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PSA: Keep your eye on Hurricane Irma


Guinevere
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Thank you. She posted something about their decision to stay and I know she knows her situation better than I do. You're right, it's hard to watch from a distance!

 

Oh I haven't expressed it to her. She definitely doesn't need that! I've offered only support and love. She's dealing with expressed anger from her mom and I can tell it's stressing her out more. I hadn't thought of it that way, I definitely feel helpless. 

 

I had to look up what the zones meant, we don't live anywhere near a hurricane area. Zone E. So it sounds like she must be on higher ground. She said they have plenty of food and water, their house is boarded up, and they are at a relatives house (same neighborhood so I'm assuming same zone.) 

 

 

Thank you all. I'm going to try to take a deep breath and chill out. I have anxiety, so I'm sure I let my mind run away too much. 

 

Zone E is pretty safe from any surge unless you see a guy with a huge boat and two of each animal...  The only worry will be the wind and trees or other falling/flying objects as well as integrity of her building.

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Update from Ft. Myers....we still have power but many friends do not. Eye is moving towards us and will be here by 6:00pm. Friends evacuated to our house this morning -- they are in a storm surge evacuation area...

 

Evacuation decisions are tough...in Katrina we evacuated (thankfully!) and the stress of being away and feeling so helpless...for months afterward, was so difficult. My friends who have evacuated are stressed about homes and friends and family here...friends and family here are stressed to be here. There is no "good" situation in this.

 

We made the decision to stay. The governor said if you don't have to leave, don't. If you are in a high dry area, stay and hunker down...we did. Not gonna lie, the stress over the last few days has been insane. I don't think I could do this to my kids or myself again. Next time we evacuate. And we are in evacuation zone D, no risk of storm surge, house built in 2006 so built post-Charley so can in theory withstand cat 5 winds...we have the entire house boarded up with storm shutters...

 

I think emotional wellbeing has to be taken into account as well in the evacuation decision...

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If you were going down for Thanksgiving, you aren't responsible because you were in the northbound lanes afterward and probably gawking at all of the traffic heading south.  Many snowbirds head south after Thanksgiving (or Christmas) and the difference in traffic is very noticeable.  Then add those of us "youngsters" in FL who headed north to be with family for the holiday and joined the snowbirds heading south afterward.

We have went down there for a few years now at Thanksgiving. We typically leave at noon from Philly on the Saturday before. Then we get down there before noon the following day. We leave on the Monday/Tuesday after Thanksgiving. 

 

This year we had planned to go away from I-95 as I was stuck in 6 hours of traffic in DC in July this year coming home. So I am avoiding DC at all costs! However I need to wait to see if my mom has a house before I make any thoughts of arrangements now. Never thought I would say that! 

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Thank you. She posted something about their decision to stay and I know she knows her situation better than I do. You're right, it's hard to watch from a distance!

 

Oh I haven't expressed it to her. She definitely doesn't need that! I've offered only support and love. She's dealing with expressed anger from her mom and I can tell it's stressing her out more. I hadn't thought of it that way, I definitely feel helpless. 

 

I had to look up what the zones meant, we don't live anywhere near a hurricane area. Zone E. So it sounds like she must be on higher ground. She said they have plenty of food and water, their house is boarded up, and they are at a relatives house (same neighborhood so I'm assuming same zone.) 

 

 

Thank you all. I'm going to try to take a deep breath and chill out. I have anxiety, so I'm sure I let my mind run away too much. 

Only Zone A and B were to evacuate. So she is doing good staying home. 

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Update from Ft. Myers....we still have power but many friends do not. Eye is moving towards us and will be here by 6:00pm. Friends evacuated to our house this morning -- they are in a storm surge evacuation area...

 

Evacuation decisions are tough...in Katrina we evacuated (thankfully!) and the stress of being away and feeling so helpless...for months afterward, was so difficult. My friends who have evacuated are stressed about homes and friends and family here...friends and family here are stressed to be here. There is no "good" situation in this.

 

We made the decision to stay. The governor said if you don't have to leave, don't. If you are in a high dry area, stay and hunker down...we did. Not gonna lie, the stress over the last few days has been insane. I don't think I could do this to my kids or myself again. Next time we evacuate. And we are in evacuation zone D, no risk of storm surge, house built in 2006 so built post-Charley so can in theory withstand cat 5 winds...we have the entire house boarded up with storm shutters...

 

I think emotional wellbeing has to be taken into account as well in the evacuation decision...

 

I understand completely.

 

I think you made a good decision with your circumstances, but I still understand completely.  

 

Best wishes for the upcoming hours and days afterward.  :grouphug:

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ATL area schools are closed Monday and Tuesday. We are north of Atlanta and brought in all the patio furniture, laid down the basketball backboard, and moved all the planters up against the house.

 

My parents are currently high and dry in Port Saint Lucie. Their evacuation was lifted, but they stayed at their friends' house inland. They are getting a bit of cabin fever. They did peek out the front door and saw no flooding. We signed them up for Netflix so they could watch on their iPads because the only thing on tv is storm coverage, which they are understandably over at the moment. Lots of wind. Lots of flooding, but not where they are.

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 She's worried her place will be looted (she only owns a tv and an old model playstation, so nothing much, but still) 

 

If it helps there are National Guard troops ready and positioned to be on the ground to prevent looting. Also, in many neighborhoods you'll be required to show ID that actually has your address on it before being let in. 

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USVI update:  I went in to tell my wife something and she has CNN en EspaĂƒÂ±ol on the TV. There was a segment from St. Thomas of U.S. Navy Helicopters evacuating 46 patients from St. Thomas and St. John.

 

They wheeled them up to the helicopters in their wheelchairs, put helmets on them with ear protection, and put them inside the helicopters.  As with St. Martin, they are taking care of people with medical issues first, and eventually will get to everyone. Time consuming processes and the ships/planes/helicopters/personnel are spread thin, coming so soon after Harvey.  I assume they will either take them to a warship with Medical facilities aboard, or, directly to PR.  However, they might also take them to St. Croix?

 

Fingers crossed and praying for everyone in the path of Irma. 

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If it helps there are National Guard troops ready and positioned to be on the ground to prevent looting. Also, in many neighborhoods you'll be required to show ID that actually has your address on it before being let in. 

 

That is *critical* after an emergency. On St. Martin, they are waiting for the French government and the Dutch government to send in troops, to try to stop the looting and mayhem there. 

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Update from Ft. Myers....we still have power but many friends do not. Eye is moving towards us and will be here by 6:00pm. Friends evacuated to our house this morning -- they are in a storm surge evacuation area...

 

Evacuation decisions are tough...in Katrina we evacuated (thankfully!) and the stress of being away and feeling so helpless...for months afterward, was so difficult. My friends who have evacuated are stressed about homes and friends and family here...friends and family here are stressed to be here. There is no "good" situation in this.

 

We made the decision to stay. The governor said if you don't have to leave, don't. If you are in a high dry area, stay and hunker down...we did. Not gonna lie, the stress over the last few days has been insane. I don't think I could do this to my kids or myself again. Next time we evacuate. And we are in evacuation zone D, no risk of storm surge, house built in 2006 so built post-Charley so can in theory withstand cat 5 winds...we have the entire house boarded up with storm shutters...

 

I think emotional wellbeing has to be taken into account as well in the evacuation decision...

I totally get it.   You can't evacuate the entire state.  We are not in an evacuation zone, have a concrete block house, our roof is only 7 years old (and was replaced to post-Charley and post-Andrew code), and we have windows rated for 140 mph impact.   It's still a gut-wrenching decision, but we made what we thought was the best choice for our family.   About half of my friends have left and half are staying.   Lots of people here have left and have no idea what they'll be coming home to.  Those of us who chose to stay have no idea what we'll wake up to tomorrow morning.   I'm thankful for every hour we have of air conditioning, power to cook, a working refrigerator/washer/dryer, and internet connection.   It makes other stuff that I thought I'd be doing this week (...like, should we upgrade our older iPhones since they're announcing new models this week?) seem so petty and insignificant.

 

So far, so good here in Tampa.  My kids are currently binge watching Outrageous Acts of Science while we still have power.   We've had drizzle and a little bit of wind for most of the day, which has recently picked up to what I'd call blowing rain - maybe 15-20 mph right now.   Conditions are supposed to become bad around 7 pm and the worst for us will be between 1-3 am.   Fortunately, it looks like it will be weaker than they originally thought by the time it gets to us - a weak category 2 rather than a 3 or 4.  

 

I'm praying for those of you further south.   It's going to be a long night.

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I talked to my civil engineer dh about concrete buildings. He said concretes very strong for support but horrible in situations where it needs to flex. So in the islands, the wind giving lots of wobble to concrete structures over a long period of time, the concrete starts to break down.

 

 

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I talked to my civil engineer dh about concrete buildings. He said concretes very strong for support but horrible in situations where it needs to flex. So in the islands, the wind giving lots of wobble to concrete structures over a long period of time, the concrete starts to break down.

 

 

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What is best? I know lots of islands have a grip of concrete houses and I've always wondered about that.

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I cried a bit just now. First words coming in from the keys areas near where the storm hit. They are requesting mortuary teams. I don;t know what else anyone could have done/ All relatives/friends/Governor Scott/EMS everybody was telling them to leave. But it still breaks your heart.

Where have you seen this? I haven't been able to find anything.

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I talked to my civil engineer dh about concrete buildings. He said concretes very strong for support but horrible in situations where it needs to flex. So in the islands, the wind giving lots of wobble to concrete structures over a long period of time, the concrete starts to break down.

 

 

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The structure of our house is concrete and in between that are structural bricks. It is very rare that we get strong winds here. We do get earthquakes (rare, but on occasion...) and the house is designed to be seismic resistant and it can flex a lot.  Thanks for asking your DH about this!

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Cell phone towers are down in the keys. My family sent word at 8 this morning that they were safe so far but nothing since.

 

There was a homeless woman on the news sweeping the streets and the reporter kept trying to get her to go to a shelter. She refused to go :(

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I was very frustrated with all the spaghetti diagrams posted everywhere online.  They were very misleading and often included information that had no impact on the current hurricane (past hurricane tracks, etc).  I think way to many people were focused on a particular line, versus the overall forecast.  The European model has been predicting a west coast hit for days, and that is what we see play out here, but everyone is an armchair meteorologist these days without having an understand of what they are even looking at.  I think that was one of the reasons many later forecasts quit putting up anything but a warning area, that pretty much included all of Florida.  I'm hoping for the best for everyone impacted by the storms.  Most of our extended family evacuated if they were advised to do so, the rest are as prepared as they can be.

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I am starting to calm down a bit. Cat 2 storms I don't really worry about. They are strong, but not flattening. Time will tell but it seems like this storm is breaking up a bit. 

 

Prayers for those of you that are in the south part of the state. 

 

If this storm happens to go east of Tampa (it seems to be trending northeast), it will be much better for your area.

 

Decreasing in strength is also a blessing.

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Approximately one hour ago, I went in to ask my wife about Lunch. She was still watching CNN en EspaĂƒÂ±ol.  Their Journalist on Collins Avenue, in Miami Beach (I think around 24th street?) was walking around and showing what it was like. Then he went to a High Rise Condo, between the ocean and Collins Avenue. They cook with electricity, which I believe is much safer, if one is in a building with many other families, and they had no power. They had no air conditioning.  The question asked from Atlanta was, "Did they consider evacuating?".  One woman said that they had gone down there to take care of her 90 year old Father and that her Mother cannot walk.  They need care. A young man said he has a wife and a boy and animal(s) and they stayed. A number of them had pets and stayed for that reason. The building has a Generator, but it failed, after 5 minutes.  But, they seem to be safe and coping, up to this time.  

 

This morning I said something to DD about Irma and she said she has a "friend" on Twitter, in a special interest group, who is in Florida. Her parents are apparently in Key W est. They couldn't get gas to leave Key West...

 

So there are probably a lot of people who wanted to evacuate, but couldn't for some reason, and there are others for whom evacuation was not something they considered, because of elderly parents with medical issues, etc.

 

Fingers crossed and praying for everyone in Irmas path. 

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It was on one of the news channels or Weather Channel. I have been switching channels. The person read out the message from the Emergency Management.

 

CNN reported one man died in Marathon, but from natural causes.  That's all I've heard.  They said that's all they had heard as of a few minutes ago.

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I was very frustrated with all the spaghetti diagrams posted everywhere online.  They were very misleading and often included information that had no impact on the current hurricane (past hurricane tracks, etc).  I think way to many people were focused on a particular line, versus the overall forecast.  The European model has been predicting a west coast hit for days, and that is what we see play out here, but everyone is an armchair meteorologist these days without having an understand of what they are even looking at.  I think that was one of the reasons many later forecasts quit putting up anything but a warning area, that pretty much included all of Florida.  I'm hoping for the best for everyone impacted by the storms.  Most of our extended family evacuated if they were advised to do so, the rest are as prepared as they can be.

 

The spaghetti models have actually been pretty close with the exception of a few outliers. The Euro model is the most accurate. The cone shows not where it's going to go but where it could go. I think people get caught up in thinking both the lines and the cones are exact forecasts. While they've improved dramatically even since Katrina, they're still not 100% accurate.

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Little PSA for those who, like us, have cut cable in favor of Roku & apps like Sling - the free CBSN (CBS News) app has been FAR better than, say, CNN for coverage.  They do a bit of national coverage and then cut to local CBS station weather coverage - far less prone to hyperbole, panic, or people in Miami with sprinkles and STILL palm trees behind them screaming that they had never seen anything like this before (I'm looking at you yesterday morning, CNN!!!).

 

Also they are less likely to panic about things it is safe to do in Florida (and only in Florida) - like drive through slowly moving swamp water. And they understand things like tides.

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What is best? I know lots of islands have a grip of concrete houses and I've always wondered about that.

Another thing to consider is that the design is very different than the construction. How well were they inspected? To what standard were they actually built? Especially in countries that are small or poor or have dodgy infrastructure oftentimes the written code and planning is good but the consistency from the batch plant or the install is poor. If the mix was weak, too watery, the pour had voids that weren't vibrated out, or the aggregate segregated? Very different performance from what the same plans would yield in, say, Port St Lucie or Orlando.

 

Also sometimes concrete means CMU blocks, and in places like Haiti they're often ungrouted or have no or insufficient rebar. Those are rubbish with seismic or debris/storm surge impact. Even in municipalities in the Midwest a surprising amount of brick and CMU stem walls are incorrectly installed, and it's not a plan issue.

 

- from the PE/SE licensed husband

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I talked to my civil engineer dh about concrete buildings. He said concretes very strong for support but horrible in situations where it needs to flex. So in the islands, the wind giving lots of wobble to concrete structures over a long period of time, the concrete starts to break down.

 

 

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I was chatting with DH more about this, because we are geeks ;)

 

His local structural engineers association had their little convention this last week in Columbus and discussed a lot of this in detail. Concrete structures tend to do very well on wind events but are trickier to stiffen up enough for seismic, especially if they're multistory buildings. It's so hard to say but we will be watching with interest as the forensic engineering reports come our way.

 

Generally speaking though, concrete is a better choice for wind and water events and wood is easier to work with for seismic ductility. You don't need as much ductility in wind events, even hurricanes.

 

This is a good little paper on wind damage as opposed to wave damage, though t is aimed at stick frame homes - and the structural damage of the hurricane will vary wildly depending on which kind of event the building sees. It seems like most of the difficulty in hurricane design is because they are so variable in the potential impact they can have on a structure, and it's challenging and more costly to try and design 'against everything'.

 

https://ams.confex.com/ams/pdfpapers/75154.pdf

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I was chatting with DH more about this, because we are geeks ;)

 

His local structural engineers association had their little convention this last week in Columbus and discussed a lot of this in detail. Concrete structures tend to do very well on wind events but are trickier to stiffen up enough for seismic, especially if they're multistory buildings. It's so hard to say but we will be watching with interest as the forensic engineering reports come our way.

 

Generally speaking though, concrete is a better choice for wind and water events and wood is easier to work with for seismic ductility. You don't need as much ductility in wind events, even hurricanes.

 

This is a good little paper on wind damage as opposed to wave damage, though t is aimed at stick frame homes - and the structural damage of the hurricane will vary wildly depending on which kind of event the building sees. It seems like most of the difficulty in hurricane design is because they are so variable in the potential impact they can have on a structure, and it's challenging and more costly to try and design 'against everything'.

 

https://ams.confex.com/ams/pdfpapers/75154.pdf

 

We are in a Tropical Valley where Seismic activity is common, but not frequent. When our house was designed (2003) it was to the latest Seismic standards at that time. As I recall, there were 2 ways the Civil Engineer could do it. In our case, I believe the absolute worst case is that the outside walls are designed to fall outwards into the yard. I don't remember what the other option is.

 

Our house must weigh hundreds or thousands of tons, but when there is a very strong Earthquake, it does move. There is flexibility designed into it.  You can feel it swaying, as you would in a home in the USA built from little pieces of lumber.

 

You touched on something truly important earlier and that is whether or not the Contractor(s) and their employees actually build the house the way it was designed.  With the Materials that were specified and in that quantity.

 

We have seen, here in Colombia, examples of what you allude to, where either the Design was severely flawed or the construction materials and how they were used was not correct and that led to condemned or collapsing buildings.  There was a case several years ago, in Medellin, high rise apartment buildings, and as I recall one or 2 of them had to be abandoned. The apartments were new and not inexpensive...

 

I found it strange, after a severe earthquake in 2004 that most buildings here (Cali, Colombia) had no damage, but that some buildings had severe damage. Bad design? Cutting short on the materials? 

 

They are getting more serious about that here and the Engineers and Contractors who are responsible can go to Prison, if they were negligent. 

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The U.S. Navy is sending an Aircraft Carrier and 2 other warships to the Florida Keys. The situation there is not good. Fingers crossed and prayers for anyone who is there.

 

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I have a friend on that aircraft carrier. This happens to be her home town. I am grateful for the federal and state response. Our governor has impressed the heck out of me.

 

Devastation state wide will be quite a mess to clean up...

 

Things are really bad in Fort Myers. While we are super grateful for no storm surge, wind did major damage and many canals and creeks in our area along with just rain water flooded many homes and even more streets. a few block away from us were accessing their homes with boats and jet skis.

Massive power outages. Some got it back yesterday but other areas they said "weeks." As I sit in the dark with no power and no ac...ugh

We have roof damage. Leaking windows during the storm. So we are very thankful. It could have been much worse for us. But for many of our friends-- it is worse.

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DO NOT ASSIGN YOUR INSURANCE BENEFITS TO ANY CONTRACTOR THAT TRIES TO GET YOU TO DO THAT!  I just watched a Video interview the AG of the State of Florida did last night on FoxNews Channel.  She warned people not to do that. And not to do it without discussing it with your insurance company.

 

There will be a lot of con artists trying to milk the victims of Harvey and Irma. 

 

She said Home Depot is sending a Convoy of 80 trucks to S FL, with Generators, Water and other supplies.  

 

Other companies are also helping.

 

Fingers crossed and praying for the victims of Harvey and Irma.

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If anyone knows people on St. Martin and you can communicate with them, please strongly suggest to them that they get off of St. Martin ASAP. It is extremely dangerous there now.  This article is online today (12 September 2017) about the lack of security there at this time:

 

http://www.foxnews.com/world/2017/09/12/looters-paradise-lawlessness-reportedly-rampant-in-caribbean-islands-devastated-by-hurricane-irma.html

 

Obviously, getting off of that island, at this time, is  very problematic.

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If anyone knows people on St. Martin and you can communicate with them, please strongly suggest to them that they get off of St. Martin ASAP. It is extremely dangerous there now. This article is online today (12 September 2017) about the lack of security there at this time:

 

http://www.foxnews.com/world/2017/09/12/looters-paradise-lawlessness-reportedly-rampant-in-caribbean-islands-devastated-by-hurricane-irma.html

 

Obviously, getting off of that island, at this time, is very problematic.

I'm so sad and horrified about St Martin. We love it there.

 

We have lifetime family friends who live on Tortola, and cannot get info on them. I am so, so worried.

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FINALLY got word from our family down in Key West via payphone. They are fine, their new house has a little water damage, but nothing major. The roof is off of the mobile home where they're currently living though. They said as far as they know, no fatalities are rumored down there.

 

My MIL's trailer in Key largo looks pretty much as she left it. Crazy. The water is really high but it's up on stilts so she may not even have any flooding.

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FINALLY got word from our family down in Key West via payphone. They are fine, their new house has a little water damage, but nothing major. The roof is off of the mobile home where they're currently living though. They said as far as they know, no fatalities are rumored down there.

 

My MIL's trailer in Key largo looks pretty much as she left it. Crazy. The water is really high but it's up on stilts so she may not even have any flooding.

So glad everyone is safe!

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I'm so sad and horrified about St Martin. We love it there.

 

We have lifetime family friends who live on Tortola, and cannot get info on them. I am so, so worried.

 

I hope they can stop the mayhem on St. Martin and soon.  And, that your friends on Tortola are OK.   I googled Tortola and possibly this article will be of interest to you:

 

https://antiguaobserver.com/press-release-liat-assesses-airport-operations-into-st-maarten-and-tortola/

 

NOTE: There is probably no U.S. Consulate on Tortola and I am almost positive there is not one on St. Martin (I think I read that during the past few days).

 

I hope your friends on Tortola are registered with the U.S. State Department. I am assuming they are U.S. Citizens?

 

If they are U.S. Citizens and they can get to Puerto Rico, they will be OK.   If they cannot get to PR, if they can get to US VI, they can get help there and hopefully get transportation to PR.

 

Many people in many places in need of help from Harvey and Irma and Jose and Katia

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Thanks for that article, Lanny. I had not seen that one.

 

I did watch a segment on the news, and a man on Tortola was saying he thinks they won't restore power this year. :( The photos were heartbreaking, like so many islands.

 

My friends are older, in their early 80s. They own a home there, but are US citizens. I hope they have already made it to PR, and that we will hear something soon. They usually head this way, to our area, every September, at the end of the month, so I'm hopeful that we will hear something soon. But worried, and feel pretty helpless.

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Thanks for that article, Lanny. I had not seen that one.

 

I did watch a segment on the news, and a man on Tortola was saying he thinks they won't restore power this year. :( The photos were heartbreaking, like so many islands.

 

My friends are older, in their early 80s. They own a home there, but are US citizens. I hope they have already made it to PR, and that we will hear something soon. They usually head this way, to our area, every September, at the end of the month, so I'm hopeful that we will hear something soon. But worried, and feel pretty helpless.

 

From Tortola it should be easier for them to get to US VI by boat, if not to PR by boat. 

 

Fortunately, they are not on Saint Martin...  i just read this article which also mentions B VI which apparently has Security issues too...

:

http://www.foxnews.com/world/2017/09/12/looters-paradise-lawlessness-reportedly-rampant-in-caribbean-islands-devastated-by-hurricane-irma.html

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Thanks for that article, Lanny. I had not seen that one.

 

I did watch a segment on the news, and a man on Tortola was saying he thinks they won't restore power this year. :( The photos were heartbreaking, like so many islands.

 

My friends are older, in their early 80s. They own a home there, but are US citizens. I hope they have already made it to PR, and that we will hear something soon. They usually head this way, to our area, every September, at the end of the month, so I'm hopeful that we will hear something soon. But worried, and feel pretty helpless.

 

OK.   I googled. There isn't a U.S. Consulate in B VI.    I assume this was written before Irma struck...

 

https://bb.usembassy.gov/u-s-consular-officer-hold-appointments-u-s-citizens-british-virgin-islands/

 

I am hoping that your friends are registered with the U.S. State Department.   If so, they will know that your friends are there.  If not, your friends are completely  on their own. If the U.S. State Department knows that your friends are there, hopefully they and others can be evacuated, by U.S. Military.

 

If I was in their shoes, I would try to get to PR.  At the least, I would try to get from B VI to US VI.

 

If they are without power and if the Security situation is dangerous, they should leave, ASAP.

 

The U.S. Military has apparently evacuated about 1200 of the 6000 or so U.S. Citizens who were on St. Martin. I hope they can get more of them out of there, ASAP. Very dangerous...

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Thanks for that article, Lanny. I had not seen that one.

 

I did watch a segment on the news, and a man on Tortola was saying he thinks they won't restore power this year. :( The photos were heartbreaking, like so many islands.

 

My friends are older, in their early 80s. They own a home there, but are US citizens. I hope they have already made it to PR, and that we will hear something soon. They usually head this way, to our area, every September, at the end of the month, so I'm hopeful that we will hear something soon. But worried, and feel pretty helpless.

 

EMERGENCY EVACUATION INFORMATION FOR U.S. CITIZENS IN EASTERN CARIBBEAN. This was posted on State.Gov approximately one hour ago...  Note the reference to their Hurricane Irma Crisis Page...

 

https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/news/HurricaneIrma.html

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