wuhan - coronavirus

[Ausmumof3]

52 minutes ago, hopeallgoeswell said:

My mom works with the military, so there was no loss of income, people were on the younger side, (20s), and all had free access to mental health resources. She speculated that since we are social creatures, keeping individuals isolated for months and months while the goal posts are constantly moving is erasing hope for the future.  She said some more about freedoms and oaths, but that's probably not for this forum. 
 

I hope the person you know gets the help he/she needs. 

Yes.  But the posts above mentioned show that at this point this hasn’t happened in Aus or Netherlands in spite of restrictions so there must be another factor?

[EmseB]

1 hour ago, kand said:

It does seem hard to find that number, though I know I’ve seen various articles that included median age statistics. So far I found some for Michigan, where the median age of Covid19 deaths is 76. https://www.freep.com/story/news/local/michigan/2020/05/09/coronavirus-covid-19-cases-death-toll-pandemic/3103300001/

I found a few more. It ranges widely, being upper 60s some places and as high as mid-80s others. I would guess that all depends on where the big outbreaks have happened. More nursing homes will mean higher median age while workplace outbreaks will mean younger. The median age of those infected seems to run about twenty years younger than the median age of those who die. 
 

😢 I’m sorry to hear. As an anecdotal not directed at you, but I’ve noticed an odd correlation that the people I know of who were were anti shutdown and gave the potential for increased suicides as one of their reasons are the same people I now hear reporting suicide spikes. Like I’ve said in another post, I’ve been bothered since this was just starting at all the talk about how people would commit suicide if we had to stay at home. It’s such a suggestible thing with high susceptibility to social contagion, particularly for young people, that it has made me worry about a self fulfilling prophecy 😢. 

Can you share what you mean about false positive rates? I know about the high rate of false negatives with some of the tests, but the fake Facebook story someone shared about flu vaccines making people test positive is the only place I heard talk of false positives. 
 

eta: I’m seeing that false positives are extremely rare. Rare enough as to approach zero. https://www.unionleader.com/news/health/coronavirus/state-official-false-positive-covid-19-tests-very-rare-not-so-with-false-negatives/article_369216dc-3a09-5139-8a29-0520bc3c9d63.html
I did find a story about false positives, but then I saw the website it was on was filled with stories about the dangers of 5G and why wearing a mask is a serious heath risk, along with other headlines I didn’t even understand 😳. 

I had read there would absolutely be a certain rate of false positives for people who had previously had the virus. In a city hit as hard as Wuhan, testing nine million people, it seems like the rate would be pretty high. I guess you do have to take Chinese state media at their word that they actually completed 9 million tests accurately in that amount of time and I don't know why anyone would necessarily believe that anyway.

It wasn't a conspiracy site but I can't find it now. All I can find are articles about how to keep from getting false positives on per tests, which makes it seem like they exist, but I can't find the article I read a few days ago.

I guess ultimately I'd probably be more concerned about false negatives which are much more likely, but the numbers don't make sense to me with that amount of people.

[Ausmumof3]

2 minutes ago, EmseB said:

I had read there would absolutely be a certain rate of false positives for people who had previously had the virus. In a city hit as hard as Wuhan, testing nine million people, it seems like the rate would be pretty high. I guess you do have to take Chinese state media at their word that they actually completed 9 million tests accurately in that amount of time and I don't know why anyone would necessarily believe that anyway.

It wasn't a conspiracy site but I can't find it now. All I can find are articles about how to keep from getting false positives on per tests, which makes it seem like they exist, but I can't find the article I read a few days ago.

I guess ultimately I'd probably be more concerned about false negatives which are much more likely, but the numbers don't make sense to me with that amount of people.

Well in South Korea they had people testing positive weeks after recovering but when they tried to culture the virus it didn’t grow because it was just dead virus still being shed so maybe the same thing is happening in Wuhan?  It’s not a false positive in the sense that the person never had the virus but it’s not an infection risk.  

[EmseB]

1 hour ago, JennyD said:

 

This doesn't strike me as obviously a lie at all.  I'm horrified that this number is so high, actually, considering how strongly they have been trying to stomp the virus out in that city and for how long. 

But how many people left Wuhan when all that happened and then came back?

And I've never believed China or Wuhan had this under control anyway. No one actually believe there were days of zero new cases right?

[Ausmumof3]

1 minute ago, EmseB said:

But how many people left Wuhan when all that happened and then came back?

And I've never believed China or Wuhan had this under control anyway. No one actually believe there were days of zero new cases right?

I have no idea what to believe now.  Things have been really reduced here in Aus with social distancing.  China have used some pretty draconian lockdown measures.  So maybe they have knocked it down pretty hard.  The one thing I know for sure is we probably won’t know the truth anyway.  It’s hard enough getting true stats out of our own countries let alone one that suppresses information like China 

[Frances]

10 hours ago, ElizabethB said:

This organization is tracking US nursing home Covid-19 deaths, they have some interesting infographs.  I've never heard of the organization, but their numbers seem to match up with others I've seen.

https://freopp.org/the-covid-19-nursing-home-crisis-by-the-numbers-3a47433c3f70

It is hard to find median age of US Covid-19 deaths, but from the info in these graphs, statistically it should be a number greater than 85.

Based on current CDC data, median age >75 years old.

I'd like to know the median age of death!  They have the number, they could easily report it.

https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Provisional-COVID-19-Death-Counts-by-Sex-Age-and-S/9bhg-hcku

Both the variation across the country and some of the regional similarities are striking. The N.Y. percentage is so low. Thanks for posting! 

Edited May 27, 2020 by Frances

[ElizabethB]

43 minutes ago, Frances said:

Both the variation across the country and some of the regional similarities are striking. The N.Y. percentage is so low. Thanks for posting! 

I read that they categorized any death in NY as a hospital death if they had previously been in a nursing home and are only counting those that die in a nursing home as a nursing home death, but I'm not sure about that.

[Ausmumof3]

1 hour ago, EmseB said:

But how many people left Wuhan when all that happened and then came back?

And I've never believed China or Wuhan had this under control anyway. No one actually believe there were days of zero new cases right?

 

this is worth a read

[Ausmumof3]

While we are talking about China is there some kind of push to increase birthrate?  I’ve seen several things about fertility lately.  This is the latest from global times

“Chen Xiangqun, NPC deputy and Executive Vice Governor of NE China's Liaoning Province, proposes completely lifting #FamilyPlanning policies in Northeast China first. #TwoSessions”

[JennyD]

2 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

I have no idea what to believe now.  Things have been really reduced here in Aus with social distancing.  China have used some pretty draconian lockdown measures.  So maybe they have knocked it down pretty hard.  

 

 I agree.  Israel also knocked down the daily new case rate to single digits with a lockdown that was much stricter than anything in the US but still not as draconian as what was done in Wuhan.  And China did (does?) mandatory centralized quarantine, which by all reports dramatically reduces family transmission rates.  (In Israel hotel-based quarantine was optional and AFAIK only available for some cases in especially crowded living situations.)  It seems entirely plausible to me that Wuhan had days or weeks of no new cases.  Which is why I am so concerned about this apparent discovery of a reservoir of 200+ previously undetected cases.

While obviously the Chinese government is not a reliable source of information, I also think that it is very dangerous to decide that we simply cannot learn anything useful about this virus from the news coming out of China.

 

 

[Pen]

5 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

While we are talking about China is there some kind of push to increase birthrate?  I’ve seen several things about fertility lately.  This is the latest from global times

“Chen Xiangqun, NPC deputy and Executive Vice Governor of NE China's Liaoning Province, proposes completely lifting #FamilyPlanning policies in Northeast China first. #TwoSessions”

 

Conspiracy theories? 

[Pen]

https://www.cnn.com/2018/08/28/asia/china-family-planning-one-child-intl/index.html

@Ausmumof3

 

Edited May 27, 2020 by Pen

[Malory]

Has the new CDC estimate for fatality rate been discussed here? With the estimate being at 0.4% and asymptomatic infection at 35%, the overall fatality rate is really 0.26%, about twice that of the seasonal flu. Does this bring a little comfort?

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html

https://techstartups.com/2020/05/24/coronavirus-fatality-rate-low-0-26-cdc-says/

[Wheres Toto]

The only false positive rates I've seen were in people who were sick and continued testing positive for a long time after.  I haven't seen anything about false positives otherwise.   I'm sure the numbers are much higher than most places are reporting.

Anecdotally:  I've talked to a few people who are having increased mental health issues/increases in anxiety and suicidal ideation due to the pandemic itself (fear of getting sick) and feeling like people aren't taking it seriously (anxiety at pictures of crowds, reports of people not wearing masks, coming close to agoraphobia).  

[hopeallgoeswell]

9 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Yes.  But the posts above mentioned show that at this point this hasn’t happened in Aus or Netherlands in spite of restrictions so there must be another factor?

You mentioned finances and mental health as being possible differentiating factors.  I don't have overall stats for the U.S.  I was just relaying the one data point and how neither things you mentioned as possibly accounting for the difference between countries are factors for that one hospital. It was in a very young and active population who were essentially told to stay at home, get paid for doing nothing, and isolated for two weeks and then a month and then two months and then...all while watching the media do what the media does. Heck, maybe the difference is the way the media is handling this in different countries?  Maybe it is the number of hot spots a country has?  
 

There were very few covid patients in my mom's hospital, never more than one at a time.  They were all older with poor health to begin with and were discharged within a few days. None of the people under 60-65 who were diagnosed had any reason to be admitted.  Almost all of the other health services were put on hold. If it wasn't covid-related or you weren't on the verge of death, you probably weren't getting seen.  Her concerns, now that they are starting to open up, are 1. How to manage two months of backlogged appointments on top of current appointments. 2. How much extra care are all of the patients with pre-covid problems going to need because they were deemed non-essential and 3. Catching all of the illnesses, like cancer, that could have been caught and started treatment already. Outside of the few hotspots we have had, I think a lot of the hospitals here are in a similar situation. 

[TracyP]

3 hours ago, Malory said:

Has the new CDC estimate for fatality rate been discussed here? With the estimate being at 0.4% and asymptomatic infection at 35%, the overall fatality rate is really 0.26%, about twice that of the seasonal flu. Does this bring a little comfort?

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html

https://techstartups.com/2020/05/24/coronavirus-fatality-rate-low-0-26-cdc-says/

Huh, that is hard to wrap my head around. I dug into this a bit deeper because it feels too optimistic. And well I think it probably is too optimistic... This is a possibly legit IFR if you could protect those over 75 (give or take 5 years). This article does a good job explaining the difference we are seeing in IFRs in different locations. And once again highlights the need to protect this segment of our population.

[TCB]

2 minutes ago, StellaM said:

I had no-where else to share my horror.

Bushfires, virus, and now the rats...

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/may/28/sydney-braces-for-rat-plague-after-covid-19-forces-hungry-rodents-to-turn-to-cannibalism

Where is the horror reaction when you need it! 😱

[JadeOrchidSong]

13 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

While we are talking about China is there some kind of push to increase birthrate?  I’ve seen several things about fertility lately.  This is the latest from global times

“Chen Xiangqun, NPC deputy and Executive Vice Governor of NE China's Liaoning Province, proposes completely lifting #FamilyPlanning policies in Northeast China first. #TwoSessions”

The one child policy was changed a couple years ago. Now China encourages two babies per marriage. In fact, some provinces mandate that when people apply for marriage license, they have to pay a "deposit" of thousands of dollars, which will be returned to them  when a second child is born. My birth province has this policy for a while now. So the Chinese government firmly controls reproduction rights. People had to pay a huge fine and lose their jobs for having a second child, and now people are fore-fined at time of marriage if they do not have two children down the road.. Absurdity. Stupidity. Utmost tyranny. 

And by the way, Global Times is a well known CCP propaganda mouthpiece. 

[prairiewindmomma]

42 minutes ago, Plum said:

I have a question.
If you have had C19, do you need to get the vaccination? 

Maybe.  It depends on if having C19 gives you antibodies strong enough to prevent subsequent re-infection. If it does, it depends on how long those antibodies last.  When you catch a common cold (another type of coronavirus, the immunity often only lasts a few months.

[Pen]

1 hour ago, StellaM said:

I had no-where else to share my horror.

Bushfires, virus, and now the rats...

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/may/28/sydney-braces-for-rat-plague-after-covid-19-forces-hungry-rodents-to-turn-to-cannibalism

 

Ugh.  Rats in NYC were already a problem.

cannabalistic rats in NYC and Sydney problem is starting to sound more like the zombie apocalypse .   

I wonder about rat borne illness. 😟

[Ausmumof3]

1 hour ago, JadeOrchidSong said:

The one child policy was changed a couple years ago. Now China encourages two babies per marriage. In fact, some provinces mandate that when people apply for marriage license, they have to pay a "deposit" of thousands of dollars, which will be returned to them  when a second child is born. My birth province has this policy for a while now. So the Chinese government firmly controls reproduction rights. People had to pay a huge fine and lose their jobs for having a second child, and now people are fore-fined at time of marriage if they do not have two children down the road.. Absurdity. Stupidity. Utmost tyranny. 

And by the way, Global Times is a well known CCP propaganda mouthpiece. 

Yes I know that.  I just read it to get a bit of a clue as to what’s going on and then draw my own conclusions.

 

[Ausmumof3]

8 hours ago, Pen said:

 

Conspiracy theories? 

Well yes.  But I’m also wondering about whether the concern that covid may cause infertility might make them relax things a bit?

[Ausmumof3]

5 hours ago, hopeallgoeswell said:

You mentioned finances and mental health as being possible differentiating factors.  I don't have overall stats for the U.S.  I was just relaying the one data point and how neither things you mentioned as possibly accounting for the difference between countries are factors for that one hospital. It was in a very young and active population who were essentially told to stay at home, get paid for doing nothing, and isolated for two weeks and then a month and then two months and then...all while watching the media do what the media does. Heck, maybe the difference is the way the media is handling this in different countries?  Maybe it is the number of hot spots a country has?  
 

There were very few covid patients in my mom's hospital, never more than one at a time.  They were all older with poor health to begin with and were discharged within a few days. None of the people under 60-65 who were diagnosed had any reason to be admitted.  Almost all of the other health services were put on hold. If it wasn't covid-related or you weren't on the verge of death, you probably weren't getting seen.  Her concerns, now that they are starting to open up, are 1. How to manage two months of backlogged appointments on top of current appointments. 2. How much extra care are all of the patients with pre-covid problems going to need because they were deemed non-essential and 3. Catching all of the illnesses, like cancer, that could have been caught and started treatment already. Outside of the few hotspots we have had, I think a lot of the hospitals here are in a similar situation. 

Yes maybe it relates to the levels of the virus itself.  

[Terabith]

1 hour ago, StellaM said:

I had no-where else to share my horror.

Bushfires, virus, and now the rats...

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/may/28/sydney-braces-for-rat-plague-after-covid-19-forces-hungry-rodents-to-turn-to-cannibalism

I suggested that somebody feed the poor rats.  I honestly feel really terrible for them.  There are also the marauding monkey gangs.  https://www.livescience.com/macaque-fight-thailand-temple-coronavirus.html

[Pen]

26 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Well yes.  But I’m also wondering about whether the concern that covid may cause infertility might make them relax things a bit?

It was already in the works before Covid was (as far as we know). So unless CV19 was planned well in advance then it at least is not entirely related.  

Otoh, it could be being pushed more now due to concerns about CV19 and sterility, or because CV19 did wipe out many more people than admitted. 

 

 

[Ausmumof3]

https://amp.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3086177/coronavirus-uses-same-strategy-hiv-dodge-immune-response-chinese?__twitter_impression=true

The novel coronavirus uses the same strategy to evade attack from the human immune system as HIV, according to a new study by Chinese scientists.

Both viruses remove marker molecules on the surface of an infected cell that are used by the immune system to identify invaders, the researchers said in a non-peer reviewed paper posted on preprint website bioRxiv.org on Sunday. They warned that this commonality could mean Sars-CoV-2, the clinical name for the virus, could be around for some time, like HIV.

Virologist Zhang Hui and a team from Sun Yat-sen University in Guangzhou also said their discovery added weight to clinical observations that the coronavirus was showing “some characteristics of viruses causing chronic infection”.

[Ausmumof3]

Original study here - not peer reviewed yet.

https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.24.111823v1.full.pdf

[hopeallgoeswell]

4 hours ago, kand said:

That is very fortunate. You understand that’s not at all how it was many places though, right? This is why opening is happening in different places at different times. At the start, we had little preparation and no plan, so the blunt instrument of closing everything was all we had. We will never know how it would have been different in places that ended up with low numbers if there had not been stay home orders. As they said at the start,  if it worked, it would look like an over reaction afterward. 

Yes, it is very fortunate, and yes, I understand exponential growth. I also understand closing down for a few weeks to get a handle on the situation. People in my area have been under a SIP order since March 23 and it's still in place. There have been very few cases where I am, an hour away from Seattle, even though for the last eight weeks instead of coming into contact with people at work (a place where contact tracing would be relatively painless), people have been coming into contact with others in droves at grocery stores, Lowes, Target, Walmart, and outside of work.  I don't understand closing down a country as big as America all at the same time for almost two months.  Most areas were prepared to open up after a month and then maybe people would have taken rolling shutdowns in hotspots a little more seriously and with a better overall outlook.  Chicken Little is still a story told to children for a reason.  Opening is happening in different times in different states, which I do understand, but the states that are opening up are getting smeared in the mainstream media as places where governors want people to die. I totally get that this is a crazy situation all the way around and hindsight is 20/20.  

[Pen]

56 minutes ago, hopeallgoeswell said:

Yes, it is very fortunate, and yes, I understand exponential growth. I also understand closing down for a few weeks to get a handle on the situation. People in my area have been under a SIP order since March 23 and it's still in place. There have been very few cases where I am, an hour away from Seattle, even though for the last eight weeks instead of coming into contact with people at work (a place where contact tracing would be relatively painless), people have been coming into contact with others in droves at grocery stores, Lowes, Target, Walmart, and outside of work.  I don't understand closing down a country as big as America all at the same time for almost two months.  Most areas were prepared to open up after a month and then maybe people would have taken rolling shutdowns in hotspots a little more seriously and with a better overall outlook.  Chicken Little is still a story told to children for a reason.  Opening is happening in different times in different states, which I do understand, but the states that are opening up are getting smeared in the mainstream media as places where governors want people to die. I totally get that this is a crazy situation all the way around and hindsight is 20/20.  

 

If you are that close to Seattle, I assume you are in Washington.  Isn’t all of Washington at least in “phase 1” reopening and some of it already in “phase 2”?

 I am currently in Oregon and my impression is that Washington is a little ahead of Oregon, not behind Oregon on reopening.

[Jean in Newcastle]

1 hour ago, hopeallgoeswell said:

Yes, it is very fortunate, and yes, I understand exponential growth. I also understand closing down for a few weeks to get a handle on the situation. People in my area have been under a SIP order since March 23 and it's still in place. There have been very few cases where I am, an hour away from Seattle, even though for the last eight weeks instead of coming into contact with people at work (a place where contact tracing would be relatively painless), people have been coming into contact with others in droves at grocery stores, Lowes, Target, Walmart, and outside of work.  I don't understand closing down a country as big as America all at the same time for almost two months.  Most areas were prepared to open up after a month and then maybe people would have taken rolling shutdowns in hotspots a little more seriously and with a better overall outlook.  Chicken Little is still a story told to children for a reason.  Opening is happening in different times in different states, which I do understand, but the states that are opening up are getting smeared in the mainstream media as places where governors want people to die. I totally get that this is a crazy situation all the way around and hindsight is 20/20.  

24 counties in Washington state are already in phase 2.  More have been given the green light to apply for phase 2.  You are misrepresenting the situation. 

[Jean in Newcastle]

10 minutes ago, Pen said:

 

If you are that close to Seattle, I assume you are in Washington.  Isn’t all of Washington at least in “phase 1” reopening and some of it already in “phase 2”?

 I am currently in Oregon and my impression is that Washington is a little ahead of Oregon, not behind Oregon on reopening.

Yes, even the counties not in stage 2 yet are in phase 1 and phase 1 restrictions are being relaxed as well. 

[Frances]

1 hour ago, hopeallgoeswell said:

Yes, it is very fortunate, and yes, I understand exponential growth. I also understand closing down for a few weeks to get a handle on the situation. People in my area have been under a SIP order since March 23 and it's still in place. There have been very few cases where I am, an hour away from Seattle, even though for the last eight weeks instead of coming into contact with people at work (a place where contact tracing would be relatively painless), people have been coming into contact with others in droves at grocery stores, Lowes, Target, Walmart, and outside of work.  I don't understand closing down a country as big as America all at the same time for almost two months.  Most areas were prepared to open up after a month and then maybe people would have taken rolling shutdowns in hotspots a little more seriously and with a better overall outlook.  Chicken Little is still a story told to children for a reason.  Opening is happening in different times in different states, which I do understand, but the states that are opening up are getting smeared in the mainstream media as places where governors want people to die. I totally get that this is a crazy situation all the way around and hindsight is 20/20.  

I don’t think it’s true that most areas were prepared to open up after a month in terms of adequate PPE and testing. Heck, by that point here the largest hospital in the state couldn’t even test for flu, let alone the virus, due to a shortage of swabs, and we are a low case/death state. Now, had the federal government taken it more seriously and had their act together from the beginning, perhaps then the initial shut down could have been much shorter in many places or even not necessary in some pretty rural areas. But we started so far behind the curve in the US that there was no way it wasn’t going to be incredibly painful on multiple levels. And all the divisiveness now is likely also going to cause more pain and suffering of all sorts, compared to the alternative of having unifying leadership.

Also, shutdowns varied greatly by state. For instance, manufacturing and construction never shut down in my state, as long as safety guidelines could be followed. A fairly wide variety of retail businesses were also allowed to remain open. I’m not sure I understand your point about work and contact tracing as people would still need groceries, household items, etc. Plus, prolonged exposure in indoor work environments is generally much riskier than being a store customer.

[JennyD]

Daily new cases ticking back up in Israel, 6 weeks after gradual reopening began and 2 weeks after the school system fully reopened.  36 new cases yesterday, the highest number since early May.  It looks like most of the new cases are linked to school outbreaks.  Not great.

The schools -- and everything else -- were supposed to reopen in a very slow, careful, limited process, but that all got more or less thrown out the window.  Part of it was due to the changeover to a new government, but there was also a tremendous rush back to 'normal.'  

We're heading into a holiday weekend when testing will surely be down and lots of people will be gathering.  I guess we'll see what happens.

 

[JennyD]

(double post, sorry)

Edited May 28, 2020 by JennyD

[Pen]

12 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

https://amp.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3086177/coronavirus-uses-same-strategy-hiv-dodge-immune-response-chinese?__twitter_impression=true

The novel coronavirus uses the same strategy to evade attack from the human immune system as HIV, according to a new study by Chinese scientists.

Both viruses remove marker molecules on the surface of an infected cell that are used by the immune system to identify invaders, the researchers said in a non-peer reviewed paper posted on preprint website bioRxiv.org on Sunday. They warned that this commonality could mean Sars-CoV-2, the clinical name for the virus, could be around for some time, like HIV.

Virologist Zhang Hui and a team from Sun Yat-sen University in Guangzhou also said their discovery added weight to clinical observations that the coronavirus was showing “some characteristics of viruses causing chronic infection”.

This is, IMO, extremely important, so I am quoting mainly to bring it back to people’s attention  who might have missed it above.  

The article is much easier to read than the study—but the study is, IMO, so far (I’m less than 1/4 way through) more worrisome than the article paints it. 

 

11 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Original study here - not peer reviewed yet.

https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.24.111823v1.full.pdf

 

I am very slowly working my way through the original study.

If it hasn’t been already it should probably be cross-posted on the scientific developments thread for people who aren’t following this long thread.  IMO it is extremely important, and will affect testing, vaccines, and treatments.

 

And it is very concerning as things are opening up. And as people think they are “done” and acting like it is pretty much all over.  Or pretty much like they are going to get it and it will be no big deal.  

 

Even though many cases are Asymptomatic in an obvious immediate way (no cough, fever etc) it looks like there might could be a destructive immune system effect that could emerge and be more debilitating later on in life.

I wonder if people would pay more attention if it were called something more similar to AIDS-like SARS-CoV-2 and AIDS-20?

 

 

 

[I suspect this may also have to do with part of why China is trying to identify every single last case in Wuhan.] 

 

[whispering...it also seems to fit with what Luc Montagnier said...  and it also may be of relevance in re the HCQ issue  ...] 

[Ausmumof3]

2 minutes ago, Pen said:

This is, IMO, extremely important, so I am quoting mainly to bring it back to people’s attention  who might have missed it above.  

The article is much easier to read than the study—but the study is, IMO, so far (I’m less than 1/4 way through) more worrisome than the article paints it. 

 

 

I am very slowly working my way through the original study.

If it hasn’t been already it should probably be cross-posted on the scientific developments thread for people who aren’t following this long thread.  IMO it is extremely important, and will affect testing, vaccines, and treatments.

 

And it is very concerning as things are opening up. And as people think they are “done” and acting like it is pretty much all over.  Or pretty much like they are going to get it and it will be no big deal.  

 

Even though many cases are Asymptomatic in an obvious immediate way (no cough, fever etc) it looks like there might could be a destructive immune system effect that could emerge and be more debilitating later on in life.

I wonder if people would pay more attention if it were called something more similar to AIDS-like SARS-CoV-2 and AIDS-20?

 

 

 

[I suspect this may also have to do with part of why China is trying to identify every single last case in Wuhan.] 

 

[whispering...it also seems to fit with what Luc Montagnier said...  and it also may be of relevance in re the HCQ issue  ...] 

We have had a second case in Aus now where someone became ill apparently around 80 days after exposure.  There may be some underlying missed transmission but it’s concerning.  I won’t worry too much unless there are further studies showing the same thing but 😬

[Ausmumof3]

1 hour ago, JennyD said:

Daily new cases ticking back up in Israel, 6 weeks after gradual reopening began and 2 weeks after the school system fully reopened.  36 new cases yesterday, the highest number since early May.  It looks like most of the new cases are linked to school outbreaks.  Not great.

The schools -- and everything else -- were supposed to reopen in a very slow, careful, limited process, but that all got more or less thrown out the window.  Part of it was due to the changeover to a new government, but there was also a tremendous rush back to 'normal.'  

We're heading into a holiday weekend when testing will surely be down and lots of people will be gathering.  I guess we'll see what happens.

 

Same thing happening here with the back to normal rush.

[Ausmumof3]

https://thorax.bmj.com/content/early/2020/05/27/thoraxjnl-2020-215091.full
 

study on a cruise ship showed almost 80pc asymptomatic.  Also possibly a high false negative rate with the testing done 

[73349]

I'm pretty much all better--no thanks to the medical care available.

My aunt and uncle in Texas have it now. She is mildly sick at home; he's in the hospital but not ICU. They're in their early 60s.

[TCB]

4 minutes ago, whitehawk said:

I'm pretty much all better--no thanks to the medical care available.

My aunt and uncle in Texas have it now. She is mildly sick at home; he's in the hospital but not ICU. They're in their early 60s.

Glad you are better! Sorry your aunt and uncle are sick!

My school friend - 55 ish has been home for a couple of weeks. He just posted that his kidneys have finally started improving and he was able to skip 2 dialysis sessions and is hopefully on the way to stopping dialysis completely. My cousin's husband continues to do well and is starting back to work in stages in June.

[Susan in TX]

This is a good article about cases in Dallas:

https://www.dallasnews.com/news/public-health/2020/05/28/covid-19-has-hit-black-neighborhoods-in-dallas-hard-heres-why/

Susan in TX

[Ausmumof3]

https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/05/27/science.abc6197
 

mask science

The World Health Organization (WHO) recommendations for social distancing of 6 ft and hand washing to reduce the spread of SARS-CoV-2 are based on studies of respiratory droplets carried out in the 1930s. These studies showed that large, ~100 μm droplets produced in coughs and sneezes quickly underwent gravitational settling (1). However, when these studies were conducted, the technology did not exist for detecting submicron aerosols. As a comparison, calculations predict that in still air, a 100-μm droplet will settle to the ground from 8 ft in 4.6 s whereas a 1-μm aerosol particle will take 12.4 hours (4). Measurements now show that intense coughs and sneezes that propel larger droplets more than 20 ft can also create thousands of aerosols that can travel even further (1). Increasing evidence for SARS-CoV-2 suggests the 6 ft WHO recommendation is likely not enough under many indoor conditions where aerosols can remain airborne for hours, accumulate over time, and follow air flows over distances further than 6 ft (5, 10).

[Pen]

2 hours ago, Susan in TX said:

This is a good article about cases in Dallas:

https://www.dallasnews.com/news/public-health/2020/05/28/covid-19-has-hit-black-neighborhoods-in-dallas-hard-heres-why/

Susan in TX

 

Low Vitamin D (and other nutrient lack) should not be discounted.

 In many places the darker the skin the more problems with CV19 there seem to be, even amongst people in higher socio economic groups.  For example, darker skinned doctors in UK.  And the darker the skin pigment, the harder it is to make ones own vitamin D from sunshine (and cholesterol). 

 

Healthy in Seven Days: Success through vitamin D treatment https://www.amazon.com/dp/B00MHO7LKY/ref=cm_sw_r_cp_api_i_vVd0EbGVJFA04

 

https://www.amazon.com/dp/B00MHO7LKY/ref=cm_sw_r_cp_api_i_vVd0EbGVJFA04

 

https://youtu.be/JVg8opQkQXc

 

[Ausmumof3]

https://amp.theguardian.com/science/2020/may/28/questions-raised-over-hydroxychloroquine-study-which-caused-who-to-halt-trials-for-covid-19?__twitter_impression=true
 

the Lancet study that reviewed round the world hospital figures for hydroxychloroquine etc had wrong numbers for deaths for Australia for the dates used.  Statistically this wouldn’t make much difference but means the data needs checking fairly carefully.

[Ausmumof3]

https://www.acpjournals.org/doi/10.7326/M20-2567
 

More mask science - specifically for cloth masks this time.

[Pen]

11 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

https://www.acpjournals.org/doi/10.7326/M20-2567
 

More mask science - specifically for cloth masks this time.

 

I thought this was especially interesting and not something I’d seen before:

“Further evidence to suggest that masks work

This ecologic analysis by Leffler et al also supports the use of masks in public cloth or not. "In countries with cultural norms or government policies supporting public mask-wearing, per-capita coronavirus mortality increased on average by just 5.4% each week, as compared with 48% each week countries that did not wear masks." https://www.researchgate.net/publication/341539484_Association_of_country-wide_coronavirus_mortality_with_demographics_testing_lockdowns_and_public_wearing_of_masks”

 

 

[Ausmumof3]

Interestingly the advice here today has changed from masks are not recommended to masks are not required at this time due to low community transmission however wearing of masks is a personal choice.

[Pen]

53 minutes ago, kand said:

Thanks for this. There are a number of interesting findings here that I'm surprised not to have heard before now. It was also the first time I'd heard what kind of cloth mask was used in that blasted MacIntyre study people like to cite--they called it "an unusually inefficient mask".

 

Apparently only around a 3% filtration, for the cloth mask in MacIntyre, didn’t it say?

 

 

 

[Ausmumof3]

There are twitter videos showing apartments on mudanjiang in china being placed into lockdown and claims that transport to and from there is being suspended.  

according to Global Times

“About 90 percent of trains at Mudanjiang railway station in NE China's Heilongjiang Province have been suspended after the city reported 5 new cases of asymptomatic #coronavirus infections on Tue. It is still unknown when the services would resume.”

[TCB]

4 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

There are twitter videos showing apartments on mudanjiang in china being placed into lockdown and claims that transport to and from there is being suspended.  

according to Global Times

“About 90 percent of trains at Mudanjiang railway station in NE China's Heilongjiang Province have been suspended after the city reported 5 new cases of asymptomatic #coronavirus infections on Tue. It is still unknown when the services would resume.”

I know we don’t know what the real figures are but it makes me nervous how big their reaction is to seemingly small numbers. Keeps making me think they know something we don’t.

I read a post last night from a dr in a town about 100 miles from me who said the level of positive cases in the hospital there’s catchment area have increased over 800% In the last 14 days. The number itself is quite low, in the 30s, but from those reports from China it sounds like they would be taking pretty extensive action. We, on the other hand, have crowded pool parties!