The Greater Depression: How are you preparing?

[RegGuheert]

Our family has been preparing for the coming depression for quite a few years now. My overall goal as the head of this household is to provide a safe environment for my DW and DC where we can weather the storm and still grow in our faith and also education. However, I'm hopeful that by being prepared, we can also be a blessing to others who are now or will be in need. I don't know what opportunities may arise in this regard, so it is hard to plan for it. Still, I trust that the Lord will bring these to us as he sees fit.

 

Here are a few things that have been going on at the Guheert residence:

 

1) Reducing monthly expenditures to limit impact of losing our one income:

- Eliminated mortgage, tractor loan, car loans and land telphone line.

- Reduced cellular expenses.

- Avoid adding any monthly expenses (no cable, satellite TV, etc.)

- Haven't reduced internet, yet, but will if job does not hold out.

 

2) Growing more and more of our own food:

- MomsintheGarden has 1000 sq. ft. of raised beds which she plants very intensively. Lots of GREAT food comes from there. This garden is inside a fence where deer cannot get to it.

- Together we added a potato garden this year in which we planted 50 lbs. of seed potatoes. This garden is outside the fence.

- Looking to add more garden space outside the fence and moving some crops out from raised beds. The idea is to grow as much deer-proof food outside the fence to gain more space in the raised beds.

- Canning/freezing/root cellaring as much as we can to store food year round.

- We just bought a chicken house and hope to get the chicks this week. The little kids should love that! (Our CAT should also love it!)

 

3) Storing up consumables:

- Food. We're storing up long-term storables such as wheat and canned goods.

- Homeschool curriculum. We are fortunate that we graduated our oldest a year ago and so we have *most* of the materials we need for the others. We are trying to purchase any additional materials now that may be needed to get the rest of our DC through.

- Computers. We have a bunch of these. Hopefully we can get along for quite some time without any new purchase.

- Cash. We normally do not use cash, so it is a change for us to have any on hand. However, with the possibility of banking disruptions, it seems to make sense to have some around. How much is enough is anyone's guess.

- Entertainment. Lots of books and movies around. OTA and FTA TV are free, and with a DVR, they don't take over our lives. We also enjoy the Wii and Wii Fit!

 

4) Energy

- We have photovoltaics for electricity, but this system is currently in need my attention to repair a battery issue. This can run all of our needs, including the well pump, refrigerators and lighting, assuming we are very careful with consumption.

- Diesel tank is full. Unfortunately, only the tractor runs on diesel. It would be nice to have at least one diesel car, but I'm not sure I can justify the purchase.

- Propane tank holds enough for about 1 year of consumption. This is used by the cookstove and dryer only.

- Generator for worst-case situations. Need to convert to run off propane.

- Heat for winter. This is our biggest issue. We currently have a wood pellet stove and a heat pump. Each of these can heat our house, but they both require us to purchase energy each winter. I think if things get very bad we will need to purchase a wood stove and install a chimney. I had a chainsaw accident when I was 20, so I'm not looking forward to purchasing one of those!

 

5) Building a social network

- We've managed to find a local church which has suited us for the past five years or so! (No simple task, IMO!)

- We have started trading goods/services with one of our neighbors. They are old-fashioned and we have some complementary gardening/farming capabilities/crops, etc. We would like to do this with more of our neighbors.

 

6) Building alternative income streams

- Building investments which may be able to provide income through the storm. Right now, junk bonds are my favorite!

- Looking to build our own businesses to provide long-term income from multiple sources. Solar energy and/or software seem like two obvious possibilities, but farming may be a possibility. It's pretty rocky, here, however.

 

I'm interested to hear what others are doing to prepare. I know it is a daunting task, as we feel like we still have significant preparations to make, but don't really know if there is sufficient time/energy/funding to pull it off.

 

Thoughts?

 

Reg

Edited June 9, 2009 by RegGuheert
Added Wii and Chickens.

[HeatherLynn]

We're just trying to scale back where we can. We are just now adjusting to being without my full income, and I still work 2-4 days a month. DH had a HUGE income reduction too (58%) so we have not adjusted to that either. We will be moving whenever the requisition gets approved through DH company, so hoping to have a house where we can have gardens and chickens. Other than that, we are not prepared.

[Jorsay]

Why do you think that there is a depression on the way?

[RegGuheert]

Why do you think that there is a depression on the way?

Briefly my thesis is this:

 

- Money is a proxy for energy.

- Fiat money (money not based on anything) systems require an increasing quantity of money/credit to continue functioning. (It is a Ponzi scheme.)

- Oil production is at it's worldwide peak. Other forms of energy are growing, but not quickly and they will peak in the future.

- The ongoing disconnect between the growing amount of money in the system and the non-growing amount of energy means there will be a significant dislocation between the financial system and reality. As global oil production begins to contract, things will get worse more quickly.

 

IMO, we have only seen the beginning...

[KidsHappen]

Welcome aboard. This is the first post of yours that I have seen. Sounds like you and I will get along pretty well. We have had a few threads about the subject over the past six months which you can find with the search function. Key words are probably food storage, preparedness, and such. I also wanted to add that it is great to have another dad on board.

[RegGuheert]

Thanks! Yes, I saw a thread recently regarding ways to save money. Excellent! I didn't have any ideas which weren't already covered! I will look for the others.

[Jorsay]

Wow! Did you ever sucker me into asking that question. You were just dying to share your theory, but wanted some poor fool like me to ask for it first, right?

 

Well, it doesn't make sense to me.

 

I think we can all agree that there is plenty of oil to last for many years (can't we?).

 

The rate at which oil is being drilled can be increased. The amount of solar energy thoeretically available is more than we could ever use. The amount of geothermal energy is large as well. Nuclear energy for all practical purposes is limitless. There are many other sources not currently being used to capacity as well.

 

I don't see it. Care to make a prediction on when this depression will come? In the mean time, I will just continue working to increase my income as opposed to hording resources.

 

BTW: In 1999 my brother quit his job, sold his house, stocked up on food, and moved to Idaho in preparation for Y2K. He called me and advised me to do the same. By 2001 he had basically lost everything he had worked for all his life.

[JenniferB]

BTW: In 1999 my brother quit his job, sold his house, stocked up on food, and moved to Idaho in preparation for Y2K. He called me and advised me to do the same. By 2001 he had basically lost everything he had worked for all his life.

 

Pretty much off topic, but anyhoo, we have friends who did this as well, only to Eastern Washington. They were also pulled in by a scam that involved avoiding taxes at the same time. They lost everything, including a lovely house, and relationships with friends and family. :confused:

 

Oh, and on topic, we are starting from the top of your list and making steps to eliminate debt. I have taken on a day care child, and 2 boarders in our home, and all but $200 per month of this money goes straight to eliminate debt. I'm following the snow ball David Ramsey plan. If I can keep the day care child and the 2 boarders for the next year and 1/2 we'll have it all paid off by then. At this time, I'll start working on our other debts. This is like eating an elephant to us, one bite at a time, and we have a big elephant to eat to get to where you are. Congratulations, and praise God for your freedom from debt and the ability to help others.

Edited June 9, 2009 by JenniferB

[Lisa R.]

I'm asking sincerely. The reason I ask is that some folks are more concerned about the potential of coming disasters than others. Thus, they prepare, store, can, and garden more than the rest of us.

 

My grandmother was concerned about the same things you were. However, this was many years ago--around the 1970s. Although she did not have extra money with her retirement income, she spend a great deal of it on freeze dried food in case of an emergency. We ended up selling it at a garage sale for about $100 15 years later.

 

While the economy is not as strong as it once was, I do not see a greater depression coming. While I keep up with news and current events, this is the first I've heard about it.

[Peela]

We are not doing a lot that we weren't already doing. We are resourceful people who are very tuned in to the 2ndhand market, and rarely buy anything new. In that respect, we are not big consumers in the first place, even though we live well.

We changed my car over to gas (from petrol).

We bought a camper trailer- for present use, but it doubles as a possible home if things were to get REALLY bad. We have camping gear. Dh can hunt.

I put in a vegetable garden. We have chickens. We rent though- so there are limits as to how much we can convert our home.

We discuss regularly what we might do if a) things just got tight financially b) things got really bad and we needed to relocate and live in a more survivalist fashion. Not being in denial of the possibility that things could get bad is a large part of being able to survive it if it happens.

Both dh and I have lived on a very low income in the past.

 

Here in Australia, it might be better than many other places. We have an open mind, and consider it a possibility that things get quite bad. We figure we might just be in the poo along with the rest of humanity.

I personally see it as a good thing. i wish we would stop wrecking the planet for our children and future generations, and using up the resources.

However, maybe also we will avert disaster. There are thousands of people around the planet working in an underground way, things such as micro-credit to women in 3rd world countries, and organic farming, to avert disaster.

[stripe]

I think saving money and having friends are good, commonsense things for every economy. Growing your own food is nice, can be cheaper, and is likely healthier. I am more comfortable going that route than bunkering down with a handcrank grain mill and a bunch of canned goods. There is not that much canned food I like. But the most important thing I'd advise if you anticipate needing to bunker down is to move to a warm climate. (I wouldn't want to be in sub-zero temperatures without a heating source.) This is a serious suggestion.

[RegGuheert]

Wow! Did you ever sucker me into asking that question. You were just dying to share your theory, but wanted some poor fool like me to ask for it first, right?

Huh? Truth be told, I almost didn't answer your first question, since I really didn't want to have this discussion, but rather a discussion about preparations.

 

BTW, did you really think that someone who has made the preparations we have made wouldn't have an answer to a question regarding why?

Well, it doesn't make sense to me.

 

I think we can all agree that there is plenty of oil to last for many years (can't we?).

We have used about half of all the oil endowed to us on this planet.

The rate at which oil is being drilled can be increased.

No, it cannot. That is precisely the problem we face. I wonder how many Americans know that US oil production peaked in 1971? In 1956, when Dr. H. King Hubbert predicted the US peak to be in 1970, most people thought he was crazy. His prediction for the world peak was 2000. He was off by only a few years.

The amount of solar energy thoeretically available is more than we could ever use.

I agree. I'm a big proponent of solar energy!

The amount of geothermal energy is large as well. Nuclear energy for all practical purposes is limitless. There are many other sources not currently being used to capacity as well.

Solar, geothermal and nuclear are ways to produce electricity. Oil is used for transportation. Until we develop an electricity-based transportation system, these energy sources will not be useful to offset the drop in oil production.

I don't see it. Care to make a prediction on when this depression will come? In the mean time, I will just continue working to increase my income as opposed to hording resources.

It's happening now. It's interesting reading first-hand accounts of the Great Depression of the 1930s. Most people just figured things would get better "next year"...until about 1933. It was then that they started to wonder if the government really could help them.

BTW: In 1999 my brother quit his job, sold his house, stocked up on food, and moved to Idaho in preparation for Y2K. He called me and advised me to do the same. By 2001 he had basically lost everything he had worked for all his life.

I'm sorry to hear about your brother. Yeah, I moved here (back to where I grew up) in 1998 and put in the solar system in 1999. Best thing we ever did! It would have been very difficult to be self-sufficient where we had previously lived.

 

We had started shedding our debts in 1995 and it took until about 2006 to complete the process. I told my banker in 2006 that the Greater Depression was coming and he said the economists all seemed to agree things were in great shape. So I gave him a little bit of literature on the subject and let it go. Today, he introduces me to his banker friends as the person who predicted the downturn. Fact is, while most people I know lost 50% of their investments over the past 2 years, I've been reaping outstanding gains. By far we are in the best financial shape we have ever been. But I don't consider it a sure thing to have a job even through the rest of 2009.

 

Two things (there are others) that I think will make this depression much worse than the first one: 1) Most people don't seem to believe it can happen and 2) We are woefully unprepared to survive a big downturn compared with our grandparents' generation.

 

We all must make our own decisions about how we will provide for our families. Everyone approaches it differently.

 

Best of luck to you,

 

Reg

[RegGuheert]

 

I think saving money and having friends are good, commonsense things for every economy. Growing your own food is nice, can be cheaper, and is likely healthier. I am more comfortable going that route than bunkering down with a handcrank grain mill and a bunch of canned goods. There is not that much canned food I like.

Yeah, we decided not to go the hand-tools route. That's why we installed solar. Our grain mill plugs into the wall. I'm not big on canned goods either. We don't have a huge supply, except for the stuff my wife has canned from the garden.

But the most important thing I'd advise if you anticipate needing to bunker down is to move to a warm climate. (I wouldn't want to be in sub-zero temperatures without a heating source.) This is a serious suggestion.

I don't anticipate moving. Ever. As mentioned, I'll install a wood-burning stove if need be. I also have plans for a solar-heated house that is quite unconventional. My sister is building a new house off the grid and I'm installing this system in her place. Please pray for her! :D

[OH_Homeschooler]

No, it cannot. That is precisely the problem we face. I wonder how many Americans know that US oil production peaked in 1971? In 1956, when Dr. H. King Hubbert predicted the US peak to be in 1970, most people thought he was crazy. His prediction for the world peak was 2000. He was off by only a few years.

 

Hey! Just last week I watched the documentary "The End of Suburbia" which described Hubbert's peak. It showed experts talking about the peak, and how many people are saying we're able to extract more oil than ever...which is BECAUSE it's at its peak. It was very informative and definitely got me a little more scared than usual. I'm not doing much to prepare though, just trying to be more responsible with my consumption of resources.

 

I thought it was interesting in the documentary how they predicted the economy crashing right around now, and look, it's happening! Although most people wouldn't connect the economy's downturn to oil necessarily, it is still a very interesting coincidence. And yes, if the predictions were correct, we are NOT in the depression yet. Scary.

[RegGuheert]

 

Oh, and on topic, we are starting from the top of your list and making steps to eliminate debt. I have taken on a day care child, and 2 boarders in our home, and all but $200 per month of this money goes straight to eliminate debt. I'm following the snow ball David Ramsey plan. If I can keep the day care child and the 2 boarders for the next year and 1/2 we'll have it all paid off by then. At this time, I'll start working on our other debts. This is like eating an elephant to us, one bite at a time, and we have a big elephant to eat to get to where you are. Congratulations, and praise God for your freedom from debt and the ability to help others.

I didn't know about Dave Ramsey in 1995 when we started eliminating debt, but we did something very much like he recommends. It's nice to see those debts going down! It did take us longer than planned because we moved in the middle of the process. Once the debts are all gone, it is very easy to build up savings and investments. Good luck with your efforts!

[RegGuheert]

Hey! Just last week I watched the documentary "The End of Suburbia" which described Hubbert's peak. It showed experts talking about the peak, and how many people are saying we're able to extract more oil than ever...which is BECAUSE it's at its peak. It was very informative and definitely got me a little more scared than usual. I'm not doing much to prepare though, just trying to be more responsible with my consumption of resources.

 

I thought it was interesting in the documentary how they predicted the economy crashing right around now, and look, it's happening! Although most people wouldn't connect the economy's downturn to oil necessarily, it is still a very interesting coincidence. And yes, if the predictions were correct, we are NOT in the depression yet. Scary.

I haven't seen that, yet. Plots of world oil production versus time are a bit unnerving. What I find more concerning as an American is the plot of oil EXPORTS versus time. These have not been flat since 2005: they have been dropping! Imagine large, industrialized, oil importing countries such as USA, China, Japan and the countries in Europe competing for an ever-shrinking pie of oil exports.

[creekland]

Well... I guess my English show ponies would change jobs and learn to pull carts... :)

 

Otherwise, back in the 70's my dad taught me one very important lesson... He said, "always be sure you have enough land, etc., to feed yourself and your family. You can live without a lot of things, but you can't live without food."

 

I've never forgotten that - and we live on sufficient land to feed ourselves, esp if one considers all the wildlife around too. We were never invested in stocks, so we didn't lose a thing from the down market. Our investments are in real estate - and so far, we haven't lost anything with that either (luckily, due to our location).

 

I fully agree that all this borrowing to sustain an artificial bubble won't help (eventually). Who knows when the bubble will pop for sure? When that happens, we'll be glad we have our land... and I still might take you up on your solar plans too.

 

If all else fails, we'll head our pony carts your way... :)

[BalanceSeeker]

This topic is so depressing. I wish I could say we are well-prepared. We put half down on our home, but had to take from our equity line when things got tough. Then, the value dropped, so as prepared as we thought we once were headed (paying off the remaining of the house) we just couldn't get it done before the bottom fell out for us a year ago.

 

I don't know what we'll ever do if/when the big depression comes. We're sitting ducks.

[Tracy in Ky]

We're concentrating on learning to grow and preserve food, animal husbandry, construction of barns, fences, coops, etc., sewing, and herbal medicine.

 

We have a wood stove, water purifier, pond, woods, etc.

 

It's a lot to learn and a lot of work.

[Jean in Wisc]

While making your plans, you can add to your disaster plans how you would survive a massive solar flare--it has the very real potential of taking out the satellites in orbit and disrupting the electricity here on earth. In an extreme case, computer all gone. Think what that would do to our world as we know it today!

 

I like the idea of being prepared, but I'm convinced that life takes us down bends in the road that will always surprise us. Stocking up, getting or staying out of debt, learning survival skills and such can teach us to live in such a way that is basic. I believe some of us are called to this. Others are busy with other very important tasks-- searching for cancer cures, for example--and are not going to take the time to withdraw to self-sufficiency. If the time comes that people need to learn what I know about gardening, making bread, butchering chickens, sewing or...whatever, I will be ready to share what I know.

 

There is an old Chinese curse: May you live in interesting times.

 

LOL! Time will tell what "interesting times" we might experience in our lifetime. I'm guessing its twists and turns will catch us by surprise.

 

Enjoy the journey.

 

Jean

[Happy2BaMom]

...have you considered the fact that there will be approximately 349,900,000 (roughly) people who are not prepared and that ravenous armed gangs will be roving the countryside confiscating everything in sight?

 

Seriously, I'm with the "the world economy is a house of cards" crew, and we are learning to grow our own food, would love to go solar (eventually), etc. but I always keep in mind that this is not the 1870's....there are 350 million people in this country...if the Greater Depression really hits, many of them will be ripping through the countryside in search of food. Yes, you may have guns, but so will they, and chances are there will be more of them than you.

 

My point is that you can prepare thinking you can save yourself and your family, but in a true economic meltdown, it's all a crapshoot.

 

I'm more concerned with my kids and how they will survive global warming and the displacement of billions of people that will result from that. Whether or not you think warming is man-made, the truth is that the earth is warming a lot faster than anyone thought it would. At current loss ratios, the North Pole is projected to disappear in 15 years, and that's assuming the rate of warming does not speed up.

 

Sigh. It's hard not to be depressed sometimes.

[Jean in Wisc]

I'm more concerned with my kids and how they will survive global warming and the displacement of billions of people that will result from that. Whether or not you think warming is man-made, the truth is that the earth is warming a lot faster than anyone thought it would. At current loss ratios, the North Pole is projected to disappear in 15 years, and that's assuming the rate of warming does not speed up.

 

Sigh. It's hard not to be depressed sometimes.

 

The sun's warming spells are cyclical--aren't they usually about an 11 year cycle? Other planets and their moons within the solar system are showing signs of a warming sun. Since we have seen these cycles before, I'm assuming it will settle down once more.

 

Maybe that will help you feel better?

Jean

[HeatherInWI]

The sun's warming spells are cyclical--aren't they usually about an 11 year cycle? Other planets and their moons within the solar system are showing signs of a warming sun. Since we have seen these cycles before, I'm assuming it will settle down once more.

 

Maybe that will help you feel better?

Jean

 

Actually, the earth seems to be cooling again in the past couple of years, and the sun has gone through an extra-long period with very few sunspots, signaling we may have a repeat of the "Little Ice Age" that happened in the 16-1800s.

[Jean in Wisc]

Actually, the earth seems to be cooling again in the past couple of years, and the sun has gone through an extra-long period with very few sunspots, signaling we may have a repeat of the "Little Ice Age" that happened in the 16-1800s.

 

I was just reading an article the other day about the sun spot activity--or lack of it. It is rather an interesting phenomena.

 

Jean

[DawnL]

Well, we are not prepared, and it makes me nervous. The more control taken from our hands, the more worried I get. And we are terrible gardeners. We have some fruit trees that the previous owners of our home planted, and my son is horribly allergic to one of them. We don't know which one, or if it may even be more than one.

 

With my son's many allergies, he is on a gluten-free/casein-free diet. If the Greater Depression is as bad as it looks like it will be, I am going to have a hard time feeding this child.

[Strawberry Queen]

Okay, all I can say about global warming is that it. is. not. happening. here! Our springs have been later and later and we still have trees without leaves!!:thumbdown: We have a small garden, but with a cold year our tomatoes are not going to grow. My bil lost their tomatoes the other night cause of frost. There are some things that you just can't control. Realistically there are only 2.5 months until we get our fall frosts. With a cold summer I'm glad that we can rely on commercial operations for our food.

[Pammy]

I am really depressed now, lol. Seriously, we are in so much debt and uncertainty of our future that it just doesn't help to try to prepare. I am mostly concerned with preparing my kids to be ready spiritually. I am not a doomsdayer, but if any of the lessons we have learned from history are forgotten, then we are headed for trouble. I have nightmares and have had them for several years now. I don't know why or what to do with them, other than to pray. I know I sound like a nut, but I have had dreams that actually happen later. God help us all if these nightmares come true.

Edited June 9, 2009 by Pammy

[Jorsay]

Huh? Truth be told, I almost didn't answer your first question, since I really didn't want to have this discussion, but rather a discussion about preparations.

 

REally? I suppose you assumed that everyone was already well versed in your theory on the coming depression. "Why?" was the obvious question that you knew had to be asked.

BTW, did you really think that someone who has made the preparations we have made wouldn't have an answer to a question regarding why?

 

Of course I knew you would have an answer. That's why you asked the question. You wanted someone to ask why.

We have used about half of all the oil endowed to us on this planet.

Not even close.

No, it cannot. That is precisely the problem we face.

of course we can. We haven't even begun drilling in many places. We don't even know where all the oil is. The middle east controls the rate at which their oil is extracted in order to control the price of oil.

I wonder how many Americans know that US oil production peaked in 1971?

US oil production. Of course, congress won't drill in the US anymore. While other countries drill in our off shore reserves, we refuse to drill our own oil. Congress has made the decision to rely on others for our oil needs, so of course, production has droppred.

In 1956, when Dr. H. King Hubbert predicted the US peak to be in 1970, most people thought he was crazy.

Did you take that poll yourself of what people thought in 1970 about Hubbert or are you making it up? How many people in 1970 even knew who Hubbert was and therefor had any opinion at all. When you say "most" people you are making a sweeping generalization that adds nothing but emotion to your argument.

His prediction for the world peak was 2000. He was off by only a few years.I agree. I'm a big proponent of solar energy!Solar, geothermal and nuclear are ways to produce electricity. Oil is used for transportation. Until we develop an electricity-based transportation system, these energy sources will not be useful to offset the drop in oil production.It's happening now. It's interesting reading first-hand accounts of the Great Depression of the 1930s. Most people just figured things would get better "next year"...until about 1933. It was then that they started to wonder if the government really could help them.

Again, are you taking your own polls on what most people thought or what? Your making sweeping generalizations, and like all such statements, they are untrue and somewhat meaningless.

I'm sorry to hear about your brother. Yeah, I moved here (back to where I grew up) in 1998 and put in the solar system in 1999. Best thing we ever did! It would have been very difficult to be self-sufficient where we had previously lived.

Did you move there because of Y2K? If so, what happened to Y2K?

 

We had started shedding our debts in 1995 and it took until about 2006 to complete the process. I told my banker in 2006 that the Greater Depression was coming and he said the economists all seemed to agree things were in great shape. So I gave him a little bit of literature on the subject and let it go. Today, he introduces me to his banker friends as the person who predicted the downturn.

But there is no depression now. This is a recession, not near a depression. Does your banker understand the difference? Do you?

Fact is, while most people I know lost 50% of their investments over the past 2 years, I've been reaping outstanding gains. By far we are in the best financial shape we have ever been. But I don't consider it a sure thing to have a job even through the rest of 2009.

 

Two things (there are others) that I think will make this depression much worse than the first one: 1) Most people don't seem to believe it can happen and 2) We are woefully unprepared to survive a big downturn compared with our grandparents' generation.

 

We all must make our own decisions about how we will provide for our families. Everyone approaches it differently.

 

Best of luck to you,

 

Reg

 

Throughout history people of predicted incorrectly that the end is near. The damage is done to those who believe these false prophets and follow them. Incredibly, even after the predictions don't come true, the prophets are able to adjust their prophecies and the followers still believe.

 

I have to admit, I am apalled at the number of sympathetic responses to your question. However, after thinking about it, I am certain that we could get the same sympathy for theories such as OJ was framed, there was a shooter in the grassy knoll, Jonathan Edwards spoke to my dead father who told me that he saw bigfoot being abducted by aliens, etc...

 

You say the sky is falling. I've heard that a few times before. It sounds to me like you don't have your facts straight. It also sounds like you have been making these predictions for at least 10 years since at least 1998. Don't you think that in all that time the economy was bound to make a downturn? Don't you think the real estate market had something to do with that down turn?

 

Anyway, I don't know why it bothers me so much. Perhaps it's because I had to bail out my brother after he fell for someone else's doomsday theory.

[Karen sn]

Regarding your cash supply:

May I recommend silver coins in small denominations that you can trade with?

Larger coins would be wasteful.

When paper money is used as TP - silver will still be silver.

[camibami]

Our plan is to move in with ya'll.

 

 

Glad to hear things are going so well for our "back up plan". Keep up the good work! Especially that power supply- I really need my computer time.

 

:lol:

[creekland]

Actually, the earth seems to be cooling again in the past couple of years, and the sun has gone through an extra-long period with very few sunspots, signaling we may have a repeat of the "Little Ice Age" that happened in the 16-1800s.

 

If this is true, the planet has a lot worse of a future. I'll take global warming over global cooling. In warm weather, food can grow even if many folks have to move. In cold weather, food can't grow... and late/early frosts in the food belts... yuck!

[creekland]

there are 350 million people in this country...if the Greater Depression really hits, many of them will be ripping through the countryside in search of food. Yes, you may have guns, but so will they, and chances are there will be more of them than you.

 

My point is that you can prepare thinking you can save yourself and your family, but in a true economic meltdown, it's all a crapshoot.

 

 

 

Personally, I don't think it will get THAT bad... I envision it more like the 30's. Assuming we'll have extras, I plan to share with others.

[creekland]

Throughout history people of predicted incorrectly that the end is near. The damage is done to those who believe these false prophets and follow them. I have to admit, I am apalled at the number of sympathetic responses to your question. However, after thinking about it, I am certain that we could get the same sympathy for theories such as OJ was framed, there was a shooter in the grassy knoll, Jonathan Edwards spoke to my dead father who told me that he saw bigfoot being abducted by aliens, etc...

 

You say the sky is falling. I've heard that a few times before. It sounds to me like you don't have your facts straight. It also sounds like you have been making these predictions for at least 10 years since at least 1998. Don't you think that in all that time the economy was bound to make a downturn? Don't you think the real estate market had something to do with that down turn?

 

Anyway, I don't know why it bothers me so much. Perhaps it's because I had to bail out my brother after he fell for someone else's doomsday theory.

 

I'm not quite sure why it bothers you so much either. How is trying to live debt free and reasonably self-sufficiently hurting anyone else? How is this anything remotely close to your other conspiracy comparisons?

 

You are aware that MANY economists feel the same way, no? It's not just a few people on a message board. And... there are many more that predicted this downturn, in part, BECAUSE of the housing bubble (and dot.com bubble before that). Now we've prolonged it by the stimulus spending, but what happens when that stops? Or are we (several countries involved here) supposed to keep writing ourselves more loans to 'someday' be paid back? How long could your family survive if you kept taking out and spending $50,000 limit credit cards - some of which are used to pay off other cards - the rest will stimulate your area - for a while. Eventually, you'd have to declare bankruptcy. Do you think countries are somehow different?

 

For what it's worth, we did nothing for Y2K... other than watch the celebrations on TV. We're hardly withdrawing from life now. We're enjoying it. No one need bail us out... or pretend they will have to. What's the worst that can happen? We're wrong. Then what? For us, nothing changes in the near future, our real estate investments pay off in the slightly farther future and we have a nice retirement... not to mention my English show ponies don't need to find another job... and the problem is??? I'm confused.

[RegGuheert]

Otherwise, back in the 70's my dad taught me one very important lesson... He said, "always be sure you have enough land, etc., to feed yourself and your family. You can live without a lot of things, but you can't live without food."

Your father sounds like a very wise man. My father also was a wise man. Unfortunately, I'm pretty hard-headed (perhaps it's obvious ;)) and wanted nothing to do with the farming lifestyle my father had built so I went off to school and did other things. But eventually the Lord has brought me back to near where I was raised. My family and I are building our own little farm, of sorts.

We have taken some steps to prepare. I would have gone much further but my dh discouraged me and thinks we need to rely on the Lord for some things.

Please do not take this critically, since it is not directed toward you: I cannot tell you how many Christians have said to me, we are not preparing, but rather we will trust God. To me, this places God into the category of welfare provider. If Noah had "trusted God" in this manner, then I suppose we would not be having this conversation today!

I'm really surprised to see some people who don't think anything is going to happen. Please look at this blog: http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/1091-Ten-Things-You-Must-Do.html This man is a respected analyst and works in the system and voted for the current administration and I mention that so you don't think he is biased. Things are going to get ugly.

Me too. Thanks for the link! There are tons of websites (primarily blogs) that cover the fraud that is the worldwide financial system. Let's just say I don't recommend getting your financial advice from Jim Cramer or Ben Bernanke! :D

We're concentrating on learning to grow and preserve food, animal husbandry, construction of barns, fences, coops, etc., sewing, and herbal medicine.

 

We have a wood stove, water purifier, pond, woods, etc.

 

It's a lot to learn and a lot of work.

Thanks, Tracy! You've reminded me of the fact that we are about to get chickens again. DW was whitewashing the inside of the coop just yesterday evening. I would like to have more outbuildings, but those are expensive! It's very tough to decide whether to continue to try to build our investments or to spend some of it on more capital improvement projects.

 

Do you recommend any sites for herbal medicine?

While making your plans, you can add to your disaster plans how you would survive a massive solar flare--it has the very real potential of taking out the satellites in orbit and disrupting the electricity here on earth. In an extreme case, computer all gone. Think what that would do to our world as we know it today!

I've had several relatives and acquaintances approach me on this subject withing the last couple of months. I must say that I have no idea how to prepare for such a possibility and I don't have confidence one way or another whether it may happen in my lifetime. As such, we're just letting that one go.

 

Basically, we have always used a sort of triage method for decided priorities for preparation:

 

- If something is beyond what we are capable of preparing for, we must leave those in the Lord's hands. Some examples include World War, massive electrical outages, roving armed marauders, roving Congressmen armed with $10T bailouts for crooked bankers, etc.

- Preparations that benefit us both in good times and in bad are done first. Some examples include getting rid of debt and moving to land where we can live more sustainably. These preparations are done in the framework of planning which will eventually include disaster preparedness.

- After the preparations above are done, then we move on to preparing for disaster situations. The priorities for these preparations increase or decrease depending on our best guess as to the immediacy of the need. Right now I would say we are sitting at DEFCON 4! :001_unsure:

I like the idea of being prepared, but I'm convinced that life takes us down bends in the road that will always surprise us. Stocking up, getting or staying out of debt, learning survival skills and such can teach us to live in such a way that is basic. I believe some of us are called to this. Others are busy with other very important tasks-- searching for cancer cures, for example--and are not going to take the time to withdraw to self-sufficiency. If the time comes that people need to learn what I know about gardening, making bread, butchering chickens, sewing or...whatever, I will be ready to share what I know.

Agreed. I feel clearly called to this. It's been a good thing all around. We've eliminated so many sources of stress in our life by gradually getting more prepared for a rainy day. We are not so different from our grandparents' generation, except they were much better at many of the things we are doing.

...have you considered the fact that there will be approximately 349,900,000 (roughly) people who are not prepared and that ravenous armed gangs will be roving the countryside confiscating everything in sight?

I have read these predictions, etc. This one is remaining in the Lord's hands. One preparation you will not read in my list is the stockpiling of guns and ammo. (I understand there is a LOT of that going on right now.) We have never owned guns. I grew up with guns in the house and I recall sneaking in and looking at them as a child. I guess I don't think I could forgive myself if someone in the house was shot by a firearm. Whenever we have needed a firearm around here, we have borrowed from neighbors.

Seriously, I'm with the "the world economy is a house of cards" crew, and we are learning to grow our own food, would love to go solar (eventually), etc. but I always keep in mind that this is not the 1870's....there are 350 million people in this country...if the Greater Depression really hits, many of them will be ripping through the countryside in search of food. Yes, you may have guns, but so will they, and chances are there will be more of them than you.

 

My point is that you can prepare thinking you can save yourself and your family, but in a true economic meltdown, it's all a crapshoot.

No argument from me. Still, I feel better preparing than not preparing, since it is something I CAN control.

I'm more concerned with my kids and how they will survive global warming and the displacement of billions of people that will result from that. Whether or not you think warming is man-made, the truth is that the earth is warming a lot faster than anyone thought it would. At current loss ratios, the North Pole is projected to disappear in 15 years, and that's assuming the rate of warming does not speed up.

 

Sigh. It's hard not to be depressed sometimes.

For whatever reason, I have a hard time getting worked up over gobal warming. Call me Pollyanna! :D

Did you move there because of Y2K?

While we always planned to move back to this area where I grew up, Y2K moved up the timetable.

If so, what happened to Y2K?

The software was fixed in time.

 

It's interesting: For some people, like me, Y2K was the wake-up call to see how pitifully unprepared we are to handle any type of disruption in the financial, water, energy or food systems. For others, Y2K was proof that you should never prepare for massive disaster situations.

Anyway, I don't know why it bothers me so much. Perhaps it's because I had to bail out my brother after he fell for someone else's doomsday theory.

I promise: I won't ask you to bail me out if I'm wrong about where the economy is headed.

Regarding your cash supply:

May I recommend silver coins in small denominations that you can trade with?

Larger coins would be wasteful.

When paper money is used as TP - silver will still be silver.

Yes, we have some silver dimes around. I must say that the dimes are one of the financial preparations that I'm not thrilled about. Why? It seems these things are IMPOSSIBLE to sell. The spread between bid and ask is ridiculous.

 

Thanks to all for the ideas about preparations! I'm interested to hear more thoughts!

 

Finally, I apologize to those who simply find this subject depressing. I didn't post this to alarm people, as I consider the state of the economy to be pretty common knowledge. I am aware that many people think the economy is recovering, but I just don't see it. There is simply too much greed, debt and fraud at all levels: personal, corporate and government. In any case, if this subject is too distressing for you, please do not continue to read this thread.

 

Best regards,

[Guest Virginia Dawn]

What do you think of the future of individual hydrogen generators for homes? I read an article on this and it suggested that individual homes and buildings each having their own power source would not only change how people view and use power but would increase homeland security issues by making impossible to knock out a power grid. It sounds great to me, but I see corporate greed as a roadblock.

[Blueridge]

I'm finding this interesting. We are slow...very slow...to prepare. We did begin a tiny garden this year, but our 5 acres is wooded and very sloping so there isn't much chance of it becoming a farm. We do have some extra foods on a basement shelf. I am working through a simple Family Herbal course to learn how to use, and eventually grow and make, my own medicinals. Here are 2 sites that I use for our supplies: http://www.bulkherbstore.com/index?id=yAQ4BRrX and http://www.herbalhealer.com/ Thanks everyone for your insights!

[RegGuheert]

What do you think of the future of individual hydrogen generators for homes?

To be blunt, I think the whole notion of a "hydrogen economy" is a smokescreen by the government. Why? Hydrogen is not a *source* of energy, but rather is only a carrier. Hydrogen is more like a battery than it is like oil. (Actually, oil is also a carrier of energy. The difference is that energy is already stored in the oil. Hydrogen, OTOH, does not exist in our environment in a form where we can extract energy from it. Instead, we must first PUT energy into the process to create usable hydrogen. The one exception is the reforming of hydrogen from fossil fuels. In my mind, why not just burn the fossil fuels directly.)

 

Yes, hydrogen will likely be the automotive fuel of the future, but this fact does NOT negate the fact that we do not have enough ENERGY to grow our economy. IMO, we should be heavily investing in energy efficiency, solar and wind technologies instead of shoveling so much into the automotive and financial behemoths.

[FloridaLisa]

REally? I suppose you assumed that everyone was already well versed in your theory on the coming depression. "Why?" was the obvious question that you knew had to be asked.

***

Of course I knew you would have an answer. That's why you asked the question. You wanted someone to ask why. after he fell for someone else's doomsday theory.

 

Jorsay, you're a larvae on this board. Your comments are snarky. If you don't think there will be a coming economic depression, then skip the thread. No need to derail it because it's a hot button for you. I think you'll find as you stay on the board, that this is a fairly good natured spot, and there's no need for aggressive comments.

 

HTH,

Lisa

[hillfarm]

I grew up in a family of preppers. We lived in a rural area and knew with complete certainty that some time during the winter we would lose power for several days at a time and that most of the roads would be impassable during that time. My father was a stone mason, so we knew that he would be unable to bring home much of a paycheck from the first freeze to the last one (no outside work if the mortar freezes). So I often joke that I learned how to live like a squirrel--always having food and supplies put back for several months of hard times.

 

Fastforward to now, I live on a small farm. We are calmly, quietly, and slowly retiring all of our debt. The only thing we currently owe on is a small home loan that we will pay off in due time or before. The roads here are worse than they were back home when I was growing up, so I still have reason to keep a full pantry.

 

I continue to practice and learn various self-sufficiency skills because I enjoy them. The added bonus is that if needed, we could shift over to a self-sufficient lifestyle rather quickly. We are not attempting to live totally in that lifestyle at this time.

 

I suppose we would fit within Jorsay's doomsday theorist category. I would point out that it's a crowded category, with all those hundreds of thousands of Mormons/LDS who strive to maintain a year's supply of food and materials, and including all those former Scouts who took the Be Prepared motto to heart and enjoy living this way, not to mention that there are more like me who grew up in rural areas and have always led this type of life.

 

I'm sorry Jorsay's brother made some bad choices, as have many others. However, the fact that some have made bad decisions regarding preparedness does not logically imply that the concept is flawed. Or that all who practice it are in error.

 

Whether my "Great Depression" is a local weather disaster, loss of dh's job, a terrorist act, or a national economic crisis, my preparations are the same. Be able to feed ourselves for short and long-term durations. Be able to renew our resources ourselves if the duration outlasts our supplies and the availabilty of replacements. Be able to keep ourselves as healthy as possible. Be able to transition into a self-sufficient lifestyle of acceptable quality. And yes, I am also prepared to protect my family and the resources we need to live.

 

BTW, for those who are unprepared, please don't plan to come to my farm unless you have a written invitation and come wearing work gloves and bearing a hoe. IMO, many of those who don't prepare will fight amongst themselves for the scraps and remove a significant number from the equasion. Many others will have no idea of how to travel on foot across the rough and wild land that surrounds my remote area and will die from accidents, injuries, and starvation, not to mention predation from others traveling the same paths. In their attempts to prey on other farms, many will die in the resultant battles. Those few who do finally filter into my area will be undernourished and ignorant of the terrain. They will come up against a well fed, well armed, well trained populace with excellent knowledge of the lay of the local land. I don't predict it working out well for the marauders.

 

We all have the freedom to make choices. And now we have the luxury of plenty of time in which to make them. All choices come with a set of positive and negative consequences attached. Some of the negative consequences that I am dealing with now include the fact that we live not within our means, but somewhat below them so that we can direct some of our income toward preparing for an uncertain future. We don't enjoy lots of new clothes or furniture. We don't eat out much nor do we attend entertainment events that have high admission prices. We have few of the modern gadgets everyone raves about.

 

But the positive consequences include not having to find topics like this one depressing, a sense of peace about the future (I've done all I can, the rest is in God's hands), lots of fun exploring and learning about traditional practices like spinning, weaving, herbal medicine, animal husbandry, etc. If a problem comes, my family will be well fed, well clothed, and able to continue to function.

 

I hope that all will go well for all of you, too. But if I had to choose between hoping all will go well and preparing to strongly increase the chances that all will go well, I'll choose preparedness in a heart beat.

[Blueridge]

Another thought came to mind. Before Y2K (I know, I know) we had purchased a pretty neat little curriculum called Prepare and Pray. I think it is now back in print (small family operation so don't expect printing perfection ;)) if you want to look at it. It is based on The Swiss Family Robinson, and has lessons that teach all sorts of things about family preparedness. I googled them last year and saw they had Amazon links to all kinds of books that could enrich the lessons, too. Just a fun idea someone might find useful.

[OH_Homeschooler]

Throughout history people of predicted incorrectly that the end is near. The damage is done to those who believe these false prophets and follow them. Incredibly, even after the predictions don't come true, the prophets are able to adjust their prophecies and the followers still believe.

 

I have to admit, I am apalled at the number of sympathetic responses to your question. However, after thinking about it, I am certain that we could get the same sympathy for theories such as OJ was framed, there was a shooter in the grassy knoll, Jonathan Edwards spoke to my dead father who told me that he saw bigfoot being abducted by aliens, etc...

 

You say the sky is falling. I've heard that a few times before. It sounds to me like you don't have your facts straight. It also sounds like you have been making these predictions for at least 10 years since at least 1998. Don't you think that in all that time the economy was bound to make a downturn? Don't you think the real estate market had something to do with that down turn?

 

Anyway, I don't know why it bothers me so much. Perhaps it's because I had to bail out my brother after he fell for someone else's doomsday theory.

 

What is your problem? Why is it so hard for you to believe that oil reserves are diminishing? Why does anyone who believe this automatically become a doomsday theorist? Why can't we just look at the warning signs and take steps to slow the usage? I, for one, do not believe the world is ending. But I do believe we need to slow our oil usage. There IS a gray area.

 

And by the way, you just sort of pick on people's comments and flat-out deny them, but cite nothing. At least I discussed a documentary I saw. Go ahead and criticize it for being left-wing propaganda if you will (but you did not acknowledge it at all)...but at least it's SOMETHING besides my own opinion.

 

Okay, all I can say about global warming is that it. is. not. happening. here! Our springs have been later and later and we still have trees without leaves!!:thumbdown: We have a small garden, but with a cold year our tomatoes are not going to grow. My bil lost their tomatoes the other night cause of frost. There are some things that you just can't control. Realistically there are only 2.5 months until we get our fall frosts. With a cold summer I'm glad that we can rely on commercial operations for our food.

 

I don't know how to take this comment, but I wonder if you do realize global warming is about more than one fluke month. I know if you ARE going to look at random weekends that support your own personal theory about whether global warming is or is not happening, talk to my family who just experienced 100 degree weather in Kansas, at the beginning of June.

 

__________________

[Amy+2]

http://www.usgs.gov/newsroom/article.asp?ID=1911

 

Not too worried here, about the oil that is. ;)

[RegGuheert]

At 4.3 billion barrels that's enough oil to run the world for 50 days or the US for 200 days.

[Kfamily]

We're planning on moving but that is taking longer than we had hoped. My husband is trying to move out of his present job and into a new one. We hope to sell our current home this year. I'm really praying for more time.

 

How much time is left...roughly?

 

I'm hoping we can get all this done and be in a much better position in a couple of years. Hopefully, we have that long.

[PinkInTheBlue]

We buy gold as often as possible and keep our eyes on other favorable countries. :)

[Amy+2]

That there are reported 2 Trillion barrels located 1000 feet below the surface of the Rockies. On August 8, 2005, Bush gave the mandate for its extraction.

 

Sorry, thought this FACT was included in previous article. Evidently we have more oil inside our borders than all other proven reserves on earth.

Things that make you go hmmmm....

[PiCO]

We buy gold as often as possible and keep our eyes on other favorable countries. :)

 

Did gold maintain value during the last depression?

 

I have no idea. It just seems like when people can't get enough food, gold won't hold value. Seems like the value would come back after a depression though.

[RegGuheert]

That there are reported 2 Trillion barrels located 1000 feet below the surface of the Rockies. On August 8, 2005, Bush gave the mandate for its extraction.

 

Sorry, thought this FACT was included in previous article. Evidently we have more oil inside our borders than all other proven reserves on earth.

Things that make you go hmmmm....

I don't dispute that fact. (Sorry, I didn't see it in there the first time.) The more important fact here is that the USGS believes the MAXIMUM rate at which the oil can be extracted from the Rockies is 3 million barrels per day. The world consumes 86 million barrels of oil per day. The US consumes 21 million barrels of oil each day. It seems the mountains of the West may go the way of the mountains of West Virginia. Very sad...

 

The issue at hand is that we will never be able to extract more oil each day than we currently do. The impact of this inability to increase oil production on the world economy is what worries me the most.

 

One other pertinent fact in this discussion is that worldwide oil discoveries PEAKED in the 1960s. Discoveries have dropped off since that time. History has shown that the peak in discoveries is always followed by a peak in production a few decades later. We've been consuming more oil than we've been discovering for a decade or so already.

[CLHCO]

Did gold maintain value during the last depression?

 

I have no idea. It just seems like when people can't get enough food, gold won't hold value. Seems like the value would come back after a depression though.

 

Gold is a really interesting story from the depression era I'm just catching on to. We were in better shape because we were on the gold standard so the currency itself wasn't, if memory serves, the disaster as some speculate it will be this time around. Later FDR decided the US should not allow individuals to hold gold. This alone suggests it had value. I'm still sorting it all out and I really wish my knowledge of American History was where it should be.

 

What gold is bad for is daily living. It may be a good investment and it may be good for large purchases, bribery in an emergency, or to escape frightening situation, (think Jews escaping in Germany - it was used for that if you had it and got out in time), but it won't likely work for a loaf of bread, which will be the main concern for most. Goods or services to barter is likely the best choice. Precious metals may hold (may not - we're in uncharted territory) for investment.

[Ruby]

RE: Why do you think that there is a depression on the way?

 

Please read the book The Great Depression Ahead by Harry S Dent. He is an economy forecaster and has been about 98% accurate over the last 30 yrs. We too are working to downsize ourselves and become as debt free as possible. We have been counseled to be out of debt within the next 18 months. We are working on creating our business to a point where it will provide ongoing income regardless of the economy. Thanks for listening. Hope you read the book. Ruby