Omicron anecdata?

[kbutton]

[mommyoffive]

2 hours ago, Hilltopmom said:

Ugh I feel awful. So congested and miserable.  Could be worse, I know. It’s just been years since I was sick. All I’ve done today is watch tv or pop online

thanks for checking 

Ugh, I am sorry.  I hope you feel better soon.  

Edited March 14, 2022 by mommyoffive

[Jaybee]

There is something I have been wondering about. We were all vaccinated and had the booster, then three of us got covid. For two, it was like a nasty cold, and for the other, more like a mild cold. My questions are related to this: I keep reading on links and medpage, etc., about long covid and other longer term issues or crises after having had even mild covid. But the articles or studies never mention how being vaccinated might or might not play into it, at least as far as I have seen. I'm just wondering if we are at the same risk for these other issues as the unvaccinated person who had a mild case, or not. We are about 4 ½ weeks out now, and well, I guess I'm kind of waiting for the other shoe to drop.

[Laura Corin]

3 hours ago, Jaybee said:

There is something I have been wondering about. We were all vaccinated and had the booster, then three of us got covid. For two, it was like a nasty cold, and for the other, more like a mild cold. My questions are related to this: I keep reading on links and medpage, etc., about long covid and other longer term issues or crises after having had even mild covid. But the articles or studies never mention how being vaccinated might or might not play into it, at least as far as I have seen. I'm just wondering if we are at the same risk for these other issues as the unvaccinated person who had a mild case, or not. We are about 4 ½ weeks out now, and well, I guess I'm kind of waiting for the other shoe to drop.

This study of studies suggests that vaccination reduces your risk of long covid by about 50 percent - more in older people and less in younger people

https://www.bmj.com/content/376/bmj.o407

[mommyoffive]

State of Affairs: March 14 (Europe, Asia, U.S., and Deltacron) (substack.com)

Case trends around the globe have made a u-turn and started increasing, specifically in Asian and European countries.

 

So, what does this all mean for the U.S.?

Throughout the pandemic, the U.S. has lagged Europe trends by a few weeks. Right now only ~10% of our cases are due to BA.2. But once this starts reaching the 50% threshold, we can expect cases to start increasing. This combined with removed mitigation measures should land us with an uptick in April/May.

• The height of the uptick will also be dependent on how well CDC’s new framework works and if people are willing to change behaviors, like wearing a mask again.

Nonetheless, all eyes are on wastewater surveillance. In the past 15 days, 34% of wastewater sites on the CDC dashboard have reported an increase in viral detection. If these sites continue to increase and/or more sites report upticks, then it’s a great early signal of where cases may be going in the U.S.

Edited March 14, 2022 by mommyoffive

[Faith-manor]

Michigan reported just under 1400 new cases for Sat, Sun, Mon. It is encouraging since we are coming into our spring/summer season where everyone goes outdoors and kind of stays out, and the major indoor sports stuff is over. Some of the schools are saying that if weather permits, they are going to hold spring band concert, choir concert, and school play outside because everyone, including teachers, are tired of being shut inside. We will see. It is a pain to set up for these things outdoors and none of these schools have band shells or amphitheaters. Plus, spring rains. But I would be happy if they managed it, and would attend as a show of support if they did.

[mommyoffive]

Here's what experts say could lie ahead for the third year of the pandemic (wisn.com)

[Mom_to3]

6 hours ago, mommyoffive said:

State of Affairs: March 14 (Europe, Asia, U.S., and Deltacron) (substack.com)

Case trends around the globe have made a u-turn and started increasing, specifically in Asian and European countries.

 

So, what does this all mean for the U.S.?

Throughout the pandemic, the U.S. has lagged Europe trends by a few weeks. Right now only ~10% of our cases are due to BA.2. But once this starts reaching the 50% threshold, we can expect cases to start increasing. This combined with removed mitigation measures should land us with an uptick in April/May.

• The height of the uptick will also be dependent on how well CDC’s new framework works and if people are willing to change behaviors, like wearing a mask again.

Nonetheless, all eyes are on wastewater surveillance. In the past 15 days, 34% of wastewater sites on the CDC dashboard have reported an increase in viral detection. If these sites continue to increase and/or more sites report upticks, then it’s a great early signal of where cases may be going in the U.S.

Here is the wastewater site from the CDC I just discovered (my state has never talked about wastewater - but we are measuring it after all!)

[Mom_to3]

Ups sorry, here is the link

https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#wastewater-surveillance

[mommyoffive]

Only 55 new reported cases today in WI.  If I hadn't seen that other info, I would be feeling really good right now.

[KSera]

1 minute ago, mommyoffive said:

Only 55 new reported cases today in WI.  If I hadn't seen that other info, I would be feeling really good right now.

Wow! Do they still have PCR testing readily available to people? It's hard for to to figure out right now what percentage of cases are actually being reported right now.

I'd be feeling pretty darn good in a state with only 55 cases though, particularly if that is decreasing each day and not increasing.

[mommyoffive]

10 minutes ago, KSera said:

Wow! Do they still have PCR testing readily available to people? It's hard for to to figure out right now what percentage of cases are actually being reported right now.

I'd be feeling pretty darn good in a state with only 55 cases though, particularly if that is decreasing each day and not increasing.

Wisconsin sees only 55 new COVID-19 cases Monday; fewest since July 17 (msn.com)

 

Hmm testing.  I haven't been tested somewhere since Thanksgiving as we did it before we got together with elderly relatives.   At that time I know even in my small town it was easy to get tested for free.  But then around Christmas and the surge it was much harder to find in person testing in certain areas.  If you were in an area that was serious about mandates it was hard to find, go to one that didn't have mandates and you could get one easily.  My best guess is that there probably isn't a lot of testing going on now.   Dh said at work in Dec-Feb everyone had Covid.  Now nobody is sick or mask wearing since that mandate went away.   But yeah I don't think you can ever really know what is going on with the rates just with hearing the reported cases.  Lots of people are not going to get tested, take home tests, or have it and not even be that sick.  

[ktgrok]

9 hours ago, mommyoffive said:

State of Affairs: March 14 (Europe, Asia, U.S., and Deltacron) (substack.com)

Case trends around the globe have made a u-turn and started increasing, specifically in Asian and European countries.

 

So, what does this all mean for the U.S.?

Throughout the pandemic, the U.S. has lagged Europe trends by a few weeks. Right now only ~10% of our cases are due to BA.2. But once this starts reaching the 50% threshold, we can expect cases to start increasing. This combined with removed mitigation measures should land us with an uptick in April/May.

• The height of the uptick will also be dependent on how well CDC’s new framework works and if people are willing to change behaviors, like wearing a mask again.

Nonetheless, all eyes are on wastewater surveillance. In the past 15 days, 34% of wastewater sites on the CDC dashboard have reported an increase in viral detection. If these sites continue to increase and/or more sites report upticks, then it’s a great early signal of where cases may be going in the U.S.

So, in other words, once my soon to be 5 yr old gets vaccinated we will get another wave, just like when the big kids got vaccinated. Great. 

[mommyoffive]

2 hours ago, ktgrok said:

So, in other words, once my soon to be 5 yr old gets vaccinated we will get another wave, just like when the big kids got vaccinated. Great. 

I am hoping and praying not.  But man I am down about it today.  I hadn't kept up with what was happening with Covid in other countries since Russian started a war.  I had no idea this was happening.  I thought the Omi surge was over and we would be just in a low level of cases for a long time.  I feel bad for all kids who got their vaccines and yet didn't really get a break from Covid.  Just stinks. 

[mommyoffive]

Coverage for vaccines and testing are going away.

The White House is running out of money for its COVID response : NPR

[KSera]

2 minutes ago, mommyoffive said:

Coverage for vaccines and testing are going away.

The White House is running out of money for its COVID response : NPR

This is so infuriating. So, lift protections for people and say the at-risk are on their own to protect themselves now, and then vote against funding so that the treatments and testing needed in order for the at risk to protect themselves aren’t available to them. Oh, and cut back on providing adequate data so that those at risk can adequately assess what degree of protection they need at any given moment. Everyone not young, thin and completely healthy has been totally thrown under the bus in the name of politics (what’s bizarre is the number of people who have been willing to throw their own selves under the bus for politics during this. Truly death cult level stuff.)

[mommyoffive]

Experts Warn of Another Coming Rise in U.S. COVID Cases | PEOPLE.com

[Happy2BaMom]

1 hour ago, KSera said:

This is so infuriating. So, lift protections for people and say the at-risk are on their own to protect themselves now, and then vote against funding so that the treatments and testing needed in order for the at risk to protect themselves aren’t available to them. Oh, and cut back on providing adequate data so that those at risk can adequately assess what degree of protection they need at any given moment. Everyone not young, thin and completely healthy has been totally thrown under the bus in the name of politics (what’s bizarre is the number of people who have been willing to throw their own selves under the bus for politics during this. Truly death cult level stuff.)

The WH is still trying to get the necessary funding. Not sure if they will be successful as votes are/will be very close.

And, yeah, definite death cult.

 

 

[mommyoffive]

Yesterday must have been a fluke in WI.  Today's cases are 450.  

Wisconsin omicron COVID-19: Death toll, case count, map (wisn.com)

 

And the wastewater is already rising in Milwaukee

 

COVID-19 traces found in sewer systems have jumped (wisn.com)

 

Edited March 15, 2022 by mommyoffive

[mommyoffive]

COVID-19 infections are on the rise in the UK and Europe. What could that mean for the US? (wisn.com)

[mommyoffive]

 

COVID-19 infections are on the rise in the UK and Europe. What could that mean for the US? (wisn.com)

Althoff said although the U.K. may provide a glimpse of the future, there are key differences that will affect how BA.2 plays out in the United States.

In the U.K., 86% of eligible people are fully vaccinated, and 67% are boosted, compared with 69% of those eligible vaccinated and 50% boosted in the U.S.

"What we see happening in the U.K. is going to be perhaps a better story than what we should be expecting here," Althoff said.

In the Netherlands, it took about a month for BA.2 to overpower BA.1, she noted. If the same timeline occurs in the U.S., that will mean the variant is taking off just as the immunity generated by winter's omicron infections will be waning.

"I'm concerned about that," Althoff said. "But we were in a similar situation last spring, where we really got hopeful that things were going to settle down, and we got a little bit of a summer, and then we got walloped by delta."

It will be important for people to understand they may be able to take their masks off for a few weeks, Althoff said, but they might also need to go back to wearing them regularly if cases spike.

Edited March 15, 2022 by mommyoffive

[mommyoffive]

[mommyoffive]

Senate passes resolution that would undo extension of transit mask rule (nbcnews.com)

[KSera]

1 minute ago, mommyoffive said:

Senate passes resolution that would undo extension of transit mask rule (nbcnews.com)

This is so unfair to people who rely on public transportation to get around, get to jobs, etc. Many of them the same people who are at highest risk. This will affect one of my adult kids very badly if it goes through. Hopefully it doesn’t.

[mommyoffive]

Pandemic Preparedness: S. Korea, Vietnam, and…the U.S? (substack.com)

[Happy2BaMom]

18 hours ago, mommyoffive said:

 

COVID-19 infections are on the rise in the UK and Europe. What could that mean for the US? (wisn.com)

Althoff said although the U.K. may provide a glimpse of the future, there are key differences that will affect how BA.2 plays out in the United States.

In the U.K., 86% of eligible people are fully vaccinated, and 67% are boosted, compared with 69% of those eligible vaccinated and 50% boosted in the U.S.

"What we see happening in the U.K. is going to be perhaps a better story than what we should be expecting here," Althoff said.

In the Netherlands, it took about a month for BA.2 to overpower BA.1, she noted. If the same timeline occurs in the U.S., that will mean the variant is taking off just as the immunity generated by winter's omicron infections will be waning.

"I'm concerned about that," Althoff said. "But we were in a similar situation last spring, where we really got hopeful that things were going to settle down, and we got a little bit of a summer, and then we got walloped by delta."

It will be important for people to understand they may be able to take their masks off for a few weeks, Althoff said, but they might also need to go back to wearing them regularly if cases spike.

Ugh. For some reason, a similar thought popped into my head at bedtime last night..."how different, really, is the situation in the US now from Europe or even China?"

I guess we'll see, but the US as a whole is in "Covid who?" mode, and, once again, other countries experiencing new, large spikes while we turn our heads the other way.

I better get back in my mental survival bunker, where I am grim-faced in my determination to keep me & mine alive - *and healthy* - with masks, boosters, & distancing (when possible), and just let the chips fall where they may with everyone else.

I *hate* living that way, BTW. It's not mentally, emotionally, or spiritually healthy to not give a sh*t about other people's well-being. But, if I continue to care, I'm driven mad by the utter callousness and selfishness (proudly displayed) by a sizeable portion of the population. It's such a no-win situation.

Edited March 16, 2022 by Happy2BaMom

[mommyoffive]

Omicron sub-variant BA.2 spreading across U.S. as cases rise overseas (msn.com)

[rebcoola]

Head in sand dropping all restrictions. With a new variant spreading just in time for spring breaks to happen.  That's why we are stocked up on good masks.

[mommyoffive]

1 hour ago, rebcoola said:

Head in sand dropping all restrictions. With a new variant spreading just in time for spring breaks to happen.  That's why we are stocked up on good masks.

Yep.  We have always worn Kn95, k95, Kf94 so I had the upgraded masks for Omni. when the CDC was telling people to get better masks.  I had kind of put off buying more when Omni was on the decline because every place was ditching masks and I thought maybe there wouldn't be a need.   But we just put in another order for some new ones about 2 weeks ago.   Sigh.

[Jean in Newcastle]

The "personal responsibility" people are getting their wish.  Let's see if any of them actually take personal responsibility.  Though my area, which was very compliant on the mandates is still masking voluntarily at about a 90% level in the secular venues I've been.  "Christian" venues, not at all - except me. 

[mommyoffive]

Pfizer asks US to allow 4th COVID vaccine dose for seniors (wisn.com)

[mommyoffive]

WHO says global rise in COVID cases is 'tip of the iceberg' | Reuters

[Hilltopmom]

On 3/13/2022 at 8:09 PM, Hilltopmom said:

Ugh I feel awful. So congested and miserable.  Could be worse, I know. It’s just been years since I was sick. All I’ve done today is watch tv or pop online

thanks for checking 

I’m on the mend now. My isolation was extended to the full 10 days though because I was still sick on day 5. I’m ok with that!

Eta- Besides I’m still short of breath walking from one room to the next.

Edited March 16, 2022 by Hilltopmom

[mommyoffive]

6 minutes ago, Hilltopmom said:

I’m on the mend now. My isolation was extended to the full 10 days though because I was still sick on day 5. I’m ok with that!

I am glad you are feeling better.  Enjoy your extra time off.

[Harriet Vane]

4 hours ago, Jean in Newcastle said:

The "personal responsibility" people are getting their wish.  Let's see if any of them actually take personal responsibility.  Though my area, which was very compliant on the mandates is still masking voluntarily at about a 90% level in the secular venues I've been.  "Christian" venues, not at all - except me. 

I'm right there with you, Jean. Dh and I are usually the only ones masked at church. We've been sticking to small group only for that reason. Out in public hardly anyone wears a mask where I am as well. 

[Jean in Newcastle]

1 minute ago, Harriet Vane said:

I'm right there with you, Jean. Dh and I are usually the only ones masked at church. We've been sticking to small group only for that reason. Out in public hardly anyone wears a mask where I am as well. 

I should give the caveat though that our tiny tiny church has only half of the members there in person - the rest are still joining us online.   And only half of the members in person means around ten unmasked people - so not exactly a huge superspreader type of venue but still. . . . 

[Harriet Vane]

10 minutes ago, Jean in Newcastle said:

I should give the caveat though that our tiny tiny church has only half of the members there in person - the rest are still joining us online.   And only half of the members in person means around ten unmasked people - so not exactly a huge superspreader type of venue but still. . . . 

Meanwhile, my large church sits right in the middle of a covid-denying stronghold. It's definite superspreader potential at church and around. It grieves me terribly. 

[kbutton]

This article had some nuances that I have not seen about long Covid:

https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/long-covid-risk-factors-and-how-to-mitigate-them?c=736162384568&fbclid=IwAR2r9bZ5vLgF2F2AdFhL8jO-LJ4Q15lS8tM-wM2G_M8mYlwHM2QwIJWepuI#Mitigation

 

[mommyoffive]

Once again, America is in denial about signs of a fresh Covid wave | Eric Topol | The Guardian

[ktgrok]

and...just spent all the money ordering more KF94 masks. Sigh. (we need XL for DH, L for me and DS22, M for DD 12 and S for DS 9 and DD 4 - that adds up!)

[Ting Tang]

So, my children are often the only ones wearing KF94 masks, but now, they are the only ones wearing masks in their group classes.  Does that offer any protection at all, or am I just being ridiculous to think it's doing anything for them when nobody else is masking?   

[Spryte]

5 minutes ago, Ting Tang said:

So, my children are often the only ones wearing KF94 masks, but now, they are the only ones wearing masks in their group classes.  Does that offer any protection at all, or am I just being ridiculous to think it's doing anything for them when nobody else is masking?   

I think it’s still worthwhile. Obviously it’s better if everyone in a group is masked, but still good.

Anecdotally, I spent around ten hours in an ER waiting room of 90 very sick people at the height of the Delta wave here. One woman, less than 10 ft away, was vomiting and coughing continually and did not/could not mask. There were more sick people, but she was the worst. I had on a KN95 and was sure I would get sick. But nope, I was fine. Negative PCR five days later. 

[mommyoffive]

CDC 

[Ting Tang]

22 minutes ago, Spryte said:

I think it’s still worthwhile. Obviously it’s better if everyone in a group is masked, but still good.

Anecdotally, I spent around ten hours in an ER waiting room of 90 very sick people at the height of the Delta wave here. One woman, less than 10 ft away, was vomiting and coughing continually and did not/could not mask. There were more sick people, but she was the worst. I had on a KN95 and was sure I would get sick. But nope, I was fine. Negative PCR five days later. 

That is good!  Thank you for sharing. My daughter said she wished her class could see her smile (she is 7). It is hard to make a 7 year old understand why she is the only one wearing a mask anymore.  I told her I wanted to try my best to keep her healthy so that she could do the things she likes to do outside of class. I have had to be honest with her and tell her there is still a chance she could catch any kind of illness.  I just hope, if Covid is here to stay, we have OTC treatment options and don't have to do this forever.  It seems like it is not going away.  

 

[Pam in CT]

1 minute ago, mommyoffive said:

CDC 

That looks so promising, but I'm getting SO discouraged about rising cases elsewhere in the world just as we're dropping the last precautionary measures and we know immunity from EITHER Omicron-surge infections OR boosters is starting to wane.

It's only a matter of time before we're walloped again, and the time looks like it'll be weeks rather than months. I feel like the intervals of reprieve between the wave crests is shortening each time. Sigh.

[ktgrok]

36 minutes ago, Ting Tang said:

So, my children are often the only ones wearing KF94 masks, but now, they are the only ones wearing masks in their group classes.  Does that offer any protection at all, or am I just being ridiculous to think it's doing anything for them when nobody else is masking?   

It still helps. There is a chart somewhere comparing no one masking, you masking, others masking, etc. It was best with everyone masking but there was still protection from masking yourself. Just not as much. 

[Hilltopmom]

13 minutes ago, Ting Tang said:

That is good!  Thank you for sharing. My daughter said she wished her class could see her smile (she is 7). It is hard to make a 7 year old understand why she is the only one wearing a mask anymore.  I told her I wanted to try my best to keep her healthy so that she could do the things she likes to do outside of class. I have had to be honest with her and tell her there is still a chance she could catch any kind of illness.  I just hope, if Covid is here to stay, we have OTC treatment options and don't have to do this forever.  It seems like it is not going away.  

 

Hugs.

My own children are the only ones in their class wearing masks and I’m one of the only teachers. They have complained a bit but it’s non negotiable for me.

I did come down with it last week once my students stopped wearing masks but my kids haven’t gotten it from me yet.

 

[kbutton]

1 hour ago, Ting Tang said:

So, my children are often the only ones wearing KF94 masks, but now, they are the only ones wearing masks in their group classes.  Does that offer any protection at all, or am I just being ridiculous to think it's doing anything for them when nobody else is masking?   

DH is a frontline healthcare worker who has been wearing N95s, surgical style masks, and KF94s almost the whole pandemic, and he's not had it that we know of. Most of his co-workers have, but they've mostly gotten it from family gatherings and such. 

[mommyoffive]

How bad could a wave of the BA.2 omicron variant be for the US? Here's the key indicator (wisn.com)

An analysis by the U.K. Health Security Agency shows that the BA.2 subvariant of omicron is about 80% more contagious than BA.1

So while a BA.2 wave in the U.S. may not be as severe as it is for Hong Kong, it might not be the same experience as the U.K. is having, either.

"What we see happening in the U.K. is going to be perhaps a better story than we should be expecting here," said Keri Althoff, an epidemiologist at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health

[mommyoffive]

2 hours ago, Pam in CT said:

That looks so promising, but I'm getting SO discouraged about rising cases elsewhere in the world just as we're dropping the last precautionary measures and we know immunity from EITHER Omicron-surge infections OR boosters is starting to wane.

It's only a matter of time before we're walloped again, and the time looks like it'll be weeks rather than months. I feel like the intervals of reprieve between the wave crests is shortening each time. Sigh.

Yep.  It has me very down this week.  I thought all the info was we were coming out of this.