Omicron anecdata?

[mommyoffive]

[Pam in CT]

The first 20 months into this, I never expected to be HAPPY to see CT going into RED; but, I will now take it as an improvement over burgundy.

Sigh.

Hoping the rest of the regions start turning a similar corner soon.

 

[mommyoffive]

Denmark becomes first EU country to lift all Covid-19 restrictions (msn.com)

[Spryte]

Anecdata:

Yesterday we had our cleaners over for the first time since Dec. They are a mom and daughter owned business, and have lost a lot of employees due to Covid. Both had Covid in Dec, and have only been able to start work now. They were very ill.

The daughter is 23, normal weight, says she has no pre-existing conditions. I believe her. She did not have to go to the hospital, but lost 15 lbs, and was terribly ill. She is rail thin now, and looks like someone who has been ill.

The mom, though. Yikes. She ended up in hospital, pneumonia, almost died. It was very, very bad. She is moving slowly now, but not well. Daughter teared up, talking about it. We had been talking throughout the months, but not in person till yesterday, and it was intense.

The daughter loves my mom, and asked after her. She knows my mom had Covid in Jan, too, and that it was mild. 

And then … daughter asked if my mom had had her shots. I said yes, three shots. And daughter said, “oh, that’s why it was so mild. The doctors all told us that ours was so much worse because we didn’t get our shots.” 

I almost fell over. I had no idea they were unvaccinated prior to this!

So that’s my anecdata of the day. My mom’s case was mild, my cleaner’s mom had a near brush with death. 

FWIW, both mom and daughter have since gotten their first shots. So that’s good.

[kbutton]

3 minutes ago, Spryte said:

And then … daughter asked if my mom had had her shots. I said yes, three shots. And daughter said, “oh, that’s why it was so mild. The doctors all told us that ours was so much worse because we didn’t get our shots.” 

I almost fell over. I had no idea they were unvaccinated prior to this!

So that’s my anecdata of the day. My mom’s case was mild, my cleaner’s mom had a near brush with death. 

FWIW, both mom and daughter have since gotten their first shots. So that’s good.

I think it's remarkable that she volunteered this information in that context vs. being defensive about not being vaccinated. Good for them getting their shots!

My DH is seeing a few patients who are this way (and a few are genuinely lost, not really people who have the means to be savvy), but most are just part of the death cult. 

[Spryte]

1 minute ago, kbutton said:

I think it's remarkable that she volunteered this information in that context vs. being defensive about not being vaccinated. Good for them getting their shots!

My DH is seeing a few patients who are this way (and a few are genuinely lost, not really people who have the means to be savvy), but most are just part of the death cult. 

Yes, I think that was pretty amazing, that she brought it up in the way she did, and was completely open about being unvaccinated and open to calling it a mistake. We then went straight into comparing shot side effects. She had a sore arm and slight fever for a few days after hers (she’s only had one so far). I don’t feel like she was invested in being unvaccinated like some people who have taken it on as part of their identity. 
 

The other unvaccinated couple that I know who both ended up in hospital for ten days — almost died, both of them, and left two young kids — they are still unvaccinated and will never be. I don’t get it.

[kbutton]

14 minutes ago, Spryte said:

The other unvaccinated couple that I know who both ended up in hospital for ten days — almost died, both of them, and left two young kids — they are still unvaccinated and will never be. I don’t get it.

It's nuts. 

A local homeschooler just died, leaving relatively young kids behind. They were dependent on her income. She had a vaccine freedom ring around her FB picture. I don't know her status, but one can infer it was likely unvaccinated. It took weeks for her to die, and I am pretty sure she was ill before Christmas. I don't understand people who will not "risk" a shot to avoid that kind of death or permanent disability. 

[mommyoffive]

From hydroxychloroquine to ivermectin: what are the anti-viral properties of anti-parasitic drugs to combat SARS-CoV-2? (nih.gov)

[mommyoffive]

Here comes the under 5 vaccine! But I have questions... (substack.com)

[KSera]

52 minutes ago, mommyoffive said:

From hydroxychloroquine to ivermectin: what are the anti-viral properties of anti-parasitic drugs to combat SARS-CoV-2? (nih.gov)

Just a note that this one is a year old (I checked the date because the first line said that we still had no effective anti SARS-CoV-2 drugs other than dexamethasone, so I knew it must be old).

[fraidycat]

I thought I would come back here and update with our anecdata.

I believe DS was the source of our household infection, though he never tested positive. I'm not sure he was even testing properly, I just took his word for it. 
 

Anyway, about 3 weeks ago he had a slightly scratchy throat for a day or two that turned into a slight tickly cough for another 2 days - so super mild.

Two weeks ago Saturday, DH came down with cold/flu symptoms - stuffy nose, feverish, tired, slight headache. 
 

Monday night DD developed same symptoms as DH. 
 

Tuesday morning, I woke up with a fever. My ears felt congested (had that crackly sound and "popped" when I yawned). Other than the fever for one day, it would have never dawned on me that I could be sick. I never developed any other symptoms.

Dh and DD tested + on that Tuesday. I didn't test, just assumed + at that point.

DH tested - on the Sunday (day 8), so he went out and got some groceries. I tested that day and confirmed +, so stayed home.

Overall, DH and DD had it the worst for about a week each, and it was like a medium head cold for them. DS and I were super mild - I would say that mine was almost asymptomatic aside from the slight fever for one day since I get "dry congestion" every winter from forced air heat, so the crackly, popping ears is normal for me quite often.

 

Edited February 2, 2022 by fraidycat

[mommyoffive]

Researchers are asking why some countries were better prepared for covid. One surprising answer: Trust. (msn.com)

 

As Stealth Omicron BA.2 COVID Variant Found in 30 States, Here's What We Know (msn.com)

[mommyoffive]

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Update: FDA Advisory Committee Meeting to Discuss Request for Authorization of Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 Vaccine for Children 6 Months Through 4 Years of Age | FDA

[Laura Corin]

On 1/31/2022 at 12:38 PM, Laura Corin said:

The home has been closed to visitors due to Covid.  It's a small home (space for 20 residents) so they don't announce numbers of people infected because it would be hard to maintain privacy.  We would be told if Mum had Covid and would be allowed to visit if she was very ill.  These are the figures for the county:

Two residents are symptomatic and have tested positive.  All the other residents have been tested and they are awaiting results. The home will be closed for at least ten days.

[Eos]

On 2/1/2022 at 8:16 AM, Pam in CT said:

The first 20 months into this, I never expected to be HAPPY to see CT going into RED; but, I will now take it as an improvement over burgundy.

Sigh.

Hoping the rest of the regions start turning a similar corner soon.

 

 

Edited February 6, 2023 by Eos

[MEmama]

27 minutes ago, Eos said:

Maine turned from red to burgundy, sigh.  I liked being the outlier in the corner.

Same, but to be fair I think we were “only” red because of the enormous backlog of tests. I’d rather see accurate data than have false hope, you know? 

[mommyoffive]

Covid-19 Omicron outbreak: Booster vaccines gap shrinks from four months to three months - NZ Herald

[MEmama]

DS tested positive yesterday. He must not have been feeling great on Monday because he opted to take his classes online— I’m so grateful he has that opportunity. So far it’s just a sore throat and occasional headache, fingers crossed that’s the worst it will be. He’s fully vaxxed and got his booster in December.

Vaccines, boosters and tests are available free all over campus. Masking indoors is still mandated. He's sure he picked it up when he went out to a restaurant with friends over the weekend- they have all tested positive. He’s in good spirits all things considered. 

[heartlikealion]

Dd said that her new mask was too hard to breathe in (I think the model is Posh). We did find a Mass to attend where we were pretty socially distanced in our pew (had pew to ourselves and no one directly behind or in front of us). I ended up giving up and saying ok just wear it down the Communion line (she likes to get a blessing). So after that experience I think we will continue to shelve face-to-face Sunday school. And I can't realistically expect her to keep her mask on at her school. She said she has a stack of masks in her cubby. I need to email the teacher to make sure they don't think the KF94 is disposable after one use. She probably has one of those in there. 

Ds is still anti wearing his mask and I gave up and didn't make him wear it. The first time I got the new masks in the mail I left some with stbx and he sent ds to school with one but assumes ds didn't keep it on. I'm suspecting the same. 

My father, who is unvaccinated, is feeling like it's all pointless and doesn't know if he will continue to mask. I urged him to keep masking as the good quality masks are helpful. I told him where to order a few weeks ago but am guessing he never did. 

It all seems so futile right now but I will continue to mask. I guess that's all I can control, afterall. 

[TCB]

My brother, 56,  started experiencing symptoms 11 days ago and tested positive 9 days ago. Assuming it was Omicron as that is prevalent here. He has several risk factors. He had 1 dose of J&J in the summer. He was able to have a virtual appointment the same day he tested positive, day 2-3 of symptoms, and was approved for Paxlovid and started it that evening. His symptoms had been scratchy throat, congestion, fatigue, and they stayed mild and pretty much went away after several days. Who knows, he may have continued with mild symptoms whatever, but we were all really relieved he could get the anti virals.

[Ting Tang]

One of our hospital systems tries to post updates.  You can't tell some people, but I *think* it is still beneficial to be vaccinated and boosted, if you are trying to avoid the worst-case scenarios at least.  

[TCB]

7 minutes ago, KrisTom said:

One of our hospital systems tries to post updates.  You can't tell some people, but I *think* it is still beneficial to be vaccinated and boosted, if you are trying to avoid the worst-case scenarios at least.  

I think you have to also look at it in the context of % vaccinated in the area. In an area with more people vaxed this scenario would be better than in an area with low % vaxed.

[Ting Tang]

29 minutes ago, TCB said:

I think you have to also look at it in the context of % vaccinated in the area. In an area with more people vaxed this scenario would be better than in an area with low % vaxed.

Well, this hospital system serves a large area in Illinois, from a close Chicago suburb to a central Illinois city.  It is a major hospital in our area, which is lower-vaxxed. 

[KSera]

16 minutes ago, KrisTom said:

Well, this hospital system serves a large area in Illinois, from a close Chicago suburb to a central Illinois city.  It is a major hospital in our area, which is lower-vaxxed. 

Even places with lower vaccination rates (which is most often still over 50% of the population but occasionally slightly lower), the elderly people most likely to be hospitalized are usually still overwhelmingly vaccinated. Looking at Illinois's vaccine data, 87% of the population 65+ is fully vaccinated and 95% has at least one dose. In that context, the graphs above are even more stunningly unbalanced. The unvaccinated make up only 5% of the 65+ population.

[Ting Tang]

13 minutes ago, KSera said:

Even places with lower vaccination rates (which is most often still over 50% of the population but occasionally slightly lower), the elderly people most likely to be hospitalized are usually still overwhelmingly vaccinated. Looking at Illinois's vaccine data, 87% of the population 65+ is fully vaccinated and 95% has at least one dose. In that context, the graphs above are even more stunningly unbalanced. The unvaccinated make up only 5% of the 65+ population.

It’s sad. We’ve had a lot of death in our county recently, and they aren’t all elderly. 

[iamonlyone]

Anecdata: We are all fully vaxed and boosted, and our children live away from home in different states. Within the last 10 days:

Dd27 Covid positive, felt awful with all the symptoms—fever for about 3 days. At day 5 (today) she is required to return to her professional ballet company rehearsal and her preschool teaching job if she got a negative rapid test. (Yesterday she wasn't able to complete an easy yoga workout, so I don't know how that went!)

Dd22 sick for about 10 days, but only extreme congestion and fatigue. Loss of smell only on days 7-9.

Dh maybe Covid? What do you all think? He had all symptoms except GI and loss of taste/smell. He missed a week of work and is still not 100%. It seemed  to him like a very different illness than he has ever had, and he was exposed in a couple settings. However, he had a negative rapid home test on the first day of strong symptoms (day 2), a negative PCR on day 2, and a negative drive-through rapid on day 5. How could he get all those negatives if he had Covid? Is that possible?

I'm glad that the tests say he didn't have it, but I'm also not looking forward to doing all the isolation (he stayed in our master bedroom/bathroom) and ventilation measures again if either one of us does test positive at some point!

[MEmama]

20 hours ago, MEmama said:

DS tested positive yesterday. He must not have been feeling great on Monday because he opted to take his classes online— I’m so grateful he has that opportunity. So far it’s just a sore throat and occasional headache, fingers crossed that’s the worst it will be. He’s fully vaxxed and got his booster in December.

Vaccines, boosters and tests are available free all over campus. Masking indoors is still mandated. He's sure he picked it up when he went out to a restaurant with friends over the weekend- they have all tested positive. He’s in good spirits all things considered. 

Quoting myself to update: DS reports he feels completely asymptomatic today! Whoooo hooooo!

Vaccines+booster ftw. 
 

He will follow all campus protocol for returning to class and ending isolation, of course. Hopefully he’s on the other side of it! 🙂 

[Kassia]

11 minutes ago, MEmama said:

Quoting myself to update: DS reports he feels completely asymptomatic today! Whoooo hooooo!

 

Wonderful news!  🙂  

[YaelAldrich]

1 hour ago, MEmama said:

Quoting myself to update: DS reports he feels completely asymptomatic today! Whoooo hooooo!

Vaccines+booster ftw. 
 

He will follow all campus protocol for returning to class and ending isolation, of course. Hopefully he’s on the other side of it! 🙂 

Tell him not to be upset if he goes back and forth with Covid symptoms. Most of my friends who got covid recently have weeks consisting of good and bad days alternating.

[mommyoffive]

Europe entering Covid 'ceasefire' - WHO (msn.com)

[Kanin]

2 hours ago, MEmama said:

Quoting myself to update: DS reports he feels completely asymptomatic today! Whoooo hooooo!

 

What a relief! Yahoo!

[mommyoffive]

[MEmama]

56 minutes ago, YaelAldrich said:

Tell him not to be upset if he goes back and forth with Covid symptoms. Most of my friends who got covid recently have weeks consisting of good and bad days alternating.

I’m seeing a lot of that too. I’ll mention it, thanks! 

[Kassia]

1 hour ago, YaelAldrich said:

Tell him not to be upset if he goes back and forth with Covid symptoms. Most of my friends who got covid recently have weeks consisting of good and bad days alternating.

that's what is happening with my dd.  She had a few days of symptoms, got better, then got different symptoms a few days after that.  It will be two weeks tomorrow since symptoms began and she has a cough now.  

[MEmama]

5 minutes ago, Kassia said:

that's what is happening with my dd.  She had a few days of symptoms, got better, then got different symptoms a few days after that.  It will be two weeks tomorrow since symptoms began and she has a cough now.  

Yikes. 😞 

I'm not fully breathing a sigh of relief for DS yet but feeling cautiously optimistic. The on and off symptoms are exactly why I’m fully isolating this entire month before surgery— that sounds tough on the immune system. I hope she’s doing okay with it mentally, I imagine it’s draining— especially at her age and trying to stay up with classes. Sending her healing energy! 

[Pam in CT]

Re how statistics work

15 hours ago, TCB said:

I think you have to also look at it in the context of % vaccinated in the area. In an area with more people vaxed this scenario would be better than in an area with low % vaxed.

Right.

In my state, 92.6% of the total population (not ages 12+) has had at least 1 dose.  

In my county, that rate is 95+%.

So if vaccination "made no difference," then 95+% of hospitalizations and deaths would be of vaccinated people.

That is what "no difference" means: that outcomes for people with the "no difference" intervention are the same as outcomes for people without the "no difference" intervention.

AND THAT'S NOT WHAT THE DATA SHOWS.

CT isn't doing the regularly-updated easy visualizations of vax v unvax outcomes that NYC is doing; but the state is collecting the same data here (see pp. 7-9).  As of last week,

Quote

Compared to being vaccinated, being unvaccinated currently has the following relative risk:

•3 Times higher risk of being infected with COVID-19

•13 Times higher risk of dying from COVID-19

•8 Times higher risk of being hospitalized from COVID-19

What the second chart illustrates is that although COVID deaths spiked during our Omicron wave... death rates among the vaccinated barely moved.

Even though, if you look at the underlying data separated out by age cohort on p.7 , a significant portion of deaths occurred among the vaccinated population, particularly in the cohorts aged 65+ (where our vax rate is 98+%.  

Which means, "vax makes no difference" would mean that portion "should be" 98+%.  The actual rates are 16.6% for ages 65-74, and 68.1% for ages 75+).

[Kassia]

51 minutes ago, MEmama said:

Yikes. 😞 

I'm not fully breathing a sigh of relief for DS yet but feeling cautiously optimistic. The on and off symptoms are exactly why I’m fully isolating this entire month before surgery— that sounds tough on the immune system. I hope she’s doing okay with it mentally, I imagine it’s draining— especially at her age and trying to stay up with classes. Sending her healing energy! 

I hope this was the end for your ds and I think it's very wise to be cautious before your surgery!  

She seems to be doing okay for now but I'm even more worried now that it's a cough in her chest.  Hoping for the best.  Timing was good since they had virtual classes for the first three weeks of school.  They go back in person on Monday.  That should be interesting if she still has a cough - everyone will stay away, that's for sure! 

 

[wathe]

 

18 hours ago, TCB said:

I think you have to also look at it in the context of % vaccinated in the area. In an area with more people vaxed this scenario would be better than in an area with low % vaxed.

 

2 hours ago, Pam in CT said:

Re how statistics work

Right.

In my state, 92.6% of the total population (not ages 12+) has had at least 1 dose.  

In my county, that rate is 95+%.

So if vaccination "made no difference," then 95+% of hospitalizations and deaths would be of vaccinated people.

That is what "no difference" means: that outcomes for people with the "no difference" intervention are the same as outcomes for people without the "no difference" intervention.

AND THAT'S NOT WHAT THE DATA SHOWS.

CT isn't doing the regularly-updated easy visualizations of vax v unvax outcomes that NYC is doing; but the state is collecting the same data here (see pp. 7-9).  As of last week,

What the second chart illustrates is that although COVID deaths spiked during our Omicron wave... death rates among the vaccinated barely moved.

Even though, if you look at the underlying data separated out by age cohort on p.7 , a significant portion of deaths occurred among the vaccinated population, particularly in the cohorts aged 65+ (where our vax rate is 98+%.  

Which means, "vax makes no difference" would mean that portion "should be" 98+%.  The actual rates are 16.6% for ages 65-74, and 68.1% for ages 75+).

Yes, base rate fallacy.   You really need the rate per population in order to interpret absolute hospitalization numbers.  My province is bad for this - the official provincial site posts only the absolute hospitalization numbers.  The Science Advisory Table posts the same data in terms of rate per million population.  

Official provincial government data site publishes these brown pie charts (absolute numbers only).  Makes it look like vaccination doesn't work very well.  The Science Advisory Table publishes the orange and blue bar graphs and line graphs (rates per million population).  They tell a completely different story - The Science Advisory Table tells a more nuanced story and a more honest story, I think..

**note that "fully vaccinated" means 2 doses here.  Booster data are not incorporated into hospitalization numbers here, sadly.  Science Table uses the more neutral/factual "vaccinated with at least 2 doses"  to label the same data.

Edited to add links

 

Edited February 3, 2022 by wathe

[mommyoffive]

The CDC is finally recognizing 'natural immunity' — legislators should follow suit (msn.com)

 

U.S. Covid-19 Hospitalizations Continue Tracking Downward (msn.com)

[mommyoffive]

Why The Rollout Of Covid-19 Vaccines For Young Children Is So Confusing (forbes.com)

[mommyoffive]

In a break with federal guidelines, San Francisco allows second COVID-19 booster for all J&J takers (msn.com)

[mommyoffive]

https://thriftytraveler.com/news/latest-travel-news-coronavirus/?utm_source=ActiveCampaign&utm_medium=email&utm_content=[Daily+Beat]+✈️+Could+COVID+Testing+to+Fly+Home+End+Soon%3F&utm_campaign=Daily+Beat+-+2%2F3%2F2022&vgo_ee=AYLxciqtJQ0Yi6xu%2FuWTYb35hO7C%2FF3J%2FgQB9Uu3XAY%3D

 

Airlines Urge Biden to Drop International Travel Testing Rule

Thursday, Feb. 3 at 8:30 a.m.
After more than a year in place, the nation’s largest airlines and other business groups say it’s time to drop the requirement to get tested for COVID-19 in order to fly back to the U.S. from any international trip.

Edited February 3, 2022 by mommyoffive

[Laura Corin]

On 2/2/2022 at 11:16 AM, Laura Corin said:

Two residents are symptomatic and have tested positive.  All the other residents have been tested and they are awaiting results. The home will be closed for at least ten days.

Nine residents have now tested positive but not my mum. That's about half the residents.  She's solitary by nature,  but has needed more close-contact personal care recently, so more staff interaction. 

Edited February 4, 2022 by Laura Corin

[MEmama]

16 minutes ago, Laura Corin said:

Nine residents have now tested positive but not my mum. That's about half the residents.  She's solitary by nature,  but has needed more close-contact personal care recently, so more staff interaction. 

I hope she remains safe— I can imagine you must feel nervous. 

[Laura Corin]

7 minutes ago, MEmama said:

I hope she remains safe— I can imagine you must feel nervous. 

Mixed feelings, honestly.  She feels that she has lived long enough at 97, and is distressed by the indignities of her failing bodily systems.

Edited February 4, 2022 by Laura Corin

[Pam in CT]

(( Laura ))

Hoping for physical comfort and psychic peace for your mom and you, both.

[mommyoffive]

Two underdog but game changing vaccines: NVX-CoV2373 (Novavax) and CORBEVAX (substack.com)

[mommyoffive]

How Many COVID Vaccine Doses Do Little Kids Need? - The Atlantic

 

US army begins discharging soldiers who refuse Covid vaccine | US military | The Guardian

 

Covid-19 vaccine for younger children will face an 'odd' authorization process - CNN

[kbutton]

2 hours ago, mommyoffive said:

Two underdog but game changing vaccines: NVX-CoV2373 (Novavax) and CORBEVAX (substack.com)

I subscribe, but usually see your posts here first, lol!

I have been wondering about the Texas Children's Hospital vaccine--they had information out very early on that they had relevant research, then information about them dropped off the face of the earth.

Quote

This work was not led by a big (or small) pharmaceutical company but by two scientists at Texas Children’s Hospital and Baylor College of Medicine: Drs. Maria Elena Bottazzi and Peter Hotez. The two have been working together on coronavirus vaccines for the past two decades, including the development of a SARS vaccine in 2003. So when the pandemic hit, they were able to quickly pivot to COVID19. They were not funded through Operation Warp Speed. In fact, they had a very difficult time receiving funding from the government so they turned to philanthropic support, including from Tito’s Vodka.

...And, two days ago, Drs. Hotez and Bottazzi were nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize.

 

 

[mommyoffive]

Moderna's Covid vaccine for teens awaits OK as regulators review heart inflammation risk (cnbc.com)