Anti-vaxxers and the COVID vaccine.

[Not_a_Number]

I'm in NYC and due to the fact that NY has removed religious exemptions to vaccines, there's a VERY sizable contingent of anti-vaxxers in our homeschooling community. 

There's already starting to be discussion about the COVID vaccine. It's clear some people won't get it. 

Can anyone brainstorm with me what I should do going forward? We're obviously going to get vaccinated, and for our other shots, I haven't worried all that much about interacting with non-vaccinated people, because the diseases weren't endemic and because I figured we were immune. But right now, I am going to be extremely hesitant to hang out with people who aren't interested in the vaccine: COVID is all over the place, and furthermore, we don't know yet how long immunity lasts on average. 

What should I do? Sticking your neck out on this issue obviously earns the fiery ire of the anti-vaxxers. Continuing to ignore the issue like I have in the past seems untenable. 

Any thoughts appreciated! I thought of starting a FB group for people who plan to get the vaccine, but that's a lot of work, and as I mentioned, I'm sure this will result in anger from some of the crazier people. 

Edited January 2, 2021 by Not_a_Number

[regentrude]

Since the vaccine is not 100% effective and nobody knows yet whether the vaccination protects not just against illness but also against spreading, I feel even with the vax available it is still prudent to keep the precautions (mask & distancing) until the infection levels have decreased significantly.
I think it would be very invasive to ask people in your group about their vaccination status. In any way, that's a bridge to cross no earlier than the fall, since vaccination will not be widely available to the general population any time soon.

Edited January 2, 2021 by regentrude

[Not_a_Number]

Just now, regentrude said:

Since the vaccine is not 100% effective and nobody knows yet whether the vaccination protects not just against illness but also against spreading, I feel even with the vax available it is still prudent to keep the precautions. I think it would be very invasive to ask people in your group about their vaccination status. In any way, that's a bridge to cross no earlier than the fall, since vaccination will not be widely available to the general population any time soon.

I didn't say I'd ask about their status; I said I could start a group for people who do want to get vaccinated. I don't feel like interrogating people, either, but I want to know how to navigate this. (And if one starts a pro-vaccine group, anti-vaxxers are unlikely to join.) 

We haven't had a play date in real life since March. I would absolutely prefer not to avoid play dates for another year. 

I agree that I'll have to deal with this in the summer on in the fall, but I'd like to think about it now. I know there used to be a local coop that required vaccinations for people to join, so it wouldn't be unprecedented. 

[regentrude]

1 minute ago, Not_a_Number said:

I didn't say I'd ask about their status; I said I could start a group for people who do want to get vaccinated. I don't feel like interrogating people, either, but I want to know how to navigate this. (And if one starts a pro-vaccine group, anti-vaxxers are unlikely to join.) 

We haven't had a play date in real life since March. I would absolutely prefer not to avoid play dates for another year. 

I agree that I'll have to deal with this in the summer on in the fall, but I'd like to think about it now. I know there used to be a local coop that required vaccinations for people to join, so it wouldn't be unprecedented. 

Sure, you can start the group. But while the folks in the group may be pro-vaccine, they will still be unvaccinated for some time. Will you limit playdates then to people who have been vaccinated, and the ones who couldn't get an appointment aren't allowed to come to the park? 
And again, the most crucial aspect for the decision would be to know whether the vaccine prevents transmission, and not just illness of the vaccinated person. Because if it doesn't prevent transmission, it won't help to limit contact to vaxxed people. So first I'd wait for the science to come to a conclusion on that; as far as I understand, that question has not been answered.

[historically accurate]

I know I can't go back to our co-op despite having teens that would really, really benefit from the social aspect. I was unfriended by two members of the co-op the day after I posted  a tongue-in-cheek, pro-vaccine meme on my FB, so I am 99% sure the vaccination rate will be similar to the masking rate there. I haven't yet decided what I'm going to do. I can't keep my 14-16 yo's away from all in-person activities until graduation, but that's looking like it may be our safest option as homeschoolers in this area. 

So I guess I don't have any advice, Not a number, but I can commiserate. 

[mommyoffive]

This is something in the back of my mind too.  I hope that with more information about how and how long the vaccine protects people it will give us a more clear answer.  

[Not_a_Number]

1 minute ago, regentrude said:

Sure, you can start the group. But while the folks in the group may be pro-vaccine, they will still be unvaccinated for some time. Will you limit playdates then to people who have been vaccinated, and the ones who couldn't get an appointment aren't allowed to come to the park? 
And again, the most crucial aspect for the decision would be to know whether the vaccine prevents transmission, and not just illness of the vaccinated person. Because if it doesn't prevent transmission, it won't help to limit contact to vaxxed people. So first I'd wait for the science to come to a conclusion on that; as far as I understand, that question has not been answered.

As far as I know, people do expect it to decrease transmission. Maybe not perfectly, but I haven't heard anyone guess that it won't cut it at all. 

I understand I'm thinking ahead, and that this point will be moot if it doesn't cut transmission (which would paradoxically would make my life easier, lol), but I'd like to think about what to do if it turns out that I'd prefer to hang out with people who are vaccinated or plan to be. 

In terms of what to do about people who haven't been vaccinated yet: no idea. But my DD is only 8, and this is going to be an issue for the next 5 years or something, not just this fall! I'd like to get ahead of this. 

[Not_a_Number]

2 minutes ago, historically accurate said:

I know I can't go back to our co-op despite having teens that would really, really benefit from the social aspect. I was unfriended by two members of the co-op the day after I posted  a tongue-in-cheek, pro-vaccine meme on my FB, so I am 99% sure the vaccination rate will be similar to the masking rate there. I haven't yet decided what I'm going to do. I can't keep my 14-16 yo's away from all in-person activities until graduation, but that's looking like it may be our safest option as homeschoolers in this area. 

So I guess I don't have any advice, Not a number, but I can commiserate. 

Ugh. That sounds so hard. 

I don't know if we should just switch to finding friends who go to school? 😞 But it's so much harder to build friendships if the kids' only available interacting time has to be scheduled between school and other activities. 

[Not_a_Number]

4 minutes ago, mommyoffive said:

This is something in the back of my mind too.  I hope that with more information about how and how long the vaccine protects people it will give us a more clear answer.  

Yeah, the perfect answer would be that the vaccine protects people for a long time and that we can continue our policy of trying to avoid discussions about kids' vaccination status. That has certainly been the expedient (if sometimes cowardly-feeling) solution for us so far. 

[Katy]

We’re still months if not years away from any of these vaccines being approved for children. Most likely the most vulnerable adults will be vaccinated ages before children’s vaccines get approved and the death rates will fall below influenza deaths, making this a non-issue before any school districts have the legal right to require it. 
 

In the mean time it’s prudent to carry on and avoid those families, especially if you have children in a high risk category. By the time it’s resolved there may be s genetic test to see if a particular child is higher risk or not.

[Not_a_Number]

Just now, Katy said:

We’re still months if not years away from any of these vaccines being approved for children. Most likely the most vulnerable adults will be vaccinated ages before children’s vaccines get approved and the death rates will fall below influenza deaths, making this a non-issue before any school districts have the legal right to require it. 

Yeah, last I checked, the youngest kids enrolled in trials are 12. So it's a while until kids can be vaccinated... that's a good point, because it means that there's a good chance that in the fall a good number of adults will be vaccinated but no kids. So one can't just ignore it. 

 

Just now, Katy said:

In the mean time it’s prudent to carry on and avoid those families, especially if you have children in a high risk category. By the time it’s resolved there may be s genetic test to see if a particular child is higher risk or not.

Yes... I'd love a way to avoid those families without becoming social pariahs 😛 . Any idea how I could arrange for that? 

[Ailaena]

Vaccines aren’t approved for under 16 yet, right?  And the trials right now are only 12+?  So kids won’t be vaccinated anyways, only parents.  Ask yourself what is ideal to you, what is acceptable under what circumstances, and what will never be acceptable.   Then work on not feeling bad for having boundaries 😉

I know all kids are different, and all families, and everybody, and things look bleak, but dd grew up without really being a part of any “homeschooling community” and I don’t regret it.  Not every kid has friends or best friends in school and If people aren’t part of your mindset/worldview, it’s kind of a surface friendship anyway. kids who get along make time for each other, school or not. Sorry I got derailed, I know It’s a thing people worry about.  

[Not_a_Number]

1 minute ago, Ailaena said:

Vaccines aren’t approved for under 16 yet, right?  And the trials right now are only 12+?  So kids won’t be vaccinated anyways, only parents.  Ask yourself what is ideal to you, what is acceptable under what circumstances, and what will never be acceptable.   Then work on not feeling bad for having boundaries 😉

Yeah, I don't know the answers to any of this yet. It really depends on what the data winds up showing. 😞 

I don't feel bad for having boundaries AT ALL, but it's all a tricky line to walk. I don't want to make people needlessly angry, either. On the other hand, this might all be worth making a stand over... I'm just not sure. 

 

1 minute ago, Ailaena said:

I know all kids are different, and all families, and everybody, and things look bleak, but dd grew up without really being a part of any “homeschooling community” and I don’t regret it.  Not every kid has friends or best friends in school and If people aren’t part of your mindset/worldview, it’s kind of a surface friendship anyway. kids who get along make time for each other, school or not. Sorry I got derailed, I know It’s a thing people worry about.  

I don't think it'd be good for DD8 to have no friends in school 😞 . She needs social skills practice, being a rather introverted and rigid child. Besides, she absolutely LOVED the homeschool classes we used to take. 

 

[gardenmom5]

this isn't necessarily an anti-vaxxer thing.  yesterday I was reading an article claiming up to 60% of healthcare workers are waiting to get it.  Not because they are against vaccines, but because it was rushed to market and a lot of normal steps in the drug development process were skipped so they could get it to market faster.  

there have been some severe reactions - and i for one, would like to know why.  I have a compromised immune system.  I sure don't want to put something in me that is going to make things worse.

[Not_a_Number]

Just now, gardenmom5 said:

this isn't necessarily an anti-vaxxer thing.  yesterday I was reading an article claiming up to 60% of healthcare workers are waiting to get it.  Not because they are against vaccines, but because it was rushed to market and a lot of normal steps in the drug development process were skipped so they could get it to market faster.  

there have been some severe reactions - and i for one, would like to know why.  I have a compromised immune system.  I sure don't want to put something in me that is going to make things worse.

Yes, I understand why there might be hesitancy about it, but I don't think it's evidence-based at the moment. In any case, I'm sure we'll have pretty good data on safety by fall, and I'm also about 100% sure it won't change anti-vaxxer minds. 

I don't want to debate vaccines on here. I just want to figure out how to navigate this situation, given that I would far prefer to stay safe. 

[gardenmom5]

11 minutes ago, Not_a_Number said:

Yes, I understand why there might be hesitancy about it, but I don't think it's evidence-based at the moment. In any case, I'm sure we'll have pretty good data on safety by fall, and I'm also about 100% sure it won't change anti-vaxxer minds. 

I don't want to debate vaccines on here. I just want to figure out how to navigate this situation, given that I would far prefer to stay safe. 

That's the point.  The steps that would give them that evidence - were rushed.

[Not_a_Number]

1 minute ago, gardenmom5 said:

That's the point.  The steps that would give them that evidence - were rushed.

This isn't the right space to debate vaccines, I'm sorry. We can go talk on the vaccine thread if you like. 

[Farrar]

I think it's a bit unpredictable. Some traditionally anti-vax people I know have already gotten it because they work in healthcare or are planning to get it. I think we have to wait and see how this shakes out. 

The ideal situation is that as vax rates rise, as the nation gets a federal level response, and as the weather changes, numbers go way down and life starts to resume over the summer. Kids won't start being able to get the vaccine until then at the earliest and it may be longer. I think it's fine that when in person things start to be available again, to start an in person thing that's like, these are the measures we expect from families, which would presumably include vaccination when available among other measures. And just make sure clear in the statements, everyone has to decide for themselves if they feel comfortable signing. Other approaches may be fine, but this is the one this particular group has chosen. 

Gosh, will "Covid rule" pledges become the new statement of faith lines for homeschool groups? I could totally see that.

[Not_a_Number]

1 minute ago, Farrar said:

I think it's a bit unpredictable. Some traditionally anti-vax people I know have already gotten it because they work in healthcare or are planning to get it. I think we have to wait and see how this shakes out. 

The ideal situation is that as vax rates rise, as the nation gets a federal level response, and as the weather changes, numbers go way down and life starts to resume over the summer. Kids won't start being able to get the vaccine until then at the earliest and it may be longer. I think it's fine that when in person things start to be available again, to start an in person thing that's like, these are the measures we expect from families, which would presumably include vaccination when available among other measures. And just make sure clear in the statements, everyone has to decide for themselves if they feel comfortable signing. Other approaches may be fine, but this is the one this particular group has chosen. 

I'm starting to lean that way a bit. But then I have to run even more things, lol. Why do I always wind up running things?? 😛 

[almondbutterandjelly]

When my dd was around the age of yours, I put her in a quality after-school "Latchkey" program that had her socialize and do crafts and play with school kids.  I also tried to find a Scouts group for her age, although I was unsuccessful.  If you are more comfortable with having her socialize with school kids due to the vaccine issue, you might look into those.  I was the first person (homeschooler) to do that in the after-school program, but they were totally fine with it.  

Edited January 2, 2021 by perky

[Not_a_Number]

Just now, perky said:

When my dd was around the age of yours, I put her in a quality after-school "Latchkey" program that had her socialize and do crafts and play with school kids.  I also tried to find a Scouts group for her age, although I was unsuccessful.  If you are more comfortable with having her socialize with school kids due to the vaccine issue, you might look into those.  I was the first person to do that in the after-school program, but they were totally fine with it.  

Interesting thought! I think DD is going to be 9 by the time this is all sorted out. How long was this program useful for you? I wonder if I could do something like that... 

[almondbutterandjelly]

Just now, Not_a_Number said:

Interesting thought! I think DD is going to be 9 by the time this is all sorted out. How long was this program useful for you? I wonder if I could do something like that... 

I had her in that after-school program for 2 or 3 years.  If I could have found a Scouts program, that could have been a lot longer.  

[JumpyTheFrog]

I don't think you need to decide your policy now. It will be months before any of these kids' parents are even eligible to get the vaccine.

Edited January 2, 2021 by JumpyTheFrog
off-topic

[Pam in CT]

Given how long most of us, and all children, will have to wait before we'll actually be vaccinated...

...by the time we're at this particular bridge, there will be a lot more certainty about whether vaccinated people can still transmit.

Therefore, as a baseline strategy...

25 minutes ago, regentrude said:

Since the vaccine is not 100% effective and nobody knows yet whether the vaccination protects not just against illness but also against spreading, I feel even with the vax available it is still prudent to keep the precautions (mask & distancing) until the infection levels have decreased significantly.

I think it would be very invasive to ask people in your group about their vaccination status. In any way, that's a bridge to cross no earlier than the fall, since vaccination will not be widely available to the general population any time soon.

... this.

 

In our own circle of loved ones, we at this point expect that (beyond the handful of HCW and first responders) folks will be able to get vaccinated over a sequence of many months: my mother (in MA, in congregrant living) will be vaccinated first, by February; my FIL and his wife (in NYC, living independently) and my aunt & uncle (NYS, living independently) and my husband's aunt (FL) will be vaccinated second, hopefully by March; my husband (asthmatic) third; me and my brother and SIL and assorted cousins & spouses scattered up and down the Eastern Seaboard thereafter; 16+ yo kids returning to college dorms thereafter; younger kids last of all, hopefully by end-summer but at current rates and with current logistic issues, that's not on the table.

So we can reasonably expect a fairly long interval wherein WE -- a wholly vaccinating subsection of America -- have some folks vaccinated and others not-yet-vaccinated. Forget about the wider world for a moment -- how will we interact WITH EACH OTHER during that time? 

We will be deeply grateful that those who are protected, are protected; and we will be more comfortable sharing indoor spaces with them: and we will wear masks, and distance, when we do so because 1) those very vaccinated family members could be inadvertently transmitting TO US; and/or 2) we still could be transmitting to one another.

 

If we apply that that same logic to the world at large, our conduct won't be all that different throughout the interval of vaccine deployment, until it really is true that "anybody who wants the vaccine, can get the vaccine, with the first dose available this week."

By the time we get to that point, we will have much better data about whether or not vaccinated people -- as I will, myself, be by that point in time, as will all my extended family members -- can still transmit. It is my fervent prayer that vaccinated people will NOT be transmitters.

If that turns out not to be true... I'll cross that bridge when I get there.  At this weary and stir-crazy point, as I look out crestfallen not just at Crown Heights disinclination to *take* the vaccine themselves, but at HCW in Wisconsin deliberately spoiling precious vaccine to prevent *others* from getting it...

...I am disinclined to keep holding my umbrella over folks who persist in insisting the rain is just a hoax, indefinitely. 

 

I am ALL ABOUT the values of responsibilities and duty, not just freedoms and rights.  Since infancy I have absorbed values of community, obligation, collective caretaking; and since becoming a parent I have sought to pass those values on.

COVID has taught me many things, including some important and positive and life-affirming things. One heartbreaking thing it has taught me is that these values of obligation and shared responsibility for others are asymetrically held in America.

This is a profound and dark realization, and I truly don't know what to do about it on a societal basis.

But on a how-will-we-live-our-lives-in-the-next-stage basis: once we get to the other side of this, where everyone who WANTS vaccine truly has access to it... I *think* I will be disinclined to take overly onerous measures to protect folks who believe it's NBD and have chosen not to vax.  Examples within how we once lived: masking is to my mind not overly onerous; avoiding theater entirely is.  Let the Darwin Award Games Begin (I may delete that once it sits with me for a bit, but I'm cranky this morning).

 

But we're nowhere near that bridge at this point. And hopefully vaccination will impede transmission, so we never will be.

[Not_a_Number]

1 minute ago, Pam in CT said:

But on a how-will-we-live-our-lives-in-the-next-stage basis: once we get to the other side of this, where everyone who WANTS vaccine truly has access to it... I *think* I will be disinclined to take overly onerous measures to protect folks who believe it's NBD and have chosen not to vax.  Examples within how we once lived: masking is to my mind not overly onerous; avoiding theater entirely is.  Let the Darwin Award Games Begin (I may delete that once it sits with me for a bit, but I'm cranky this morning).

Hah. I agree. But I still want to protect myself! How do I do that in our vaccine-hesitant local group?? 

[Not_a_Number]

2 minutes ago, JumpyTheFrog said:

I know you aren't looking to debate vaccine safety here. I'd just like to point out that it seems that your starting point is, "The vaccine is assumed safe unless proven not." I would think the FDA's general standard should be to need to prove safety on any drug or vaccine, not assume it until otherwise proven.

ETA: I don't think you need to decide your policy now. It will be months before any of these kids' parents are even eligible to get the vaccine.

I am not really sure how I can be clearer that I do NOT want to debate vaccine safety in here!! 

Come over to the vaccine thread, where I will debate vaccine safety until the cows come home. I am a happy debater. But this thread is for something else. 

[Not_a_Number]

4 minutes ago, perky said:

I had her in that after-school program for 2 or 3 years.  If I could have found a Scouts program, that could have been a lot longer.  

Did she make good friends in it? 

[JumpyTheFrog]

I edited my post to stay on topic.

[J-rap]

I'm in the wait and see camp.  NOT about getting the vaccine...  I'll get it when I'm offered it.  I mean about you figuring out how to deal with groups moving forward.  I feel like everything is fast-moving, and people's reactions have been surprising me (people I wouldn't expect to get the vaccine are actually planning to get it, and some people who have always been pro-vaccine are hesitant).  Everything could change again in 3 months...  For example, if this new mutation is really so contagious, people might change their minds again... who knows.  Just keep doing what you're doing in the meantime.

Edited January 2, 2021 by J-rap

[Not_a_Number]

4 minutes ago, JumpyTheFrog said:

I don't think you need to decide your policy now. It will be months before any of these kids' parents are even eligible to get the vaccine.

I may need to plan ahead, though. I like planning ahead 🙂 . Like, I might start a group for people who plan to get the vaccine -- if I did that, I'd need for it to have time to grow, so it's a good idea to think ahead. 

Also, is there actually a realistic world in which hanging out in a whole crowd of people who haven't gotten vaccinated is a good idea? I had the impression that our vaccine rates were likely to be low enough that we are unlikely to eradicate COVID. So then isn't it ALWAYS going to be a risk being in those settings from now on? So then we'd have to rely on vaccines to protect us perfectly to do this, right? Or am I missing something? 

[Not_a_Number]

Just now, J-rap said:

I'm in the wait and see camp.  NOT about getting the vaccine...  I'll get it when I'm offered it.  I mean about you figuring out how to deal with groups moving forward.  I feel like everything is fast-moving, and people's reactions have been surprising me (people I wouldn't expect to get the vaccine are actually planning to get it, and some people who have always been pro-vaccine are hesitant).  Everything could change again in 3 months...  For example, if this new mutation is so contagious that people change their minds again... who knows.  Just keep doing what you're doing in the meantime.

Oh yeah, nothing big is being changed right now. I'm just trying to think ahead about what I could actually DO to make our social life livable after the pandemic.

Right now, the thing I'm doing to make DD8 socially engaged is that I'm running a Zoom math class for DD8 and her homeschool friends. I've also organized another small class for the same group of kids with another teacher. (See, I always wind up running things, lol.) 

So, that's what's on the calendar for the immediate future. But that's obviously not going to be solution forever. So I'm just thinking about what I want. DD8 would dearly love to go back to our local homeschool center, but I don't know how that's going to be possible the way things are going 😕 . 

[almondbutterandjelly]

Just now, Not_a_Number said:

Did she make good friends in it? 

If you mean, did we also schedule play-dates with kids from the program outside of that time, then the answer is no.  Dd didn't really have a true best friend until high school (and they are still bff's in college even though they go to different schools)  (they are together right now actually.  They went to Starbucks and the park this morning.)

Elementary wasn't really the place for great friendships, I don't think.  Dd had friends from church (actually I guess those were her "good" friends that came to birthday parties in elementary).  Dd also made friends in Upwards Basketball that resulted in a couple of slumber parties.  But the after-school program definitely had an important place in meeting social needs.  Plus neighbors next door and various sports that she participated in (usually on the local naval air station through their Youth Center).  

You do have to look all over to meet social needs for your homeschooler, unfortunately.  That's just the nature of the beast. 

[kristin0713]

I am not anti-vax, but I've always been a cautious vaxxer. I delayed and spaced out my kids' shots and chose selectively. My opinion changed dramatically on the flu shot after DD developed an extreme case of PANS after the flu and I credit her immunologist for pretty much saving her life.  I have the utmost respect for this doctor; I believe she is brilliant.  And she is very, very pro-vax.  We get flu shots because the flu would be worse for my DD than the risk of the shot.  So that has influenced me greatly, but I still proceed with caution.  (And I will always wonder if my DD developed PANS in the first place from an immune system damaged by vaccines...but there is no use going there because we will never know.)  

THAT SAID, I am very hopeful about this vaccine and the 95% effectiveness (so far).  I am hopeful that getting the elderly, high risk groups, and frontline workers immunized will drastically cut down on the spread.  Kids are not really the super spreaders, so I'm not too concerned about that, even if it is awhile before it is approved for them and even if a lot of people choose not to get it for their kids.  

I will get it.  I would get it now if I could.  I will feel pretty safe when my whole family is able to get it, even if others choose not to.  

[Pam in CT]

re navigating a future world in which those who wish to be vaccinated, are... and those who opt not to be, aren't

5 minutes ago, Not_a_Number said:

Hah. I agree. But I still want to protect myself! How do I do that in our vaccine-hesitant local group?? 

I don't understand the question.

You get yourself (and your kids) vaccinated as soon as you're able.  Once your kid is vaccinated, sign her up for Girl Scouts or art class at the Met or soccer or anything else she's interested in.

 

Once vaccinated, what difference to your stated goal *of protecting yourself* does it make if your community is vaccine-hesitant?  All other COVID measure decision-making is about protecting OTHERS.

[kokotg]

2 minutes ago, Pam in CT said:

 

 

Once vaccinated, what difference to your stated goal *of protecting yourself* does it make if your community is vaccine-hesitant?  All other COVID measure decision-making is about protecting OTHERS.

It can be a lot more complicated than that, though, especially in the short term. There will likely be a period of time--maybe a pretty long one--when adults in any given group will have had an opportunity to get vaccinated, but kids won't have, for example. And 95% isn't 100%

Not the OP, but my particular concern here is that my husband is on an immunosuppressant that will quite possibly (no way to know for sure yet) make the vaccine less effective for him. He'll get it, but it won't necessarily protect him (or he may need to have titers drawn and get more doses than other people). There are a lot of reasons why a successful vaccination program relies on the vast majority of people getting a vaccine. 

[Ali in OR]

I think some of it will depend on Covid prevalence in the community. I'm not so worried about whether people get flu shots when we're not in flu season, for instance. If there is very little community transmission next summer or the summer after that, that is the time to freely socialize again. But until that happens, I think I still avoid crowds and closed spaces and continue to wear a mask in public, etc. Don't get a feeling of comfort by assuming everyone is vaccinated, but base socialization decisions on what the disease rate is in the community and probably always be more cautious in winter.

My introverted kids survived K-8 homeschool years with little socialization with others (no homeschool groups/activities here). They did have their after school sports/ballet with other kids and they did fine socially in high school and beyond.

[Not_a_Number]

7 minutes ago, Pam in CT said:

Once vaccinated, what difference to your stated goal *of protecting yourself* does it make if your community is vaccine-hesitant?  All other COVID measure decision-making is about protecting OTHERS.

I have no clue how long immunity from the vaccine lasts, that's the problem. If I thought we'd have a good handle on this, I'd continue my "silence is golden" rule. But I don't think we're going to have a good understanding of that for years, especially for children. 

[Not_a_Number]

3 minutes ago, kokotg said:

There will likely be a period of time--maybe a pretty long one--when adults in any given group will have had an opportunity to get vaccinated, but kids won't have, for example.

That, too. So then I'd really prefer to hang out with adults who are vaccinated as soon as possible. 

[Not_a_Number]

13 minutes ago, perky said:

If you mean, did we also schedule play-dates with kids from the program outside of that time, then the answer is no.  Dd didn't really have a true best friend until high school (and they are still bff's in college even though they go to different schools)  (they are together right now actually.  They went to Starbucks and the park this morning.)

Elementary wasn't really the place for great friendships, I don't think.  Dd had friends from church (actually I guess those were her "good" friends that came to birthday parties in elementary).  Dd also made friends in Upwards Basketball that resulted in a couple of slumber parties.  But the after-school program definitely had an important place in meeting social needs.  Plus neighbors next door and various sports that she participated in (usually on the local naval air station through their Youth Center).  

You do have to look all over to meet social needs for your homeschooler, unfortunately.  That's just the nature of the beast. 

Yeah, we've worked hard at this. I'm actually very grateful we did, because that made it possible to organize a class for just her friends in the pandemic -- there were enough kids to make it fun. (We didn't include everyone she had ever played with, obviously, but we have a group of 5 kids who she likes and who were all kids she played with well before the pandemic.) 

I wouldn't mind switching to socializing with the kids in school, but so far, we've had less luck with this. We met a few kids we liked at her afterschool activities -- they both turned out to go to one of the local gifted schools and DD8 does gravitate towards other gifted kids -- but it was REALLY hard to schedule stuff with them. One of them was totally overscheduled and when we tried to plan things, they'd seriously suggest things 2 months later (the mother is nice but very highly strung) and the other kid had very flaky parents who were basically impossible to arrange things with. I would assume this gets easier after kids get big enough to hang out without parents, but for now, it hasn't worked well. 

We've asked DD8 if she'd like to go to an afterschool math program to meet kids, and she was tentatively interested, so we'll see. She also probably wants to continue doing gymnastics, although we didn't wind up meeting anyone there so far. 

[Not_a_Number]

Just now, Seasider too said:

Seems like your best bet would be to keep a quiet ear to the ground and add to your safe contact list accordingly. Much as we’d like it to be quick and easy, I think our forward motion is going to be at a slow crawl. 

People are VERY cagey about this, though. Partially because there's a large enough anti-vaccine contingent that no one wants to say "Yes, we vaccinate!" too loudly. So it's a little hard. 

Ever see one of those logic puzzles where everyone knows something, but telling everyone that everyone knows it radically changes the dynamics? (They are cool logic puzzles, lol.) So... I'm sure everyone knows that we vaccinate, but I'm sure not everyone thinks that everyone knows that we vaccinate. So coming out in the open (like by starting a group) can change the balance of things... 

[kristin0713]

5 minutes ago, kokotg said:

And 95% isn't 100%

Right, but we are not talking 95% effectiveness for a disease that is 100% fatal.  QUITE the contrary although I am not downplaying the seriousness of it.  For my family personally, we would probably (statistically) be fine even if we got covid.  If we were all vaccinated and one of us happened to get it, my thinking is that it would be mild and that we wouldn't all come down with it.  Of course, that is just speculation, but I'm not worried about protecting myself from the unvaccinated. 

[Not_a_Number]

Just now, kristin0713 said:

Right, but we are not talking 95% effectiveness for a disease that is 100% fatal.  QUITE the contrary although I am not downplaying the seriousness of it.  For my family personally, we would probably (statistically) be fine even if we got covid.  If we were all vaccinated and one of us happened to get it, my thinking is that it would be mild and that we wouldn't all come down with it.  Of course, that is just speculation, but I'm not worried about protecting myself from the unvaccinated. 

I'm not so worried about the 95%, especially since it seems to cut severe disease even more. 

I'm more worried about how long immunity lasts, and moreover, whether anyone is going to KNOW the answer to this question anytime soon!! 

[Junie]

My dh and I are planning to get the vaccine.  We are planning to get the kids vaccinated when possible.

The kids are at very low risk from serious complications.  I am not comfortable with the current risk level, but if that is multiplied by .05 (the risk of infection if the vaccine is 95 percent effective) I think I will feel comfortable returning to church and other activities once dh and I are vaccinated.

 

[Pam in CT]

re risk of vaccinated folks still transmitting to folks who still have not been able to vaccinate

4 minutes ago, kokotg said:

It can be a lot more complicated than that, though, especially in the short term. There will likely be a period of time--maybe a pretty long one--when adults in any given group will have had an opportunity to get vaccinated, but kids won't have, for example. And 95% isn't 100%

Not the OP, but my particular concern here is that my husband is on an immunosuppressant that will quite possibly (no way to know for sure yet) make the vaccine less effective for him. He'll get it, but it won't necessarily protect him (or he may need to have titers drawn and get more doses than other people). There are a lot of reasons why a successful vaccination program relies on the vast majority of people getting a vaccine. 

Absolutely; my further-up post speaks to the very long vaccine deployment interval before the early-vaccinators can let down the guard without potentially exposing others who don't yet have access to it.

We expect to stay pretty  much locked down until *everyone* who wants to be vaccinated, can be. We expect that to take up to a year.

We expect to divert considerable financial and organizational resources toward ensuring that goal throughout 2021.

We also expect that a sizable segment of Americans will opt against vaccination even after it is logistically and financially accessible to all.

I understood -- perhaps wrongly -- that the OP question was:

Quote

if/how to interact with that vaccine-hesitant segment once we are ourselves vaccinated?

and my own personal plan is: one way (still pretty much locked down, until absolutely everyone who wants vaccine has access to it) and I'll cross the next bridge (the extent to which I keep on holding my umbrella over folks who insist the rain is NBD) once we get there, and hopefully by then we'll know that vaccinated folks also don't transmit.

If that hope for non-transmissability turns out not to hold, I'll face an ethical dilemma about how much continued sacrifice to take on within what COVID has taught me is a profoundly not-symmetric relationship. And truthfully I don't know for sure how well I'll rise to that challenge; I'm cranky today. But we aren't there yet.

 

But, I may have misunderstood the OP question. I *thought* it was about extent to which we're ethically obliged to keep on protecting the vaccine-hesitant community. But if

13 minutes ago, Not_a_Number said:

I have no clue how long immunity from the vaccine lasts, that's the problem. If I thought we'd have a good handle on this, I'd continue my "silence is golden" rule. But I don't think we're going to have a good understanding of that for years, especially for children. 

*this* is the only issue... just wait on the data, right? What other options ARE there?

[Not_a_Number]

1 minute ago, Pam in CT said:

*this* is the only issue... just wait on the data, right? What other options ARE there?

I don't think we'll have good data on this by the time we are ready to hang out with people. So, yes, I'll wait on this. But whether I'm willing to hang out with anti-vaccinated people depends on this answer, and I won't have it. So... then what? 

[Not_a_Number]

3 minutes ago, Pam in CT said:

. I *thought* it was about extent to which we're ethically obliged to keep on protecting the vaccine-hesitant community.

No, I'm afraid I'm not feeling quite that selfless. Just trying to figure this out from a purely selfish point of view. 

At the point that there is a vaccine and people don't take it, I kind of feel like we're in the situation of this joke: 

 

 

There once was a man who lived in a two story house.  The house was near a river and unfortunately the river began to flood. 

As the river rose, warnings were given via radio, TV and shortwave. Large jeeps drove through the area to evacuate people.  As a jeep drove by the man's house, he was told:

"You are in danger.  Your life is at stake.  You must evacuate.  Get in the Jeep.  Let us help you evacuate."

"No," the man replied from his doorstep.  "I have faith.  I will be ok.  The flood won't get me.  God will take care of me."

The water continued to rise.

Soon the man was on the second floor.  A boat was going through the area and arrived at the man's house. Rescuers made every effort to convince the man to take action so that his life would be saved.

"You are in danger.  Your life is at stake.  You will drown in the flood."

"No worries," says the man.  "I have faith.  Everything is ok.  Even though the flood is rising, I will be fine.  God will take care of me."

The flood continued to rise.

The man went to the roof to avoid the rising water.  A helicopter pilot sees him on top of the roof and hovers above the man.  Using a megaphone, the pilot tries to convince the man to grab the rope ladder which was dangling above his head.

"You are in danger.  The flood is still rising.  You will drown if you do not grab the rope ladder.  Let us help you."

"No worries."  says the man.  "I will be fine.  Yes, the flood is higher but I have faith.  God will take care of me."

The flood rises.  The man drowns.

At the pearly gates, the man says to God:  "I had faith.  You let me die."

To which God replies: "I sent you a jeep, a boat and a helicopter.  What more could I have done for you?"

 

 

Like, people can do what they want. But I'm not responsible for them! 

[kokotg]

4 minutes ago, Pam in CT said:

re risk of vaccinated folks still transmitting to folks who still have not been able to vaccinate

Absolutely; my further-up post speaks to the very long vaccine deployment interval before the early-vaccinators can let down the guard without potentially exposing others who don't yet have access to it.

We expect to stay pretty  much locked down until *everyone* who wants to be vaccinated, can be. We expect that to take up to a year.

We expect to divert considerable financial and organizational resources toward ensuring that goal throughout 2021.

We also expect that a sizable segment of Americans will opt against vaccination even after it is logistically and financially accessible to all.

 

yeah, I'm probably conflating it with my own concerns, which is more what the world will look like for those of us who CAN'T stay locked down when the vaccine starts to be more widely available but there's still plenty of covid circulating. 

[Pam in CT]

re "planning" for a contingency that's at least 9 months out in the future

3 minutes ago, Not_a_Number said:

I don't think we'll have good data on this by the time we are ready to hang out with people. So, yes, I'll wait on this. But whether I'm willing to hang out with anti-vaccinated people depends on this answer, and I won't have it. So... then what? 

I'm not following when you think you'll be ready to "hang out" with people. Unless you have some priority access, by the time your kids get the vaccine -- by the time kids in general in NYC or Boston have access to the vaccine -- there will be data on how well vaccine immunity holds. 

Perhaps not yet on whether it holds indefinitely, but we'll have good data on whether it holds for a year.  Enough to sign up for Girl Scouts or a math enrichment class, if your principal concern is the health of your own nuclear family.

[regentrude]

13 minutes ago, Not_a_Number said:

I'm more worried about how long immunity lasts, and moreover, whether anyone is going to KNOW the answer to this question anytime soon!! 

The answer to this will be known once the first vaccinated people become infected, so the LATER we know, the better. If we know soon, it means the protection only lasts for a short time. 

[ktgrok]

For how long it lasts, we won't know the extent, but we will know a minimum, by the time us normal people get vaccinated. Like, we will know it lasts "at least X amount of time" since they are continuing to monitor phase 3 participants (right?) and they will have been vaccinated well before we get it. So if they are still protected, so are we.