Jump to content

Menu

Omicron anecdata?


Not_a_Number

Recommended Posts

8 hours ago, ktgrok said:

and...just spent all the money ordering more KF94 masks. Sigh. (we need XL for DH, L for me and DS22, M for DD 12 and S for DS 9 and DD 4 - that adds up!)

what brand are you getting your DD4?   My dd6 is best fitted in Bluna KF94.  I love the adjustable ear straps.  But $22 for only 10 masks!  I would love something legit that was cheaper and fit as well. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 7.3k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

23 minutes ago, mommyoffive said:

what brand are you getting your DD4?   My dd6 is best fitted in Bluna KF94.  I love the adjustable ear straps.  But $22 for only 10 masks!  I would love something legit that was cheaper and fit as well. 

If it helps any, they are $15 for 10 on https://kollecteusa.com/products/bluna-kf94-kids?_pos=2&_sid=b28452c6a&_ss=r

I don’t know what shipping is currently running though. I thought I hadn’t paid shipping there in the past. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, Pam in CT said:

That looks so promising, but I'm getting SO discouraged about rising cases elsewhere in the world just as we're dropping the last precautionary measures and we know immunity from EITHER Omicron-surge infections OR boosters is starting to wane.

It's only a matter of time before we're walloped again, and the time looks like it'll be weeks rather than months. I feel like the intervals of reprieve between the wave crests is shortening each time. Sigh.

 

57 minutes ago, mommyoffive said:

How bad could a wave of the BA.2 omicron variant be for the US? Here's the key indicator (wisn.com)

An analysis by the U.K. Health Security Agency shows that the BA.2 subvariant of omicron is about 80% more contagious than BA.1

So while a BA.2 wave in the U.S. may not be as severe as it is for Hong Kong, it might not be the same experience as the U.K. is having, either.

"What we see happening in the U.K. is going to be perhaps a better story than we should be expecting here," said Keri Althoff, an epidemiologist at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health

I have just been assuming that we will get another wave at some point. I feel more optimistic right now as the weather starts to improve because we will still be able to socialize outdoors even if we have another wave.

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

It’s going up in Aus for sure. We’ve moved from that pandemic stage where this forum is the only place talking about BA2 with any concern to about two weeks later when media starts saying “experts are warning…) In another two to four weeks authorities may decide to do something as per usual… too little too late.  Same cycle over and over.  Does it ever end?

  • Sad 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, mommyoffive said:

what brand are you getting your DD4?   My dd6 is best fitted in Bluna KF94.  I love the adjustable ear straps.  But $22 for only 10 masks!  I would love something legit that was cheaper and fit as well. 

Bluna are a favorite here too but we've made do with Dr. Puri, Flax, and other brands. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Data supporting 4th shots:

Very large Israeli study (1.1 million people age 60+) showed significant benefit: those who only had 3 shots of Pfizer were twice as likely to test positive and 4.3 times as likely to become severely ill compared to those who had a 4th Pfizer shot. The study did not include Moderna.
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.02.01.22270232v1.full.pdf

A much smaller study in healthcare workers (n=1050, of which 274 received a 4th shot of either Pfizer or Moderna) showed "marginal benefits" — infection rate was 25% in the control group (3 shots), 20.7% in the Moderna group, and 18.3% in the Pfizer group. Everyone was PCR tested weekly, so they picked up a lot of asymptomatic infections. Efficacy against symptomatic disease was slightly higher (43% Pfizer, 31% Moderna), but nearly all those who were infected had high viral loads and were likely infectious even if asymptomatic. 
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2202542

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

55 minutes ago, Corraleno said:

Data supporting 4th shots:

 

That's really interesting, for some reason I always thought the Moderna was more effective than Pfizer. I hope they allow 4th shots in Australia, they're still arguing about it.

1 hour ago, kbutton said:

Article about long Covid in kids with links to at least one study. I haven't read the study.

 

Interesting article although it read a bit - biased against school masking? There was no mention of the increase in type 1 diabetes, but maybe that doesn't count as long covid. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

26 minutes ago, bookbard said:

Interesting article although it read a bit - biased against school masking? There was no mention of the increase in type 1 diabetes, but maybe that doesn't count as long covid. 

I skimmed it quickly and posted so that others could read the study. 🙂 

I don't know if they consider something like an increase in diabetes as long covid or not. A lot of viruses trigger autoimmune issues and other conditions.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, bookbard said:

That's really interesting, for some reason I always thought the Moderna was more effective than Pfizer. I hope they allow 4th shots in Australia, they're still arguing about it.

For the first three shots, Moderna seemed to boost antibody levels higher than Pfizer, but in this trial antibody levels were only slightly higher for Moderna, and the difference was not statistically significant. There is also no data on whether antibody levels from the 4th shot will wane more slowly with Moderna, as they did with the initial doses. The slightly higher infection rates for Moderna in this particular trial may be an artifact of the small sample size plus the fact that it was not a randomized trial; subjects volunteered to be boosted and were each matched for age and gender with several controls, so there could be a lot of confounding variables there in both the treatment and control groups. The researchers did say that "our cohort was too small to allow for accurate determination of vaccine efficacy."

If the additional boosters are approved I will definitely get one, but unless there is further data showing that one is better than the other, I'll likely just go with whichever one is available at the earliest or most convenient location.

ETA: both of the Israeli trials used subjects who were at least 4 months past their 3rd shot.

Edited by Corraleno
  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Corraleno said:

Data supporting 4th shots:

Very large Israeli study (1.1 million people age 60+) showed significant benefit: those who only had 3 shots of Pfizer were twice as likely to test positive and 4.3 times as likely to become severely ill compared to those who had a 4th Pfizer shot. The study did not include Moderna.
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.02.01.22270232v1.full.pdf

 

Does anyone know if people over 60 with asthma who use steroid inhalers count as immune compromised and eligible for a fourth shot?

1 hour ago, bookbard said:

Interesting article although it read a bit - biased against school masking? There was no mention of the increase in type 1 diabetes, but maybe that doesn't count as long covid. 

It read that way to me as well. It seemed to be another of those that looks at kids in isolation without taking account that kids live in families and communities and that effects of Covid on their loved ones have direct effects on the kids as well. It seemed to me a lot of  that was being extrapolated from reports of unhappiness in kids during the pandemic, but I did not see any comparison to baseline reports of unhappiness in the same populations before the pandemic.  The research I’ve seen from Tyler Black on this point indicates that those effects often reported appear to be side effects of living through a pandemic, not from any of the protections put in place during it.

8 minutes ago, Corraleno said:

For the first three shots, Moderna seemed to boost antibody levels higher than Pfizer, but in this trial antibody levels were only slightly higher for Moderna, and the difference was not statistically significant. There is also no data on whether antibody levels from the 4th shot will wane more slowly with Moderna, as they did with the initial doses. The slightly higher infection rates for Moderna in this particular trial may be an artifact of the small sample size plus the fact that it was not a randomized trial; subjects volunteered to be boosted and were each matched for age and gender with several controls, so there could be a lot of confounding variables there in both the treatment and control groups. The researchers did say that "our cohort was too small to allow for accurate determination of vaccine efficacy."

If the additional boosters are approved I will definitely get one, but unless there is additional data showing that one is better than the other, I'll likely just go with whichever one is available at the earliest or most convenient location.

With the Moderna data, I wondered if there’s any chance that prior Covid infection had anything to do with it. I’ve only read the article so far and not the original study, but did they take into account prior Covid infection? Since Moderna was previously doing better at preventing Covid infections, I could see that at this point, there would be more people who had had Pfizer who had also had Covid than  people with Moderna  did, which could at this point lead to higher infection rates in those with Moderna in the study. That’s just one idea of a possible explanation.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

re eligibility criteria for 4th shot right now

6 minutes ago, KSera said:

Does anyone know if people over 60 with asthma who use steroid inhalers count as immune compromised and eligible for a fourth shot?...

I know a number of people in my area who've gotten a 4th -- one is a kidney donor, several are cancer survivors, one has RA. They've all just done it at the recommendation of their individual doctors. I don't know if there are criteria being set by any state health authorities, but around here it seems to be at doctor discretion. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, KSera said:

With the Moderna data, I wondered if there’s any chance that prior Covid infection had anything to do with it. I’ve only read the article so far and not the original study, but did they take into account prior Covid infection? Since Moderna was previously doing better at preventing Covid infections, I could see that at this point, there would be more people who had had Pfizer who had also had Covid than  people with Moderna  did, which could at this point lead to higher infection rates in those with Moderna in the study. That’s just one idea of a possible explanation.

They excluded anyone who had a prior history of infection or who tested positive for anti-N (nucleocapsid) antibodies, since those would only be acquired through infection rather than vaccination. They also had a specific cutoff for current antibody levels, which excluded anyone who might still have unusually high antibodies even 4 months after the 3rd shot. I think the confounding factors were more likely to be things like whether the subjects and controls had hospital roles that were more or less likely to have high exposure, or more or less likely to be exposed outside of work (large family with small kids in school vs single and living alone, etc.), and things like that. Also the trial started with Pfizer and then added Moderna later; they tried to control for the changes in case rate at the different starting times, but it's also possible that the most cautious people were the first to volunteer for the 4th dose and were therefore assigned to the Pfizer arm of the study.

Edited by Corraleno
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Not sure where this data came from.  I just got it in a Kiplinger's email.

 

Johnson & Johnson’s (JNJ) vaccine effectiveness appears to last longer than Pfizer (PFE) or Moderna’s (MRNA). While J&J’s vaccine started with a lower effectiveness at preventing infection (76%, compared to 90% for the others), its effectiveness stayed at roughly the same level for six months afterwards. Effectiveness for the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines declined over time, leading both Pfizer and Moderna to obtain Food and Drug Administration approval for booster shots. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention had previously discouraged the use of J&J’s vaccine because of rare cases of thrombosis that had caused nine deaths out of millions of doses given.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, mommyoffive said:

Odd article. He gives no justification for this statement. He acknowledges it's more transmissible and that cases are rising in Europe - so what's the argument for why we wouldn't see a surge in the US, and just an "uptick"? 

  • Like 9
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, regentrude said:

Odd article. He gives no justification for this statement. He acknowledges it's more transmissible and that cases are rising in Europe - so what's the argument for why we wouldn't see a surge in the US, and just an "uptick"? 

True.  Maybe he gave more info on the show?  I didn't see it.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 3/18/2022 at 7:26 PM, Pam in CT said:

re eligibility criteria for 4th shot right now

I know a number of people in my area who've gotten a 4th -- one is a kidney donor, several are cancer survivors, one has RA. They've all just done it at the recommendation of their individual doctors. I don't know if there are criteria being set by any state health authorities, but around here it seems to be at doctor discretion. 

 

On 3/18/2022 at 7:17 PM, KSera said:

Does anyone know if people over 60 with asthma who use steroid inhalers count as immune compromised and eligible for a fourth shot?

My mom, who is in her 80s, got her first booster early because her doctor recommended she get it asap as Omicron was ramping up. Hopefully the 4th shot probably works the same way--certain immune conditions or doctor recommendation. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 3/18/2022 at 10:16 PM, mommyoffive said:

Not sure where this data came from.  I just got it in a Kiplinger's email.

 

Johnson & Johnson’s (JNJ) vaccine effectiveness appears to last longer than Pfizer (PFE) or Moderna’s (MRNA). While J&J’s vaccine started with a lower effectiveness at preventing infection (76%, compared to 90% for the others), its effectiveness stayed at roughly the same level for six months afterwards. Effectiveness for the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines declined over time, leading both Pfizer and Moderna to obtain Food and Drug Administration approval for booster shots. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention had previously discouraged the use of J&J’s vaccine because of rare cases of thrombosis that had caused nine deaths out of millions of doses given.

This makes me wonder if a J&J 4th shot would make sense after my Pfizerx3. Would love to see data on that combination.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 3/18/2022 at 10:16 PM, mommyoffive said:

Not sure where this data came from.  I just got it in a Kiplinger's email.

 

Johnson & Johnson’s (JNJ) vaccine effectiveness appears to last longer than Pfizer (PFE) or Moderna’s (MRNA). While J&J’s vaccine started with a lower effectiveness at preventing infection (76%, compared to 90% for the others), its effectiveness stayed at roughly the same level for six months afterwards. Effectiveness for the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines declined over time, leading both Pfizer and Moderna to obtain Food and Drug Administration approval for booster shots. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention had previously discouraged the use of J&J’s vaccine because of rare cases of thrombosis that had caused nine deaths out of millions of doses given.

This is super interesting to me. I had J&J last spring and then was directly exposed to my mom’s breakthrough case over the summer and a big outbreak at church in the fall. Went to Florida the week before omicron exploded in December and still didn’t get it. I was so sure I was in the clear but then I got omicron in January. I’m guess my vaccine finally wore off. My BIL who had J&J last summer still has not caught covid even when my sister and niece had it at Christmas. If there wasn’t a risk of blood clots, I’d consider J&J again as a booster. But at this point after having had covid I’m not planning on getting one at all anytime soon. 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

There are a few caveats with the J&J study. It was sponsored by J&J but was not a clinical trial and does not provide the same sort of data that we had from studies like the UK BOOST trial — J&J were not measuring antibody levels or anything like that. They simply looked at insurance records for the period from March to August 2021; for the first half of that period Alpha was dominant and then Delta rapidly took over in July and August. Then they applied a statistical correction based on the belief that up to 40% of the "unvaccinated" cohort they were using for controls were probably really vaccinated, and this correction bumped their efficacy rates up by 10 points.

There was a Zoe study in the UK during a similar period (May-July 2021) that showed Pfizer efficacy of 74% at 5-6 months, and efficacy for AZ (which is an adenovirus vaccine like J&J) at 67% at 4-5 months. The "uncorrected" efficacy rate in the J&J study was 66%, and that was against Alpha and Delta.

Edited by Corraleno
  • Like 3
  • Thanks 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, regentrude said:

Odd article. He gives no justification for this statement. He acknowledges it's more transmissible and that cases are rising in Europe - so what's the argument for why we wouldn't see a surge in the US, and just an "uptick"? 

I can’t find exactly what I read on this on my remote device at this moment but if I am interpreting correctly, some experts think because of the timing of ba1 vs ba2 becoming dominant we will have more coverage to prevent a large surge at least for the short term.  Like ba2 was originally found in South Africa but did not cause an additional surge but is leading to a very slow down slope there.   I guess we will see, that’s just one theory.  I don’t get the feeling that meant we wouldn’t  see an uptick.  
 

 Our waste water data has had ba2 showing up here since like January 8 and it hasn’t done much so far.  I’m sure it is dominant by now. 

Edited by catz
  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 hours ago, catz said:

I can’t find exactly what I read on this on my remote device at this moment but if I am interpreting correctly, some experts think because of the timing of ba1 vs ba2 becoming dominant we will have more coverage to prevent a large surge at least for the short term.  

What do you mean by "more coverage"? 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

State of Affairs: March 21 - Your Local Epidemiologist (substack.com)

BA.2 now makes up 23% of cases in the U.S. and we expect this to increase to 100% over time. We don’t know what BA.2 will look like in the U.S. We could see a second hump, like Europe, or no overall increase, like South Africa. Or, perhaps we may see an increase in only some states. (This is exactly what happened with Alpha and has my vote.)

On a national level, case trends have been declining but are starting to lose momentum and plateau. New York is the only state that has an increasing case trend, with a 15% increase in the past 14 days. It’s an increase from a very small number to another small number, but we should keep an eye on it.

 

Epidemiologist Dr. Jason Salemi figured out how to access the old CDC transmission map (right map below) and compared it to the new CDC community level guidance map (left map below), using current data for both. On the left, 99% of counties are “green,” which means they have less than 200 cases per 100K. According to the new CDC guidelines, you can take off your mask in these areas because hospitals won’t reach capacity any time soon. This is very different from taking off masks for your own protection against infection, which is an important distinction I fear is lost among the public. The right map shows many counties in the “orange” or “red,” which means “substantial” to “high” transmission, as cases are >50 per 100K. I wouldn’t take off masks here just yet.

https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F97415aa3-167f-4fa8-b948-435c0006dd7a_622x350.jpeg

Edited by mommyoffive
  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 hours ago, catz said:

I can’t find exactly what I read on this on my remote device at this moment but if I am interpreting correctly, some experts think because of the timing of ba1 vs ba2 becoming dominant we will have more coverage to prevent a large surge at least for the short term.  Like ba2 was originally found in South Africa but did not cause an additional surge but is leading to a very slow down slope there.   I guess we will see, that’s just one theory.  I don’t get the feeling that meant we wouldn’t  see an uptick.  
 

 Our waste water data has had ba2 showing up here since like January 8 and it hasn’t done much so far.  I’m sure it is dominant by now. 

Where are you?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, regentrude said:

What do you mean by "more coverage"? 

I think what was meant was more immune coverage (previous ba1 infection, exposure, vax, etc)

I'm in the upper Midwest.  I can try and remember share our wastewater data graph when I’m sitting at my laptop and see if I can find an article I read on on this.  And this wasn’t a direct quote from Fauci, just why some scientists weren’t sure this would lead to another huge wave through the entire US in the immediate short term.   I’m not sure what to think?   Based on our metro wastewater variant levels it is behaving very differently than when ba1 came on the scene.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, mommyoffive said:

This is actually a really great summary of how varying ba2 curves are looking in different countries!

This shows the growth of ba2 in our metro by percentages in wastewater in our metro.  Blue is delta variant, purple is omicron ba1 and pink is omicron ba2.  

image.thumb.png.b5b9b47b2eb84281fcc57c2c785a8888.png

 

https://metrocouncil.org/Wastewater-Water/Services/Wastewater-Treatment/COVID19-Research.aspx

I actually like this so much for our local covid situation, you can click in and look at individual data points on dates, there is a chart for overall levels too.  It was early January when we started seeing some ba2 in wastewater.  From an overall covid numbers perspective it has looked like this.  So after watching this for the past 2 1/2 months, I can see why not every expert has drawn the same conclusion about what ba2 is going to do everywhere.  

image.thumb.png.31e77b6fcc499f0beb2cf1eeb109a588.png

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Nice that the FDA are going to discuss boosters. But beyond the fact they will not review Pfizer's and Moderna's request,  isn't that just a hypothetical discussion, as the US government has no funds to purchase vaccines for anyone but the immunocompromised currently eligible for a 4th shot?

And no more reimbursement for vaccines not submitted by April 5...https://www.natlawreview.com/article/covid-19-uninsured-program-runs-out-money

Is that the end of state-run vaccination clinics? Will undocumented immigrants still be willing and able to get covid vaccinations? This will be devastating to my state's response.

I also read that since most treatments other than remdesivir are under EUA, so insurance won't pay for them either. I also read earlier that since the US government won't be purchasing boosters and treatments, they likely won't be available for anyone, as private companies would have to compete with foreign governments on the open market. How can we get confirmation? I am surprised that there so little on the news about this? I would have thought that many of the various twitter MDs and economists who've claimed the pandemic is over and everyone should look out for themselves were surely hoping there'd be treatment and vaccines available for at least the upper middle class?

As a sidenote: A stunning article on providers like small pharmacies that will be left with tens of thousands of unreimbursed claims. https://www.arkansasonline.com/news/2022/mar/20/arkansas-doctors-pharmacists-worried-by-end-to/

  • Sad 8
Link to comment
Share on other sites

26 minutes ago, Mom_to3 said:

Nice that the FDA are going to discuss boosters. But beyond the fact they will not review Pfizer's and Moderna's request,  isn't that just a hypothetical discussion, as the US government has no funds to purchase vaccines for anyone but the immunocompromised currently eligible for a 4th shot?

And no more reimbursement for vaccines not submitted by April 5...https://www.natlawreview.com/article/covid-19-uninsured-program-runs-out-money

 

Wait, what? Do I need to worry that my DD's 2nd vaccine (she turned 5 yesterday and is getting first vaccine this week) is going to cost me out of pocket? Is insurance still going to cover them 100 percent?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, ktgrok said:

Wait, what? Do I need to worry that my DD's 2nd vaccine (she turned 5 yesterday and is getting first vaccine this week) is going to cost me out of pocket? Is insurance still going to cover them 100 percent?

Sorry, the April 5th deadline is for the uninsured program (I edited the prior post as it may not have been clear)! It also does look like the government has already bought enough vaccines for the under 5 group, also. Congrats on your kid turning 5 and getting the shot 🙂

I am very concerned about what this funding quagmire will mean for treatment and vaccines in the future - but I have not seen much detailed or informed discussion. The little I have seen is very worrisome. 

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

19 hours ago, mommyoffive said:

I feel stupid asking, but does the government do all the buying for other vaccines? Is this a thing where if the government doesn't buy them, the makers won't produce enough because it's too risky? What are the barriers to getting a shot and having it paid for by insurance or self-pay? 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, kbutton said:

What are the barriers to getting a shot and having it paid for by insurance or self-pay? 

As the consumer, self-pay has never been an issue for us to get vaccinations. Insurance would pay for whatever CDC recommends. For travel vaccinations, some insurance would cover in full and some would want a co-pay. 
The covid vaccination was free though for the uninsured and that is what the government is paying for. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, Arcadia said:

As the consumer, self-pay has never been an issue for us to get vaccinations. Insurance would pay for whatever CDC recommends. For travel vaccinations, some insurance would cover in full and some would want a co-pay. 
The covid vaccination was free though for the uninsured and that is what the government is paying for. 

I'm pretty sure the government picked up the tab for all the Covid vaccines so far, for both the insured and uninsured. The four of us each have different insurance, and the cost of the vaccine hasn't shown up on any EOB. An administration fee -- yes. But nothing for the vaccines themselves.

Edited by Pawz4me
  • Like 4
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, mommyoffive said:

Seems to be hitting a lot of higher ups in the White House ever since precautions were lowered. Emhoff, Clinton, Psaki, the visiting Irish Taoiseach. I think I’m forgetting one more recent one. Seems they should be increasing caution for Biden for awhile, because this would be a really bad time for him to get sick. 

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, KSera said:

Seems to be hitting a lot of higher ups in the White House ever since precautions were lowered. Emhoff, Clinton, Psaki, the visiting Irish Taoiseach. I think I’m forgetting one more recent one. Seems they should be increasing caution for Biden for awhile, because this would be a really bad time for him to get sick. 

I agree. We don't need other countries trying to take advantage of the fact that Biden is down, unable to take meetings, or worse, hospitalized.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


×
×
  • Create New...