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Omicron anecdata?


Not_a_Number

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We seem to have a different variant in SA with slightly higher hospitalisations than elsewhere in Australia. There’s a tonne of people sick with non-covid stuff as well. Our precautions haven’t been 100pc as one of my kids is sick (although he may have got it from DH who hasn’t masked in a year and was sick before him). All negative on rat so just a cold or flu. Also hearing of a number of RSV cases 

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10 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

We seem to have a different variant in SA with slightly higher hospitalisations than elsewhere in Australia. There’s a tonne of people sick with non-covid stuff as well. Our precautions haven’t been 100pc as one of my kids is sick (although he may have got it from DH who hasn’t masked in a year and was sick before him). All negative on rat so just a cold or flu. Also hearing of a number of RSV cases 

Yes I saw something about that variant, a combination of delta and ba2, the dreaded 'deltacron'.

Hope you guys are ok. It's hard to know whether RATS are still working effectively, apparently there have been no new guidelines or anything around the new variants. I know there's something going around the local school as a number of people have come in sick (often coughing right at me) but they're all 'it's not covid'. Generally because they've tested once. But yeah there's a lot of other stuff going around, did you hear there are 100X the flu cases at the moment compared with this time last year? I think we will get the flu vax this year as early as possible. 

 

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15 minutes ago, bookbard said:

I know there's something going around the local school as a number of people have come in sick (often coughing right at me) but they're all 'it's not covid'.

Yeah, I’m wondering what this one might be. The cough sounds horrible and lasts for weeks. 

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WHO update on boosters for all, during pregnancy, and primary series for kids. Here's what they got right and wrong. (substack.com)

Can someone way smarter than me explain what this part means?

we also found that for infection, booster protection waned quickly, and that after 6 months, there were increased odds of reinfection, especially among immune-intact people, a phenomenon called “negative imprinting.”

Edited by mommyoffive
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14 hours ago, mommyoffive said:

Can someone way smarter than me explain what this part means?

 

Maybe they meant immune imprinting? I'd never heard it called "negative imprinting" though. This article talks about immune imprinting:

“If you got infected with Omicron at any time, a third vaccine dose actually doubles your risk of reinfection compared to 2 doses only,” Dr. Daniele Focosi, who specializes in hematology and works at Pisa University Hospital in Italy, wrote on Twitter in response to the findings. “Amazing immune imprinting at work.” The study points to immune imprinting as the reason why “three-dose vaccination was associated with reduced protection compared to that of two-dose vaccination.”

But what exactly is immune imprinting?

Read more at: https://www.miamiherald.com/news/coronavirus/article268224827.html#storylink=cpy

Edited by Malory
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1 hour ago, Malory said:

Maybe they meant immune imprinting? I'd never heard it called "negative imprinting" though. This article talks about immune imprinting:

“If you got infected with Omicron at any time, a third vaccine dose actually doubles your risk of reinfection compared to 2 doses only,” Dr. Daniele Focosi, who specializes in hematology and works at Pisa University Hospital in Italy, wrote on Twitter in response to the findings. “Amazing immune imprinting at work.” The study points to immune imprinting as the reason why “three-dose vaccination was associated with reduced protection compared to that of two-dose vaccination.”

But what exactly is immune imprinting?

Read more at: https://www.miamiherald.com/news/coronavirus/article268224827.html#storylink=cpy

Oh great, so we shouldn't have gotten the bivalent booster???

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1 hour ago, Malory said:

Maybe they meant immune imprinting? I'd never heard it called "negative imprinting" though. This article talks about immune imprinting:

“If you got infected with Omicron at any time, a third vaccine dose actually doubles your risk of reinfection compared to 2 doses only,” Dr. Daniele Focosi, who specializes in hematology and works at Pisa University Hospital in Italy, wrote on Twitter in response to the findings. “Amazing immune imprinting at work.” The study points to immune imprinting as the reason why “three-dose vaccination was associated with reduced protection compared to that of two-dose vaccination.”

But what exactly is immune imprinting?

Read more at: https://www.miamiherald.com/news/coronavirus/article268224827.html#storylink=cpy

Do you have a link to the actual study?  This sounds off to me.

I cannot access the Miami Herald article.

 

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3 hours ago, wathe said:

Do you have a link to the actual study?  This sounds off to me.

I cannot access the Miami Herald article.

 

I believe this is the original study that the articles are referencing: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.10.31.22281756v2

Two factors worth noting, which do not seem to be mentioned in any of the the news articles I've seen: (1) this study only involved people who received 2 or 3 shots of the original vaccines, NOT omicron-specific boosters, and (2) they only saw this effect after BA4/5 took over, not when BA1/2 predominated. The US opted for an updated booster based on BA4/5, and this study did not look at any scenario involving people's susceptibility to reinfection with the BA4/5 variant after receiving a BA4/5 booster.

ETA: Also, none of the reinfections resulted in  severe disease or death, regardless of the number of shots.

Edited by Corraleno
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7 hours ago, Corraleno said:

I believe this is the original study that the articles are referencing: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.10.31.22281756v2

Two factors worth noting, which do not seem to be mentioned in any of the the news articles I've seen: (1) this study only involved people who received 2 or 3 shots of the original vaccines, NOT omicron-specific boosters, and (2) they only saw this effect after BA4/5 took over, not when BA1/2 predominated. The US opted for an updated booster based on BA4/5, and this study did not look at any scenario involving people's susceptibility to reinfection with the BA4/5 variant after receiving a BA4/5 booster.

ETA: Also, none of the reinfections resulted in  severe disease or death, regardless of the number of shots.

Thank you Corraleno.  I've given it a cursory read.

I wouldn't be too worried @TexasProud.  This isn't a very strong study.

We haven't seen this effect anywhere else in the world (that I'm aware of)

It's a retrospective medical-records data-mining study.

Endpoint was re-infection only.  A more important outcome would have been infection severity: hospitalization/death.

There are lots of reasons why their 3-dose  cohort might have more documented infections that 2-dose cohort, that have nothing to do with immune imprinting:  3-dose might have tested more often ("Differences in testing rate during follow-up may introduce differential ascertainment of infection across the cohorts if routine testing varied by cohort. There was evidence for differences in the testing rate across the cohorts. These differences could result in different rates of undocumented infection before and during follow-up", which authors attempted to address with math, italics mine), cohorts might have had different exposure risk, different co-mobidity profiles (authors counted number of comorbidities, but not which ones - and which ones matters),  different occupations (maybe 3-dose cohort were more likely to be in high risk occupations  - we can't know), the list is endless.

The study population was very unlike the US (or Canadian population).  The vast majority of study subjects were under age 50, and healthy.  Results not necessarily  generalizable to our population.

Also, interestingly, they compared 3-dose cohort with unvaccinated.  Those results were buried in the supplementary materials.  There was no difference.  That does not match real world experience.  When results make no sense, it causes me to question the whole study.

At the very least, these results need to be replicated before they can be trusted.

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On 3/24/2023 at 6:10 PM, KSera said:

Yeah, I’m wondering what this one might be. The cough sounds horrible and lasts for weeks. 

We had this and it really wasn't covid.  Dh and I had it and coughed for weeks.  Then later got covid. My kids had covid,  then recovered, then much later got the nasty coughing virus. Covid positive and negative tests were consistent. 

The cough was brutal and lasted for 2 months for one dd. Doctors didn't have any answer or any help.  Others in our area had the same story. 

I kept wondering if it was some type of whooping cough variant.

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8 hours ago, KeriJ said:

The cough was brutal and lasted for 2 months for one dd. Doctors didn't have any answer or any help.  Others in our area had the same story. 

 

Might have been an adenovirus. I had something similar in Feb 2020 (before Covid really hit Australia) and I was coughing for months. I haven't had anything much since then (except Covid, which was more an acute 2 days) because of lockdowns and masking, and I would be happy never to get anything like that again. 

Anyone noted that WHO is suggesting no more vaccines unless you're high risk? I thought there was evidence now that vaccination decrease Long Covid, which can affect anyone. 

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2 hours ago, bookbard said:

Might have been an adenovirus. I had something similar in Feb 2020 (before Covid really hit Australia) and I was coughing for months. I haven't had anything much since then (except Covid, which was more an acute 2 days) because of lockdowns and masking, and I would be happy never to get anything like that again. 

Anyone noted that WHO is suggesting no more vaccines unless you're high risk? I thought there was evidence now that vaccination decrease Long Covid, which can affect anyone. 

Yeah, I cannot understand WHO's stance in light of the evidence Katelyn Jetelina showed in one of her recent newsletters. 

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2 minutes ago, Harriet Vane said:

Yeah, I cannot understand WHO's stance in light of the evidence Katelyn Jetelina showed in one of her recent newsletters. 

I think it may have to do with the way the WHO has to make decisions, which has to do with considering what recommendation is appropriate for all the countries they are advising, not just high resource countries. 
 

I thought Jeremy Faust’s piece on this was good: https://www.medpagetoday.com/opinion/faustfiles/103792

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12 hours ago, KeriJ said:

We had this and it really wasn't covid.  Dh and I had it and coughed for weeks.  Then later got covid. My kids had covid,  then recovered, then much later got the nasty coughing virus. Covid positive and negative tests were consistent. 

The cough was brutal and lasted for 2 months for one dd. Doctors didn't have any answer or any help.  Others in our area had the same story. 

I kept wondering if it was some type of whooping cough variant.

Parapertussis make the rounds occasionally. It’s rare they actually stop and do the testing to pin down an outbreak, but parapertussis is very much like a sibling to whooping cough.

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On 3/31/2023 at 7:42 PM, prairiewindmomma said:

Parapertussis make the rounds occasionally. It’s rare they actually stop and do the testing to pin down an outbreak, but parapertussis is very much like a sibling to whooping cough.

And good old fashoned "walking pneumonia", the mycoplasma pneumonia. 

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24 minutes ago, mommyoffive said:

"The U.S. should absolutely start warning those at greatest risk, make sure hospitals are prepared, and reinstate mask use in all healthcare settings, public transportation, and schools. If we took the proactive steps to increase filtration and ventilation to a level that maintained CO2 at 600 ppm with HEPA level filtration, then we could be more at ease, but since that hasn’t happened, this variant will move through schools and homes quickly, creating a situation where hundreds of thousands of people could end up with long-term health issues, unpaid sick days, children will lose much needed time from school, and all of this hurts the economy now and in the future. Taking proactive steps like India is doing is the right move." 

Will we actually take any of those proactive steps? Of course not. And then half the population will just blame a new spike in illnesses and deaths on the vaccine instead of the virus.

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12 minutes ago, mommyoffive said:

I am so happy about this!! When I think about "what needs to change for life to be more like it was in the before times" I have hoped for another Operation Warp Speed type program, but I didn't think we would get one. While some of the mucosal vaccines have not panned out, some seem promising and could totally change the covid risk.

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43 minutes ago, KSera said:

I am so happy about this!! When I think about "what needs to change for life to be more like it was in the before times" I have hoped for another Operation Warp Speed type program, but I didn't think we would get one. While some of the mucosal vaccines have not panned out, some seem promising and could totally change the covid risk.

Yes! I've been really un-thrilled about the "everyone just gets covid every year or two; lots of them die, but mostly only old and/or otherwise vulnerable people, so whatever. Also long covid? yeah, we really have no idea--sucks for those people; hope it doesn't get too expensive!" plan that we seem to have been operating with. Also, it's not really catchy for marketing. 

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People's CDC COVID-19 Weather Report - People's CDC (substack.com)

 

The Weather: About 45% of all counties in the country are experiencing substantial or higher transmission levels based on the available data. Notably, Iowa no longer reports COVID data to the CDC as of April 1, 2023.

 

image.thumb.png.3702ba0f57133156d6ea9168df3059fb.png

 

 

Variants: This week, Kraken (XBB.1.5) makes up 88.3% of cases, which is a slight increase from last week’s Weather Report. Hyperion (XBB.1.9.1) continues to grow in proportion, now at 5.1% of cases.

Wastewater Monitoring: Wastewater levels show a recent leveling off to slight downward trend, regionally and nationally. Nationwide average copies per milliliter remain at least twice as high as lower values seen in March 2022 and about 7 times as high as the levels seen in May 2021.

 

Hospital-Acquired COVID Cases: These hospitalizations don’t reflect the growing number of people who are getting COVID from going to hospitals as we remove protections. As a stark reminder, back in January 2022 during the height of Omicron, a record-breaking 3,000+ patients were getting COVID in the hospitals each week. Even now in 2023, over 138,000 COVID infections have occurred in hospitals already over three months, matching closely with how many we had back in 2021 up to this point. Note that these are all undercounts, as people are not tested after the end of their hospital visit.
COVID is even more transmissible now than ever, so clearly the dropping of basic protections such as universal masking in healthcare settings will result in increased COVID transmission in hospitals yet again – and more deaths and illness, something unacceptable in a society where we have the tools to fight this and claim to be a land of the free – it is hard for people to be free if they are sick or dead, after all.
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So I was looking at the latest data in Australia, our 'dip' in the wave is actually higher than the 'height' of the first wave . . . and the waves are getting closer together. I wonder if it'll get closer and closer until it's just this constant 'ripple' of covid, at a quite high community level. 

I'm sure there'll be a jump in cases over Easter. I know quite a few people who got sick over Easter, mostly gastro type stuff, so far. 

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1 hour ago, kokotg said:

Yes! I've been really un-thrilled about the "everyone just gets covid every year or two; lots of them die, but mostly only old and/or otherwise vulnerable people, so whatever. Also long covid? yeah, we really have no idea--sucks for those people; hope it doesn't get too expensive!" plan that we seem to have been operating with. Also, it's not really catchy for marketing. <---Yes, this is exactly what I have thought everything amounted to.  I truly hope for better treatments.  

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7 hours ago, kokotg said:

Yes! I've been really un-thrilled about the "everyone just gets covid every year or two; lots of them die, but mostly only old and/or otherwise vulnerable people, so whatever. Also long covid? yeah, we really have no idea--sucks for those people; hope it doesn't get too expensive!" plan that we seem to have been operating with. Also, it's not really catchy for marketing. 

I’ve been “unthrilled” with the same attitude towards influenza (long before COVID) which has been going on for decades. I think flu is just as devastating. My hope has been that the same urgency over long COVID/COVID deaths would disrupt the complacency we have over flu. Don’t really want to go back to the “before times” when no one gave a crap about flu deaths or permanent long term consequences it can also cause.

Edited by popmom
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My niece just had Covid, after two years? three? of masking at school and avoiding it. They were quite sick - high fever, chills, extremely sore throat, vomiting. Over the worst in 4 days. My sibling now has Covid, and is feeling generally unwell. Sibling is vaxed and boosted but no bivalent.

I just had my bivalent. It makes no sense to me that it would increase my risk of infection, so I'm just ignoring that study upthread.

Dd2 has recovered from her second bout, as far as I can tell. She did not get the shortness of breath this time and is back at the gym. She's worryingly blase, as are all my kids. I don't really point out the possible risks to even mild infection.

I have no idea how I've dodged it so far. I haven't masked since Christmas. I am thinking I might go back to masking at work over the winter term. Seeing niece so ill reminds me that I've been taking quite the risk.

 

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10 hours ago, bookbard said:

So I was looking at the latest data in Australia, our 'dip' in the wave is actually higher than the 'height' of the first wave . . . and the waves are getting closer together. I wonder if it'll get closer and closer until it's just this constant 'ripple' of covid, at a quite high community level. 

I'm sure there'll be a jump in cases over Easter. I know quite a few people who got sick over Easter, mostly gastro type stuff, so far. 

This is what epis are predicting, yes. Don’t look at the peaks, look at the troughs.

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