The Greater Depression: How are you preparing?

[Sara R]

That may be so. The problem is that the oil doesn't come out by itself. It takes oil to drill out the oil. When oil was discovered, 1 barrel of oil invested in oil drilling yielded 100 barrels. That number has been decreasing steadily.

 

Look up "peak oil." A good introduction to this topic is in the Chris Martenson "crash course," a series of online videos that explain what's going on in the economy. Here is the

.

[Karen sn]

Finally, I apologize to those who simply find this subject depressing. I didn't post this to alarm people, as I consider the state of the economy to be pretty common knowledge. I am aware that many people think the economy is recovering, but I just don't see it. There is simply too much greed, debt and fraud at all levels: personal, corporate and government. In any case, if this subject is too distressing for you, please do not continue to read this thread.

 

Best regards,

 

 

Better to be stressed now than later.

Do you read http://www.survivalblog.com/ ?

I read his book Patriots and thought it was well written and food for thought.

We're in for an economic collapse or an earthly disaster eventually.

 

Might as well be prepared. I like the Mormon's for this reason.

They seem to be pretty together on that front and the ones I know are pretty smart and independent.

[Marylou]

Sounds like you're doing this. Good for you. I especially like #9

 

http://www.crown.org/LIBRARY/ViewArticle.aspx?ArticleId=763

[Word Nerd]

Just going to throw this out there. If you're in a position to be stockpiling for yourself to avoid suffering later on, you might consider spending at least some of that wealth and the abundance God has blessed you with assisting the people in other parts of the world whose very survival is dependent on getting basic food and water RIGHT NOW.

[Sara R]

Better to be stressed now than later.

Do you read http://www.survivalblog.com/ ?

I read his book Patriots and thought it was well written and food for thought.

We're in for an economic collapse or an earthly disaster eventually.

 

 

You're kidding, right? Not about the possibility of economic collapse, but about Patriots being well written. :lol: There was some food for thought, but it seemed pretty unrealistic to me (especially the childbirth scene). I read a review on Amazon that called the book "gun p*rn."

 

I do think we have hard times ahead though, and we are getting ready.

[CLHCO]

Better to be stressed now than later.

Do you read http://www.survivalblog.com/ ?

I read his book Patriots and thought it was well written and food for thought.

 

 

I read Patriots and I admit I thought it was kind of an awful book, at least as far as writing ability. :tongue_smilie: However, I recognized from the beginning that it is meant to be more of an instruction manual and to get you thinking about various scenarios to consider in such a collapse. I just found the firearms had more attention and detail than the personality of the characters.

 

Historically speaking, it's a bit naive of those who think world empires come and go... except for ours. Oh, no. We'll manage to plug away in our excess forever. Sooner or later, yes, we will reap what we've been carefully sowing in excess and corruption.

[CLHCO]

You're kidding, right? Not about the possibility of economic collapse, but about Patriots being well written. :lol: There was some food for thought, but it seemed pretty unrealistic to me (especially the childbirth scene). I read a review on Amazon that called the book "gun p*rn."

 

I do think we have hard times ahead though, and we are getting ready.

 

:smilielol5:

You posted before me and said it much better.

[Orthodox6]

By way of preface, I do not at all deride people who are trying to make sane plans for the future. I respect them ! (There are plenty of goofy viewpoints in the world, but I don't at all think that was the OP's stance. ) I just have to report a different answer.

 

In that we already live "cut to the bone", there is nothing additional that we are doing for events which may or may not occur. Yes, dh has a retirement plan. This is not a flippant observation, but we do stand with the line, "Give us this day our daily bread." We, like many other families, have no margins to play with. If we do, we try to share with people who have even less.

[Jayne J]

If one were compiling a library of pertinant reference books, what would you recommend? (not theory books, but how-tos for basic skills)

[Jorsay]

OK. Obviously most people posting on this thread believe that there is a depression coming soon and the best way to prepare is to buy a small farm and prepare for the collapse of civilation.

 

This belief is based upon a series of false statements such as "The issue at hand is that we will never be able to extract more oil each day than we currently do." You don't have to be an economist, sientist, or oil expert to realize such a statement is false. Just reason through it. If someone builds another oil well and starts extracting oil, more oil is being extracted than previously. For all practical purposes, there is no end to the number of oil wells we could dig. Doesn't this make sense? (My understanding is that the biggest problem for the US is refineries, not oil extraction.) What about new technologies for extracting oil. Won't these new technologies change the rate of oil extraction?

 

Another problem is the economic theory. As far as I know, most economists are not predicting a depression. RegGuheert's theory sounds like the same doomsday theory that predicted the collapse of the economy when the dollar stopped being backed by precious metals. This theory, as all doomsday theories, proved to be false.

 

Why does it matter when a bunch of people get together on a website and start agreeing that we all better prepare for the end of civilization? Because when that happens, vulnerable people are convinced and get hurt (like my brother and then like me when I have to bail him out). Haven't you all seen enough false prophets not to be taken in yet again. What about the mormon who was just put on trial? What about the 7th day adventist "Michael" who claimed to be the son of God and that the end of the world was coming on October 31st, 2006? That's not to mention the really extreme cases where people end up committing suicide. End of the civilization predictions have been going on since the beginning of civilization, how many examples do you need before you become a little skeptical about their veracity? Theories of this kind can be quite attractive to people who are down on their luck or feel ostracized by society. These people can sometimes be convinced to make dramatic changes in their lives that they and their loved ones will later regret.

 

Your depression theory is based upon economics and science. Which one of you claims to be an expert at either? Do the rest of you really believe anyone of you who would claim to be an expert at both? My background is science. I took economics at Columbia University, but I don't claim to know anymore about economics than anyone else. Though I am certain there are some extremists economists out there, I have yet to hear any economist predict a depression.

 

The few 'facts' (and there haven't been many) that have been introduced into this argument are unsubstantiated and certainly don't begin to add up to an argument for economic collapse.

 

What's wrong with commisserating about doomsday? Nothing as long as there is room in the discussion for dissent so that vulnerable people at least have a chance to form a reasonable opinion on such a dark topic.

 

By the way, I couldn't find "snarky" in the dictionary. If it is a word, what does it mean. If not, what do you propose for its meaning?

 

Finally, what's wrong with 'preparing' for the end of civiliation if it never comes? It hinders your preparation for what really does come. For instance, let's assume you think there will be a depression, so you hoard your money or buy gold. Instead the economy booms and there is inflation. Your hoarded money becomes less valuable or the price of gold doesn't keep up with inflation. BTW: when folks remove themselves from the economy, it weakens the economy.

 

I am preparing for the future by investing conservatively, and steadily increasing my earning power and net worth. Of course, in any economy it is smart to keep a handle on your dept. If a 'greater' depression hits, I will be just fine financially.

 

I say it is smarter to maintain a healthy skepticism and keep your wits about you when people start claiming the end is near.

 

I guess I want to say one more thing. It saddens me that there is so much support for such a theory on a forum that I had considered to be supported by educated people of like mind to me.

[Marylou]

Just going to throw this out there. If you're in a position to be stockpiling for yourself to avoid suffering later on, you might consider spending at least some of that wealth and the abundance God has blessed you with assisting the people in other parts of the world whose very survival is dependent on getting basic food and water RIGHT NOW.

 

Preparing for hard times for one's family is not the same as "stockpiling" or hoarding.

 

And just because someone is prepared for an emergency does not mean that they do not give of their resources NOW to the poor and needy.

 

Studies have shown that this type of prepared person usually gives more to those in need than someone who is barely making it.

[Word Nerd]

Preparing for hard times for one's family is not the same as "stockpiling" or hoarding.

 

And just because someone is prepared for an emergency does not mean that they do not give of their resources NOW to the poor and needy.

 

Studies have shown that this type of prepared person usually gives more to those in need than someone who is barely making it.

 

I don't equate preparing for hard times with stockpiling either. Some people do stockpile, though, and I've read articles advocating stockpiling on frugal living sites.

[Jill- OK]

I think saving money and having friends are good, commonsense things for every economy.

 

We don't sit down on a regular basis and talk about "What if our existence turned into a Road Warrior one, overnight?" scenarios (although weathering a natural "disaster" can open your eyes to how easily things can go bad...shudder), but we do the things we do because they make sense no matter what the economy, just as "general preparedness".

 

It's a good idea to have up to date passports. It's a good idea to have a diverse portfolio, when you're talking about your life savings, and think of a few different disaster potentials when you're doing financial planning. (Stow money in out-of-the box investments/places).

 

I think it's smart to live waaaaay below your means. (We bought a house that we could afford on dh's military retirement, alone, even though it was a given that he would get another job. One never knows. A paid off house might not be great, tax-wise, but it's security, and a bill you don't have to worry about if things get tight. If we buy "new" cars, we pay them off as quickly as possible. Same with all other debt.)

 

We could garden more than we do, and we still need to buy a generator, but I'd do that, no matter what.

 

The four "Fs" guide my preparedness plan; Faith (if it's meant to happen, it will happen, and you can only do so much physical planning--you can't totally avert disaster/suffering if it's in your future), Friends, Frugality, and...well, one last thing that rhymes with "Mirearm". :D

Edited June 9, 2009 by Jill, OK

[creekland]

It saddens me that there is so much support for such a theory on a forum that I had considered to be supported by educated people of like mind to me.

 

Perhaps you should consider not reading this thread? 'Cause yes, many (if not all) of us on this board are quite well-educated... my major is in science as well. And yes, I do feel there is the possibility for economic collapse. None of us know the future for certain. The facts supporting the potential of an economic collapse are there - even if you care to ignore them - or not believe them. Educated people really can come to different conclusions... and all based on facts.

 

For what it's worth, I live on a small farm because I love rural living. I've lived here long before I got concerned about the economy and I'd still be living here if all were chugging along just fine. It has nothing to do with potential 'doomsday.'

Edited June 9, 2009 by creekland

[Jill- OK]

Just going to throw this out there. If you're in a position to be stockpiling for yourself to avoid suffering later on, you might consider spending at least some of that wealth and the abundance God has blessed you with assisting the people in other parts of the world whose very survival is dependent on getting basic food and water RIGHT NOW.

 

What would make you think that folks who are planning/preparing for their own families wouldn't be giving to others, simultaneously? I know we tithe to our church, support the food bank, and many other organizations that help folks, world-wide. It wouldn't occur to me that others in my same station of life holding the same belief system wouldn't be doing the same.

 

You could extend the train of thought above to many things. If you're able to buy presents for your children for Christmas/birthdays...why not use that to bless children in other countries, instead? Etc., etc.

 

Do you have a limit to how much you do for your own family, with surplus? Do you not keep more than a certain amount in your bank account/refrigerator/closet?

 

(I'm genuinely curious).

[Ibbygirl]

Our plan is to move in with ya'll.

 

 

Glad to hear things are going so well for our "back up plan". Keep up the good work! Especially that power supply- I really need my computer time.

 

:lol:

 

 

:lol::lol::lol::lol: Good one! :) hehe

[myfunnybunch]

Just reason through it. If someone builds another oil well and starts extracting oil, more oil is being extracted than previously. For all practical purposes, there is no end to the number of oil wells we could dig. Doesn't this make sense?

 

This reasoning only holds if you believe that the amount of oil in the ground is infinite.

 

Our planet's resources are finite. We can dig as many wells as we can fit onto the planet (which is the end to the number of oil wells we can dig) but that doesn't mean we'll be able to get oil out of them.

 

I believe in healthy skepticism too. I am just as skeptical of "Everything is peachy," as I am of "Imminent Doom!" As usual, the truth probably lies somewhere in the middle.

 

Cat

[Amy+2]

 

The four "Fs" guide my preparedness plan; Faith (if it's meant to happen, it will happen, and you can only do so much physical planning--you can't totally avert disaster/suffering if it's in your future), Friends, Frugality, and...well, one last thing that rhymes with "Mirearm". :D

 

;) Amen!

[OH_Homeschooler]

OK. Obviously most people posting on this thread believe that there is a depression coming soon and the best way to prepare is to buy a small farm and prepare for the collapse of civilation.

 

This belief is based upon a series of false statements such as "The issue at hand is that we will never be able to extract more oil each day than we currently do." You don't have to be an economist, sientist, or oil expert to realize such a statement is false. Just reason through it. If someone builds another oil well and starts extracting oil, more oil is being extracted than previously. For all practical purposes, there is no end to the number of oil wells we could dig. Doesn't this make sense? (My understanding is that the biggest problem for the US is refineries, not oil extraction.) What about new technologies for extracting oil. Won't these new technologies change the rate of oil extraction?

 

I guess I want to say one more thing. It saddens me that there is so much support for such a theory on a forum that I had considered to be supported by educated people of like mind to me.

 

Well first, I must say that is saddens me that you consider yourself educated yet you have very few critical thinking skills. I mean real critical thinking, where you actually consider all the facts, not just repeatedly throw out arguments without any basis.

 

Anyway, you're right...we are a smart species and we can always find new ways to extract oil. But that only goes so far, because oil is not a renewable resource. Once it's gone, it's gone. So yes, new technologies will change the rate of oil extraction, maybe even speed it up temporarily. Then we will not have any oil left. That's the part you don't seem to get. Sad.

 

Where were you educated, may I ask?

[RegGuheert]

This belief is based upon a series of false statements such as "The issue at hand is that we will never be able to extract more oil each day than we currently do." You don't have to be an economist, sientist, or oil expert to realize such a statement is false. Just reason through it. If someone builds another oil well and starts extracting oil, more oil is being extracted than previously. For all practical purposes, there is no end to the number of oil wells we could dig. Doesn't this make sense?

No. There are several fallacies in your statements:

- The assumption that the existing wells continue to produce the same amount of oil as you add new ones is false. In fact, in today's world, it is necessary to continuously drill new wells in order just to keep the production level from falling.

- Drilling new wells does not necessarily equate to adding new flows of oil. As you drill more wells in an oil field, the production rate of ALL the wells in the field is reduced. At some point adding more wells does not lead to more overall oil flow. Please note that Saudi Arabia has been ramping up drilling over the past couple of years by a factor of 5 IIRC and they have NOT been able to increase production. Other states in the Persian Gulf are now on their endless decline.

- Drilling wells where there is no oil does not improve the situation. The simple fact is that there IS an end to the number of wells you can drill.

Your depression theory is based upon economics and science. Which one of you claims to be an expert at either? Do the rest of you really believe anyone of you who would claim to be an expert at both?

I consider myself to be an expert in energy technology and pretty well versed in Austrian economics. I consider the Keynesian economics discussed on MSM to be a fraudulent model designed by the Federal Reserve Bank to defraud us all of our hard-earned money. Nothing else. As one of our founding fathers, Thomas Jefferson, wrote in 1809:

 

"If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around them will deprive the people of all property until their children will wake up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered"

 

I am not an oil industry insider, so what I have learned has been from extensive study of peak oil over the past 10 years. If you really want to learn about this issue, you can learn about it at a site entitled The Oil Drum. IMO, this site is *extremely* technical. I have always found it somewhat challenging to understand many of the concepts covered there. However, since you are technical, you might like it. There are some tutorials on the subject to be found there. Also, they have an excellent list of links to other websites along the bottom left column of the site. These sites cover the full spectrum of issues that are related to oil depletion.

 

Finally, I will say that the concept of "Peak Oil" is a very strange one. Most people, like both you and me, find it to be an incredible concept when they first hear about it. But it is a simple fact that relates to the depletion of *any* finite resource.

 

I wish you well with your approach to what the future will bring. I've noticed that EVERYONE in this thread brings a different viewpoint to this subject, not just you and me. For instance, I have never read or seen any of the references provided here by others before today. Thanks to all for providing these!

 

Peace.

[Jorsay]

This reasoning only holds if you believe that the amount of oil in the ground is infinite.

 

 

Incorrect. The limit on resources is not the point being addressed. The point was clearly made "The issue at hand is that we will never be able to extract more oil each day than we currently do."

[Jorsay]

Perhaps you should consider not reading this thread?

 

???:001_huh:

 

Educated people really can come to different conclusions... and all based on facts.

 

 

:001_huh: I did not imply otherwise. However, if their conclusions contradict one of them is incorrect.

[Jorsay]

Well first, I must say that is saddens me that you consider yourself educated yet you have very few critical thinking skills. I mean real critical thinking, where you actually consider all the facts, not just repeatedly throw out arguments without any basis.

 

That's not a very nice thing to say.

 

Anyway, you're right...we are a smart species and we can always find new ways to extract oil. But that only goes so far, because oil is not a renewable resource. Once it's gone, it's gone. So yes, new technologies will change the rate of oil extraction, maybe even speed it up temporarily. Then we will not have any oil left. That's the part you don't seem to get. Sad.

 

Where were you educated, may I ask?

 

So you agree with me, that the rate of oil extraction is not at a max. I do not believe that you are following reguheert's argument.

 

I have a bachelor's from Columbia University. I have studied and taught at several universities and Colleges. (However, I am not a professor nor have I ever been.)

[Sara R]

If one were compiling a library of pertinant reference books, what would you recommend? (not theory books, but how-tos for basic skills)

 

My favorite is "The Encyclopedia of Country Living" by Carla Emery.

 

The Tightwad Gazette is the best source for frugal living-in-general ideas. Increased frugality can generate the cash for some preps, and there is some overlap between frugal skills and self-sufficiency skills.

[Jorsay]

No. There are several fallacies in your statements:

- The assumption that the existing wells continue to produce the same amount of oil as you add new ones is false. In fact, in today's world, it is necessary to continuously drill new wells in order just to keep the production level from falling.

My reasoning stands

 

- Drilling new wells does not necessarily equate to adding new flows of oil. As you drill more wells in an oil field, the production rate of ALL the wells in the field is reduced. At some point adding more wells does not lead to more overall oil flow. Please note that Saudi Arabia has been ramping up drilling over the past couple of years by a factor of 5 IIRC and they have NOT been able to increase production. Other states in the Persian Gulf are now on their endless decline.

THere are wells that are untapped. My reasoning still stands

- Drilling wells where there is no oil does not improve the situation. The simple fact is that there IS an end to the number of wells you can drill.

My reasoning stands

I consider myself to be an expert in energy technology and pretty well versed in Austrian economics. I consider the Keynesian economics discussed on MSM to be a fraudulent model designed by the Federal Reserve Bank to defraud us all of our hard-earned money. Nothing else. As one of our founding fathers, Thomas Jefferson, wrote in 1809:

 

"If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around them will deprive the people of all property until their children will wake up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered"

 

I am not an oil industry insider, so what I have learned has been from extensive study of peak oil over the past 10 years. If you really want to learn about this issue, you can learn about it at a site entitled The Oil Drum. IMO, this site is *extremely* technical. I have always found it somewhat challenging to understand many of the concepts covered there. However, since you are technical, you might like it. There are some tutorials on the subject to be found there. Also, they have an excellent list of links to other websites along the bottom left column of the site. These sites cover the full spectrum of issues that are related to oil depletion.

 

Finally, I will say that the concept of "Peak Oil" is a very strange one. Most people, like both you and me, find it to be an incredible concept when they first hear about it. But it is a simple fact that relates to the depletion of *any* finite resource.

 

 

I wish you well with your approach to what the future will bring. I've noticed that EVERYONE in this thread brings a different viewpoint to this subject, not just you and me. For instance, I have never read or seen any of the references provided here by others before today. Thanks to all for providing these!

 

Peace.

 

In my opinion you have misunderstood. Time will tell. You obviously believe the collapse is near.

[Demal]

Questions:

 

I've read about peak oil, but what about coal and natural gas? The peak oil websites I've read cite natural gas studies that predate the use of hydraulic fractional drilling methods on the Marcellus Shale basin (only since 2005 or so), for example. Anyway, I think the peak oil disaster scenario -- general economic and social collapse -- is many decades, if not a couple of centuries, away.

 

For those who believe there will be general economic and social collapse very, very soon, why aren't you limiting the size of your families?

[HRAAB]

I always gain a lot of information from these threads and enjoy them. We have always, more or less, lived this way. We have no debt and have not had any since 1987 when we paid off our mortgage. We pay cash, repair, trade and buy used 'quality'. We have a large garden and orchard, chickens and are considering a steer. We store ahead (I wouldn't say stockpile) exactly, but I have enough on hand that we could survive for probably four months except for fresh dairy products. We have two woodburning stoves and use our gas furnace as a supplement.

 

We have never nor do we now live this way because we believe in some 'great depression or catastrophe'. We live this way because we like it: simple, self-reliant, healthy, peaceful. We have never wanted to be tied to jobs so we eliminated debt as early as we could in our marriage and made a commitment to do all we could to not incur debt. We don't like monthly bills so have tried to pare that down to the bare minimum. We value our time and freedom. Of course, some people think we're not free at all since we're tied to our garden and animals, but that's how we find our freedom. I store up food because I detest driving in traffic and shopping plus it allows me to take advantage of sales. We try to live a healthy lifestyle so gardening and raising animals is huge plus in so many ways.

 

If a great depression comes, we will be better prepared than many. I guess it will be an added benefit. But that was not the reason for our chosen lifestyle. Even so, I'm always ready to learn new ways to avoid debt and live simply and frugally.

 

Janet

Edited June 9, 2009 by Ishki

[I talk to the trees]

To answer the OP: Our "grand plan" (depression or no) is to move up to dh's family farm in VA, where we will live in as much of a self-sufficient manner as we possibly can. We have wanted to do this for years, but a failing economy may be just the kick in the pants we need to get out there and do it! The only real obstacle right now is dh's !@#&! loan for his DMA.

 

Jorsay, it appears that you are new here. I'm not exactly what you'd call an "old-timer" myself, but I have been here long enough to learn a few things, and I think now would be a good time for me to pass those things on to you.

 

1) There are lots of people here, most with very strong opinions. Strong opinions tend to go hand-in-hand with the ability to think and make decisions for oneself. We value that quality here. Because there are so many people here, there are *bound* to be folks who disagree with you, and some who disagree strongly with you. There will also be plenty of people who share your opinions.

 

2) If you must attempt to prove your side of an issue, polite statements go farther than snide remarks. Rude posts with the intention of cutting down someone who disagrees with you can even get you banned from the board!

 

3) This is a message board, not real life. There really is no need to take it so personally!

 

4) Finally, if a post (or a member) is really getting under your skin (and let's admit it, it happens to most of us!) there is a wonderful feature under your user control panel called "ignore." Check it out!

 

-Robin

[RegGuheert]

We don't sit down on a regular basis and talk about "What if our existence turned into a Road Warrior one, overnight?"...

Surprisingly, nor do I with my neighbors. :D But perhaps what is more surprising is the conversations that I HAVE had with several of my neighbors over the past month or so (all paraphrased):

 

Me: My employer has cut my pay 25% and also our staff 25%.

 

Neighbor 1: My employer has cut my pay 20%, but we don't go in on Fridays. My wife is upset because they cut her pay 20% but she still has to work every day.

 

Neighbor 2: My employer has reduced my workweek to 4 days and they are considering moving us to 3 days.

 

I think we have all agreed that we are not about to make any large purchase such as a house or a car. No one's destitute, only "concerned".

 

Again, this closely matches some of the accounts of the Great Depression which I have read.

[HRAAB]

My favorite is "The Encyclopedia of Country Living" by Carla Emery.

 

The Tightwad Gazette is the best source for frugal living-in-general ideas. Increased frugality can generate the cash for some preps, and there is some overlap between frugal skills and self-sufficiency skills.

 

I love both of these - they're always in a stack by my bed. Also, we have enjoyed reading the Foxfire books. You can probably find all these at your library.

 

Janet

[Jorsay]

Rude posts with the intention of cutting down someone who disagrees with you can even get you banned from the board!

 

3) This is a message board, not real life. There really is no need to take it so personally!

 

 

 

I am confused. Where have I been rude? On the contrary, I have been treated rudely by some.

[Stacie]

It saddens me that there is so much support for such a theory on a forum that I had considered to be supported by educated people of like mind to me.

 

 

What saddens me is the perception (limited as it may be) that those of us posting on this forum are like-minded. I've always come here because I can get many different viewpoints and many different perspectives all on one board. One could even say we are not all like-minded when it comes to homeschooling because not all who post here do so.

 

I sincerely hope not everyone here is perceived as "educated people of like mind" to anyone else on here. We may have some things in common, but given how many locked and deleted threads I've seen through the years, I certainly don't know where this impression came from!! ;)

[I talk to the trees]

My favorite is "The Encyclopedia of Country Living" by Carla Emery..

 

Love, love, love this one! I quote it so often that dh frequently says, "Did Carla tell you that, or did you work it out on your own?":lol:

 

-Robin

[creekland]

 

If their conclusions contradict one of them is incorrect.

 

Aye, but considering we are predicting the future based on the facts we see today, it could be years before we know which one... 100 years from now, people will know. Perhaps 20 years from now people will know. Today? We are all looking at the facts and reasoning out our thoughts for the future. It's the same with global warming/cooling.

 

As for peak oil and drilling... your facts/reasoning aren't giving me much to believe in. I'm not as up on it as some are, but from what I've seen, it does appear that we've reached it or soon will be there (decade or two). I expect to reach it in my lifetime. We can replace electric with many other sources. Jet fuel, gasoline, etc, on the other hand... those take a bit more energy. We can drill more (and perhaps should be doing so), but we can't put more in the earth. It's finite. When it goes - or drastically declines - we'd better hope there is new technology out there or life as we know it will change - everything from transportation to plastic.

[momsquared]

From a much different perspective....

 

I also do not think this is a depression - recession yes - depression no. I am not certain of the qualifications of the member who started this post to determine the difference, but he seems very well read so I will give him the benefit of the doubt.

 

A lot of financial security does not have to do with hiding away and essentially removing yourself economically. It requires being in demand as an employee. I am a teacher and my husband works in the funeral business. I wanted to change schools for next year and am still receiving phone calls even though I accepted another position months ago. I am a Spanish teacher which is in high demand nationwide. Additionally, my husband is in a business that actually thrives in difficult times - hate to have to admit this. So for both of us, we know our economic lives are relatively stable. Now someone could argue they are not if there was a complete collapse, but then who would be safe? I think a lot of companies had hired too many people to do to little work to begin with. What is happening now is not a recession/depression, but equalizing the over hiring, over spending and the over promotions of before. I apologize to those of you that are out of work, but honestly, if people were spending irrationally, so were businesses.

 

We have found this an excellent time to make purchases! We have refinanced our home to the lowest rate possible, we purchased new cars for extremely low prices and no interest and have made several other purchases that we would not have considered a few years ago, but are easy today with the greatly slashed prices. Businesses are desperate and willing to negotiate and we have been very lucky.

 

I also have to ask - if there were truly a complete economic meltdown as you are suggesting, would a person's debt matter? Obviously having liquid assets would be imperative (although the value of them could be null), but would debt really matter? I suppose if both parties were jobless yes, but if ravaging people were roaming the earth to rob my home for food, I doubt the first concern of most banks would be who has how much debt. Of course we are talking in extreme (and in my opinion absurd) scenarios here.

 

I tend to believe things happen the way they should - for better or for worse. Could we be out of a job tomorrow? Sure its always possible! Our good friend dropped dead of a heart attack last week unexpectedly. Life happens, I just agree with Mark Twain, "Life is what happens when you are busy making other plans".

[creekland]

From a much different perspective....

 

 

We have found this an excellent time to make purchases! We have refinanced our home to the lowest rate possible, we purchased new cars for extremely low prices and no interest and have made several other purchases that we would not have considered a few years ago, but are easy today with the greatly slashed prices. Businesses are desperate and willing to negotiate and we have been very lucky.

 

 

 

I have heard it quoted before that:

 

"The Depression was an excellent time to be alive - if you had a job." I regret that I didn't pay enough attention to who said it to give credit to them... perhaps someone else on here knows.

 

And... I don't believe anyone has said we are in a depression - yet. We are only speculating if/when one will come and what reasons for it might or might not be. Like you, I (personally) don't actually think all of society will collapse.

[Sara R]

Questions:

 

I've read about peak oil, but what about coal and natural gas? The peak oil websites I've read cite natural gas studies that predate the use of hydraulic fractional drilling methods on the Marcellus Shale basin (only since 2005 or so), for example. Anyway, I think the peak oil disaster scenario -- general economic and social collapse -- is many decades, if not a couple of centuries, away.

 

 

I haven't read up on the hydraulic fractional drilling methods, but--

 

Coal and natural gas can't easily replace oil. Natural gas can work for CNG cars, but changing the motor fleet over to CNG would be an overwhelming project (and how much oil would it take to create or convert all of those cars?) And can semi trucks run on CNG? I've never seen one, but that doesn't mean they're not out there. Coal can be converted into liquid (didn't Hitler do that?) but it's not efficient.

 

From what I've read, it's predicted that oil output will steadily go down. However, natural gas is predicted to continue to produce at a steady constant rate--and then be done. That's because of the nature of gas; it expands to fit the container/reservoir. And then when it's gone, it's gone.

 

The US has a lot of coal reserves, but those who worry about global warming (not me) don't like the climate change implications there.

 

My family is complete, but if circumstances were different I would have another child. Why? I don't think hard times makes life unworthwhile.

 

I too recommend The Oil Drum for tutorials and news about peak oil.

Edited June 9, 2009 by Sara R

[lori in tx]

By way of preface, I do not at all deride people who are trying to make sane plans for the future. I respect them ! (There are plenty of goofy viewpoints in the world, but I don't at all think that was the OP's stance. ) I just have to report a different answer.

 

In that we already live "cut to the bone", there is nothing additional that we are doing for events which may or may not occur. Yes, dh has a retirement plan. This is not a flippant observation, but we do stand with the line, "Give us this day our daily bread." We, like many other families, have no margins to play with. If we do, we try to share with people who have even less.

 

Yes this is us too minus the retirement plan.... we seriously have nothing left to play with, and most of the time nothing to work with to begin with. We live in a major metroplex we have no room for a garden and what room we do have we pots of herbs that is about it. We also rent and are constantly reminded we are at the "mercy" of our landlord, our paycheck is dwindling and dwindling and we are very thankful to have a job at this point.

blessings

lori

[OnTheBrink]

Wow! Did you ever sucker me into asking that question. You were just dying to share your theory, but wanted some poor fool like me to ask for it first, right?

 

 

 

 

This might be considered rude, accusing the OP of "suckering" you into asking a question. I don't know him or you from Adam, but I think he's answered your posts quite graciously, despite being accused of manipulation.

[OH_Homeschooler]

That's not a very nice thing to say.

 

 

 

Well, I guess your implication that someone who believes the oil reserves are dropping must be a total nutjob isn't either.

[Jorsay]

This might be considered rude, accusing the OP of "suckering" you into asking a question. I don't know him or you from Adam, but I think he's answered your posts quite graciously, despite being accused of manipulation.

 

OK. I can see that, and I agree that the founder of the thread has been quite gracious.

 

Please understand my point of view when I wrote that. The concept of civilization collapse was so foreign to me that I didn't think anyone would take him seriously. I was obviously mistaken. I actually thought that he had posted his thread specifically to get someone to listen to his theory. I thought that he had tricked me into asking for him to explain his theory. I felt a little stupid for falling into his trap. I see now that there was no trap, that many accept his theory openly, and I am clearly in the minority I believe that he was sincere when he said he didn't really want to discuss his theory. I had no idea that so many educated people would believe in a collapse of civilization theory.

 

I suppose I owe him an apology. I apologize.

 

Of course, that does not change my opinion on the subject.

 

BTW: Thanks for pointing that out. I always try to be courteous, but Idon't always succeed because I am contentious by nature.

[Jorsay]

Well, I guess your implication that someone who believes the oil reserves are dropping must be a total nutjob isn't either.

 

But I didn't say that. I do think the idea is outrageous. So instead of calling anyone crazy, I tried to explain that I find the idea outrageous without using adjectives or being personal.

[KidsHappen]

What saddens me is the perception (limited as it may be) that those of us posting on this forum are like-minded. I've always come here because I can get many different viewpoints and many different perspectives all on one board. One could even say we are not all like-minded when it comes to homeschooling because not all who post here do so.

 

I sincerely hope not everyone here is perceived as "educated people of like mind" to anyone else on here. We may have some things in common, but given how many locked and deleted threads I've seen through the years, I certainly don't know where this impression came from!! ;)

 

 

:iagree: We most certainly are NOT of like mind on this board. That is one of the great things about this board. It is one of the most diverse social scenes I have ever seen and I am thankful for it. I have learned more here interacting with a wide variety of people that just about anywhere. And just because someone is not of like mind does not mean they are not educated.

[OnTheBrink]

OK. I can see that, and I agree that the founder of the thread has been quite gracious.

 

Please understand my point of view when I wrote that. The concept of civilization collapse was so foreign to me that I didn't think anyone would take him seriously. I was obviously mistaken. I actually thought that he had posted his thread specifically to get someone to listen to his theory. I thought that he had tricked me into asking for him to explain his theory. I felt a little stupid for falling into his trap. I see now that there was no trap, that many accept his theory openly, and I am clearly in the minority I believe that he was sincere when he said he didn't really want to discuss his theory. I had no idea that so many educated people would believe in a collapse of civilization theory.

 

I suppose I owe him an apology. I apologize.

 

Of course, that does not change my opinion on the subject.

 

BTW: Thanks for pointing that out. I always try to be courteous, but Idon't always succeed because I am contentious by nature.

 

I completely understand a contentious nature. ;)

 

Since you're relatively new, you don't know that this topic has been discussed in various lights since last fall. With literally thousands of folks registered here, various pov's surface on the topic from time to time. I think the only common denominator is that most here home school. Beyond that, there are many, many different world views represented. How a topic is discussed is usually based on who's online at the time, and who wants to get involved in the discussion. Sometimes, if you see a discussion going a direction that's going to irk you, it's best to not bother. I know that works for me! If someone consistently irritates you, you could put them on your ignore list. Although, if you're naturally curious, that feature is more annoying than the person who annoys you! LOL

[KidsHappen]

If one were compiling a library of pertinant reference books, what would you recommend? (not theory books, but how-tos for basic skills)

 

 

Here is a link to a previous thread on preparedness books.

 

http://www.welltrainedmind.com/forums/showthread.php?t=89362&highlight=preparedness

 

Since the I have also added Pantry Cooking and I already owned Camping & Wilderness Survival which didn't make my previous list for some reason.

[JenniferB]

We have never nor do we now live this way because we believe in some 'great depression or catastrophe'. We live this way because we like it: simple, self-reliant, healthy, peaceful. We have never wanted to be tied to jobs so we eliminated debt as early as we could in our marriage and made a commitment to do all we could to not incur debt. We don't like monthly bills so have tried to pare that down to the bare minimum. We value our time and freedom. Of course, some people think we're not free at all since we're tied to our garden and animals, but that's how we find our freedom. I store up food because I detest driving in traffic and shopping plus it allows me to take advantage of sales. We try to live a healthy lifestyle so gardening and raising animals is huge plus in so many ways.

 

Sounds wonderful, like a dream come true. Good for you.

[DawnM]

I will preface by saying that we certainly aren't living in a gloom and doom shadow when we do the things listed below......what changed us was taking a class called Crown Financial and feeling so strongly about it that we got trained and started teaching it. It is similar to Dave Ramsey's approach. We live this way because I believe we are commanded to live in as little debt as we can according to the Bible, AND because we want to be free from the hold debt has had on our lives in the past, even though we didn't realize it.

 

We are planning/hoping/praying to sell our house and buy a much smaller one with cash or as close to cash as we can. At that point, we plan to save as much as we can, enough to live for a few years if we have to.

 

We have paid off everything other than the house right now and have funds going for future car needs, kids college, have 6 months of DH's salary saved, and we live as frugally as we can while still having some fun stuff.

 

 

 

Dawn

Edited June 9, 2009 by DawnM

[JenniferB]

We are planning/hoping/praying to sell our house and buy a much smaller one with cash. At that point, we plan to save as much as we can, enough to live for a few years if we have to.

 

We have paid off everything other than the house right now and have funds going for future car needs, kids college, have 6 months of DH's salary saved, and we live as frugally as we can while still having some fun stuff.

 

Dawn

 

It's people like you guys who give me hope for our economic future, and look we live in the same state! You have done very well for yourselves, and I'm sure there are many many more out there who have as well. And, I get the feeling that there are others on your same path, just less advanced in their plans.

[RegGuheert]

I suppose I owe him an apology. I apologize.

Apology accepted.

 

I, too, apologize, as I seem to have this effect on people sometimes. Just ask MomsintheGarden! My intent was not to upset anyone with this thread. :001_smile:

Of course, that does not change my opinion on the subject.

I didn't think so. I certainly don't have a problem with that.

BTW: Thanks for pointing that out. I always try to be courteous, but I don't always succeed because I am contentious by nature.

Me, too.

 

So, Jorsay, how ARE you preparing for the Greater Depression? :D

[RegGuheert]

 

...It is one of the most diverse social scenes I have ever seen and I am thankful for it...

To me, this forum does not seem overly diverse in terms of GENDER! :glare: