Trump considers reopening the economy over health experts objections

[Chris in VA]

my thoughts...(references ctrolley problem" in philosophy)

 

[EmseB]

37 minutes ago, Sneezyone said:

 

This isn't a localized, natural disaster. Big difference.

Except, in a sense it is because the resources needed are going to vary widely by state and even by city. It is integral to have state and locals requesting up and not the feds controlling everything and pushing down. Having the federal government, for example, try to secure and distribute PPE for the entire country would be non sensical and likely waste a lot of resources. The needs in NYC are very different than Cheyenne, and those needs are going to change overt time. This has to be managed locally and by state with the feds assisting. It can't be the feds telling states and locals what to do based on nationwide stats or numbers.

[Sneezyone]

3 minutes ago, EmseB said:

Except, in a sense it is because the resources needed are going to vary widely by state and even by city. It is integral to have state and locals requesting up and not the feds controlling everything and pushing down. Having the federal government, for example, try to secure and distribute PPE for the entire country would be non sensical and likely waste a lot of resources. The needs in NYC are very different than Cheyenne, and those needs are going to change overt time. This has to be managed locally and by state with the feds assisting. It can't be the feds telling states and locals what to do based on nationwide stats or numbers.

 

None of those assets can be effectively used when managed on a state by state basis. A coordinated federal effort to monitor and test means you can allocate resources to where they're needed rather than leave them sitting in BFE where they are NOT needed. A national approach is particularly necessary when resources are scarce.

[Sneezyone]

4 minutes ago, Arctic Mama said:

The less localized the response the less immediate and effective it tends to be.  I’m not speaking into a vacuum, I have a family member making high level decisions on the response to this for my previous state in her elected office.  When you involve the fed in anything but a requisition process role it starts getting very slow and inefficient compared to what can get rolled out by a legislature or even a city.  The state HHS departments are also the ones best able to martial their local resources and people, it’s much more efficient.  And they are the ones going up the chain to the feds when they have identified a specific need.

Federally, research and sometimes extra grants for states which are having a crisis shortfall is a good response.  They really have very little in the day to day outside of that. Your best response is on a state level.  That’s like saying the EU should control boots on the ground health policy in Finland and can do it better than the Finnish government.  It’s too far removed from the resources and needs of the specific facilities to really do much good aside from make some crisis resources available.

 

Federal supplies don't supplant the requirement for local resources. They supplement them and serve as a backstop for unforeseen and MAJOR emergencies, be they national or otherwise, that local people cannot reasonably accommodate. This is a classic example. We have emergency provisions within federal law that allow the suspension of lengthy bid and requisition requirements. We also have a strategic national stockpile that is intended for these purposes too. The most important part, however, of the federal government is the national coordinating role. That cannot be abdicated or pawned off on states. Grants don't help when resources are scarce and states are fighting a global supply shortage. We have to marshal and distribute the resources within our OWN country. The feds are the only ones who can do that.

Edited March 24, 2020 by Sneezyone

[ktgrok]

3 hours ago, 8FillTheHeart said:

What I cannot get past is we have disaster response teams and supposed homeland security task forces at both the state and federal levels who had months warning that this virus existed. Why all the scrambling now? Why were medical supplies/gear not ordered/sanctioned when numbers in Wuhan went from 42 to over 1000 in a couple of days? (I ordered powdered milk and eggs at that pt bc I suspected it would be heading our way and I wanted emergency style rations.) Goodness, if I thought to do that for my family, what the heck were professionslly trained emergency-focused task forces doing to prepare?

We are a country that is teasing at a shutdown with some complying, some not. We were caught with obviously zero forethought toward equipping our medical personnel for what was coming. The lack of competent leadership abounds at all levels across the entire country at every level.

Well, we kind of got rid of the pandemic team...

[Terabith]

My biggest concern is states being told to bid against each other and the federal government for ventilators and critical supplies.  That's deeply unfair to smaller, poorer, more vulnerable states.

[Terabith]

And also, if the federal government isn't going to provide ventilators to the states, why the heck are they bidding against states????  What do they need them for!

[Terabith]

Just now, square_25 said:

Wait, are they? 

Yes!  

[Sneezyone]

1 minute ago, Terabith said:

Yes!  

 

I can speculate on the reasons for that (profits>people, credit/kudos>cost) but that wouldn't be kind to dear leader.

[Wheres Toto]

Does every single state have a factory/company that can be converted to produce the needed supplies?   I would think most factories will provide for their local state first, then offer excess to other states.  So any state that doesn't have that factory capacity is screwed?

And the whole rich states do better than poor states doesn't seem right either.

[Terabith]

https://www.nbcchicago.com/news/local/pritzker-says-illinois-is-competing-for-ventilators-masks-in-coronavirus-crisis/2242883/

[Sneezyone]

2 minutes ago, Arctic Mama said:

Can you tell me how to pop those out faster at present than the step ups already occurring?  Realistically, there is always a lag when demand shoots up, especially when it is a global shortage and production is overseas and in disarray.  NY state will do what Alaska and Arkansas and NM and every other state will do, which is work with expanding existing equipment (like cutting safety factors and daisy   chaining multiple patients off a single vent) while factories churn out at many ventilators as they can.  It’s not a capital issue or even a reg issue.  It’s just time.

 

We will need masks for MONTHS to come, not weeks. By providing guaranteed payments/markets for masks the feds can get sewing and manufacturing companies on the stick, producing in volumes FAR greater than any state, for less money per item. It's all about volume. What we don't have is time to mess around.

Edited March 24, 2020 by Sneezyone

[Sneezyone]

Just now, Arctic Mama said:

Masks are interesting.  The issue seems to be the challenge in actually making them properly, more than a resource issue.  It’s being responded to, but last I saw there were manufacturing challenges to some of this, too.

 

Masks are not interesting. They are critical weapons in this fight. The fabrics are largely made overseas. Making the fabrics here, AGAIN, would require a guaranteed market, huge volume order, and the invocation of the federal act in question. Sewing skills are plentiful here.

[Sneezyone]

1 minute ago, square_25 said:

I don't think that's right. Right now it's mostly that not enough people are making them. Quite a few garment companies have been signing up to make them, so it seems like it's just a volume issue. 

 

It's not just a volume issue. The raw materials, the non-woven fabric, isn't easy to come by either. Many of those being made by companies that "volunteer" are not being made with the right fabrics. The factories/workshops aren't sterile, etc.

[Wheres Toto]

3 minutes ago, square_25 said:

Which is why NYS is actually less screwed than other states. It's rich and it has lots of stuff in-state. 

And what happens when this wave hits a poorer, rural state?? Then what?? They are continue to continue bidding against the richer states? That's going to cost a lot of lives. 

I'm glad I'm here in NJ at this time, and that NY, NJ and CT are working together on this.  

[Sneezyone]

Just now, Arctic Mama said:

Surgical masks are not the issue so my cat N95.

Here is one article discussing it.

https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/03/16/814929294/covid-19-has-caused-a-shortage-of-face-masks-but-theyre-surprisingly-hard-to-mak

 

ALL masks are in short supply, the N95s are tough to make but we can make them here. The ones made here are not approved for medical use hence the request for a liability waiver. As the article says, raw materials are in short supply worldwide. States can't outbid COUNTRIES that are also bidding for these things.

 

[Sneezyone]

1 minute ago, Where's Toto? said:

I'm glad I'm here in NJ at this time, and that NY, NJ and CT are working together on this.  

 

Regional coordination is certainly better than this every state for itself nonsense.

[Corraleno]

The idea that every state should be buying the full number of ventilators they need to cover an extreme spike during a global pandemic is patently absurd. There are not enough ventilators in the world for that, and there won't be even if every factory capable of manufacturing them goes full tilt for the next several months. It would also be a huge waste of resources to have hundreds of thousands of ventilators that are only occasionally needed on a short-term basis sitting in 50 state warehouses the rest of the time. Cuomo is asking that the 20,000 ventilators in the federal stockpile that are currently going unused be sent to NY, and when they get past their infection peak they will send them on to the next state that needs them.

People who are arguing that the federal government was never meant to supply these things are ignoring the fact that these stockpiles EXIST and they exist for a reason. The federal government just went through a large-scale simulation designed to find out how well they could manage this exact scenario — why would they do that if the obvious answer was that they have no responsibility for this, it's all on the states???

[Sneezyone]

This is bizarro world. It's really too bad that so many Korean and WWII vets and adults are dead and dying. They have been through this. They know how it's been done and how it CAN be done. We are ridiculously spoiled and foolish.

Edited March 24, 2020 by Sneezyone

[Corraleno]

2 minutes ago, Arctic Mama said:

I’m running so late, but @Corraleno the existing stockpile is being distributed.  There are limits because of the pool of state’s and territories projected to need them, though.  It’s not strictly first come first serve AFAIK.

Yes, the federal government is finally starting to do its job and distribute some of the ventilators that they have been stockpiling for this exact purpose. Hence the absurdity of the argument that this "isn't the Fed's job."

One would have hoped that someone in this administration, having read the Crimson Contagion report and having been briefed on the severity of the coming pandemic, would have made it a priority to examine the national stockpiles of PPE, ventilators, etc., to make sure they were adequate to meet the expected need. Instead we were told that CV19 was no big deal and we would have "zero" cases. We have over 50,000 cases and the numbers of confirmed cases and deaths are doubling every 4 days (every 2 days in NY). In 2 weeks, NY state alone is projected to be 10,000 ventilators short and most hospitals nationwide will be out of beds and PPE. Perfect time to "reopen" all businesses! 

 

[Paige]

The frustrating thing is that having the pandemic simulation completed last fall should have made us ultra-prepared. We should have had people seeing what was going on in China (there was plenty of news that something unprecedented was going on whether they lied or not) and saying they knew just what to do because of their recent experiences. Where were these people in Dec and Jan, and if they were speaking up, why didn't anyone listen to them? What's the point of simulations if they don't make our country better prepared for real events? We may as well cancel them all if this is representative of their value in real life.

As far as opening the economy and releasing the restrictions, we need the tests, masks, and ventilators ready to go first. None of the estimates I've seen have shown the large influx of masks or ventilators arriving before May. Why would we open things up before we are prepared for what's going to come? Once we are confident our hospitals have what they need to handle the surge in patients, open the economy asap. 

[ktgrok]

2 hours ago, Paige said:

The frustrating thing is that having the pandemic simulation completed last fall should have made us ultra-prepared. We should have had people seeing what was going on in China (there was plenty of news that something unprecedented was going on whether they lied or not) and saying they knew just what to do because of their recent experiences. Where were these people in Dec and Jan, and if they were speaking up, why didn't anyone listen to them? What's the point of simulations if they don't make our country better prepared for real events? We may as well cancel them all if this is representative of their value in real life.

As far as opening the economy and releasing the restrictions, we need the tests, masks, and ventilators ready to go first. None of the estimates I've seen have shown the large influx of masks or ventilators arriving before May. Why would we open things up before we are prepared for what's going to come? Once we are confident our hospitals have what they need to handle the surge in patients, open the economy asap. 

If you mean the roundtable simulation done around the time of the inauguration, my understanding is a large number of the people involved in the simulation no longer work in the white house - they were let go. This is one of the problems of having such high turnover in the administration. A lot of the people who have been there, done that, had the training, etc are gone. 

[Acadie]

Not sure if this was posted earlier--Bill Gates sides with medical experts--

https://www.vox.com/recode/2020/3/24/21192638/coronavirus-bill-gates-trump-reopen-business

[Corraleno]

21 minutes ago, Ktgrok said:

If you mean the roundtable simulation done around the time of the inauguration, my understanding is a large number of the people involved in the simulation no longer work in the white house - they were let go. This is one of the problems of having such high turnover in the administration. A lot of the people who have been there, done that, had the training, etc are gone. 

The Crimson Contagion simulation ran from January to August 2019, and the report was delivered in October, just weeks before coronavirus hit the news. It simulated a global pandemic based on a novel influenza virus that first occurred in China and was spread around the world by tourists on international flights. Wouldn't you think that the folks who had just completed that project would see all kinds of giant red flags when they started hearing about... a novel virus that started in China and was being spread around the world by tourists??? I mean, you literally couldn't have asked for better preparation — and yet they did nothing. 😤

The Crimson Contagion 2019 Functional Exercise included robust participation from federal, state, local, territorial, and tribal communities, as well as from private sector partners including the White House National Security Council. Participation included 19 federal departments and agencies, 12 states, 15 tribal nations and pueblos, 74 local health departments and coalition regions, 87 hospitals, and over 100 healthcare and public health private sector partners. 

[Lady Florida.]

8 hours ago, Corraleno said:

He has explicitly said he wants restrictions lifted by April 12th, insisting that people will continue voluntary social distancing and will protect the elderly. 

He also said that churches will be packed on Easter Sunday, which is horribly irresponsible coming from anyone in authority but especially the president.

[KungFuPanda]

4 hours ago, Chris in VA said:

my thoughts...(references ctrolley problem" in philosophy)

 

'Merica

[TechWife]

6 hours ago, Arctic Mama said:

Can you tell me how to pop those out faster at present than the step ups already occurring?  Realistically, there is always a lag when demand shoots up, especially when it is a global shortage and production is overseas and in disarray.  NY state will do what Alaska and Arkansas and NM and every other state will do, which is work with expanding existing equipment (like cutting safety factors and daisy   chaining multiple patients off a single vent) while factories churn out at many ventilators as they can.  It’s not a capital issue or even a reg issue.  It’s just time.
 

I wish I remembered where I saw the article, but it was specifically with one of the main vent manufacturers, discussing their previous demand and how they were trying to meet the current, and some of the limits in terms of time and manpower.  It wasn’t a money problem, I think it was primarily sourcing and trying to make more of the equipment and robotics needed to have more production lines.  Again, much of that is in Japan and South Korea, and there is demand in every first world country.  The bottleneck is a reality, hence the whole purpose behind the nuking of our current economy and locking everyone down to allow that time to pass.

You seem to think the feds can wave magic wands beyond what’s already going on.  There are more limits of the situation that the power of Congress or the President’s will.  Even during WW2 there was a spooling up period to manufacture tanks and guns.  This could be improved, but when your issues are raw materials, specialty machines to manufacture specific parts, and trying to obtain those internationally because you outsourced that tech twenty years ago it never developed it at all and the patents are Japanese... there is more to it than someone ignoring or not responding to NY’s plight. 
 

Now, I need to go do things.  

Vents aren’t complicated machines. There are some really smart people out there who could figure out how to refit a factory and get it working. The problem is funding. When fully funded an emergency retooling could take place with speed and accuracy if the right people were leading the project. At that same time raw materials are ordered and staged to the extent possible and workers are also being trained using virtual learning tools, which would decrease the amount of time needed  when the factory comes online. But , in order for this to happen someone has to be in charge and there has to be money coming in for start up costs. No one is inventing new technology - it is completely doable but people are balking at taking responsibility and at spending mmey. This isn’t some pie in the sky moon shot - this is doing what we already know how to do.. 

 

[kiwik]

10 hours ago, DoraBora said:

True that.  It sort of feels like it is, in my county and city, anyway.

Our country is closing in less than 3 hours.  Total lockdoen except those deemed essential.  A nationwide state of emergency has been declared and the army will reinforce the police if needed.  We are expected to stay home for a month unless carrying out permitted activities.

 

[lewelma]

kiwik, did you get the emergency activation on your phone? I was pretty impressed that even my ds home from MIT with an American phone number got the call while he was hiking in the bush behind our house. 

I saw 92% approval of the total lockdown.  My neighbor said that before parliament adjourned that they made a committee headed by the opposition party to monitor the government with all these extra powers.  I'm impressed with that also. 

[kiwik]

I left my phone in the car and when I went to get it the phone was talking.  It was impressive and it did make the situation seem extremely real or maybe more surreal I; couldn't decide.  I feel like I am in some sort of dystopian story.  I approve but unfortunately my boss doesn't and keeps trying to claim I am essential.  Luckily his new girlfriend has a couple of little kids and a much more responsible approach.  My boss thinks he is bullet proof which is what makes him good at his job. I just applied for support for both of us so hopefully that will calm him.  The support is about the same as my income anyway.  Ds12 is enraged that they have made the holidays part of the shutdown.  His birthday is on Monday and I hadn't had time to shop except one thing.

[kiwik]

My boss is an anti Jacinda person.  Personally I am glad it is her in charge but she must be exhausted, a baby, a terrorist attach, a volcanic eruption and a pandemic in 2.5 years is a bit extreme.

Edited March 25, 2020 by kiwik

[Sneezyone]

With unemployment at MUCH higher levels being offered for four months, we might have a fighting chance of securing more compliance. The improvements in oversight and low/moderate income bennies are not insignificant. https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/489219-schumer-government-will-pay-four-months-of-full-salary-for-furloughed-workers

Edited March 25, 2020 by Sneezyone