Ukraine

[YaelAldrich]

3 hours ago, AnotherNewName said:

That is certainly one way of skewing historical events.

I'm not fighting with you, whoever you are. If you want to fight about this please feel free to take it to its own thread.

[AnotherNewName]

1 hour ago, YaelAldrich said:

I'm not fighting with you, whoever you are. If you want to fight about this please feel free to take it to its own thread.

Pointing out that you are pushing a skewed version of history which ignores some basic facts isn't fighting, but you do you.  And I am pretty sure my previous account was on this board as long, if not longer, than you.

[Sneezyone]

1 hour ago, AnotherNewName said:

Pointing out that you are pushing a skewed version of history which ignores some basic facts isn't fighting, but you do you.  And I am pretty sure my previous account was on this board as long, if not longer, than you.

Please, ChocolateReign, explain what basic facts are being ignored. --not because I am incurious but because this is an issue on which I'd like to learn more.

[AnotherNewName]

23 minutes ago, Sneezyone said:

Please, ChocolateReign, explain what basic facts are being ignored. --not because I am incurious but because this is an issue on which I'd like to learn more.

The main one is how Israel was formed thru mass immigration and the decision of colonial powers to anoint a new state in the middle of land occupied by others.  Israel claimed a right to exist due to a historical claim and was settled heavily by those who had lived in other parts of the world for centuries, which resulted in the displacement of Palestinians. The first war started after the Partition of 1947 when the rights of 67% of the population were brushed aside for the creation of Israel, and that isn't even factoring in that many of the remaining 33% were new immigrants to the land.  So, while it is correct to say Israel was attacked, it is also understandable why those who felt a new country was taking their land reacted as others have throughout history.  It could easily be argued in some ways Israel is more analogous in current events to Russia than it is Ukraine as it asserted a historical claim as reason to displace current residents.

 

[Sneezyone]

2 minutes ago, AnotherNewName said:

The main one is how Israel was formed thru mass immigration and the decision of colonial powers to anoint a new state in the middle of land occupied by others.  Israel claimed a right to exist due to a historical claim and was settled heavily by those who had lived in other parts of the world for centuries, which resulted in the displacement of Palestinians. The first war started after the Partition of 1947 when the rights of 67% of the population were brushed aside for the creation of Israel, and that isn't even factoring in that many of the remaining 33% were new immigrants to the land.  So, while it is correct to say Israel was attacked, it is also understandable why those who felt a new country was taking their land reacted as others have throughout history.  It could easily be argued in some ways Israel is more analogous in current events to Russia than it is Ukraine as it asserted a historical claim as reason to displace current residents.

 

I appreciate both the clarification and the ID confirmation.

[Melissa Louise]

15 hours ago, YaelAldrich said:

He's Jewish (married to a non-Jew and purportedly converted to her religion).

I don't think Israel can sell or give them the Iron Dome technology.  It's American tech married to Israel tech and the US isn't giving that kind of thing at this point.

And your assertion that Ukraine was invaded without attacking anyone is exactly what happened to Israel multiple times. And the world (apart from the US and some tiny countries) thought that was just peachy, until this very day.

But overall, Israel is better off not going 100% either way.  Israel has no real, 100% military allies either. 

I think most Israelis are cautiously to positively in favor of Ukraine.  But the government must take a nuanced view that takes in consideration the whole of world politics.

I read that Iron Dome is not even suitable for Ukraine. Can't cite where or who said, just that Iron Dome suits short range attacks, not the longer range. No idea if that's correct. 

I've noticed a lot of commentator weirdness about Israel re Ukraine. It's really odd. I'm more curious about the radio silence re India's position or lack thereof. Which surprised me greatly! Wth, India?! 

Put me in the column of  'doesn't believe Jews settling in Israel are analogous to Putin and Putin's army commiting war crimes in Ukraine. '

[Ausmumof3]

2 hours ago, Melissa Louise said:

I read that Iron Dome is not even suitable for Ukraine. Can't cite where or who said, just that Iron Dome suits short range attacks, not the longer range. No idea if that's correct. 

I've noticed a lot of commentator weirdness about Israel re Ukraine. It's really odd. I'm more curious about the radio silence re India's position or lack thereof. Which surprised me greatly! Wth, India?! 

Put me in the column of  'doesn't believe Jews settling in Israel are analogous to Putin and Putin's army commiting war crimes in Ukraine. '

I’ve seen the same - that Iron Dome isn’t suitable.  I think I have seen a video of it working and I can’t see how it would be adequate against some of the stuff that Russia has and the much larger territory?

I’ve seen a lot of negativity toward Ukraine on Twitter from people from India - I think they claim that Ukraine supplied weapons to Pakistan during their disputes with India, whereas Russia were supportive of India.

[SKL]

1 hour ago, Ausmumof3 said:

I’ve seen the same - that Iron Dome isn’t suitable.  I think I have seen a video of it working and I can’t see how it would be adequate against some of the stuff that Russia has and the much larger territory?

I’ve seen a lot of negativity toward Ukraine on Twitter from people from India - I think they claim that Ukraine supplied weapons to Pakistan during their disputes with India, whereas Russia were supportive of India.

Russia was in control of Indian propaganda for many years.  Maybe that's still going on via fake news etc.  Russia is great at that.

I would be very skeptical of claims of Ukraine supplying Pakistan for several reasons, but I can't claim to be an expert on that history.  I do know Ukraine was 100% controlled by Russia during the time Russia was very involved with India, but I'd have to study the history more in order to really argue the point.

[Ausmumof3]

15 minutes ago, SKL said:

Russia was in control of Indian propaganda for many years.  Maybe that's still going on via fake news etc.  Russia is great at that.

I would be very skeptical of claims of Ukraine supplying Pakistan for several reasons, but I can't claim to be an expert on that history.  I do know Ukraine was 100% controlled by Russia during the time Russia was very involved with India, but I'd have to study the history more in order to really argue the point.

I should have been more clear - I don’t think the claim was supply - as in support free of charge - but continued to sell to.

 

[Pam in CT]

Re Israel and Ukraine, old times and new times, "Cossacks" and "Nazis" and "collaborators", and who's David and who's Goliath in which tragic round of human history... is all a really really long and intertwined story that, I concur with YA, warrants its own thread, probably over on Politics. (Like Russia's longstanding influence on India) it definitely *affects*  current events in Ukraine; but that effect is NOT reducible to soundbytes or snipe-and-runs.

 

There is definitely *a* sense in which this is definitely true.

9 hours ago, AnotherNewName said:

.... It could easily be argued in some ways Israel is more analogous in current events to Russia than it is Ukraine as it asserted a historical claim as reason to displace current residents.

Like many conflicts: what you see depends on when you start the clock as well as where you stand.

 

This though

10 hours ago, AnotherNewName said:

... I am pretty sure my previous account was on this board as long, if not longer, than you.

is perplexing to  me.  The way changing-board identity (and basic Theory of Mind) works is: YOU know who/what your previous account on the board was. YOU know how long you've been on.

But other board members don't.

There are good reasons sometimes to change board identities. That's fine. But it really is not reasonable to expect that when you do, other members old or new divine your prior ID, or happen to see a one-off announcement, or remember the association, or etc. You reset the clock, that's great, there are good reasons sometimes. The consequence is, you've reset the clock.

[AnotherNewName]

6 hours ago, Melissa Louise said:

I read that Iron Dome is not even suitable for Ukraine. Can't cite where or who said, just that Iron Dome suits short range attacks, not the longer range. No idea if that's correct. 

I've noticed a lot of commentator weirdness about Israel re Ukraine. It's really odd. I'm more curious about the radio silence re India's position or lack thereof. Which surprised me greatly! Wth, India?! 

Put me in the column of  'doesn't believe Jews settling in Israel are analogous to Putin and Putin's army commiting war crimes in Ukraine. '

Russia and India have long had close economic and strategic ties.  The USSR frequently sided with India within the UN when international intervention in the Kashmir conflict was considered.  Russia has sold a lot of military hardware to India.

"Settling" is doing a lot of work in that sentence. The ICC certainly has a different position regarding Israeli war crimes in the Palestinian conflict.  And the facts back them up.

Kafr Qasim massacre - Wikipedia

Khan Yunis massacre - Wikipedia

Wehda Street airstrikes - Wikipedia

 

[AnotherNewName]

2 hours ago, Pam in CT said:

 

There are good reasons sometimes to change board identities. That's fine. But it really is not reasonable to expect that when you do, other members old or new divine your prior ID, or happen to see a one-off announcement, or remember the association, or etc. You reset the clock, that's great, there are good reasons sometimes. The consequence is, you've reset the clock.

I didn't reset the clock intentionally. When the board changed over I didn't realize my account was connected to an email address I no longer used.  I returned under a similar name and an admin attempted to merge the two accounts I lost access to the new one. Hence coming back as AnotherNewName.  

YA made a snarky comment and I responded. If you think it goes any deeper then that is on you.

[mommyoffive]

Belarusian military could 'soon' join war in Ukraine, US and NATO officials say (msn.com)

[Melissa Louise]

3 hours ago, AnotherNewName said:

Russia and India have long had close economic and strategic ties.  The USSR frequently sided with India within the UN when international intervention in the Kashmir conflict was considered.  Russia has sold a lot of military hardware to India.

"Settling" is doing a lot of work in that sentence. The ICC certainly has a different position regarding Israeli war crimes in the Palestinian conflict.  And the facts back them up.

Kafr Qasim massacre - Wikipedia

Khan Yunis massacre - Wikipedia

Wehda Street airstrikes - Wikipedia

 

I'm sorry, I'm not prepared to accept an analogy between victims of a Holocaust ( and systemic, long historic and contemporary discrimination  outside that lens) seeking refuge in a homeland as analogous to Putin directing his military to blast Mariupol into non-existence. 

 

[fairfarmhand]

17 minutes ago, Melissa Louise said:

I'm sorry, I'm not prepared to accept an analogy between victims of a Holocaust ( and systemic, long historic and contemporary discrimination  outside that lens) seeking refuge in a homeland as analogous to Putin directing his military to blast Mariupol into non-existence. 

 

Nor am I.

and yet this war is still horrendous. 
 

it’s not the same and it’s still horrendous. Both are true.

[Melissa Louise]

17 minutes ago, fairfarmhand said:

Nor am I.

and yet this war is still horrendous. 
 

it’s not the same and it’s still horrendous. Both are true.

All war is horrendous. 

Blaming 'Israel' aka Jews and positing 'Israel' aka Jews as the Putin/Hitlerian equivalent is just incredibly off. 

Describe a nation's sins as they are, without recourse to anti-Jewish racism, is all I have to say. It's absolutely possible to do so without making an analogy with Putin. 

My objection is to the analogy, not to the rights of Palestinians. 

 

[fairfarmhand]

1 minute ago, Melissa Louise said:

All war is horrendous. 

Blaming 'Israel' aka Jews and positing 'Israel' aka Jews as the Putin/Hitlerian equivalent is just incredibly off. 

Describe a nation's sins as they are, without recourse to anti-Jewish racism, is all I have to say. It's absolutely possible to do so without making an analogy with Putin. 

My objection is to the analogy, not to the rights of Palestinians. 

 

Exactly.

[AnotherNewName]

6 hours ago, Melissa Louise said:

I'm sorry, I'm not prepared to accept an analogy between victims of a Holocaust ( and systemic, long historic and contemporary discrimination  outside that lens) seeking refuge in a homeland as analogous to Putin directing his military to blast Mariupol into non-existence. 

 

You know that the takeover of Palestinian lands started before the Holocaust, right?

[Ausmumof3]

7 hours ago, AnotherNewName said:

You know that the takeover of Palestinian lands started before the Holocaust, right?

Mistreatment of Jewish people also started before the holocaust.

[Melissa Louise]

22 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Mistreatment of Jewish people also started before the holocaust.

Long, long history of anti-Semitism, well preceding the 20th C. 

[Pam in CT]

(That this thread about Russia's unprovoked invasion of Ukraine has turned to a debate about Israel is *literally* doing Putin's propaganda work for him.)

 

President Biden is off to Poland. The agenda has not been clearly or publicly disclosed, but there are somewhat plausible rumors floating around that Poland -- whose prime minister was among those who went to Kyiv to meet with Zelensky last week; and which is deeply concerned about Russia taking control of the sovereign country next door -- is proposing something along these lines:

Biden has consistently said no NATO forces into Ukraine, as recently as yesterday. But he's also said more support of various kinds to NATO partners is necessary. So presumably somewhere in that space, possibly how NATO can backfill equipment and forces that free capacity of non-NATO concerned parties to get into Ukraine, is what is on that table.

[Carol in Cal.]

Biden also, IIRC, objected to having a NATO summit at all when it was called for a week ago.  I suspect (and fear) that he is going to try to stop NATO allies from taking action in defense of Ukraine.  

[Pam in CT]

re threading a needle with a teeny tiny hole...

9 minutes ago, Carol in Cal. said:

Biden also, IIRC, objected to having a NATO summit at all when it was called for a week ago.  I suspect (and fear) that he is going to try to stop NATO allies from taking action in defense of Ukraine.  

I suspect the sequence and symbolism of where the respective meetings are taking place has been very carefully chosen. First Brussels, with all NATO partners; then to Poland, to meet with Duda and other border nation leaders, the full roster of which seems not yet fully public.

The NYT full-width front page headline currently reads:

Quote

NATO Plans to Ramp Up Forces on Eastern Flank

 

With this on the top left column

Quote

...President Biden is set to land in Brussels on Wednesday evening and is expected to announce sanctions on Russian lawmakers before meeting with NATO allies and the European Union. He will then travel to Poland later in the week, a trip suffused with symbolism as anxious allies in Eastern and Central Europe fear the Russian leader’s efforts to reclaim a sphere of influence lost at the end of the Cold War.

In a sign that this effort was already underway, NATO’s chief, Jens Stoltenberg, said on Wednesday that the alliance would double the number of battlegroups in its eastern flank by deploying four new battlegroups in Bulgaria, Hungary, Romania and Slovakia, a significant bolstering of NATO’s presence in the region...

 

[Carol in Cal.]

Right.  No direct action.

[Spy Car]

12 minutes ago, Carol in Cal. said:

Right.  No direct action.

Which is the smart move. The massive supply of weapons to Ukraine from the allies in combination with Ukrainian competence and bravery has turned the tide of this invasion.

Sparking a nuclear conflagration would be a massive mistake, especially as Putin's forces have literally been decimated, with worse to come for them.

The Ukrainian counteroffensive is in full effect and cutting the Russian lines.

.Bill

 

 

[Faith-manor]

1 minute ago, Spy Car said:

Which is the smart move. The massive supply of weapons to Ukraine from the allies in combination with Ukrainian competence and bravery has turned the tide of this invasion.

Sparking a nuclear conflagration would be a massive mistake, especially as Putin's forces have literally been decimated, with worse to come for them.

The Ukrainian counteroffensive is in full effect and cutting the Russian lines.

.Bill

 

 

Sadly, though I think we also need to consider that if he loses, or if backed into a corner with major concessions the only way out, he is just unstable and narcissistic enough to consider the use of a short range, tactical nuke or meltdown one of the reactors he has seized. He does not appear to give 5c for the lives of his own, and has no morals about how many non-Russians he takes down just so long as he can kill Ukrainians with impunity. There was so much optimism about how quick it would end because sanctions. We are a month in, and he is revenge bombing Mariupol into oblivion. There was so much optimism that there were certain things Russian foot soldiers would never do, and yet they did them in spades. There was so much optimism that his generals, his field officers, would not engage in x, y, z because either we counted on them to have some individual morals or the fact that they might have relatives, fellow Russians in these cities, and in exchange for that optimism hospitals, maternity wards, a theater full of children were bombed, humanitarian corridors shelled, and reports indicate Ukrainians are being deported to places unknown rumored to be concentration camps. War crime, after war crime, after war crime. He does not care that their economy has been crippled. He does not care who starves. He is pure evil.

So I don't think "staying out of it" militarily is any guarantee that Europe won't be dealing with radiation in the near future. And every single time we send more weapons, more aid, more anything, we risk that in his mind, this is enough for him to escalate to something even more frightening.

I really, deeply wish that someone would find a way to slip a bomb between his sheets as well as take out his entire inner circle of generals and strategists. I have no idea who might fill the power vacuum, but in a weakened state, the newbie might be more amenable to negotiation and withdrawl.

[Spy Car]

27 minutes ago, Faith-manor said:

Sadly, though I think we also need to consider that if he loses, or if backed into a corner with major concessions the only way out, he is just unstable and narcissistic enough to consider the use of a short range, tactical nuke or meltdown one of the reactors he has seized. He does not appear to give 5c for the lives of his own, and has no morals about how many non-Russians he takes down just so long as he can kill Ukrainians with impunity. There was so much optimism about how quick it would end because sanctions. We are a month in, and he is revenge bombing Mariupol into oblivion. There was so much optimism that there were certain things Russian foot soldiers would never do, and yet they did them in spades. There was so much optimism that his generals, his field officers, would not engage in x, y, z because either we counted on them to have some individual morals or the fact that they might have relatives, fellow Russians in these cities, and in exchange for that optimism hospitals, maternity wards, a theater full of children were bombed, humanitarian corridors shelled, and reports indicate Ukrainians are being deported to places unknown rumored to be concentration camps. War crime, after war crime, after war crime. He does not care that their economy has been crippled. He does not care who starves. He is pure evil.

So I don't think "staying out of it" militarily is any guarantee that Europe won't be dealing with radiation in the near future. And every single time we send more weapons, more aid, more anything, we risk that in his mind, this is enough for him to escalate to something even more frightening.

I really, deeply wish that someone would find a way to slip a bomb between his sheets as well as take out his entire inner circle of generals and strategists. I have no idea who might fill the power vacuum, but in a weakened state, the newbie might be more amenable to negotiation and withdrawl.

In my estimation absolutely nothing has changed in terms of what Russian soldiers will or will not do.

It has been clear from the outset that Putin's demoralized forces are not willing to engage in direct combat. The few exceptions have been wiped out.

What they will do is shell, bomb, and/or fire missiles from a distance. So they will kill and create rubble.

No credible analyst postulated that sanctions--which are deep and biting--would end this conflict overnight.

The weapons "we" (the free world) has provided have given the Ukrainian resistance exactly what they have needed to turn the tide of battle. This is going to be a very bad week for Putin's forces as the counterattack has now begun in earnest.

We are not "staying out of it." Not by a very long shot. The alliance is sharing intelligence, pumping in massive amount of well-chosen weapons systems and humanitarian aid, and is ratcheting up Putin's economic pain. 

We are "in this." Just not in a way that would almost certainly spin into a nuclear conflict, which is smart.

Seeing images of Mariupol or malls in Kyiv smashed is deeply upsetting. But the people of Mariupol have not capitulated. Rather they've told Putin where to shove it.

To my mind, the alliance has walked just the right line. Putin's forces are being degraded. They are losing this war and it is going to get worse for them. At the same time we have not engaged in highly provocative escalations that would like incite a nuclear war.

Time to keep one's head.

Bill

 

 

 

 

 

Edited March 23, 2022 by Spy Car

[Pam in CT]

re no guarantees that Putin won't use the tools he has (nuclear / chemical / cyber) no matter whether NATO intervenes directly & militarily, refrains

29 minutes ago, Faith-manor said:

Sadly, though I think we also need to consider that if he loses, or if backed into a corner with major concessions the only way out, he is just unstable and narcissistic enough to consider the use of a short range, tactical nuke or meltdown one of the reactors he has seized. He does not appear to give 5c for the lives of his own, and has no morals about how many non-Russians he takes down just so long as he can kill Ukrainians with impunity. There was so much optimism about how quick it would end because sanctions. We are a month in, and he is revenge bombing Mariupol into oblivion. There was so much optimism that there were certain things Russian foot soldiers would never do, and yet they did them in spades. There was so much optimism that his generals, his field officers, would not engage in x, y, z because either we counted on them to have some individual morals or the fact that they might have relatives, fellow Russians in these cities, and in exchange for that optimism hospitals, maternity wards, a theater full of children were bombed, humanitarian corridors shelled, and reports indicate Ukrainians are being deported to places unknown rumored to be concentration camps. War crime, after war crime, after war crime. He does not care that their economy has been crippled. He does not care who starves. He is pure evil.

So I don't think "staying out of it" militarily is any guarantee that Europe won't be dealing with radiation in the near future. And every single time we send more weapons, more aid, more anything, we risk that in his mind, this is enough for him to escalate to something even more frightening.

I really, deeply wish that someone would find a way to slip a bomb between his sheets as well as take out his entire inner circle of generals and strategists. I have no idea who might fill the power vacuum, but in a weakened state, the newbie might be more amenable to negotiation and withdrawl.

You are right. There are no guarantees: a cornered animal will flail. There are no good options; only a slew of lousy ones.

I don't think anyone was optimistic a month ago that this ordeal would end "quickly" because sanctions; sanctions take time, and they bite first and hardest ordinary folk who are not responsible for the decisions taken by their totalitarian leaders. And the hope that Putin's browbeaten inner circle would stand up with  personal physical courage in the face of Putin's demonstrated willingness to have opponents *literally murdered* when leaders in our own midst are unwilling to risk a mean tweet lobbed in their direction was always rather... disingenuous? Misplaced? Unrealistic, in any event.

I'd hate to be President of the US, or leader of any other NATO nation, at this moment. I pray for them all.

 

[Jaybee]

5 minutes ago, Pam in CT said:

I'd hate to be President of the US, or leader of any other NATO nation, at this moment. I pray for them all.

 

I agree. There is not a "no risk" option here. No matter what decisions they make, history may say they decided wrongly--because we don't know what the outcomes will be. So I, too, pray for them to have wisdom and courage. 

[Melissa Louise]

The 'massive supply' of arms can and will run out - what then? France and Germany already being accused of being stingy with resources. 

I don't know how anyone can look at Mariupol's  devastation and not up the ante. Dragged in now or when more cities lie in ruins ?

How terrible to be one of those lives seen as worth paying for the 'greater good'. 

(Yes, I understand why. Glad there are people who can play the chess game. But people are starving in bombed out basements while we have the luxury of considering the next three moves. The targeting and  bombing of civilians - surely it must attract some extra penalty above and beyond that of military engagement with an opposing military? Hypothetical future charges of war crimes seem anaemic. Humanity is staggeringly cruel).

 

 

 

[Spy Car]

3 minutes ago, Melissa Louise said:

The 'massive supply' of arms can and will run out - what then? France and Germany already being accused of being stingy with resources. 

I don't know how anyone can look at Mariupol's  devastation and not up the ante. Dragged in now or when more cities lie in ruins ?

How terrible to be one of those lives seen as worth paying for the 'greater good'. 

(Yes, I understand why. Glad there are people who can play the chess game. But people are starving in bombed out basements while we have the luxury of considering the next three moves. The targeting and  bombing of civilians - surely it must attract some extra penalty above and beyond that of military engagement with an opposing military? Hypothetical future charges of war crimes seem anaemic. Humanity is staggeringly cruel).

 

 

 

You have zero basis in fact to declare that "massive supply' of arms can and will run out.

The reality is that "we" are upping the ante. Heck, "neutral" Sweden announced they would be adding another 5,000 NLAW anti-tank missiles just today.

I don't think your pronouncement here is remotely accurate.

"We" will supply Ukraine with all the weapons it need to defeat Putin not only because it is the right thing, but it is also in our collective best interests.

Same with helping rebuild Ukraine after this is over. All "western" leaders have signaled great support for that.

The people in Mariupol have not capitulated. Putin's demoralized conscripts can not defeat a motived free people who are defending their lives, their homes, and their futures.

The facts on the ground look very bad for Putin. His forces are exhausted, hungry, suffering frostbite, cut off, undersupplied, and disorganized. Beyond all that, the troops are aware that they were lied to and that they are on the wrong side of morality. Such forces can't win, and they are not winning.

What they can do for now (although time is growing thin) is to shell cities or fire missiles from a distance. Until their munitions run out and or they are eliminated.

In a world with nuclear weapons in the numbers Russia has, we'd better play "chess" and not checkers.

A nuclear conflagration would make Putin's war crimes (which are horrific) pale in comparison.

Bill

 

 

 

 

[Carol in Cal.]

It's already too late for the most preventative thing, which is a show of strength and determination in advance.  

I question the wisdom of repeatedly saying what we will not do.  That gives carte blanche and makes Ukraine pretty much fair game.  We need to never ever do that again, just for starters.

My view is that we are going to be on the ground fighting and risking The Big Stuff pretty quickly no matter whether we physically help Ukraine or not.  I want us helping them more directly at this point.  It's one of our presidents who said, "Naked aggression must be stopped."  He didn't add, "unless it's from Russia."  Respecting borders is one of the very basics of international law, and limiting this just to NATO countries is not something that we have done before.

[Sneezyone]

27 minutes ago, Spy Car said:

You have zero basis in fact to declare that "massive supply' of arms can and will run out.

The reality is that "we" are upping the ante. Heck, "neutral" Sweden announced they would be adding another 5,000 NLAW anti-tank missiles just today.

I don't think your pronouncement here is remotely accurate.

"We" will supply Ukraine with all the weapons it need to defeat Putin not only because it is the right thing, but it is also in our collective best interests.

Same with helping rebuild Ukraine after this is over. All "western" leaders have signaled great support for that.

The people in Mariupol have not capitulated. Putin's demoralized conscripts can not defeat a motived free people who are defending their lives, their homes, and their futures.

The facts on the ground look very bad for Putin. His forces are exhausted, hungry, suffering frostbite, cut off, undersupplied, and disorganized. Beyond all that, the troops are aware that they were lied to and that they are on the wrong side of morality. Such forces can't win, and they are not winning.

What they can do for now (although time is growing thin) is to shell cities or fire missiles from a distance. Until their munitions run out and or they are eliminated.

In a world with nuclear weapons in the numbers Russia has, we'd better play "chess" and not checkers.

A nuclear conflagration would make Putin's war crimes (which are horrific) pale in comparison.

Bill

 

 

 

 

Putin isn’t even using ground forces to shell several cities anymore. They’re firing from the Black Sea because they have no other choice.

[Spy Car]

1 hour ago, Carol in Cal. said:

It's already too late for the most preventative thing, which is a show of strength and determination in advance.  

I question the wisdom of repeatedly saying what we will not do.  That gives carte blanche and makes Ukraine pretty much fair game.  We need to never ever do that again, just for starters.

My view is that we are going to be on the ground fighting and risking The Big Stuff pretty quickly no matter whether we physically help Ukraine or not.  I want us helping them more directly at this point.  It's one of our presidents who said, "Naked aggression must be stopped."  He didn't add, "unless it's from Russia."  Respecting borders is one of the very basics of international law, and limiting this just to NATO countries is not something that we have done before.

That is some serious spin.

The current Administration, in fact, was way out front in publically warning that this invasion was coming and they released intelligence to support their conclusion and to frustrate Putin's plans.

Advance warning helped the Ukrainians prepare defenses and for NATO allies to start reinforcing Ukraine, which we have to a very remarkable degree.

The alliance has not been this strong in ages, which is especially remarkable given the damage cause in the recent past.

The Ukrainians have not been "fair game."

"We" (the entire free world) has come to the aid of Ukraine. They are defeating Putin's forces, who have already lost 10% (or more) of their strength and well-equipped and very highly motivated Ukrainian fighters are now closing in on demoralized conscripts.

Things could not be going much worse for Putin. That is due to resolve. Resolve on the part of Ukrainians, whose will not to be vanquished appears indomitable. And resolve among free world nations to supply Ukraine with the intelligence, weapons, and material support they need.

Urging NATO to become combatants--when the Ukrainians are quite capable of handling Putin's forces--is unwise and a course of action that could (and likely would) go very wrong.

Bill

 

Edited March 23, 2022 by Spy Car

[Spy Car]

12 minutes ago, Sneezyone said:

Putin isn’t even using ground forces to shell several cities anymore. They’re firing from the Black Sea because they have no other choice.

Putin's artillery position are being substantially degraded. It is going to be worse for them as this week goes by.

Russia can shoot off it highly expensive cruise missiles and use the "hyper-sonic" missile in a fashion that makes no strategic sense, but they can't replace these things.

Kleptocrats have left Putin with a shell of an army. Their boots are so bad that frostbite is rampant. Do Russian not understand winter weather needs? It is bizarre incompetence allied with criminality.

The Russian troops who are not suffering frostbite are those who've managed to get their hands on Ukrainian boots.

Bill

 

[Sneezyone]

1 minute ago, Spy Car said:

Putin's artillery position are being substantially degraded. It is going to be worse for them as this week goes by.

Russia can shoot off it highly expensive cruise missiles and use the "hyper-sonic" missile in a fashion that makes no strategic sense, but they can't replace these things.

Kleptocrats have left Putin with a shell of an army. Their boots are so bad that frostbite is rampant. Do Russian not understand winter weather needs? It is bizarre incompetence allied with criminality.

The Russian troops who are not suffering frostbite are those who've managed to get their hands on Ukrainian boots.

Bill

 

I think LARGE swaths of the U.S. electorate are wholly unconcerned with and ill-informed about what war actually means. All the saber rattling and chest beating sounds good until their sons and spouses are conscripted/dead. I think the same is true in Russia. I don't know anyone who thought sanctions were an immediate fix. I know plenty who are still holding their breath.

[Faith-manor]

1 hour ago, Sneezyone said:

I think LARGE swaths of the U.S. electorate are wholly unconcerned with and ill-informed about what war actually means. All the saber rattling and chest beating sounds good until their sons and spouses are conscripted/dead. I think the same is true in Russia. I don't know anyone who thought sanctions were an immediate fix. I know plenty who are still holding their breath.

Nearly all the locals I talk to thought sanctions would be an immediate end to the war, and a month in are now writing emails to Senators Stabenow and Peters demanding that the US use no more resources to fight "someone else's war" or even provide humanitarian aid because "not our circus, not our monkeys". It is all over social media here in my region. I doubt this is the only place with people who thought/think this. It hurts my heart to hear this crap, but what can I say? The comments sections following editorials at ABC news and other outlets would not lead one to believe that Americans have the appetite to see this through. Twenty years of war in Afghanistan only for the people to be back to square one - see today's announcement that the Taliban will not allow girls to attend school beyond sixth grade - and trillions of dollars down the tubes so Afghani people still end up living under tyranny with mind boggling human rights abuses has not exactly produced an electorate inclined to get into another boondoggle even if they feel bad for Ukrainians. My fear is that if this goes on for more than another month, the majority who support Ukraine will suddenly change their tune and with midterms coming up and politicians caring more about re-election than doing what is right, Ukraine will be left high and dry by this country.

Bill is a hell of a lot more optimistic than I am. For one thing, we really don't know exactly what is going on with Putin and his troops. Getting information from Ukrainian forces is not going to be accurate since they need to exaggerate their achievements as well as the condition of Russian troops in order to keep morale up. Same for the other side. Most of what is I have seen reported in the news quotes "Ukrainian Forces", " Ukrainian Military ", or an unidentified "US Defense official". Hmmmm....some flunky in the mail room at the Pentagon or an actual person in the know? That is anyone's guess. So I am not being taken in by the reports when actual facts, not speculation is verified by more than one source that are not Ukrainian officials or observers, or US State Department and Pentagon officials willing to be named. I would love to believe Bill is right! However, I am not convinced, and my heart is aching for the Ukrainian people. I just read an article about how some organizations are receiving clothing for refugees from the US and a bunch of it is just utter rags, total junk, and are having to haul it to animal shelters to be used for bedding. Americans donating sh#t. Sigh.

[Sneezyone]

2 hours ago, Faith-manor said:

Nearly all the locals I talk to thought sanctions would be an immediate end to the war, and a month in are now writing emails to Senators Stabenow and Peters demanding that the US use no more resources to fight "someone else's war" or even provide humanitarian aid because "not our circus, not our monkeys". It is all over social media here in my region. I doubt this is the only place with people who thought/think this. It hurts my heart to hear this crap, but what can I say? The comments sections following editorials at ABC news and other outlets would not lead one to believe that Americans have the appetite to see this through. Twenty years of war in Afghanistan only for the people to be back to square one - see today's announcement that the Taliban will not allow girls to attend school beyond sixth grade - and trillions of dollars down the tubes so Afghani people still end up living under tyranny with mind boggling human rights abuses has not exactly produced an electorate inclined to get into another boondoggle even if they feel bad for Ukrainians. My fear is that if this goes on for more than another month, the majority who support Ukraine will suddenly change their tune and with midterms coming up and politicians caring more about re-election than doing what is right, Ukraine will be left high and dry by this country.

Bill is a hell of a lot more optimistic than I am. For one thing, we really don't know exactly what is going on with Putin and his troops. Getting information from Ukrainian forces is not going to be accurate since they need to exaggerate their achievements as well as the condition of Russian troops in order to keep morale up. Same for the other side. Most of what is I have seen reported in the news quotes "Ukrainian Forces", " Ukrainian Military ", or an unidentified "US Defense official". Hmmmm....some flunky in the mail room at the Pentagon or an actual person in the know? That is anyone's guess. So I am not being taken in by the reports when actual facts, not speculation is verified by more than one source that are not Ukrainian officials or observers, or US State Department and Pentagon officials willing to be named. I would love to believe Bill is right! However, I am not convinced, and my heart is aching for the Ukrainian people. I just read an article about how some organizations are receiving clothing for refugees from the US and a bunch of it is just utter rags, total junk, and are having to haul it to animal shelters to be used for bedding. Americans donating sh#t. Sigh.

You have repeatedly decried the intelligence, knowledge and sophistication of those living around you. I do not doubt that is the case. I think it's very reflective of the nation as a whole. Most Americans can't find Grozny or Aleppo on a map let alone find any hypocrisy in demanding direct intervention for Mariupol when they were silent WRT those besieged cities.

While none of us, civilians, can know exactly what is going on, the reports on the ground and the U.S. intelligence reports that have been released are clear that the assistance and arms that have been supplied are helping and have helped. What Putin does in response is anyone's guess. Flunkies in the Pentagon or Truman building mail room are not in a position to speak on or know our foreign policy plans but they may be more knowledgeable, if they pay attention, than the vast majority of Americans.

NO ONE is supposed to be speaking right now. NO ONE in a position with first hand knowledge and high-level clearances. What you get is what you get. Attaching your name w/o explicit authorization to do so is a career killer. Do you want the info or the names? You can't have both. That's the case in any administration. What stands out to me is that people aren't leaking in an attempt to PREVENT the undermining of national security (as has been the case in recent years) but to inform, generally, without compromising our national security interests.

It must needs be said, again, Ukraine is not a party to any mutual defense treaty that we belong to. We agreed, only, not to attack them and we kept our end of the bargain. Russia did not. Just like Syria, it's *not* (yet) our fight although we have a significant interest in it and should help as much as we can. 

Folks need to be VERY clear about what they're asking for because, if/when the U.S. and NATO ever gets directly involved, Europe and possibly many parts of the U.S. will be leveled. It doesn't take nukes to do that. ICBMs are enough and we all have plenty.

Edited March 24, 2022 by Sneezyone

[mathnerd]

On 2/26/2022 at 9:04 PM, Roadrunner said:

Abramovich, or as he is called “Putin’s pocket,” is still not on a sanctioned list. Strange. 

he is supposedly a mediator between Putin and Zelensky and hence did not get sanctioned by the US ... I have been curious how he evaded the brunt of the sanctions and the secret is out now.

[Dianthus]

I have given up on reading news on this. So distressing. But someone showed me these photos in This article, and I thought I should share. Look at the train station. It looks like photos during the Holocaust. 😔 

[Sneezyone]

Nothing is the Holocaust but the Holocaust. War/conflict is hell, and many thousands die/have died/are dying through no fault of their own. Still, nothing is the Holocaust but the Holocaust. The only way to be and stay informed WRT current events is to read and be curious and follow along. Not doing that is a choice we can all make but it comes with both individual and societal consequences. Push through.

Edited March 24, 2022 by Sneezyone

[Melissa Louise]

https://sarahhaider.substack.com/p/the-news-is-bad-for-you-stop-reading?s=r

 

[Melissa Louise]

https://www.mcleanhospital.org/essential/how-much-news-too-much-news-good-mental-health

 

[Sneezyone]

5 minutes ago, Melissa Louise said:

https://sarahhaider.substack.com/p/the-news-is-bad-for-you-stop-reading?s=r

 

You forgot to add...if you don't read/follow it...STOP COMMENTING ON IT. You have nothing of import to add.

Edited March 24, 2022 by Sneezyone

[Melissa Louise]

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/da.22282

There are good reasons ppl may wish to moderate, reduce or remove their news consumption, and nobody should be shamed into maintaining it .

Books, documentaries and lectures are available as alternatives that allow us to be informed, at the same time as taking care of our nervous systems. 

[Sneezyone]

No one has mentioned this before in this thread but I am VERY uncomfortable with the use of Russian POWs in Ukranian propaganda videos. The Russian soldiers may well be making statements of their own volition but it's a clear violation the Geneva convention on the treatment of POWs. I wouldn't want any of our service members broadcast that way.

[Sneezyone]

Just now, Melissa Louise said:

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/da.22282

There are good reasons ppl may wish to moderate, reduce or remove their news consumption, and nobody should be shamed into maintaining it .

Books, documentaries and lectures are available as alternatives that allow us to be informed, at the same time as taking care of our nervous systems. 

All of which are excellent resources and helpful when discussing and analyzing lagging indicators, after the fact. Great for discussions of historical events, not real-time ones.

[Ausmumof3]

3 hours ago, Sneezyone said:

No one has mentioned this before in this thread but I am VERY uncomfortable with the use of Russian POWs in Ukranian propaganda videos. The Russian soldiers may well be making statements of their own volition but it's a clear violation the Geneva convention on the treatment of POWs. I wouldn't want any of our service members broadcast that way.

Those videos made me uncomfortable as well. It’s unclear from watching the videos whether they were under duress or force to make the statements they did. I don’t have a tonne of sympathy for them given what they’re doing, but some seem to be conscripts or not have much choice, or signed up without knowing what the mission would entail.

[Melissa in Australia]

4 hours ago, Sneezyone said:

No one has mentioned this before in this thread but I am VERY uncomfortable with the use of Russian POWs in Ukranian propaganda videos. The Russian soldiers may well be making statements of their own volition but it's a clear violation the Geneva convention on the treatment of POWs. I wouldn't want any of our service members broadcast that way.

I agree completely

[Dianthus]

6 hours ago, Sneezyone said:

Nothing is the Holocaust but the Holocaust. War/conflict is hell, and many thousands die/have died/are dying through no fault of their own. Still, nothing is the Holocaust but the Holocaust. The only way to be and stay informed WRT current events is to read and be curious and follow along. Not doing that is a choice we can all make but it comes with both individual and societal consequences. Push through.

I didn't say it was a holocaust. But photo of the people massed and led like cattle into train cars looks like the movement of people during the Holocaust. I have never seen that anywhere else.

Edited March 24, 2022 by Spirea