Dd tested positive for COVID, round 2.

[scholastica]

9 hours ago, Malory said:

Then it should make one think twice before taking any more of these vaccines that no longer work against the current mutations.

Except they greatly reduce the severity of the disease. I had basically cold when I had it. Friends of mine who were unvaccinated were in bed for 9 days with fever, had extended symptoms and/or got long Covid. Not all vaccines reduce the chances of infection but do reduce severity of disease. For example, the chicken pox vaccine is 82% effective at preventing infection, but 98% effective at preventing death.

[Fritz]

1 hour ago, scholastica said:

What percentage of your unvaccinated staff have had Covid this year already? They would have some immunity for 3-5 months, so this surge would likely miss them. 

I'm not sure but will try to find out. I do not know of anyone at work that is unvaccinated that has had Covid in 2022. Many of them had Covid prevaccine.

Honestly, everyone I know of that has had it at work in 2022 has been vaccinated. Some of them have had Covid more than once in 2022, even within the last few months.

[KSera]

1 hour ago, Fritz said:

I'm not sure but will try to find out. I do not know of anyone at work that is unvaccinated that has had Covid in 2022. Many of them had Covid prevaccine.

Honestly, everyone I know of that has had it at work in 2022 has been vaccinated. Some of them have had Covid more than once in 2022, even within the last few months.

The pool of people you know are clearly statistical outliers then. You can look at any state or hospital dashboard that tracks cases and outcomes by vaccination status and see results that show unvaccinated people are still currently about twice as likely to have Covid. Here is Oregon’s, for example:

 

 

eta: it may also be that what you’re seeing is classic base rate fallacy. If most of the people you know are vaccinated, then most people you know who get Covid will be vaccinated even when they are getting it at a lower rate than those who are not vaccinated. 

Edited June 13, 2022 by KSera

[She Travels]

12 hours ago, catz said:

It will if the data ever draws that conclusion.  Data is still pretty clear that it significantly improves outcomes.  But if you have some reliable data that indicates otherwise you are welcome to share it.

In my state, you have been more likely to die if you have been vaccinated pretty much since the vaccines rolled out. The latest data shows 60% of deaths are in the fully vaccinated. Only 54% of population is fully vaccinated in my state. https://ldh.la.gov/Coronavirus/

[KSera]

6 minutes ago, She Travels said:

In my state, you have been more likely to die if you have been vaccinated pretty much since the vaccines rolled out. The latest data shows 60% of deaths are in the fully vaccinated. Only 54% of population is fully vaccinated in my state. https://ldh.la.gov/Coronavirus/

 

I’m interested to look up Louisiana specifically for this, because it’s hard to think of a reason that it would be different there than everywhere else. I could see it being different in the last couple months because of numbers being so low that it’s hard to see an effect, but I can’t imagine earlier in the pandemic why that would be the case or that it wouldn’t have been a big deal to hear about Louisiana being such a big outlier. Here’s the national level data showing both cases and outcomes by vaccination status. 
 

[KeriJ]

30 minutes ago, KSera said:

The pool of people you know are clearly statistical outliers then. You can look at any state or hospital dashboard that tracks cases and outcomes by vaccination status and see results that show unvaccinated people are still currently about twice as likely to have Covid. Here is Oregon’s, for example:

 

 

eta: it may also be that what you’re seeing is classic base rate fallacy. If most of the people you know are vaccinated, then most people you know who get Covid will be vaccinated even when they are getting it at a lower rate than those who are not vaccinated. 

I know it's just anecdotal, but I know a very even mix of vaccinated and unvaccinated.  Almost everyone I know has had Covid.  And the deaths among those are pretty evenly vaccinated and unvaccinated. That wasn't true a year and a half ago,  but is now.

Eta: it's worth mentioning that my pool is somewhat large. Dh is a pastor and people are fairly open about their vaccination status. I've also moved numerous times and have friends and family from all over on social media. 

Edited June 13, 2022 by KeriJ

[Dmmetler]

On 6/6/2022 at 1:10 AM, Ausmumof3 said:

It won’t end based on the decisions of individuals unfortunately. I hope that if the governments globally realise having constantly sick citizens is a bad idea they will be motivated to invest in ventilation/air filtration which will reduce the spread in public spaces. 

One of my camp kids commented last week "I'm sneezy everywhere but here-I wonder why?"-I pointed at the two air purifiers that I was running in my space, which cycle the air about once every 5 minutes, on top of the HVAC upgrades done last year, which include 4" HEPA filtration, plus we were wearing masks. Basically, we're a "no pollen, dust, dust mites, mold, etc" zone :). So it's pretty great for us folks who can't breathe outdoors at this time of year here.  And, at least so far, I seem to have dodged getting COVID, even teaching mostly non-vaccinated kids with no mask mandate at school (I've kept a "please wear one, oh, you forgot yours, there's a box over there" policy since the start and taught a lot of kids how to fold and tuck a surgical mask to make it fit better)-but I don't know how much of that is that my mitigation process has worked, that I've gotten vaxxed and boosted as soon as I was eligible, if it's pure luck,  if my allergies and hyperactive immune system actually have worked in my favor, or if I've been infected multiple times and just never been symptomatic. 

Edited June 13, 2022 by Dmmetler

[KSera]

It would be an interesting sociological study to survey people's perceived impressions of covid deaths by vaccination status compared to that person's own pro- or anti-vax views. And then to compare those impressions to the actual data (hospitalization and deaths are the data points that won't be affected by some groups not testing or reporting).

[Mrs Tiggywinkle]

I have a growing suspicion that even the boosters aren’t working as well against whatever latest variant is out there.  But that’s how viruses work; they find hosts and the mutations that can evade immunity are the ones that spread.  
I really base my entirely unscientific belief on how many people I am seeing who are having Covid for the second or third time and are triple vaxxed.  A significant number of these people are really really sick, even if they don’t meet the high threshold right now for hospitalization.

Two local skilled nursing facilities have Covid outbreaks again.  They are 100% vaccinated, including all the workers because it’s required.  All workers and visitors in those facilities wear masks and the patients that are able to wear a mask wear one when they are outside their rooms.  Most of these people have had Covid once and many have had it twice, even if it was asymptomatic they know because they’re tested twice a week in the nursing homes still.  And many are really sick, but may not be reflected in hospitalization statistics as they have do not hospitalize/do not resuscitate orders.

There really seems to be no end in sight.  Every time HCW feel like we can catch our breath, it starts up again.

Edited June 13, 2022 by Mrs Tiggywinkle

[KeriJ]

2 minutes ago, KSera said:

It would be an interesting sociological study to survey people's perceived impressions of covid deaths by vaccination status compared to that person's own pro- or anti-vax views. And then to compare those impressions to the actual data (hospitalization and deaths are the data points that won't be affected by some groups not testing or reporting).

Sure! I have been very pro vaccine throughout.  Now, based on what I am seeing,  I don't know. 

[KSera]

49 minutes ago, She Travels said:

In my state, you have been more likely to die if you have been vaccinated pretty much since the vaccines rolled out. The latest data shows 60% of deaths are in the fully vaccinated. Only 54% of population is fully vaccinated in my state. https://ldh.la.gov/Coronavirus/

Louisiana seems to be really hard to get historical data from. The current statistics above are based only the one week period from 5/26-6/1. There was only 1 death in that period, which means nothing can be drawn from that as far as effect of vaccination on deaths. Some vaccinated people die of covid, particularly if they are elderly or have serious risk factors. In my looking, I found other analyses finding about half of the deaths in Louisiana could have been prevented if they had been vaccinated. That's around 5000 of the people who died. I also found various news reports through the pandemic with statistics like: "Eighty percent of people currently hospitalized with COVID-19 are not fully vaccinated, LDH officials say." Which when they make up 47% of the population, indicates they are significantly over-represented in hospitalizations.

4 minutes ago, KeriJ said:

Sure! I have been very pro vaccine throughout.  Now, based on what I am seeing,  I don't know. 

I'm honestly curious why the stark results in the data wouldn't outweigh whatever it seems to you you are seeing. I think it's particularly difficult for people to accurately make evaluations in their heads of the base rates vs what they are seeing and how those match up and what that means. I certainly can't do it in my head even when I can look up the base rate that I am comparing to, much less just based on a general sense when I don't even know exactly what the rate of each is.

[KeriJ]

22 minutes ago, KSera said:

 

I'm honestly curious why the stark results in the data wouldn't outweigh whatever it seems to you you are seeing. I think it's particularly difficult for people to accurately make evaluations in their heads of the base rates vs what they are seeing and how those match up and what that means. I certainly can't do it in my head even when I can look up the base rate that I am comparing to, much less just based on a general sense when I don't even know exactly what the rate of each is.

I don't have a scientific position.  I just know what I am seeing. Vaccination status is having little difference in the people I know. I know fully vaccinated, boosted people with long Covid.  Fully vaccinated people who died. Unvaccinated, diabetic, asthmatic heart patients who had mild cases.......the list goes on. 

However, at the beginning, unvaccinated mil had a bad case while vaccinated fil never caught it. Local married couple: unvaccinated wife died, vaccinated husband had mild symptoms. That list goes on as well.

It's just noticeably different now. 

[maize]

3 hours ago, She Travels said:

In my state, you have been more likely to die if you have been vaccinated pretty much since the vaccines rolled out. The latest data shows 60% of deaths are in the fully vaccinated. Only 54% of population is fully vaccinated in my state. https://ldh.la.gov/Coronavirus/

Looking at population-wide statistics ignores age differences. Every single region I have looked at has the highest vaccination rates among the elderly, and lower vaccination rates among young people. Most of the deaths are in older people, including deaths of people who are vaccinated. If 60% of deaths are in vaccinated people, and most of those deaths are among the elderly population, you might have 60% of deaths being vaccinated people in a cohort that is 90% vaccinated, indicating a significantly higher death rate among unvaccinated than vaccinated. 

You'd have to drill down into the data by age to make any reasonable analysis.

[ktgrok]

3 hours ago, KeriJ said:

I don't have a scientific position.  I just know what I am seeing. Vaccination status is having little difference in the people I know. I know fully vaccinated, boosted people with long Covid.  Fully vaccinated people who died. Unvaccinated, diabetic, asthmatic heart patients who had mild cases.......the list goes on. 

However, at the beginning, unvaccinated mil had a bad case while vaccinated fil never caught it. Local married couple: unvaccinated wife died, vaccinated husband had mild symptoms. That list goes on as well.

It's just noticeably different now. 

I'm thinking that a lot of the people who were most likely to die if infected may have already passed away ;( So that leaves the healthier people getting infected now. 

[whitestavern]

Almost everyone I know now has had Covid, more cases recently vs in the beginning. Vaxxed, unvaxxed, vaxxed and boosted once or twice, they are all getting it. There’s almost no difference in severity. Almost all have been down for a day or two and then quickly improve. I don’t know anyone with long Covid. (I am not denying it can happen just don’t know anyone personally who has it.)

[Katy]

1 hour ago, whitestavern said:

Almost everyone I know now has had Covid, more cases recently vs in the beginning. Vaxxed, unvaxxed, vaxxed and boosted once or twice, they are all getting it. There’s almost no difference in severity. Almost all have been down for a day or two and then quickly improve. I don’t know anyone with long Covid. (I am not denying it can happen just don’t know anyone personally who has it.)

It's more likely you don't know anyone who admits to having it.  I have a friend who was disabled for six months before she admitted her "sudden health challenges"  that she'd been asking for vague prayers for were long covid.  She's a nurse.  She's very much on the scientific side on this, but still feels ashamed to be sick.

[KeriJ]

6 hours ago, ktgrok said:

I'm thinking that a lot of the people who were most likely to die if infected may have already passed away ;( So that leaves the healthier people getting infected now. 

I don't agree. I have very unhealthy, unvaccinated friends who are just now getting it for the first time. And there was no difference in severity compared to the vaccinated friends.

[ktgrok]

14 minutes ago, KeriJ said:

I don't agree. I have very unhealthy, unvaccinated friends who are just now getting it for the first time. And there was no difference in severity compared to the vaccinated friends.

I know someone that smoked all his life and lived to 100. But on a population level, you see different trends. 

The fact is, with so many people already having had covid, the very most vulnerable of those is no longer around to get really sick again. 

[Laura Corin]

Deleted - inappropriate to thread.

Edited June 14, 2022 by Laura Corin

[KeriJ]

8 hours ago, ktgrok said:

I know someone that smoked all his life and lived to 100. But on a population level, you see different trends. 

The fact is, with so many people already having had covid, the very most vulnerable of those is no longer around to get really sick again. 

I gave one example.  I do understand about exceptions. That wasn't my point.  I was just disagreeing that everyone who was going to die has died already. I don't think you can state that as fact.

[ktgrok]

2 hours ago, KeriJ said:

I gave one example.  I do understand about exceptions. That wasn't my point.  I was just disagreeing that everyone who was going to die has died already. I don't think you can state that as fact.

I didn't say (I don't think) everyone. I was saying a lot. 

[wathe]

22 hours ago, maize said:

Looking at population-wide statistics ignores age differences. Every single region I have looked at has the highest vaccination rates among the elderly, and lower vaccination rates among young people. Most of the deaths are in older people, including deaths of people who are vaccinated. If 60% of deaths are in vaccinated people, and most of those deaths are among the elderly population, you might have 60% of deaths being vaccinated people in a cohort that is 90% vaccinated, indicating a significantly higher death rate among unvaccinated than vaccinated. 

You'd have to drill down into the data by age to make any reasonable analysis.

Yes. Simpson's paradox.

[KSera]

2 hours ago, wathe said:

Yes. Simpson's paradox.

Yes! So many statistical errors have been well illustrated during this pandemic 🙄😂😭. Base rate fallacy, survivorship bias, Simpson's paradox. There was an excellent (terrible) example of Simpson's paradox from Leonhardt at the NY times last week. Received wide publicity on med Twitter, but not sure if the NYTimes ever corrected because I unsubscribed from his newsletter due to all his terrible reporting in the past year.

 

[TCB]

On 6/13/2022 at 9:55 AM, Fritz said:

I'm not sure but will try to find out. I do not know of anyone at work that is unvaccinated that has had Covid in 2022. Many of them had Covid prevaccine.

Honestly, everyone I know of that has had it at work in 2022 has been vaccinated. Some of them have had Covid more than once in 2022, even within the last few months.

Not sure if I understand what you’re saying. Are you, as a healthcare worker, saying the vaccines are making people get Covid? If so could you explain the mechanism that makes that possible?

[TCB]

21 hours ago, whitestavern said:

Almost everyone I know now has had Covid, more cases recently vs in the beginning. Vaxxed, unvaxxed, vaxxed and boosted once or twice, they are all getting it. There’s almost no difference in severity. Almost all have been down for a day or two and then quickly improve. I don’t know anyone with long Covid. (I am not denying it can happen just don’t know anyone personally who has it.)

Wow! You’re lucky then!

[ScoutTN]

@Quill  How is your Dd? 

[Fritz]

1 hour ago, TCB said:

Not sure if I understand what you’re saying. Are you, as a healthcare worker, saying the vaccines are making people get Covid? If so could you explain the mechanism that makes that possible?

I am saying it does not appear that the vaccine or boosters are effective against the current variant. I do think it's interesting that my unvaccinated coworkers (as I said some of whom had covid in 2020) seemed to be doing better than the vaccinated with this variant.

I am vaccinated and have not had Covid ever.

[busymama7]

There are a lot of people out there in my circle who are in strong denial that they have long covid.  It is super clear to someone like me but they need to continue to believe in the line they were fed and so they can't admit it even to themselves or me who has been open and vocal about long haul covid in myself.    When I say things directly like "that symptom is common with those who had covid and are long haulers" they hem and haw and sputter and say that either they didn't really have covid (they didn't test) or give some other reason for the symptom. 

[scholastica]

5 minutes ago, busymama7 said:

There are a lot of people out there in my circle who are in strong denial that they have long covid.  It is super clear to someone like me but they need to continue to believe in the line they were fed and so they can't admit it even to themselves or me who has been open and vocal about long haul covid in myself.    When I say things directly like "that symptom is common with those who had covid and are long haulers" they hem and haw and sputter and say that either they didn't really have covid (they didn't test) or give some other reason for the symptom. 

I hope you’re feeling better. I know it’s been a hard road for you.

[Guest]

On 6/13/2022 at 9:10 PM, whitestavern said:

Almost everyone I know now has had Covid, more cases recently vs in the beginning. Vaxxed, unvaxxed, vaxxed and boosted once or twice, they are all getting it. There’s almost no difference in severity. Almost all have been down for a day or two and then quickly improve. I don’t know anyone with long Covid. (I am not denying it can happen just don’t know anyone personally who has it.)

This is pretty similar to my experience except I would not say anyone is “down for a day or two”. Other than Covid + children, everyone I know who has gotten it, whether early on or recently, vaxed, boosted or not, all have at least several days of illness, some severe. 

[Guest]

2 hours ago, ScoutTN said:

@Quill  How is your Dd? 

She is passably better, but not 100%. She feels this round was worst in symptoms than the Christmas time first positive. She still coughs, feels very fatigued and “feels dumb”, like brain fog. I suggested she order a pulse Oximeter so she could keep an eye on her o2 sat 

[ScoutTN]

3 minutes ago, Quill said:

She is passably better, but not 100%. She feels this round was worst in symptoms than the Christmas time first positive. She still coughs, feels very fatigued and “feels dumb”, like brain fog. I suggested she order a pulse Oximeter so she could keep an eye on her o2 sat 

Thanks for the update. Praying for a quick and full recovery! 

[busymama7]

53 minutes ago, scholastica said:

I hope you’re feeling better. I know it’s been a hard road for you.

Thank you. Yes I am doing much better.  The brain fog isn't gone and I still rest/sleep more than I used to to but overall I am on the upswing. It took 18 months with the first 6 being very severe.  

[Guest]

On 6/13/2022 at 12:21 PM, KSera said:

also found various news reports through the pandemic with statistics like: "Eighty percent of people currently hospitalized with COVID-19 are not fully vaccinated, LDH officials say." Which when they make up 47% of the population, indicates they are significantly over-represented in hospitalizations.

Yes. When we had The Horrible Time here, in January of this year, the hospital board director of my local hospital, as well as our Governor (hogan) mentioned these stats numerous times. The hospital in the rural area (I.e., with more anti-vax and anti-mask sentiment than in the cities) was at 97% capacity for COVID patients and 87% of those Covid patients were unvaccinated. The people I personally knew who died were 100% unvaccinated. Additionally, the people I knew who did not die but who suffered horrendously from Covid and survived were also unvaccinated. That’s anecdotal, of course, but it jibes with stats from Hopkins. I have no difficulty trusting data from Hopkins.