al. that only do need based aid. 

Yes, and need based aid isn’t what those who will continue to send their kids to college will need/want/seek. To me it’s like any other investment market. The people who really should take advantage of the long term bennies/value won’t. They’ll be lured away by plentiful jobs and high pay in the short term. Meanwhile the haves will be cleaning up with (relatively inexpensive and high value) degrees from solid schools.

Edited March 20, 2023 by Sneezyone

[Frances]

3 hours ago, Roadrunner said:

 

it’s not that simple with international kids either. People pay full price at some schools (maybe top 100), but those aren’t the ones suffering financially. I can’t imagine most internationals paying full price for colleges that accept almost everybody. We have lots of friends internationally who apply to American schools and those schools most in need are the ones giving most merit. 

There are certainly schools beyond the top 100 where plenty of international students are paying full freight. Now maybe not at the small LACs and regional private universities that are in most danger of closing, but there are plenty of wealthy international parents who want their children to go to college in the US, but the kids don’t have the stats to get into elite schools. 

[Sneezyone]

17 minutes ago, Frances said:

There are certainly schools beyond the top 100 where plenty of international students are paying full freight. Now maybe not at the small LACs and regional private universities that are in most danger of closing, but there are plenty of wealthy international parents who want their children to go to college in the US, but the kids don’t have the stats to get into elite schools. 

UALR has a significant black, French-speaking population. From which countries I do not know. I suspect that is b/c of Heifer Intl. and the Clinton Center. Again…niche.

Edited March 21, 2023 by Sneezyone

[gstharr]

Looks like college sports will go also go away: https://www.aol.com/st-francis-brooklyn-cuts-college-211635111.html

[Miss Tick]

5 hours ago, gstharr said:

Looks like college sports will go also go away: https://www.aol.com/st-francis-brooklyn-cuts-college-211635111.html

I could get behind this movement, but I can't imagine it will be as widespread as it should be. Of course I would rather that be done proactively and not in response to a crisis.

[Lecka]

I used to live in a “why are there SO many international students here” place.

 

It turned out they recruited heavily in Asia.  
 

It also turned out the extremely safe environment and very low living expenses were selling points.  
 

They also just had a good, supportive program, from my understanding.

 

We moved away before Covid but I do think I heard they counted on a lot of revenue from international students. 

[Frances]

23 hours ago, Lecka said:

I used to live in a “why are there SO many international students here” place.

 

It turned out they recruited heavily in Asia.  
 

It also turned out the extremely safe environment and very low living expenses were selling points.  
 

They also just had a good, supportive program, from my understanding.

 

We moved away before Covid but I do think I heard they counted on a lot of revenue from international students. 

Yes, this is definitely a thing at all types and levels of colleges. 

Edited March 22, 2023 by Frances

[SeaConquest]

20 hours ago, Sneezyone said:

Which is also why I see this as an opportunity for kids to get a real bargain in the NE and Midwest. That doesn’t help those who want to remain in state or close to home but for those who can/will travel, there’s going to be a lot of opportunity at some great schools with a lot of merit money attached.

I know midwestern colleges have no control over the political environment, but as a CA parent, there's no way I would allow my boys to go to college in a state that didn't respect reproductive choice, no matter how much money a decent school threw at them.  

Edited March 21, 2023 by SeaConquest

[Frances]

51 minutes ago, SeaConquest said:

I know midwestern colleges have no control over the political environment, but as a CA parent, there's no way I would allow my boys to go to college in a state that didn't respect reproductive choice, no matter how much money a decent school threw at them.  

Well there’s still Minnesota, Illinois, and maybe CO, depending on how you define Midwest states. I’m not trying to change your mind, but in the Midwest it is pretty easy to quickly travel from one state to another.

[Eos]

1 hour ago, SeaConquest said:

I know midwestern colleges have no control over the political environment, but as a CA parent, there's no way I would allow my boys to go to college in a state that didn't respect reproductive choice, no matter how much money a decent school threw at them.  

Yes.  This feels very stressful to me as dd is heading to Ohio. 

[Sneezyone]

4 hours ago, SeaConquest said:

I know midwestern colleges have no control over the political environment, but as a CA parent, there's no way I would allow my boys to go to college in a state that didn't respect reproductive choice, no matter how much money a decent school threw at them.  

Fortunately, there’s also the northeast. DS has Michigan and Illinois on his list as well.

Edited March 22, 2023 by Sneezyone

[catz]

On 3/21/2023 at 3:09 PM, SeaConquest said:

I know midwestern colleges have no control over the political environment, but as a CA parent, there's no way I would allow my boys to go to college in a state that didn't respect reproductive choice, no matter how much money a decent school threw at them.  

Please don't stereotype midwestern states.  There are several that respect reproductive choices.   Our state legislature put into written law abortion rights this year and just put in laws to protect reproductive travelers and providers this week.

Not trying to convince you to look here for college.  Many teens lose it with the weather anyway.  I just think people should be a bit more discerning and not stereotype.  

My own midwestern kid was very picky this ways.  But researched indivudal states.  She was concerned both with LGBTQ and reproductive issues. 

[SeaConquest]

33 minutes ago, catz said:

Please don't stereotype midwestern states.  There are several that respect reproductive choices.   Our state legislature put into written law abortion rights this year and just put in laws to protect reproductive travelers and providers this week.

Not trying to convince you to look here for college.  Many teens lose it with the weather anyway.  I just think people should be a bit more discerning and not stereotype.  

My own midwestern kid was very picky this ways.  But researched indivudal states.  She was concerned both with LGBTQ and reproductive issues. 

I'm not stereotyping the entire midwest as anti-choice. I'm saying that -- since we are discussing midwest/northeast schools re enrollment declines -- I wouldn't send my kid to a school *in a state that did not respect reproductive choice.* That statement obviously goes well beyond the midwest at the moment. The economic implications of Dobbs will be far-reaching and not necessarily in ways that are immediately apparent.

I was just reading about how Dobbs is negatively impacting recruitment of OBGYNs to rural hospitals, such that it is likely to exacerbate our already abysmal maternal/infant mortality rates in the US (e.g., rural hospitals shuttering maternity wards/women traveling greater distances to give birth/lack of prenatal care, etc).  So yeah, this decision is going to be reverberating throughout our economy in disparate ways over the coming years.   

Edited March 22, 2023 by SeaConquest

[catz]

32 minutes ago, SeaConquest said:

I was just reading about how Dobbs is negatively impacting recruitment of OBGYNs to rural hospitals, such that it is likely to exacerbate our already abysmal maternal/infant mortality rates in the US (e.g., rural hospitals shuttering maternity wards/women traveling greater distances to give birth/lack of prenatal care, etc).  So yeah, this decision is going to be reverberating throughout our economy in disparate ways over the coming years.   

Don't disagree with this at all.  I live down the street from a PP seeing plenty of tourists.  

[Lori D.]

Could this digression into a completely different topic (individual state abortion laws) go into its own thread on the Chat Board, so as to not derail the OP topic, which is specifically college-related, about declining enrollment and the future effects that might have on colleges/universities.  

Thanks!

Edited March 22, 2023 by Lori D.

[SeaConquest]

17 hours ago, Lori D. said:

Could this digression into a completely different topic (individual state abortion laws) go into its own thread on the Chat Board, so as to not derail the OP topic, which is specifically college-related, about declining enrollment and the future effects that might have on colleges/universities.  

Thanks!

Hi Lori,

I was discussing Dobbs in the context of its potential impact on declining college/university enrollment. I understand that it's not everyone's fav topic, and the impact to any specific college/university may be marginal, but it's another factor at play for many families and may impact enrollment on the aggregate level.  

Edited March 23, 2023 by SeaConquest

[...]

My local CC is having struggles with enrollment. It has a new President, and he brought in new professors, largely from more urban areas. Well, as it turns out, nobody here wants to take "woke" classes. For example, World Religions uses a textbook where each chapter/religion has a tie-in section with environmentalism and the final chapter is about environmentalism as a new religion (It's called Experiencing the World's Religions: Traditions, Challenge, and Change by Michael Molloy). Well, World Religions is a required course for RNs and Pharmacy Techs. Nobody wants to take it, so guess what? Those programs at the CC are tanking, but the LPN and Pharmacy Tech programs at the trade school are booming. 

I brought this up because I think whether or not local schools are affected really depends on their ability and willingness to meet the needs and desires of their areas. The schools that fail and thrive in Florida will look different than those that do so in California, and it may be that neither resemble what works or doesn't in Utah or Nebraska or Virginia. 

[elegantlion]

This is also being discussed at my university. Retiring professors in my department have not been replaced. 

My local university is an open enrollment regional state liberal arts university. Just prior to Covid, they declared financial exigency and their cuts eliminated about 2/3rd of the faculty (tenured & non-tenured), cut majors across the board, eliminating majors such as English, history, political science among others, and all of the foreign languages. I could get on my soapbox, but the short story is that was too much cutting. The prepardeness of the students has dropped (even for an open enrollment teaching institution). You could factor Covid into the prepardeness of students, but those student that could or wanted the cut majors went elsewhere. One professor who teaches in a surviving humanities class (one that is required by business & nursing students) had to quit assigning essays because students couldn't write them. It's not a class designed to teach essay writing. I fear for the survival of the university with paired with the enrollment cliff.

My fear is that humanities-based knowledge will once again be relegated to private and surviving larger universities. This will make knowledge accessible to the elite and those who can afford it, shutting the doors on the average person to have a broad-base liberal arts education. CCs and the surving institutions will become tech schools to train people for one specific job that may not survive as long as their career. We need both. A well-read plumber or a carpenter with a business minor or a communications minor will make better business owners or employees. 

 

[Frances]

On 3/23/2023 at 3:02 PM, Clarice said:

My local CC is having struggles with enrollment. It has a new President, and he brought in new professors, largely from more urban areas. Well, as it turns out, nobody here wants to take "woke" classes. For example, World Religions uses a textbook where each chapter/religion has a tie-in section with environmentalism and the final chapter is about environmentalism as a new religion (It's called Experiencing the World's Religions: Traditions, Challenge, and Change by Michael Molloy). Well, World Religions is a required course for RNs and Pharmacy Techs. Nobody wants to take it, so guess what? Those programs at the CC are tanking, but the LPN and Pharmacy Tech programs at the trade school are booming. 

I brought this up because I think whether or not local schools are affected really depends on their ability and willingness to meet the needs and desires of their areas. The schools that fail and thrive in Florida will look different than those that do so in California, and it may be that neither resemble what works or doesn't in Utah or Nebraska or Virginia. 

Given the severe shortage of nursing school slots in my state and the plethora of high paying nursing jobs, it’s very hard for me to comprehend someone not pursuing an RN degree, but going for an LPN instead, all because of one “woke” class. Are they not allowed to take it elsewhere, say at the trade school, and transfer the credit in? It boggles the mind that someone would turn down the chance for a well paying career with excellent employment prospects because they had to take one class they were troubled by. Things really do very dramatically from state to state and person to person.

Edited March 24, 2023 by Frances

[...]

2 hours ago, Frances said:

Given the severe shortage of nursing school slots in my state and the plethora of high paying nursing jobs, it’s very hard for me to comprehend someone not pursuing an RN degree, but going for an LPN instead, all because of one “woke” class. Are they not allowed to take it elsewhere, say at the trade school, and transfer the credit in? It boggles the mind that someone would turn down the chance for a well paying career with excellent employment prospects because they had to take one class they were troubled by. Things really do very dramatically from state to state and person to person.

No, they can't transfer the credit. The trade school is just a "straight shot" program. There aren't really separate courses, or rather, the separate courses are done sequentially. It's like anatomy & physiology only, then just skills, then pharmacology, etc. Even if they do the one-year bridge, they have to take that course. 

I think it's not just the one course, though. It's more like, if even that course is 'woke,' then how are the others? 

LPN's are making around $39 an hour here, and RN's are making about $45, so a lot of people see it as a fair trade. If there was a more drastic difference in pay, then maybe we would have a different conversation. 😕

[Frances]

1 hour ago, Clarice said:

No, they can't transfer the credit. The trade school is just a "straight shot" program. There aren't really separate courses, or rather, the separate courses are done sequentially. It's like anatomy & physiology only, then just skills, then pharmacology, etc. Even if they do the one-year bridge, they have to take that course. 

I think it's not just the one course, though. It's more like, if even that course is 'woke,' then how are the others? 

LPN's are making around $39 an hour here, and RN's are making about $45, so a lot of people see it as a fair trade. If there was a more drastic difference in pay, then maybe we would have a different conversation. 😕

But one can’t easily go from an LPN to a BSN and on up the ladder. Career advancement is quite different for the degrees. Does the CC not allow the world religion class to be transferred from anywhere else, like an online class from another state CC or university? It just seems very short sighted and sort of a “cut off your nose to spite your face” kind of thinking. And I wouldn’t expect just because things are done one way in the religion department (or whichever department it is part of, humanities?) at a CC that they are going to be done a similar way in the nursing department. One is liberal arts oriented and the other is career oriented. Nursing grads have to be able to pass licensing exams and demonstrate competency in a core set of skills. That is nothing like getting a general AA degree from a community college.

Edited March 25, 2023 by Frances

[...]

11 minutes ago, Frances said:

But one can’t easily go from an LPN to a BSN and on up the ladder. Career advancement is quite different for the degrees. Does the CC not allow the world religion class to be transferred from anywhere else, like an online class from another state CC or university? It just seems very short sighted and sort of a “cut off your nose to spite your face” kind of thinking. And I wouldn’t expect just because things are done one way in the religion department (or whichever department it is part of, humanities?) at a CC that they are going to be done a similar way in the nursing department. One is liberal arts oriented and the other is career oriented. Nursing grads have to be able to pass licensing exams and demonstrate competency in a core set of skills. That is nothing like getting a general AA degree from a community college.

I don't know the specifics of transfer courses, but I know things aren't as simple because, like you said, it's different than getting an Associate's. When my husband got his radiology tech degree, which was admittedly a while ago, no credits could be transferred in for the program outside of things like English and, maybe a history course. World Religions is the backbone of the multicultural care aspect of the RN degree - there used to be two professors, one broke things up by religion and the other broke things up by aspects such as diet, death, and childcare - so it may not be something they can transfer. I just don't know. 

 

My point with those examples simply was and remains that it may not be an across-the-board x-type colleges and universities will be fine, but y-type will fail. It's going to be a very nuanced, likely regional, issue, and it's going to be hard to predict the outcomes on even an individual basis.

[Frances]

1 hour ago, Clarice said:

I don't know the specifics of transfer courses, but I know things aren't as simple because, like you said, it's different than getting an Associate's. When my husband got his radiology tech degree, which was admittedly a while ago, no credits could be transferred in for the program outside of things like English and, maybe a history course. World Religions is the backbone of the multicultural care aspect of the RN degree - there used to be two professors, one broke things up by religion and the other broke things up by aspects such as diet, death, and childcare - so it may not be something they can transfer. I just don't know. 

 

My point with those examples simply was and remains that it may not be an across-the-board x-type colleges and universities will be fine, but y-type will fail. It's going to be a very nuanced, likely regional, issue, and it's going to be hard to predict the outcomes on even an individual basis.

It sounds to me like these students are in for a rude awakening when they enter the workforce and have to deal with a wide variety of people with all different backgrounds and beliefs if they can’t handle one class that is supposedly “woke”. They seem to be the very definition of the currently popular term of snowflake. My husband had to take several useless, annoying classes with terrible professors when he got his PharmD, both before (prerequisites) and during the program. I’m certainly glad he was mature enough to look beyond the minor annoyances and keep his eye on the ultimate goal. 

[...]

10 hours ago, Frances said:

It sounds to me like these students are in for a rude awakening when they enter the workforce and have to deal with a wide variety of people with all different backgrounds and beliefs if they can’t handle one class that is supposedly “woke”. They seem to be the very definition of the currently popular term of snowflake. My husband had to take several useless, annoying classes with terrible professors when he got his PharmD, both before (prerequisites) and during the program. I’m certainly glad he was mature enough to look beyond the minor annoyances and keep his eye on the ultimate goal. 

That's great. I don't know why you're hung up on one example, though. I was hoping it would be part of a larger conversation, but you've been like a dog with a dog with a bone, focusing on a singular tree you don't like rather than the entire forest. 

I would have much preferred talking about those choices in context of the larger scheme. For example, King College of NY and Trinity, as mentioned earlier in this very thread, are struggling. However, Hillsdale and Patrick Henry are thriving. Wouldn't it be much more interesting to discuss why that is, rather than our discussion about LPNs vs RNs in one location?

Apprenticeships are seeing an increase. Colleges and universities are going to have compete against those for students as well. Will that affect enrollment from certain areas, i.e. rural or maybe even inner cities, where many students would financially struggle with tuition for a four or even two-year college?