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Omicron anecdata?


Not_a_Number

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46 minutes ago, mommyoffive said:

I knew this was coming, but I didn't know what precise form it would take.

The kind of people espousing this are the same people who told me that they were resisting masks so that we could keep our right to homeschool (literally said this). This authoritarian nonsense imposed on us in the name of freedom from authoritarian nonsense has got to stop. 

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Small update about our local nursing home outbreak, if it’s of interest:

44 cases (mostly residents, some staff) since Feb 20, when there were two cases. It spread like wildfire in the first 10 days. It seems to be slowing down a bit, and my mother was able to move into a room with another resident like her — who has been exposed but is still negative. I’m amazed that after 5 days of sharing a room with a positive Covid patient my mom is still negative and feeling fine.

FIL has moved back to his regular room. He says he feels about 10% of where he was prior to Covid. He is very weak. Still on oxygen. I don’t think he’s been out of bed yet. 

 

Edited by Spryte
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Statement on 'Physical interventions to interrupt or reduce the spread of respiratory viruses' review | Cochrane

The original Plain Language Summary for this review stated that 'We are uncertain whether wearing masks or N95/P2 respirators helps to slow the spread of respiratory viruses based on the studies we assessed.' This wording was open to misinterpretation, for which we apologize. While scientific evidence is never immune to misinterpretation, we take responsibility for not making the wording clearer from the outset. 

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2 hours ago, mommyoffive said:

Statement on 'Physical interventions to interrupt or reduce the spread of respiratory viruses' review | Cochrane

The original Plain Language Summary for this review stated that 'We are uncertain whether wearing masks or N95/P2 respirators helps to slow the spread of respiratory viruses based on the studies we assessed.' This wording was open to misinterpretation, for which we apologize. While scientific evidence is never immune to misinterpretation, we take responsibility for not making the wording clearer from the outset. 

🙄 There’s no way to roll back the damage their review did. Their very poor wording and study selection (combining things that shouldn’t have been combined) then reported through the media amplified the problem and made a mess. 

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26 minutes ago, mommyoffive said:

Anyone realize it has been 3 full years since Covid changed our lives?  I know our life shut down March 13, 2020 although it was changing before that with the headlines and stocking up on things.  

This brought me to tears.

3 years and counting - by Dr. Emily Smith (substack.com)

That was a really good read. 

I can't believe that 81% of Americans have had at least one shot from people's attitudes here. Wow. 

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https://usafacts.org/visualizations/covid-vaccine-tracker-states/state/ohio

We're bringing the average down, lol! 

Quote

In Ohio, 7,688,088 people or 66% of the state has received at least one dose.

Overall, 7,070,783 people or 60% of Ohio's population are considered fully vaccinated.

Additionally, people or <1% of Ohio's population have recieved a booster dose.

I bet my corner of Ohio is also less vaccinated than some parts of the state.

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9 minutes ago, kbutton said:

https://usafacts.org/visualizations/covid-vaccine-tracker-states/state/ohio

We're bringing the average down, lol! 

I bet my corner of Ohio is also less vaccinated than some parts of the state.

Whoa! Less than 1% of people in Ohio have had a booster?! Is that just for the bivalent?

eta: looking at the site, it seems like there's a glitch with reporting of the booster dose. The graph shows a lot more than 1%. (Not that I'm arguing Ohio's numbers are good ;))

 

Edited by KSera
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I've been thinking a lot about the three year 'anniversary' lately, as well. The actual border closing and shutting of schools was a relief when it happened, as I'd been waiting for action since January (and due to this board already had the hand sanitiser and toilet paper!) Just remembering we were told not to wear masks, that the main thing was washing hands. And just not having any idea how serious it was going to get. I'd already pulled the kids out of school (part of the reason schools went online/remote is that a third of children had been pulled out by their parents already). And the thought of not having to go to any extra-curricular activities was just sheer relief.

I read recently that after the first lockdown in Australia (March to June I believe), most people were doing really well. People struggled with the subsequent ones, especially in Victoria as they went on and on. But man they saved so many lives. We had fewer than expected deaths in 2020 and 2021, whereas we had 20,000 excess deaths in 2022 and I think we're on track for the same this year. I don't know anyone who has died of acute Covid; I sadly know a number of people who have died suddenly and unexpectedly of stroke or heart attacks, the long tail of Covid that we're beginning to see. 

It's so much harder now than then. I get harassed for mask wearing. I feel so sad and dispirited at the anti-vax/ Covid isn't real type comments on the local FB group, whereas 3 years we were all helping one another. People will tell me that they've just been diagnosed with covid "listen to my cough!" because 'they don't have to isolate anymore'. People have literally forgotten how bad it was 3 years ago - the overflowing morgues, the terrible stories of New York and Italy and people dying on the streets in China. It's like the Spanish flu - we don't want to remember, and we will forget, and it will happen all over again.

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I am dismayed by the shift as well. I stayed home when I was exposed by one of two people I do not mask around. Turns out one of the events I missed by being the responsible adult had someone who was positive and everyone there caught covid. I am one of the youngest people who would have attended, many are old enough to be my parents. No masks. No staying home. Nothing. 

The person who exposed me was very sick and is still coughing weeks later. They still will not wear a mask out and about, instead wear a mask in the house common areas because I insisted they mask. I had meant that they should mask when not at home to prevent catching it, but whatever works. At work there is a person who has developed an absolutely horrible cough in the last few days, they are not masking and still coming in. WHY?! An even older lady (80's) comes in without a mask and knows the other is coughing and sick and not masking. None of the above are under 55. 

Several other people I see regularly at work are nursing and other medical students or in the medical field. Some have significant health issues. Only one wears a mask. 1. I would think the medical students and professionals  would be wearing a mask. 

My husband had a colonoscopy during the time from exposure until he would be in the clear. He called. They did not care and told him to come in anyway. Didn't even ask him to take a rapid test the night before or the day of.

 

It is like we learned nothing. I just want to scream.

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I want to thank everyone for the information and advice they gave me and give an update on my dd. 
She is doing quite well and I’m so thankful. She was off sick from classes for 2 weeks and was feeling really rough, compounded by the perforated ear drum. She felt she had to return to classes and getting caught up the 3rd week despite still feeling exhausted, coughing, and having brain fog. I was worried that she wouldn’t be able to rest enough and that would make things worse. She made it through that week and on about day 21 she really started to feel better. She managed to get caught up with class work, and, although I don’t think she would say she is 100% back to normal, she’s pretty close.

My dh and I were scheduled to visit his elderly parents in the middle of the whole thing. I would have, of course, gone up to her if absolutely necessary, but stayed away so we didn’t risk taking anything to the grandparents. My dd was very concerned about getting us sick too. But as soon as we got back I went to her. It was day 11 for her and she was still testing positive. I wore a KN95 mask, had the patio door open all day, ate outside only, and took my CR box with me and ran it all the time. It is a small 1 bedroom apartment but I had the CR box running between her room and where I was sleeping on the living room floor and I did not get sick. I even had a PCR test 5 days later and was negative. 
Dd is the first one in our immediate family to get Covid. 

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36 minutes ago, TCB said:

She made it through that week and on about day 21 she really started to feel better. She managed to get caught up with class work, and, although I don’t think she would say she is 100% back to normal, she’s pretty close.

What a rough go of things! I am glad she's doing much better!!! 

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People's CDC COVID-19 Weather Report - People's CDC (substack.com)

 

The Weather: A significant 72.02% of the population continues to live in areas with substantial or higher transmission. While this is a meaningful drop from last week, this is still as much as 3 in 4 people in the United States. Data processing delays this week also make case results from Florida, Utah, and Washington appear lower than they truly are.

image.png.93b6bf2a553c970acaf8e38cc8e739bc.png

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Three of my adult kids (all living in different states) have been sick in the past few weeks.  One tested negative but only tested once with an old at-home test and the other two didn't test at all.  All three had different symptoms.  I don't know if they had covid or not.  ETA - fortunately, none were very sick.

 

 

Edited by Kassia
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Went to the Dr yday about asthma meds and heard it all:

a) children don't get sick from covid or get long covid;

b) everyone's going to get it anyway (was she masked? no she wasn't)

c) the vaccine schedule of Australia is perfect as is (one of the few countries that refuse to vaccinate under 5 and haven't provided a booster for kids - mine haven't been done since March 2022)

d) if you were going to see any long term issues from covid (such as heart), you'd know within the first 3 weeks - there are no long term issues that crop up after that.

Yes, looks like I'm going to have to find a new doctor. 

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DS saw his allergist/immunologist today and got the scoop on what she thinks re: Covid, for him. Her family avoided it until Christmas, and she said it was not a huge deal for any of them, which was nice. She suggested that if/when DS catches it we keep her in the loop and they will wait and see if he needs Paxlovid instead of jumping to it immediately. She said we have 3 - 5 days to get it started. She said their practice only lost one elderly, immune compromised patient in 2020, and the only ones who have been hospitalized were not vaccinated. Overall, she was very reassuring, and even with his issues she’s optimistic that he will bounce back quickly. Whew. 

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On 3/14/2023 at 1:38 PM, mommyoffive said:

People's CDC COVID-19 Weather Report - People's CDC (substack.com)

 

The Weather: A significant 72.02% of the population continues to live in areas with substantial or higher transmission. While this is a meaningful drop from last week, this is still as much as 3 in 4 people in the United States. Data processing delays this week also make case results from Florida, Utah, and Washington appear lower than they truly are.

image.png.93b6bf2a553c970acaf8e38cc8e739bc.png

I have a (possibly stupid) question. How does anyone actually know how many people where have it? Almost no one gets a lab test. Almost no one reports to any medical or gov’t authority if they test positive on a rapid test. No telling if the rapid tests are even correct. The only people there can be actual data for are those who seek medical help, those with severe cases, complications from pre-existing conditions, and long covid. 

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1 hour ago, ScoutTN said:

I have a (possibly stupid) question. How does anyone actually know how many people where have it? Almost no one gets a lab test. Almost no one reports to any medical or gov’t authority if they test positive on a rapid test. No telling if the rapid tests are even correct. The only people there can be actual data for are those who seek medical help, those with severe cases, complications from pre-existing conditions, and long covid. 

Yeah, the only rubric I trust on this at this point is wastewater data.  May they continue to report it, at least in the areas that have it.  Outside of that, I think it's pure guesswork or retrospective based on hospitalizations.

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1 hour ago, ScoutTN said:

I have a (possibly stu)pid) question. How does anyone actually know how many people where have it? Almost no one gets a lab test. Almost no one reports to any medical or gov’t authority if they test positive on a rapid test. No telling if the rapid tests are even correct. The only people there can be actual data for are those who seek medical help, those with severe cases, complications from pre-existing conditions, and long covid. 

1) Wastewater surveillance

2) Hospitalizations.  Covid related admissions are obvious indicators of community spread, but here we also still covid test every admission, no matter what the reason for the admission - including labour and delivery, elective joint replacement surgery etc.  Hospital data in these patients reflect community trends.

3) Nursing homes and other congregate living are still testing liberally.  Rates in institutions also reflect community trends.

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Another Paxlovid study:

Effectiveness of nirmatrelvir–ritonavir in preventing hospital admissions and deaths in people with COVID-19: a cohort study in a large US health-care system

It's another large observational outpatient study, but this time using Kaiser Permanente data.  They matched cases by date, age, sex, clinical status (care received, symptoms at testing, time from symptoms to testing), vaccination history, comorbidities, heath care during the previous year and BMI.

It showed a significant reduction in hospitalization or death within 30 days for those receiving Paxlovid, but that was a rare event anyway in both the treated and untreated groups, because this is a highly vaccinated population. Still, this study probably swings me back in the direction where I would encourage my elderly parents to start Paxlovid asap if they test positive.

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https://www.nih.gov/news-events/news-releases/sars-cov-2-infection-weakens-immune-cell-response-vaccination?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
 

I wonder if this effect is limited to covid vaccines or applies more generally.

“The magnitude and quality of a key immune cell’s response to vaccination with two doses of the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine were considerably lower in people with prior SARS-CoV-2 infection compared to people without prior infection, a study has found. In addition, the level of this key immune cell that targets the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein was substantially lower in unvaccinated people with COVID-19 than in vaccinated people who had never been infected. Importantly, people who recover from SARS-CoV-2 infection and then get vaccinated are more protected than people who are unvaccinated. These findings, which suggest that the virus damages an important immune-cell response, were published today in the journal Immunity.”

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2 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

https://www.nih.gov/news-events/news-releases/sars-cov-2-infection-weakens-immune-cell-response-vaccination?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
 

I wonder if this effect is limited to covid vaccines or applies more generally.

“The magnitude and quality of a key immune cell’s response to vaccination with two doses of the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine were considerably lower in people with prior SARS-CoV-2 infection compared to people without prior infection, a study has found. In addition, the level of this key immune cell that targets the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein was substantially lower in unvaccinated people with COVID-19 than in vaccinated people who had never been infected. Importantly, people who recover from SARS-CoV-2 infection and then get vaccinated are more protected than people who are unvaccinated. These findings, which suggest that the virus damages an important immune-cell response, were published today in the journal Immunity.”

I think it's more a function of covid than a function of the vaccine. To me it reads as if covid suppresses the immune system, and that's what causes the lowered response to vaccines, just like measles causes lower immune response for a couple of years afterwards. I know there has been speculation that covid did that, too; I'll be interested to see if that plays out, and if so, how long it lasts. And I wonder if being vaxxed before getting covid reduces that effect, either in severity or duration.

Edited by Corraleno
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1 hour ago, Corraleno said:

I think it's more a function of covid than a function of the vaccine. To me it reads as if covid suppresses the immune system, and that's what causes the lowered response to vaccines, just like measles causes lower immune response for a couple of years afterwards. I know there has been speculation that covid did that, too; I'll be interested to see if that plays out, and if so, how long it lasts. And I wonder if being vaxxed before getting covid reduces that effect, either in severity or duration.

Yep. That is what I thought but didn’t want to jump to conclusions. Hoping all the other vaccines still work post covid though. 

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