What if.....

[frogger]

16 minutes ago, AmandaVT said:

We have 14 day quarantines in place for people coming from counties with more than 400 cases per million people. https://accd.vermont.gov/covid-19/restart/cross-state-travel  Honor system rules, no guards. Where do you live with guards on village roads - is it working? People seem to be trying their best here - restaurants are allowed to open to indoor dining, but from what I see, most are only doing take out and outdoor dining still. The coffee shop I like is only allowing two people inside at a time, masks required. They are technically allowed to have more inside but they're being more cautious and I see that in a lot of places here still. Except school plans, which are apparently to just throw open the doors in 5 weeks because everything will be just fine. 

 

Alaska. Most villages are off the road system but also don't have much for medical care. There are some that have a road to them though. 

 

[Bootsie]

2 hours ago, Pam in CT said:

And this disconnect is the reason the shape of the US curve over time is so wholly different than our peer nations' curve -- why our case #s never went DOWN, only plateaued high before  going back UP...

... and why our peer nations are now able to re-open schools, with protocols and caution

... and why our peer nations' Economy!! are able to pick back up on fundamentals, while ours has stalled on every indicator except the ever-roaring stock market.

 

I am curious who you consider to be the peer nations.  I have had difficulty finding good comparisons.  If you compare European countries to equivalent sized-US states, you can find examples of curves that do have approximately the same shape.  I have not been able to find a curve for "Europe" to compare to a curve with the US.  Some countries, such as Italy and Spain had a peak and then saw a drop in cases--but the peak was bad.  Spain had dropped to a 3-day moving average in the 300s cases per day at the beginning of July--that has now more than tripled and the current 7-day moving average is 1368.  Belgium, Spain, Italy, France, and the UK all have higher deaths/million that the US does.  Belgium's rate is almost twice that of the US with less than half as many cases/million reported.     

The EU is expecting the economy to shrink by 8.3% this year (only two months ago they were predicting only a 7.4% decline)  https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/21/economy/eu-stimulus-coronavirus/index.html?ref=hvper.com   

[EmseB]

30 minutes ago, Ktgrok said:

Right, but we have to prioritize and make some sacrifices. We just do. Either that sacrifice is in human lives and medical costs, or it is in dollar costs and lost revenue. But there is no way to avoid pain here. 

And if people would wear a mask, and distance, and not hang out unmasked at birthday parties and bridal showers, spreading it, maybe more businesses could be open and making money. But all that involves priorities, and people sitting down and figuring out a plan, and as a nation we haven't wanted to do that. People dont' want to prioritize, they want it all. 

Right, but there are no certain exact right behavior modifications for eradicating a virus unless absolutely everyone stays home for a month, and maybe not even then, and we all know that isn't possible. So yes, we prioritize life events, human contact, need to eat, need to make a living, some luxuries...yes, we all do this.

So everyone wants to say they are not talking about all or nothing, but nothing short of no one going out at all is going to keep this from cycling through the population. So we are working from priorties, as you say.

So if you are like me, happy at home, don't need physical contact with friends, don't have people outside the home to take care of, don't want extra curricular activities, don't have a job or business to worry about, don't have essential travel, have anxiety about sicknesses in the best of times...then all of the quarantine is pretty awesome. Priorties are easy! But take out just one of those factors and then you have an entirely different set of priorities. So my prioritizing as you say looks a lot different than the woman whom I am paying to grocery shop for me at Walmart. She now has to be in the world, find childcare for her kids, come home every day...and she is being told that her desire to attend a backyard BBQ is the wrong priority. I also have to look at my kids watching the neighbor kids interact every single day on slip and slides and such...and if your kids aren't pretty affected by something like that happening for MONTHS, then I say sincerely that you should thank God for their emotional resilience. I have a couple who are not bothered and at least one who is torn up every day having to obey his mother's wishes. This is messy and I don't think any of us can be on a high horse about choices we make relative to our circumstances, even if they seem frivolous. Even if my neighbors get sick and spread it amongst themselves, there but for the grace of God go I. I can't look down my nose at them letting their kids play together frivolously. I just can't. People earn their living on frivolous these days. A lot of people as unemployment numbers show.

Also, people are talking about 100-ish deaths per day in one state with the exact same language that was being used in NYC for 1,000 deaths per day. It is *hard* to make risk assessments and prioritize based on that kind of reporting of information with no additional context. And yes, as callous as it sounds, context is needed because in any other time, a lot of people die everyday, die too young, die of preventable things that also require prioritizing. I have seen a lot of people simply unwilling to accept that and think that for this virus, no price is too small to pay to avoid one person dying from it, or they make some sort of calculation like 10 people dying per day is okay, but definitely not 30, or 50 or something. It is hard to make priorities right now and I think if we say it isn't we are either being naive or extremely self-righteous.

[ktgrok]

Prioritizing is hard, yes. But that doesn't mean it is impossible. Some are using "hard" as an excuse to do things that are very likely to spread the virus, in areas where that is a real problem. So yeah, I'm going to judge people having an unmasked, not socially distanced barbecue in my area right now. That's just not smart. 

[ktgrok]

6 minutes ago, happysmileylady said:

I think this is come through the lens of the internet.....the truth is that most people DO have priorities and DO understand that there are things that are important and aren't important......the thing is..............everyone's priorities are different.

 

I have actually though had people tell me to my face that they don't want to prioritize things, they want it all. Seriously. 

And what we prioritize should be mostly based on the actual science. 

Edited July 22, 2020 by Ktgrok

[ktgrok]

1 minute ago, happysmileylady said:

Well there are crazies everywhere.  Everyone has one or two in their own family.  Are you saying the vast majority of people that you are speaking to about this thing on a regular basis are telling you that?  

There are a lot of them, yes. Which may explain our current situation here, when you think about it. 

Edited July 22, 2020 by Ktgrok

[ktgrok]

Also, to be clear, my husband works for a travel/vacation related company. He's been on partial furlough with the corresponding pay cut since March, and will be until at last October. IF he continues to have a job, which is NOT certain by any means. He's very vulnerable to being let go. They already did let go others.

And I still think people shouldn't be traveling. 

Because the greater community good can't be based on my personal needs/wants.

[frogger]

1 hour ago, EmseB said:

This line of thinking is fine until you are a vendor or someone who makes their living off of renting or hosting something like this, or a city or county official looking at million dollar shortfalls because no one is paying the taxes on using the local convention center. Of course! most of us can go without carnivals, amusement parks, conventions, and all sorts of things. Unfortunately, the taxes from those big events pay for a lot of local services like police, fire, etc., in a lot of places not to mention direct wage loss from those sorts of things.

I'm not saying there is a good answer or that we should be doing those things (although if protests are not driving spread, that leaves a LOT of room for outside events like carnivals), but it bothers me when people simply write them off like they don't involve jobs and major tax revenue and services we all take for granted.

 

I am seeing outright rebellion. I went to a book club once in June. Not only did no one mask but they wanted everyone huddled up and then they started singing. We have never ever sung in book club before! I was out. 

I think we as a society are putting too much on businesses. They have the increased costs of sanitation, ppe, supply chain issues on top of decreased capacities, lost revenue in lock down, and now my local Walmart doesn't just have a greeter but has to pay for a couple security guards at their door to deal with maskless crusaders. Covid seems to be testing people's courtesy and many Americans are failing big time.

So governments control the people they can. Elderly trapped in nursing homes or businesses that don't want to be shut down. It's more about who is easy to control then whether it makes sense economically. How does someone keep a group of youngsters from bar hopping together?

I have eaten out more (just take out and delivery) in the last 5 months than the previous 5 years. I'm trying to support local businesses. If everyone were doing that wouldn't local eateries (in places who are open like Alaska) have a lot more revenue?

 

I don't think the virus can be eradicated but it can be slowed with cooperation so hospitals aren't completely overwhelmed but I am so sick of people jumping to the straw man of everyone just wants to lock everyone down forever. It gets old. 

[EmseB]

37 minutes ago, Ktgrok said:

Prioritizing is hard, yes. But that doesn't mean it is impossible. Some are using "hard" as an excuse to do things that are very likely to spread the virus, in areas where that is a real problem. So yeah, I'm going to judge people having an unmasked, not socially distanced barbecue in my area right now. That's just not smart. 

If you are unwilling to factor in any other possible circumstances, I think we're probably at an impasse. I do think it is a privileged pov, but we probably disagree on that too.

People are working shoulder-to-shoulder all day long to ensure I don't even have to get out of my car to get groceries, meds, anything. They are then coming home to their families every day. Putting their kids in daycare. Me calling them not smart for bbqing seems disingenous at best and very convenient for me.

[Pam in CT]

re what that "dialed back" space between Total Lockdown and What Life Used to Look Like, looks like

3 hours ago, frogger said:

Ummm, you may live in a dialed back society but for the most part I don't. I mean some of us have dialed back but carnival is happening down town. Most refuse facemasks. Large groups are everywhere. Bar hopping is still a thing. Mega church met with about 500 people (holds 2000) and sang with no masks. People are whining and complaining about ANY restriction. 

Our contact tracers were holding steady but they can't contact hundreds per person. That isn't being reasonable. 

If you are in Connecticut, you likely do live in a more dialed back society because it hit closer to home than it did here. 

Yes, my "dialed back" space looks different than yours in terms of public policy and other organizations' decisions (forex, my religious 'denomination' -- we don't use that word and it's not quite the same as Christian denominations, but close enough -- has opted at the national level to discourage IRL services for the foreseeable future; as has the national and state level organizations of a large non-profit I'm affiliated with locally. Which makes local-level decision making easier).

But Alaskan space is also necessarily dialed back, albeit in a different way. In the tourism industry, international visitors are either precluded entirely from visiting, or would face hard 14-day quarantines if they went: that has a deterrent effect.  My family, my neighbors, several sets of good friends have all had marvelous visits to Alaska over the last five years: but between the COVID risks of flying and the COVID risks of the exact behavior you describe... many folks here will opt not to go there. The Alaskan economy will inevitably dial back because of the virus, whether or not public policy or Alaskan resident behavior dials back.

Our dialed-back looks much more like Amanda describes VT's dialed-back.  And honestly, to the extent we or most of the friends and family around here support any tourism businesses or local hospitality businesses here or in within-driving-distance states... such places/businesses will have to look like *this* dialed back:

2 hours ago, AmandaVT said:

... People seem to be trying their best here - restaurants are allowed to open to indoor dining, but from what I see, most are only doing take out and outdoor dining still. The coffee shop I like is only allowing two people inside at a time, masks required. They are technically allowed to have more inside but they're being more cautious and I see that in a lot of places here still...

... because that's more our zone of reasonable benefit/COVID risk calculation. Sadly, because Alaska is AWESOME, flying to Alaska and hopping on a cruise and packing into lively port towns is not.

 

And, as you and EmseB correctly point out, there are all kinds of economic consequences to that naturally-occurring dial-back.

2 hours ago, EmseB said:

This line of thinking is fine until you are a vendor or someone who makes their living off of renting or hosting something like this, or a city or county official looking at million dollar shortfalls because no one is paying the taxes on using the local convention center. Of course! most of us can go without carnivals, amusement parks, conventions, and all sorts of things. Unfortunately, the taxes from those big events pay for a lot of local services like police, fire, etc., in a lot of places not to mention direct wage loss from those sorts of things.

I'm not saying there is a good answer or that we should be doing those things (although if protests are not driving spread, that leaves a LOT of room for outside events like carnivals), but it bothers me when people simply write them off like they don't involve jobs and major tax revenue and services we all take for granted.

The tourism industry -- like all other faces of the hospitality industry writ large, from the global cruise conglomerates all the way to the local dive bar -- *do* involve jobs and tax revenue and services and livelihoods all the way down. It *does* matter that they're dialed back, whether through explicit public policy or depressed demand.

(That to my mind is an argument for safety net/ emergency net safeguards, but that's maybe jumping the topic of this thread.)

 

 

 

1 hour ago, EmseB said:

Right, but there are no certain exact right behavior modifications for eradicating a virus unless absolutely everyone stays home for a month, and maybe not even then, and we all know that isn't possible. So yes, we prioritize life events, human contact, need to eat, need to make a living, some luxuries...yes, we all do this.

So everyone wants to say they are not talking about all or nothing, but nothing short of no one going out at all is going to keep this from cycling through the population. So we are working from priorties, as you say.

So if you are like me, happy at home, don't need physical contact with friends, don't have people outside the home to take care of, don't want extra curricular activities, don't have a job or business to worry about, don't have essential travel, have anxiety about sicknesses in the best of times...then all of the quarantine is pretty awesome. Priorties are easy! But take out just one of those factors and then you have an entirely different set of priorities. So my prioritizing as you say looks a lot different than the woman whom I am paying to grocery shop for me at Walmart. She now has to be in the world, find childcare for her kids, come home every day...and she is being told that her desire to attend a backyard BBQ is the wrong priority. I also have to look at my kids watching the neighbor kids interact every single day on slip and slides and such...and if your kids aren't pretty affected by something like that happening for MONTHS, then I say sincerely that you should thank God for their emotional resilience. I have a couple who are not bothered and at least one who is torn up every day having to obey his mother's wishes. This is messy and I don't think any of us can be on a high horse about choices we make relative to our circumstances, even if they seem frivolous. Even if my neighbors get sick and spread it amongst themselves, there but for the grace of God go I. I can't look down my nose at them letting their kids play together frivolously. I just can't. People earn their living on frivolous these days. A lot of people as unemployment numbers show.

Also, people are talking about 100-ish deaths per day in one state with the exact same language that was being used in NYC for 1,000 deaths per day. It is *hard* to make risk assessments and prioritize based on that kind of reporting of information with no additional context. And yes, as callous as it sounds, context is needed because in any other time, a lot of people die everyday, die too young, die of preventable things that also require prioritizing. I have seen a lot of people simply unwilling to accept that and think that for this virus, no price is too small to pay to avoid one person dying from it, or they make some sort of calculation like 10 people dying per day is okay, but definitely not 30, or 50 or something. It is hard to make priorities right now and I think if we say it isn't we are either being naive or extremely self-righteous.

You're right. There are no certain exact right behavior modifications that will get 100% eradication done. People are sitting in different places with different capacities -- financial, existing baseline health / risk factors, degree of proximity to loved ones, degree of introversion/ extroversion, and a zillion other differences -- to weather this.  Even activities that are less essential and more COVID-transmitting than others (like bars and cruise ships) employ real people with real families. It is extremely hard to make priorities.  There are no good options.

 

But.  It's not extremely self-righteous to say we can't have it all. 

54 minutes ago, Ktgrok said:

I have actually though had people tell me to my face that they don't want to prioritize things, they want it all. Seriously. 

And what we prioritize should be mostly based on the actual science. 

It is magical thinking to insist that because we WANT it all, we deserve and can have it all.  I mean, sure, we deserve it all. Nonetheless.  We can't have it all.

We are a diverse country (which I believe is ultimately a strength); and also a polarized one (which can sometimes be a strength and other times serves us poorly).  I don't expect us to ever have 100% consensus on the exact right behavior modification that, in any event, will not achieve 100% eradication.

I DO think that four months into this, it's long past time to progress beyond magical thinking.  We cannot have it all. 

Edited July 22, 2020 by Pam in CT
omitted words

[EmseB]

8 minutes ago, Dotwithaperiod said:

Preventable death. These deaths by virus are preventable deaths. I don’t give a flip about any religious viewpoint towards this. We’ve had over 140,000 preventable deaths. 

The belief that virus spread is preventable is a lie that a lot of people are believing and I think and is driving a lot of this discussion. Again, when or where has a virus ever been eradicated by behavior modification without a vaccine?

Edited July 22, 2020 by EmseB

[Ausmumof3]

1 minute ago, EmseB said:

The belief that virus spread is preventable is a lie that a lot of people are believing and I think and is driving a lot of this discussion. Again, when or where has a virus ever been eradicated by behavior modification without a vaccine?

Sorry?  I’m wondering if you could explain the first part in a bit more detail.  Why don’t you think virus spread is preventable?  

[Bootsie]

37 minutes ago, Dotwithaperiod said:

Preventable death. These deaths by virus are preventable deaths. I don’t give a flip about any religious viewpoint towards this. We’ve had over 140,000 preventable deaths. 

I would think that every automobile death is more preventable than every virus death.  If we all gave up driving, we could make sure that there is not one death due to automobile accidents.  If humans have any interaction or community, there will be some virus spread, and some death.  Of course, giving up driving would have HUGE costs, that I think most of us would think outweigh the benefits.  

 

[Bootsie]

1 hour ago, Ktgrok said:

I have actually though had people tell me to my face that they don't want to prioritize things, they want it all. Seriously. 

And what we prioritize should be mostly based on the actual science. 

I guess this is an example of differences in how we prioritize things.  I haven't been having prolonged, in-depth conversations, in-person conversations with people outside of my bubble for someone to even have the opportunity to tell me to my face that they don't want to prioritize things.  

[frogger]

59 minutes ago, Pam in CT said:

.

 

And, as you and EmseB correctly point out, there are all kinds of economic consequences to that naturally-occurring dial-back.

The tourism industry -- like all other faces of the hospitality industry writ large, from the global cruise conglomerates all the way to the local dive bar -- *do* involve jobs and tax revenue and services and livelihoods all the way down. It *does* matter that they're dialed back, whether through explicit public policy or depressed demand.

(That to my mind is an argument for safety net/ emergency net safeguards, but that's maybe jumping the topic of this thread.)

 

 

 

You're right. There are no certain exact right behavior modifications that will get 100% eradication done. People are sitting in different places with different capacities -- financial, existing baseline health / risk factors, degree of proximity to loved ones, degree of introversion/ extroversion, and a zillion other differences -- to weather this.  Even activities that are less essential and more COVID-transmitting than others (like bars and cruise ships) employ real people with real families. It is extremely hard to make priorities.  There are no good options.

 

But.  It's not extremely self-righteous to say we can't have it all. 

 

We are a diverse country (which I believe is ultimately a strength); and also a polarized one (which can sometimes be a strength and other times serves us poorly).  I don't expect us to ever have 100% consensus on the exact right behavior modification that, in any event, will not achieve 100% eradication.

I DO think that four months into this, it's long past time to progress beyond magical thinking.  We cannot have it all. 

 

I agree with a lot of this but I'm just quoting to add-

I wish the dialing back could be the most cost effective (not just money but well being etc) and not just those things that government can enforce because we must be forced to look out for our community rather than actually care.

 

I do know that not everyone will agree and I'm ok with that but the outright rebellion (singing with 30+ people in book club? ) is really getting on my nerves when so many others are suffering from Government mandates or other things. I'm ok with going to a bar but why hop from bar to bar for fun?

It costs those who work in tourism so I was ok with allowing testing to replace quarantining (do wish testing occured 3 days after travel though) but really the only things that are happening are things that can be enforced from above.  It would be less costly to businesses if individuals took a little more responsability.  Besides quarantine only works on those who obey. One positive case had to go to partiesbefore his travel test showed up. 

Edited July 22, 2020 by frogger

[ktgrok]

2 hours ago, happysmileylady said:

That’s great that you can afford the pay cut.  Not everyone can.   And the idea of the greater community good is going to be different for everyone.  For some people, the employment rate IS a priority in the greater community good.   

Afford is a relative term. But yes, we are VERY lucky that we are making it, partly due to him working a second job. And partly because we were able to work out an agreement with the mortgage company to defer some payments to the end of the loan. 

And yes, I am fully aware that economic goals are the priority in this country. 

2 hours ago, EmseB said:

If you are unwilling to factor in any other possible circumstances, I think we're probably at an impasse. I do think it is a privileged pov, but we probably disagree on that too.

People are working shoulder-to-shoulder all day long to ensure I don't even have to get out of my car to get groceries, meds, anything. They are then coming home to their families every day. Putting their kids in daycare. Me calling them not smart for bbqing seems disingenous at best and very convenient for me.

Adding more risk, on top of the risk they are already taking, is dangerous. And if they are exposed that much at work, they are then at high risk of exposing others and potentially killing them. So no, you don't get to excuse a non essential activity like a barbecue, and not mask there, or distance, because you are already at risk elsewhere. That's crazy. And it is literally killing people. 

I get that mental health is an issue. I'm in a pretty nice bit of depression and anxiety myself. But you know what won't help my mental health? Getting Covid or giving it to someone, or watching my kids or husband get sick. What would help? People doing all they can to slow this train down. 

1 hour ago, EmseB said:

The belief that virus spread is preventable is a lie that a lot of people are believing and I think and is driving a lot of this discussion. Again, when or where has a virus ever been eradicated by behavior modification without a vaccine?

Forget eradicated, it has at least been significantly controlled. Right now, look at the EU versus the US, and you can see what could happen. 

1 hour ago, Bootsie said:

I guess this is an example of differences in how we prioritize things.  I haven't been having prolonged, in-depth conversations, in-person conversations with people outside of my bubble for someone to even have the opportunity to tell me to my face that they don't want to prioritize things.  

These are neighbors, whom yes, I chat with, from over 6 feet of distance, outside, for a few minutes when I get the mail or am doing lawn work. And in one case a neighbor but in a facebook discussion. 

[Wheres Toto]

3 hours ago, EmseB said:

Right, but there are no certain exact right behavior modifications for eradicating a virus unless absolutely everyone stays home for a month, and maybe not even then, and we all know that isn't possible. So yes, we prioritize life events, human contact, need to eat, need to make a living, some luxuries...yes, we all do this.

Eradicate the virus?  No.  But it's pretty clear now that social distancing when possible and wearing masks when it's not possible makes a huge difference in the spread of the virus.   Not stay home and go nowhere.  Just wear a mask when you do go somewhere.  It really shouldn't be that complicated.

[Pam in CT]

re US "peer nations" managing through this better than we are

4 hours ago, Bootsie said:

I am curious who you consider to be the peer nations.  I have had difficulty finding good comparisons.  If you compare European countries to equivalent sized-US states, you can find examples of curves that do have approximately the same shape.  I have not been able to find a curve for "Europe" to compare to a curve with the US.  Some countries, such as Italy and Spain had a peak and then saw a drop in cases--but the peak was bad.  Spain had dropped to a 3-day moving average in the 300s cases per day at the beginning of July--that has now more than tripled and the current 7-day moving average is 1368.  Belgium, Spain, Italy, France, and the UK all have higher deaths/million that the US does.  Belgium's rate is almost twice that of the US with less than half as many cases/million reported.     

The EU is expecting the economy to shrink by 8.3% this year (only two months ago they were predicting only a 7.4% decline)  https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/21/economy/eu-stimulus-coronavirus/index.html?ref=hvper.com   

You're right - there are multiple ways to think about comparisons and none of them are PRECISELY apples to apples.  

We can consider early-and-badly-hit US states (NY, CA) with early-and-badly-hit developed nations with decent information gathering and dissemination (South Korea, Italy, Spain):

NY (and its NJ/CT environs -- the only real US success story in bringing the curve DOWN and keeping it down over time) 

and CA (which kinda-sorta flattened in April but continues to struggle)

vs South Korea

and Italy

and Spain

(those charts are from Worldometer crunching WHO data)

 

...Or alternatively we can consider the longer trajectory of US as a whole (with all its social diversity and differences in population density and etc of a 325M population) with Europe as a whole (with all its social diversity and differences in population density and etc of a 440M population):

(that one from the Wall Street Journal, slicing ECDC data)

 

Or there are other ways of slicing and dicing -- I personally like the Johns Hopkins visualizations best overall.  And no two societies are ever identical, so we can always construct a plausible argument for why no comparison is ever precisely a Gala apple to a Gala apple.

But the overall shape-of-the-COVID-curve story has a distinct shape.  In the US we never brought cases DOWN.  (NYC did... but the nation did not.)  We flattened, we re-opened far too full throttle, we haven't consistently utilized containment measures like masking and distancing, and now where our peer European nations have only to manage/treat/contact trace a handful of cases, we have (on a smaller population) something like 20x the current known live cases. 

It's not just a health problem.  Even if the economy is the (stated or de facto) policy priority... the economy can't function with that degree of impairment.  Every one of those current cases represents lost productivity to employers, lost income (if not permanent job loss in the current US you come or you're fired employment sector) to employees, childcare disruptions, medical bills, lingering uncertainty about lingering effects. Every one of those hot spots is a blazing billboard to some (not all: some, but enough to dampen demand) to Enter At Your Peril.

[Pen]

 

10 hours ago, BlsdMama said:

It's also the perspective of someone who thinks, in the back of her head and weighs, "Hmm... paralysis of the diaphragm or two weeks of a really awful cold?"

 

Or possibly of the people who get this virus some percent of them will end up with just as devastating long term health problems as you have.  Some perhaps will have worse long term health problems.  

 

Perhaps some will have situations that are unremittingly more painful for example.  Or perhaps with little human and financial resources to get wheelchairs or modify their homes to cope (maybe they haven’t got homes to modify).   

...

 

 

 

 

[ktgrok]

I will admit I'm more grumpy about this than usual (which is pretty grumpy) as I found out today that my mom's neighbors have Covid. They have been socializing with family and friends, and had them all over for the 4th of July. So basically yeah, a barbecue that wasn't needed brought Covid literally next door to my very high risk mom. 

And I'm still waiting on results for my kids' godfather and his wife. 

[Pen]

10 hours ago, BlsdMama said:

This is challenging for me from a Christian perspective.  The moment Covid hit, I felt, "Wow, I'm at high risk.  I could lose the good time I have left," and fear reigned.  I think some do what they do motivated from all sorts of reasons, but mine? Mine was fear.  I remember when my younger cousin died.  "It shouldn't have happened," everyone said.  I remember when my daughter died and everyone said, "What a tragedy. What a mistake."  But where they? From a Christian perspective, is there not a number to our days?  I'm not talking about slapping it on like a banner to excuse living recklessly without care or concern of self or others, but it's a relevant truth of how do we measure "too"early? My grandpa died in his nineties.  It was long before I wanted him to as I found his advice and talking things through with him a balm for my very soul.  I needed him for another 15 years. 😉 He died a few years ago.  I cannot fathom him putting up with this cr@p of not seeing family for two shakes.  

Alive is definitely not better than dead - but again, that's Christian perspective. 😉 😄 

 

It's also the perspective of someone who thinks, in the back of her head and weighs, "Hmm... paralysis of the diaphragm or two weeks of a really awful cold?" It's too flip of a comparison and I know that, I'm being a little rude & sassy. But people are miserable and not just "sad" but locked into nursing homes for the final months of their lives void of human interaction. 

 

 

 

I don’t know the religion of the people who run this nursing home, but to me their behavior fits with Christian values (while a lot of official Christian people seem to be behaving in ways that seem to me to be exceedingly unChristian).

 

Here’s what to me seems the Christian approach to NH issue—and doesn’t give a false duality choice of dead vs all alone.

 

 

 

 

[EmseB]

5 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Sorry?  I’m wondering if you could explain the first part in a bit more detail.  Why don’t you think virus spread is preventable?  

It is preventable if no one goes anywhere or if there is a vaccine. Viruses that don't spread usually aren't able to do so because they are too quickly lethal or we figure out a pharmaceutical way to stop them.

[Ausmumof3]

7 minutes ago, EmseB said:

It is preventable if no one goes anywhere or if there is a vaccine. Viruses that don't spread usually aren't able to do so because they are too quickly lethal or we figure out a pharmaceutical way to stop them.

But we reduce them also by washing hands, expecting people with norovirus in food industries to stay at home, using protection during sex, having decent sanitation.  We prevent viral illness in a tonne of ways.  We might not eliminate them altogether but we definitely reduce them and it’s reflected in life expectancy in countries with good public health.  Also I don’t know if you’ve seen it but there’s a study indicating now that even when social distancing doesn’t prevent Covid infection it seems to result in higher rates of asymptomatic rather than symptomatic infection.  Meaning doing what we can can make a huge impact on the severity of the illness even when it doesn’t totally prevent it.

[EmseB]

15 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

But we reduce them also by washing hands, expecting people with norovirus in food industries to stay at home, using protection during sex, having decent sanitation.  We prevent viral illness in a tonne of ways.  We might not eliminate them altogether but we definitely reduce them and it’s reflected in life expectancy in countries with good public health.  Also I don’t know if you’ve seen it but there’s a study indicating now that even when social distancing doesn’t prevent Covid infection it seems to result in higher rates of asymptomatic rather than symptomatic infection.  Meaning doing what we can can make a huge impact on the severity of the illness even when it doesn’t totally prevent it.

I think where I would differ from your ideas as stated above is to say we *can* prevent viral spread a ton of different ways. A lot of people choose not to or are not able to, the overall spread of viruses isn't something that can be stopped.

Washing hands or buying condoms is hardly asking millions of people to give up their livlihoods and is this easier to accomplish by far, and yet people still choose not to do those simple things. So that is why I said virus spread isn't prevetable, not that you literally couldn't, but human and viral behavior makes is practically impossible.

[Pam in CT]

re "preventable" vs "reducible"

22 minutes ago, EmseB said:

It is preventable if no one goes anywhere or if there is a vaccine. Viruses that don't spread usually aren't able to do so because they are too quickly lethal or we figure out a pharmaceutical way to stop them.

This gets back to binary categorization that impedes problem-solving and our ability actually to expand and maneuver within that dialed-back space we are going to have to live in one way or another, by decision or default.

We can't prevent ALL transmission or COMPLETELY eliminate COVID with the tools at hand. True.

Similarly, as at least two pp noted in this long thread, we can't COMPLETELY eliminate injury and death associated with driving. Also true.

However, with driving, we have both public policies (speed limits, drunk driving laws, mandatory seat belts, laws about texting while driving in some states, and etc) and individual behavior (stopping for breaks so we don't get overtired, planning so that distances aren't longer than we can safely handle and etc) to REDUCE the number of driving injuries and deaths.

Because FEWER driving deaths are better.  So we accept both public policy measures and adapt behavior to REDUCE those deaths even if we can't eliminate them all the way down to 0.

And similarly FEWER COVIC deaths are better even if we can't eliminate them all the way down to 0. That doesn't mean full lockdown for the full duration -- we're nowhere near that now. But it does mean mitigation measures like masking and distancing and smaller groups. And some -- not all, some -- people will make decisions on where to go and what businesses to frequent that based on whether such measures mitigate risk.

Better is better. Even if it falls far short of perfect.

[TCB]

4 hours ago, kdsuomi said:

If the U.S. had closed all state borders you might be able to compare it to Europe. There really is no comparison between the continent full of, relatively, small and independent nations to a huge country with states that can't actually legally close their borders. We aren't even limiting entry for U.S. citizens unlike a lot of countries are doing with their citizens. 

I'm fairly sure most countries have been letting their citizens back in, if they could find a way, and many were positively encouraging their citizens to get home.

[TCB]

9 minutes ago, EmseB said:

I think where I would differ from your ideas as stated above is to say we *can* prevent viral spread a ton of different ways. A lot of people choose not to or are not able to, the overall spread of viruses isn't something that can be stopped.

Washing hands or buying condoms is hardly asking millions of people to give up their livlihoods and is this easier to accomplish by far, and yet people still choose not to do those simple things. So that is why I said virus spread isn't prevetable, not that you literally couldn't, but human and viral behavior makes is practically impossible.

I don't know that anybody is asking millions of people to give up their livlihood. Some of you keep saying stuff like this over and over again, no matter how many times others say that they want people to social distance and wear masks - those 2 states of being, for most people, are not the same. Some people can't do that, and for them it may mean a loss of livlihood, and we should find a way to help them. The reality is that many people don't want to change anything and are insisting on carrying on with life as normal. There is a huge amount of ground between everything shut and carrying on as normal. We need to find that middle ground. Almost everyone who is expressing concern is saying that, but back come post after post saying we want everyone to lose their livlihood. Talk about arguing in circles.

[EmseB]

3 hours ago, Ktgrok said:

I will admit I'm more grumpy about this than usual (which is pretty grumpy) as I found out today that my mom's neighbors have Covid. They have been socializing with family and friends, and had them all over for the 4th of July. So basically yeah, a barbecue that wasn't needed brought Covid literally next door to my very high risk mom. 

And I'm still waiting on results for my kids' godfather and his wife. 

Katie, I'm sorry if the virus is hitting close to home. Truly I am. I have been living with that reality since April when we had to send my DH on an aircraft carrier with thousands of other people in a pandemic. None of my neighbors social distance, I live in a very closed community, and there is community spread happening. I don't know why the assumption would be that someone with my views would not have had to deal with this thing up close and personal.

And yet, I can be the one to be social distancing, doing everything right, and still end up catching this because I have unavoidable trips to the dentist. And where do I end up if I am resentful of everyone around me doing a "worse" job than I am and I still catch this? I can be grumpy in my heart, and fearful because my sibling works in a grocery store, and afraid because my dad straight up doesn't care. I can't demand everyone around me change their behavior. I can't control that. I can only do what I can do, and even that is limited. You and I probably live fairly similar lives during these times, to be honest, but my personal experiences and feelings are not what is informing how I love my neighbor, even if I perceive that they do not care one whit about me or mine. I cannot spend my time or my energy or my heart judging them because a) I think it will make me bitter and anxious and fearful, and b) I believe I'm commanded not to. Because as soon as I start judging them and I end up feeling superior for my almost pharisaical devotion to Covid Rules, I think the most humbling thing would be to get the virus because I can't avoid dental surgery. If they get sick, I want to be the one bringing them groceries and meds instead of spending all my time thinking about how dumb they are or how irritated I am with them. If I let myself be that way, I have miles of resentment I could build up.

But even with that, it has no bearing on my views of individual priorities and how I don't know what someone else needs or is going through economically, socially, emotionally, in their home or with their job. My anxiety in isolation doesn't trump theirs. "Because it's a pandemic," does not trump everything for everyone and I'm willing to respect that.

[EmseB]

13 minutes ago, Pam in CT said:

re "preventable" vs "reducible"

This gets back to binary categorization that impedes problem-solving and our ability actually to expand and maneuver within that dialed-back space we are going to have to live in one way or another, by decision or default.

We can't prevent ALL transmission or COMPLETELY eliminate COVID with the tools at hand. True.

Similarly, as at least two pp noted in this long thread, we can't COMPLETELY eliminate injury and death associated with driving. Also true.

However, with driving, we have both public policies (speed limits, drunk driving laws, mandatory seat belts, laws about texting while driving in some states, and etc) and individual behavior (stopping for breaks so we don't get overtired, planning so that distances aren't longer than we can safely handle and etc) to REDUCE the number of driving injuries and deaths.

Because FEWER driving deaths are better.  So we accept both public policy measures and adapt behavior to REDUCE those deaths even if we can't eliminate them all the way down to 0.

And similarly FEWER COVIC deaths are better even if we can't eliminate them all the way down to 0. That doesn't mean full lockdown for the full duration -- we're nowhere near that now. But it does mean mitigation measures like masking and distancing and smaller groups. And some -- not all, some -- people will make decisions on where to go and what businesses to frequent that based on whether such measures mitigate risk.

Better is better. Even if it falls far short of perfect.

That is all I have been saying this whole time (the bolded). Licensing drivers is done in such a way so that almost everyone can meet the requirements and make the rules with little issue. COVID restrictions are not that way for many people.

But also vis a vis the graphs and charts you posted above, I would say that a better way to show curves would not be EU vs US, or US vs other countries, but rather states or even major metro areas broken out individually. The US had a first wave in NY/CT/NJ and they seeded the rest of us, so that is when, especially Florida, started seeing more cases. Their curve is totally separate from NY.

And a good way to see if a state or metro area is, in fact, flattening the curve is to compare all major metro areas or states over time in the US since March. Did they slow the spread initially? Are their outbreaks and spikes smaller than other countries or areas that spiked sooner? Are they able to slow the spread if it starts rising? Can we contrast the sharp spike and decline with a slower rise and maybe prolonged plateau instead of a peak? Remember the slow the spread graph being published everywhere in March? Can we see that happening or is everyone spiking with no hope of control until enough people die to relieve the burden?

[ktgrok]

31 minutes ago, EmseB said:

 

But even with that, it has no bearing on my views of individual priorities and how I don't know what someone else needs or is going through economically, socially, emotionally, in their home or with their job. My anxiety in isolation doesn't trump theirs. "Because it's a pandemic," does not trump everything for everyone and I'm willing to respect that.

Well, you are doing a better job at that non judgemental thing than I am. Because yeah, if I get Covid, or my husband ends up sick or dead from it, or my mom, or one of my kids, because people in my community thought their party was more important than our lives, I'm going to be pretty darned angry. And as my priest once said, righteous anger is not a sin. 

And to be clear, I don't hate people for their choices. I'm frustrated, and in some cases angry. But I can love them and still be angry that their choices are putting people at risk in such a way. If they need to talk to someone, fine. But no one NEEDS a 4th of July party during a pandemic in one of the worst hot spots in the country. They just don't. 

[Ausmumof3]

46 minutes ago, EmseB said:

I think where I would differ from your ideas as stated above is to say we *can* prevent viral spread a ton of different ways. A lot of people choose not to or are not able to, the overall spread of viruses isn't something that can be stopped.

Washing hands or buying condoms is hardly asking millions of people to give up their livlihoods and is this easier to accomplish by far, and yet people still choose not to do those simple things. So that is why I said virus spread isn't prevetable, not that you literally couldn't, but human and viral behavior makes is practically impossible.

But the thing is the virus isn’t some kind of magic all powerful thing.  It follows scientific rules.  It can’t spread if we deprive it of hosts.

so we need to find the intersection of what we can manage economically and the scientific “rules” of the virus spread.  Because uncontrolled spread and death will make Job loss happen.  For example aged care in the long term.

also hopefully we can restructure our economy a little bit.  Maybe.

[frogger]

16 minutes ago, EmseB said:

That is all I have been saying this whole time (the bolded). Licensing drivers is done in such a way so that almost everyone can meet the requirements and make the rules with little issue. COVID restrictions are not that way for many people.

 

 

It isn't just that they don't know the rules. Most of them couldn't find actual health mandates if they tried. They are bombarded by garbage all day long. The news media that many consume isn't information, it's ranting and sadly most don't know how to analyze it. I don't think I'm perfect at it but I can easily discover if the governor said something and have the patience to go to the source.

[frogger]

1 hour ago, EmseB said:

That is all I have been saying this whole time (the bolded). Licensing drivers is done in such a way so that almost everyone can meet the requirements and make the rules with little issue. .

 

 

Yep, they are allowed to drive a multi ton vehicle at high velocities without really knowing the rules of the road or even paying attention to what they are doing so we certainly shouldn't expect that average Americans would be able to comprehend and formulate reasonable adjustments to life in regards to a pandemic which is new and confusing.

I'm not being snarky. It's just true. Getting a licence is way too easy and there isn't much expectation of drivers to try and become good drivers or to think about others on the road. They constantly endanger others and often kill others not encased in metal. 

 

 

 

[Pam in CT]

re "frustration" vs "judgment" -- and who is evoking it

10 hours ago, Ktgrok said:

Well, you are doing a better job at that non judgemental thing than I am. Because yeah, if I get Covid, or my husband ends up sick or dead from it, or my mom, or one of my kids, because people in my community thought their party was more important than our lives, I'm going to be pretty darned angry. And as my priest once said, righteous anger is not a sin. 

And to be clear, I don't hate people for their choices. I'm frustrated, and in some cases angry. But I can love them and still be angry that their choices are putting people at risk in such a way. If they need to talk to someone, fine. But no one NEEDS a 4th of July party during a pandemic in one of the worst hot spots in the country. They just don't. 

Yeah, "frustration" is a far better approximation to what I'm experiencing, four months into this and watching other parts of the country (who had warning, who had time to prepare, who had the ability to head it off) fall into the same nightmare that NY was in back in late March-early April, than "judgment."

Evidently every single municipality has to touch the hot stove PERSONALLY to believe it really will burn.  Well, OK, this is America.

 

Not that what's inside my head matters: it does not. But what I feel is frustration and sadness that our polarization is so ingrained and so powerful that we are, despite being a society that is interdependent and intertwined whether we like it or not, literally unable to understand this pandemic in terms other than blame casting across our accustomed divides. We literally can't perceive this virus as a SHARED problem, a COMMON enemy, even though patently, obviously, is.

The grooves of attributing blame are so deep that we literally cannot help ourselves.  And so the consequences to us as a society-- in cases, in deaths, in lost productivity, in unemployment, in hospital costs and bankruptcies, in supply chain disruptions, in personal financial costs and bankruptcies, in lingering health downstream effects -- will be orders of magnitude higher here, than in other nations who manage to mitigate the number of cases.  Not eliminate down to zero, but mitigate.

And it goes without saying that if an effective vaccine is found, it will be orders of magnitudes harder to deploy it at scale here, than elsewhere.

So if humanity makes it to the other side of this nightmare, the United States will be vastly weakened, in economic and productivity and national security terms, compared to the rest of the world... because of our inability to understand this problem for what it is.

A virus. Not an ideology. A common threat to all of us.

So: frustrated and sad.

 

Anger: that I reserve for our political leadership.  Whose job it is to lead, not just follow the winds of public opinion. Whose job it is to make hard choices about priorities... even if spending money on public schools so they are able to educate effectively in vastly more difficult circumstances, over (forex) bailing out cruise companies, involves a shift in ideological positions.  Whose job it is, in a national crisis, to model the "responsibilities" of civic society rather than emphasize only the "rights."  Whose job it is, above all, to accept their own responsibilities of public service.  In hard times, leadership truly is hard.  

This isn't "over" just because political leadership has grown tired of it.

 

Edited July 23, 2020 by Pam in CT
typo

[Granny_Weatherwax]

Here's an anecdote as to why it's so difficult to stop the spread. My DD has skin cancer and is high risk. She also recently had a baby and is three weeks postpartum with a newborn. A member of the in-law family does not believe in COVID and refuses to mask or change their life in any way. They do what they want. They recently attended a softball game and were socializing heavily. Three days after the game multiple players tested positive for COVID. Through contact tracing, the family members who attended were asked to quarantine for 5 days and monitor their health. Do you know what they chose to do instead? Visit my DD. Why? Because COVID isn't a thing. Luckily, my DD stood her ground and refused to see the family member (it's caused a rift at the moment and my DD is stressed by the strife). My DD never should have been put in this predicament. Who chooses to visit a newborn and her at risk mom when the Health Dept is asking you to quarantine?!?!?! Yes, you now have 5 days off of work but, come on, don't use those days to visit people. Stay home.

[BlsdMama]

21 hours ago, Ktgrok said:

Right, but we have to prioritize and make some sacrifices. We just do. Either that sacrifice is in human lives and medical costs, or it is in dollar costs and lost revenue. But there is no way to avoid pain here. 

I agree absolutely - It's going to be semi-open/open and spreading or closed and not, but for how long? If open with 10 people sick, then it will spread as soon as we open.  So closed? Forever? Because I don't see this thing dying out quietly.  Starving because you no longer have a business or an income is not a pleasant way to go either.

Truly.  Like we have money as a country because we produce things and sell things - widgets, raw goods, etc.  My husband works for a major aero company - it's seeing pain.  They have both government and commercial contracts.  The commercial contracts side of it is hurting. 

When we do not do (make/sell) those things, we do not sell those things.  How long can a farmer (someone who can successfully quarantine) if he cannot buy parts for his tractor this fall because his tractor supply store went under or because John Deere closes up shop and doesn't make parts?

I use this as an example because we are a major manufacturing state.  Obviously we have had problems in meat packing places with Covid - yet the animals must be butchered and distributed to the rest of the nation.  My dad is a farmer both of soy & corn and hogs.  He is glad his animals weren't ready for slaughter when they temporarily closed the meat packing plants.  And, without fail, every season his equipment needs servicing and new parts.  Farming is the most friendly quaranting job I can think of... until we recognize the dependency of the rest of the supply chain.  

Edited July 23, 2020 by BlsdMama

[BlsdMama]

23 minutes ago, The Accidental Coach said:

Here's an anecdote as to why it's so difficult to stop the spread. My DD has skin cancer and is high risk. She also recently had a baby and is three weeks postpartum with a newborn. A member of the in-law family does not believe in COVID and refuses to mask or change their life in any way. They do what they want. They recently attended a softball game and were socializing heavily. Three days after the game multiple players tested positive for COVID. Through contact tracing, the family members who attended were asked to quarantine for 5 days and monitor their health. Do you know what they chose to do instead? Visit my DD. Why? Because COVID isn't a thing. Luckily, my DD stood her ground and refused to see the family member (it's caused a rift at the moment and my DD is stressed by the strife). My DD never should have been put in this predicament. Who chooses to visit a newborn and her at risk mom when the Health Dept is asking you to quarantine?!?!?! Yes, you now have 5 days off of work but, come on, don't use those days to visit people. Stay home.

Good girl! My door would have been locked and I probably would have screamed unkind things asking if they were batsh*t crazy for attempting to expose a newborn and a newly delivered woman.

Now, I will say we HOSTED a FAMILY only get together last weekend.  Everyone is aware I'm not staying home all the time but I am being more cautious than most folks and I believe I'll get this inevitably so I accept that.  My aunt hugged me.  Of course, she didn't mention to ME, but did to my DH on her way out (she didn't stay long) that she's been sick and wonders if it is Covid.  Are you kidding me????  Like you're actively SICK and you came to a group function? Why? Why for ANY disease? If I'm sick I don't go to Christmas, Easter, or even the store? No one wants WHATEVER you're carrying.  SMH, yes, there are just THOSE people and if we realize that those people exist, then short of military keeping people closed, it will spread and continue to spread inevitably.

Edited July 23, 2020 by BlsdMama

[Ali in OR]

1 hour ago, Pam in CT said:

And so the consequences to us as a society-- in cases, in deaths, in lost productivity, in unemployment, in hospital costs and bankruptcies, in supply chain disruptions, in personal financial costs and bankruptcies, in lingering health downstream effects -- will be orders of magnitude higher here, than in other nations who manage to mitigate the number of cases.  Not eliminate down to zero, but mitigate. ...

 

Whose job it is to make hard choices about priorities... even if spending money on public schools so they are able to educate effectively in vastly more difficult circumstances, over (forex) bailing out cruise companies, involves a shift in ideological positions.  ...

This isn't "over" just because political leadership has grown tired of it.

 

 

1 hour ago, square_25 said:

We aren't handling this at the societal level, so then I have to handle it myself, which means being lonely. I'll take the trade, I guess, but it makes me sad. 

On consequences:
We have no personal encounter with this virus yet, thankfully, but we are still suffering through the non-health-related side effects. I can handle my losses okay (though I do have down days), but at the moment I am particularly burdened with the losses my kids are bearing. Since we did not keep the virus in check this summer, my high schooler may pretty much lose her whole senior year. We bemoaned the class of 2020 not getting proms and graduations, but it's beginning to look like the class of 2021 will lose that and much more--no sports, no social functions, no being at school for a whole year (this is not announced yet, it just feels like this is where its headed) on top of no prom or graduation. And academically, my kid who signed up for 6 AP classes may be limited to 4 because of how they'll arrange the schedule--4 classes per semester and APs have to be first semester to finish the class before the tests. So now it's affecting her education even more. My college kid has already lost 1 quarter on campus. As a junior, she's supposed to get two quarters on campus this year (winter/spring), but the university is already saying they may have to go online only for fall (freshman/sophomores supposed to be on campus) based on Covid numbers. Is it really going to be better for winter quarter? All predictions are that winter will be worse. So now we're thinking maybe she takes a leave of absence for the year. You don't go to this school and pay this tuition for 1/3 of your 4 years to be done online from home. You miss sooo much of what college should be.

I don't think this means you just go ahead with life no matter what the virus does. But I think we should have had leadership to hold the course, get the numbers down, and then reopen gently with a plan to prioritize things like education, not vacations and bar-hopping. My kids are paying a high price for that.

Edited July 23, 2020 by Ali in OR

[Matryoshka]

17 minutes ago, Ali in OR said:

 

On consequences:
We have no personal encounter with this virus yet, thankfully, but we are still suffering through the non-health-related side effects. I can handle my losses okay (though I do have down days), but at the moment I am particularly burdened with the losses my kids are bearing. Since we did not keep the virus in check this summer, my high schooler may pretty much lose her whole senior year. We bemoaned the class of 2020 not getting proms and graduations, but it's beginning to look like the class of 2021 will lose that and much more--no sports, no social functions, no being at school for a whole year (this is not announced yet, it just feels like this is where its headed) on top of no prom or graduation. And academically, my kid who signed up for 6 AP classes may be limited to 4 because of how they'll arrange the schedule--4 classes per semester and APs have to be first semester to finish the class before the tests. So now it's affecting her education even more. My college kid has already lost 1 quarter on campus. As a junior, she's supposed to get two quarters on campus this year (winter/spring), but the university is already saying they may have to go online only for fall (freshman/sophomores on campus) based on Covid numbers. Is it really going to be better for winter quarter? All predictions are that winter will be worse. So now we're thinking maybe she takes a leave of absence for the year. You don't go to this school and pay this tuition for 1/3 of your 4 years to be done online from home. You miss sooo much of what college should be.

I don't think this means you just go ahead with life no matter what the virus does. But I think we should have had leadership to hold the course, get the numbers down, and then reopen gently with a plan to prioritize things like education, not vacations and bar-hopping. My kids are paying a high price for that.

Yeah, but it is what it is.  For everyone.  We're all in this together.  My youngest dd will end up graduating only having had one semester of an on-campus college experience.  We suggested she could take a gap or break year, but she just wants to be done.  She and one of my other kids will be graduating this coming year; the other one graduated 2020.  Possibly no graduations for any of them. Everyone the whole world over is dealing with this virus.  No one's getting a 'normal' experience this year, or yeah, maybe the next.

Maybe I read far too much, but I've read soooo many stories - set in real times in human memory - where war, revolution, upheaval of various kinds have interrupted peoples' education and lives in ways much, much, much worse than this.  Entire swathes of generations were lost in WWI and WWII.  Over much of the 20th century, people were taken from their home en masse and imprisoned, killed and tortured, or just disappeared in countries in Europe, Asia, South America and more.  I'm honestly much more worried right now about the advent of secret police, because if you want to see disruption in your kids' lives, look back at those stories - and they all start the same way. America has been insulated for so long.  Staying home and not seeing friends or not having prom is honestly not phasing me.  I just want there to be a safe world to get back to when this is all over...  

Edited July 23, 2020 by Matryoshka

[Pam in CT]

17 minutes ago, Ali in OR said:

 

On consequences:
We have no personal encounter with this virus yet, thankfully, but we are still suffering through the non-health-related side effects. I can handle my losses okay (though I do have down days), but at the moment I am particularly burdened with the losses my kids are bearing. Since we did not keep the virus in check this summer, my high schooler may pretty much lose her whole senior year. We bemoaned the class of 2020 not getting proms and graduations, but it's beginning to look like the class of 2021 will lose that and much more--no sports, no social functions, no being at school for a whole year (this is not announced yet, it just feels like this is where its headed) on top of no prom or graduation. And academically, my kid who signed up for 6 AP classes may be limited to 4 because of how they'll arrange the schedule--4 classes per semester and APs have to be first semester to finish the class before the tests. So now it's affecting her education even more. My college kid has already lost 1 quarter on campus. As a junior, she's supposed to get two quarters on campus this year (winter/spring), but the university is already saying they may have to go online only for fall (freshman/sophomores on campus) based on Covid numbers. Is it really going to be better for winter quarter? All predictions are that winter will be worse. So now we're thinking maybe she takes a leave of absence for the year. You don't go to this school and pay this tuition for 1/3 of your 4 years to be done online from home. You miss sooo much of what college should be.

I don't think this means you just go ahead with life no matter what the virus does. But I think we should have had leadership to hold the course, get the numbers down, and then reopen gently with a plan to prioritize things like education, not vacations and bar-hopping. My kids are paying a high price for that.

I have a class of 2021 kid too.  Actually, two of them, one due to finish high school in 2021 and another to finish university.

There is hardship. There is loss. There is grief. There is resentment about the loss of all the fun parts of school, and real concern about the lesser quality of the educational and training they're getting in their last 18 months over what they assumed they'd get. There is horrific uncertainty and stress about what economy they'll be graduating into.

It all sucks. It really, really does.

And it's not over just because we're "done" with it.

 

(I keep thinking about other extended intervals where whole nations lived under sustained strain, and what THOSE stressors must have felt like to folks enduring them. The Depression, the WWs, influenza and plague.  This particular plague fell upon us right at Passover, which provided something of a frame for me to see our own turning upon both each other and our leadership, our lapses into false idols, and above all... forty years.  Just how long is forty years.  We were "done" with the virus before we got to forty days.  The virus, OTOH, she is not done with us.)

 

 

eta posting at the same time as @Matryoshka . What she said.

Edited July 23, 2020 by Pam in CT

[Pen]

10 minutes ago, Matryoshka said:

Yeah, but it is what it is.  For everyone.  We're all in this together.  My youngest dd will end up graduating only having had one semester of an on-campus college experience.  We suggested she could take a gap or break year, but she just wants to be done.  She and one of my other kids will be graduating this coming year; the other one graduated 2020.  Possibly no graduations for any of them. Everyone the whole world over is dealing with this virus.  No one's getting a 'normal' experience this year, or yeah, maybe the next.

Maybe I read far too much, but I've read soooo many stories - set in real times in human memory - where war, revolution, upheaval of various kinds have interrupted peoples' education and lives in ways much, much, much worse than this.  Entire swathes of generations were lost in WWI and WWII.  Over much of the 20th century, people were taken from their home en masse and imprisoned, killed and tortured, or just disappeared in countries in Europe, Asia, South America and more.  I'm honestly much more worried right now about the advent of secret police, because if you want to see disruption in your kids' lives, look back at those stories - and they all start the same way. America has been insulated for so long.  Staying home and not seeing friends or not having prom is honestly not phasing me.  I just want there to be a safe world to get back to when this is all over...  

 

7 minutes ago, Pam in CT said:

I have a class of 2021 kid too.  Actually, two of them, one due to finish high school in 2021 and another to finish university.

There is hardship. There is loss. There is grief. There is resentment about the loss of all the fun parts of school, and real concern about the lesser quality of the educational and training they're getting in their last 18 months over what they assumed they'd get. There is horrific uncertainty and stress about what economy they'll be graduating into.

It all sucks. It really, really does.

And it's not over just because we're "done" with it.

 

(I keep thinking about other extended intervals where whole nations lived under sustained strain, and what THOSE stressors must have felt like to folks enduring them. The Depression, the WWs, influenza and plague.  This particular plague fell upon us right at Passover, which provided something of a frame for me to see our own turning upon both each other and our leadership, our lapses into false idols, and above all... forty years.  Just how long is forty years.  We were "done" with the virus before we got to forty days.  The virus, OTOH, she is not done with us.)

 

 

eta posting at the same time as @Matryoshka . What she said.

 

Yes.  Both of the above — I agree.

 

And I want to add that people seem to act like this pandemic is separate from their lives.

I hear things along the lines that people were living their lives and then this happened and their lives stopped and now they are ready to get back to their lives.

However, this pandemic situation is a part of our lives, not something separate.  It may even turn out to be a very significant part of our lives much like the World Wars were a significant part of people’s lives who were affected by them.  

 

 

[MEmama]

2 minutes ago, Pen said:

 

 

Yes.  Both of the above — I agree.

 

And I want to add that people seem to act like this pandemic is separate from their lives.

I hear things along the lines that people were living their lives and then this happened and their lives stopped and now they are ready to get back to their lives.

However, this pandemic situation is a part of our lives, not something separate.  It may even turn out to be a very significant part of our lives much like the World Wars were a significant part of people’s lives who were affected by them.  

 

 

Really well said, Pen.
I think a lot of people here will struggle with the concept, but once they can accept it perhaps some clarity will kick in. 

[Pam in CT]

1 minute ago, square_25 said:

Actually, if you were evacuated, you were no longer in the same place as most of your friends. And your family had probably just been torn apart. And you may very well have wound up moving back to a different city. 

And if you were Jewish in much of Europe in World War II, well... I won't go there. 

You're thinking of this from a very American point of view. 

Sure, WWII on American soil was a cakewalk compared to anyone in Czech, or France, or Russia, or even London or even Dresden.

Let alone anyone Jewish anywhere; or anyone in the camps for any reason.

Nonetheless there was privation, even here, if only relative to their Beforetimes.

And also, at the same time: the isolation aspects of THIS particular privation are real and hard and damaging.

 

It's not a contest.  

To compare those hard times with these hard times isn't to suggest Snap Out Of It, a sentiment that is literally never helpful. It's to widen the lens of perspective and hopefully be able to glean lessons from what helped then, to alleviate the current suffering even if only a little even only at the margins.

[Pen]

7 minutes ago, Happymomof1 said:

Yes, but to me, what makes this different is the isolation.  In WWI or WWII, you cried with friends and families. You collected scrap metal. You jointly raised a victory garden.  Now, staying home by yourself is considered heroic...  That is a different type of suffering, but no less severe.  Everyone talks about the wars, but people shared the experience with other people. You cannot with this virus. Not saying one is worse than another, just different. 

 

Nothing stops jointly raising a victory garden with this.  I don’t think scrap metal is needed, but some people were making masks for essential workers in a similar vein to that. And other things are like collections for people in economic difficulties, bringing things to people who need to stay isolated and don’t have nearby family are really desperately needed.  

 

[Matryoshka]

1 minute ago, Happymomof1 said:

Yes, but to me, what makes this different is the isolation.  In WWI or WWII, you cried with friends and families. You collected scrap metal. You jointly raised a victory garden.  Now, staying home by yourself is considered heroic...  That is a different type of suffering, but no less severe.  Everyone talks about the wars, but people shared the experience with other people. You cannot with this virus. Not saying one is worse than another, just different. 

If you are 'disappeared', you are not typically with other people.  I guess in the gulags and the concentration camps, people had each other, so it was better than this?  

Are you really alone?  Or just with your family?  Anne Frank had just her family.  Scores of Jews who hid did not.  And they were the 'lucky' ones.  In WWII, children were separated from their families in droves, sent off to live with complete strangers who sometimes abused them, worked them like slaves, or didn't bother feeding them.  My own grandmother was sent off not once, but twice.  She was lucky the families treated her well.  My grandfather spent two weeks in the hospital after collapsing from malnutrition where he had to work.  He had to leave his family to work at age 12.  He would never eat turnips because they were all he had to eat for two years.

[Matryoshka]

3 minutes ago, square_25 said:

Yeah. We're still in our comfortable homes, talking to each other on Zoom. It's not great. It's depressing. But more destabilizing than what other generations went through? Doubtful.  

Not just doubtful.   And if we could just pull together and do the things that would reduce transmission and stop sticking our heads in the sand, this really would become more of a blip.  We know what to do, if we all just did it we could get to, at least, a new normal.

[Matryoshka]

3 minutes ago, square_25 said:

Oh, I'm really not trying to suggest it's a contest! Just that I don't think we're doing a good job of genuinely thinking of what other people's lives have been like. Because we often do view things from the lens of our own safe and undisrupted lives. 

I've heard a lot of stories about how my grandparents and their generation were evacuated. It was an indubitably traumatic event! They don't downplay it. It was formative. So it's not about the fact that it was WORSE... it's about the fact that living with disruption is the rule and not the exception. 

This.  We here in America, esp. in the latter half of the 20th century have lived through a charmed time.  

[Pen]

2 minutes ago, Matryoshka said:

If you are 'disappeared', you are not typically with other people.  I guess in the gulags and the concentration camps, people had each other, so it was better than this?  

Are you really alone?  Or just with your family?  Anne Frank had just her family.  Scores of Jews who hid did not.  And they were the 'lucky' ones.  In WWII, children were separated from their families in droves, sent off to live with complete strangers who sometimes abused them, worked them like slaves, or didn't bother feeding them.  My own grandmother was sent off not once, but twice.  She was lucky the families treated her well.  My grandfather spent two weeks in the hospital after collapsing from malnutrition where he had to work.  He had to leave his family to work at age 12.  He would never eat turnips because they were all he had to eat for two years.

 

Quoting to emphasize. 

 

[Pam in CT]

re how this chapter in our (personal and national) story will read, once the chapter is over

6 minutes ago, Pen said:

...And I want to add that people seem to act like this pandemic is separate from their lives.

I hear things along the lines that people were living their lives and then this happened and their lives stopped and now they are ready to get back to their lives.

However, this pandemic situation is a part of our lives, not something separate.  It may even turn out to be a very significant part of our lives much like the World Wars were a significant part of people’s lives who were affected by them.  

 

Another insight that I've carried since Passover is one made by a participant at one of the many ZOOM seders I "attended" -- the idea that we re-tell the story every year knowing how it ends... but the people inside the story had to live it FOR FORTY-PLUS YEARS without knowing the ending.  And that uncertainty and fear about How Long and What's the End Game is the fuel for a lot of the fury and blame-casting and stiff-neckedness, then and now.

Many people who experience extreme trauma of different sorts (rape, combat, loss of a child, concentration camps) describe thinking of their lives forever after as the part that came Before vs the part that came After.  

We have not yet arrived at the After, here.  But when we do, I expect that will be true for this as well. This experience is big and formative, for both individuals and for us as a society.  My nearly-adult kids recognized that before I did.

[Laura Corin]

27 minutes ago, square_25 said:

Actually, if you were evacuated, you were no longer in the same place as most of your friends. And your family had probably just been torn apart. And you may very well have wound up moving back to a different city.

Yes, my father was evacuated from England to Saskatchewan, to a family he had never met, where the mother burned his books and refused to let him attend school.  His only companion was his little brother, whom he felt he had to protect, and who soon forgot his parents and sided with the new family against his brother.  My father cried about this on his deathbed sixty years later.