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wuhan - coronavirus

gardenmom5

By gardenmom5,
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lewelma
lewelma

DS got home 3 hours ago!  ❤️❤️

TravelingChris
TravelingChris

Update-  my youngest is not only short of breath, coughing, dizzy, nausaues, and with headache-  she is also confused.  I called our doctor and talked with him and she is going to be going to the ER.

J-rap
J-rap

Thought I'd post a pic of my dd, getting ready to spend another day in a coronavirus triage tent!  

TracyP

TracyP

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Widespread disinfectant spraying is ineffective and likely harmful according to WHO

https://amp.france24.com/en/20200516-spraying-disinfectants-can-be-harmful-says-who?__twitter_impression=true

I'm glad to see this. I couldn't tell if it was all for show or if some people actually thought that spraying the outside of buildings and streets would stop the spread. 🙄 Regardless I hope this brings the practice to an end or at least keeps it from happening in my area...

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DoraBora

DoraBora

Posted
Posted
21 hours ago, Where's Toto? said:

I think the percentage of positives as a percentage of total tests is probably the most useful number to see if there's actually an increase or not.   

But reporting an increase in positive tests doesn't seem like an artificial inflation.  Those people were still positive even if we didn't know it.   That's what's been driving me crazy all along - reports of positive tests but no information on what that's likely to mean to the population at large - how many people are actually getting tested so how many more are likely to be positive.  All along the practical information that we can actually get from the current test reporting has been crap.   

You're right.  It isn't an artificial inflation -- it's just a number. 

I'm right there with you.  It drives me up the wall that news agencies run headlines and stories about a state's decision to begin opening up as the cause of record increases in positive cases, without bothering to mention a significant increase in the number of tests administered.  It's alarmist and unhelpful.

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Pen

Pen

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Daily new cases for US for yesterday was below 20,000 again.  Hoping this trend will continue.

 

Me too.  

Though having it under 20,000 be good news is kind of depressing.

Not all that long ago both USA and Australia were officially at 19. Total. 

 

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Ausmumof3

Ausmumof3

Posted
Posted
30 minutes ago, DoraBora said:

You're right.  It isn't an artificial inflation -- it's just a number. 

I'm right there with you.  It drives me up the wall that news agencies run headlines and stories about a state's decision to begin opening up as the cause of record increases in positive cases, without bothering to mention a significant increase in the number of tests administered.  It's alarmist and unhelpful.

I guess no data from states without adequate testing is going to demonstrate whether lifting lockdowns causes spikes or not because you don’t have a reference point.  Italy are lifting restrictions a lot now so I guess we will observe the impact there.  

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Matryoshka

Matryoshka

Posted
Posted
53 minutes ago, DoraBora said:

You're right.  It isn't an artificial inflation -- it's just a number. 

I'm right there with you.  It drives me up the wall that news agencies run headlines and stories about a state's decision to begin opening up as the cause of record increases in positive cases, without bothering to mention a significant increase in the number of tests administered.  It's alarmist and unhelpful.

The numbers that don't lie are hospitalizations.  They have a lag, unfortunately, but number of hospitalizations should be fairly consistent related to the true number of cases regardless of how many people get tested, can't be double-counted.  And it really is that number we have to keep under control so as not to overwhelm the medical system.  The problem with the 2-3 week lag is that once you know there's a problem, it's a bit late.  So testing and contact tracing are still really important in keeping this under control.

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DoraBora

DoraBora

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Matryoshka said:

The numbers that don't lie are hospitalizations.  They have a lag, unfortunately, but number of hospitalizations should be fairly consistent related to the true number of cases regardless of how many people get tested, can't be double-counted.  And it really is that number we have to keep under control so as not to overwhelm the medical system.  The problem with the 2-3 week lag is that once you know there's a problem, it's a bit late.  So testing and contact tracing are still really important in keeping this under control.

That's true.  Here in Texas, the governor is watching both the positive test rates and hospitalizations.

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EmseB

EmseB

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, TCB said:

I wish I could see it but can't. Could someone sum it up?

It's a map of where a bunch of NYers moved to at the onset of the pandemic.

"In March, the United States Post Office received 56,000 mail-forwarding requests from New York City, more than double the monthly average. In April, the number of requests went up to 81,000, twice the number from a year earlier. Sixty percent of those new requests were for destinations outside the city."

In April the chart shows over 80,000 mail forward request.

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JadeOrchidSong

JadeOrchidSong

Posted
Posted (edited)
On 5/17/2020 at 4:45 PM, Ausmumof3 said:

https://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/2005/2005.06199.pdf
 

link to the paper 

Thank you for sharing this. Australia is leading an independent probe into the origin of this novel coronavirus, backed by 116 countries. This is absolutely essential if we want to understand this virus more. 

Edited by JadeOrchidSong
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Ausmumof3

Ausmumof3

Posted
Posted

https://mobile.abc.net.au/news/health/2020-05-19/coronavirus-doctor-ny-says-covid-like-multiple-diseases/12242026
 

covid 19 is like 3 different diseases.  The mild respiratory version, the severe disease with cytokine storm and blood clotting and most likely the Paediatric multisystem inflammatory syndrome.  
 

“Immune attack may explain both conditions

In this sense, paediatric multisystem inflammatory syndrome seems similar to severe COVID-19, in that it is the result of a disordered immune response, triggered by the virus.

But the timing and nature of the immune response is different in the two conditions (with different outcomes in terms of symptoms).

In severe COVID-19, which occurs in about 10 per cent of patients, the immune over-activation usually occurs eight to 10 days after symptoms begin.

In the children's syndrome, it seems the immune over-activation occurs either late in the course of infection, or after the virus has been cleared from the body. 

"These kids have escaped the symptoms of the acute infection but they may not have escaped the post-infectious reaction to the virus."

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JennyD

JennyD

Posted
Posted (edited)

 Interesting article about the origins of coronavirus in Israel.  Genomic sequencing suggests that (1) the US was by far the main source of infections despite accounting for only 30% of arrivals during the crisis, and (2) a small number of superspreaders were responsible for most infections.

 

Edited by JennyD
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Corraleno

Corraleno

Posted
Posted
26 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

https://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2020-05-19/covid-fatigue-one-of-worst-symptons-patients-say/12252602

 

17 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

https://mobile.abc.net.au/news/health/2020-05-19/coronavirus-doctor-ny-says-covid-like-multiple-diseases/12242026

 

I really wish all the "just let me catch it and get it over with" folks would read articles like this and really understand what this disease can do. So many people seem to think as long as they're not elderly or immunocompromised, they'll just get a bad cold and then they can go back to life as usual, because "quality of life" is more important than avoiding the disease. But how much will their "quality of life" change if they lose a child or spouse? Or if they end up with permanent heart or lung damage, or they lose a limb to blood clots, or they're paralyzed by a stroke? And even if they and all their loved ones escape death or permanent damage, and they're not left with massive medical debt from weeks in the hospital, even a "mild" case can make people really really sick, and it can last for months. 

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Ausmumof3

Ausmumof3

Posted
Posted

https://amp.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/may/18/lockdown-protests-spread-coronavirus-cellphone-data?CMP=share_btn_tw&__twitter_impression=true
 

Phone data indicates people travelled long distance for lockdown protests meaning they will possibly be spread events.  I’m not sure about the ethics of using data like this but seems like the results may be concerning.

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TracyP

TracyP

Posted
Posted
6 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

https://mobile.abc.net.au/news/health/2020-05-19/coronavirus-doctor-ny-says-covid-like-multiple-diseases/12242026
 

covid 19 is like 3 different diseases.  The mild respiratory version, the severe disease with cytokine storm and blood clotting and most likely the Paediatric multisystem inflammatory syndrome.  
 

“Immune attack may explain both conditions

In this sense, paediatric multisystem inflammatory syndrome seems similar to severe COVID-19, in that it is the result of a disordered immune response, triggered by the virus.

Ugh, this virus just sucks. I am glad to see that they are learning more about how it is attacking people. Hopefully that leads to better treatments. 

The pediatric aspect is troubling (assuming it is Covid related) these kids barely showed symptoms so it isn't like a different treatment would help. 🙁 I feel slightly better reading that it sounds extremely rare. Still, very troubling tho.

From the link:

The condition is much rare than severe COVID, and it is thought that children who develop it may have unusual genetic vulnerabilities.

"Only a very small number of kids who get COVID exposure will get this," Dr Giwani says.

"We do not have a good handle on what the number is but it's pretty clear it is extremely rare."

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Acadie

Acadie

Posted
Posted

Interesting article about problems with COVID data reporting in Georgia, including familiar issues like lag time and underresourced public health departments, along with such things as a bar graph where dates were not listed chronologically, but shuffled to show a downward trend in cases. 

“I have a hard time understanding how this happens without it being deliberate,” said State Rep. Jasmine Clark, D-Lilburn, who received her doctorate in microbiology and molecular genetics at Emory University. “Literally nowhere ever in any type of statistics would that be acceptable.”

https://www.ajc.com/news/state--regional-govt--politics/just-cuckoo-state-latest-data-mishap-causes-critics-cry-foul/182PpUvUX9XEF8vO11NVGO/

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Pen

Pen

Posted
Posted (edited)
 

“(CNN)The Navajo Nation has surpassed New York and New Jersey for the highest per-capita coronavirus infection rate in the US ...

The Navajo Nation, which spans parts of Arizona, New Mexico and Utah, reported a population of 173,667 on the 2010 census. As a result, with 4,002 cases, the Native American territory has 2,304.41 cases of Covid-19 per 100,000 people.

By contrast, New York state now has a rate of 1,806 cases per 100,000 ...”

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Ausmumof3

Ausmumof3

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, TracyP said:

Ugh, this virus just sucks. I am glad to see that they are learning more about how it is attacking people. Hopefully that leads to better treatments. 

The pediatric aspect is troubling (assuming it is Covid related) these kids barely showed symptoms so it isn't like a different treatment would help. 🙁 I feel slightly better reading that it sounds extremely rare. Still, very troubling tho.

From the link:

The condition is much rare than severe COVID, and it is thought that children who develop it may have unusual genetic vulnerabilities.

"Only a very small number of kids who get COVID exposure will get this," Dr Giwani says.

"We do not have a good handle on what the number is but it's pretty clear it is extremely rare."

If it relates to a kind of autoimmune or immune system over reaction I wonder if it’s likely to affect the small percentage of kids who also get impacted negatively by vaccines or something.  I really hope they can figure out what’s going on and if it even is covid related (seems likely given the prevalence in covid areas but then maybe a bit of confirmation bias going on too)

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73349

73349

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, TracyP said:

"Only a very small number of kids who get COVID exposure will get this," Dr Giwani says.

 

 

Slight correction, with due respect to the doctor: Only a very small percentage. The number will increase with cases, which will increase with exposure, so it is not going to remain small unless exposure is limited accordingly.

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73349

73349

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

If it relates to a kind of autoimmune or immune system over reaction I wonder if it’s likely to affect the small percentage of kids who also get impacted negatively by vaccines or something.  I really hope they can figure out what’s going on and if it even is covid related (seems likely given the prevalence in covid areas but then maybe a bit of confirmation bias going on too)

Oh, that would be terrible, if the same kids would be harmed whether they get the virus or a vaccine against it.

So far, doctors have not mentioned any correlation with previous vaccine reaction or autoimmune disorder (and there's no known association of the two).

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Pen

Pen

Posted
Posted

In my state, Oregon, the rate in American Indian / Native American groups isn’t horrible (~ 60 per 100,000 for local area tribes, higher, maybe double, if including Alaskan and Pacific Islanders) as in Navajo nation, but it is higher than the state average.  Part of that could be that over half the American Indian population of Oregon seems actually to be in the greater Portland area, which has the highest rates overall in state for all races. 

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Corraleno

Corraleno

Posted
Posted (edited)

CDC report released today on the outbreak at a church in Arkansas in March: 35 infected church members, who then spread it to 26 additional people in the community, with 4 deaths.

Among 92 attendees at a rural Arkansas church during March 6–11, 35 (38%) developed laboratory-confirmed COVID-19, and three persons died. Highest attack rates were in persons aged 19–64 years (59%) and ≥65 years (50%). An additional 26 cases linked to the church occurred in the community, including one death.

 

Edited by Corraleno
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Ausmumof3

Ausmumof3

Posted
Posted (edited)

https://www.wehi.edu.au/news/covid19-prevention-trial-opens-high-risk-healthcare-workers
 

a study is starting in Australia testing whether hydroxychloroquine works preventatively for health care workers.  The study will run for four months and is called CovidShield.  It’s opt in based and half will be given a placebo.

“Professor Pellegrini said the hydroxychloroquine to be used in the study had been supplied by the manufacturer for that purpose and therefore would not impact patients who routinely required the drug for other conditions.

“COVID SHIELD will not be diverting hydroxychloroquine for routine use from pharmacies, hospitals, or other patient supply chains,” he said.”

Edited by Ausmumof3
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Ausmumof3

Ausmumof3

Posted
Posted
6 hours ago, whitehawk said:

Two articles for you:

The USDA has an emergency food benefits program to help parents feed their kids who would normally have gotten breakfast and lunch at school--but only in 31 states. (To my dismay, Mississippi is not listed among them.)

Accusations that Florida, like Georgia, is messing with numbers to make reopening look better: https://www.floridatoday.com/story/news/2020/05/18/censorship-covid-19-data-researcher-removed-florida-moves-re-open-state/5212398002/

Wow

I really want to hope those are just the words of a disgruntled employee but it’s hard to see that. 

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Guest

Guest

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Corraleno said:

CDC report released today on the outbreak at a church in Arkansas in March: 35 infected church members, who then spread it to 26 additional people in the community, with 4 deaths.

Among 92 attendees at a rural Arkansas church during March 6–11, 35 (38%) developed laboratory-confirmed COVID-19, and three persons died. Highest attack rates were in persons aged 19–64 years (59%) and ≥65 years (50%). An additional 26 cases linked to the church occurred in the community, including one death.

 

Why is the one “category” 19-64 years, though? That doesn’t make sense to me as a “category”. 

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Ausmumof3

Ausmumof3

Posted
Posted

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-05-20/coronavirus-mirabai-covid19-three-positive-tests-fatigue/12260660
 

one Australian woman who tested negative began feeling ill and tested positive again has just returned a third positive test.  She’s been sick for over two months.

apparently In Aus 95 pc of people have recovered within 60 so it’s not clear what’s happening to make this go on for longer for some people.

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Ausmumof3

Ausmumof3

Posted
Posted

I have been thinking about various issues with public transport and crowding and social distancing and I’m wondering if a long term solution to this is to move toward more of a two shift scenario.  So for an eight hour day we could have a 6am to 2pm cohort and a 2pm till 10pm cohort.  Even schools could potentially run morning and afternoon shifts although maybe with later start and earlier finish times.  It would also mean peoples free time is distributed more evenly meaning it may work better for cafes shops and even gyms to run with lower staff levels and smaller numbers of customers at one time.

is that kind of thinking realistic?  Or is it really too pie in the sky to think it could work?

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Shoeless

Shoeless

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Ausmumof3 said:

I have been thinking about various issues with public transport and crowding and social distancing and I’m wondering if a long term solution to this is to move toward more of a two shift scenario.  So for an eight hour day we could have a 6am to 2pm cohort and a 2pm till 10pm cohort.  Even schools could potentially run morning and afternoon shifts although maybe with later start and earlier finish times.  It would also mean peoples free time is distributed more evenly meaning it may work better for cafes shops and even gyms to run with lower staff levels and smaller numbers of customers at one time.

is that kind of thinking realistic?  Or is it really too pie in the sky to think it could work?

 

It probably depends on the industry.  A lot of tech jobs are already shift work.  But, a lot of tech jobs can also work remotely. 

My junior high had split school shifts due to overcrowding. It sucked. It's a really, really long day for teachers and a really, really short day for the students.  Our class sessions were 37.5 minutes long, (Yes, they counted that half minute), in order to accommodate both shifts of kids AND keep the teachers from working 14+ hour days. 

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Ausmumof3

Ausmumof3

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, MissLemon said:

 

It probably depends on the industry.  A lot of tech jobs are already shift work.  But, a lot of tech jobs can also work remotely. 

My junior high had split school shifts due to overcrowding. It sucked. It's a really, really long day for teachers and a really, really short day for the students.  Our class sessions were 37.5 minutes long, (Yes, they counted that half minute), in order to accommodate both shifts of kids AND keep the teachers from working 14+ hour days. 

Yeah I can see how that would be exhausting.  I was thinking of two shifts of teachers but of course you can’t just double your workforce overnight so most likely not feasible.  

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