Why Don't People Evacuate?

[ktgrok]

I read that since Andrew, there are now more than 2 million people living in Florida who weren't there then. It's been awhile... some people don't know. Not disagreeing with you, just... perspective.

 

 

 

Seems it is mostly natives that get cocky though, and want to stay. My parents have lived here forever, my dad's childhood house was smashed by a tree during Andrew, and he drove there the next day and said it was like a bomb went off. He could only navigate because he lived there his whole life, but otherwise most landmarks were gone. He knows better. Others are know lived here their whole lives too. 

[heartlikealion]

Seems it is mostly natives that get cocky though, and want to stay. My parents have lived here forever, my dad's childhood house was smashed by a tree during Andrew, and he drove there the next day and said it was like a bomb went off. He could only navigate because he lived there his whole life, but otherwise most landmarks were gone. He knows better. Others are know lived here their whole lives too. 

 

I've seen that, too lol. My family isn't native to the hurricane area, but I have spent most of my life here.

[ktgrok]

Talked to my parents, their house on the island is fine, they are headed home. The storm ended up hitting up the coast further, St. Augustine took the worst of it. So of course, they are all annoyed that they left, because it would have been fine to stay home. 
 

I can't even begin to say how hard I had to bit my tongue. If you play russian roulette, chances are, you'll be fine. Odds are in your favor. Still dumb to do. 

 

And when they evacuated, the forecast was for them to take a direct hit with a cat 4 storm. That it downgraded to a 3 and stayed off shore couldn't have been known at that time. 

[Pawz4me]

Sorry but this sounds really ridiculous to my ears. I have stayed home during mild hurricanes and evacuated for more severe ones. No one I know talks like this. No one is outside catching rain in buckets (or lining their property with buckets to retrieve later) during a storm to use for the next few days when the power is out. At least I haven't seen it. You could have a house full of people and maybe two toilets. The flushing isn't going to be convenient for any length of time. And water you stocked up on is being used to drink, cook, wash hands or something.

 

 

I grew up with well water. During winter ice storms it wasn't unusual for us to be w/o power for several days or even a week. Flushing a toilet (or toilets) is about the easiest problem to solve. Truly. I'm not denying there would be major issues to deal with in the aftermath of a hurricane. But assuming one uses just a modicum of common sense in preparing, flushing the toilet isn't one of them.

Edited October 7, 2016 by Pawz4me

[umsami]

To flush a toilet, you fill your bathtubs with water pre-hurricane.  People use that water or pool water to put a bucket of water in the tank and flush easy-peasy.

 

Hospitals evacuate patients as well from dangerous areas. Our beaches hospitals evacuated all patients and staff on Wednesday to other hospitals in-land.   For other areas, staff stays put at the hospital, because it's not safe to drive back and forth. (Family of physicians here in Florida.)

 

Really, not a lot of excuses.  There are curfews in place as well to keep people off of the roads which puts the "work" thing to rest.  The only people I know working are First Responders, and even their safety and their family's safety  is a priority.

 

 

[Jenny in Florida]

I suspect for most people it's a combination of things.

 

The logistics can seem overwhelming, especially if you don't have a lot of cash or credit available. In our earlier years in Florida when we were living on a shoestring, I used to dread the idea that we would face a mandatory evacuation, because if such a thing happened to to hit on a day of the week or the month too far from payday, we would not have been able to afford even the cheapest of motel rooms for one night, let alone a nicer place or a longer stay. And there was no guarantee the place we might possibly have been able to afford would allow us to bring our pets.

 

(And, yes, there are some shelters now that are pet friendly, but that was less true 10-15 years ago.)

 

For several of those years, we also drove a vehicle that wasn't in the best of condition. In advance of one storm, we opted to try and get out of town. We packed up the kids and the cats, emptied the bank account and hit the road . . . and ran into awful traffic. In several hours on the road, we made it fewer than 100 miles from home, at which point out van broke down and had to be towed. We used the money we had scraped together, borrowed some more and ended up hanging out for several hours with two kids and two cats at a mostly-closed strip mall while the repairs were done. Then we went back home to wait out the storm not only more broke than we were but now in debt.

 

Add to that the near-hysterical tone of reportage before and during these events and the essential unpredictability of storms -- which often (usually) means that the reality almost never turns out to be nearly as bad as suggested -- and it's really easy to get jaded and decide that it's not worth the hassle to leave.

 

 

Edited October 7, 2016 by Jenny in Florida

[elegantlion]

I just want to say leaving isn't just about transportation and gas. It's about potentially sitting for hours in back to back traffic and not always knowing where you are going to stop.

 

 

This is part of it. We had two hurricanes within two weeks of each other when we lived in the south. We have mandatory evacs for the first one and voluntary evacuations for the second. We were too broke to leave for the second, and just exhausted from evacuating from the first. Thankfully, we had before traffic got too bad, but we had to drive 5 hours to find a hotel with space. Where we lived, we were inland enough that it was iffy if we needed to leave at all. 

 

I grew up in the midwest where I'm used to tornado issues. Hurricane issues seem more complex and you have more time to contemplate, more time to watch a hurricane doing the hokey-pokey about where it's going to land, even moving 30 minutes one direction can make a difference. 

[Reefgazer]

We fill both bathtubs and all but one sink to the brim, and use that water for flushing and washing face and hands.  The bottled stuff is for drinking.  And we have buckets around the house in a storm, as well; not for use during the storm, but for after when the power goes out and no water is on shelves in the store. 

Sorry but this sounds really ridiculous to my ears. I have stayed home during mild hurricanes and evacuated for more severe ones. No one I know talks like this. No one is outside catching rain in buckets (or lining their property with buckets to retrieve later) during a storm to use for the next few days when the power is out. At least I haven't seen it. You could have a house full of people and maybe two toilets. The flushing isn't going to be convenient for any length of time. And water you stocked up on is being used to drink, cook, wash hands or something.

 

Losing power is a big deal. I don't care how many people say they are cool with it, they have a grill to cook with, etc. What about when your grill is destroyed in the storm? What about when it's hotter than hades and you can't bear the thought of heating up food? Sure, you do what you gotta do, but I just don't think people get it.
 

 

Edited October 7, 2016 by reefgazer

[heartlikealion]

I grew up with well water. During winter ice storms it wasn't unusual for us to be w/o power for several days or even a week. Flushing a toilet (or toilets) is about the easiest problem to solve. Truly. I'm not denying there would be major issues to deal with in the aftermath of a hurricane. But assuming one uses just a modicum of common sense in preparing, flushing the toilet isn't one of them.

 

So without the well, what would you do? Use the bathtub I guess? I'm thinking of cases where going to the store for more or setting out buckets is not an option (they will get flipped over in the storm).

 

To flush a toilet, you fill your bathtubs with water pre-hurricane.  People use that water or pool water to put a bucket of water in the tank and flush easy-peasy.

 

Hospitals evacuate patients as well from dangerous areas. Our beaches hospitals evacuated all patients and staff on Wednesday to other hospitals in-land.   For other areas, staff stays put at the hospital, because it's not safe to drive back and forth. (Family of physicians here in Florida.)

 

Really, not a lot of excuses.  There are curfews in place as well to keep people off of the roads which puts the "work" thing to rest.  The only people I know working are First Responders, and even their safety and their family's safety  is a priority.

 

After I posted it occurred to me that you could use the bathtub, but that's assuming you plan ahead and don't need to use that water for something else or run out of it. And that you don't have just a shower stall. And don't use the bathtub to ride out a tornado. I don't sit in ours but in one home we lived in it was considered the safest place in the house. But I would say most people do have a bathtub and could attempt to stock pile water there. Just don't know how many days it will last. I mean, if it's really bad, you're could be talking weeks not days. After seeing the damage in our town from Katrina we stayed with some friends in TX for a week and then I took a plane out of state. I knew people that didn't have as much damage, but were still dealing with power issues for some time. The power company may not be able to even get to certain areas. Of course these were the most extreme circumstances, not the average hurricane I've seen.

 

umsami, the work thing could be when work starts back up again. Your job might open but you're having trouble getting to the job because you left town. My parents both had jobs to return to, but so much of the area was a mess.

[SparklyUnicorn]

Sorry but this sounds really ridiculous to my ears. I have stayed home during mild hurricanes and evacuated for more severe ones. No one I know talks like this. No one is outside catching rain in buckets (or lining their property with buckets to retrieve later) during a storm to use for the next few days when the power is out. At least I haven't seen it. You could have a house full of people and maybe two toilets. The flushing isn't going to be convenient for any length of time. And water you stocked up on is being used to drink, cook, wash hands or something.

 

Losing power is a big deal. I don't care how many people say they are cool with it, they have a grill to cook with, etc. What about when your grill is destroyed in the storm? What about when it's hotter than hades and you can't bear the thought of heating up food? Sure, you do what you gotta do, but I just don't think people get it.

 

 

I can live without electricity for pretty much anything EXCEPT heating.  We once had a bad ice storm that knocked the power out for over a week.  And I live in an area that is densely populated so we are usually the first to get emergency crews working on it.  After a couple of days of freezing I was beside myself.  It was so terrible!  We broke down and went to a shelter.  One night I went to bed with my winter jacket on, boots, etc. and it was still painfully cold.  I know people live in conditions like that, but when you aren't equipped for it and can't burn stuff for warmth, then forget it. 

 

Our water/toilet stuff is not dependent upon electricity except for hot water.  I can also cook when the power is out because I have a gas range. 

[ktgrok]

My cousin on Merritt Island as well and she's fine.  She posted a video on FB and they have some large puddles and palm fronds and that's it.  She said if she was sleeping she'd think it was just another bad storm.  Her house is older and brick and has seen many hurricanes so she wasn't worried.  She lost power but they have a generator and a gas stove.

 

Well, and the storm unexpectedly slowed, and took a turn further to the east so it skirted the area rather than making a direct hit. Brick or not, her roof is wood and could have come off had the storm moved the other way, or stayed what was predicted. She's lucky. That's all. 

 

Take a look at the photos coming out of St. Augustine and Jacksonville Beach, which ended up getting hit instaed of Merritt Island and Cocoa, which was predicted, to see what could have been. 

 

Had this stayed as strong as predicted, rather than weakening suddenly and moving to the east, it would have been the most powerful storm to hit that part of Florida pretty much ever. Riding out Cat 2 Charley doesn't = riding out a Cat 4 storm. I wish people understood that. 

Edited October 7, 2016 by ktgrok

[linders]

Transportation and hotel costs do not need to be prohibitive. We are inland SC. They sent our school buses to bring people who couldn't drive (or afford to), they have our schools set up as evac centers, food is rolling in. Not fun, but better than losing your life.

[forty-two]

Evacuating isn't a risk-free proposition, though.  Not just in terms of jobs and money and property, but also to your life.  I was reading about Hurricane Rita last night - my parents live south of Houston and I remember how it was right after Katrina and everyone was evacuating to be on the safe side (my parents left - first hurricane they left for (they are on the edge of the cat 3 evacuation zone, and had stayed for a cat 3 in the past; Dad's done his research about their house's elevation and how big of a storm surge it would take to reach them)).  And all the hysteria about "cat 5 = death" that caused tons of people who were well out of the evacuation zones, even for a cat 5, to "leave to be on the safe side".  And of the 120-odd deaths in the U.S. from the storm, over *100* of them were from the evacuation itself.  Seven directly from hyperthermia, and the rest from hyperthermia aggravating underlying conditions.  (And there was the bus fire that a pp mentioned.)  And a lot of the gridlock was from people who were *not* in mandatory evacuation zones leaving "to be on the safe side".  During the evacuation it was 24-36 hours to Dallas and 12-18 hours to Austin and San Antonio.  People ran out of gas, gas stations ran out of gas, people were filling their gas tanks with diesel just to not be stuck - all in 100 degree temps - it was at least as nightmarish as staying and having to make do without power and running water.

 

Honestly, evacuating the Houston area is just a nightmare, as 1-2 million people south of the city have to leave *through* the 2.5 million people *in* the city (most of whom don't need to leave, even for a cat 5, as per evacuation maps), and there's probably no good way to ever make that not disastrous.  But all the hype about "leave or die" and the idea that you have to be 100s of miles from the coast to be safe, and the resulting people who ignore the govt-issued leave times and leave early or leave unnecessarily "just in case" are not helping. 

 

ETA:  I'm not saying to ignore mandatory evacuation orders willy-nilly - I've seen the pictures of the west end of Galveston (not protected by the seawall) and the Bolivar Peninsula after Ike (smaller than Rita was supposed to be - a strong 2), and a ton of buildings are just *gone*.  Whole neighborhoods were destroyed on the Bolivar Peninsula.  Sometimes you need to take the lesser risk of evacuating.  But it's a *lesser* risk - not *no* risk. 

Edited October 7, 2016 by forty-two

[skimomma]

The toilet discussion is cracking me up.  Obviously, not your biggest concern in a post-hurricane disaster, but I have lived for weeks without water when our well went out when I was 8 months pg.  Dh made a makeshift compost toilet with a bucket.  He just unscrewed the seat from one of our toilets, duct taped it to a bucket, and put another bucket of sawdust (sand, charcoal, or shredded newspaper would do as well) with a sand shovel next to it.  We used it for weeks.  No biggie.  Had we known the well was going to go out, like people would know a hurricane is coming, we would have filled the bathtubs and every other available vessel so we could have used the toilets (not to mention wash ourselves!) beforehand.  

 

The drowning in a flood or getting trapped in a destroyed house would be my bigger concern.  If I chose not to evacuate and I survived all of that, I am pretty sure lack of electricity and/or water would be unpleasant but survivable.  

[MinivanMom]

..

Edited October 8, 2016 by MinivanMom

[ktgrok]

Yeah, I don't think anyone is saying it is dumb to stay if you aren't in a mandatory evacuation zone. In fact, if you aren't, and you have decent provisions/shelter, you absolutely are better staying home. Leaving is taking up the gas/road/hotels from those that HAVE to leave. And people do need to realize that a Cat 5 in one part of the state doesn't mean everyone will get Cat 5 winds. Those are near the eye, not the rest of the storm. And no, you don't need to be hundreds of miles away. 50 miles may be plenty. Or even less, just far enough away to be away from the storm surge, for example. 

 

But just as dumb is thinking that bottled water and food, or a generator, will keep your roof on in a Cat 5 direct hit. 

[Lady Florida.]

 

 

Take a look at the photos coming out of St. Augustine and Jacksonville Beach, which ended up getting hit instaed of Merritt Island and Cocoa, which was predicted, to see what could have been. 

 

 

That's also why such large areas are evacuated. Those counties had mandatory evacuations for their barrier islands even though landfall was predicted to be farther south - here in my county. As these storms often do, it changed course at the last minute and if there hadn't been evacuations and other precautions up there, it could have been worse.

[ktgrok]

That's also why such large areas are evacuated. Those counties had mandatory evacuations for their barrier islands even though landfall was predicted to be farther south - here in my county. As these storms often do, it changed course at the last minute and if there hadn't been evacuations and other precautions up there, it could have been worse.

 

Exactly. Thank heavens they were evacuated. My good friend and aunt have houses in St. augustine, which are probably flooded. And a friend in Jacksonville beach as well. I'm SO glad they evacuated. 

 

Had it stayed the course those in Merritt Island wouldn't be so smug right now. And many ARE smug. "See, I told you it would be fine."  Yes, yes, you predicted the course of a hurricane....you are obviously psychic. Sigh. 

[TX Native]

Honestly, evacuating the Houston area is just a nightmare, as 1-2 million people south of the city have to leave *through* the 2.5 million people *in* the city (most of whom don't need to leave, even for a cat 5, as per evacuation maps), and there's probably no good way to ever make that not disastrous. But all the hype about "leave or die" and the idea that you have to be 100s of miles from the coast to be safe, and the resulting people who ignore the govt-issued leave times and leave early or leave unnecessarily "just in case" are not helping.

 

.

Evacuating from south Houston during rush hour is almost just as bad as evacuating during a mandatory hurricane evacuation, lol. Well, I admit it's an exaggeration, but it didn't feel like an exaggeration when I was a kid.

Edited October 7, 2016 by TX native

[forty-two]

Yeah, I don't think anyone is saying it is dumb to stay if you aren't in a mandatory evacuation zone. In fact, if you aren't, and you have decent provisions/shelter, you absolutely are better staying home. Leaving is taking up the gas/road/hotels from those that HAVE to leave. And people do need to realize that a Cat 5 in one part of the state doesn't mean everyone will get Cat 5 winds. Those are near the eye, not the rest of the storm. And no, you don't need to be hundreds of miles away. 50 miles may be plenty. Or even less, just far enough away to be away from the storm surge, for example. 

 

Thing is, in the Houston area, a worst-case direct hit from a cat 5, with the eye going straight up the I-45 corridor right over the heart of Houston (which is what was predicted/feared with Rita) - the vast majority of Houston itself is still *not* in any evacuation zone.  (I grew up there as a kid - I stared at the evacuation maps a lot.)  But when Rita was coming, and the dire worst-case scenarios were being hyped, the *mayor* of Houston was all "leave to be on the safe side" until the gridlock was well and truly underway, and then he moderated his statements to be "only leave if you are ordered to".  If the mayor of Houston himself didn't understand that the majority of his city was better off staying put even for a direct cat 5 hit, is it any surprise that no one else did, either?  (And this was literally 3 weeks after Katrina, and that did play a huge part in the overwhelming "leave if there's any doubt at all" hype.)

 

Edited October 7, 2016 by forty-two

[TX Native]

.

Edited April 30, 2017 by TX native

[TheReader]

Even the hospitals in the evacuation zones closed down, for the most part. And the gas stations were not being filled during the storm. Now, if you mean she was AT the hospital, which was open and not evacuated, and he was out on the job, not in the actual evacuation zone, then yes, I understand that. But they weren't home, I'm assuming.

No, I mean exactly what I said. When our area had mandatory evacuation from hurricane Rita, our next door neighbors both had to remain at home in order to be at their jobs, also located within the evacuation zone. He filled gas stations up to the last few hours I assume, she was working (yes, at the hospital, not home, but still in the evacuation zone, and the hospital was open), and then they were at home after his shift ended and hers ended.

 

They in fact called us 8-10 hrs after we evacuated, because my SIL had arrived (finally) at our house and was coming in to get maps, water, food, etc before traveling the rest of the way to her evac point. The neighbor was home, stopped her, called us to confirm it was not a looter, and then let her proceed. His wife was, yes, at work at the hospital. He went back out shortly after refilling gas stations.

 

Incidentally, plenty of other hospitals in the surrounding area were open and not 100% evacuated as well.

[forty-two]

And what's with the lyrics to the state song every 7th grader has to learn ".....Texas our Texas, so wonderful so great! Boldest and grandest, withstanding every test..." when the mayor of the most populated city recommends an evacuation and the city is not a mandatory evacuation area?

 

:lol:  The amazing power of hype and seeing evacuation as a no-risk always-safer-than-staying choice?  And the determination to learn from Katrina gone overboard - "don't take any chances, not a single one!!!" - and then learning that everyone leaving whether they need to or not doesn't solve all your hurricane problems and in fact creates new ones.

 

 

On a separate note, about people with crappy jobs that they can't afford to lose and having to take a personal day or unpaid leave if you want to evacuate without the company closing for the storm: 

 

My dh worked for a non-profit in Brevard county.  We got a tropical storm that flooded the county, and they *did* close the office and told the employees not to come in.  And then he was required to use his personal leave time to cover that day off that *they* ordered.  I was 8mo pg at the time and he was carefully hording his extremely limited time off for the birth, and that cut it in half.  I was *so* mad - it still makes me mad now, eight years later.

Edited October 7, 2016 by forty-two

[nd293]

Fear of possessions being looted can be a very strong motivator. Wanting to physically protect the home from the storm is another. Previous evacuation advice which was overly cautious. Staying previously and being ok would probably be a powerful motivator.

 

There must be some very interesting psychological research around storms. We stayed during a cyclone (as they call hurricanes in the Indian Ocean) - we weren't directly advised to leave, but a lot of friends did. We were forced upstairs due to floodwater. It was a very frightening experience. But it was interesting afterwards to see how the storm affected people - there wasn't a correlation between the severity of the experience and the level of trauma. So overall psychology probably also plays a big part in who resists evacuation. Level of risk tolerance, perhaps.

 

ETA: being stuck in traffic in a potentially more dangerous situation would worry me. Also if you feel prepared with food and water you'd be more likely to be comfortable staying.

Edited October 7, 2016 by nd293

[TheReader]

I don't expect people not told to evacuate, to do do. I'm talking about people in mandatory evacuation zones. Like my parents, on a barrier island in the direct path of a major hurricane. The only ares I know of that were evacuated were the barrier islands, some low coastal areas, and pretty much all of the city of St. Augustine.

 

The rest of us are just under a curfew, no being on the roads.

But the thing is, as you know, the path can shift. With Rita, the mandatory evac zone wasn't hit at all (so we all evac'ed for nothing), and it hit a few hours up the coast where they weren't expecting to even really get much rain because they were on the "clean" side of things. Some of those in the "recommended" evac zone were glad to have left, others were horrified to end up riding out a much worse part of the storm than expected.

 

I understood the OP to be asking about evacuating in general, not just those who refuse in a mandatory evac situation, and answered as such....because of exactly this, the unpredictability of it all.

[ktgrok]

No, I mean exactly what I said. When our area had mandatory evacuation from hurricane Rita, our next door neighbors both had to remain at home in order to be at their jobs, also located within the evacuation zone. He filled gas stations up to the last few hours I assume, she was working (yes, at the hospital, not home, but still in the evacuation zone, and the hospital was open), and then they were at home after his shift ended and hers ended.

 

 

Crazy! Here, any hospital workers (my neighbors and some friends all work in hospitals) had to be in before the winds picked up, and had to stay until the winds died back down and the curfew was lifted. they were locked in for the duration. No going home after a shift, everyone that was working was working the whole time period, no exceptions. 

[ktgrok]

ah, I was just talking about mandatory evacuations. I also think this discussion highlights the imporance of HOW that evacuation is handled. Here, it was put in place far earlier than some thought was needed, but for exactly the reasons stated above. There was plenty of time, so no one stuck on the road during the storm. Extra gas was brought in, and we had plenty. In some areas (not here) I heard that they reversed one lane of the highway to make it so that both sides were used for evacuation. Shelters were opened in plenty of time. Really, there was no reason not to evacuate, if on the barrier islands or an area under mandatory evacuataion. But I see how experience in a different, poorly handled one could make one nervous about it. 

[ktgrok]

Also, we had plenty of pet friendly shelters in very solid structures with no windows (mostly gyms and auditoriums and such in the local school that were purposely built to serve as shelters), with generators, ice, water, food, etc. With free bus transportation to the shelters. 

[ktgrok]

Also, people need to not wait till the last minute, if they don' have to. My lovely aunt, bless her, has more money than she could ever need. No job holding her in the city. She's single. She lives on the water in St. Augusting, and yesterday called looking for a place to stay. Of course I said yes, but she was also worried about driving in the bad weather, and she is allergic to my dogs and cats. Plus my son and I are sick. She did end up staying with a friend and a friend's daughter not far from me. But what I kept thinking is, you have another house, in the mountains of North Carolina. You knew the storm was coming, why not just fly up there a few days ago? Or anywhere, for that matter? Time to take a vacation!

 

Another person, an acquaintance a few blocks away, just posted that she lost power. She has a cooler, but no ice. Why? We had days to make ice, even if you didn't buy any. And I had posted on Facebook all week the places to buy ice in our town. 

[Pawz4me]

So without the well, what would you do? Use the bathtub I guess? I'm thinking of cases where going to the store for more or setting out buckets is not an option (they will get flipped over in the storm).

 

 

 

Ooops, sorry for the confusion! I stated we had a well because wells require electricity to run the pump to get water to the house. No electricity = no water (unlike a municipal water system that continues to flow during most power outages). So when we had ice storms or when the power went out for any other reason we had no water. We always had plenty of jugs kept filled with water for flushing. Many, many gallons of water.

[forty-two]

ah, I was just talking about mandatory evacuations. I also think this discussion highlights the imporance of HOW that evacuation is handled. Here, it was put in place far earlier than some thought was needed, but for exactly the reasons stated above. There was plenty of time, so no one stuck on the road during the storm. Extra gas was brought in, and we had plenty. In some areas (not here) I heard that they reversed one lane of the highway to make it so that both sides were used for evacuation. Shelters were opened in plenty of time. Really, there was no reason not to evacuate, if on the barrier islands or an area under mandatory evacuataion. But I see how experience in a different, poorly handled one could make one nervous about it.

Agree that bad evacuation experiences cause people to be more hesitant about leaving. My parents are in a cat 3 evacuation zone, close to the cat 4 zone, and they stayed for Alicia (a cat 3) back in 1983 in part because of friends' bad evacuation experiences for a previous hurricane that didn't hit (18 hours from the south side of Houston to the north side). My mom had said never again, actually, wrt staying for a cat 3, after Alicia (idk why). But they did stay for Ike (forecast to make landfall as a 3), after Dad carefully studied elevation maps and was sure they would be fine even for a worst-likely-case storm surge - and the whole Rita evacuation may have played a part. I know my mom hated not knowing what is going on with her house when she left.

 

But, at least for my parents, while they are more likely to stay when the stay/go decision is at the margins - when they are at the edge of the evacuation zone but they judge their particular location to be safe enough - they go when they are well within the likely storm surge predications. My dad's always said that a direct hit from a cat 5 would completely destroy our house - and that they weren't willing to risk staying for a cat 4. It's a risk assessment, where they prefer to stay if possible but aren't going to willy-nilly ignore evacuation orders either.

 

 

Also, just a comment about opening up both sides of the road for an evacuation. Talking about Rita again ;), it apparently took 8-10 hours from the time they made the decision to open the contra flow lanes before they were actually open to evacuation traffic (all the usual traffic was off and kept off). I hadn't properly realized that it would take that long to implement.

[HollyDay]

We've been through a storm or 2 or 3 or 4 and I can tell you we have evacuated for quite a few.  A few we did ride out.  I know the times we did evacuate, folks generally thought we were nuts.  We kept hearing things like, "It never does anything."  "Just gonna blow some, nothing ever really happens."  "Just news people wanting to up ratings" "I was here for XYZ hurricane back in 19-- and it was fine."

 

I was a child when Camille came through.  I was a young adult for Andrew.  Andrew scared a lot of people.  And a lot of people remembered, for a while. 

 

When we chose to evacuate, we always left early.  And yes, that sometimes meant we "left for nothing."  And yes, if you live on the coast and it is a busy season (like about 13 years ago) then that gets expensive fast. 

 

I think so many long time residents see storms come and see storms go and see storms come close but not quite.  And they think this time will be like all the other times.  But, you just don't know.....

[ktgrok]

But, at least for my parents, while they are more likely to stay when the stay/go decision is at the margins - when they are at the edge of the evacuation zone but they judge their particular location to be safe enough - they go when they are well within the likely storm surge predications. My dad's always said that a direct hit from a cat 5 would completely destroy our house - and that they weren't willing to risk staying for a cat 4. It's a risk assessment, where they prefer to stay if possible but aren't going to willy-nilly ignore evacuation orders either.

 

 

Also, just a comment about opening up both sides of the road for an evacuation. Talking about Rita again ;), it apparently took 8-10 hours from the time they made the decision to open the contra flow lanes before they were actually open to evacuation traffic (all the usual traffic was off and kept off). I hadn't properly realized that it would take that long to implement.

 

SaveSaveSee that makes sense to me. Staying on a barrier island with a Cat 4 predicted to make a direct his, does not make sense. When talking to my parents I totally conceded that staying for a Cat 1-2 made sense, given their situation. But that 3 or higher, they needed to bug out. 

 

And here, the highways were open pretty quickly, from what I understand. I acutely dislike our governor, but this evacuation and storm was handled REALLY well from what I can see. The only complaint I've heard was third hand, that one of the shelters needed more blankets and pillows. 

[stephanier.1765]

The only complaint I've heard was third hand, that one of the shelters needed more blankets and pillows. 

 

This must differ by county because here the only thing offered in way of bedding was a cot and those were first come, first served. I did wonder about food. Certainly they had something for the evacuees but on TV they were saying to take food with you so I'm not sure. Maybe they just meant snacks.

[ktgrok]

This must differ by county because here the only thing offered in way of bedding was a cot and those were first come, first served. I did wonder about food. Certainly they had something for the evacuees but on TV they were saying to take food with you so I'm not sure. Maybe they just meant snacks.

It might even differ by shelter, really, I'm not sure. But I saw a plea for more blankets for one of them. 

 

I think maybe they had some food, but weren't sure how much they would need, so asked people to bring food. 

[heartlikealion]

Another thing not mentioned (or maybe it was and I missed it) is that if you're traveling with very old or young, it's more challenging than staying home maybe. Like getting stuck in bumper to bumper traffic with no pit stop in sight and a crying baby. You might have to prepare a bottle and not have a lot of water with you, etc. (or even easily breastfeed in that situation if you're breastfeeding). I couldn't imagine. I didn't have kids back then, but we were traveling with my 90 yr old grandma when we evacuated one time. This made it very essential for us to find a hotel room.

 

I'm just talking hypothetically about the toilet thing. We never actually had a storm where we were in the house trying to figure out a way to flush the toilet that I can recall. Or if we were, it was very short-lived. I vaguely remember having water (maybe it was off, then back on) because I showered at a stranger's home. No way to heat up the water, but when it first came on there was some residual heat. I don't think it was a bathtub, I think it was a shower stall but I don't remember. What was ironic about it all is this man that let us stay with him lived in a trailer park. Our house was made of brick and a complete uninhabitable wreck. We were closer to water, though. I am a princess when it comes to stuff like toilets and OCD about germs, so "just make a compost toilet" isn't really up my alley lol. Although that's pretty clever and I may need to keep that in mind. These days we live far enough away that we'd likely be fine, but family might travel to us to stay.

 

Evacuating isn't a risk-free proposition, though.  Not just in terms of jobs and money and property, but also to your life.  I was reading about Hurricane Rita last night - my parents live south of Houston and I remember how it was right after Katrina and everyone was evacuating to be on the safe side (my parents left - first hurricane they left for (they are on the edge of the cat 3 evacuation zone, and had stayed for a cat 3 in the past; Dad's done his research about their house's elevation and how big of a storm surge it would take to reach them)).  And all the hysteria about "cat 5 = death" that caused tons of people who were well out of the evacuation zones, even for a cat 5, to "leave to be on the safe side".  And of the 120-odd deaths in the U.S. from the storm, over *100* of them were from the evacuation itself.  Seven directly from hyperthermia, and the rest from hyperthermia aggravating underlying conditions.  (And there was the bus fire that a pp mentioned.)  And a lot of the gridlock was from people who were *not* in mandatory evacuation zones leaving "to be on the safe side".  During the evacuation it was 24-36 hours to Dallas and 12-18 hours to Austin and San Antonio.  People ran out of gas, gas stations ran out of gas, people were filling their gas tanks with diesel just to not be stuck - all in 100 degree temps - it was at least as nightmarish as staying and having to make do without power and running water.

 

Honestly, evacuating the Houston area is just a nightmare, as 1-2 million people south of the city have to leave *through* the 2.5 million people *in* the city (most of whom don't need to leave, even for a cat 5, as per evacuation maps), and there's probably no good way to ever make that not disastrous.  But all the hype about "leave or die" and the idea that you have to be 100s of miles from the coast to be safe, and the resulting people who ignore the govt-issued leave times and leave early or leave unnecessarily "just in case" are not helping. 

 

ETA:  I'm not saying to ignore mandatory evacuation orders willy-nilly - I've seen the pictures of the west end of Galveston (not protected by the seawall) and the Bolivar Peninsula after Ike (smaller than Rita was supposed to be - a strong 2), and a ton of buildings are just *gone*.  Whole neighborhoods were destroyed on the Bolivar Peninsula.  Sometimes you need to take the lesser risk of evacuating.  But it's a *lesser* risk - not *no* risk. 

 

I'm not sure I follow this. Leaving early might mean the roads start getting congested sooner? But leaving when everyone else does guarantees congestion. I would leave early to avoid traffic and get a hotel if given a choice. And also to open myself up to a different route, whereas when everyone leaves at the same time you have to narrow down the route/destination much more.