Omicron anecdata?

[mommyoffive]

Not covid related, but thought I would drop this here

Who is eligible for the shingles vaccine? (substack.com)

[mommyoffive]

Data snapshot: The Thanksgiving RSV bump looks real. What can we do about the next holiday? (substack.com)

[bookbard]

On 12/16/2023 at 10:40 AM, Ausmumof3 said:

My dd is sick. We masked at church but she chatted with some people outside one of whom was sick. She’s negative for Covid but will retest as she seems fairly unwell. This is the second time we’ve had someone sick when they’ve been masked indoors but exposed to someone ill at closer range outdoors. 

How is your daughter going?

I know so many people with covid now. Thankfully we have finished all our pre-xmas parties and we're going away so no more gatherings. Had a family thing yday and no one wanted to eat outside, the weather was fine, too. Crazy. 

[Hilltopmom]

Well, the kids have covid the week before Xmas AGAIN. 
 

also- a few of my own students and my daughter’s teacher.. and a bunch of staff in my school 

Edited December 19, 2023 by Hilltopmom

[kbutton]

3 hours ago, mommyoffive said:

Long Covid Weekly #74: PEM cause discovered? Developmental issues caused by Covid (substack.com)

I skimmed but can’t figure out what PEM is.

 

[Ausmumof3]

35 minutes ago, bookbard said:

How is your daughter going?

I know so many people with covid now. Thankfully we have finished all our pre-xmas parties and we're going away so no more gatherings. Had a family thing yday and no one wanted to eat outside, the weather was fine, too. Crazy. 

I need to get some more RATs! She has a nasty cough and yesterday was saying she couldn’t smell stuff. Think she’s on the mend though as she sounds a bit happier.

[Pawz4me]

4 minutes ago, kbutton said:

I skimmed but can’t figure out what PEM is.

 

I haven't opened the link, but usually PEM means post exertional malaise.

[kbutton]

1 hour ago, Pawz4me said:

I haven't opened the link, but usually PEM means post exertional malaise.

Thank you!!! I saw a discussion in the list but I think those words didn’t get strung together all at once.

[KSera]

3 hours ago, kbutton said:

I skimmed but can’t figure out what PEM is.

 

 

3 hours ago, Pawz4me said:

I haven't opened the link, but usually PEM means post exertional malaise.

Yes. A high percentage of those with long Covid get ME/CFS as part of it, which has PEM as a defining symptom (PEM is when overexertion (which could be as minor as sitting up for too long, depending on the person) causes a crash or worsening of symptoms afterward, lasting from days to weeks). 

[kbutton]

22 minutes ago, KSera said:

 

Yes. A high percentage of those with long Covid get ME/CFS as part of it, which has PEM as a defining symptom (PEM is when overexertion (which could be as minor as sitting up for too long, depending on the person) causes a crash or worsening of symptoms afterward, lasting from days to weeks). 

I’ve heard it many times but hadn’t retained the abbreviation.

DH had a coworker (young) who got long working in the ER before testing was available and before we shut down. At nine months out, she couldn’t even do activities of daily living. He found out she was working again maybe last year (new jobs for both of them), but they are not in contact to know her long-term progress. 

[KSera]

49 minutes ago, kbutton said:

He found out she was working again maybe last year

That’s encouraging. It would be so helpful for people to be able to know what their prognosis even is. It seems to be all over the board and the not knowing how bad and for how long is rough for people. 

[KSera]

I don’t know if anyone else clicked through to this, but here’s a gift link to a very well done guest essay in the New York Times on Long Covid that came out today. 1,374 DAYS MY LIFE WITH LONG COVID

[mommyoffive]

People’s CDC December 18 COVID-19 Weather Report (substack.com)

[mommyoffive]

NOW is a good time to dial up your strategic masking. (substack.com)

[mommyoffive]

State of Affairs: Dec 19, 2023 - by Katelyn Jetelina (substack.com)

[Lecka]

We had a noticeably lower attendance at church on Sunday, and I am hearing that numerous people probably contracted Covid the weekend of the 10th, and tested positive late last week.  So far we haven’t heard of anyone being seriously ill, but some people do feel awful.  
 

Some people also decided to stay home and watch the service on Zoom since they had heard about other testing positive, so I don’t think all of the lowered attendance is because of Covid.  

[kbutton]

12 minutes ago, Lecka said:

We had a noticeably lower attendance at church on Sunday, and I am hearing that numerous people probably contracted Covid the weekend of the 10th, and tested positive late last week.  So far we haven’t heard of anyone being seriously ill, but some people do feel awful.  
 

Some people also decided to stay home and watch the service on Zoom since they had heard about other testing positive, so I don’t think all of the lowered attendance is because of Covid.  

I hope they are all feeling better by Christmas and that you don’t catch it!

[mommyoffive]

Neighbor Tuesday: Holidays and a COVID/respiratory update (substack.com)

[Froste]

I've been dealing with numerous complications after recovering from COVID-19. Among these challenges, I've also experienced ED. It's an unexpected twist, but fortunately, eroxon gel has been a helpful option in dealing with this aspect. Navigating the aftermath of COVID-19 can be complex, and discovering solutions that address various complications is crucial. If anyone else is facing similar issues, don't hesitate to explore options like eroxon and consult with healthcare professionals for personalized guidance.

Edited December 26, 2023 by Froste

[KSera]

17 hours ago, Froste said:

I've been dealing with numerous complications after recovering from COVID-19.

I’m sorry to hear that. How long ago was your infection? 

[Amoret]

A couple of new Covid-related Substacks, for anyone who is still interested:

Monkeys on Typewriters (Talking about how the coronavirus evolves and what it means for us. In this blog we'll discuss how viral evolution works, why people keep getting it wrong, what to expect next from the pandemic and how to stay ahead of the virus. )

Down the Memory Hole (A blog covering the techniques used to manipulate the public into ignoring the health threat posed by an ongoing pandemic.)

[kbutton]

Shared on a FB group I follow…

I profusely thanked my parents for once again masking everywhere for ten days before seeing us. We’re mask free in our home for the holidays (except when we head to stores and church) with family and not sick. I am so sad for people missing significant events because people they love won’t do this.

We will be heading to another event with food, but everyone masks with us for the day, and we will eat in separate rooms.

I’m so grateful. I think we will mask before important events forever if we can ever stop masking. 

[KSera]

3 hours ago, kbutton said:

I profusely thanked my parents for once again masking everywhere for ten days before seeing us. We’re mask free in our home for the holidays (except when we head to stores and church) with family and not sick. I am so sad for people missing significant events because people they love won’t do this.

This is so wonderful that they will do this and allow the whole family to have better holidays as a result. We have been unsuccessful getting anyone on board with us in our extended family, and thus keep missing holidays with everyone. The last couple some of the people have always ended up sick and we’ve been thankful that we have stuck to our boundaries and not given in. I lament that while we’re seen as the ones who are making the choice not to go, that there’s an alternate choice available where everyone agreed to take precautions for 10 days prior and we could all just be together and enjoy the time, but apparently no one else is willing to do that. Yet somehow we’re the ones at fault 🤷‍♀️. 

[SHP]

Christmas was canceled due to people having covid. They claim to not know where or how they caught it. IMNSHO if they have no idea then they are behaving recklessly. 

We know how it is spread.

We know what steps to take to mitigate risks.

Rather hard to have compassion for all the inconsiderate jerks out there. 

 

[KSera]

1 hour ago, SHP said:

Christmas was canceled due to people having covid. They claim to not know where or how they caught it. IMNSHO if they have no idea then they are behaving recklessly. 

I’m sorry. I hope the rest of you stay healthy. 

[kbutton]

My kid’s high school is having a pancake breakfast on January 5th that is for the whole family. What could possibly go wrong with this?!? At least it’s first thing in the AM, so we can probably just take him late and get an unexcused partial absence. He’s willing to try to eat outside at lunch the week after.

[Acadie]

School starts back up Jan 2 for dd17 and I expect it will be an absolute viral shitshow. 

[Faith-manor]

1 hour ago, Acadie said:

School starts back up Jan 2 for dd17 and I expect it will be an absolute viral shitshow. 

Yup. Both dss that do not work remote are back to wearing masks at work today. One works very much alone for most of the day at the museum so he can take breaks from his mask, and the other does a lot of walking between buildings, and is rarely in the presence of a co-worker during those walks, so he also can remove his mask. They both are going to start eating in their cars at lunch which isn't necessarily enjoyable in Michigan winter, but they really don't want to be constantly catching covid, and neither one has any confidence in the latest round of vaccines though they still went and got them anyway. Dd is hunkering down for two months, grocery pick up, and play dates in the park or at the botanical gardens, no indoor socializing until March. She really wants a break during this season, and not just from covid but all the kid bugs going around. Mother in law isn't going anywhere except one outing to a quilt store with mask, and then nothing else for quite a while. She is slowing down so much.

I am nervous about a family wedding at the end of March, but also worried about family relationships if we skip. This one will be really sticky to get out of. Mark thinks the church is huge, but not the invitee list so he thinks we wait until five minutes before the ceremony starts, zip in and sit in the back several pews behind the group, get out right away, and then since there is an outdoor dining and bar area at the reception, stay outside. We will see. His brother has had covid three times!

[Ausmumof3]

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-12-27/long-covid-mecfs-health-damaging-relationships-crisis/103205564
 

very good article today on the long term impacts of long COVID 

[bookbard]

I wish people would go back to using RAT tests before gatherings. My nephew tested the evening after our pre-xmas gathering and was positive. This is a week ago and none of us caught it, thankfully - my elderly parents haven't had covid yet.

I did look up some things about the chances of catching covid, but there's a huge element of 'luck' about it. Most of the time a person won't spread it but then certain people will spread it to huge numbers of people, and there's no knowing who or when or why. Obviously indoors and loud talking/singing/coughing is worse, but there's a massive element of chance.

I don't mean using RATs every day. But for big gatherings? I have allowed my daughter to go to a few sleepovers since Covid but have asked the host to do a RAT in advance. I feel like they think I'm a nutcase though. 

[Mom_to3]

^I really don't understand why we, as a society, have decided to simply accept to huge amount of illness and disability, rather than invest in updated tests and prioritize new treatments and vaccines. It should have been easy to have (better!) cheap, mass produced at home tests that everyone takes every day or two when brushing teeth in the morning, to then stay home from school and work, telework as possible, or at least mask in work-provided fit tested N95 if no sick leave available (which...should also be improved). That would keep the amount of illness much more manageable (we wouldn't have to stay home that often, because we'd get sick much less often!), and surely would be cheaper than all this continuous illness (data from some European countries show huge record breaking absences). 

[mommyoffive]

https://caitlinrivers.substack.com/p/whats-going-around-bonus-edition?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=1017072&post_id=140113663&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=true&r=q2z70&utm_medium=email

[mommyoffive]

https://yourlocalepidemiologist.substack.com/p/21-public-health-accomplishments?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=281219&post_id=139938598&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=true&r=q2z70&utm_medium=email

[mommyoffive]

7 hours ago, bookbard said:

I wish people would go back to using RAT tests before gatherings. My nephew tested the evening after our pre-xmas gathering and was positive. This is a week ago and none of us caught it, thankfully - my elderly parents haven't had covid yet.

I did look up some things about the chances of catching covid, but there's a huge element of 'luck' about it. Most of the time a person won't spread it but then certain people will spread it to huge numbers of people, and there's no knowing who or when or why. Obviously indoors and loud talking/singing/coughing is worse, but there's a massive element of chance.

I don't mean using RATs every day. But for big gatherings? I have allowed my daughter to go to a few sleepovers since Covid but have asked the host to do a RAT in advance. I feel like they think I'm a nutcase though. 

I loved that when places/people had that as a rule before events.  I wish that was still happening.

[Acadie]

8 hours ago, bookbard said:

I don't mean using RATs every day. But for big gatherings? I have allowed my daughter to go to a few sleepovers since Covid but have asked the host to do a RAT in advance. I feel like they think I'm a nutcase though. 

Solidarity! I'm this person in our extended family and social circles. A small thing that could make a big difference individually, and decrease overall rates of transmission, but with public health actively trying to mislead people on modes of transmission and risks of reinfection to the general population it's a tough and lonely place to be. 

[Acadie]

16 hours ago, Faith-manor said:

I am nervous about a family wedding at the end of March, but also worried about family relationships if we skip. This one will be really sticky to get out of. Mark thinks the church is huge, but not the invitee list so he thinks we wait until five minutes before the ceremony starts, zip in and sit in the back several pews behind the group, get out right away, and then since there is an outdoor dining and bar area at the reception, stay outside. We will see. His brother has had covid three times!

What I'm hearing from modelers on Twitter is that the peak for the US in general is probably a couple weeks away, and that at the moment there aren't a bunch of new variants lined up after JN.1 as it gains dominance. So we may see a sharp spike and subsequent drop in cases, like we did with the first winter Omicron wave, with a quieter period after that. 

I don't find our baseline of "lower cases" to be low enough, personally, but there's a decent chance, barring surprises, that we could be seeing much lower transmission mid-to-late Feb and March. 

ETA: Telling my peeps to pull out all the stops on mitigation and avoiding exposure now for sure. 

Edited December 27, 2023 by Acadie

[Faith-manor]

8 hours ago, Mom_to3 said:

^I really don't understand why we, as a society, have decided to simply accept to huge amount of illness and disability, rather than invest in updated tests and prioritize new treatments and vaccines. It should have been easy to have (better!) cheap, mass produced at home tests that everyone takes every day or two when brushing teeth in the morning, to then stay home from school and work, telework as possible, or at least mask in work-provided fit tested N95 if no sick leave available (which...should also be improved). That would keep the amount of illness much more manageable (we wouldn't have to stay home that often, because we'd get sick much less often!), and surely would be cheaper than all this continuous illness (data from some European countries show huge record breaking absences). 

Capitalism. Business dictates public health policy. Money was lost when people were cautious. Corporations will not abide that again, and they have made that known to the powers that be.

Profit before people always. They want us to accept this as our new "norm" so the peasants won't stay home from work when sick, won't take a break from shopping, won't demand changes to corporate policy that might cost the robber barons a few bucks to implement and maintain. Add to that the absolute mass, conspiracy theories "vaccines are tracking implants made from killing babies" and all manner of stupid that caught on, and now the general public is determined to not stop and THINK about the consequences of all this. Just put head in sand, keep playing like nothing is wrong.

[KSera]

1 hour ago, Acadie said:

Solidarity! I'm this person in our extended family and social circles. A small thing that could make a big difference individually, and decrease overall rates of transmission, but with public health actively trying to mislead people on modes of transmission and risks of reinfection to the general population it's a tough and lonely place to be. 

Agree. I also wish people would understand they can’t just take a single RAT when they’re sick and when they get a negative declare it’s not Covid. Most people currently are going to get a negative before they get a positive. I’ve had to tell people gently the negative means they don’t know yet if they have Covid (and unfortunately they did indeed get positive RATs a couple days later). 

1 hour ago, Acadie said:

What I'm hearing from modelers on Twitter is that the peak for the US in general is probably a couple weeks away, and that at the moment there aren't a bunch of new variants lined up after JN.1 as it gains dominance. So we may see a sharp spike and subsequent drop in cases, like we did with the first winter Omicron wave, with a quieter period after that. 

I was just reading the same timeline (peak predicted to fall between Jan 1-Jan 10), but they made the point that HALF the cases in this wave are expected to come after the peak. So people need to understand that reaching the peak doesn’t mean it’s time to let up yet. I expect it will be at least into Feb before we’re out of this wave, and this is a big one. 

[Faith-manor]

2 hours ago, Acadie said:

What I'm hearing from modelers on Twitter is that the peak for the US in general is probably a couple weeks away, and that at the moment there aren't a bunch of new variants lined up after JN.1 as it gains dominance. So we may see a sharp spike and subsequent drop in cases, like we did with the first winter Omicron wave, with a quieter period after that. 

I don't find our baseline of "lower cases" to be low enough, personally, but there's a decent chance, barring surprises, that we could be seeing much lower transmission mid-to-late Feb and March. 

ETA: Telling my peeps to pull out all the stops on mitigation and avoiding exposure now for sure. 

I hope the modeling is accurate. This would mean that if we attended the wedding and just distanced at the church, and then used the outside dining and bar, we have a really good chance of not getting covid and having to stay home and eat the expense of our eclipse trip the following weekend. We purchased and scheduled that trip four years ago. They just got engaged at Thanksgiving and announced the wedding date. Mark and I have no problem with them choosing that date...couples should do it when it is best for them. However, when Mark brought it up to his brother that we might not attend because of its proximity to that vacation which was pre-paid, now past the refundable deadline, and was pre approved vacation days from work, there was a LOT of angst. And of course the biggest issue was we promised "marmee pawpaw astronomy camp" to our 8 year old grandsons who has been counting the days until we come get him. Brother in law was NOT understanding. Our original plan was to hunker down for 2 weeks prior to vacation, mask religiously when going anywhere, just to keep covid, rsv, etc. at bay, with Dd and her family doing the same.

It gets old being the responsible people in a sea of irresponsible relatives, some of whom have had covid multiple times and even have long term damage from it, but still think we are crazy for trying to avoid it. 

[KSera]

1 hour ago, Faith-manor said:

However, when Mark brought it up to his brother that we might not attend because of its proximity to that vacation which was pre-paid, now past the refundable deadline, and was pre approved vacation days from work, there was a LOT of angst. And of course the biggest issue was we promised "marmee pawpaw astronomy camp" to our 8 year old grandsons who has been counting the days until we come get him. Brother in law was NOT understanding. Our original plan was to hunker down for 2 weeks prior to vacation, mask religiously when going anywhere, just to keep covid, rsv, etc. at bay, with Dd and her family doing the same.

Can you just N95 at the wedding and not eat indoors? That would allow you to attend with a low risk of getting infected (assuming you have an N95 that gives you a good seal—you could buy a home fit test kit if you’re unsure). 

[Faith-manor]

18 minutes ago, KSera said:

Can you just N95 at the wedding and not eat indoors? That would allow you to attend with a low risk of getting infected (assuming you have an N95 that gives you a good seal—you could buy a home fit test kit if you’re unsure). 

This particular church, at least, does not welcome people who wear masks. Dh's brother and wife attend a church that believes masks are the mark of the beast. 🙄

We could just not eat. We could just not attend the reception. But since there is an outdoor area, and most folks will probably choose to eat indoors with view of the bridal tables, I felt like outside without masks might be okay, and if anyone asks, we Michiganders are happily taking advantage of the southern sunshine after the long winter.

It is just such a sticky wicket.

[Matryoshka]

15 minutes ago, KSera said:

Can you just N95 at the wedding and not eat indoors? That would allow you to attend with a low risk of getting infected (assuming you have an N95 that gives you a good seal—you could buy a home fit test kit if you’re unsure). 

Dh and I wore our trusty Happy Masks to my nephew's wedding.  Even ate indoors (appetizers outside, but dinner was on 2nd floor; no easy exit) - we lifted the mask for a nanosec to ingest food; chewed and swallowed with it on.  Danced my heart out on the dance floor.  Dh and I were the only ones masked. 

Half the wedding party, most of my brother's family,  and one person at our table got Covid there. Dh and I, fortunately,  did not. Certainly did not regret being the masked weirdos.

[Martha in GA]

6 hours ago, KSera said:

Agree. I also wish people would understand they can’t just take a single RAT when they’re sick and when they get a negative declare it’s not Covid. Most people currently are going to get a negative before they get a positive. I’ve had to tell people gently the negative means they don’t know yet if they have Covid (and unfortunately they did indeed get positive RATs a couple days later). 

And this is why asking for a negative test prior to an event doesn't work 

[BeachGal]

This is just in beginning stages but they hope to make it commercial eventually.

https://www.medscape.com/s/viewarticle/994178?ecd=wnl_sci_tech_231227_MSCPEDIT_etid6144596&uac=428738CV&impID=6144596

An air monitor made by researchers at Washington University in St. Louis can detect COVID-19 virus in a room with an infected person within 5 minutes.

[KSera]

2 hours ago, Martha in GA said:

And this is why asking for a negative test prior to an event doesn't work 

I agree it's not as reliable as we need, but it's a decent marker of contagiousness, so as long as everyone does it right before the event, it lowers risk a lot. The problem is people who have active illness symptoms and take a test and get a negative and decide it means they can go out because "they don't have covid". The test taking strategy is only useful for trying to catch presymptomatic and asymptomatic people. It should never be used as a license for people to go to events while sick.

 

[Ausmumof3]

9 hours ago, KSera said:

Agree. I also wish people would understand they can’t just take a single RAT when they’re sick and when they get a negative declare it’s not Covid. Most people currently are going to get a negative before they get a positive. I’ve had to tell people gently the negative means they don’t know yet if they have Covid (and unfortunately they did indeed get positive RATs a couple days later). 

I was just reading the same timeline (peak predicted to fall between Jan 1-Jan 10), but they made the point that HALF the cases in this wave are expected to come after the peak. So people need to understand that reaching the peak doesn’t mean it’s time to let up yet. I expect it will be at least into Feb before we’re out of this wave, and this is a big one. 

I know this is true but I’m paying $10-$12 per RAT most of the time and we just can’t afford to do multiple. I did manage to get some on clearance recently so we’re good for a while (but not sure if they’re the accurate ones).

That said, we isolate whoever is ill and they don’t go anywhere so we’re more cautious than most people I know even with Covid. 
 

[KSera]

1 hour ago, Ausmumof3 said:

That said, we isolate whoever is ill and they don’t go anywhere so we’re more cautious than most people I know even with Covid.

If people are staying home when sick then that’s more than half the battle right now. I’m only talking about people testing if they’re planning to have an indoor unmasked gathering and want to decrease the risk. It should be that sick people staying home is a given (I realize unfortunately a whole lot of people aren’t doing that). 

[Corraleno]

I was at Costco today, which was even more crowded than usual, and in the entire time I was there I only saw 2 other people (besides me) with a mask on — and those 2 were together and both were elderly women.

I get that most people don't want to wear a mask every time they leave the house year round — but during the holidays, in the middle of a surge, with a highly mutated and evasive variant circulating?? The personal stories in that article Ausmomof3 posted upthread were so devastating, yet it seems like everyone just assumes that long covid is not something that could ever happen to them.

I mean if something as simple as wearing a mask for a bit can reduce your risk of developing a serious (and possibly permanent!) condition that would drastically alter your quality of life, why would you not do that? To me that's like deciding not to wear a seat belt because it wrinkles your clothes and accidents only happen to other people anyway.

[bookbard]

2 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

I know this is true but I’m paying $10-$12 per RAT most of the time and we just can’t afford to do multiple. I did manage to get some on clearance recently so we’re good for a while (but not sure if they’re the accurate ones).

 

I know we can get free RATs at the library here in NSW. I think you can get them in SA if you have a health care card (and apparently you don't need to show proof?) But I agree, as soon as they're free or low cost I start to worry they're not actually working. When my friend's family had covid, they used their own ones - came up straight away - and then the free ones from the school - didn't show up at all.

[kbutton]

I feel like some of the tests are more sensitive than others, but it does help to do them in the evening when viruses like to replicate. We’ve had all kinds turn up positive the one time we had COVID. The rest of the time, if we got a negative, we tested again IF the person in question wasn’t already starting to feel better or it was a question of heading back to school/work.