Omicron anecdata?

[TexasProud]

Again, this virus is just so strange. I would assume that my husband and I have the same strain of Covid. He had bad sore throat and body aches. Very little congestion.  His rapid test lights up IMMEDIATELY upon contact STILL after 7 days and he feels absolutely fine.  He never ran fever.

I had lots of coughing and congestion.  Fever only on the 2nd and 3rd day ( didn't have thermometer, so don't know how high, don't think it was too high) I did get a sore throat on 3rd day, but believed it was from the coughing. It is pretty much gone now. I always take nearly the full 15 minutes for my line to turn. 

[whitestavern]

8 hours ago, TexasProud said:

Again, this virus is just so strange. I would assume that my husband and I have the same strain of Covid. He had bad sore throat and body aches. Very little congestion.  His rapid test lights up IMMEDIATELY upon contact STILL after 7 days and he feels absolutely fine.  He never ran fever.

I had lots of coughing and congestion.  Fever only on the 2nd and 3rd day ( didn't have thermometer, so don't know how high, don't think it was too high) I did get a sore throat on 3rd day, but believed it was from the coughing. It is pretty much gone now. I always take nearly the full 15 minutes for my line to turn. 

Agree! It went through our house. DH and I were fever and achy. S threw up once and slept for 24 hours. No other symptoms. So odd! 

[mommyoffive]

[mommyoffive]

Biden officials push to offer second booster shot to all adults - The Washington Post

[mommyoffive]

Nationwide positivity rate is over 40%, and I doubt people are reporting all the home tests too.

[Jean in Newcastle]

6 minutes ago, mommyoffive said:

Biden officials push to offer second booster shot to all adults - The Washington Post

So is it helpful with the newest variant that is going around?  I am confused by the coverage on the newest variant. 

(I actually got my second booster yesterday.  My doctor really thought that it would be wise for me to have.  But I wonder if it's really protecting me much.) 

[mommyoffive]

Some older maps if anyone is interested

[mommyoffive]

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Update: FDA Recommends Inclusion of Omicron BA.4/5 Component for COVID-19 Vaccine Booster Doses | FDA

[mommyoffive]

[KSera]

37 minutes ago, mommyoffive said:

I saw this where a data person has made new maps where the red areas are further graded into basically high, super high, crazy high, since almost the whole country is red on the current maps. 

From

 

[mommyoffive]

I just recovered from BA.2. Can I get BA.4/5? - ABC News (go.com)

[mommyoffive]

Pandemic fueled surge in superbug infections and deaths, CDC says (msn.com)

[popmom]

2 hours ago, Jean in Newcastle said:

So is it helpful with the newest variant that is going around?  I am confused by the coverage on the newest variant. 

(I actually got my second booster yesterday.  My doctor really thought that it would be wise for me to have.  But I wonder if it's really protecting me much.) 

I was waiting/hoping for a more variant specific vaccine this fall. I'm curious, too. From what I have read a second booster may keep you from dying or ICU, but that's about it. I'm basing this off my local hospital's stats. I hope someone else has better stats. If you have risk factors, it's clearly beneficial. I'm not sure about otherwise healthy individuals. 

[mommyoffive]

2 hours ago, Jean in Newcastle said:

So is it helpful with the newest variant that is going around?  I am confused by the coverage on the newest variant. 

(I actually got my second booster yesterday.  My doctor really thought that it would be wise for me to have.  But I wonder if it's really protecting me much.) 

I feel like it has been a guessing game every time it has been for someone in our house to get boosted.   Are you doing it at the right time or not?  Is a better vaccine coming?  Wasn't an Omicron one going to be out in March 2022?  Rates are high, but are they going higher?  Do it now and hope you can get another one in fall? But you don't even know if you can or not?  These are just the questions that go through my head when I am trying to decide to boost someone in the house.  I never know the right thing to do.  

[popmom]

On 7/11/2022 at 12:31 PM, TexasProud said:

Again, this virus is just so strange. I would assume that my husband and I have the same strain of Covid. He had bad sore throat and body aches. Very little congestion.  His rapid test lights up IMMEDIATELY upon contact STILL after 7 days and he feels absolutely fine.  He never ran fever.

I had lots of coughing and congestion.  Fever only on the 2nd and 3rd day ( didn't have thermometer, so don't know how high, don't think it was too high) I did get a sore throat on 3rd day, but believed it was from the coughing. It is pretty much gone now. I always take nearly the full 15 minutes for my line to turn. 

glad to hear the rapid tests are picking it up. My dd worked a day camp at our church last week, and all the (mostly) toddlers were sick by the end of the week as was my daughter. The toddlers were running fever of 100 or so--along with cold symptoms. Dd just has classic "bad summer cold" symptoms. I assumed it was COVID, but she has tested twice so far on day 2 and day 4. Both negative. Binax tests. Should I maker her test again?

[popmom]

25 minutes ago, mommyoffive said:

Pandemic fueled surge in superbug infections and deaths, CDC says (msn.com)

That article is horrifying.

"Of the roughly 6,000 U.S. hospitals, about 2,400 voluntarily submit monthly data on antibiotic use to the CDC, Srinivasan said; of those, about 1,100 are also providing data about resistant bugs.

“We don’t have the data because our surveillance systems weren’t able to even function to provide us that information during the pandemic,” Srinivasan said. “That should be every bit as alarming to people as the pathogens that went up. It’s just as alarming when you don’t know.”

[Mom_to3]

5 minutes ago, mommyoffive said:

I feel like it has been a guessing game every time it has been for someone in our house to get boosted.   Are you doing it at the right time or not?  Is a better vaccine coming?  Wasn't an Omicron one going to be out in March 2022?  Rates are high, but are they going higher?  Do it now and hope you can get another one in fall? But you don't even know if you can or not?  These are just the questions that go through my head when I am trying to decide to boost someone in the house.  I never know the right thing to do.  

I find the timing of this very odd. Some people under 50 have been begging for boosters for months. 2 weeks ago the FDA finally recommends an updated booster for fall, which should be available Oct/Nov (not sure I trust the timeline, as they originally promised us Omicron shots in March), but the government does not have enough funds to buy updated vaccines for everyone. By telling people to get original boosters (probably about to expire) now in July and August, these people will almost surely be ineligible for another booster for probably 6 months or so at least - which is convenient: They won't be able to complain in October (3 months after their last booster) that they are left out of the Omicron booster campaign. Am I wrong to think that this is a policy decision rather than a scientific one? I am so sad that I don't trust anything that our government says about covid anymore...

[KSera]

52 minutes ago, mommyoffive said:

I feel like it has been a guessing game every time it has been for someone in our house to get boosted.   Are you doing it at the right time or not?  Is a better vaccine coming?  Wasn't an Omicron one going to be out in March 2022?  Rates are high, but are they going higher?  Do it now and hope you can get another one in fall? But you don't even know if you can or not?  These are just the questions that go through my head when I am trying to decide to boost someone in the house.  I never know the right thing to do.  

This, especially the bolded. I’ve been waiting to be eligible, but I’d much rather have the updated, so I haven’t been too bothered about not being eligible yet. But now,  if I’m eligible two weeks from now, do I get it and risk being too close to my booster to be able to get the updated one in the fall?  I will be way more exposed in the fall that I am over summer, so waiting closer till fall makes sense for me. But at this rate it doesn’t appear the new ones will be ready for the beginning of fall.

28 minutes ago, Mom_to3 said:

I find the timing of this very odd. Some people under 50 have been begging for boosters for months. 2 weeks ago the FDA finally recommends an updated booster for fall, which should be available Oct/Nov (not sure I trust the timeline, as they originally promised us Omicron shots in March), but the government does not have enough funds to buy updated vaccines for everyone. By telling people to get original boosters (probably about to expire) now in July and August, these people will almost surely be ineligible for another booster for probably 6 months or so at least - which is convenient: They won't be able to complain in October (3 months after their last booster) that they are left out of the Omicron booster campaign. Am I wrong to think that this is a policy decision rather than a scientific one? I am so sad that I don't trust anything that our government says about covid anymore...

That’s a concerning, but not at all too far out there line of thinking. Perhaps they’re going to make older people eligible for the new ones and younger people will only be able to get the old ones? Which, if the newer ones do better at stopping the spread, is not going to be as helpful for that purpose since that is largely driven by younger people.

[kbutton]

3 hours ago, KSera said:

I saw this where a data person has made new maps where the red areas are further graded into basically high, super high, crazy high, since almost the whole country is red on the current maps.

I can't find a way to click on my county--it's no at the edge of the map, so the popup comes up immediately and covers the whole screen for a county that is "on the way" to mine as I try to move my cursor. The popup covers the map, so I can't scroll over it without scrolling off the map. Very clunky. Love the idea though, and I can see the general colors, just not read any of the details.

[mommyoffive]

3 hours ago, KSera said:

This, especially the bolded. I’ve been waiting to be eligible, but I’d much rather have the updated, so I haven’t been too bothered about not being eligible yet. But now,  if I’m eligible two weeks from now, do I get it and risk being too close to my booster to be able to get the updated one in the fall?  I will be way more exposed in the fall that I am over summer, so waiting closer till fall makes sense for me. But at this rate it doesn’t appear the new ones will be ready for the beginning of fall.

That’s a concerning, but not at all too far out there line of thinking. Perhaps they’re going to make older people eligible for the new ones and younger people will only be able to get the old ones? Which, if the newer ones do better at stopping the spread, is not going to be as helpful for that purpose since that is largely driven by younger people.

Yep me too.  I have heard lots of people just skirting the if you qualify for it or not and just getting it.  We have a lot more exposure over the summer vs fall, but still.   We will have plenty of exposure in fall just because everyone around us is done.  Dh's work doesn't have a mask rule anymore.  And I just would think it is going to spike again in fall where we live.  

[mommyoffive]

3 hours ago, Mom_to3 said:

I find the timing of this very odd. Some people under 50 have been begging for boosters for months. 2 weeks ago the FDA finally recommends an updated booster for fall, which should be available Oct/Nov (not sure I trust the timeline, as they originally promised us Omicron shots in March), but the government does not have enough funds to buy updated vaccines for everyone. By telling people to get original boosters (probably about to expire) now in July and August, these people will almost surely be ineligible for another booster for probably 6 months or so at least - which is convenient: They won't be able to complain in October (3 months after their last booster) that they are left out of the Omicron booster campaign. Am I wrong to think that this is a policy decision rather than a scientific one? I am so sad that I don't trust anything that our government says about covid anymore...

Yeah, this just makes me more indecisive about making a choice on when to get them.  I hate trying to make Covid choices.

[Ausmumof3]

4 minutes ago, mommyoffive said:

Yeah, this just makes me more indecisive about making a choice on when to get them.  I hate trying to make Covid choices.

Same boat here. There’s actually a clinical trial running here for an omicron specific booster too but I guess I wouldn’t know if I got placebo. I could go get a booster today if I wanted and I’m half tempted because of the spike we’re having. 

[mommyoffive]

BA.5 is here. Time to ride the wave. - by Katelyn Jetelina (substack.com)

 

If you’re over 50 years old, get your booster.

 

If you don’t have your first booster, it’s beyond time. If you don’t have your second booster, get one now. Seriously. Schedule your appointment here. Do not delay. You will be able to get an Omicron booster this fall even if you get boosted now.

Another booster now will not only prevent infection but will prevent severe disease. In the U.S., adults aged 50 and older with two booster doses had 4 times lower risk of dying from COVID-19, compared to people who received one booster dose.

 

Those younger than 50 years will also soon be eligible for a second booster. If you have multiple comorbidities or work at a high exposure occupation, I think it makes sense to get a second booster now. If you’re young, healthy, and/or had a previous infection (hybrid immunity), it makes sense to wait for an Omicron booster in the fall. I, personally, will wait for my second booster. Keep in mind, protection against infection can be nil if it’s been a while since infection and/or last vaccination. You will especially need to have other layers of protection while waiting for that Omicron booster.

 

 

 

Do not use the CDC community levels for masking.

 

To know when to wear a mask, don’t rely on the CDC Community Levels map. This tells us when to take collective action so the hospitals don’t surge. According to this map (first figure below), 21% of people should mask. This does not tell us when to wear a mask for individual protection. The old CDC transmission map is painted red (which doesn’t even take into account under-reporting) and shows 98% of Americans should wear a mask in crowded, indoor spaces if they don’t want to get sick. Transmission is high across the states and will get higher.

 

 

If you have symptoms, there are a few things to keep in mind:

• Antigen tests are great at detecting highly infectious people. You can expect the average antigen test to catch 78% to 97% of cases in the first week of symptoms.

• False negatives are more common at the beginning of infection, especially with Omicron. If you have any symptoms, do not trust a negative test. Assume you have COVID19 and re-test in 24-48 hours. It will likely turn positive given the high transmission rates right now.

• Antigen tests are very good at telling you when you’re not infectious anymore (very few false positives). If at all possible, leave isolation only once your antigen test is negative. We see strong evidence (here, here) that an Omicron infection lasts, on average, 8-10 days. Some people will be infectious for less, and some will be infectious for more. You won’t know unless you test. Some people can’t stay in isolation that long (need to work and/or employers won’t allow longer isolation, given the CDC guidance saying you can leave isolation after 5 days). If this is the case, wear a good mask once you leave isolation.

• If you take Paxlovid, an estimated 5-10% people rebound. (Read more about rebounding here.) If you test negative after Paxlovid, continue to test for another couple of days. If you turn positive again, assume you’re infectious again until you turn negative.

If you use antigen tests before seeing someone vulnerable, keep the following in mind:

• If you have the virus and are asymptomatic, you can expect the average antigen test to catch 44% to 70% of cases. This is good but not perfect.

• Be sure to conduct cadence testing: test 48 hours before the event and again the morning of. If they are both negative, I would feel comfortable proceeding.

Edited July 13, 2022 by mommyoffive

[Longtime Lurker]

 

18 hours ago, KSera said:

This, especially the bolded. I’ve been waiting to be eligible, but I’d much rather have the updated, so I haven’t been too bothered about not being eligible yet. But now,  if I’m eligible two weeks from now, do I get it and risk being too close to my booster to be able to get the updated one in the fall?

 

20 minutes ago, mommyoffive said:

BA.5 is here. Time to ride the wave. - by Katelyn Jetelina (substack.com)

 

If you’re over 50 years old, get your booster.

 

If you don’t have your first booster, it’s beyond time. If you don’t have your second booster, get one now. Seriously. Schedule your appointment here. Do not delay. You will be able to get an Omicron booster this fall even if you get boosted now.

 

I am wondering about timing as well. I am 50 and thus eligible for a second booster. I was planning to get it in May but got covid instead 😞 I was told to wait 90 days. So I will be eligible at the beginning of August, which is good timing as I go back to work (in a high school) on the 22nd. I was wondering about waiting for an omicron-specific booster, but now I am thinking I will get the regular one as soon as I am eligible. It sounds like I will still be eligible for the new one. However, I hope I don't have to wait 6 more months. This is tricky, but the last time I waited (May) I regretted it. I feel like I should take the sure things when I can rather than wait for a maybe. But I am interested to hear what others in this position are doing.

https://news.wttw.com/2022/07/12/white-house-urges-caution-covid-variants-pushes-boosters

“Let me be clear, if you get vaccinated today, you’re not going to be ineligible to get the variants specific vaccine, as we get into the later part of fall and winter,” Jha said. “So, this is not a trade off, we’ve got plenty. It’s a great way to protect yourself.”

 

[KSera]

24 minutes ago, Longtime Lurker said:

“Let me be clear, if you get vaccinated today, you’re not going to be ineligible to get the variants specific vaccine, as we get into the later part of fall and winter,” Jha said. “So, this is not a trade off, we’ve got plenty. It’s a great way to protect yourself.”

Hmmm. Reading his quote in context, I think I’m taking it to mean that if you get the booster today, then in four or five months depending on if you’re over 50 or under, it will be still late fall or winter and you’ll be able to get the omicron one then. So then for me, it comes down to when will they be available to people. If they’re not going to be available until November anyway, then I would want to get boosted now. If they’ll be available to eligible people in September, I would choose to skip my second booster now so that I could have the omicron one in September. I am feeling like the chance is high now that they are going back to test a BA 4/5 specific booster that it’s going to be deep in the fall before it’s ready. I just wish we had some clear dates for all this to make decisions with.

[Longtime Lurker]

19 minutes ago, KSera said:

Hmmm. Reading his quote in context, I think I’m taking it to mean that if you get the booster today, then in four or five months depending on if you’re over 50 or under, it will be still late fall or winter and you’ll be able to get the omicron one then. So then for me, it comes down to when will they be available to people. If they’re not going to be available until November anyway, then I would want to get boosted now. If they’ll be available to eligible people in September, I would choose to skip my second booster now so that I could have the omicron one in September. I am feeling like the chance is high now that they are going back to test a BA 4/5 specific booster that it’s going to be deep in the fall before it’s ready. I just wish we had some clear dates for all this to make decisions with.

Right, I wish we knew when it would be available. That would make the decision easier. Although I guess having a crystal ball would make every life decision easier 🙂 I am leaning towards taking the sure thing in August and then hoping I can get another in late fall. 

Another question. I have had three Pfizers (booster #1 was at the end of September 2021). Would it make sense to get a Moderna this time? I am talking about if I get my second booster in August, not the omicron-specific one.

[KSera]

8 minutes ago, Longtime Lurker said:

Another question. I have had three Pfizers (booster #1 was at the end of September 2021). Would it make sense to get a Moderna this time? I am talking about if I get my second booster in August, not the omicron-specific one.

That would be an easy answer for me personally; I would definitely get Moderna if all my others had been Pfizer. There seems to be an advantage to mixing vaccines, even if they are both mRNA. And then you get a bigger dose with Moderna as well.

[HSmomof2]

1 hour ago, Longtime Lurker said:

 

 

I am wondering about timing as well. I am 50 and thus eligible for a second booster. I was planning to get it in May but got covid instead 😞 I was told to wait 90 days. So I will be eligible at the beginning of August, which is good timing as I go back to work (in a high school) on the 22nd. I was wondering about waiting for an omicron-specific booster, but now I am thinking I will get the regular one as soon as I am eligible. It sounds like I will still be eligible for the new one. However, I hope I don't have to wait 6 more months. This is tricky, but the last time I waited (May) I regretted it. I feel like I should take the sure things when I can rather than wait for a maybe. But I am interested to hear what others in this position are doing.

https://news.wttw.com/2022/07/12/white-house-urges-caution-covid-variants-pushes-boosters

“Let me be clear, if you get vaccinated today, you’re not going to be ineligible to get the variants specific vaccine, as we get into the later part of fall and winter,” Jha said. “So, this is not a trade off, we’ve got plenty. It’s a great way to protect yourself.”

 

I’m also having a hard time deciding what to do about a second booster. I’ll be 50 next month. I just had Covid in June, so planned to wait 90 days and hoped a new vaccine would be available in early fall. We’re also traveling in September…..

And for anyone who remembers my ongoing positive Rapid tests……I finally tested negative today a rapid test……day 29 since first positive! 😳  
 

ETA: My symptoms were gone by about day 10. I have some fatigue and brain fog, but also have Hashimotos and fibromyalgia….can’t really tell if it’s different than my normal. 

Edited July 13, 2022 by HSmomof2

[mommyoffive]

2 minutes ago, HSmomof2 said:

I’m also having a hard time deciding what to do about a second booster. I’ll be 50 next month. I just had Covid in June, so planned to wait 90 days and hoped a new vaccine would be available in early fall. We’re also traveling in September…..

And for anyone who remembers my ongoing positive Rapid tests……I finally tested negative today a rapid test……day 29 since first positive! 😳

Holy cow.  Thanks for updating us.  

[mommyoffive]

Just saw this site and I don't think I have ever been on it before

covariants.org

[Corraleno]

47 minutes ago, Longtime Lurker said:

Right, I wish we knew when it would be available. That would make the decision easier. Although I guess having a crystal ball would make every life decision easier 🙂 I am leaning towards taking the sure thing in August and then hoping I can get another in late fall. 

Another question. I have had three Pfizers (booster #1 was at the end of September 2021). Would it make sense to get a Moderna this time? I am talking about if I get my second booster in August, not the omicron-specific one.

My first 2 shots were Pfizer and I chose Moderna for both boosters. There is some evidence that the two vaccines elicit slightly different responses from the immune system, suggesting that mixing doses may give broader protection. And even if that weren't true, I'd still get Moderna for the larger dose.

I would not put it off in the hope of having an omicron-specific booster by fall. I think the best-case estimates were that there could be one available in October, but I think November is more likely, and the first doses will likely go to over 65s, so it could be December by the time others are eligible. And frankly by that time we may be dealing with a completely different variant and a BA4 vaccine will not be any more effective than the one we have now, so I'd go for the bird-in-the-hand that at least reduces risk of hospitalization and death. 

[sassenach]

21 hours ago, popmom said:

glad to hear the rapid tests are picking it up. My dd worked a day camp at our church last week, and all the (mostly) toddlers were sick by the end of the week as was my daughter. The toddlers were running fever of 100 or so--along with cold symptoms. Dd just has classic "bad summer cold" symptoms. I assumed it was COVID, but she has tested twice so far on day 2 and day 4. Both negative. Binax tests. Should I maker her test again?

I still haven’t gotten a pos antigen but PCR was pos

[regentrude]

22 minutes ago, Corraleno said:

I would not put it off in the hope of having an omicron-specific booster by fall. I think the best-case estimates were that there could be one available in October, but I think November is more likely, and the first doses will likely go to over 65s, so it could be December by the time others are eligible. And frankly by that time we may be dealing with a completely different variant and a BA4 vaccine will not be any more effective than the one we have now, so I'd go for the bird-in-the-hand that at least reduces risk of hospitalization and death. 

That was our thinking.  We got the 4th booster recently since we will be traveling and visiting elderly family. So we decided to maximize our protection NOW, however fleeting that may be.

Who knows how the virus has mutated in the fall.

[KSera]

49 minutes ago, Corraleno said:

I would not put it off in the hope of having an omicron-specific booster by fall. I think the best-case estimates were that there could be one available in October, but I think November is more likely, and the first doses will likely go to over 65s, so it could be December by the time others are eligible. And frankly by that time we may be dealing with a completely different variant and a BA4 vaccine will not be any more effective than the one we have now, so I'd go for the bird-in-the-hand that at least reduces risk of hospitalization and death. 

This is good rationale and I think you’re making a good case for me to go ahead with the booster when I can— particularly since I expect you’re right that they will make the vaccine available in stages and I’m going to be down the line anyway. I still wish they were going to go ahead and offer the PA 1/2 bivalent that Moderno already has ready and tested. Those could be in arms by September, and since it’s continuing to mutate, it’s possible those would be better or just as good anyway. I’m thinking especially since one of the new offshoots is a descendent from BA2, I wonder how well a BA 4/5 variation would protect against that one. I would get the Moderna bivalent BA 1/2 today, if I could (though the way things are going, I’m concerned that Pfizer will be our only choice since the government seems to keep preferring to contract with them, even when their trial results aren’t as good as Moderna’s with some of these). 

[TexasProud]

2 hours ago, HSmomof2 said:

..

And for anyone who remembers my ongoing positive Rapid tests……I finally tested negative today a rapid test……day 29 since first positive! 😳  
 

 

Hive, so does this really mean she was contagious for all 29 days?  My husband and I are at a point of disagreement as I think we need to test negative no matter how many days it takes. He has read and says experts do not agree with that. 

[ktgrok]

4 minutes ago, TexasProud said:

Hive, so does this really mean she was contagious for all 29 days?  My husband and I are at a point of disagreement as I think we need to test negative no matter how many days it takes. He has read and says experts do not agree with that. 

We can't know for sure, but likely, yes. 

It takes a significant amount of virus to test positive on a rapid, and with that much there, it is very very unlikely to simply be fragments of dead virus. 

PCR tests on the other hand CAN pick up even fragments of dead virus, and therefore do not indicate that a person still has active infection. 

[TexasProud]

Just now, ktgrok said:

We can't know for sure, but likely, yes. 

It takes a significant amount of virus to test positive on a rapid, and with that much there, it is very very unlikely to simply be fragments of dead virus. 

PCR tests on the other hand CAN pick up even fragments of dead virus, and therefore do not indicate that a person still has active infection. 

I mean... that seems completely unsustainable. a month... 

[HSmomof2]

40 minutes ago, TexasProud said:

I mean... that seems completely unsustainable. a month... 

From what I’ve read, experts are not sure if it means infectiousness or not. Some believe the rapid tests could possibly detect a virus particle that is 90% complete, but would not be contagious. I’m sure we’ll know more over the next months/years on this topic. 
Thankfully I work from home, so I’ve still been able to work. I did isolate the first 2 weeks and didn’t go anywhere. After my symptoms were resolved, I did have to pick up groceries a couple times, but just did curbside, masked, stayed in the car with windows open. I also had to help my parents once, but only saw them outside and masked. That was more than 10 days ago now, and they’re fine. The rest of my immediate family had it at the same time I did, we were all only mildly sick, recovered, and they tested negative by day 7 at the latest. I just hope we had BA4/5, so I’ll be up to date until I can get a second booster. 

Edited July 13, 2022 by HSmomof2

[Harriet Vane]

37 minutes ago, ktgrok said:

We can't know for sure, but likely, yes. 

It takes a significant amount of virus to test positive on a rapid, and with that much there, it is very very unlikely to simply be fragments of dead virus. 

PCR tests on the other hand CAN pick up even fragments of dead virus, and therefore do not indicate that a person still has active infection. 

Katelyn Jetelina has a fabulous explanation of this.

[ktgrok]

1 hour ago, TexasProud said:

I mean... that seems completely unsustainable. a month... 

Well, MOST people will be negative within 10 days. It is just that most doesn't mean all...there will be some statistical outliers that carry it for longer. Public policy is based on "most" not "all". 

 

[KSera]

2 hours ago, TexasProud said:

I mean... that seems completely unsustainable. a month... 

I just came from reading another study on this that indicated the same as said above, that they are still culturing viable, replicating virus from the late positives. It's possible some of them are not that, but also most people will not test positive 29 days. Most people can rely on whether they are negative at 8 days or 12 days or whatever as the indication they should not be contagious anymore. The fact that they know some of the variants have come from immune compromised people who have carried the virus for long periods of time, allowing it to acquire increasing mutations as it replicated in their body before being transmitted to other people tells us this does happen after a long time in some people. I read one case report last week where someone tested positive for a year and had three different variants in their body by the end of that time, all derived from the original infecting strain 😥.

I don't know what someone does in that case, honestly. I mean, on the one hand, it seems impossible and unfair for someone to stay isolated that long, and especially if they need to leave home to go to a job, but on the other, if we had a way to support people in those circumstances, perhaps it might help cut down on immune-escaping variants? I don't know how that could be practically doable though.

[KSera]

On another note, I also just read a study on maternal vaccination impact on preventing serious covid in their infants after birth. Even with Omicron, maternal vaccination during pregnancy is still protecting babies from hospitalization. The later in pregnancy the most recent dose was, the more protective. They didn't have enough infant deaths in this study to draw conclusions on that (thankfully) but there were two babies who died of covid in the study, both born to unvaccinated mothers.

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2204399

This is one of those things that makes me really upset about anti-vaxers convincing people it's terribly dangerous for them to get vaccinated while pregnant. That is a super prevalent sentiment on social media, and they are harming babies by spreading that around when it's the opposite of the truth 😕.

[alisoncooks]

On 7/11/2022 at 1:31 PM, TexasProud said:

Again, this virus is just so strange. I would assume that my husband and I have the same strain of Covid. He had bad sore throat and body aches. Very little congestion.  His rapid test lights up IMMEDIATELY upon contact STILL after 7 days and he feels absolutely fine.  He never ran fever.

I had lots of coughing and congestion.  Fever only on the 2nd and 3rd day ( didn't have thermometer, so don't know how high, don't think it was too high) I did get a sore throat on 3rd day, but believed it was from the coughing. It is pretty much gone now. I always take nearly the full 15 minutes for my line to turn. 

This is *exactly* how it played out with my two daughters, symptoms AND timelines. So weird!

[wathe]

6 hours ago, Corraleno said:

 

I would not put it off in the hope of having an omicron-specific booster by fall. I think the best-case estimates were that there could be one available in October, but I think November is more likely, and the first doses will likely go to over 65s, so it could be December by the time others are eligible. And frankly by that time we may be dealing with a completely different variant and a BA4 vaccine will not be any more effective than the one we have now, so I'd go for the bird-in-the-hand that at least reduces risk of hospitalization and death. 

Exactly this.  

4th doses will become available to all adults in my province starting tomorrow.  I will be getting mine ASAP.

[HSmomof2]

1 hour ago, KSera said:

I just came from reading another study on this that indicated the same as said above, that they are still culturing viable, replicating virus from the late positives. It's possible some of them are not that, but also most people will not test positive 29 days. Most people can rely on whether they are negative at 8 days or 12 days or whatever as the indication they should not be contagious anymore. The fact that they know some of the variants have come from immune compromised people who have carried the virus for long periods of time, allowing it to acquire increasing mutations as it replicated in their body before being transmitted to other people tells us this does happen after a long time in some people. I read one case report last week where someone tested positive for a year and had three different variants in their body by the end of that time, all derived from the original infecting strain 😥.

I don't know what someone does in that case, honestly. I mean, on the one hand, it seems impossible and unfair for someone to stay isolated that long, and especially if they need to leave home to go to a job, but on the other, if we had a way to support people in those circumstances, perhaps it might help cut down on immune-escaping variants? I don't know how that could be practically doable though.

I would also guess there are more people that would test positive for a long time but don’t know it because they don’t test again after their first positive. I only continued testing because I have a lot of free tests available and was curious when I still tested positive at day 10….I’ve felt fine for a couple weeks with no symptoms. I’m also not sure I completely believe we really know that the rapid tests are showing actual contagiousness with Omicron, or there’s something lingering with this variant. Dh had worse symptoms than I did, particularly congestion and sore throat, and he never tested positive on a rapid test. He only got a positive PCR on day 4 of symptoms. I do have autoimmune disease, but am not considered immune compromised and don’t take immunosuppressants, so was not eligible for Paxlovid…..if anything, my immune system is overactive, though it may have played a role in testing positive for a long time. I also read the article about the person who tested positive for over a year, but was immune compromised from cancer treatment. It will be interesting to see how the research plays out over the next few years. 

[KSera]

14 minutes ago, HSmomof2 said:

I would also guess there are more people that would test positive for a long time but don’t know it because they don’t test again after their first positive. I only continued testing because I have a lot of free tests available and was curious when I still tested positive at day 10….I’ve felt fine for a couple weeks with no symptoms. I’m also not sure I completely believe we really know that the rapid tests are showing actual contagiousness with Omicron, or there’s something lingering with this variant.

I'm talking about from studies, where they are testing large numbers of people to see how long they stay positive. If that was common, it would shop up more frequently than it has in studies. They see it, but it's not typical.

As far as contagiousness, again, they have done studies where they actually culture the swab to see if it is live, replicable virus, and they are finding it is. That's unfortunate, but on the other hand, it's helpful that the home tests seem to give a pretty good idea about contagiousness once they turn positive. That's the caveat, in that it seems to take a number of days after a positive PCR to get a positive RAT. So, somemone may be contagious before the rapid is sensitive enough to pick it up, but the reverse seems at this point to be much less likely--if someone has enough virus to turn a rapid positive, they are more likely than not contagious.

eta: In the study where they inoculated healthy young adults with covid and then tested them every day and cultured every day, They all produced a negative rapid test within 0-2 days of the culture no longer growing live virus. So, it's possible to get a positive an average of a day or so after you stop being contagious, but you're only going to know in hindsight (after you test negative) how many days you are from a positive.

Edited July 13, 2022 by KSera

[wathe]

Further thoughts:

This pandemic has been an exercise in making decisions based on imperfect information right from the beginning, hasn't it?  We should all be used to it by now....... (but of course we aren't; uncertainty sucks.  Especially when the stakes are high)

The way I see it, a 4 th booster will provide some protection against the current variant now , and we are in a wave now. Definite reward, near-certainty.  At the expense maybe not qualifying for an omi-specific booster later,   that may or may not be available to me, and that may or may not be effective against whatever variant pops up next.  Boosting now is the safer choice, I think

Waiting for an Omi specific booster leaves me vulnerable now (certainty) and may not bring any future reward at all.  That's a poor bet, I think

Edited July 13, 2022 by wathe

[KSera]

Really nice piece out of New Zealand covering both masks and the rapid testing to end isolation issue:

Ministry urged to update mask and isolation advice

Quote

RAT results correlate very closely with infectiousness in the latter stages of an infection. And between 12 and 25 percent of Covid-19 cases are still infectious beyond seven days - so a week is a decent rule of thumb but doesn't suit everybody.

"Between 30 and 60 percent of people who are testing positive on a rapid antigen test are still infectious after that seven-day period. And of those who aren't still infectious but did test positive, they were still infectious yesterday," Emily Harvey, the co-lead of the Contagion Network modelling programme at Covid-19 Modelling Aotearoa, told Newsroom.

In other words, even after seven days of isolation, a positive test result could well mean you're still infectious. That's why experts like Harvey have advocated for a test-to-release policy, in which isolation ends once you test negative, in lieu of the seven-day isolation timeframe.

"If you shorten the minimum isolation period but require test-to-release - especially two negatives in a row - you can actually shorten the average isolation period without increasing onward risk," Harvey said.

This could let more people out of isolation sooner, while preventing others from going on to infect people because they were still infectious after seven days.

 

[mommyoffive]

FDA authorizes Novavax Covid-19 vaccine - STAT (statnews.com)

[mommyoffive]

Experts rue simple steps not taken before latest COVID surge (msn.com)