wuhan - coronavirus

[Ausmumof3]

Hopefully this is still viewable for those not on Twitter 

[bookbard]

Sounds similar to what was happening here in winter, with RSV and flu on top of Covid. It's so dangerous. 

Such a tricky time of year - starting to get invited to things. I think I will just have to be blunt about the indoor activities and say I can't do them. At least with homeschooling a lot of the end of year stuff is reduced. 

[popmom]

On 10/29/2022 at 11:39 AM, KSera said:

If this is a topic you’re interested in, there has been a lot of commentary from virologists. Here are a couple that provide greater scientific (and linguistic) context:

 

(Dr Rasmussen is not one of my favorites to read, but she is qualified to speak on this.)

 

The origins/lab leak stuff doesn’t happen to be an element that has great interest to me, so I haven’t read through all of it, I just keep seeing discussion of it when I’m reading about the aspects of Covid science that are relevant to me. 

I’m capable of finding dissenting opinions. I actually look for them all on my own! Imagine! That’s not real hard on this matter lol.
 

It’s interesting to me that you and so many others who are so —idk—in the know, concerned, worried, on top of all the latest, etc, …that the origins of the virus WOULDN’T be of great interest to you. I speculate that it just makes people squirm and writhe in discomfort over implied political associations. No one who claims to think scientifically about these things will want to own up to that, but it’s become glaringly obvious in our current political climate—that this muddies the waters. That’s a dam* shame. I’m extremely interested in the origins of this pandemic because I (we) don’t want this to EVER happen again. I’ve never seen the Occam’s razor argument as distorted as it has been applied to this situation. It’s maddening.

Edited November 5, 2022 by popmom

[TCB]

5 hours ago, popmom said:

I’m capable of finding dissenting opinions. I actually look for them all on my own! Imagine! That’s not real hard on this matter lol.
 

It’s interesting to me that you and so many others who are so —idk—in the know, concerned, worried, on top of all the latest, etc, …that the origins of the virus WOULDN’T be of great interest to you. I speculate that it just makes people squirm and writhe in discomfort over implied political associations. No one who claims to think scientifically about these things will want to own up to that, but it’s become glaringly obvious in our current political climate—that this muddies the waters. That’s a dam* shame. I’m extremely interested in the origins of this pandemic because I (we) don’t want this to EVER happen again. I’ve never seen the Occam’s razor argument as distorted as it has been applied to this situation. It’s maddening.

I am concerned about Covid and am interested in the origins of the virus, but can’t summon up the gumption to keep up with the research on it, as there are so many other things to keep track of.
 

Something that I do find interesting is the seeming inconsistency of those who think the theory that it was engineered and deliberately released is true. If that is the case, I don’t understand how they can look at what China is doing to try and contain outbreaks and not be concerned. But all the people I know, who believe that to be true, do absolutely nothing to avoid contracting it. Extreme fatalism I guess, but it is so surprising to me.

[Happy2BaMom]

7 hours ago, popmom said:

I’m capable of finding dissenting opinions. I actually look for them all on my own! Imagine! That’s not real hard on this matter lol.
 

It’s interesting to me that you and so many others who are so —idk—in the know, concerned, worried, on top of all the latest, etc, …that the origins of the virus WOULDN’T be of great interest to you. I speculate that it just makes people squirm and writhe in discomfort over implied political associations. No one who claims to think scientifically about these things will want to own up to that, but it’s become glaringly obvious in our current political climate—that this muddies the waters. That’s a dam* shame. I’m extremely interested in the origins of this pandemic because I (we) don’t want this to EVER happen again. I’ve never seen the Occam’s razor argument as distorted as it has been applied to this situation. It’s maddening.

I am completely unclear as to how finding out the origins of the virus would somehow prevent it from EVER happening again. (ETA: this is not meant to imply that I don't care how it originated). Even if it could be proven to be 100% lab-produced, what exactly would you propose doing? 

 

Edited November 5, 2022 by Happy2BaMom

[SHP]

6 hours ago, popmom said:

I’m capable of finding dissenting opinions. I actually look for them all on my own! Imagine! That’s not real hard on this matter lol.
 

It’s interesting to me that you and so many others who are so —idk—in the know, concerned, worried, on top of all the latest, etc, …that the origins of the virus WOULDN’T be of great interest to you. I speculate that it just makes people squirm and writhe in discomfort over implied political associations. No one who claims to think scientifically about these things will want to own up to that, but it’s become glaringly obvious in our current political climate—that this muddies the waters. That’s a dam* shame. I’m extremely interested in the origins of this pandemic because I (we) don’t want this to EVER happen again. I’ve never seen the Occam’s razor argument as distorted as it has been applied to this situation. It’s maddening.

I care about the orgins and preventing another deadly pandemic. As this is not my area of expertise and there is literally nothing I can do to contribute to this line of enquiry I have decided to put my energy into staying informed about what is happening with the current pandemic so I can take steps to protect myself and anyone I come in contact with. 

I can take steps to prevent spreading that is how I can contribute.

[KSera]

6 hours ago, popmom said:

It’s interesting to me that you and so many others who are so —idk—in the know, concerned, worried, on top of all the latest, etc, …that the origins of the virus WOULDN’T be of great interest to you. I speculate that it just makes people squirm and writhe in discomfort over implied political associations. No one who claims to think scientifically about these things will want to own up to that, but it’s become glaringly obvious in our current political climate—that this muddies the waters. That’s a dam* shame. I’m extremely interested in the origins of this pandemic because I (we) don’t want this to EVER happen again. I’ve never seen the Occam’s razor argument as distorted as it has been applied to this situation. It’s maddening.

I‘m not saying no one should care or be investigating the origins—they should, and they are. But like @SHP, I don’t see any relevance in that to affecting what I do in my own life. I want to know about what’s happening with the virus now, how it spreads, what the effects are, how to prevent it for myself and my family. Origin theories aren’t personally applicable to staying safe and healthy, so it hasn’t been an area I’ve devoted much time to. I don’t know how you make that into something political, but people seem to want to make everything about this disease political, so 🤷‍♀️. If you’d like to tell me what political statement you think my focus on my family’s health makes, I’m genuinely curious. I guess you might need to take it to the politics board though. 

1 hour ago, TCB said:

 Something that I do find interesting is the seeming inconsistency of those who think the theory that it was engineered and deliberately released is true. If that is the case, I don’t understand how they can look at what China is doing to try and contain outbreaks and not be concerned. But all the people I know, who believe that to be true, do absolutely nothing to avoid contracting it. Extreme fatalism I guess, but it is so surprising to me.

I’ve found that super puzzling as well. For people who think this was engineered as a bio weapon by China, why aren’t they darn scared of it and wanting to “fight back” against the virus and not let China succeed in wiping out thousands of people every week? It strikes me as extremely inconsistent that those are the people most likely to think the virus is no big deal. The only explanation that makes sense is that they don’t *really * think China engineered it as a weapon, they just like to say they do. I have no idea. 

[wathe]

On 11/4/2022 at 4:01 AM, Ausmumof3 said:

Hopefully this is still viewable for those not on Twitter 

Yes.  Link directly to CBC article.  Combine high infections resp illness rates with what seems like increasing severity (cue covid induced immune suppression hypothesis) with paediatric over-the-counter med shortages (can't find liquid tylenol or advil anywhere), with some clinics and primary care practices still  refusing to see patients with infectious resp illness symptoms, with severe  emergency department staffing shortages (a full nursing complement in my ED is something like 15-18.  My last night shift we had 11.  We've had  nights with as few as 7) and you have a disaster. 

And paeds ICUs are full.  We are having to push kids 14+ into adult ICUs.  This is a huge deal.

And it's not just kids.  I saw 3 back to back respiratory resuscitations (infectious resp illness) on my last night shift, and 2 of those were younger, healthy adults, with flu and covid respectively.  Adult covid hospitalizations and emerge visit are climbing steeply - number of admitted covid pts in my hospital has more than doubled in the last month.  (And that doesn't count flu, RSV, other infectious resp illness admits)

ED departments are severely overcrowded and understaffed.  I had, at peak, 107 patients in my 40-ish bed, short-staffed dept last night.  This is now normal.  They are stacked in chairs and hallways. On any given day, at least 20-ish of those, and on very bad days, up to 35 or those,  will be admitted patients  - so at least half of my beds are blocked can't be used to move ED patients through.  

Conditions are impossible.  

My professional life is pretty horrid right now.

We know that schools and daycares are major drivers of spread of infectious resp illness.  We know that universal masking in indoor public spaces and schools works to decrease transmission.  But, nope.  Masking is unpopular.  So, this is fine, I guess.

 

 

[wathe]

And an amoxicillin shortage.  First-line for paediatric pneumonia, ear infections and strep.  Fantastic.

[kbutton]

2 hours ago, wathe said:

with some clinics and primary care practices still  refusing to see patients with infectious resp illness symptoms

I still don't understand this, especially when we've gotten so fatalistic about the virus. If we have to learn to live with it, you'd think a PCP could put on an N95 and designate one room for isolation or ask people to wait in the car until they are called back, etc. Dentists have been doing that the entire pandemic.

[Ausmumof3]

6 hours ago, Happy2BaMom said:

I am completely unclear as to how finding out the origins of the virus would somehow prevent it from EVER happening again. (ETA: this is not meant to imply that I don't care how it originated). Even if it could be proven to be 100% lab-produced, what exactly would you propose doing? 

 

Raina McIntyre is an epidemiologist here in Aus and she has some things to say about lab safety improvements and regulation that need to happen. There’s a podcast interview here she did recently. Basically what I gleaned from it is that over the last few years some technologies have become much cheaper and more accessible and the risk of things being done in backyard labs is higher. Just as people can set up a meth lab in their kitchen, they can do similar for various virology labs. She’s quite concerned about the lack of knowledge law enforcement has on the topic. 

https://www.mja.com.au/podcast/217/9/mja-podcasts-2022-episode-39-insiders-guide-pandemics-and-biosecurity-prof-raina

[wathe]

1 hour ago, kbutton said:

I still don't understand this, especially when we've gotten so fatalistic about the virus. If we have to learn to live with it, you'd think a PCP could put on an N95 and designate one room for isolation or ask people to wait in the car until they are called back, etc. Dentists have been doing that the entire pandemic.

To be fair, many PCP are seeing infectious illness patients in their offices and have been all along.

The problem, I think, is the public health requirement to have these patients separated in the waiting room, PPE requirements, cleaning requirements etc. I think it’s easy for many clinics and practises to just not have to deal with them. And demand is such that they can get away with it.

Dental practises are competing for patients here in a way that primary care providers simply aren’t.

 

 

 

[Happy2BaMom]

2 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Raina McIntyre is an epidemiologist here in Aus and she has some things to say about lab safety improvements and regulation that need to happen. There’s a podcast interview here she did recently. Basically what I gleaned from it is that over the last few years some technologies have become much cheaper and more accessible and the risk of things being done in backyard labs is higher. Just as people can set up a meth lab in their kitchen, they can do similar for various virology labs. She’s quite concerned about the lack of knowledge law enforcement has on the topic. 

https://www.mja.com.au/podcast/217/9/mja-podcasts-2022-episode-39-insiders-guide-pandemics-and-biosecurity-prof-raina

Hmmm. I feel like we're talking about different subjects. I still don't understand how finding out the origins of the virus would somehow prevent it from EVER happening again, which was the claim to which I was responding.

While I have empathy for Ms McIntrye's views (haven't listened to podcast, but just based on your summary), "safety improvements" and "regulation" both assume that a future someone (or foreign government) gives a f*ck about any of those things. I get that she wants LE to have more understanding about these topics (so they can ID labs in their own districts, I'm guessing?) but I think the issue of bioterrorism goes far beyond LE.

 

 

 

Edited November 5, 2022 by Happy2BaMom

[Happy2BaMom]

5 hours ago, wathe said:

Yes.  Link directly to CBC article.  Combine high infections resp illness rates with what seems like increasing severity (cue covid induced immune suppression hypothesis) with paediatric over-the-counter med shortages (can't find liquid tylenol or advil anywhere), with some clinics and primary care practices still  refusing to see patients with infectious resp illness symptoms, with severe  emergency department staffing shortages (a full nursing complement in my ED is something like 15-18.  My last night shift we had 11.  We've had  nights with as few as 7) and you have a disaster. 

And paeds ICUs are full.  We are having to push kids 14+ into adult ICUs.  This is a huge deal.

And it's not just kids.  I saw 3 back to back respiratory resuscitations (infectious resp illness) on my last night shift, and 2 of those were younger, healthy adults, with flu and covid respectively.  Adult covid hospitalizations and emerge visit are climbing steeply - number of admitted covid pts in my hospital has more than doubled in the last month.  (And that doesn't count flu, RSV, other infectious resp illness admits)

ED departments are severely overcrowded and understaffed.  I had, at peak, 107 patients in my 40-ish bed, short-staffed dept last night.  This is now normal.  They are stacked in chairs and hallways. On any given day, at least 20-ish of those, and on very bad days, up to 35 or those,  will be admitted patients  - so at least half of my beds are blocked can't be used to move ED patients through.  

Conditions are impossible.  

My professional life is pretty horrid right now.

We know that schools and daycares are major drivers of spread of infectious resp illness.  We know that universal masking in indoor public spaces and schools works to decrease transmission.  But, nope.  Masking is unpopular.  So, this is fine, I guess.

 

 

I am so sorry. Things like this are what push even more caregivers to leave health care.

I'm not sure if this will comfort or further depress you, but I hear similar stories (not about peds specifically, but general hospital's insanely poor staffing levels, complete patient overwhelm, and overall shitty care (due to both of the prior issues), from the HCWs in my family/friends circle, whom are all located in different states. It's.....BAD.

I've told my family, "drive different, live different, do anything you can to reduce your risk of serious injury or illness. The LAST place you want to have to be right now is in the hospital."

[SHP]

Ok

 

IF this was bioterrorism by a hostile state AND we know that masking and other mitigation methods work, then why aren't the people who are making the claim not doing those things instead of engaging in behaviors known to continue spread? Wouldn't the patriotic thing to do to be to at least continue to mask?!

[popmom]

13 hours ago, TCB said:

I am concerned about Covid and am interested in the origins of the virus, but can’t summon up the gumption to keep up with the research on it, as there are so many other things to keep track of.
 

Something that I do find interesting is the seeming inconsistency of those who think the theory that it was engineered and deliberately released is true. If that is the case, I don’t understand how they can look at what China is doing to try and contain outbreaks and not be concerned. But all the people I know, who believe that to be true, do absolutely nothing to avoid contracting it. Extreme fatalism I guess, but it is so surprising to me.

 

12 hours ago, Happy2BaMom said:

I am completely unclear as to how finding out the origins of the virus would somehow prevent it from EVER happening again. (ETA: this is not meant to imply that I don't care how it originated). Even if it could be proven to be 100% lab-produced, what exactly would you propose doing? 

 

 

11 hours ago, KSera said:

I‘m not saying no one should care or be investigating the origins—they should, and they are. But like @SHP, I don’t see any relevance in that to affecting what I do in my own life. I want to know about what’s happening with the virus now, how it spreads, what the effects are, how to prevent it for myself and my family. Origin theories aren’t personally applicable to staying safe and healthy, so it hasn’t been an area I’ve devoted much time to. I don’t know how you make that into something political, but people seem to want to make everything about this disease political, so 🤷‍♀️. If you’d like to tell me what political statement you think my focus on my family’s health makes, I’m genuinely curious. I guess you might need to take it to the politics board though. 

I’ve found that super puzzling as well. For people who think this was engineered as a bio weapon by China, why aren’t they darn scared of it and wanting to “fight back” against the virus and not let China succeed in wiping out thousands of people every week? It strikes me as extremely inconsistent that those are the people most likely to think the virus is no big deal. The only explanation that makes sense is that they don’t *really * think China engineered it as a weapon, they just like to say they do. I have no idea. 

The article I shared didn’t imply at all that this was an act of bio terrorism or “deliberately released”. They found evidence of a leak—an accident that was deemed emergent. 
 

I think the intentions behind the research were most likely good—not nefarious.
 

What would I propose doing if it’s found to be a lab leak origin? That’s not something I’m qualified to answer. More transparency from agencies funding research, more transparency from private labs here and overseas??? Just because it has no direct bearing on protecting myself or my family atm doesn’t mean I’m not going to pay close attention. I have to vote for people who can effect change. 
 

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/23/magazine/covid-lab-leak.html

 

Edited November 6, 2022 by popmom

[popmom]

2 hours ago, SHP said:

Ok

 

IF this was bioterrorism by a hostile state AND we know that masking and other mitigation methods work, then why aren't the people who are making the claim not doing those things instead of engaging in behaviors known to continue spread? Wouldn't the patriotic thing to do to be to at least continue to mask?!

Meh never mind. 🙂 🫠😂

Edited November 6, 2022 by popmom
It’s all good

[KSera]

5 minutes ago, popmom said:

Has anyone here made that claim? I’m confused. Or are y’all just assuming I’m a far right wing wacko? 🫠😂

I have no idea, but if you want to know honestly, it kind of hit me as coming from that direction because it was posted right in the midst of a number of very interesting and relevant medical discoveries having just been made about Covid and long-term sequelae and articles about what might cause long Covid and other things that were also shared here, and at the same time you posted this saying it was the most interesting thing you’ve read about Covid in a long time. So it instantly struck me as, I don’t know, notable, that you found the origins stuff more interesting than all the new and important medical discoveries. 🤷‍♀️ That’s usually something I see from Covid deniers or minimizers and/or people who think it’s all some political thing. Which you did suggest in one of your recent posts as well. Just sharing that as far as where my gut level interpretation was coming from, though my recollection is you swing back and forth. I usually gather it’s more that you like to argue 😂. (Then again, there’s another poster who I believe started posting around the same time you did and I find I get the two of you confused, though I often after the fact realize that she is a very great different kind of poster than you are. You tend to have more substance in your post to at least actually interact with.). 

[popmom]

10 minutes ago, KSera said:

I have no idea, but if you want to know honestly, it kind of hit me as coming from that direction because it was posted right in the midst of a number of very interesting and relevant medical discoveries having just been made about Covid and long-term sequelae and articles about what might cause long Covid and other things that were also shared here, and at the same time you posted this saying it was the most interesting thing you’ve read about Covid in a long time. So it instantly struck me as, I don’t know, notable, that you found the origins stuff more interesting than all the new and important medical discoveries. 🤷‍♀️ That’s usually something I see from Covid deniers or minimizers and/or people who think it’s all some political thing. Which you did suggest in one of your recent posts as well. Just sharing that as far as where my gut level interpretation was coming from, though my recollection is you swing back and forth. I usually gather it’s more that you like to argue 😂. (Then again, there’s another poster who I believe started posting around the same time you did and I find I get the two of you confused, though I often after the fact realize that she is a very great different kind of poster than you are. You tend to have more substance in your post to at least actually interact with.). 

I just don’t spend that much time on the boards. Especially can’t keep up with this thread. That’s all. Next time I’ll provide a warning… “changing the subject” lol

I don’t enjoy arguing, but I do enjoy being challenged and good discussion. And I do often play devils advocate. 
 

The greatest threat to my health atm is being an Auburn fan. 😉

Edited November 6, 2022 by popmom

[popmom]

I never suggested "this is all some political thing". I reread what I wrote to make sure, and I really don't think that's at all what I communicated. But I guess I can see how you might think that based on your recents posts (the Musk problem). 😉 I'm kidding, of course, but it seemed like that sort of leap for you to get that from my post. The fact is that this has been politicized for better or worse, and it definitely muddies the waters. The fact that I'm even addressing it just demonstrates how we view so much of pandemic related reporting through our respective political lenses.

Let me make it clear for future reference: I am not a denier or minimizer. I am not anti-vax. I do not subscribe to ANY conspiracy theories. None of this applies to me. Never has. 

Welp. My team lost. Party's over here.

Edited November 6, 2022 by popmom

[Ausmumof3]

3 hours ago, SHP said:

Ok

 

IF this was bioterrorism by a hostile state AND we know that masking and other mitigation methods work, then why aren't the people who are making the claim not doing those things instead of engaging in behaviors known to continue spread? Wouldn't the patriotic thing to do to be to at least continue to mask?!

I do agree with that but there’s a significant number of people who are team lab leak theory who also do all the mitigation they can. There are still a number of respected scientists that don’t believe the science is settled on this.

[Ausmumof3]

4 hours ago, Happy2BaMom said:

Hmmm. I feel like we're talking about different subjects. I still don't understand how finding out the origins of the virus would somehow prevent it from EVER happening again, which was the claim to which I was responding.

While I have empathy for Ms McIntrye's views (haven't listened to podcast, but just based on your summary), "safety improvements" and "regulation" both assume that a future someone (or foreign government) gives a f*ck about any of those things. I get that she wants LE to have more understanding about these topics (so they can ID labs in their own districts, I'm guessing?) but I think the issue of bioterrorism goes far beyond LE.

 

 

 

I wish there was a transcript of the podcast so I could snip a couple of quotes, but I think she’s concerned that origins research is being railroaded as part of a larger concerning picture of some virologists not wanting regulation or responsibility. Because government don’t necessarily even understand the ins and outs of it regulation is hard and what we do have is outdated. She has just put out a book so she has a book to sell, which may be a conflict of interest. But she’s also ex WHO and a member of OzSAGE, and a whole lot of other things.

[Ausmumof3]

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.11.03.22281783v1

 

preprint only but this study seems to indicate that Paxlovid reduces long covid risk

“In sum, our results show that in people with SARS-CoV-2 infection who had at least 1 risk factor for progression to severe COVID-19 illness, treatment with nirmatrelvir within 5 days of a positive SARS-CoV-2 test was associated with reduced risk of PASC regardless of vaccination status and history of prior infection. The totality of findings suggests that treatment with nirmatrelvir during the acute phase of COVID-19 reduces the risk of post-acute adverse health outcomes.”

[wathe]

11 hours ago, wathe said:

Yes.  Link directly to CBC article.  Combine high infections resp illness rates with what seems like increasing severity (cue covid induced immune suppression hypothesis) with paediatric over-the-counter med shortages (can't find liquid tylenol or advil anywhere), with some clinics and primary care practices still  refusing to see patients with infectious resp illness symptoms, with severe  emergency department staffing shortages (a full nursing complement in my ED is something like 15-18.  My last night shift we had 11.  We've had  nights with as few as 7) and you have a disaster. 

And paeds ICUs are full.  We are having to push kids 14+ into adult ICUs.  This is a huge deal.

And it's not just kids.  I saw 3 back to back respiratory resuscitations (infectious resp illness) on my last night shift, and 2 of those were younger, healthy adults, with flu and covid respectively.  Adult covid hospitalizations and emerge visit are climbing steeply - number of admitted covid pts in my hospital has more than doubled in the last month.  (And that doesn't count flu, RSV, other infectious resp illness admits)

ED departments are severely overcrowded and understaffed.  I had, at peak, 107 patients in my 40-ish bed, short-staffed dept last night.  This is now normal.  They are stacked in chairs and hallways. On any given day, at least 20-ish of those, and on very bad days, up to 35 or those,  will be admitted patients  - so at least half of my beds are blocked can't be used to move ED patients through.  

Conditions are impossible.  

My professional life is pretty horrid right now.

We know that schools and daycares are major drivers of spread of infectious resp illness.  We know that universal masking in indoor public spaces and schools works to decrease transmission.  But, nope.  Masking is unpopular.  So, this is fine, I guess.

 

 

Quoting myself:  135 patients in the ED at the beginning of my shift.  That's not number per day, that's the number in the dept all at the same time.  All at the same time.  That is >300% capacity.  And many of them children there with parents, or elderly there with essential care-givers.  The sheer number of people in the space is overwhelming.   A personal record for me.  And short staffed to boot.  

[Ausmumof3]

“Evidence shows that SARS-CoV-2 reinfection adds risk of all-cause mortality, hospitalization and adverse health outcomes during acute and post-acute SARS-CoV-2 reinfection, and that the risk and burden may increase in a graded manner according to the number of infections. The evidence that SARS-CoV-2 can cause immune dysregulation is increasing. Reducing the risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection and reinfection could reduce overall burden of death and disease in Ontario during the pandemic and longer-term.”

https://www.publichealthontario.ca/-/media/Documents/nCoV/voc/2022/07/evidence-brief-ba4-ba5-risk-assessment-jul-8.pdf
 

 

 

[Ausmumof3]

https://fortune.com/well/2022/11/04/us-united-states-in-flu-epidemic-federal-health-officials-say-cdc-hhs-rsv-covid-omicron-2022/
 

The U.S. has “crossed the epidemic threshold” when it comes to flu, federal health officials said Friday, as they outlined plans to deploy troops and FEMA personnel, and supplies like ventilators, if needed, in response to a nationwide surge of respiratory illnesses that also includes RSV and COVID.

 

U.S. flu hospitalizations are higher now than they’ve been at this point in every other flu season since 2010-2011, officials with the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said on a press call.

[Mrs Tiggywinkle Again]

7 hours ago, wathe said:

Quoting myself:  135 patients in the ED at the beginning of my shift.  That's not number per day, that's the number in the dept all at the same time.  All at the same time.  That is >300% capacity.  And many of them children there with parents, or elderly there with essential care-givers.  The sheer number of people in the space is overwhelming.   A personal record for me.  And short staffed to boot.  

42 bed ER.

30 holders. Cannot find a pediatric bed for anything, much less a PICU bed.  
I am terrified of my kids getting sick right now.

[Happy2BaMom]

10 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

I do agree with that but there’s a significant number of people who are team lab leak theory who also do all the mitigation they can. There are still a number of respected scientists that don’t believe the science is settled on this.

That’s not the case (about the people, not the scientists) in the States. 
 

FWIW, I support continuing to in investigate the origins. But the people here who most want to “find the truth” also are (IMO) completely unwilling to acknowledge that it very well might be a case of a virus jumping from one mammal species to another mammal species. I have followed an herbalist (Stephen Harris Buhner) who said YEARS ago that coronaviruses were the most likely ones to dangerously mutate. (His book, Herbal Antivirals, has utterly fascinating chapters on the intelligence - demonstrated by their ability to constantly & rapidly mutate. His protocols have been more hit & miss for me, tho.)

The whole “origins” topic just fits the bill of so much of what I observe happening now. Humankind wants to admit ZERO responsibility for f*cking up the earth. Therefore, (fill-in-the-blank) *must* be the fault of some other (ever-&-always-smart, even if evil) human(s). 
 

(and, in case it’s not clear, the above statements are not directed at any particular person, including you, AusMom.)

Edited November 6, 2022 by Happy2BaMom

[Happy2BaMom]

@wathe

Its happening in the US, too. Flu hospitalizations are at their highest level in  12 years, and it’s early November.  Feds just declared a flu pandemic and are preparing to deploy troops and ventilators if needed. (note: RSV and Covid are part of the issue as well). 

[wathe]

23 minutes ago, Happy2BaMom said:

@wathe

Its happening in the US, too. Flu hospitalizations are at their highest level in  12 years, and it’s early November.  Feds just declared a flu pandemic and are preparing to deploy troops and ventilators if needed. (note: RSV and Covid are part of the issue as well). 

Flu just crossed the line into epidemic status here too.  It's a mess.  I am dreading work today.

[wathe]

In other news, our schools are closed for at least the next week due to a labour protest/strike-but-not-a-strike.  Which is its own big hairy deal because of suspension of constitutional rights for workers based on sketchy grounds.

The silver lining of that is that at least school-driven transmission will be interrupted for at least a week.

[Happy2BaMom]

43 minutes ago, wathe said:

Flu just crossed the line into epidemic status here too.  It's a mess.  I am dreading work today.

Hugs. Many of the HCWs in my circle are having actual panic attacks or other signs of severe mental stress around (or even at) work, too. There are just Not. Enough. Resources. (mostly of workers & beds, but also supplies & even some medicines), and they have to shoulder on the very real consequences of all that every day. 

Edited November 6, 2022 by Happy2BaMom

[popmom]

I'm in the SE US. I am masking in public places again and have been for some time. 2 of my dds just got over a flu like illness. They both tested negative for COVID. One is interning in a health care setting. One is in college. My undergrad dd said that when she was well enough to go back to class...she said as she walks through campus "every 5th person is hacking in the exact same way." Whatever illness it is has spread like wildfire across campus. I am assuming it's flu. My sister had it last week, and she had the flu shot several weeks ago. Maybe the shot isn't a good match?? Maybe it's RSV. Dd has had multiple classes canceled and emails from professors telling them--don't come to class if you are sick! 

Latest news from our state's hospital association is that hospitals are "busy" but not overwhelmed. They are seeing about equal numbers of hospitalizations due to flu and COVID. 

eta: Children's here is hit hard with flu and RSV. They have called in extra staff, but they are adequately staffed atm. The ER, of course, is really hit hard. Long waits. 😞

Edited November 6, 2022 by popmom

[KSera]

On 11/5/2022 at 1:33 AM, popmom said:

I’m capable of finding dissenting opinions. I actually look for them all on my own! Imagine! That’s not real hard on this matter lol.
 

It’s interesting to me that you and so many others who are so —idk—in the know, concerned, worried, on top of all the latest, etc, …that the origins of the virus WOULDN’T be of great interest to you. I speculate that it just makes people squirm and writhe in discomfort over implied political associations. No one who claims to think scientifically about these things will want to own up to that, but it’s become glaringly obvious in our current political climate—that this muddies the waters. That’s a dam* shame. I’m extremely interested in the origins of this pandemic because I (we) don’t want this to EVER happen again. I’ve never seen the Occam’s razor argument as distorted as it has been applied to this situation. It’s maddening.

I know you’re capable of finding dissenting opinions, as you state above, but for other’s interested I think this thread does a good job covering some of the glaring translation errors that the writers made that completely change the meaning of the documents they depended on. 

 

[popmom]

41 minutes ago, KSera said:

I know you’re capable of finding dissenting opinions, as you state above, but for other’s interested I think this thread does a good job covering some of the glaring translation errors that the writers made that completely change the meaning of the documents they depended on. 

 

Good point—thanks for sharing.

[Corraleno]

On 11/5/2022 at 1:33 AM, popmom said:

I’m capable of finding dissenting opinions. I actually look for them all on my own! Imagine! That’s not real hard on this matter lol.
 

It’s interesting to me that you and so many others who are so —idk—in the know, concerned, worried, on top of all the latest, etc, …that the origins of the virus WOULDN’T be of great interest to you. I speculate that it just makes people squirm and writhe in discomfort over implied political associations. No one who claims to think scientifically about these things will want to own up to that, but it’s become glaringly obvious in our current political climate—that this muddies the waters. That’s a dam* shame. I’m extremely interested in the origins of this pandemic because I (we) don’t want this to EVER happen again. I’ve never seen the Occam’s razor argument as distorted as it has been applied to this situation. It’s maddening.

I read the ProPublica article, as well as the comprehensive Science article that came out in July, out of intellectual curiosity, not because I thought that my personal understanding of the issue would have any impact on whether this "ever happens again." I mean, another pandemic like this one certainly will happen again, and regardless of how this one started, the next one could just as easily originate in animals or accidentally escape from a lab or even be purposely released as a bioweapon. To me, the most important questions are (1) what are we going to do about the one we're in now and (2) how can we be better prepared for the next one, regardless of where it comes from.

In case you're interested, here is my take on the two origin theories, from the article you linked and the Science article:

The Senate Committee's conclusion that covid “more likely than not” originated in the Wuhan lab is based on two lines of reasoning: (1) interpretation of Chinese documents, which Toy Reid admits involves “reading between the lines” and making inferences based on what's referred to as “the secret language of Chinese officialdom,” and (2) statistical analysis of the likelihood that certain mutations occurred naturally versus artificially.

The first component of the argument, Reid’s personal interpretation of the Chinese documents, has been criticized by other experts in the field as involving mistranslation, misinterpretation, and distortion of what the documents actually say. I haven’t seen direct criticism of the statistical modeling, but it’s important to note that the report simply states that certain attributes of the virus are rare (but not unknown) in nature and are more common in lab-manipulated viruses. However, they also cite a specific mutation as never occurring in nature when that claim (previously characterized in the media as a “smoking gun”) has been debunked by virologists who not only pointed to natural occurences, but also noted that there is even an intermediate form.

Another argument made in support of a lab origin is the claim that about half of the original 41 cases did not have direct links to the Hunan wet market — meaning the people did not work at or visit the market and did not have known close contact with someone who did. However, the authors of the recent Science article note that even the cases that did not have direct contact with someone from the market still clustered geographically around the market, they were not randomly distributed around Wuhan, or even clustered in another area, as would be expected if the outbreak started elsewhere and spread to the market. Nearly all of the early cases had either an economic or geographic relationship to the wet market.

Furthermore, there are human and enviromental viral samples tying the early cases to a specific area of the market that sold live animals, and those samples included both of the earliest lineages of SARS-Cov-2 (A & B) and included samples found on animal cages, animal processing equipment, and a meat freezer. Scientists who believe a market origin is most likely point out that in order for the virus to have escaped from the lab and started elsewhere in the city, someone infected from the lab would have had to either bring BOTH the A & B versions of the virus to the market AND infect the wild animals being sold there, or they would have had to bring one of those versions there, and then the virus mutated in animals and humans into two different lineages in a very short period of time.

Since it’s impossible to get direct samples from animals or meat sold in the Hunan market three years ago, there will never be a way to definitely prove that covid originated in the market. And unless someone from WIV or the Chinese government comes forward to admit that it escaped from the lab (which seems about as likely as finding a 3 yr old raccoon dog steak in someone’s freezer), then we’ll never know if it came from the lab. What we have are genetic analyses and statistical arguments for both theories.

Things we do know: (1) pandemics are often caused by viruses that jump from animals to humans (including SARS and MERS), (2) whether covid originated in a lab or in animals, the Chinese government’s lack of transparency and attempts to cover up what was happening had grave world-wide consequences, and (3) we have little to no control over either of those things. We can’t prevent zoonotic viruses from starting future pandemics and we can’t prevent the Chinese/Russians/North Koreans from developing bioweapons, doing gain-of-function experiments on viruses, or covering up when things go wrong. The things that are within our power include doing as much as we can to mitigate the spread and damage of the current pandemic virus, and voting for people who will commit to ensuring the US is much better prepared for the next pandemic, wherever it comes from.

 

Edited November 7, 2022 by Corraleno

[Ausmumof3]

I’m reading Raina McIntyre’s book Dark Winter and it is pretty fascinating. I don’t know if I’m fully convinced but I definitely think the lab leak theory is a lot more plausible than previously. I’d love to share some quotes but not sure how much I can share without breach of copyright.

[Ausmumof3]

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-11-08/sydney-school-tangara-closes-due-to-staff-covid-spread/101627900
 

Removing iso requirements haven’t fixed staffing problems 

[bookbard]

4 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Removing iso requirements haven’t fixed staffing problems 

No - interesting reading the article that NSW Health advised the school, a private school, to close. I wonder if they'd had a super-spreader event? It's the time of year for lots of events. 

My poor sister in law has been sick with one thing or another since getting covid a few months back - she almost lost sight in one eye from an infection which flared up, and now she's got viral symptoms again. It is just so hard on people. 

[bookbard]

So apparently the data has come out, and Australian life expectancy rose . . . before 2022. In other words, the lockdowns and the border rules and the precautions increased average Australian life expectancy from 6th in the world, to 3rd. 

But then Covid was let run wild from Dec 2021 and 2022. We will definitely see a drop, although it won't appear in figures for another year or so. It still makes me so furious. There were just so many benefits to having a covid free society, on an individual level and as a country. I still believe we could have slowly opened borders and reduced lockdowns by increasing ventilation, masks, and testing. 

Anyway. In good news for the rest of the world, China won't be dropping its restrictions and will be trying to increase vaccination rates in the elderly. It's hard on the people in China, but it would have a devastating effect on the rest of the world if staffing and supply collapsed there, too. 

[Ausmumof3]

35 minutes ago, bookbard said:

So apparently the data has come out, and Australian life expectancy rose . . . before 2022. In other words, the lockdowns and the border rules and the precautions increased average Australian life expectancy from 6th in the world, to 3rd. 

But then Covid was let run wild from Dec 2021 and 2022. We will definitely see a drop, although it won't appear in figures for another year or so. It still makes me so furious. There were just so many benefits to having a covid free society, on an individual level and as a country. I still believe we could have slowly opened borders and reduced lockdowns by increasing ventilation, masks, and testing. 

Anyway. In good news for the rest of the world, China won't be dropping its restrictions and will be trying to increase vaccination rates in the elderly. It's hard on the people in China, but it would have a devastating effect on the rest of the world if staffing and supply collapsed there, too. 

I have mixed feelings about China - some of the stories about Foxconn etc are kind of horrific. On the other hand uncontrolled covid there would probably be horrific as well.

[Arcadia]

My county.

[bookbard]

10 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

I have mixed feelings about China - some of the stories about Foxconn etc are kind of horrific. On the other hand uncontrolled covid there would probably be horrific as well.

oh, I agree. Some of the stories are awful. 

[Mom_to3]

9 hours ago, bookbard said:

oh, I agree. Some of the stories are awful. 

Agreed - but I wish there were similarly honest and frequent reporting about conditions in the US. We largely don't get to really see the horrors of waits in ERs, the effects of suboptimal care, the concerns of parents with fragile kids that fear for their lives and worry about access to schooling and medical care etc etc. A lot of pediatricians and ER docs tweeting about impossible and frightening conditions - but you have to look for it (and of course largely even then we still don't see it). 

[wathe]

21 minutes ago, Mom_to3 said:

Agreed - but I wish there were similarly honest and frequent reporting about conditions in the US. We largely don't get to really see the horrors of waits in ERs, the effects of suboptimal care, the concerns of parents with fragile kids that fear for their lives and worry about access to schooling and medical care etc etc. A lot of pediatricians and ER docs tweeting about impossible and frightening conditions - but you have to look for it (and of course largely even then we still don't see it). 

This is London, Ontario, today.  Emergency department wait times of 20+ hours for low-acuity complaints.  They will never state that actually emergencies also wait, but of course they do. And that it can be very hard to pick the sick needles out of the giant lower-acuity haystack when waiting rooms are packed and flowing out onto the sidewalk.

 

[Jean in Newcastle]

13 minutes ago, wathe said:

This is London, Ontario, today.  Emergency department wait times of 20+ hours for low-acuity complaints.  They will never state that actually emergencies also wait, but of course they do. And that it can be very hard to pick the sick needles out of the giant lower-acuity haystack when waiting rooms are packed and flowing out onto the sidewalk.

 

It didn't occur to me until you posted this that I could google the ER wait times at our local hospitals.  Shortest average wait time here is 1 hour 56 minutes.  Longest two are 4 hours 19 minutes and 5 hours 9 minutes respectively.  Both the long waits are at our regional trauma centers.  All the "normal" ERs are around 2 hours for an average wait. 

I am trying to remember how long it used to take me at my biannual ER visits - usually around an hour, I think.  Of course, it probably depends greatly on your need - I never used the ER for common complaints like flu etc. like some people do. 

But we have a high Covid vaccination in this county and while I've heard reports of overwhelm at our regional children's hospital, they don't publish their ER wait times. 

[wathe]

48 minutes ago, Jean in Newcastle said:

It didn't occur to me until you posted this that I could google the ER wait times at our local hospitals.  Shortest average wait time here is 1 hour 56 minutes.  Longest two are 4 hours 19 minutes and 5 hours 9 minutes respectively.  Both the long waits are at our regional trauma centers.  All the "normal" ERs are around 2 hours for an average wait. 

I am trying to remember how long it used to take me at my biannual ER visits - usually around an hour, I think.  Of course, it probably depends greatly on your need - I never used the ER for common complaints like flu etc. like some people do. 

But we have a high Covid vaccination in this county and while I've heard reports of overwhelm at our regional children's hospital, they don't publish their ER wait times. 

You can.  They aren't all accurate though - they are only as good as the algorithm.   They tend to display an unwarranted level of precision.

My hospital's ED wait time tracker caps at 5+ hours.  So no matter how much longer the wait time is, it will only ever display a maximum of "5+ hours".  It also simply displays the wait time of the current longest waiting patient.  So if, for example (highly improbable, but just to illustrate the point), 50 people register all at once into an empty department, it will display a wait time of 0 minutes (because none of them have waited, yet), even though of course we can't see fifty people at the same time, and all of them except the first will wait longer than 0 minutes  (many of them much longer).  It's not very sophisticated.

ETA: where I was going with this is to say that some ED wait time trackers are tuned to make wait-times look shorter than they actually are (or clearly will be).

Edited November 9, 2022 by wathe

[prairiewindmomma]

There's a new (or at least I don't remember it) caveat on the flu watch website this year in the US.  It states that the information is based on outpatient visits where the patient had a fever and either cough or sore throat: https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/usmap.htm What I find fascinating about this is that it would capture my visit last month (fever + sore throat or cough) for covid but it wouldn't capture my daughters' illnesses currently because they don't have a fever but do have something respiratory but not covid. I wonder how clear the data really is out there right now in the US.

We're currently at about every 5th person I see having a hacking cough here but we're listed as being at minimal activity level. I think that's because most people aren't having outpatient visits.  The flu aisle at the stores is pretty wiped out, though, and the lines at the pharmacy are about 15 customers deep. I'm putting myself back into lockdown at home mode except for essential medical care.

[Corraleno]

ER wait times in the metro area here are 2-3 hours. The website that lists the stats includes comments from the public, and it's disheartening to see people complaining about waiting many hours to be seen in the ER for minor issues like vomiting or a high fever. One person said they left after waiting 3 hours to be seen for a UTI, and recommended that people "sue the hospital for lack of care"! I feel so badly for healthcare workers who are so overworked due to staffing issues, and then have to deal with angry idiots on top of all the other stress.

I also checked the hospitalization data for the tri-county metro area, and we currently have 27 people hospitalized for covid and 8 hospitalized for flu, in an area of roughly 2.5 million people. We have pretty high vax rates here, though, and mask mandates are still in place (and strictly enforced) in all healthcare settings. I think we may have a high flu vax rate this year as well, because it's been almost impossible to get a flu shot appointment here! It was a little easier for me to find an over-65 shot, but finding a regular flu shot for DD was crazy — I was checking all the pharmacies and was only finding appointments that were either 30 miles away or were sometime in December. Some of the RiteAid locations near me didn't have openings until January! I finally lucked out and was able to get her a cancellation slot at the doctor's office.

[Ausmumof3]

I have been watching our ER data for a while as well. It seems to fill up and go way over capacity most nights from 5 to 10ish then slowly shrink down. Average times are worst in the mornings I presume because the people that are leaving then are the ones who were least urgent when things were full. Most times early morning they are between four and six hours sometimes 7 to 8. Funnily enough the media love reporting on the hospital crisis but they just don’t mention the C word. They blame it on underinvestment and a million other things that are most likely factors but never covid. Most people think covid hospitalisations are low because only hospitalisations for active covid are reported and they only count them for five days. If they are in for a longer period they no longer count as a covid hospitalisation.

Edited November 9, 2022 by Ausmumof3