The herd immunity theory...

[Corraleno]

I don't think the GBD was even intended as a serious proposal that they expect anyone (except DeSantis) to implement. I think the reason it doesn't include any actual plan is because it's intended purpose will expire on November 4th. It's designed to add a fake "scientific" veneer to an incredibly chaotic and  incompetent response that has resulted in more than 200,000 dead Americans, and to make the administration's non-policy (it'll disappear like magic!) retroactively seem like it was an actual evidence-based, scientifically-suppported plan that would have worked — if only those politically-motivated governors and the fear-mongering fake news media didn't screw things up. 

[Not_a_Number]

5 minutes ago, Pen said:

 

My issue is that we are past that stage.

Your answers now are probably what I was trying to tell you and others in Spring.

We did not do what I would have liked as soon or as much as we would have liked, but in most places we did avert crisis of complete hospital overwhelm. 

Now I think we are at a different stage.

 

I don’t think I disagreed with you once in the spring. 

[Jean in Newcastle]

1 minute ago, Pen said:

 

My issue is that we are past that stage.

Your answers now are probably what I was trying to tell you and others in Spring.

We did not do what I would have liked as soon or as much as we would have liked, but in most places we did avert crisis of complete hospital overwhelm. 

Now I think we are at a different stage.

 

complete hospital overwhelm isn't something that you avert once and then there is no more chance of that.  Hospital overwhelm is going to happen wherever they "let it rip"unless people themselves step in and do what our (hopefully current) top leaders are refusing to do. 

Anyone who wants to go for herd immunity should go out and actively try to get the virus.  And they don't get to say that I am wishing harm on them because if they think that herd immunity is good enough for "others" to go out and contract this virus then it is good enough for "them" to get it too. 

I personally don't want to get this virus.  And I personally don't want anyone to get it.  But I'm not advocating herd immunity without a vaccine first. 

[Not_a_Number]

1 minute ago, Jean in Newcastle said:

Anyone who wants to go for herd immunity should go out and actively try to get the virus.  And they don't get to say that I am wishing harm on them because if they think that herd immunity is good enough for "others" to go out and contract this virus then it is good enough for "them" to get it too. 

Yep. This. If you think it’s a good idea, you should socialize as much as possible and get infected. As I said, I had toyed with the idea in the early summer, but decided against, so I’m not being snarky.

[Not_a_Number]

By the way, NY state is currently trying to do targeted action in cluster communities. Don’t know if it’ll work, but they are monitoring the data very closely and in much detail. I also have the impression their vast numbers of contact tracers are managing to quarantine potential superspreading events. 

They are also reaching most people:

https://hhinternet.blob.core.windows.net/uploads/2020/09/test-and-trace-data-metrics-20200929.pdf

[Pen]

4 minutes ago, Not_a_Number said:

NY is doing a lot of stuff. Tons of testing. Tons of contact tracing. Closed indoor dining. 

 

And is doing pretty well right?

 

my area was doing among best of West Coast early on, has never completely re-opened, does contact tracing apparently fully other than people not answering phones problems, 

different than NY, testing has been difficult 

 

We have mask mandate,

most schools still are closed (because of surge upwards)...

we have had some indoor dining with limitations since early summer, but it does not seem to be the driver that shot cases up 6-7x in my county in around September. At least the timing does not seem to fit. 

[Not_a_Number]

Just now, Pen said:

we have had some indoor dining with limitations since early summer, but it does not seem to be the driver that shot cases up 6-7x in my county in around September. At least the timing does not seem to fit. 

Have they traced where people got it?

Edited October 15, 2020 by Not_a_Number

[Pen]

6 minutes ago, Not_a_Number said:

I don’t think I disagreed with you once in the spring. 

 

Okay . I can’t recall exactly. I know some people did. You might not even have joined big thread yet. 

[Not_a_Number]

1 minute ago, Pen said:

 

Okay . I can’t recall exactly. I know some people did. You might not even have joined big thread yet. 

Hard to tell now. I joined in March.

[Lady Florida.]

2 hours ago, Frances said:

Are medical procedures still being delayed in some states? Here they’ve allowed elective procedures since the early summer. And as far as I know, manufacturing and production are at full capacity and have been for the majority of the pandemic. Health clubs are open. I’d say the two main things still being affected here by mandate, not choice, are schools and large gatherings. So businesses associated with those things are still affected. But then we’ve had very good compliance with masking and social distancing for quite awhile.

I'm not sure when elective surgery returned but I think it was sometime in summer. I had one today. It was elective in the sense of not an emergency but needed to be done ASAP in order to give me some answers and a treatment plan. I was pleased with how the hospital handled everything. Also, in my county there are a few designated hospitals for known Covid patients. Of course that doesn't prevent anyone from accidentally being at the other hospitals, but it helps. 

4 minutes ago, Corraleno said:

I don't think the GBD was even intended as a serious proposal that they expect anyone (except DeSantis) to implement.

 

There are a number of plays on his name being used here in our state. Among them are DeathSantis and DeSatan. Sadly, Florida has no recall option for elected officials. We have him for another 2 years. He won by less than 1 percentage point so he can't claim he's who Floridians wanted. He just got lucky.

[Susan in TX]

2 hours ago, Not_a_Number said:

They seem to only want to protect the really old, so I think the 40-60 group is on their own.

In my county (Dallas TX) 33% of deaths have been in the 41-64 age group. The highest number of hospitalizations (44%) is also those 41-64. Seventy percent of those hospitalized have been under 65.

If we let covid rip through the population there will be more deaths in younger people because our hospitals will not be able to provide the level of care needed for those with serious cases to survive. 

Susan in TX

[Not_a_Number]

Just now, Susan in TX said:

In my county (Dallas TX) 33% of deaths have been in the 41-64 age group. The highest number of hospitalizations (44%) is also those 41-64. Seventy percent of those hospitalized have been under 65.

If we let covid rip through the population there will be more deaths in younger people because our hospitals will not be able to provide the level of care needed for those with serious cases to survive. 

Susan in TX

Yep. Of course. Hospitalizations aren’t nearly as lopsided as deaths.

[Corraleno]

9 minutes ago, Pen said:

we have had some indoor dining with limitations since early summer, but it does not seem to be the driver that shot cases up 6-7x in my county in around September. At least the timing does not seem to fit. 

Isn't that primarily universities opening in September? As far as I can see the biggest increases in OR are focused on universities and rural counties — both areas where people are not following mandates for masking and distancing.  (ETA: and are also less likely to cooperate with contact tracers)

Edited October 15, 2020 by Corraleno

[TCB]

You know it really isn’t that hard. All of the “nothing we can do” is bs.

I, and my family, have not caught and not passed on Covid to anyone, and I work looking after Covid patients. I am extremely careful at work - some that I work with aren’t. We do not eat inside restaurants, but we do get takeout and sometimes eat on the restaurant patio if it is pretty empty, which it almost always is because people around here don’t want to eat outside, even when the weather is perfect. We always wear masks when we go inside. We never get close, in distance, to older, vulnerable people we know. If exposed we quarantine. Last week I was tested because of congestion and cough - thankfully negative.

My dd is a student at a university that had a really large outbreak initially. She followed all their rules, and ours, and has not caught it.

If you insist on living your life like you always have, then many will get sick and a number will die. If you are prepared to make some small sacrifices then there’s a much bigger chance we will succeed.

I don’t know the answer to schools since that is an area we aren’t really involved in. All I can say about that is, in my area, many families with kids in school are not being careful or making changes in any area of their lives.

[Moonhawk]

3 minutes ago, Bootsie said:

I am sorry if I have missed your solution for contact tracing many times.  I am indeed interested in your answers to your questions.  I do not see how when in many parts of the country, contact tracers are not even able to reach 50% of the people--I do not know what is going to change that.  

Well, I don't know if I'm understanding the issue here, but... if people weren't going out as much and pretending life is normal, ie going to malls, multiple stores, parks, restaurants, parties, etc, that would change the difficulties for the contact tracers, yes? So, not only would it be less spread, it would be easier to trace and contain?

---

Re what we can/should do, I am feeling a bit defeatist and I can't speak for anyone else, but I would just be THRILLED if we could get people masking. What a low standard to try and achieve, but I think it's sad that this is an "extreme measure" we can't accomplish even now. 

There is what "should" be done and what "can" be done. We can't even achieve full masking. It is going to take a huge event to make anything bigger than that happen. and if 200K dead isn't a big enough event, I don't know (or want to find out) what it would take to get compliance.

I guess my use of "can" isn't entirely correct. Because we totally could achieve full masking and more if we wanted to. But the will is not there, and it's become a matter of political posturing that we won't. 

[Not_a_Number]

1 minute ago, Moonhawk said:

But the will is not there, and it's become a matter of political posturing that we won't. 

Right. Given the state of our politics, I’ve given up. That’s different from saying it couldn’t have been different.

[Pen]

1 minute ago, Not_a_Number said:

Have they traced where people got it?

 

The number one major problem in my area seems to be a large university (think like Columbia U in size and a fairly dense urban campus though possibly this one even bigger —and with lots of students living in apartments or group housing in surrounding area)

which is almost entirely online,  I thought would help—but apparently though not going to classes in person they are getting together socially — and not in small consistent bubbles so rapidly mixing up who is in contact with whom even if specific gathering is small.  Students travel from all over state, other states,  and other countries as permitted.  So presumably cases arrived with arriving students and I have not heard of an identified case 0. 

Additional smaller outbreaks reported in food production industry (fishing, farming etc), Retirement Communities (even if club houses and pools etc are closed), home gatherings, funerals, weddings. 

We had had Nursing Home problems, but I think that has stayed under good control. 

[Bootsie]

28 minutes ago, Not_a_Number said:

NY is doing a lot of stuff. Tons of testing. Tons of contact tracing. Closed indoor dining. 

I am not in NY so I may not have access to information about what all NY is doing as far as contact tracing, how they are going about it differently than other places and how successful it is being.  When I do a search I come up with things such as:

"New York City began an ambitious contact-tracing program last month, but fewer than half of those who tested positive gave information about their close contacts, a spokeswoman for Mayor Bill de Blasio told The New York Times." and

"But in the program’s first two months, more than 11,000 infected people — over half of all new cases — didn’t provide any names of others they might have exposed. When people have identified contacts, tracers have finished interviews with 6 in 10 of them, short of the city’s goal. The city has yet to say how quickly it’s connecting with people or what it’s gleaning about potential sources of exposure." https://apnews.com/article/720ec7e5e2e190f87e5e63a964250c93

If NY has really been able to turn things around in their contact tracing it would be helpful for those of us not in NY to know that has helped.  

[Not_a_Number]

2 minutes ago, Bootsie said:

I am not in NY so I may not have access to information about what all NY is doing as far as contact tracing, how they are going about it differently than other places and how successful it is being.  When I do a search I come up with things such as:

"New York City began an ambitious contact-tracing program last month, but fewer than half of those who tested positive gave information about their close contacts, a spokeswoman for Mayor Bill de Blasio told The New York Times." and

"But in the program’s first two months, more than 11,000 infected people — over half of all new cases — didn’t provide any names of others they might have exposed. When people have identified contacts, tracers have finished interviews with 6 in 10 of them, short of the city’s goal. The city has yet to say how quickly it’s connecting with people or what it’s gleaning about potential sources of exposure." https://apnews.com/article/720ec7e5e2e190f87e5e63a964250c93

If NY has really been able to turn things around in their contact tracing it would be helpful for those of us not in NY to know that has helped.  

I linked you their dashboard. Judge for yourself if they turned it around.

[Not_a_Number]

2 minutes ago, Ordinary Shoes said:

What it feels like to me, in a state where no one really cares, is that the world is going to completely pass us by if we don't do some things. My DD could lose all of her friends and she's an only child. 

Yeah, people are more serious here on average, and it still feels kind of like that!!

[Susan in TX]

1 hour ago, Bootsie said:

What specific gets cases under control?  Flexibility regarding what?  What evidence do we base it on at this point?  

If I were in charge and was flexible and basing my policy on evidence, what would I do?  I really don't know what the plan would be?  

Dallas County published Covid health guidelines. I think if we all followed these we would be well on our way to getting it under control. 

https://www.dallascounty.org/Assets/uploads/docs/covid-19/community/Dallas-CovidGeneralGuidelines-100120-2.pdf

Susan in TX

[Pen]

14 minutes ago, Corraleno said:

Isn't that primarily universities opening in September? As far as I can see the biggest increases in OR are focused on universities and rural counties — both areas where people are not following mandates for masking and distancing.  (ETA: and are also less likely to cooperate with contact tracers)

 

Yes, my area’s problems are primarily university driven by one big uni statistically and another in actual real life. 

And while NY has big universities they are mostly not as huge a population percentage as OSU and UofO are for their respective counties. 

Friends in NY tell me that compliance of NY university students is probably not hugely different than Oregon (obviously it differs school to school).

[Frances]

25 minutes ago, Corraleno said:

Isn't that primarily universities opening in September? As far as I can see the biggest increases in OR are focused on universities and rural counties — both areas where people are not following mandates for masking and distancing.  (ETA: and are also less likely to cooperate with contact tracers)

Exactly correct. So this just shows that things can work when people comply with the rules. Compared to many states, OR has been relatively open for quite awhile without any major problems.K12 schools and large gatherings are still the most affected by mandates.

[Bootsie]

26 minutes ago, Not_a_Number said:

By the way, NY state is currently trying to do targeted action in cluster communities. Don’t know if it’ll work, but they are monitoring the data very closely and in much detail. I also have the impression their vast numbers of contact tracers are managing to quarantine potential superspreading events. 

They are also reaching most people:

https://hhinternet.blob.core.windows.net/uploads/2020/09/test-and-trace-data-metrics-20200929.pdf

If you look at the numbers, they only got contact information from 44.8% of the cases. (18,655 out of 41,683).  Then only 57% of those contacts actually completed the intake.  (and it looks like over 25% of those were symptomatic by the time they were contacted.)  That looks similar to numbers I have seen in other parts of the country.

 

[Bootsie]

13 minutes ago, Susan in TX said:

Dallas County published Covid health guidelines. I think if we all followed these we would be well on our way to getting it under control. 

https://www.dallascounty.org/Assets/uploads/docs/covid-19/community/Dallas-CovidGeneralGuidelines-100120-2.pdf

Susan in TX

Which of those guidelines do you think people around you are not following?  I am also in North Texas and I am realizing I do not get out much.  But since July I have seen a total of 1 person in the grocery store without a mask (and that person had some obvious physical and mental challenges).  I do not see people shaking hands. I haven't seen people or heard of people who feel ill being out and about.  A number of the churches around me have not started in person worship.  Many schools are online.  My neighbors aren't having parties. 

I know I am in a bit of a different situation in that I don't have young children involved in activities,.  I am beginning to wonder if I just live under a rock and there are a lot of people not following those guidelines than I realize.  

[Spy Car]

1 minute ago, fifiruth said:

It seems as though too many people are living in the past....March and April. We are now seven months into this, and the dynamics are different. It’s the same virus, yes, but the situation is different. 

As a local head of a seven-hospital system in our area said a couple of weeks ago...they usually only have 9-10 patients, and sometimes none, spread out over the seven hospitals. He said that they know better what to do now, and have some medicines and protocols which have enabled the vast majority to recover. He also said that they use a similar protocol as the one the pres. received, all except that it’s convalescent plasma instead of Regeneron.   

As it is now, some state gov. are in a total holding pattern and are refusing to slowly but surely KEEP moving forward with ever increasing openness. Flat out refusal, and even threatening more restrictions.  As NOW has recently said, governments need to stop using lockdowns as their primary stategy.

 

We need to stop super-spreading. Getting people sick with Covid is NOT a benefit.

People need to behave responsibly. Killing 2 million Americans--which is what a "let 'er rip" policy would likely bring simply is not acceptable.

Bill

 

[kbutton]

 

38 minutes ago, Ordinary Shoes said:

I can't think of anything that is still closed in this state. Even the schools are back 5 days a week. Most people still comply with the mask requirements around us but I hear compliance is much less in other parts of the state (AZ). I've noticed that I always see one or two people without masks at the Target or grocery store in the last few weeks. That's a change. It was 100% compliance over the summer. 

People here are having weddings, parties, etc. I'm not sure what's happening on Halloween. 

This is all so hard for everyone and it would have been so much easier if there was some kind of reasonable plan at work. But at least here, it's everyone on their own. 

We bailed on Halloween. My younger kiddo is almost 13. When the weather is nice, we get quite a lot of kids coming by for candy. When the weather is bad, we don't. I decided that if they can stay home when it's too cold or wet (which is quite subjective considering it could be super cold and miserable where I grew up trick or treating), then they can stay home during a pandemic. I'm not enabling it. 

Could I potentially model some kind of wonderful, open-hearted behavior about how to keep fun things alive safely during the pandemic? Sure, but almost no one is extending that courtesy back.

Our light will be off, and frankly, I don't care. 

Thankfully my kids have been super nice about all the restrictions. I don't think they realize that their friends will all probably have moved on. They do know that I probably won't be able to go back to the same church, etc., and I think they are just treading water to see what happens. I feel bad for them, but we were already outside the norm anyway as we don't go to all the right homeschool stuff (2e kids who don't fit academically anywhere, few "fun" co-ops that meet at the right time or aren't already full).

 

[Not_a_Number]

36 minutes ago, Bootsie said:

If you look at the numbers, they only got contact information from 44.8% of the cases. (18,655 out of 41,683).  Then only 57% of those contacts actually completed the intake.  (and it looks like over 25% of those were symptomatic by the time they were contacted.)  That looks similar to numbers I have seen in other parts of the country.

They said some cases weren't eligible to give contacts. I'm not sure what that means, but your percentages don't agree with theirs. 

If you want to dig around and figure out if they are making a meaningful distinction, go ahead.

[Not_a_Number]

13 minutes ago, fifiruth said:

As a local head of a seven-hospital system in our area said a couple of weeks ago...they usually only have 9-10 patients, and sometimes none, spread out over the seven hospitals. He said that they know better what to do now, and have some medicines and protocols which have enabled the vast majority to recover. He also said that they use a similar protocol as the one the pres. received, all except that it’s convalescent plasma instead of Regeneron.   

And as soon as I see the IFRs dropping, I'll act accordingly. The last IFR study I saw was out of Arizona in August, and it was exactly the same as the IFR in March in NY -- around 0.6%. 

I refuse to act like something has changed without any data. @Medicmom2.0was reporting seeing SICKER patients than she saw in the spring, so should I conclude the virus is getting worse? No; I'm going to go with the data I've seen. Eventually, I do expect the treatments to improve outcomes. 

[Not_a_Number]

Just now, Ordinary Shoes said:

Not all states are past March and April. Some states are essentially March and April. Supposedly, ICU bed usage in Oklahoma City hospitals are at max capacity now. 

Well, the story people are spreading right now (with no support that I can see) is that treatments have improved, and things are better. 

I'll believe it when I see it. And given that I would LIKE it to be true, I really will believe it when I see it. 

[Not_a_Number]

9 minutes ago, Not_a_Number said:

They said some cases weren't eligible to give contacts. I'm not sure what that means, but your percentages don't agree with theirs. 

If you want to dig around and figure out if they are making a meaningful distinction, go ahead.

Looking at it more, it looks like a case was "eligible" if it completed intake, so you're right, @Bootsie -- they aren't great numbers. 

We'll see how NYC does. In general, I've been unimpressed with our mayor, but I've been happy with the governor, so we'll have to see how that plays out. They certainly do have excellent testing access. 

[Bootsie]

3 minutes ago, Not_a_Number said:

They said some cases weren't eligible to give contacts. I'm not sure what that means, but your percentages don't agree with theirs. 

If you want to dig around and figure out if they are making a meaningful distinction, go ahead.

I don't know what you mean that my percentages don't agree.  The show 18,655 people gave contacts out of 41,683 cases.  18,655/41,683 = 44.6%.  That is using the raw numbers of the charts.

You  have to be careful with the way you are reading their percentages.  It is not 69% of the CASES that gave contacts.  It is 69% of those they contact AND completed the intake--so it is more like 69% of 70%.  

[ieta_cassiopeia]

I'm from the middle of the UK (which is about to go into semi-lockdown). I've personally seen the following rules being broken:

 

- social distancing (it's supposed to be 2 metres, but lots of people casually bumping into each other and walking close to others. None seem to think it's a problem, and indeed look at me strange when I avoid them).

 

- lack of masking (it was 95% adherence when the law initially was put in, but now I'm estimating it to be about 50% in larger shops. Smaller shops are close to 95% because it's harder to hide not wearing one. Non-maskers are touching faces freely and not washing their hands afterwards).

 

- people with obvious symptoms out and about (and family/employers asking/telling people reporting symptoms to go out and about despite knowing about the symptoms and, in some cases, knowing the person they're talking to is self-isolating).

 

- leaving blatantly false details (and restaurants accepting it because they're already losing money, reasoning they'll go bust if they reject people anyway and police patrols are concentrated into fairly small areas because finding rule-breakers is like shooting fish in a barrel)

 

- bad/no handwashing (after great adherence to "clean hands" rules in the spring and early summer, I can report handwashing seems to be back down to usual - with plenty of people not washing their hands or only making a token gesture towards it).

 

I've not seen kissing, which is odd as unlike the above, that's still legal here (as long as certain other restrictions are obeyed)!

 

There's a huge amount of pessimism, of the "If I'm going to die - either of COVID-19 or bankruptcy - anyway, what does it matter if I do what I please first?" variety. Therefore no motive to follow the law. Another factor is that only 49% of people surveyed knew that there were rules for distance, masking and handwashing in the first place (down from 70% in April).

 

There are definitely big parties happening, but most of them are in the cities, so I only hear about them from friends who've either attended them or been disgusted by the concept of them and stayed away (one friend in university accommodation was reporting a bunch of parties her fellow students were at, with increasing alarm, then turned out to be one of only 2 people in the building who didn't get COVID - the other being a staff member working on her floor. She wasn't surprised, but was surprised that the landlords prevented food from being delivered, forcing some who couldn't sneak food in to break quarantine simply to eat,,,)

 

My church expects to be shut until next spring at the earliest, and may never re-open. Several other churches are open for regular worship and youth activities based on bible study (though not play-based activities yet). They require worshippers to book in advance and have a suite of protective measures in place. The infections are largely coming from parties, pubs, restaurants, town centre gatherings and secondary schools (which are generally following mandates, but the mandates imposed are weak compared to other places).

 

Flu vaccine is being rolled out to certain populations - I'm due to get mine on Monday.

Contact tracing is 64% of known contacts (the biggest limiting factor is lack of staff, but no sign of further recruitment exists). No statistics exist for how many abided by the law about recording details in the first place, or put false information in, because there would need to be more staff to get a confident figure. And stop using a spreadsheet format invented in 1985 for their database, but that's a rant for another day...

 

 

[Not_a_Number]

I think the other thing NY has going for it is that test results are returned quite rapidly. So then people can quarantine really quickly, and that makes a big difference. 

[Not_a_Number]

Just now, Bootsie said:

You  have to be careful with the way you are reading their percentages.  It is not 69% of the CASES that gave contacts.  It is 69% of those they contact AND completed the intake--so it is more like 69% of 70%.  

Yeah, I looked at it again and saw that they were doing nonsense with numbers. (You can see my post above.) 

Do you have Texas contact tracing data? 

[Not_a_Number]

1 minute ago, ieta_cassiopeia said:

And stop using a spreadsheet format invented in 1985 for their database, but that's a rant for another day...

 

I saw that. That was ridiculous. 

[catz]

When people talk about opening up they don't talk about overwhelming the system.  You can be a short window of time from people dying in the hallways with no medical care very quickly.  It's not like areas haven't seen this happen.  Northern Wisconsin is quite overwhelmed at the moment.

https://www.postcrescent.com/story/news/2020/10/07/wisconsin-coronavirus-green-bay-appleton-wausau-hospitals-reaching-breaking-point-state-prepares-ove/5915194002/

I'm also not convinced opening things up more will bring people out more.  The people who want to be out, are out doing whatever they want from what I'm seeing.  If someone really wanted to prove this was safe, they'd sponsor a neutral study and do pulmonology and cardiology follow ups for a few thousand people at 3-6 months post infection.  I have a parent that died of virus related cardiac damage.  He was diagnosed a few months after a virus with fatigue, shortness of breath, etc.  He didn't have overwhelmingly obvious cardiac symptoms and he was very close to qualifying for a transplant at that point. It's not a great way to live or die. 

[Not_a_Number]

5 minutes ago, Amoret said:

You will be glad to know, then, that in Wisconsin, they just successfully challenged and at least temporarily overturned a mandate to limit restaurant/bar capacity. Several school districts in the hard hit Fox Valley are opening back up and sending kids back to the classrooms after a two week shut down (one district had over 600 signatures in support). Most small districts never closed. They aren't letting the record numbers of cases, deaths, or hospitalizations get in the way of making sure everything in the state stays open. People are having large weddings, parties, funerals, and restaurant dinners. You would find many, perhaps most people there absolutely in agreement with you.

At the same time, many hospitals across the state are near, at, or over capacity. They are bringing in nurses from out of state because there aren't enough local nurses to staff the beds. Health care workers are pleading with people to change their behavior as the 14-day average is now above 20%, but people simply don't want to.

They'll probably change their mind if the deaths and illnesses go up enough 😕 . The problem is that this is too late. 

[Spy Car]

2 minutes ago, Amoret said:

You will be glad to know, then, that in Wisconsin, they just successfully challenged and at least temporarily overturned a mandate to limit restaurant/bar capacity. Several school districts in the hard hit Fox Valley are opening back up and sending kids back to the classrooms after a two week shut down (one district had over 600 signatures in support). Most small districts never closed. They aren't letting the record numbers of cases, deaths, or hospitalizations get in the way of making sure everything in the state stays open. People are having large weddings, parties, funerals, and restaurant dinners. You would find many, perhaps most people there absolutely in agreement with you.

At the same time, many hospitals across the state are near, at, or over capacity. They are bringing in nurses from out of state because there aren't enough local nurses to staff the beds. Health care workers are pleading with people to change their behavior as the 14-day average is now above 20%, but people simply don't want to.

Weren't they forced to open an overflow hospital in tents on a fairground there in WI because the hospitals are at/near/or over capacity?

Bill

 

 

 

[Bootsie]

7 minutes ago, Not_a_Number said:

Yeah, I looked at it again and saw that they were doing nonsense with numbers. (You can see my post above.) 

Do you have Texas contact tracing data? 

I have not seen that Texas has published any numbers for the state.  It is my understanding that about 1/2 of the contact tracing is being done by state employees and about 1/2 at the county health department level. There has not been any consistent gathering of information among all of those parties.  The most recent statistics I saw for my county were in the 40% range for reaching people and getting contact info--which is similar to the NY numbers you provided, and is in line with numbers I have seen from other states.  That is why I am interested if any state in the US is really doing something different, getting better contact information, and then seeing that it is helping contain spread.  

[Not_a_Number]

1 minute ago, Amoret said:

I know someone yesterday who said "We're still trying to figure out if people are actually getting sick from this thing or if it's all overblown." It will be a while.

I actually think this is a phase change kind of phenomenon. You only need to be one or two degrees of separation from a death and it FEELS real. Wisconsin is not very hard-hit death-wise right now. If those positivity/death correlations hold up, that will no longer be true in a month, and that'll feel different to people. 

Edited October 15, 2020 by Not_a_Number

[Not_a_Number]

2 minutes ago, Bootsie said:

I have not seen that Texas has published any numbers for the state.  It is my understanding that about 1/2 of the contact tracing is being done by state employees and about 1/2 at the county health department level. There has not been any consistent gathering of information among all of those parties.  The most recent statistics I saw for my county were in the 40% range for reaching people and getting contact info--which is similar to the NY numbers you provided, and is in line with numbers I have seen from other states.  That is why I am interested if any state in the US is really doing something different, getting better contact information, and then seeing that it is helping contain spread.  

So 40% of all people are reached, or they provide contacts? It'd be good to see the numbers. 

NY also rolled out a tracking app, so we'll see if that helps or not. I would guess that the rapid tests are helping a lot, because contact tracing someone from a few weeks ago and someone who got sick yesterday is a very different proposition. I know Cuomo's e-mails tend to explain where the clusters are, which is why I'm assuming contact tracing is working relatively well -- they find clusters, they isolate people, the positivity goes down again. 

[Not_a_Number]

Here's the regional positivity rates: 

https://forward.ny.gov/percentage-positive-results-region-dashboard

It looks like when the positivity goes up above a certain amount (2%, maybe?), they run extra tests in the area, find where it had spread, and quarantine everyone at the superspreading event/place. So far, that seems to have worked. NYC is the big test, of course, because of the density. 

[Not_a_Number]

1 minute ago, fifiruth said:

The average being above 20% is indeed too high.

I’m saying slowly keep opening up, as in keep an eye on the situation and stop if it looks to be too much. They could increase the number of people inside by 5 every two weeks, for instance. That would give people hope but still be very conservative in its approach. Opening up wide open all at once is too risky, but flat out not moving at all is increasing frustration, anger, non-compliance, and despair.

NY has been sloooowly opening up. Now of course they've also had to shut some regions in NYC down due to noncompliance and clusters. But overall, things are opening, bit by bit. 

Edited October 15, 2020 by Not_a_Number

[Not_a_Number]

1 minute ago, fifiruth said:

The average being above 20% is indeed too high.

I’m saying slowly keep opening up, as in keep an eye on the situation and stop if it looks to be too much. They could increase the number of people inside by 5 every two weeks, for instance. That would give people hope but still be very conservative in its approach. Opening up wide open all at once is too risky, but flat out not moving at all is increasing frustration, anger, non-compliance, and despair.

But you understand that "slowly opening up" is not what the GBD people are proposing, right? They are proposing everyone go out and get some immunity right now. 

[math teacher]

One of the contact tracers calling me comes up on my phone as Great Xcapes Travel. Really makes me want to answer the phone-not.

[Not_a_Number]

1 minute ago, math teacher said:

One of the contact tracers calling me comes up on my phone as Great Xcapes Travel. Really makes me want to answer the phone-not.

Hahahahah, OK, that's amazing. How did you figure it out? 

[math teacher]

7 minutes ago, Not_a_Number said:

Hahahahah, OK, that's amazing. How did you figure it out? 

It only started to come up as that when I added the number to my contacts.

[AmandaVT]

3 hours ago, Not_a_Number said:

You’re right. Someone should think this through. But frankly, getting cases under control has fewer of all of those costs. 

In NY, summer felt like a bit of reprieve. We got all of our medical stuff done while cases were low. We went to the dentist. It definitely made things easier to bear and the idea of winter less forbidding. 

If NY could have controlled borders at all, I’d have felt even better.

Vermont too - would have been nice for states to "bubble together"! 

[Not_a_Number]

Just now, AmandaVT said:

Vermont too - would have been nice for states to "bubble together"! 

It would. Especially since some states obviously have a summer advantage (all of the Northeast) and some states obviously don't (the Southern states with really hot summers.) So it doesn't make sense to have mixing during those times. But the states can't enforce that.