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Hurricane Ian


Katy
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Watch this video and it will explain why it goes down from 4 to 1. The short answer is a front causing wind shear. 

The video is about 4 minutes long but if you're in the path it's worth watching. Our area was on the fringes from the start but yesterday panic buyers were out in force. It was insane!

https://www.wesh.com/article/tropical-storm-ian/41372538

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4 hours ago, KeriJ said:

We made it through Michael. 

An online friend of mine lives in the Panama City Beach area and waited too late to evacuate. They were all okay but their house was pretty much destroyed. She has PTSD from the experience. That was a horrible storm. 

40 minutes ago, KungFuPanda said:

Was there a thread about hurricane Fiona? I looked but didn’t see one and wondered if we had any board members who live in that area. 

I'm not sure where all of our Canadian boardies live but I looked for a thread too and didn't seen one. 

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56 minutes ago, Starr said:

What happens when it drops fast?

It would be a good thing, it would mean the damage would be more from rain flooding than wind & storm surge. It’s just really unlikely to happen IMHO. That big bend area of the gulf is shallow and warmer than bath water. Which means storms generally get stronger, not weaker. Especially not dropping from a Cat 4 to a 1 in 24 hours, at least not until it hits land. I don’t remember that ever happening, especially not in September. I hope I’m wrong. 
 

I’m in the Midwest now but many people I love are in the path. This morning the spaghetti models varied from Ft Meyers clear to New Orleans. 
 

Tampa hardly ever takes a direct hit, but because of the way the bay is shaped it makes storm surges pretty dangerous there, especially if it veers in as a Cat 4. Ultimately it will depend on the tides, and they can’t really predict that. 

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We spent all weekend clearing the yard and prepping. Tampa. From the start we expected it to eventually go around us like all the others. Latest update has us a bit worried, as it looks like maybe the Euro model will prove to be right. 
 

Schools just closed in Hillsborough county for Mon-Thurs. We’re trying to decide if we will evacuate to family in TN. We’re not in a mandatory evac location or a flood zone (we’re Zone X), but this uncertainty about Cat 4 vs Cat 2? Ugh.

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21 minutes ago, Katy said:


 

I’m in the Midwest now but many people I love are in the path. This morning the spaghetti models varied from Ft Meyers clear to New Orleans. 
 

 

My son is in New Orleans and this is what worries me about everyone focusing on Florida. If it goes more to the west than they think, I feel like those areas are going to be really unprepared and won't have time to get out. 

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Just now, TexasProud said:

My son is in New Orleans and this is what worries me about everyone focusing on Florida. If it goes more to the west than they think, I feel like those areas are going to be really unprepared and won't have time to get out. 

The newest models are more East, Panama City Beach to Ft Meyers. 

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Keeping Florida people in my thoughts! I am curious under what circumstances people decide to pack up and leave, especially when they don't have family or friends to head to, and where to go, especially with the track uncertainty (we had that kind of situation unexpectedly last year (our neighbors left, we stayed -and ended up cleaning up their yard toys and tools, with their permission of course, so they wouldn't hit our home).

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5 hours ago, KungFuPanda said:

Was there a thread about hurricane Fiona? I looked but didn’t see one and wondered if we had any board members who live in that area. 

I didn't see one. My ds is in Newfoundland but Fiona didn't get as far as St John's. We drove from Maine to NL this summer and many of the places we drove through were hit pretty hard. 

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People decide when to leave based on a few factors:

1) What kind of flood zone their house is in (ie: will their neighborhood and/or access to their neighborhood definitely flood?

2) What kind of construction is their home? Newer masonry construction is safer in high wind events than an old cracker cottage or mobile home.

3) How strong the storm is (ie: a 4 or 5) is much more likely to make people evacuate than a 1-2.

4) How prepared they are as a family. Do they have a built in generator? Do they have plenty of supplies to not only live through a storm but potentially days or weeks afterwards without power?

5) How good is their property insurance? Do they feel a need to stay & protect their things from looters?

6) Familiarity with major storms.

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For our area, I would add the presence or absence of large trees which could endanger even a well-built house is a factor. Another issue could be whether pets can be evacuated along with the family (getting, say, two dogs, a cat, and a pair of guinea pigs into a sedan with four people is tricky enough, let alone finding a hotel or rental house where they can all stay). And then there might be elderly family members nearby who need assistance but can’t leave easily. All of these have influenced our thinking at various times, and we’ve made differing decisions accordingly.

ETA We’ve never been in a region subject to flooding, so there’s less risk than many face. If we were, we wouldn’t have the luxury of deciding to stay based on relatively minor risks. It’s still not fun to listen to trees crashing nearby. We’re moving out of serious hurricane territory in a couple of years, and I’ll be grateful.

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6 hours ago, Katy said:

People decide when to leave based on a few factors:

1) What kind of flood zone their house is in (ie: will their neighborhood and/or access to their neighborhood definitely flood?

2) What kind of construction is their home? Newer masonry construction is safer in high wind events than an old cracker cottage or mobile home.

3) How strong the storm is (ie: a 4 or 5) is much more likely to make people evacuate than a 1-2.

4) How prepared they are as a family. Do they have a built in generator? Do they have plenty of supplies to not only live through a storm but potentially days or weeks afterwards without power?

5) How good is their property insurance? Do they feel a need to stay & protect their things from looters?

6) Familiarity with major storms.

Yes, all of this.

There are people who leave when they don't need to. That contributes to clogged roadways and booked hotels all the way to North Georgia. It makes things harder on those who had mandatory evacuation orders. 

FTR, I lived most of my life in Florida (on the east coast) and never left. Well, once for Floyd in the late 90s but we just went to my ILs 20 minutes away. They had a block house and we had stucco over wood. Where we live now is more prone to flooding because it's near wetlands so there's a possibility we might have to evacuate if we're ever in a more direct path. 

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1 hour ago, Lady Florida. said:

Yes, all of this.

There are people who leave when they don't need to. That contributes to clogged roadways and booked hotels all the way to North Georgia. It makes things harder on those who had mandatory evacuation orders. 

FTR, I lived most of my life in Florida (on the east coast) and never left. Well, once for Floyd in the late 90s but we just went to my ILs 20 minutes away. They had a block house and we had stucco over wood. Where we live now is more prone to flooding because it's near wetlands so there's a possibility we might have to evacuate if we're ever in a more direct path. 

Since I said we typically leave... 👀 Our route to my parents' house is almost entirely backwoods Georgia and we never have heavy traffic. And we don't stay in a hotel in this situation. 

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55 minutes ago, purpleowl said:

Since I said we typically leave... 👀 Our route to my parents' house is almost entirely backwoods Georgia and we never have heavy traffic. And we don't stay in a hotel in this situation. 

Yeah, similar situation here. We’re not in Florida, and not immediately on the coast. People evacuating from the coast often come here. We still get serious hurricane damage from time to time, and prefer not to be around when they come through, but impeding emergency evacuations isn’t an issue, though I know it is in some areas.

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After staying for many, I feel like staying for a possible category 4 storm at this point would be testing the odds! But my dad had us track hurricanes on a paper grid map since elementary school, so I feel trained to start watching very early so nowadays we’d make plans and travel out way ahead of time. Too many memories of heavy, slow traffic growing up! Add post-Katrina trauma and an experience as an adult driving out of flash flooding on a road starting to get washed out, and I’m also an early bolter for slow moving, rain heavy tropical depressions, which can be more damaging than a drier, fast-moving, higher grade hurricane. 
 

Moral of the story: don’t wait til the last minute to plan and go. I know not everyone has the luxury of being able to do so, and a storm can always change course, but if you’re gonna go, go early!

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13 hours ago, Mom_to3 said:

Keeping Florida people in my thoughts! I am curious under what circumstances people decide to pack up and leave, especially when they don't have family or friends to head to, and where to go, especially with the track uncertainty (we had that kind of situation unexpectedly last year (our neighbors left, we stayed -and ended up cleaning up their yard toys and tools, with their permission of course, so they wouldn't hit our home).

There are actual evacuation zones that every address has - they are labled according to need to leave and the state will issue an evacuation order for certain areas.

Beyond that, I've only left once - I think it was Charlie? It was one of the ones that came all in a row. We had no shutters, and my sister 2 hours away had a newer home with hurricane resistant windows. So we all went there. Good move, as debris did break one of the bedroom windows and cause major rain/water damage. 

Otherwise, if we have plywood/shutters or at the minimum a safe room to be in, and we are not in a flood zone, and are inland, I'm not worried about danger, just about inconvenience with power outages. 

For the coast, if I had shutters and was not in a mandatory evacuation zone, and predicted to be a 3 or less, I'd stay. If in a mandatory evacuation zone/flood area I'd leave. If on the coast and it is predicted to be 4 or higher and I had a safe place to go, I'd leave. Best bet is to head inland a bit, not block up the roads driving all over the dang place. It weakens over land - so getting inland a bit makes a big difference. 

Oh, and my pet peeve is people driving from one part of the cone to the other, thinking they can predict where in that cone it will hit. Only to blame the weather people when they end up having arrived right where it ends up hitting. There is a  CONE for a reason - it can hit AnYWHERE in that cone up until the last minute pretty much. If you are evacuating from the coast, don't jjust drive up an hour along the coast to another coastal spot!!!!! Yes, people do this. EVERY TIME. Go inland, or fly out ahead of time to another state NOT on the coast!

3 hours ago, Lady Florida. said:

Yes, all of this.

There are people who leave when they don't need to. That contributes to clogged roadways and booked hotels all the way to North Georgia. It makes things harder on those who had mandatory evacuation orders. 

FTR, I lived most of my life in Florida (on the east coast) and never left. Well, once for Floyd in the late 90s but we just went to my ILs 20 minutes away. They had a block house and we had stucco over wood. Where we live now is more prone to flooding because it's near wetlands so there's a possibility we might have to evacuate if we're ever in a more direct path. 

This year we do not have shutters on the new house. But we have a highly rated wind resistant roof, and the windows are fairly impact resistant, tlhough not hurricane rated. But for what we will see, I'm not too worried. We also have multiple areas with no windows in case of tornados, unlike previous house. (we are buying shutters with end of year bonus, so will be okay for next season). 

 

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4 minutes ago, Grace Hopper said:

After staying for many, I feel like staying for a possible category 4 storm at this point would be testing the odds! But my dad had us track hurricanes on a paper grid map since elementary school, so I feel trained to start watching very early so nowadays we’d make plans and travel out way ahead of time. Too many memories of heavy, slow traffic growing up! Add post-Katrina trauma and an experience as an adult driving out of flash flooding on a road starting to get washed out, and I’m also an early bolter for slow moving, rain heavy tropical depressions, which can be more damaging than a drier, fast-moving, higher grade hurricane. 
 

Moral of the story: don’t wait til the last minute to plan and go. I know not everyone has the luxury of being able to do so, and a storm can always change course, but if you’re gonna go, go early!

Yeah, I would not stay in the path of a cat 4 storm (again, when I lived on the coast. Inland they tend to weaken fast before getting to us - not going to get Cat 4 winds in the middle of the state)

I saw the photos my dad took of Miami after Andrew. He grew up there, and my uncles were still living in the house they all grew up in. My dad said if he hadn't lived his whole life there he never would have found his own house, so many landmarks were just destroyed, and there were NO signs up anymore. That damage convinced me that cat 4 you leave. They were VERY lucky - a tree fell through the roof onto one of the rooms, but they happened to be in the other room when it happened. 

That said, there is a HUGE HUGE HUGE difference between say a Cat 2 storm and a Cat 4-5 storm. 

The issue with this one will be the rain - our area is already totally saturated from late summer rains. Like, my back yard is ankle deep mud and ooze in places. We could get up to 7 inches of rain here, and that's going to be ugly. Not just flooding, but the soft ground means trees that normally could withstand the high winds will topple as their roots can't hold in the soft mud - and those trees will take down power lines and damage homes/cars/etc. 

So even though I'm not predicting dangerous winds here (unless we get tornados), I am preparing for power outages and flooded roads, etc. 

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7 minutes ago, ktgrok said:

Yeah, I would not stay in the path of a cat 4 storm (again, when I lived on the coast. Inland they tend to weaken fast before getting to us - not going to get Cat 4 winds in the middle of the state)

I saw the photos my dad took of Miami after Andrew. He grew up there, and my uncles were still living in the house they all grew up in. My dad said if he hadn't lived his whole life there he never would have found his own house, so many landmarks were just destroyed, and there were NO signs up anymore. That damage convinced me that cat 4 you leave. They were VERY lucky - a tree fell through the roof onto one of the rooms, but they happened to be in the other room when it happened. 

That said, there is a HUGE HUGE HUGE difference between say a Cat 2 storm and a Cat 4-5 storm. 

The issue with this one will be the rain - our area is already totally saturated from late summer rains. Like, my back yard is ankle deep mud and ooze in places. We could get up to 7 inches of rain here, and that's going to be ugly. Not just flooding, but the soft ground means trees that normally could withstand the high winds will topple as their roots can't hold in the soft mud - and those trees will take down power lines and damage homes/cars/etc. 

So even though I'm not predicting dangerous winds here (unless we get tornados), I am preparing for power outages and flooded roads, etc. 

That’s what I was talking about - the water. A slow moving, weaker storm can be just as dangerous as a stronger storm, just in a different way. 
 

I will never forget Andrew! 

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7 minutes ago, Grace Hopper said:

That’s what I was talking about - the water. A slow moving, weaker storm can be just as dangerous as a stronger storm, just in a different way. 
 

I will never forget Andrew! 

Yes, and if you are in a low lying area, flooding can be a HUGE issue. We were very careful when buying houses to check flood zones, etc. If we were in a flood zone, we'd leave for a slow/weaker storm with lots of rain, if we at all could. 

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14 minutes ago, Grace Hopper said:

That’s what I was talking about - the water. A slow moving, weaker storm can be just as dangerous as a stronger storm, just in a different way. 

Yes, Tropical Storm Fay wasn't strong but it was huge, slow moving, and dumped a lot of water on Florida. It caused major flooding in my county. 

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20 minutes ago, Grace Hopper said:

I will never forget Andrew! 

My brother is in construction. Before Andrew he was one of those who always said he'd stay even if told to evacuate. After Andrew he was among those construction workers who went down to help rebuild. They stayed in tent cities because hotels were either flattened or unlivable. After what he saw there he changed his tune and said he wouldn't stay. True to his word when he lived in a mandatory evacuation area when Matthew hit (2016) he left. 

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27 minutes ago, Grace Hopper said:

@ktgrok2004 - Charlie, Francis, Jeanne

And Ivan, though that one hit the panhandle. Charley, Frances, and Jeanne all hit us though none directly. Frances was huge, covered nearly the whole state, and seemed to hang over Central Florida for a long time. Four hurricanes in six weeks. 

Ds was in Cub Scouts (Tigers actually) in 2004 and has a patch with the three that came through. It's got the state of Florida with the hurricane tracks on it.

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17 hours ago, teachermom2834 said:

My 22 yo ds lives in Sarasota. There are still some models showing the Bay Area taking a big hit. He seems to have a plan and he is pretty responsible so just waiting to see what happens. 
 

 

Quoting myself. I am less chill about this than I was 17 hours ago when I posted this. He and his girlfriend and dog are staying put in his apartment. He happens to live in a part of Sarasota that while close to evacuation zones is not in an evacuation zone at all. They are prepared with food and water and he actually works in a place that sells concessions and they told him to take home several cases of water and Gatorade. 
 

I think they will probably be joined by her sister and brother in law that live close to the bay in St.  Pete. They really should be evacuating as they are under mandatory I think. I think ds and his gf would like the company. They haven’t been through this before and while I feel like they will probably be ok where they are I think they are going to be pretty scared and it is going to be unpleasant. 
 

While the instinct is to tell the kids to drive home to TN and be here safe with us, I don’t feel like getting on the road to evacuate at this point is the safest thing either and they are adults who want to make a life in FL…so…oy. At this point a panicked mama who really has no experience with hurricanes pestering them from 500 miles away isn’t going to help them out at all. 

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30 minutes ago, Katy said:

I just saw someone compare this track to Elana in 1985, which was the first storm I remember. I knew it stalled off Cedar Key for days but completely forgot it then veered west and struck Louisiana too. 

Elena stayed for a long time too and dumped a lot of rain even on the east coast. My roommate and I watched out the window while an old live oak tree across the street fell when the roots were just too wet to hold. Fortunately it fell away from any houses. 

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1 minute ago, teachermom2834 said:


 

While the instinct is to tell the kids to drive home to TN and be here safe with us, I don’t feel like getting on the road to evacuate at this point is the safest thing either and they are adults who want to make a life in FL…so…oy. At this point a panicked mama who really has no experience with hurricanes pestering them from 500 miles away isn’t going to help them out at all. 

These boards really do need a hugs emoji. It sounds like they'll be fine even if they have to deal with power outages. Hugs, mama.

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24 minutes ago, teachermom2834 said:

Thank you. That is much better than you telling me they are making the wrong decision!

Sending some hugs your way.  I hope they stay safe. So nerve racking.  

  We were down in Sarasota during summer and my kids have friends and teachers down there, so it is hitting close to home.  

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55 minutes ago, Lady Florida. said:

And Ivan, though that one hit the panhandle. Charley, Frances, and Jeanne all hit us though none directly. Frances was huge, covered nearly the whole state, and seemed to hang over Central Florida for a long time. Four hurricanes in six weeks. 

Ds was in Cub Scouts (Tigers actually) in 2004 and has a patch with the three that came through. It's got the state of Florida with the hurricane tracks on it.

LOL thank you for correcting my spelling!

And I can’t believe I forgot to mention  Ivan that same year. 

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1 hour ago, Lady Florida. said:

And Ivan, though that one hit the panhandle. Charley, Frances, and Jeanne all hit us though none directly. Frances was huge, covered nearly the whole state, and seemed to hang over Central Florida for a long time. Four hurricanes in six weeks. 

Ds was in Cub Scouts (Tigers actually) in 2004 and has a patch with the three that came through. It's got the state of Florida with the hurricane tracks on it.

I feel like all of us should have gotten a patch or trophy or something for that year! I am not sure which it was, I think Frances, where we were without power for nearly 2 weeks. Ugh. 

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Tell your son to order pizza from his favorite place before the storm hits - left over pizza can be eat cold out of the fridge if power goes out and is tastier than most cold food! And start freezing water in plastic containers to use as ice packs now. If they don't have a few coolers they should get them now if they can. Even cheap styrofoam ones will work. It's nicer to have two separate ones, one for cold drinks and such and one for more perishable stuff, if possible. That way you are not opening the one iwth the truly perishable stuff constantly and it stays cold longer. 

Does their apartment complex have grills to use? If so, get some charcoal so they can grill hotdogs/burgers (get frozen patties and cook once they start to thaw), and heat water for coffee. 

Oh, and if they are coffee drinkers, have them get some bottled/canned cold brew, or starbucks cans of double shot, etc - trust me that a hurricane is NOT the time to cut out coffee and get a caffiene withdrawal headache! And having a can or bottle to open and have coffee before having to go deal with boiling water on a grill or whatever is a life saver - especially if power is out and they are hot and sweating - cold coffee will be nicer than hot. 

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My other big prep tip is to get all the laundry done! Not only will a power outage mean you can't wash clothes so running out is an issue - but any dirty sweaty stuff will start to STINK if power goes out and house/apartment is hot and humid! (ask me how I know, lol)

That includes bed linens, bath mats, etc. 

 

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Oh, and I am sure all of the boardies know this and probably your kids if they grew up there, but if you are evacuating. Take everything out of the fridge and freezer, especially the meat. My son and his roommates fled their apartment in New Orleans last year. First time he had ever had to do that. He was the first one back a week or two later ( whenever they opened it up).  He called me gagging. Raw chicken jiuce was everywhere.  He said it stunk and there were all of these flies and maggots because the hurricane broke windows.  They ended up having to get a new fridge because they couldn't get the smell out.  Probably old news or common sense for y'all, but just thought I would mention it. 

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2 minutes ago, TexasProud said:

Oh, and I am sure all of the boardies know this and probably your kids if they grew up there, but if you are evacuating. Take everything out of the fridge and freezer, especially the meat. My son and his roommates fled their apartment in New Orleans last year. First time he had ever had to do that. He was the first one back a week or two later ( whenever they opened it up).  He called me gagging. Raw chicken jiuce was everywhere.  He said it stunk and there were all of these flies and maggots because the hurricane broke windows.  They ended up having to get a new fridge because they couldn't get the smell out.  Probably old news or common sense for y'all, but just thought I would mention it. 

oh yeah! Time to clean it out! and if you have to leave, shove that stuff in a cooler and take it with you if you can, trash if you can't. 

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26 minutes ago, TexasProud said:

Oh, and I am sure all of the boardies know this and probably your kids if they grew up there, but if you are evacuating. Take everything out of the fridge and freezer, especially the meat. My son and his roommates fled their apartment in New Orleans last year. First time he had ever had to do that. He was the first one back a week or two later ( whenever they opened it up).  He called me gagging. Raw chicken jiuce was everywhere.  He said it stunk and there were all of these flies and maggots because the hurricane broke windows.  They ended up having to get a new fridge because they couldn't get the smell out.  Probably old news or common sense for y'all, but just thought I would mention it. 

I remember all the fridge/freezers lined up in curbs after Katrina. Insurance adjusters told everyone to not open the doors, just to secure it closed with duct tape and roll it out to the curb. 

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My county is now under a Tropical Storm Watch. It was expected especially with the new eastward track but now it's official.

30 minutes ago, ktgrok said:

My other big prep tip is to get all the laundry done! Not only will a power outage mean you can't wash clothes so running out is an issue - but any dirty sweaty stuff will start to STINK if power goes out and house/apartment is hot and humid! (ask me how I know, lol)

That includes bed linens, bath mats, etc. 

 

Yes! Laundry and hot showers while you still have hot water. 

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