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Prepare for flooding in CA


Liz CA
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What is the update on the flooding?  We are still thinking about driving through California along the coast (Hwy 101) probably from Oregon to San Francisco area in a little less than 2 weeks.

I think it would probably be OK.

I haven't seen any forecasts of these really severe storms in that time.

This time of the year it's smart to keep and eye on the weather, of course, and check the CA DOT website for freeway conditions every day before setting out.

 

But where you're talking about sounds like it will be just fine.

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What is the update on the flooding? We are still thinking about driving through California along the coast (Hwy 101) probably from Oregon to San Francisco area in a little less than 2 weeks.

I don't think US 101 gets flooded at all. You can check for US 101 status here http://www.dot.ca.gov/hq/roadinfo/display.php?page=us101

 

We took Highway 1 to Oregon, resting at Fort Bragg and Eureka. We also went to the Drive Thru tree at Leggett. You can check Highway 1 status here http://www.dot.ca.gov/cgi-bin/roads.cgi?roadnumber=1&submit=Search

Edited by Arcadia
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Typically it's a title given by the insurance company due to the claim volume. It's more claims than their on site staff can adequately handle.

OK, well, that makes a lot of sense.

 

There are plenty of people who have had fences blow down or trees fall on their homes or cars or fences.  There were roads that washed out also, and public entities might have insurance for that and for mudslides.

 

But we are not, along the 101 corridor at least, dealing with widespread persistent residuals that would make it unsafe to travel.  The reason I suggested checking the CA DOT is that there are spot problems in a storm that are wise to know about, like the frequent flooding of the 101 grade north of the Golden Gate Bridge.  But this is not a case like after an earthquake where everything is laying in ruins or anything like that.

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Santa Barbara county is affected by this week's storm system

 

"Nearly a dozen people were trapped in Santa Barbara’s El Capitan Canyon as authorities devised a rescue plan. Firefighters pulled one person from a car that stuck when a creek overflowed nearby, said Capt. Dave Zaniboni of the Santa Barbara County Fire Department.

 

There were no reports of injuries.

 

At least five cabins and 15 cars were caught in the floods near El Capitan State Beach, Zaniboni added.

 

Flash flood warnings were also issued for the San Joaquin Valley, the Central Coast counties, all of Los Angeles county and parts of Orange, Riverside, San Diego counties, and Ventura County."

 

"Most of the flooding is expected in Sonoma County, San Benito County and in the Santa Cruz Mountains as flash flood warnings were issued for Morgan Hill, Petaluma and San Lorenzo Valley, Anderson said."

 

http://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/article/Scattered-showers-in-the-Bay-Area-as-protestors-10871594.php

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What is the update on the flooding?  We are still thinking about driving through California along the coast (Hwy 101) probably from Oregon to San Francisco area in a little less than 2 weeks.

 

Pay special attention to mud slides that frequently happen along the coast when we have a rainy year. If you stay on 101, you may be fine. If you feel like veering off to Hwy 1, mudslides are more likely. There is a stretch where 101 is also the coastal highway.

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Arcadia, are the flood warnings for Sonoma County mainly for the Russian River area? The Petaluma River only flooded slightly during last storm from what I heard.

I don't know. The new flash flood warning for tonight covers a big area. The creek near my home is still high from the rain from last week and this week.

 

"FLOOD WATCH

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA

346 AM PST SAT JAN 21 2017

 

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE SAN

FRANCISCO BAY AREA AND CENTRAL COAST...

 

.THE THIRD IN A SERIES OF STRONG STORM SYSTEMS IS EXPECTED TO

PRODUCE PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH

SUNDAY MORNING. THIS ADDITIONAL RAIN ON ALREADY SATURATED SOILS

WILL LIKELY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING OF AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS AS

WELL AS LOCAL URBAN AREAS.

...

 

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

 

* A PORTION OF WESTERN CALIFORNIA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING

AREAS...COASTAL NORTH BAY INCLUDING POINT REYES NATIONAL

SEASHORE...EAST BAY HILLS AND THE DIABLO RANGE...EAST BAY

INTERIOR VALLEYS...MOUNTAINS OF SAN BENITO COUNTY AND INTERIOR

MONTEREY COUNTY INCLUDING PINNACLES NATIONAL MONUMENT...NORTH

BAY INTERIOR VALLEYS...NORTH BAY MOUNTAINS...NORTHERN MONTEREY

BAY...NORTHERN SALINAS VALLEY/HOLLISTER VALLEY AND CARMEL

VALLEY...SAN FRANCISCO...SAN FRANCISCO BAY SHORELINE...SAN

FRANCISCO PENINSULA COAST...SANTA CLARA VALLEY INCLUDING SAN

JOSE...SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS...SANTA LUCIA MOUNTAINS AND LOS

PADRES NATIONAL FOREST...SOUTHERN MONTEREY BAY AND BIG SUR COAST

AND SOUTHERN SALINAS VALLEY/ARROYO SECO AND LAKE SAN ANTONIO

...

 

* THE PRIMARY IMPACTS WILL BE LOCALIZED PONDING OF WATER ON LOW

LYING ROADWAYS WITH POOR DRAINAGE...RAPID RISES ON STREAMS AND

CREEKS WITH SOME LIKELY EXCEEDING BANKFULL...SOME RIVER

FLOODING...AND POTENTIAL ROCK AND MUD SLIDES. RECENT BURN SCARS

WILL ALSO BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO DEBRIS FLOWS DURING PERIODS OF

INTENSE RAINFALL."

http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=CAZ506&warncounty=CAC097&firewxzone=&local_place1=Santa+Rosa+CA&product1=Flood+Advisory#.WIN5dHqIZJ8

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I drive over the hill on 17 two days per week.  

Glad I wasn't doing it yesterday--http://www.mercurynews.com/2017/01/20/all-lanes-of-southbound-highway-17-closed/

 

A tree fell around 5PM (at the height of the southbound Friday commute, worst commute all week) and blocked both southbound lanes and one of the two northbound ones.  The highway was closed far into the night.  

 

Mama Geek--101 has controls and restrictions along the way that you are coming from through 1/31 due to road work and emergency work.  I would consider rerouting over to I5 which is much further inland.  There are high wind advisories along parts of 5 in NorCal but no closures.  High winds slow you down but unless you have a big trailer or a camper it is completely safe to proceed.

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We had water over the 101 in the town just north of Santa Rosa last weekend. Stopped traffic, but cleared within a day. Not sure what this latest storm will bring. Our representative, instead of attending the inauguration, was at Russian River flood cleanup. I have not heard about problems with highway 1/PCH in our area, but I know they've had significant issues in Big Sur.

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I've been offline due to illness, but am sending good wishes to all who are having any trouble due to rain.

 

Night before last I woke up to a simply spectacular lightning and thunder display. It was so bright that even though we had the blinds closed and we were sleeping, I was awoken when my eyelids lit up like I was sleeping under the sun.

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Wind was crazy last night. Our bottlebrush shrub bend over to its "knees." I have only ever heard such howling near the coast.

No rain yet today but it's clouding over very fast. Rain is supposed to start by evening.

Road conditions always get worrisome when so many trees are falling.

Edited by Liz CA
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It has been pouring since 2pm. The potholes on I880 were like little ponds to my kids as we were driving home from east bay. We saw brown cows out grazing in the rain near Automall Parkway, Fremont when we drove past at around 4:30pm.

We are home now and it's still pouring.

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There are evacuations going on in SoCal

"Officials on Saturday issued evacuation notices for more than 100 homes in Santa Clarita near the burn area of last year's Sand Fire. An evacuation center is set up at Canyon High School, 19300 Nadal St.

...

He said a reservoir above a canyon near his home “broke loose†earlier this weekend and mud came down the street instead of the river, flooding the area.

 

“It came totally across our property,†Canino said. He and his family have been working to clean up the mess since then. “It’s devastating, we have over 100 fishes dead in our pond."

 

Homes in the Fish Fire burn area in Duarte were also under mandatory evacuation starting at 7 a.m. Sunday. Rain pounded the area Friday and Saturday, causing mud to flow in the streets."

http://ktla.com/2017/01/22/third-storm-brings-heavy-rains-strong-winds-and-flooding-concerns/

 

Cliff collapses in Santa Barbara County; residents evacuated http://www.latimes.com/local/california/la-me-live-winter-weather-california-cliff-collapses-in-santa-barbara-1485140666-htmlstory.html

"A cliff and a patio collapsed into the ocean Sunday afternoon in Isla Vista as a powerful rainstorm walloped California’s coast.

 

The collapse forced officials to evacuate 15 to 20 residents of oceanfront apartment units, according to Gina DePinto, a spokeswoman for Santa Barbara County."

 

Widespread flooding, mudslides, evacuations as biggest storm in years batters California http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-new-storm-california-floods-muslides-snow-20170121-story.html

"Numerous roads around Southern California were flooded by sustained bursts of intense rain. The 710 Freeway flooded, prompting the California Highway Patrol to close both directions of the thoroughfare at Pacific Coast Highway. The 110 Freeway experienced high water near Torrance, where the CHP shut down all lanes for several hours. Numerous surface streets were also blocked by standing water, fallen trees, and rockslides."

 

Highway 37 likely to be closed into the coming week http://www.sfgate.com/aboutsfgate/article/Update-Highway-37-Likely-To-Be-Closed-Into-The-10875502.php

"A portion of state Highway 37 in Novato will likely stay closed into the coming week, as the area is completely flooded, according to the California Highway Patrol.

The closure was announced earlier this morning, just before 7 a.m., shutting down both directions of the highway between U.S. Highway 101 and Atherton Avenue."

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17 has been bad today, too.  A mudslide down south, and another tree down across multiple lanes in the northern part.  

My friends in the Santa Cruz Mountains are having a really rough time.  Basically every time they leave their homes, it's anyone's guess whether they can get back or not.  One family I know had their lower level flood, lost their water supply as of early Friday, but thankfully still has electricity, and the flooding did recede.

 

 

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My friends in the Santa Cruz Mountains are having a really rough time. Basically every time they leave their homes, it's anyone's guess whether they can get back or not. One family I know had their lower level flood, lost their water supply as of early Friday, but thankfully still has electricity, and the flooding did recede.

Hopefully your friends are not affected by this mudslide.

 

"Huge slide destroys Love Creek Falls in Santa Cruz Mountains

SANTA CRUZ — In a harrowing development echoing the January 1982 tragedy that killed 10, a massive swath of saturated mountainside above Love Creek Road gave way at 4:45 p.m. Monday, destroying Love Creek Falls and sending residents scrambling.

...

“That whole area up there that slid today is where some of those houses were perched,†said Dennis. “This slide isn’t just near the 1982 site. It’s in it.â€

 

The new slide at Love Creek Falls is just another on a long list of storm-related hazards and closed roads in the Santa Cruz Mountains and beyond.

 

Outside of Boulder Creek, a large slide had closed Hopkins Gulch Road late Saturday night, trapping roughly 50 residents.

 

On Sunday morning, John Jackson rallied neighbors Greg McLain and Bill Bibby. Together, the three men cleared tons of mud and debris for two days, effectively opening the road to traffic by Monday afternoon."

http://www.mercurynews.com/2017/01/23/huge-slide-destroys-love-creek-falls-in-santa-cruz-mountains/

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My friends are not directly effected by those slides, but the whole area is basically a destabilized pile of saturated mud.  It's quite alarming.

 

And 17 still has a slide blocking one of the northbound lanes, and no safer alternative route.  This is a major thoroughfare for thousands of people, not a little side road.  I had been seriously planning to move to the Santa Cruz Mountains within a couple of years, and am rethinking that.  

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I don't really watch the news anymore and don't usually check the weather in other areas.

Tornadoes in the east. We had considered a job in Hattiesburg last year and when we pulled into the hotel the tornado siren was blaring, not a good sign. The one tornado ripped through Hattiesburg the past couple of days.

 

Carol in Cal., there sometimes is no geographical safety. I've posted before that here in TX, in this county in the past 8 years, we've had tornadoes, blizzard conditions, ice storms, snow storms, sheer force winds, large hail, flooding, tropical storm rains and flooding, wildfires, smoke bad enough to keep you inside for a few days, dust storms, drought, temperatures near 0, temperatures of 110 or more, earthquakes (minimal but very damaging to homes). Nothing has happened to us or our property. We've been inconvenienced many times by various weather events, and scared, but you just never know how your life will or will not be impacted. 

 

 

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Carol in Cal., there sometimes is no geographical safety. 

Oh sure, I know that.

 

My grandfather was born in San Francisco on the day of the Great Earthquake.  12 hours later.  I grew up on earthquake stories.  So random, so devastating.  And another one could knock all our houses and infrastructure out at any time.

 

Right now I live in a neighborhood that was swampy 100 years ago.  It's a liquifaction event waiting to happen.  But I'm on relatively high, flat ground, so I'm not worried about flooding here, particularly.  And I have done all I can to prepare for an earthquake.

 

If I moved to the SCM, I would have all of that danger plus a very high likelihood of severe flooding and mudslides much more often.  I have to weigh that, since our next move will probably be to where we will live for the rest of our lives.  This fairly lengthy ordeal is reminding me of those issues.  And so now I'm leaning more toward the hills up the Peninsula, or in the North Bay.

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  • 3 weeks later...

Another big warm rain storm.  Wish I didn't have to go over 17 again today.

Yesterday I drove down around 7:30, and when I returned around 1 there was a huge slide blocking both of the southbound lanes I had travelled earlier.  

 

Lexington continues to get higher and browner every time I see it, despite the spillways being open and the river raging out of it.  

 

 

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Another big warm rain storm.  Wish I didn't have to go over 17 again today.

Yesterday I drove down around 7:30, and when I returned around 1 there was a huge slide blocking both of the southbound lanes I had travelled earlier.  

 

Lexington continues to get higher and browner every time I see it, despite the spillways being open and the river raging out of it.  

 

I hope you are safe. Better stay home when in doubt.

Up north, the Oroville Dam is being watched. It's the largest earthen dam and if it let loose, most of the central valley could flood.

Dh also said something about the Shasta Dam but I am not sure if there is any concern. We got interrupted during that conversation.

 

I really like warm rains but this winter, we've been saturated.

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Another big warm rain storm.  Wish I didn't have to go over 17 again today.

Yesterday I drove down around 7:30, and when I returned around 1 there was a huge slide blocking both of the southbound lanes I had travelled earlier.  

 

Lexington continues to get higher and browner every time I see it, despite the spillways being open and the river raging out of it.  

I think I would reschedule. I was supposed to drive up to Santa Rosa today and I rescheduled for next week. 

 

I'm sooooo over it. 

 

Also, the freaking ants are using my house as a life preserver. Blech.

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Another big warm rain storm. Wish I didn't have to go over 17 again today.

Hope you were able to reschedule. If not, hope you have a safe drive both ways.

 

There was a fatal accident on Hwy 17 an hour ago.

"SCOTTS VALLEY, Calif. (KTVU) - A dump truck hit two workers who were trying to clear the mudslide on Highway 17 in the Santa Cruz Mountains.

 

According to the CHP, one of the workers died in the accident. The other was pinned under the vehicle and was taken to a hospital with injuries. " http://www.ktvu.com/news/234812188-story

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"FEBRUARY 12, 2017 4:44 PM BREAKING: Threat of Oroville spillway collapse prompts evacuation of Marysville, Yuba, Butte and Sutter counties

 

More than 162,000 residents in Butte, Sutter and Yuba counties were affected by Sunday night’s evacuation orders, census figures show.

...

There is no map showing exactly what will happen if the emergency spillway collapses tonight. Officials only have a map showing a failure of the dam. That worst case scenario is useful in that it shows where water goes and how fast it gets there.

 

Water would get to the town of Oroville within an hour.

 

If Oroville Dam were to suffer a massive breach, water would get to the town of Oroville within an hour, according to GIS maps maintained by CalFire.

 

Within two hours, the small town of Briggs would be affected. In three hours, Gridley would be hit. Water would reach Live Oak in five hours..

 

It would take eight to 12 hours for the water to get to Marysville and Yuba City.

 

If the dam completely failed, flood depths could reach more than 100 feet in Oroville and up to 10 feet in Yuba City."

http://www.sacbee.com/news/state/california/water-and-drought/article132332499.html

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"FEBRUARY 12, 2017 4:44 PM BREAKING: Threat of Oroville spillway collapse prompts evacuation of Marysville, Yuba, Butte and Sutter counties

 

More than 162,000 residents in Butte, Sutter and Yuba counties were affected by Sunday night’s evacuation orders, census figures show.

...

There is no map showing exactly what will happen if the emergency spillway collapses tonight. Officials only have a map showing a failure of the dam. That worst case scenario is useful in that it shows where water goes and how fast it gets there.

 

Water would get to the town of Oroville within an hour.

 

If Oroville Dam were to suffer a massive breach, water would get to the town of Oroville within an hour, according to GIS maps maintained by CalFire.

 

Within two hours, the small town of Briggs would be affected. In three hours, Gridley would be hit. Water would reach Live Oak in five hours..

 

It would take eight to 12 hours for the water to get to Marysville and Yuba City.

 

If the dam completely failed, flood depths could reach more than 100 feet in Oroville and up to 10 feet in Yuba City."

http://www.sacbee.com/news/state/california/water-and-drought/article132332499.html

 

Thanks for the update. We just heard about this from family, and it's good to have specifics.

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To prepare:  Move things off the basement/first floor, have a "vital documents" file that sits in a handy spot and can be grabbed within 60 seconds if you need to evacuate, install a sump pump in your basement with a water powered backup, don't drive through water where you can't see the road, prune/remove trees/large bushes that are diseased or for other reasons not well-anchored.  Good luck Californians.

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Putting the Oroville Dam issue into perspective, the dam is around 50 years old, and the emergency spillway has never operated before.  It was considered a failsafe that would never be used, I understand.  

 

Yes, this is the current situation. We are in one of the counties that received evac order and we are now safely ensconced in a hotel room out of the danger zone. With our boxer. :)

 

Dh and I sat around the living room, talking when a friend of his called to tell us that there was an evac order. We packed hastily a few things and that was it.

I have now lived through earthquake, wildfires and now potential flooding.

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I can't imagine. How can you efficiently evacuate so many people? 

 

I am glad dh rushed me because we avoided the thick traffic and made it ahead of the crowd.

Some areas are one big parking lot. And people are panicking and driving recklessly, passing others on the shoulder. On the radio, I heard that they estimated 185,000 people were on the move.

Edited by Liz CA
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Yes, this is the current situation. We are in one of the counties that received evac order and we are now safely ensconced in a hotel room out of the danger zone. With our boxer. :)

 

Dh and I sat around the living room, talking when a friend of his called to tell us that there was an evac order. We packed hastily a few things and that was it.

I have now lived through earthquake, wildfires and now potential flooding.

 

That's enough disasters for you!! Glad to hear you left asap and are tucked away safely.  :grouphug:

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Putting the Oroville Dam issue into perspective, the dam is around 50 years old, and the emergency spillway has never operated before.  It was considered a failsafe that would never be used, I understand.  

 

for now the water level is below the emergency spillway.  it's still going over the main - damaged - spillway.  they will start looking to reinforce the emergency spillway after daylight tomorrow.

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for now the water level is below the emergency spillway.  it's still going over the main - damaged - spillway.  they will start looking to reinforce the emergency spillway after daylight tomorrow.

Right, I think it just dropped low enough.  It's still too high, though.  Did you see them loading up those huge boulders to try to drop them down into the stream to kind of 'sandbag' the problem area?  Gnarly for sure.

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Yes, this is the current situation. We are in one of the counties that received evac order and we are now safely ensconced in a hotel room out of the danger zone. With our boxer. :)

 

Dh and I sat around the living room, talking when a friend of his called to tell us that there was an evac order. We packed hastily a few things and that was it.

I have now lived through earthquake, wildfires and now potential flooding.

How awful, I sure hope this turns out to be a false alarm but better safe than sorry.  

Let us know if we can help.

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Please stay safe, Liz. The forecast shows us getting a wall of water (3 days of solid rain) here in San Diego next weekend. Are you guys due to get hit up there soon? This has been the wettest winter I've ever seen in Southern California.

Edited by SeaConquest
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How awful, I sure hope this turns out to be a false alarm but better safe than sorry.  

Let us know if we can help.

 

Thank you. We are safe for now. Dh is very fast in his responses and thinks clearly so he ushered me out very quickly.

I just heard that the spillway has no water going over it anymore and lake levels are sinking slightly because they are releasing twice as much water over the main spillway which is damaged but still works.

I really wonder if there will be some heads rolling since maintenance seems to have been neglected. During all those super dry years, the concrete was exposed to our summer temps of F100+ and it is no surprise to me that concrete would be cracked over time - and I am no dam engineer. ;)

 

Please stay safe, Liz. The forecast shows us getting a wall of water (3 days of solid rain) here in San Diego next weekend. Are you guys due to get hit up there soon? This has been the wettest winter I've ever seen in Southern California.

 

Our forecast also says Wednesday evening the next "atmospheric river" is supposed to hit us. Yippie Yeah. We'll see how well they can patch the main spillway. Perhaps we should have a standing reservation at this place. It's pretty nice, not expensive and they take doggies. :)

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The forecast shows us getting a wall of water (3 days of solid rain) here in San Diego next weekend. Are you guys due to get hit up there soon?

 

My area is supposed to get rain down from Thursday to Friday, Sunday to Thursday.

 

Yes, this is the current situation. We are in one of the counties that received evac order and we are now safely ensconced in a hotel room out of the danger zone. With our boxer. :)

Thank goodness you and your family are safe.
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Right, I think it just dropped low enough.  It's still too high, though.  Did you see them loading up those huge boulders to try to drop them down into the stream to kind of 'sandbag' the problem area?  Gnarly for sure.

 

On the radio I heard that blackhawk helicopters have been dispatched to drop boulders into the gouged area of the spillway. In the dark! Or only with the lighting they can provide. God be with them.

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On the radio I heard that blackhawk helicopters have been dispatched to drop boulders into the gouged area of the spillway. In the dark! Or only with the lighting they can provide. God be with them.

 

That sounds crazy in daylight!!  Of course, they most hopefully have NVGs, my husband has flown at night with NVGs and says you can see pretty well.

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I am glad dh rushed me because we avoided the thick traffic and made it ahead of the crowd.

Some areas are one big parking lot. And people are panicking and driving recklessly, passing others on the shoulder. On the radio, I heard that they estimated 185,000 people were on the move.

 

Wow.  I hope everyone stays safe...  :grouphug: to all of you!

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"BREAKING: No word when evacuation order for 188,000 will be lifted as Oroville threat remains

 

Despite officials saying the immediate threat from Oroville Dam’s damaged spillway has passed, Butte County Sheriff Kory Honea said no decision has been made on when people will be allowed back into their homes.

 

Because of the uncertainty about the condition of the spillways, Honea said he is not prepared to risk public safety.

 

“I’m not going to lift the evacuation order until I have a better idea of what that means and what risk that poses,†Honea said.

...

Speaking at a 10 p.m. press conference, officials said water had stopped flowing over the emergency spillway and that the release of 100,000 cubic feet of water per second from the main spillway had helped drop the lake level.

...

Orrock said efforts Sunday night to shore up the damage included the use of six helicopters that were dropping containers of boulders onto the damaged hillside.

...

Now, officials should be able to start assessing damage to the emergency spillway as it begins to dry. “They are going to dry out the emergency spillway area,†Countryman said. “They are going to start the repair work.â€

 

This does not mean that the risk of catastrophic flooding has passed. Officials released water so quickly over the damaged main spillway that they may have further threatened its integrity, Countryman said.

...

For thousands in this area, battered in the 1960s, 1980s and 1990s by catastrophic flooding, they know this is no drill, motorists naming their destinations as if it were a local bus route: Browns Valley, Brownsville, Grass Valley.

...

Beale Air Force announced that it will allow residents to travel across the base to evacuate to higher ground. Drivers can enter at the Doolittle Gate off Hammonton Smartsville Road or Schneider Gate off North Beale Road. They will then exit via the Grass Valley gate.

 

The base also has opened a shelter for 400 people at the Harris Fitness Center."

 

http://www.sacbee.com/news/state/california/water-and-drought/article132332499.html

Edited by Arcadia
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Regarding the flooding in other decades, DH remembers waiting around with a packed car, listening to weather reports, and listening to the adults talk about which way they would go depending on which levee failed. At least this threat is all coming from one place. Ugh.

After Hurricane Katrina, I read an article saying that it had been predicted that the three largest potential natural disaster scenarios in the US included exactly what happened in New Orleans, and an earthquake-related failure of Northern California's very dated levee system.

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